Historical Growth Research Articles

Exploring changes in depression and radiology-related publications research focus: A bibliometrics and content analysis based on natural language processing.

This study aims to construct and use natural language processing and other methods to analyze major depressive disorder (MDD) and radiology studies' publications in the PubMed database to understand the historical growth, current state, and potential expansion trend. All MDD radiology studies publications from January 2002 to January 2022 were downloaded from PubMed using R, a statistical computing language. R and the interpretive general-purpose programming language Python were used to extract publication dates, geographic information, and abstracts from each publication's metadata for bibliometric analysis. The generative statistical algorithm "Latent Dirichlet allocation" (LDA) was applied to identify specific research focus and trends. The unsupervised Leuven algorithm was used to build a network to identify relationships between research focus. A total of 5,566 publications on MDD and radiology research were identified, and there is a rapid upward trend. The top-cited publications were 11,042, and the highly-cited publications focused on improving diagnostic performance and establishing imaging standards. Publications came from 76 countries, with the most from research institutions in the United States and China. Hospitals and radiology departments take the lead in research and have an advantage. The extensive field of study contains 12,058 Medical Subject Heading (MeSH) terms. Based on the LDA algorithm, three areas were identified that have become the focus of research in recent years, "Symptoms and treatment," "Brain structure and imaging," and "Comorbidities research." Latent Dirichlet allocation analysis methods can be well used to analyze many texts and discover recent research trends and focus. In the past 20 years, the research on MDD and radiology has focused on exploring MDD mechanisms, establishing standards, and constructing imaging methods. Recent research focuses are "Symptoms and sleep," "Brain structure study," and "functional connectivity." New progress may be made in studies on MDD complications and the combination of brain structure and metabolism.

English for Specific Purposes: An Overview: Definitions, Characteristics and Development

This paper discusses the importance of English for Specific Purposes (ESP) and traces its historical growth. It comprises the attempts of linguists to define it, each from a different prospective. This review also attempts to find out the purpose of ESP and its scope and how ESP courses are different from General English (GE) courses as well as the features and the requirements of an ESP course. It also discusses the needs analysis that is a crucial requirement for an ESP course and the importance of ESP courses for students as well as professionals. It discusses the teaching and learning process of an ESP course and highlights the fact that the creation, planning and structuring of an ESP course is a very challenging mission because it has to be tailored to the requirements of its learners. 
  

GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF KHULNA CITY: AN ANALYTICAL REVIEW

Khulna is a growing metropolis and the third largest city of Bangladesh. It is a port city and an important industrial town of the country. The present growth and development trend of Khulna city is phenomenal. Though Khulna city has a short and decent past history, its growth potential was never as prominent as it is now a days. Unlike Dhaka, Chittagong, and Rajshahi city, Khulna does not possess a long historical growth record. Khulna is the third municipality in the southwestern region of Bangladesh, and previously it was a subdivision headquarters under Jessore district. But in the later part of British regime, the growth of Khulna city was rapid and it surpassed the growth of other cities in this region. This growth was more rapid after the partition of India, especially after the emergence of Bangladesh. This paper provides a short description of the growth of Khulna city in different periods, and investigates the underlying causes of its growth and development. A number of reasons were identified for the spectacular growth of the city. It is found that during British Period, colonial administrative decisions and the growing importance of maritime trade and revenue collection led to the growth and development of this town. In later periods, some other factors like the partition of India, establishment of divisional headquarters in the city, independence of Bangladesh, setting up of Mongla Port, and shrimp cultivation in Khulna Region greatly enhanced the growth of this metropolis.

CO2‐fertilisation enhances resilience to browsing in the recruitment phase of an encroaching savanna tree

