Historical Forces Research Articles

Funding the pandemic response for Indigenous Peoples: an equity-based analysis of COVID-19 using a Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) Indigenous lens tool

ABSTRACT This study examines the allocation of COVID-19 funding for Indigenous Peoples in Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and the United States during the pandemic’s first wave. Indigenous communities, already facing health disparities, systemic discrimination, and historical forces of colonisation, found themselves further vulnerable to the virus. Analysing the funding policies of these countries, we employed a Health Equity Impact Assessment (HEIA) tool and an Indigenous Lens Tool supplement to evaluate potential impacts. Our results identify three major funding equity issues: unique health and service needs, socioeconomic disparities, and limited access to community and culturally safe health services. Despite efforts for equitable funding, a lack of meaningful consultation led to shortcomings, as seen in Canada’s state of emergency declaration and legal disputes in the United States. New Zealand stood out for integrating Māori perspectives, showcasing the importance of consultation. The study calls for a reconciliation-minded path, aligning with Truth and Reconciliation principles, the UN Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples, and evolving government support. The paper concludes that co-creating equitable funding policies grounded in Indigenous knowledge requires partnership, meaningful consultation, and organisational cultural humility. Even in emergencies, these measures ensure responsiveness and respect for Indigenous self-determination.

Changing effects of external forcing on Atlantic–Pacific interactions

Abstract. Recent studies have highlighted the increasingly dominant role of external forcing in driving Atlantic and Pacific Ocean variability during the second half of the 20th century. This paper provides insights into the underlying mechanisms driving interactions between modes of variability over the two basins. We define a set of possible drivers of these interactions and apply causal discovery to reanalysis data, two ensembles of pacemaker simulations where sea surface temperatures in either the tropical Pacific or the North Atlantic are nudged to observations, and a pre-industrial control run. We also utilize large-ensemble means of historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to quantify the effect of external forcing and improve the understanding of its impact. A causal analysis of the historical time series between 1950 and 2014 identifies a regime switch in the interactions between major modes of Atlantic and Pacific climate variability in both reanalysis and pacemaker simulations. A sliding window causal analysis reveals a decaying El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effect on the Atlantic as the North Atlantic fluctuates towards an anomalously warm state. The causal networks also demonstrate that external forcing contributed to strengthening the Atlantic's negative-sign effect on ENSO since the mid-1980s, where warming tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures induce a La Niña-like cooling in the equatorial Pacific during the following season through an intensification of the Pacific Walker circulation. The strengthening of this effect is not detected when the historical external forcing signal is removed in the Pacific pacemaker ensemble. The analysis of the pre-industrial control run supports the notion that the Atlantic and Pacific modes of natural climate variability exert contrasting impacts on each other even in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. The interactions are shown to be modulated by the (multi)decadal states of temperature anomalies of both basins with stronger connections when these states are “out of phase”. We show that causal discovery can detect previously documented connections and provides important potential for a deeper understanding of the mechanisms driving changes in regional and global climate variability.

Solid–fluid force modeling: Insights from comparing a reduced order model for a pair of particles with resolved CFD-DEM

Solid–fluid force models are essential to efficiently model multiple industrial apparatuses such as fluidized beds, spouted beds, and slurry transport. They are generally built using strong hypotheses (e.g. fully developed flow and no relative motion between particles) that affect their accuracy. We study the effect of these hypotheses on particle dynamics using the sedimentation of a pair of particles. We develop new induced drag, lift and torque models for pairs of particles based on an artificial neural network (ANN) regression. The fluid force model covers a range of Reynolds numbers of 0.1 to 100 and particle centroid distance of up to 9 particle diameters. The ANN model uses 3475 computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation results as the training data set. Using this fluid force model, we develop a reduced-order model (ROM), which includes the virtual mass force, the Meshchersky force, the history force, the lubrication force, and the Magnus force. Using the results of a resolved computational fluid dynamics coupled with a discrete element method (CFD-DEM) model as a reference, we analyze the discrepancies between the ROM and CFD-DEM results for a series of sedimentation cases that cover particle Archimedes number from 20 to 2930 and particle to fluid density ratio of 1.5 to 1000. The errors primarily stem from particle history interactions that are not accounted for by the fully developed flow hypothesis. The importance of this effect on the dynamic of two particles is isolated and it is shown that it is more pronounced in cases with a lower particle-to-fluid density ratio (such as solid–liquid cases). This work underscores the need for more research on these effects to increase the precision of solid–fluid force models for small particle-to-fluid density ratios (1.5).

