Epidemic History Research Articles

Historical Malaria Epidemics on Previously Non-Endemic Indo-Pacific Islands.

Islands without prior malaria have on occasion had severe epidemics after its initial introduction, the most infamous example being the Indian Ocean island of Mauritius in 1867. The historical record was examined to see if additional examples of malaria epidemics on Indo-Pacific islands, which were originally non-malarious had been documented. The late nineteenth century depopulation of Polynesian outliers such as Ontong Java has largely been blamed on malaria. Similar but less well-documented instances exist with both the Western Islands, Papua New Guinea, and Rennell in the Solomon Islands. Specific instances of malaria introduction to Grand Comoros and Aldabra Island in the Seychelles occurred by the early twentieth century. In some cases, the epidemics were caused by changes in anopheline vectors while in others new human populations carrying parasites were the important ecological change. It is, however, remarkable how rarely major malaria epidemics have occurred on Indo-Pacific islands.

Historical gold mining infectious disease epidemics

Lethal infectious disease epidemics have historically occurred in military, refugee and mining camps where crowded conditions promote the spread of enteric, respiratory and insect-borne infections. The early history of gold mines around Palmer River, Queensland in the 1870s, Kalgoorlie, Western Australia in the 1890s and Papua on the island of New Guinea in the 1910s are recounted specifically as it relates to infectious disease deaths. Despite large diagnostic gaps, it is likely that malaria was the predominant problem in Palmer River, typhoid in Kalgoorlie and bacillary dysentery in Papua. Nearly two-thirds of all recorded deaths in the Palmer River district from 1873 to 1883 were due to infections, predominately 'fevers'. Typhoid fever likely killed >2000 Australians in the early phases of the Western Australian goldfields in the 1890s. Severe dysentery outbreaks killed up to a majority of the local workforce in the Lakekema goldfields of Papua resulting in the colonial authorities stopping mining activity in the second decade of the 20th century. In the absence of public health measures and specific chemotherapy, large mortality rates in miners reflected the over-riding economic drivers of gold miners and their lack of any understanding of microbial disease and its interruption by public health measures. Similar infectious disease epidemics are likely to reoccur when large numbers of impoverished miners use low-technology methods to work alluvial gold deposits in conflict areas as has been seen in modern Africa.

Takaki Kanehiro and the diet experiments of beriberi in navy in modern Japan

Beriberi is a disease caused by insufficiency vitamin B1 in the body which, if untreated, can cause death. It was the disease with the highest incidence in the Japanese army during the Meiji and Taisho Periods. It was treated with a variety of therapeutic treatments by the Navy and the Army respectively, based on the different therapy systems of Britain and Germany at the time, with an argument about these treatments lasting more than half a century. Eventually, the Navy experimented with dietary modification for beriberi, according to Takagi Kanehiro, successfully reducing beriberi incidence to zero. This rewrote the epidemic history of beriberi in the Japanese Navy.

Human coronaviruses: Origin, host and receptor.

Coronavirus is a type of RNA-positive single-stranded virus with an envelope, and the spines on its surface derived its official name. Seven human coronaviruses 229E, OC43, SARS, NL63, HKU1, MERS, SARS-CoV-2 can cause both a mild cold and an epidemic of large-scale deaths and injuries. Although their clinical manifestations and many other pathogens that cause human colds are similar, studying the relationship between their evolutionary history and the receptors that infect the host can provide important insights into the natural history of human epidemics in the past and future. In this review, we describe the basic virology of these seven coronaviruses, their partial genome characteristics, and emphasize the function of receptors. We summarize the current understanding of these viruses and discuss the potential host of wild animals of these coronaviruses and the origin of zoonotic diseases.

Molecular Epidemiology and Baseline Resistance of Hepatitis C Virus to Direct Acting Antivirals in Croatia.