Abstract CO2‐fertilisation is implicated in the widespread and significant woody encroachment of savannas due to CO2‐stimulated increases in below‐ground reserves that enhance sapling regrowth after fire. However, the effect of CO2 concentration ([CO2]) on tree responses to the other major disturbance in savannas, herbivory, is poorly understood. Herbivory responses cannot be predicted from fire responses, as herbivore effects occur earlier during establishment and are moderated by plant palatability and defence rather than below‐ground carbon accumulation. The relationship between herbivory and [CO2] is explored here using a widespread, strongly encroaching savanna tree, Vachellia karroo. Using greenhouse‐grown seedlings under past—through to predicted future—[CO2] (180–1000 ppm) and field‐grown seedlings under ambient [CO2], we assessed plant survival, growth, defence and palatability. Increasing [CO2] improves the tolerance of greenhouse‐grown seedlings to herbivory by stimulating growth and allowing a critical size threshold associated with survival to be reached earlier, thereby decreasing the probability of fatal herbivory during the vulnerable recruitment phase. Elevated [CO2] also decreases the time taken to reach a second size threshold linked to accelerated recovery of field‐grown seedlings following herbivory. Seedling growth responses to increasing [CO2] are nonlinear, suggesting that historic growth and survival enhancements are smaller than those predicted for the future. Increasing [CO2] is associated with greater resistance to herbivores (more branched shoot architecture) but not leaf palatability (C:N ratio) or defence (leaf tannins and spine density). Increasing V. karroo densities already constitute a major land management problem in southern African savannas. However, encroachment by this species, and likely other savanna tree species, may be greatly exacerbated under future [CO2], as tolerance to herbivory at the recruitment stage is further enhanced. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Adherence to the New Zealand Pediatric Guideline for the Assessment and Diagnosis of Inflammatory Bowel Disease.

This study aimed to assess the application of the guidelines in a group of children diagnosed with IBD in regards to baseline investigations. This retrospective observational study analyzed the application of recommended baseline investigations included in the NZ guidelines in a group of children aged <16 years diagnosed consecutively with IBD at the 2 NZ tertiary pediatric gastroenterology centers. Fifty children were included from each center. Seventy-two were diagnosed with Crohn's disease (CD), 15 with ulcerative colitis (UC), and 13 were with IBD unclassified. The children with CD had a mean Pediatric Crohn's Disease Activity Index score of 31 and almost half had ileocolonic involvement (47%). The 15 children with UC had a mean PUCAI score of 42, and 13 had pancolonic involvement. All 100 children underwent upper and lower gastrointestinal endoscopy with biopsies, and 92% had magnetic resonance enterography at diagnosis. Iron studies, folate, and vitamin B12 were measured in >70 children. Serum zinc, magnesium, and phosphate were infrequently measured. Current anthropometry was recorded in all children but historical growth data were variably recorded. Vaccination status was also inconsistently recorded. Most of this group of children diagnosed with IBD in 2 NZ centers underwent key recommended investigations at diagnosis including gastrointestinal endoscopy and small bowel imaging. Other baseline assessments, including measurement of micronutrient levels, were completed variably. Measures to enhance consistent baseline assessments are required.

Redefining Growth: Using Analyst Forecasts to Transcend the Value–Growth Dichotomy (Part 1)

Asset pricing literature typically labels stocks with high price multiples as growth and stocks with low price multiples as value. This definition is accompanied by the view that, over the long term, value outperforms growth and encourages investors to make a binary choice between the two styles. In this first of two articles, we seek to find an alternative definition of growth and, to this end, evaluate the efficacy of a range of metrics at predicting future earnings growth. We conclude that analysts’ forecasts have a stronger relationship with future earnings growth than price multiples do. In addition to this main observation, we find that profitability and historical earnings growth have a negative relationship with future earnings growth, thus challenging the notion that these metrics are useful for identifying growth stocks.

Ancient DNA evidence for the ecological globalization of cod fishing in medieval and post-medieval Europe.

Understanding the historical emergence and growth of long-range fisheries can provide fundamental insights into the timing of ecological impacts and the development of coastal communities during the last millennium. Whole-genome sequencing approaches can improve such understanding by determining the origin of archaeological fish specimens that may have been obtained from historic trade or distant water. Here, we used genome-wide data to individually infer the biological source of 37 ancient Atlantic cod specimens (ca 1050–1950 CE) from England and Spain. Our findings provide novel genetic evidence that eleventh- to twelfth-century specimens from London were predominantly obtained from nearby populations, while thirteenth- to fourteenth-century specimens were derived from distant sources. Our results further suggest that Icelandic cod was indeed exported to London earlier than previously reported. Our observations confirm the chronology and geography of the trans-Atlantic cod trade from Newfoundland to Spain starting by the early sixteenth century. Our findings demonstrate the utility of whole-genome sequencing and ancient DNA approaches to describe the globalization of marine fisheries and increase our understanding regarding the extent of the North Atlantic fish trade and long-range fisheries in medieval and early modern times.

