Historical Means Research Articles

Evidence of climate-driven regime shifts in the Aegean Sea's demersal resources: A study spanning six decades.

Climate change (CC) can alter the configuration of marine ecosystems; however, ecosystem response and resilience to change are usually case‐specific. The effect of CC on the demersal resources of the Aegean Sea (east Mediterranean Sea) was investigated during the past six decades applying a combination of multivariate analysis, non‐additive modeling and the Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework. We focused on the study of: (i) the biological “system” complex, using proxies of biomass (landings per unit of capacity) for 12 demersal taxa, and (ii) the environmental “stressor” complex, described by 12 abiotic variables. Pronounced changes have occurred in both the environmental and biological system over the studied period. The majority of the environmental stressors exhibited strikingly increasing trends (temperature, salinity, primary production indices) with values started exceeding the global historical means during late 1980s‐early 1990s. It is suggested that the biological system exhibited a discontinuous response to CC, with two apparently climate‐induced regime shifts occurring in the past 25 years. There is evidence for two‐fold bifurcations and four tipping points in the system, forming a folded stability landscape with three basins of attraction. The shape of the stability landscape for the Aegean Sea's biological system suggests that while the initial state (1966–1991) was rather resilient to CC, absorbing two environmental step‐changes, this was not the case for the two subsequent ones (intermediate: 1992–2002; recent: 2003–2016). Given the current trajectory of environmental change, it is highly unlikely that the biological system will ever return to its pre‐1990s state, as it is entering areas of unprecedented climatic conditions and there is some evidence that the system may be even shifting toward a new state. Our approach and findings may be relevant to other marine areas of the Mediterranean and beyond, undergoing climate‐driven regime shifts, and can assist to their adaptive management.

Contributions to a Phenomenology of Historical Experience

AbstractIn this article, I propose a phenomenological account of historical experience, aimed at showing how people directly experience an event as being historical. After examining the only previous phenomenological account, David Carr’s Experience and History, and exploring its limits, I present my own contributions. My analysis focuses on the features of three main concepts or “moments”: eventfulness, substantiality, and narrativity. Considering the transcendent character of historical experience in the moment of eventfulness brings three features to light: initial incomprehensibility, need for categorization, and memorability. The concept of “substantiality,” on the other hand, shows how a historical event is felt as a moment of change. History is perceived as a structure shaping a community and whose unity seems irremediably shattered. Three features of historical change are explored: threatened identity, broken temporality, and emphasized belongingness. Lastly, I look at the decisive role of the gradual transformation of past beliefs and expectations as it occurs “narratively,” revealing a further two features of historical experience: narrative justifications and uncertain new normativity. Dealing narratively with a historical event means providing justifications for how it constitutes a new configuration of practices and ideas foreshadowing the now uncertain future.

The Rustenburg Church Conference of 1990: A call to the churches in South Africa after 30 years

The Rustenburg Church Conference took place in 1990, 30 years after the historic Cottesloe Church Consultation of 1960. Both these conferences had a huge influence on the history of the churches in South Africa. Thirty years after the Rustenburg Conference, this article suggests that the current context of South Africa calls for another church conference. To motivate this, the events and the declarations of the Rustenburg Church Conference of 1990 are revisited. Firstly, the article starts with a short overview on the organising of the conference. Secondly, it revisits the important confession of Prof. W.D. Jonker on apartheid and what he said on behalf of the Dutch Reformed Church and the Afrikaner people. It then recalls the lesser known but not less important declaration by the women at the conference before moving on to the main declaration, which was made after the conference. The question that is then asked is what this important historical event means for the current situation in South Africa. It is suggested that the churches in South Africa are called to take the initiative to organise a Lekgotla where churches and other civil organisations can come together to discuss and address the challenges in South Africa. Racism, poverty, education, violence against women and children and corruption are specifically named as issues that should be addressed. The article concludes that given the current situation in South Africa, the churches have arrived at another Kairos moment.Interdisciplinary implications: The research in this article challenges other disciplines in theology, sociology, education and law to join the quest for workable solutions. This should be done with specific reference to research on the current problematic events in South Africa, namely poverty, corruption, racism, violence against women and the needs of children and land issues.