Molecular epidemiology of hepatitis C virus (HCV) is exceptionally complex due to the highly diverse HCV genome. Genetic diversity, transmission dynamics, and epidemic history of the most common HCV genotypes were inferred by population sequencing of the HCV NS3, NS5A, and NS5B region followed by phylogenetic and phylodynamic analysis. The results of this research suggest high overall prevalence of baseline NS3 resistance associate substitutions (RAS) (33.0%), moderate prevalence of NS5A RAS (13.7%), and low prevalence of nucleoside inhibitor NS5B RAS (8.3%). Prevalence of RAS significantly differed according to HCV genotype, with the highest prevalence of baseline resistance to NS3 inhibitors and NS5A inhibitors observed in HCV subtype 1a (68.8%) and subtype 1b (21.3%), respectively. Phylogenetic tree reconstructions showed two distinct clades within the subtype 1a, clade I (62.4%) and clade II (37.6%). NS3 RAS were preferentially associated with clade I. Phylogenetic analysis demonstrated that 27 (9.0%) HCV sequences had a presumed epidemiological link with another sequence and classified into 13 transmission pairs or clusters which were predominantly comprised of subtype 3a viruses and commonly detected among intravenous drug users (IDU). Phylodynamic analyses highlighted an exponential increase in subtype 1a and 3a effective population size in the late 20th century, which is a period associated with an explosive increase in the number of IDU in Croatia.

Repurposing FDA-approved Drugs Targeting SARS-CoV2 3CLpro: A Study by Applying Virtual Screening, Molecular Dynamics, MM-PBSA Calculations and Covalent Docking

Background: Since the end of 2019, the etiologic agent SAR-CoV-2 responsible for one of the most significant epidemics in history has caused severe global economic, social, and health damages. The drug repurposing approach and application of Structure-based Drug Discovery (SBDD) using in silico techniques are increasingly frequent, leading to the identification of several molecules that may represent promising potential. Method: In this context, here we use in silico methods of virtual screening (VS), pharmacophore modeling (PM), and fragment-based drug design (FBDD), in addition to molecular dynamics (MD), molecular mechanics/Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM -PBSA) calculations, and covalent docking (CD) for the identification of potential treatments against SARS-CoV-2. We initially validated the docking protocol followed by VS in 1,613 FDA-approved drugs obtained from the ZINC database. Thus, we identified 15 top hits, of which three of them were selected for further simulations. In parallel, for the compounds with a fit score value ≤ of 30, we performed the FBDD protocol, where we designed 12 compounds. Result: By applying a PM protocol in the ZINC database, we identified three promising drug candidates. Then, the 9 top hits were evaluated in simulations of MD, MM-PBSA, and CD. Subsequently, MD showed that all identified hits showed stability at the active site without significant changes in the protein's structural integrity, as evidenced by the RMSD, RMSF, Rg, SASA graphics. They also showed interactions with the catalytic dyad (His41 and Cys145) and other essential residues for activity (Glu166 and Gln189) and high affinity for MM-PBSA, with possible covalent inhibition mechanism. Conclution: Finally, our protocol helped identify potential compounds wherein ZINC896717 (Zafirlukast), ZINC1546066 (Erlotinib), and ZINC1554274 (Rilpivirine) were more promising and could be explored in vitro, in vivo, and clinical trials to prove their potential as antiviral agents.

Nature, Culture and COVID-19—Towards a Global History of Pandemics

Abstract From a historical perspective, SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 have simultaneously led to known and previously unknown events as well. These seamlessly linked events can only be grasped with a new, integrative perspective of the relationship between culture and disease. Such a view requires a historiography that captures the full spectrum of an epidemic event, from the causes of emerging pathogens to their global spread and impact on different national, regional, and local communities. Integrative approaches to a global history of epidemics essentially include the following: –Understanding the dynamic relationship between nature and culture to empirically capture changes in local and regional biospheres and their interaction in global contexts. –Investigating the culturally determined scientific and social negotiation processes that lead to the naming, characterization and communication of initially unknown causes of disease in relation to the culturally determined countermeasures that begin with their emergence. –Analysis of the effects of worldwide densification through new technical possibilities and new forms of globally organised production and the associated traffic of trade, transport and communication in historical perspective. These empirical approaches represent nodes in a seamless web of interacting factors. Such an approach necessarily has to bring together a wide range of disciplines and perspectives.

To study the issue of epidemic history in feudal Georgia (Common diseases in western Georgia)

To study the issue of epidemic history in feudal Georgia (Common diseases in western Georgia)

Setting the Stage for the Next Great Vaccine Success Story.