Maternal Transfer and Long-Term Population Effects of PCBs in Baltic Grey Seals Using a New Toxicokinetic–Toxicodynamic Population Model

Empirical evidence has shown that historical exposure of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) to Baltic grey seals not only severely affected individual fitness, but also population growth rates and most likely caused the retarded recovery rate of the depleted population for decades. We constructed a new model which we term a toxicokinetic–toxicodynamic (TKTD) population model to quantify these effects. The toxicokinetic sub-model describes in detail the bioaccumulation, elimination and vertical transfer from mother to offspring of PCBs and is linked to a toxicodynamic model for estimation of PCB-related damage, hazard and stress impacts on fertility and survival rates. Both sub-models were linked to a Leslie matrix population model to calculate changes in population growth rate and age structure, given different rates of PCB exposure. Toxicodynamic model parameters related to reproductive organ lesions were calibrated using published historical data on observed pregnancy rates in Baltic grey seal females. Compared to empirical data, the TKTD population model described well the age-specific bioaccumulation pattern of PCBs in Baltic grey seals, and thus, the toxicokinetic parameters, deduced from the literature, are believed to be reliable. The model also captured well the general effects of PCBs on historical population growth rates. The model showed that reduced fertility due to increased PCB exposure causes decreased vertical transfer from mother to offspring and in turn increased biomagnification in non-breeding females. The developed TKTD model can be used to perform population viability analyses of Baltic grey seals with multiple stressors, also including by-catches and different hunting regimes. The model can also be extended to other marine mammals and other contaminants by adjustments of model parameters and thus provides a test bed in silico for new substances.

Evaluating Compact City Model Implementation as a Sustainable Urban Development Tool to Control Urban Sprawl in the City of Jeddah

Urban sprawl is one of the most challenging urban phenomena. Many urban planners believe that it is difficult to achieve sustainable development without managing undesired urban growth. Since the 1960s, a wide range of urban planning policies have been introduced to manage urban sprawl. The concepts of New Urbanism, smart growth, and compact city started to be discussed and implemented in developed countries. Jeddah, as the second largest city in Saudi Arabia, is no exception. The planning authority has attempted to apply a compact city model to control urban sprawl. This study aims to evaluate the implementation of the compact city model in Jeddah by comparing the outcomes to what was expected. It presents the historical urban growth pattern and discusses in detail the effect of the policy implementation on both district and city growth level. The main study findings are as follows: (i) While the compact city model depends on encouraging people to live in high-density districts and mixed-use development to reduce commuting time and increase the efficiency of public transport, Jeddah failed to provide an efficient public transportation system to encourage investments in mixed-use real-estate projects. (ii) A higher population density was achieved (from 44 to 155 person per hectare), but it came with many other infrastructure, social, and economic issues. (iii) The implementation failed to control the sprawl as was anticipated. The city grew within the study area by about 20% and the price per square m was increased by 300%. Thus, the main finding of the study shows that to achieve noticeable sustainable urban development—in the case of Jeddah—the planning authority should aim for more regulation of flat urban development and promote a more realistic and sustainable intensification policy. A well-designed approach to guide future development and provide functional open spaces to enhance the sense of community, reducing automobile dependency and respecting all other local social, economic, and environmental aspects, could be more effective in reducing and controlling the rate of urban sprawl.

An Integrated Modelling Approach to Urban Growth and Land Use/Cover Change

Long-term sustainable development in developing countries requires researching and projecting urban physical growth and land use/land cover change (LUCC). This research fills a gap in the literature by exploring the issues of modelling coupled LUCC and urban growth, their causes, and the role of policymakers. Tabriz metropolitan area (TMA), located at north-west Iran, was chosen as a case study to design an integrated framework using four well-established methods: cellular automata (CA), Markov chains (MC), logistic regression (LR), and stepwise weight assessment ratio analysis (SWARA). Northern, north-west, and central TMA were affected the worst by urbanisation and the loss of cultivated and grassland between 1990 and 2020. The accessibility of arterial roadways and proximity to major cities influenced these changes. Three scenarios characterise LUCC dynamics: the uncontrolled growth scenario (UGS) and the historical trend growth scenario (HTGS) foresee significant loss of cultivated land and continued urban expansion above the long-term average in 2050, while the environmental protection growth scenario (EPGS) promotes sustainable development and compact urbanisation. The methods used in this research may be used to various contexts to examine the temporal and spatial dynamics of LUCC and urban growth.