Memories of Earth and Sea: An Ethnographic History of the Islands of Chiloé

Memories of Earth and Sea: An Ethnographic History of the Islands of Chiloé

КУЛЬТУРНЫЙ ТУРИЗМ КАК МЕХАНИЗМ ВОЗРОЖДЕНИЯ ВЕЛИКОГО ШЕЛКОВОГО ПУТИ

The study is devoted to the study of the form of the emergence of trade architecture of the cities of the Great Silk Road and their impact on the expansion of modern tourism in the region. Сaravanserais, trading cities (markets) of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan are outlined as examples. The analysis of the types of planning structure and the situation that divulged the attributes of the trade architecture of the Great Silk Road. In the process of research, a measure of saturation with cultural and historical means of the Great Silk Road regions was deliberated. And also reviewed modern projects for the improvement of this trade and geographical interrelation of cultures of the East and West. The extent of the Great Silk Road was 12 thousand kilometers, so few traders proceeded all the way along the Silk Road. Essentially, they tried to travel in shifts and trade-off goods somewhere halfway. Throughout the Great Silk Road in the cities and villages through which caravans elapsed, there were caravanserais (inns). They had hujras (“lounges”) for merchants and caravan staff, rooms for camels, horses, mules and donkeys, and needed fodder and facilities. Caravanserais were a place where it was attainable to sell and buy in bulk goods interesting to a merchant, and most importantly, to get hold of the latest commercial news and, above all, prices for goods.

Means and Extremes: Evaluation of a CMIP6 Multi-Model Ensemble in Reproducing Historical Climate Characteristics across Alberta, Canada

This study evaluates General Circulation Models (GCMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) for their ability in simulating historical means and extremes of daily precipitation (P), and daily maximum (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin). Models are evaluated against hybrid observations at 2255 sub-basins across Alberta, Canada using established statistical metrics for the 1983–2014 period. Three extreme indices including consecutive wet days (CWD), summer days (SD), and warm nights (WN) are defined based on the peak over the threshold approach and characterized by duration and frequency. The tail behaviour of extremes is evaluated using the Generalized Pareto Distribution. Regional evaluations are also conducted for four climate sub-regions across the study area. For both mean annual precipitation and mean annual daily temperature, most GCMs more accurately reproduce the observations in northern Alberta and follow a gradient toward the south having the poorest representation in the western mountainous area. Model simulations show statistically better performance in reproducing mean annual daily Tmax than Tmin, and in reproducing annual mean duration compared to the frequency of extreme indices across the province. The Kernel density curves of duration and frequency as simulated by GCMs show closer agreement to that of observations in the case of CWD. However, it is slightly (completely) overestimated (underestimated) by GCMs for warm nights (summer days). The tail behaviour of extremes indicates that GCMs may not incorporate some local processes such as the convective parameterization scheme in the simulation of daily precipitation. Model performances in each of the four sub-regions are quite similar to their performances at the provincial scale. Bias-corrected and downscaled GCM simulations using a hybrid approach show that the downscaled GCM simulations better represent the means and extremes of P characteristics compared to Tmax and Tmin. There is no clear indication of an improved tail behaviour of GPD based on downscaled simulations.

Projected impacts of climate change, bycatch, harvesting and predation on the New Zealand tītī (Ardenna grisea) population

Many factors have contributed to a decline in the tītī (sooty shearwater) Ardenna grisea population in Aotearoa New Zealand since at least the 1960s. The relative impacts of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) variation, bycatch, predation, and traditional harvesting by Rakiura Māori were recently estimated in a study fitting population models to data from the period 1976-2005. Annual mean SOI was related to both adult survival and fecundity. We used the results from that study to project abundance of tītī under a range of management strategies and future SOI scenarios, based on 41 climate models. Projections over the period 2019-2070 showed marked variation across the climate models. When the proportion of chicks harvested and the level of depredation by weka Gallirallus australis were set at their historical means and the proportion of birds killed in bycatch was set at an upper bound based on current estimates, the probability of a decline ranged from 0.30 to 1.00, across all climate models. When both bycatch and depredation by weka were set to zero, the probability of a decline ranged from 0.11 to 1.00, across all climate models. Our results suggest that future abundance of tītī in Aotearoa New Zealand will depend to a large extent on SOI conditions over the coming decades. As climate-model uncertainty makes reliable prediction of future SOI conditions difficult, adaptive management is likely to be the best option for Rakiura Māori, the kaitiaki (environmental guardians) of the Rakiura Tītī Islands, to maintain sustainable tītī harvests.