Zombies in Unexpected Places: Rebellion, Subversion, and the Undead in Romantic Depictions of Obeah

Abstract: The lineage of the zombie myth is complex, reaching far beyond Haiti and Haitian folklore. To expand the zombie's literary history and further complicate our understanding of its cultural heritage, this paper will read four Romantic texts through Sarah Juliet Lauro's framework of the "protozombie": Maria Edgeworth's "The Grateful Negro" (1804), "Song of an Obeah Priestess" (Anonymous, 1821), Cynric R. William's Hamel, the Obeah Man (1827), and William Earle's Obi; or, The History of Three-Fingered Jack (1800). Although these texts do not depict a Haitian zombie-drone, their depictions of Obeah complicate the boundaries between life and death, raising questions about rebellion, subversion, and freedom in response to the transatlantic slave trade. Reading these texts through the lens of the protozombie expands our understanding of the cultural and historical forces that shaped the zombie, moving the conversation beyond Vodou to consider Obeah's connection to the zombie myth.

Dungeons and Dragons: Gender, Race, and Power in the Fantasy and Storytelling Space

Fantasy allows for the intermingling of the imagination and the physical. It creates collective spaces that can reify, reiterate, or challenge socio-economic structures and power dynamics that create inequalities in our everyday lives. Fantasy spaces create the possibility of the impossible, the unbelievable, and the extraordinary, while simultaneously being bound to the real world from which these ideas stem. The creators manufacturing characters, stories, and worlds are conditioned by the social and political context in which they exist, with their own positionality drastically changing the way that they create and interact with stories and storytelling structures, as Garcia’s 2017 work “Privilege, power, and Dungeons & Dragons: How systems shape racial and gender identities in tabletop role-playing games” details. We explore the history of race, gender, and other social forces in the Dungeons and Dragons (D&D) 5e text, a gaming system that creates a framework of races, classes, and backgrounds for character creation in a roleplaying game. We grapple with our own experiences of how the game can (re)create biases that often go overlooked, creating both feelings of (un)safety for players. In this article, by documenting our experiences playing the game, we explore the ways that Dungeons and Dragons both harmfully recreates the dynamics of the White cis heteropatriarchy, as well as offers space to challenge these same forces, bringing the tumultuous clashing of social forces into the semi-private space of gameplay.

Historical imprints on genetic population structure in direct-developing beach whelks (Bullia digitalis)

Marine organisms often show deep genetic divergence between lineages that are characterized by shallow population structure. The distinction of historical and contemporary demographic forces in creating and maintaining these genetic patterns is crucial for management and conservation. In this study, we examined the genetic population structure of Bullia digitalis, a lecithotrophic sandy beach whelk that lacks a pelagic larval phase and is thus expected to show limited connectivity between populations. Mitochondrial (mt)DNA cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI; 540 bp, n = 214) and a reanalysis of allozyme data (14 loci, n = 735) among populations along the cool southeast Atlantic (west) and warm-temperate southwest Indian Ocean (south) coasts of southern Africa showed a strong phylogeographic break across Cape Point with mtDNA (ΦRT = 0.6, p < 0.001), but a weak break with allozymes (FRT = 0.002, p = 0.004). MtDNA gene flow occurred asymmetrically from the west to the south coast. Although there was no mtDNA differentiation between populations on either side of that break (ΦSR = 0.0), there was weak but significant isolation by distance (IBD) among south coast samples (r2 = 0.20, p = 0.039). In contrast, significant allozyme differentiation was detected on small spatial scales but without overall IBD. MtDNA mismatch analysis indicated a recent range expansion, suggesting historic population expansions, most likely during periods of lower sea levels and greater habitat continuity along southern African shores. Thus, the apparent mtDNA connectivity among populations of beach whelks likely reflects historic, rather than contemporary, gene flow.