ABSTRACTIn this Commentary, the article by Rosenfeld et al. “Cross-Reactive Antibody Responses against Nonpoliovirus Enteroviruses” is put into context of the historic poliovirus epidemics and resultant vaccination success story as it compares to the current state of acute flaccid myelitis; the relationship to nonpoliovirus enteroviruses (EVs), in particular EV-D68 and EV-A71; and the potential for successful vaccination strategies. The discovery of cross-protective antibody neutralization among polio and nonpolio enteroviruses, specifically EV-D68, opens future questions about EV-D68 vaccination strategies, circulation patterns of nonpolio enteroviruses, and the interpretation of EV-D68 serostudies.

Historical Epidemiology and the Single Pathogen Model of Epidemic Disease

Pre-existing medical conditions and co-infections are common to all human populations, although the natures of the pre-existing conditions and the types of co-infections vary. For these reasons, among others, the arrival of a highly infectious pathogenic agent may differentially affect the disease burden in different sub-populations, as a function of varying combinations of endemic disease, chronic disease, genetic or epigenetic vulnerabilities, compromised immunological status, and socially determined risk exposure. The disease burden may also vary considerably by age cohort and socio-economic status. The social consequences of infection, the medical sequelae, and the paths of recovery from infection may also vary, according to these variables. As a result, different sub-populations may have different experiences of a disease process, including when and how an epidemic comes to an end. This essay suggests that historians' engagement with path-breaking biological and medical anthropological research will allow new approaches to understanding disease processes that will enrich the study of epidemics and their endings. It is organized in three sections. The first discusses some general approaches to and assumptions about epidemics that are used by many historians. The second introduces new perspectives on the study of historical epidemics opened up by the medical anthropological concept of syndemic disease interactions and by an engagement with biological scientific perspectives. It briefly discusses two rural epidemics-one of anemia caused by the syndemic interaction of hookworm and malaria co-infections in early 20th-century British Malaya, and the other of rebound infections caused by the loss of acquired immunity to falciparum malaria in mid-20th-century Liberia-that illustrate, respectively, the utility of the concept of syndemic disease interactions and the centrality of immunological status in understanding epidemic outbreaks in these discrete populations. The third section addresses some of the research considerations involved in moving beyond the single pathogen model of epidemic disease.

A Model for the Lifespan Loss Due to a Viral Disease: Example of the COVID-19 Outbreak

The end of the acute phase of the COVID-19 pandemic is near in some countries as declared by World Health Organization (WHO) in January 2022 based on some studies in Europe and South Africa despite unequal distribution of vaccines to combat the disease spread globally. The heterogeneity in individual age and the reaction to biological and environmental changes that has been observed in COVID-19 dynamics in terms of different reaction to vaccination by age group, severity of infection per age group, hospitalization and Intensive Care Unit (ICU) records show different patterns, and hence, it is important to improve mathematical models for COVID-19 pandemic prediction to account for different proportions of ages in the population, which is a major factor in epidemic history. We aim in this paper to estimate, using the Usher model, the lifespan loss due to viral infection and ageing which could result in pathological events such as infectious diseases. Exploiting epidemiology and demographic data firstly from Cameroon and then from some other countries, we described the ageing in the COVID-19 outbreak in human populations and performed a graphical representation of the proportion of sensitivity of some of the model parameters which we varied. The result shows a coherence between the orders of magnitude of the calculated and observed incidence numbers during the epidemic wave, which constitutes a semi-quantitative validation of the mathematical modelling approach at the population level. To conclude, the age heterogeneity of the populations involved in the COVID-19 outbreak needs the consideration of models in age groups with specific susceptibilities to infection.

Vaccination as protection against particularly dangerous infections and infectious processes that create Рublic health emergencies of international importance

The article presents a brief history of epidemics (pandemics) and vaccination in the most aggressive and widespread infections, currently representing Public health emergencies of international importance. Data on measures to combat them are provided.