Phasing Risk in Aircraft Development Programs

This article analyzes the timing of cumulative cost growth over the planned development schedule, with the goal of utilizing the pattern of historic cost growth to phase the risk dollars for new aircraft development programs. Using data from Selected Acquisition Reports for 21 completed programs, a polynomial regression model is fit to cost growth. The polynomial indicates that 85% of cost growth occurs in the second half of the planned development schedule, on average. These results suggest that risk dollars for new programs should be “backloaded,” or phased later in the program schedule. Backloading risk dollars could improve early program execution and provide greater budget flexibility in the event of schedule delays or schedule growth.

Historical growth of concept networks in Wikipedia

Philosophers of science have long questioned how collective scientific knowledge grows. Although disparate answers have been posited, empirical validation has been challenging due to limitations in collecting and systematizing large historical records. Here, we introduce new methods to analyze scientific knowledge formulated as a growing network of articles on Wikipedia and their hyperlinks. We demonstrate that in Wikipedia, concept networks in subdisciplines of science do not grow by expanding from their central core to reach an ancillary periphery. Instead, science concept networks in Wikipedia grow by creating and filling knowledge gaps. Notably, the process of gap formation and closure may be valued by the scientific community, as evidenced by the fact that it produces discoveries that are more frequently awarded Nobel prizes than other processes. To determine whether and how the gap process is interrupted by paradigm shifts, we operationalize a paradigm as a particular subdivision of scientific concepts into network modules. Hence, paradigm shifts are reconfigurations of those modules. The approach allows us to identify a temporal signature in structural stability across scientific subjects in Wikipedia. In a network formulation of scientific discovery, our findings suggest that data-driven conditions underlying scientific breakthroughs depend as much on exploring uncharted gaps as on exploiting existing disciplines and support policies that encourage new interdisciplinary research.

Quantify the Potential Spatial Reshaping Utility of Urban Growth Boundary (UGB): Evidence from the Constrained Scenario Simulation Model

Many countries, including China, have implemented the spatial government policy widely known as urban growth boundary (UGB) for managing future urban growth. However, few studies have asked why we need UGB, especially pre-evaluating the utility of UGB for reshaping the future spatial patterns of cities. In this research, we proposed a constrained urban growth simulation model (CUGSM) which coupled Markov chain (MC), random forest (RF), and patch growth based cellular automata (Patch-CA) to simulate urban growth. The regulatory effect of UGB was coupled with CUGSM based on a random probability game method. Guangzhou city, a metropolitan area located in the Peral River Delta of China, was taken as a case study. Historical urban growth from 1995 to 2005 and random forests were used to calibrate the conversion rules of Patch-CA, and the urban patterns simulated and observed in 2015 were used to identify the simulation accuracy. The results showed that the Kappa and figure of merit (FOM) indices of the unconstrained Patch-CA were just 0.7914 and 0.1930, respectively, which indicated that the actual urban growth was reshaped by some force beyond what Patch-CA has learned. We further compared the simulation scenarios in 2035 with and without considering the UGB constraint, and the difference between them is as high as 21.14%, which demonstrates that UGB plays an important role in the spatial reshaping of future urban growth. Specifically, the newly added urban land outside the UGB has decreased from 25.13% to 16.86% after considering the UGB constraint; particularly, the occupation of agricultural space and ecological space has been dramatically reduced. This research has demonstrated that the utility of UGB for reshaping future urban growth is pronounced, and it is necessary for the Chinese government to further strengthen UGB policy to promote sustainable urban growth.

Collaboration between the FIP Young Pharmacists Group and Academic Pharmacy Section: What impact have we had on early career professionals?