Rolling forecast of snowmelt floods in data-scarce mountainous regions using weather forecast products to drive distributed energy balance hydrological model

Snowmelt flood forecasting plays a crucial role in water resource management and utilization in arid regions. However, the accuracy of current snowmelt flood forecasts falls short of requirements due to complex mountainous terrain and limited observational data. In this study, We conducted a snowmelt flood simulation and forecasting experiment in a mountainous watershed in northern Xinjiang. First, we used site observations, ERA5-land reanalysis data and WorldClim data to produce historical meteorological forcing, calibrated the VIC-CAS model and improved routing model using historical observed runoff data, and conducted a detailed simulation of the hourly snowmelt flood process in the basin. Then, the latest grid forecast weather product developed by the China Meteorological Administration was integrated into the system to conduct a rolling forecast test of the snowmelt floods in the next 72 h during the snowmelt period in 2023. The remotely sensed snow cover and the freezing level measured by the sounding balloon were assimilated into the model in real time to correct the deviation of runoff simulation. The results show that during the model calibration period, the KGE of the simulated monthly runoff in the Kayertes River basin (KRB) from 2006 to 2011 was 0.83 and the NSE was 0.86. In the continuous hourly runoff simulation during the 2022 snowmelt period, the model well captured the intraday fluctuations of snowmelt runoff in the KRB, with the daily peak flow error within ± 20 % and the peak occurrence time controlled within ± 4 h. In the rolling forecast test in 2023, the daily peak flow error is within ± 20 % (the peak occurrence error during the peak period is even controlled within ± 5 %), and the peak occurrence time is within ± 4 h. Real-time assimilation of freezing level measured by sounding balloons and remotely sensed snow cover can effectively correct the deviations in simulated temperature and snow cover. This study can provide insights for runoff prediction in other high-altitude mountainous areas where data are scarce.

The phenomenon of drought in Ethiopia: Historical evolution and climatic forcing

ABSTRACT This study examines drought patterns in Ethiopia's 12 major river basins from 1981 to 2018 using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Both indices reveal historical drought episodes with slight variations, with significant differences in 1984, 2009, and 2015. Except for the Wabi-Shebelle catchment in southern Ethiopia, all river basins show an increasing trend in SPI12 and SPEI12 indices. The eastern and central regions experience more drought according to SPEI3. Seasonal correlations show that during the March–May rainy season, precipitation is negatively correlated with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) index, while in the June–September season, it negatively correlates with Nino 3.4 and positively with IOD. The study also found that El Niño leads to less rainfall in the Ethiopian highlands, while La Niña results in more rainfall in the central and northern highlands but less in the south.

Freddy: breaking record for tropical cyclone precipitation?

Abstract Depending on the location on the Earth, the amount of precipitation associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) can reach 20% of the total yearly precipitation over land and up to 40% over some ocean regions. TC induced freshwater flooding has been suggested to be the largest threat to human lives due to TCs. Therefore, a reliable quantification of the precipitation amount associated with each past TC is important for a better definition of the TC fingerprint on the climate. The temporal and horizontal resolution of state-of-the-art observational datasets and atmospheric reanalysis gives the possibility to quantify precipitation associated with TCs globally following the observed TC tracks. In this work we compare the TC-related precipitation in various observational and reanalysis datasets. A particular focus is given to the record-breaking TC Freddy (Southern Indian Ocean, 2023). Here we show that the time-varying bias in TC associated precipitation, due to the positive trend in assimilated observations, makes it difficult to assess long-term trend investigation based on reanalysis. To this aim we need to build on state-of-the-art general circulation models, free to evolve under historical radiative forcing.

