Historical Distribution Research Articles

The Tabanidae (Diptera) in Brazil: Historical aspects, diversity and distribution

The Tabanidae (Diptera) in Brazil: Historical aspects, diversity and distribution

Bayesian quantile regression for streaming data

<p>Quantile regression has been widely used in many fields because of its robustness and comprehensiveness. However, it remains challenging to perform the quantile regression (QR) of streaming data by a conventional methods, as they are all based on the assumption that the memory can fit all the data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a Bayesian QR approach for streaming data, in which the posterior distribution was updated by utilizing the aggregated statistics of current and historical data. In addition, theoretical results are presented to confirm that the streaming posterior distribution is theoretically equivalent to the orcale posterior distribution calculated using the entire dataset together. Moreover, we provide an algorithmic procedure for the proposed method. The algorithm shows that our proposed method only needs to store the parameters of historical posterior distribution of streaming data. Thus, it is computationally simple and not storage-intensive. Both simulations and real data analysis are conducted to illustrate the good performance of the proposed method.</p>

Reconstructing the historical distribution of diffusion equation with poly-fractional operator in multi-dimensional space

Reconstructing the historical distribution of diffusion equation with poly-fractional operator in multi-dimensional space

Value at Risk Estimation for Non-Gaussian Distributions

This paper presents a methodology for computing Value at Risk for Önancial as- sets that does not follow a normal distribution of return. A back-testing approach have been applied in order to select the best theoretical non-Gaussian distributions that can explain the behavior of the empirical data. In this study, Cauchy, Laplace, Logistic and Beta dis- tributions have been considered. As benchmark, historical distribution, and Extreme Value Theory (EVT) method have been used. The experiment suggests di§erences in estimation of over 5 times between one method and another.

Updating the distribution data of the Red squirrel (Sciurus vulgaris Linnaeus, 1758) in the province of Málaga (southern Spain)

Between 2019 and 2022 we carried out a survey to update the distribution data of the red squirrel in the province of Málaga. Fifteen years after the last elaboration of the distribution atlas, it was likely that this forest species had expanded in step with the increase in forest mass in the province. The results show that the species has expanded in the province, increasing its distribution range between 24.8% and 27.7% and almost tripling the number of UTM grid squares. The species has colonised the region of Antequera, the mountains of the Arco Calizo Central and the banks of the Genil River in the north of the province. To the south it has expanded towards the urban environments of the city of Málaga and has begun its expansion towards the west. In the extreme northeast, the species has made less progress, colonising some new areas just beyond the limits of the Sierra Tejada, Almijara and Alhama Natural Park. Most of the new populations are geographically closer to the population at Montes de Málaga, which seems to have served as the main source population. In the eastern area, subtropical crops seem to function as a barrier limiting further expansion. We propose and discuss a series of hypotheses regarding the origin of the population and the need to undertake future studies of historical, genetic, and epidemiological distribution models.

The impact of climate change on plant distribution and niche dynamics over the past 250 years in Switzerland

Herbarium specimens provide an irreplaceable source of historical plant distribution data, enabling analysis of changes in plant distribution spanning centuries. Most studies on plant distribution shifts focus on recent decades and rare species, especially along elevational gradients. We examined about 2000 historical herbarium specimens from the Botanical Garden of the University of Bern, representing 30 plant species from five Swiss lowland habitats (six species per habitat) dating back to 1768 and covering all Swiss cantons. All historical data were transcribed, georeferenced and then combined with current data resulting in about 170 000 plant records over 250 years. Combined with climatic data from the same period, we found that all habitats increased their potential distribution area with a significant gain in the semi-arid grasslands (+8.15 %, p-value = 0.031). On species level, 75 % of the selected species expanded their distribution, while 25 % of the species retracted. Despite these shifts, 90–99.6 % niche stability was observed between historical and current climatic niches across all species. Shifts in co-occurring species were specific to the species, not to the habitat. The consistent overlap in historical and current climatic niches suggest that distribution expansion is due to the growth of areas with suitable climates, pointing to climate change as a driving factor for plant distribution changes over the past 250 years.

Recovering the Heat Distribution on the Surface of a Two-dimensional Finite Slab from Interior Data in the Nonhomogeneous Case

We considered the two – dimensional problem of reconstructing the historical distribution on the surface of a finite slab from interior temperature data in the nonhomogeneous case. The problem is ill – posed. So, a regularization is essential. Using the integration truncation method, we have got the estimation of the error between the regularized solution and the exact solution in the nonhomogeneous case. Then, we provided a numerical experiment for illustration ofthe theoretically obtained results.