Vaccine failure, seasonality and demographic changes associate with mumps outbreaks in Jiangsu Province, China: Age-structured mathematical modelling study

Measles, mumps and rubella (MMR) vaccine program was introduced in Jiangsu province of China in May 2008 and has been greatly contributed to decreasing of mumps cases. However, mumps has been resurging since May 2015. A number of studies have put forward that the resurgence of mumps is due to vaccine failure. In this paper, we investigated the other reasons for the resurging of mumps, such as the changes in seasonal transmission patterns and demographic structures, by using an age-structured mathematical model. We divided the history (January 2005 to May 2019) of mumps epidemics of Jiangsu province into three different stages: No vaccine stage (January 2005 to December 2008), effectively controlled stage (January 2009 to December 2014) and resurgence stage (January 2015 to May 2019). The features of mumps epidemics in three stages are compared under different demographic structures with same physical contact rate. The mumps transmission rate was increased in summer and dropped in November in stage III compared with that in stage I. The changes in demographic structures give a good explanation why the mumps outbreaked among children around 10 years old in stage I and around 5 years old in stage III. We have a conclusion that the vaccine failure, changes in seasonality and demographic structures were associated with the mumps outbreaks in recent years in Jiangsu province, China. We give the patterns of mumps dynamics considering age, vaccine, seasonality and demographic structures, which can help health program planners to implement more preventive interventions in mumps control during the period of higher risk of infection.

Public health concerns over polio in war-torn Ukraine and nearby regions: Four lessons and a warning from the history of epidemics.

As of March 2022, an armed conflict has been unfolding in Ukraine amidst the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. History teaches that infection mortality rises significantly during and after armed conflicts. Following the conflict between Ukraine and Russia in 2014, a poliomyelitis outbreak was reported in the country in summer 2015. At the same time, the immunization coverage for poliomyelitis has declined to 15% and the provision of vaccination was hindered by customs and regulatory obstacles and widespread misinformation. The current situation is further complicated by the damage to healthcare facilities and the expected increase in COVID-19 cases. Lessons from history include the need to strengthen vaccine and medicinal products supply chains, ensure access to immunization for displaced children, keep fighting misinformation and advocate for the cessation of fire on the grounds of its consequences on infection control. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The history of epidemics in the Arabian Gulf in the 19th centuries

مرت البشرية منذ القدم بصعوبات أدت إلى إنتهاء حياة العديد من البشر، و من أكثر الأمور شيوعاً الأوبئة، كانت الأوبئة تهدد حياة البشر في المناطق بسبب سهولة إنتشارها بينهم وعدم وجود العلم الكافي في أمور الصحة، كان يطلق على كل وباء إسم شعبي يشتهرُ في المنطقة وتكون هذه الأسماء مُستلهمة من شيءِ ما مرتبطِ في المرض، تتفق بعض الدراسات أن سبب إنتشار الأوبئة في الماضي هو الإعتماد على الطب الشعبي لمواجهة الوباء من ما يؤدي إلى هلاك الجسد وتكاثر الضحايا، وما فاقم هذه المخاطر في الماضي هو عدم توفر الطب الحديث في منطقة الخليج فكانت أبسط الأمراض كالحصبة والملاريا قد تؤدي إلى الوفاة فكيف بأصعبها؟
 إضافةِ إلى عدم توافر الطب الحديث، كان للفقر دور في إنتشار الأوبئة ولم تقتصر آثار هذه الأمراض على الإنسان بل هناك آثار إقتصادية وإجتماعية وبيئية مُدمر وهناك دراسات تثبت خطورة الأوبئة على الثروة البشرية والحيوانية والموارد الطبيعية، ومن الأمراض الوبائية في القرن التاسع عشر: مرض جدري الماء وإلتهاب الكبد الوبائي وحمى التيفوئيد والكوليرا والسل والحمى الشوكية والحصبة والإنفلزنزا الأسبانية والطاعون، ظهرت هذه الأوبئة في الخليج العربي وهناك مناطق معينة إنتشر فيها الوباء أكثر من غيرها وهناك أيضاً عوامل ساعدت على إنتشار هذه الاوبئة ومنها: السفر الدولي والتجارة وموسم الحج.