Pyric tree spatial patterning interactions in historical and contemporary mixed conifer forests, California, USA.

Tree spatial patterns in dry coniferous forests of the western United States, and analogous ecosystems globally, were historically aggregated, comprising a mixture of single trees and groups of trees. Modern forests, in contrast, are generally more homogeneous and overstocked than their historical counterparts. As these modern forests lack regular fire, pattern formation and maintenance is generally attributed to fire. Accordingly, fires in modern forests may not yield historically analogous patterns. However, direct observations on how selective tree mortality among pre‐existing forest structure shapes tree spatial patterns is limited. In this study, we (a) simulated fires in historical and contemporary counterpart plots in a Sierra Nevadan mixed‐conifer forest, (b) estimated tree mortality, and (c) examined tree spatial patterns of live trees before and after fire, and of fire‐killed trees. Tree mortality in the historical period was clustered and density‐dependent, because trees were aggregated and segregated by tree size before fire. Thus, fires maintained an aggregated distribution of tree groups. Tree mortality in the contemporary period was widespread, except for dispersed large trees, because most trees were a part of large, interconnected tree groups. Thus, postfire tree patterns were more uniform and devoid of moderately sized tree groups. Postfire tree patterns in the historical period, unlike the contemporary period, were within the historical range of variability identified for the western United States. This divergence suggests that decades of forest dynamics without significant disturbances have altered the historical means of pyric pattern formation. Our results suggest that ecological silvicultural treatments, such as forest restoration thinnings, which emulate qualities of historical forests may facilitate the reintroduction of fire as a means to reinforce forest structural heterogeneity.

Record-Breaking Increases in Arctic Solar Ultraviolet Radiation Caused by Exceptionally Large Ozone Depletion in 2020.

Measurements of solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) performed between January and June 2020 at 10 Arctic and subarctic locations are compared with historical observations. Differences between 2020 and prior years are also assessed with total ozone column and UVR data from satellites. Erythemal (sunburning) UVR is quantified with the UV Index (UVI) derived from these measurements. UVI data show unprecedently large anomalies, occurring mostly between early March and mid‐April 2020. For several days, UVIs observed in 2020 exceeded measurements of previous years by up to 140%. Historical means were surpassed by more than six standard deviations at several locations in the Arctic. In northern Canada, the average UVI for March was about 75% larger than usual. UVIs in April 2020 were elevated on average by about 25% at all sites. However, absolute anomalies remained below 3.0 UVI units because the enhancements occurred during times when the solar elevation was still low.

Modern Trends of Labor Law Development in the Republic of Kazakhstan

The subject of the study is public relations related to the specification and implementation of State policy aimed at social security of citizens and protection of their rights and freedoms in the field of labor relations, free choice of professions and occupation. Employment of the population, as a concept and as a legal category, is defined both as personal right and public policy. Considering that the degree of realization of human and civil rights and freedoms for a free choice of profession depends on the state of the economy and on legal, organizational, administrative measures taken by public authorities, the issues of ensuring full and productive employment will always be in the dynamics of development, improvement and in process of study. The methods of comparative legal analysis, dialectical principles, and the principles of consistency in the study of the subject of research on the basis of specific historical methods, logical techniques and means have been used in this research. Using the above methods and principles in the study of this problem allows us to consider the phenomena in their relationship and development. The research represents one of the attempts of a comprehensive, systematic analysis of labor relations arising both on the basis of an employment contract and an administrative act appointing an employee to a post. The article reveals: the content of employment contracts; the legal personality of the State through the competent authorities in the field of labor relations; the significance of the employment contract on liability; the specificity of State activities through the competent authorities of the relevant sectors as a subject of labor relations; conditions for applying civil employment contracts; legal conditions by which the competencies of various categories of employees are determined. Keywords: Republic of Kazakhstan, labor legislation, legal personality, legal relationship, authority, labor relations.