Ecological niche modeling shed light on new insights of the speciation processes and historical distribution of Japanese fire-bellied newt Cynops pyrrhogaster (Amphibia: Urodela)

Environmental factors play vital roles in determining the range of organisms and application of selective pressures that drive their evolution. Investigation of how these ecological factors influence the diversification of species has long been a point of interest among ecologists. In this study, we used climate-based ecological niche models to project the suitable distributions of four main clades of Japanese fire-bellied newt Cynops pyrrhogaster at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), Mid-Holocene (MH), and the present. Then we tested hypotheses regarding ecological niche diversification and the processes of diversification among these clades. The potential distribution of the Northern clade encompassed the Tohoku and Kanto districts, along with the northeastern Chubu district. The Central clade had a potential distribution across the Chubu and Kinki districts, and northeastern Chugoku district. The range of the Western clade was projected to encompass Kyushu, Shikoku, the southern Kinki region, and western Chugoku. Finally, the projected distribution of the Southern clade was limited to the southern Kyushu district. The lack of equivalent niches among the tested pairs indicated the absence of ecological interchangeability among the clades. The results of a similarity test supported significant parapatric divergence of the Northern and Central clades from the remaining clades. On the other hand, the Western and Southern clades probably underwent divergence through an allopatric process. Our paleomodels suggest that the distribution of C. pyrrhogaster may have been reduced and fragmented along the coastal regions during the LGM. The distribution models for the MH estimated a suitable area larger than for the LGM, but smaller than predicted by the current distribution. Our findings serve as a warning that the potential distributions of species could be significantly influenced by future climate change.

Hog deer Axis porcinus reclaiming historical geographical distribution range due to ecological restoration in the Yamuna Biodiversity Park, Delhi, India

Hog deer Axis porcinus reclaiming historical geographical distribution range due to ecological restoration in the Yamuna Biodiversity Park, Delhi, India

The distribution of competitive research grants from the National Institute for Food and Agriculture: A comparison of 1862 land grant universities, 1890 land grant universities, and other institutions

AbstractThis article evaluates the U.S. Department of Agriculture, National Institute for Food and Agriculture (NIFA) competitive grant funding awarded to predominately White 1862 land grant institutions (LGUs), historically Black 1890 LGUs, and non‐land grant institutions. We present the historical distribution of funding for agricultural research. Much of the inquiry centers on the differential funding of the 1862 LGUs, 1890 LGUs, and non‐land grant institutions. We discuss the implications for academic and community stakeholders. Results show that, on average, 1890 LGUs and non‐land grant institutions receive less competitive grant funding than 1862 LGUs for the same award programs. We show that the disparity falls from 2010 to 2019.

Forecasting the spread of an invasive forest‐defoliating insect

AbstractAimBiological invasions are an escalating environmental challenge due to their substantial ecological and socio‐economic consequences. Accurate near‐term forecasts of future areas occupied by an invasive species could enhance the efficiency and efficacy of invasion monitoring and management but spread forecasting models have been developed and tested for few invasive species thus far.LocationNortheastern USA.MethodsWe developed a quantitative model to forecast 1‐year‐ahead occupancy of Lymantria dispar dispar, an expanding invasive forest insect introduced into the eastern United States in 1869 that causes large‐scale defoliation of forests. We validated and tested the model using historical distribution and density data from a large‐scale network of pheromone‐baited traps. We first assessed how forecast accuracy depended on trap catch density thresholds for determining occupancy and on the spatial scale of local connectivity measures. Next, we tested how increasing the computational complexity and biological detail encoded in the models affected prediction accuracy.ResultsModels using lower occupancy thresholds and measuring connectivity over shorter distances tended to perform best. A simple model using only coarse and generic representations of habitat suitability and local diffusive spread potential performed at least as well as more complex models. Our best models achieved total accuracy and true‐positive rates exceeding 95%.ConclusionsOur baseline model illustrates the utility of a mechanistic model to forecast year‐to‐year occupancy dynamics of L. dispar. Near‐term spread forecasting can be a valuable tool for invasion management, even for species without detailed a priori ecological knowledge.