An anteromedial stabilization procedure has the most protective effect on the anterior cruciate ligament in tibial external rotation. A human knee model study

IntroductionAnterior cruciate ligament (ACL) reconstruction remains associated with the risk of re-rupture and persisting rotational instability. Additional extraarticular anterolateral stabilization procedures stabilize the tibial internal rotation and lead to lower ACL failure rate and improved knee stability. However, data for additional stabilization of tibial external rotation is lacking and the importance of an anteromedial stabilization procedure is less well evaluated. Aim of this study is to investigate the influence of an extraarticular anteromedial stabilization procedure for the stabilization of the tibial external rotation and protection of the ACL from these rotational forces.MethodsInternal and external rotations of the tibia were applied to a finite element (FE) model with anatomical ACL, posterior cruciate ligament (PCL), lateral collateral ligament (LCL), medial collateral ligament (MCL) and intact medial and lateral meniscus. Five additional anatomic structures (Anteromedial stabilization/anteromedial ligament, AML, augmented superficial medial collateral ligament, sMCL, posterior oblique ligament, POL, anterolateral ligament, ALL, and popliteal tendon, PLT) were added to the FE model separately and then combined. The force histories within all structures were measured and determined for each case.ResultsThe anteromedial stabilization or imaginary AML was the main secondary stabilizer of tibial external rotation (90% of overall ACL force reduction). The AML reduced the load on the ACL by 9% in tibial external rotation which could not be achieved by an augmented sMCL (-1%). The AML had no influence in tibial internal rotation (-1%). In the combined measurements with all additional structures (AML, ALL, PLT, POL) the load on the ACL was reduced by 10% in tibial external rotation.ConclusionThis study showed that an additional anteromedial stabilization procedure secures the tibial external rotation and has the most protective effect on the ACL during these external rotational forces.

Chaos, Territory, Art. Deleuze and the Framing of the Earth

This paper is about the ontology, the materiality and logical structure of art. While I am not trained in the visual arts or architecture, nonetheless I see there are many points of overlap, regions of co-occupation, that concern art and philosophy, and it is these shared concerns that I want to explore. I want to discuss the ‘origins’ of art and architecture, but not the historical, evolutionary or material origins of art – an origin confirmable by some kind of material evidence or research – but rather, the conceptual origins of art, what concepts art entails, assumes and elaborates. These of course are linked to historical, evolutionary and material forces, but are nevertheless conceptually, that is to say, metaphysically or ontologically separable from them. Art, according to Deleuze, does not produce concepts, though it does address problems and provocations. It produces sensations, affects, intensities, as its mode of addressing problems, which sometimes align with and link to concepts, the object of philosophical production, the way philosophy deals with problems. Thus philosophy may have a place, not in assessing art, but in addressing the same provocations or incitements to production as art faces, through different means and with different effects and consequences.

A stochastic approach for co-evolution process of virus and human immune system

Infectious diseases have long been a shaping force in human history, necessitating a comprehensive understanding of their dynamics. This study introduces a co-evolution model that integrates both epidemiological and evolutionary dynamics. Utilizing a system of differential equations, the model represents the interactions among susceptible, infected, and recovered populations for both ancestral and evolved viral strains. Methodologically rigorous, the model’s existence and uniqueness have been verified, and it accommodates both deterministic and stochastic cases. A myriad of graphical techniques have been employed to elucidate the model’s dynamics. Beyond its theoretical contributions, this model serves as a critical instrument for public health strategy, particularly predicting future outbreaks in scenarios where viral mutations compromise existing interventions.

The slave/master opposition as the driving force of history by Hegel, Kojève, Lacan

The slave/master opposition as the driving force of history by Hegel, Kojève, Lacan

​​Making ‘Setgel’s Creature’ Mindful​: Conceptual Change in Contemporary Mongolia

As globally circulating understandings of mental health and mindfulness practices gain popularity in Mongolia, they articulate with setgel, a localised concept that has been shaped by a constellation of historical forces. Loosely translated as ‘mind’ in English, setgel has remained central to Mongolian notions of personhood, health, and civic duty, even as the meanings associated with those ideas have changed. As progressivist forces, Tibetan Buddhism and the dominant Soviet political culture of much of the 20th century have held and shaped values in public life. This Position Piece explores the role of power relations and political economy in changing associations of setgel through the example of a recent state-sponsored, Buddhist-inflected mindfulness promotional event for Mongolian influencers. It asks broader questions about how anthropologists as generators of ‘cultural’ knowledge attend to expectations from institutional hosts in the field while also maintaining fidelity to historical change in our work.