The International Pharmaceutical Federation Young Pharmacists Group (FIP YPG) and the Academic Pharmacy Section (AcPS) have worked together within the FIP for many years. This paper describes the collaboration between the YPG and AcPS and the impact this has had on YPG members over the past few decades. The FIP YPG records were reviewed to extract information on past collaborations. YPG members were contacted to learn about how being a FIP member or being part of programmes organised by YPG-AcPS has impacted their careers. A historical perspective and growth in YPG-AcPS collaborations over the years, including testimonials from past and current AcPS presidents, are presented to highlight some of their collaborations. Recent initiatives described include the launch of the YPG-AcPS Leadership Development Workshop, AcPS leaders serving as mentors in the FIP YPG Mentorship Programme, joint FIP digital events, and AcPS members contributing to the FIP YPG 20 years report.

Urban growth: Modelling street network growth in Manhattan (1642–2008) and Barcelona (1260–2008)

In this paper, we argue for the case that cities are self-organised complex systems by presenting evidence on positive and reinforcing feedback mechanisms and robust global trends that characterise historical growth patterns. In two case studies; Manhattan and Barcelona, historical stages of urban growth were mapped and analysed. The analyses revealed regularities that may help define the local and global processes that characterise urban growth marked by alternating periods of expansion and pruning in street networks. The global trend marked by a lognormal distribution of segmental integration (closeness) in street networks was consistently restored following planning interventions. The overall street network growth trend appeared to fit an exponential or power law distribution, along with a linear change in fractal dimension. Underlying these global trends, we found evidence for local positive and reinforcing feedback mechanisms; explained by preferential attachment to well-connected street structures, and pruning of weakly integrated local street structures. The findings are likely to improve our understanding of urban growth.

From the Editor

Sustainable growth is one of the key inputs in the income approach. I have seen wide variation in practice over time with respect to selection of a sustainable growth rate ranging from long-term targets for inflation, expected industry growth rates, T-Bond yields and expected growth of the Gross Domestic Product. This list is clearly not exhaustive; I have seen many different variations with high growth companies. Shannon Pratt illustrated the significance of the long-term growth rate in the following passage from Valuing a Business:As the example illustrates, minor differences in sustainable growth rates can have very significant impacts on an opinion of value. This issue contains two papers that directly address the issue of sustainable growth. Dr. Gene Trevino analyzes the issue from the standpoint of the accuracy of using historical industry growth rates, historical gross domestic product growth rates and expected inflation rates as sustainable long-term growth rates, while Dr. Brad Cornell and Richard Gerger approach the topic by analyzing historic growth of public companies. Their findings are surprisingly similar.David Neuzil and Joe Thompson revisit the Value Driver Formula and illustrate short-comings of a traditional Gordon Growth Model in valuing a business that invest heavily in research and development.Finally, the issue has a Special Report from the International Valuation Standard Council (“IVSC”) on Environmental, Social and Governance (“ESG”) issues in valuation. The IVSC has been busy developing technical resources for valuation professional in the evolving area of ESG and its application in business valuation. The Special Report provides an overview of those resources and ongoing work in the area.To all our readers, enjoy the issue and let me know if you have any strong opinion or further thoughts on our articles – letters to the editor are welcome.

Is Expected Inflation the Best Long-term Sustainable Growth Rate?

When using the income approach to value a business, selecting a sustainable long-term growth rate is a necessary input into the valuation model, one that can have a material effect on the value of the business. The business valuation literature has provided little guidance for estimating and understanding sustainable long-term growth rates. Apart from relying on macroeconomic indicators and historical industry averages, appraisers have few options for selecting sustainable long-term growth rates and are often relegated to making arbitrary assumptions. The objective of this article is to examine the accuracy of using historical industry average growth rates, historical average gross domestic product growth rates, and expected inflation as sustainable long-term growth rates. The accuracy of the forecasts was examined vis-à-vis actual growth rates for twenty-one selected industries from 1991 to 2021 for the purpose of selecting the most accurate forecasting method. The forecasts premised on expected inflation proved to be the most accurate. In light of the results, the notion that expected inflation may be the best estimate of sustainable long-term growth was explored.