Operational Storm Surge Forecasting at the National Hurricane Center: The Case for Probabilistic Guidance and the Evaluation of Improved Storm Size Forecasts Used to Define the Wind Forcing

Abstract The primary source of guidance used by the Storm Surge Unit (SSU) at the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for issuing storm surge watches and warnings is the Probabilistic Tropical Storm Surge model (P-Surge). P-Surge is an ensemble of Sea, Lake, and Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) model forecasts that is generated based on historical error distributions from NHC official forecasts. A probabilistic framework is used for operational storm surge forecasting to account for uncertainty related to the tropical cyclone track and wind forcing. Previous studies have shown that the size of a storm’s wind field is an important factor that can affect storm surge. A simple radius of maximum wind (RMW) prediction scheme was developed to forecast RMW based on NHC forecast parameters. Verification results indicate this scheme is an improvement over the RMW forecasts used by previous versions of P-Surge. To test the impact of the updated RMW forecasts in P-Surge, retrospective cases were selected from 25 storms from 2008 to 2020 that had an adequate number of observations. Evaluation of P-Surge forecasts using these improved RMW forecasts shows that the probability of detection is higher for most probability of exceedance thresholds. In addition, the forecast reliability is improved, and there is an increase in the number of high probability forecasts for extreme events at longer lead times. The improved RMW forecasts were recently incorporated into the operational version of P-Surge (v2.9), and serve as an important step toward extending the lead time of skillful and reliable storm surge forecasts.

European River Lamprey Lampetrafluviatilis (Petromyzontidae) of the Pskov Lakeland: Current State of Isolated Populations

Small freshwater (resident) populations of the European river lamprey Lampetrafluviatilis from an isolated from the sea upper part of a river system with numerous lakes (the upper reaches of tributaries of the Daugava River and Lake Peipus, Pskov Oblast, Russia) have been studied. Adult individuals of the lamprey have been attributed to common and large size groups; adults are similar to other resident lamprey from the Baltic Sea basin. The presence of larvae of different size and age groups indicates regular spawning of the European river lamprey in the studied watersheds. Analysis of the modern and historical (before the isolation) distribution of lamprey revealed a reduction in habitats and a decrease in the number of individuals. Dam-associated disruption of migration routes led to the disappearance of anadromous form, and consequently, disappearance of resident lamprey from most of the studied waterbodies. We attribute the decrease in the number of rivers inhabited by lamprey and abundance of the lamprey both to anthropogenic factors (direct blocking of an access of anadromous form of the lamprey to spawning grounds by hydraulic construction) and to the characteristics of the studied area. The richness of the river system with lentic waterbodies makes it suitable for lamprey inhabitation with an influx of large anadromous individuals capable of crossing such reservoirs in search of spawning sites.

Modelling the historical distribution of schistosomiasis-transmitting snails in South Africa using ecological niche models.

Schistosomiasis is a vector-borne disease transmitted by freshwater snails and is prevalent in rural areas with poor sanitation and no access to tap water. Three snail species are known to transmit schistosomiasis in South Africa (SA), namely Biomphalaria pfeifferi, Bulinus globosus and Bulinus africanus. In 2003, a predicted prevalence of 70% was reported in tropical climates in SA. Temperature and rainfall variability can alter schistosomiasis-transmitting snails' development by increasing or decreasing their abundance and geographical distribution. This study aimed to map the historical distribution of schistosomiasis from 1950 to 2006 in SA. The snail sampling data were obtained from the historical National Snail Freshwater Collection (NFSC). Bioclimatic variables were extracted using ERA 5 reanalysis data provided by the Copernicus Climate Change Service. In this study, we used 19 bioclimatic and four soil variables. The temporal aggregation was the mean climatological period pre-calculated over the 40-year reference period with a spatial resolution of 0.5° x 0.5°. Multicollinearity was reduced by calculating the Variance Inflation Factor Core (VIF), and highly correlated variables (> 0.85) were excluded. To obtain an "ensemble" and avoid the integration of weak models, we averaged predictions using the True Skill Statistical (TSS) method. Results showed that the ensemble model achieved the highest Area Under the Curve (AUC) scores (0.99). For B. africanus, precipitation-related variables contributed to determining the suitability for schistosomiasis. Temperature and precipitation-related variables influenced the distribution of B. globosus in all three models. Biomphalaria pfeifferi showed that Temperature Seasonality (bio4) contributed the most (47%) in all three models. According to the models, suitable areas for transmitting schistosomiasis were in the eastern regions of South Africa. Temperature and rainfall can impact the transmission and distribution of schistosomiasis in SA. The results will enable us to develop future projections for Schistosoma in SA based on climate scenarios.