Epidemics in pre-industrial Europe: Impacts of climate change, economic well-being, and population

Academic attention is increasing to examine historical epidemics from the perspective of human ecology. Studies are still inadequate, however, from a macro-scale perspective (quantitative studies in particular) focusing on long-term dynamics of epidemics in pre-industrial Europe. In this study, two pathways in Europe during AD1350–1850, namely, “climate plus economy on epidemics” and “climate plus population on epidemics”, were empirically investigated via correlation, multivariate regression analysis, and autoregressive exogenous (ARX) analysis under the framework of human ecology. The statistical findings show that climate change, particularly cooling, affected epidemics significantly. Economic well-being was the important factor that influenced the dynamics of epidemics alongside climate change. Furthermore, if considering climatic impacts, population was also significant, but its effects had limited importance on epidemics compared with economic well-being. This study not only supplements current understanding of epidemic mechanisms within the context of human ecology, but also examines the economy–epidemic link from a pre-industrial perspective to consider the role of economy in epidemic outbreaks in the modern time. Lessons from macro-history will provide historical references to current societies when facing to unprecedented pandemic globally. • Climate change, particularly cooling, significantly affected the epidemics. • Economic well-being was the influential to the epidemics alongside climate change. • Population is less significant to epidemics if compared with economic well-being. • The climate–economy–epidemic link was reviewed from a pre-industrial perspective.

Epidemics, Inequality, and Poverty in Preindustrial and Early Industrial Times

Recent research has explored the distributive consequences of major historical epidemics, and the current crisis triggered by COVID-19 prompts us to look at the past for insights about how pandemics can affect inequalities in income, wealth, and health. The fourteenth-century Black Death, which is usually believed to have led to a significant reduction in economic inequality, has attracted the greatest attention. However, the picture becomes much more complex if other epidemics are considered. This article covers the worst epidemics of preindustrial times, from the Plague of Justinian of 540–41 to the last great European plagues of the seventeenth century, as well as the cholera waves of the nineteenth. It shows how the distributive outcomes of lethal epidemics do not only depend upon mortality rates, but are mediated by a range of factors, chief among them the institutional framework in place at the onset of each crisis. It then explores how past epidemics affected poverty, arguing that highly lethal epidemics could reduce its prevalence through two deeply different mechanisms: redistribution toward the poor or extermination of the poor. It concludes by recalling the historical connection between the progressive weakening and spacing in time of lethal epidemics and improvements in life expectancy, and by discussing how epidemics affected inequality in health and living standards. (JEL D31, I12, I14, I30, N30, J11, J31)

Pandemic, Creating a Usable Past: Epidemic History, COVID-19, and the Future of Health and Pandemic Histories.

Pandemic, Creating a Usable Past: Epidemic History, COVID-19, and the Future of Health and Pandemic Histories.

Unprecedented Times: A Historiography of Pandemics in North American Education

ABSTRACT This essay offers a review of the ways that North American historians have approached the history of epidemics in education to date and it identifies a few key historiographical trends and research questions raised by American and Canadian work. The history of epidemics in education is located at the intersection of three vibrant fields of study: the history of science and medicine, the history of education, and the history of disability. The essay explores how, in the context of North American scholarship, the history of education and epidemics emerges out of broader discussions from those fields. Recent historical studies of pandemics, raised after the outbreak of COVID-19, are also used to introduce the topic.

The pathogenic city: disease, dirt and the planning of Dublin’s Wholesale Fruit and Vegetable Markets

ABSTRACT Public health crises always have a visual impact on cities. Examples can be short lived, such as the signage encouraging social distancing during the Covid-19 pandemic. Other effects can be long lasting. During waves of epidemics over the nineteenth century in Dublin, Ireland, officials responded with projects such as fever hospitals. At first glance, market halls do not seem to correspond with these kinds of emergency initiatives. Markets are lasting fixtures of everyday life in cities, and they typically embody notions of sustenance and nourishment rather than disease. Yet in Dublin, the planning of covered markets is bound to the histories of infectious disease and epidemics. This article uses the storey of one market hall in Dublin, the City Wholesale Fruit and Vegetable Markets, as a lens to elucidate the intersection of public health and urban planning between 1850 and 1900. Market halls are rarely planned as clean slates: historically, they typically stand in places that hold close connections to buying and selling. As such, purpose-built halls should not be read simply as urban, commercial interventions, but instead as buildings that monumentalize in three dimensions emergent social and moral conventions about public health in the context of the crowded city.