Failures of laminates under nonpenetrative impacts

Various failures of laminates under low-velocity impacts without penetration are simulated systematically with a limited number of inputs, all measurable following existing standards without any data calibration. No iteration is required to determine any of the failures investigated in this work. Any two adjacent lamina (primary) layers are inserted with a matrix (secondary) layer, whose stresses are modified through two modification coefficients (MCs). The MCs are determined through peak loads of double cantilever beam and end-notched flexure tests on unidirectional laminates, and their weak sensitivity to sample dimensions is shown. Delamination is reproduced by deleting failed secondary-layer elements. The homogenized stresses of fiber and matrix obtained by Bridging Model are converted into true values through the author’s true stress theory to estimate constituent-induced intralaminar failures, such as fiber breakage, matrix crack and interface debonding, against the monolithic fiber or matrix strengths measured independently. Primary- layer elements attaining a fatal failure (fiber breakage or matrix crack accompanied with a critical strain condition) are deleted before an impact termination corresponding to separation of the impactor from target. The predicted delamination areas and impact force, displacement and energy histories for the laminates of three lamination angles under different impact energies agree well with our measured counterparts, validating the efficiency of the simulation.

Platforms and Palimpsests

Data platforms increasingly mediate the relationship of society to the data it produces and therefore form a critical layer of the contemporary link between data and urbanisation. However, the current discussion of the impact of data platforms on urbanisation is limited on one hand by an overly metaphoric articulation of platforms, which obscures the material geographies and infrastructural landscapes of data production; and on the other hand, by an administratively bounded reading of platforms, which confines the discussion to only their most visible impact in cities. In this article I argue that to fully capture the impact of platforms on urbanisation we need to overcome these limitations by examining the ‘operational landscapes’ of data production and circulation. This extended ontology of platforms positions the spatial discourse of technology in relationship with other forms of capitalist spatial production and opens up the material geographies and infrastructural landscapes of data production for critical engagement as integral parts of the sociotechnical construction of platforms. By examining the data landscapes of Northern Virginia, I illustrate how historic and contemporary forces, actor networks, and urban dynamics contribute to the construction and maintenance of the extended geography of data platforms.

Assessing Global and Regional Trends in Spatially Co‐Occurring Hot or Wet Annual Maxima Under Climate Change

AbstractRecent years were characterized by spatially co‐occurring hot and wet extremes around the globe, raising questions about the contribution of human‐induced global warming to the changing likelihoods of such extreme years. To characterize spatially co‐occurring extremes we investigate recent trends in global and regional land area that is concurrently affected by hot or wet annual maxima taking observational uncertainty into account. Observed trends in the land area affected by extreme events are assessed in the context of Earth System Model (ESM) simulations for present‐day and early‐industrial climate conditions in a detection and attribution setting. We compare different reanalysis and station‐based observational products to account for observational data uncertainty. At the global scale, trends of spatially co‐occurring hot or wet annual maxima in all observational products can be explained by ESM simulations driven by historical radiative forcing that accounts for human‐induced changes in the composition of the atmosphere but cannot be explained by ESM simulations that account for an early‐industrial radiative forcing. At the regional scale, trends in spatially co‐occurring hot annual maxima are in general coherent among observational products and can in most cases be attributed to human influence on the climate system. Trends in spatially co‐occurring wet annual maxima show differences in some regions, highlighting the importance of a multi‐dataset approach to overcome observational product dependencies. Despite observational uncertainty, we find robust detection and attribution results for many regions. These results can complement previous assessments on regional exposure to hot and wet events from the new IPCC AR6 report.