Physics-inspired integrated space–time artificial neural networks for regional groundwater flow modeling

Abstract. An integrated space–time artificial neural network (ANN) model inspired by the governing groundwater flow equation was developed to test whether a single ANN is capable of modeling regional groundwater flow systems. Model-independent entropy measures and random forest (RF)-based feature selection procedures were used to identify suitable inputs for ANNs. L2 regularization, five-fold cross-validation, and an adaptive stochastic gradient descent (ADAM) algorithm led to a parsimonious ANN model for a 30 691 km2 agriculturally intensive area in the Ogallala Aquifer of Texas. The model testing at 38 independent wells during the 1956–2008 calibration period showed no overfitting issues and highlighted the model's ability to capture both the observed spatial dependence and temporal variability. The forecasting period (2009–2015) was marked by extreme climate variability in the region and served to evaluate the extrapolation capabilities of the model. While ANN models are universal interpolators, the model was able to capture the general trends and provide groundwater level estimates that were better than using historical means. Model sensitivity analysis indicated that pumping was the most sensitive process. Incorporation of spatial variability was more critical than capturing temporal persistence. The use of the standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index (SPEI) as a surrogate for pumping was generally adequate but was unable to capture the heterogeneous groundwater extraction preferences of farmers under extreme climate conditions.

Makandal and Pandemic Knowledge: Literature, Fetish, and Health in the Plantationocene

AbstractKey aspects of the plantation economy, centered in the early Caribbean, include the theft of Indigenous land, agricultural monocropping, and racial capitalism as well as an epistemological effort to separate out humans, animals, and plants into discrete species. This essay identifies the current pandemic as a crisis in knowledge—one in which assumptions such as Linnaean categories and species boundaries need re-examining—and explores historical and disciplinary means of challenging the limited and often deadly knowledge regime of the Plantationocene. Turning to the historical revolutionary figure of François Makandal, the essay explores alternative knowledge systems that help us to understand modes of human-environmental connection, semiotics of relation, and text networks of literature and oral history. These alternative ways of knowing the world are fugitive from, and revolutionary with respect to, racial capitalism and the plantation project and are traceable within a line of literary Makandal texts.

Multi-step ahead forecasting of daily reference evapotranspiration using deep learning

Daily reference evapotranspiration (ETo) forecasts can help farmers in irrigation planning. Therefore, this study assesses the potential of deep learning (long short-term memory (LSTM), one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1D CNN) and a combination of the two previous models (CNN-LSTM)) and traditional machine learning models (artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF)), in regional and local scenarios, to forecast multi-step ahead daily ETo (seven days) using iterated, direct and multiple input multiple output (MIMO) forecasting strategies. Three input data combinations were assessed: (1) only lagged ETo; (2) lagged ETo + day of the year of each step of the time lag considered; and (3) the same of input combination 2 + lagged meteorological variables. Data from 53 weather stations located in Minas Gerais, Brazil, were used. Four stations were used as test stations. Two baselines were also employed: (B1), all the forecasting horizon is considered equal to the mean ETo measured during the last seven days; and (B2), ahead ETo values are considered equal to their respective historical monthly means. In general, MIMO was the best forecasting strategy, offering good performance and lower computational cost. The deep learning models performed slightly better than the machine learning models, and both were better than the best baseline (B2), mainly on the first and second forecasting days. Among the deep learning models, CNN-LSTM2 (i.e., CNN-LSTM with input combination 2) performed the best in local scenario (mean RMSE over the prediction horizon and stations equal to 0.87), and CNN-LSTM3 performed the best in regional scenario (mean RMSE equal to 0.88). The regional models are recommended instead of the local models since they exhibited similar performances and have higher generalization capacity. Finally, although the models developed have not exhibited high accuracies, they can be useful tools in places where historical monthly mean ETo is used to forecast ETo.