Wheat yield modeling under water-saving irrigation and climatic scenarios in transition from surface to sprinkler irrigation systems

• Remote sensing can provide historical growth data for crop modeling on large scales. • Water productivity could be improved by 18% by deficit irrigation. • Irrigation could be reduced by 150 mm in wet and normal years with no yield loss. • Irrigation strategy under erratic rainfall is vital in improving water productivity. • Sprinkler irrigation in dry years decreased water productivity. Water-saving through deficit irrigation management is a prominent approach to improving water productivity (WP) in sustainable agriculture. However, it is not feasible to assess many irrigation scenarios and their impact on WP. Therefore, crop modeling is a valuable tool for evaluating the effect of different irrigation scenarios on yield and WP. No study has evaluated surface irrigation and transition to sprinkler irrigation under different climatic scenarios and irrigation strategies. In this study, historical remotely sensed crop growth and field-measured grain yield (GY) data were used to calibrate and validate the AquaCrop model for a wide wheat-cultivated area. Then, the model was used to investigate the impact of different surface deficit irrigation strategies under five different climatic scenarios, including wet, normal, and dry on WP and GY. Then the model was used to assess the effect of different sprinkler irrigation strategies and their application efficiency on WP and GY under the climatic scenarios. Based on AquaCrop scenario analyses, irrigation water requirements varied between 270 and 620 mm in different growing seasons regarding rainfall characteristics (amount and distribution). Also, reducing irrigation water by 30% improved WP between 0% and 18% in different growing seasons. Moreover, sprinkler irrigation could improve WP and sustain yield production only in normal and wet years with high application efficiency and proper irrigation strategy. Otherwise, sprinkler irrigation would decrease WP and increase the pressure on water recourses. Therefore, in such areas with erratic rainfalls, synchronizing irrigation strategy with the rainfall characteristics increases WP and sustains crop production.

Economic Reform, Fiscal Rules, and the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Test Model. Evidence from the United Arab Emirates

Abstract The study demonstrates that UAE Vision 2021 was effective, evidenced by the outcomes of the historical growth accounting model and the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds test model. Additionally, the study finds, among other things, that during the UAE Vision 2021, a sudden change in fiscal policy, whether expansionary or contractionary, proved effective, particularly in the long run and that a sudden change in crude oil price has a limited impact on the economy; however, investment in physical capital showed mixed results. Moreover, the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag bounds test model demonstrates the nonlinearity of the relationships between crude oil price, investment in physical capital, and fiscal policy vis-à-vis economic performance. The model demonstrates that crude oil price, fiscal policy, and investment in physical capital are cointegrated with economic performance, reverting to long-run equilibrium in the aftermath of a shock. Hence, the study recommends the adoption of fiscal rules, specifically targeting the structural primary balance. The targeting smooths the underlying commodity price, reduces procyclicality, improves sovereign wealth funds, and cushions the economy from external shocks.

Harvesting Intensity and Aridity Are More Important Than Climate Change in Affecting Future Carbon Stocks of Douglas-Fir Forests

Improved forest management may offer climate mitigation needed to hold warming to below 2°C. However, uncertainties persist about the effects of harvesting intensity on forest carbon sequestration, especially when considering interactions with regional climate and climate change. Here, we investigated the combined effects of harvesting intensity, climatic aridity, and climate change on carbon stocks in Douglas-fir [Pseudotsuga menziesii Mirb. (Franco)] stands. We used the Carbon Budget Model of the Canadian Forest Sector to simulate the harvest and regrowth of seven Douglas-fir stand types covering a 900 km-long climate gradient across British Columbia, Canada. In particular, we simulated stand growth under three regimes (+17%, −17% and historical growth increment) and used three temperature regimes [historical, representative concentration pathways (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5]. Increasing harvesting intensity led to significant losses in total ecosystem carbon stocks 50 years post-harvest. Specifically, forests that underwent clearcutting were projected to stock about 36% less carbon by 2,069 than forests that were left untouched. Belowground carbon stocks 50 years into the future were less sensitive to harvesting intensity than aboveground carbon stocks and carbon losses were greater in arid interior Douglas-fir forests than in humid, more productive forests. In addition, growth multipliers and decay due to the RCP’s had little effect on total ecosystem carbon, but aboveground carbon declined by 7% (95% confidence interval [−10.98, −1.81]) in the high emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. We call attention to the implementation of low intensity harvesting systems to preserve aboveground forest carbon stocks until we have a more complete understanding of the impacts of climate change on British Columbia’s forests.