Impact monitoring of large size complex metal structures based on sparse sensor array and transfer learning

During aircraft operations, the impact events experienced by the aircraft may cause damage to the structure, thus posing a safety hazard. Therefore, an accurate determination of where the impact occurred and the time history of the impact force can provide an important basis for assessing the condition of the aircraft. However, modern aircraft structures are often large and complex, and relying on dense arrays of sensors for monitoring adds additional weight to the aircraft and reduces the economics of aircraft operation. This paper proposes a region-to-point monitoring strategy. First, a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model with region localization capability is trained using the sparse sensor array acquisition data. Then, the weighted center algorithm is used to determine the specific location where the impact occurs, in which the added fuzzy genetic algorithm can provide the ability to adjust weights to improve localization accuracy adaptively. As for the impact force prediction, this paper adopts a model based on a Convolutional Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit combined with a Squeeze-Excitation attention mechanism (CNN-GRU-SE), which is capable of predicting the impact force occurring in the flat plate and reinforced structure region of the aircraft under different energy conditions. Finally, the impact of incorporating a transfer learning approach on model performance and training cost is investigated for fuselage regions with different structures.

Formation Process and Spatial Representation of Tourist Destination Personality from the Perspective of Cultural Heritage: Application in Traditional Villages in Ancient Huizhou, China

Tourism destinations are cultural heritage and spatial landscape systems of organic coexistence between humans and the Earth, and are formed through the long historical evolution of a specific geographical environment. With the development of large-scale cultural and tourism projects and the construction of scenic areas, many tourist destinations face conflicts between people and the environment and the crisis of discontinuity in the landscape and the cultural context. The concept of tourist destination personality provides a perspective for studying the interaction between humans and the environment in tourist destinations. However, existing research has not delved into the mechanisms of temporal–spatial interaction and spatial representation of regional cultural heritage in regional systems. Therefore, from the perspectives of geography and urban–rural planning, this study selects traditional villages in ancient Huizhou as the research object and employs relevant theories from cultural ecology to construct a paradigm for analyzing the formation path of tourist destination personality based on a cultural core from a regional systemic perspective. Building on this, this study develops a coupling analysis framework for the “accumulation anchoring” of heritage landscape representation in traditional villages in ancient Huizhou based on a cognitive understanding of tourist destination heritage landscape and a ‘time–space’ interactive model. The research reveals that the formation of personality in traditional villages in ancient Huizhou centers around cultural cores such as production methods, social organizations, construction mechanisms, and social beliefs. It is driven by basic forces such as resource endowment vitality, a social structure driving force, and a historical choice regulatory force, with the logic of forming dominant functions and obtaining expected benefits such as the core. The spatial representation of traditional village heritage in ancient Huizhou exhibits a synergistic evolution mechanism between ‘culture and landscape’. The research process and conclusions provide a basic framework and methodological system for the study of tourist destination personality and heritage revitalization, expanding the understanding of the process of human–environment interaction and spatial patterns in tourist destinations.

Crash Course in the Classroom: Exploring How and Why Social Studies Teachers Use YouTube Videos

This article explores how the Crash Course video series are being used as a content-focused resource in the social studies classroom. It argues that the Crash Course series, alongside its YouTube competitors, has significantly stepped in to fill a vacuum left by criticisms and the unpopularity of lectures, textbooks, and feature films. With over 15 million subscribers and accumulated views over 1.9 billion, Crash Course has become an important and ubiquitous force in history and social studies classrooms and represents a new genre of educational media found on YouTube. However, the dramatic rise in the popularity of educational videos online has not coincided with a growth in educational research, particularly in social studies and history education. This article explores the findings of a mixed-methods study that examines how and why history and social studies teachers are using Crash Course videos in their teaching and planning. In particular, it analyses descriptive statistics derived from the results of a teacher survey ( n = 181) and semi-structured interviews with seven social studies teachers who have used Crash Course in their classrooms. The authors found that teachers in the study are regularly using the Crash Course video series to deliver content which is clearly meeting a need many social studies teachers have. The videos–short, easily accessible, and fun–fit nicely with demands to keep students engaged, reduce reliance on textbooks, and explore new content that teachers have little time to learn themselves. This study also found that rarely, if ever, are teachers inviting students to evaluate or assess the content, trustworthiness, or perspective of Crash Course videos. This article discusses what is gained and what are the risks of embracing Crash Course in the social studies and history classroom.