NEGATIVE INFLUENCE OF LOW RAINFALL LEVELS ON FRUIT RIPENING OF Miconia calvescens DC. (MELASTOMATACEAE JUSS.)

Fruit ripening is the stage that most demands water. Here we report the negative influence of a shortage of water on the ripening of Miconia calvescens (Myrtales, Melastomataceae) fruits. In 2014 rainfall levels in Ilha Grande, municipality of Angra dos Reis, state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, were low in comparison with the historical means (2003-2013), leading to dry-season conditions during the peak of the wet season. The low rainfall levels may have caused the abortion of the first unripe fruit crop. Fruit development and ripening started again by the increase of the rainfall levels. The results indicate that water stress is a limiting factor for fruit ripening in this species, given that its fruits have high water content.

Thinking Congregationally about British Muslims

ABSTRACTBritish mosques are growing, both numerically and in terms of their capacity. While there is a burgeoning body of literature that examines mosques for their historical significance, their symbolic resonance, or as sites of conflict and contestation, no studies have yet explored the congregation and the mosque. This article argues that there is value in thinking congregationally about British Muslims and contends that the congregation is emerging as the primary means of doing religion together amongst Muslims in diaspora, replacing older and historical means of association amongst Muslims. Seeking a better understanding of the operation of congregations provides a project that can unite textual and sociological scholars, ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’, and which will potentially have an impact on policy for authorities, and benefit for academic understanding, as well as for mosques and Muslims themselves. Before considering the Muslim congregation, however, the article reviews the field of congregational studies, which has been predominantly focused on churches, and identifies the tools and approaches that can be utilized by scholars wishing to research Muslim congregations.

Machine Learning for Attribution of Heat and Drought in Southwestern Australia

Abstract Temperature and precipitation datasets, extending back over 100 years, are analyzed at Perth, Australia. Observational analyses reveal the emergence of hot and dry years since the 1980s, with changes in maximum temperatures ~1.5-2 °C above historical means. These temperatures far exceed recorded natural variability measured in the early 20th century and, in the past few decades, have accelerated above the danger threshold established in the Paris Accords. Permutation testing of mean Perth temperature (precipitation) for the 20-year periods 1979-1998 and 1999-2018 shows an increase (decrease) of 0.855 °C (98.1 mm); p-value 0.001 (0.0087). Attribution of interannual data variability is established by wavelet analyses. Linear and support vector regression (LR, SVR), neural network (NN) and random forests (RF) are used for temperature and precipitation prediction after attribute selection methods are applied to a set of climate drivers. Forecasts on independent testing data show that for temperature and precipitation forecasts, SVR, LR and NN (temperature only) provide more accurate predictions than RF. The features selected by attribute selection and machine learning provide important guidance for climate forecasting, policy planning and management.

형사보상에서 국가배상법의 구상권 규정의 준용 필요성

If an individual has been wrongly convicted on the grounds of a tort carried out by a public servant, that individual can either apply for Criminal Compensation or State Compensation, defined in their respective acts. However, if the wronged individual first applies for Criminal Compensation then later files for State Compensation, or if the individual applies only for criminal compensation, the state cannot exercise its right to indemnity as set out in the State Compensation Act, because the act states that such rights can only be applied to compensations paid by the State Compensation Act. The result is that choices made by individuals can result in not only losses for the state but also reflective benefits for those public servants who would otherwise have been subject to indemnity. As there exist cases where wronged individuals apply only for the more easily argued and proven Criminal Compensation, a solution is necessary. As the State Compensation Act assumes the state itself is responsible for the tortious actions of its servants, it can be said that legally there is no basis for the government to hold the right to indemnity. However, such a right was implemented to suppress the abuse of power and also to support active performance of governmental duties by stating that this right can only be exercised in case of gross negligence or deliberate intent. The Criminal Compensation Act also assumes the state is responsible for the damage caused to wrongly convicted individuals yet does not state the existence of a right to indemnity. To solve this legal gap, it is necessary for the Criminal Compensation Act to also regulate the right to indemnity. The actual content of this right should simply be an application of that of the State Compensation Act. As in the case of French Criminal Procedure, it is possible that the state could hold the right of indemnity towards those who provide false witness, bring false charges or otherwise distort criminal justice. However, the difference in French and Korean evidence laws as well as legal and historical backgrounds means such regulations would be inappropriate. As the purpose of introducing such rights to indemnity would be to encourage the proper execution of governmental affairs and to deal with the existing legal gap, the proper solution would be to simply apply the right to indemnity as provided in the State Compensation Act to the Criminal Compensation Act.

Outcomes of Mini-Open Carpal Tunnel Release in Patients With Unrecordable Preoperative Nerve Conduction Potentials at a Minimum of 5 Years

Background: The aim of this study is to assess the outcomes of carpal tunnel release (CTR) in a cohort of patients with preoperatively unrecordable median nerve sensory and motor potentials in comparison with historical controls at minimum 5-year follow-up. Methods: We retrospectively identified 1297 patients who underwent CTR at a tertiary care referral center from July 2008 to June 2013. After exclusion criteria and review of available preoperative nerve conduction studies, 24 patients who underwent CTR with preoperative unrecordable sensory and motor nerve potentials were identified. Fifteen living, mentally capable patients were contacted by telephone for follow-up. Our primary outcome measure was the Boston Carpal Tunnel Syndrome Questionnaire (BCTQ). Secondary outcome measures included Disabilities of the Arm, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) score, pain on a 0 to 10 Likert scale, and satisfaction on a 0 to 10 Likert scale. Results: Our response rate was 80% (12 out of 15) of eligible patients. Mean follow-up was 6.9 years in our study (range, 5.4-9.5 years). The mean BCTQ symptom score was 1.4, and the mean BCTQ functional score was 1.8. Mean DASH score was 15.2. On average, patient-reported pain was 0.3 and satisfaction was 8.3. No difference was found in outcomes of CTR in patients with end-stage carpal tunnel syndrome compared with historical means. Conclusions: Patients with end-stage carpal tunnel syndrome do not have worse long-term patient-reported outcomes after CTR compared with the general population. Unrecordable nerve potentials are not a contraindication for CTR.

Muslims Through American History and Culture Before 21st Century: A Review

This paper presents a brief chronological review of American cultural representations of Muslims through major historical events. Situating the development of these cultural works within their historical milieus elucidates their evolution and development. We begin with the influential role played by the British and French Orientalist traditions on American first perceptions of Islam and Muslims, American Barbarian Wars, the Greek revolt against Ottoman rule to the missionaries and tourists to the Holy Lands. Nevertheless, the post WWII era seems to have the most accelerated growth in American perception of Islam and Muslims where more geopolitical and economic interests emerged. These historical landmarks will form the structure of the article which reviews how American historical and cultural means have molded images of Islam and Muslims across time and space. Images of Muslims seem to be overshadowed by American religious, economic and political interests. Inherited Orientalist traditions were reinforced through these interest-based representations.

Liquidity and realized range-based volatility forecasting: Evidence from China

This paper examines the dynamical impact of market wide liquidity on the volatility by using the Markov switching-regime approach on the Heterogeneous Autoregressive model of the realized range-based volatility (MS-HAR-RRV-LIQ). First, based on the simple partition of the liquidity measures by their historical means, we find the impact of the market liquidity on the realized range-based volatility (RRV) is non-linear with significantly stronger when the market is fluctuating. Second, by utilizing the method of Markov regimes switching, we find that in sample results, the impact of market liquidity on RRV is dynamics with much stronger when the market is fluctuating. In addition, the impact of liquidity on RRV are persistent for both the fluctuating state and the stable state, which indicate that the impact of liquidity on volatility would remain in its original state unless there are major economic events. Third, in order to eliminate the hidden information of volatility in liquidity measures, we further decompose the liquidity measures to obtain the volatility-adjusted liquidity, and find that the impact of liquidity driven by the component of liquidity uncorrelated with volatility on market volatility is also dynamics with much stronger when the market is fluctuating. Finally, out-of-sample results suggest that the models of HAR-RRV-LIQ and their corresponding volatility-adjusted liquidity models with regimes switching can increase the forecasting ability significantly than those without regime switching.