A Tibetan group from Ngawa Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture, southwest China, is rich in genetic polymorphisms at 36 autosomal STR loci and shares a complex genetic structure with other Chinese populations

The Tibetan people are ancient and populous, constituting the seventh-largest of the fifty-five ethnic minority groups in China. The Ngawa Tibetan and Qiang Autonomous Prefecture (NTQAP), situated on the border of northwest and southwest China, has its distinct group relationships. Short tandem repeat (STR) is extremely polymorphic and extensively used in the application of forensic medicine and population genetics. However, it is not clear the genetic information including linkage disequilibrium (LD) by 36 autosomal STR (A-STR) markers in the Tibetan group from NTQAP. The Tibetan population from NTQAP of southwest China was examined for 36 A-STR loci in the research. Every marker across the 36 A-STR loci was consistent with Hardy–Weinberg equilibrium (HWE). The results of the calculation revealed that the total discrimination power (TDP) is 1–2.2552 × 10−42 and the cumulative probability of exclusion (CPE) is 1–1.3031 × 10−16. Subsequently, a total of 345 alleles with allelic frequencies ranging from 0.00382 to 0.55343 were identified, and the allelic numbers varied from 5 in both the TH01 and TPOX markers to 28 in the SE33 locus. The Ngawa Tibetan population, along with other Chinese populations, exhibited influences from historical factors and regional distribution, as indicated by the results of population genetics analysis. We thus first explored the genetic characteristics and correlated forensic parameters of the 36 A-STR markers in NTQAP to fill the gap in the Tibetan population. It was discovered that these 36 autosomal STR markers supplemented forensic STR databases and offered extremely valuable polymorphisms for Chinese forensic applications, such as parentage testing and personal identification. Moreover, the study would contribute additional information regarding the substructure and diversity in the Chinese population.

Nature reserves and reforestation expend the potential habitats for endangered plants: A model study in Cangshan, China

The loss of biodiversity is one of the greatest challenges in the world. Nature Reserves are widely recognized as an effective strategy to protect against biodiversity crises. Over the past 40 years, the vegetation coverage of the Cangshan Reserve and its surrounding areas has increased significantly largely due to the reforestation project. In this study, we specifically evaluated the capacity of nature reserves and reforestation efforts to increase the area of potential habitats for endangered plants, using historical and current species distribution models (SDM). Our findings revealed that the highly suitable area for endangered species constituted 31.5 % of Cangshan Reserve and 3.3 % of the total study area in 1980 model. However, in the 2020 model, the highly suitable area increased to 37.9 % of Cangshan Reserve and 3.9 % of the total area. In total, the highly suitable area in 2020 exceeded that of 1980 by 37.12 km2. The significant increase of the highly suitable area can be attributed to the plantations within the Cangshan Reserve. Despite a noted increase in vegetation cover outside the reserve, the present study did not find a significant expansion in suitable habitats outside Cangshan Reserve. In conclusion, our study suggests that reforestation policy alone may not suffice to expand the potential habitats for endangered plants, a combined approach involving the establishment of nature reserves and the implementation of reforestation programs may prove to be a more effective strategy in the increase of potential habitats for these rare and endangered plants.

Mapping the potential distribution of the principal vector of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus Hyalomma marginatum in the Old World.

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is the most widely distributed tick-borne viral disease in humans and is caused by the Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV). The virus has a broader distribution, expanding from western China and South Asia to the Middle East, southeast Europe, and Africa. The historical known distribution of the CCHFV vector Hyalomma marginatum in Europe includes most of the Mediterranean and the Balkan countries, Ukraine, and southern Russia. Further expansion of its potential distribution may have occurred in and out of the Mediterranean region. This study updated the distributional map of the principal vector of CCHFV, H. marginatum, in the Old World using an ecological niche modeling approach based on occurrence records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and a set of covariates. The model predicted higher suitability of H. marginatum occurrences in diverse regions of Africa and Asia. Furthermore, the model estimated the environmental suitability of H. marginatum across Europe. On a continental scale, the model anticipated a widespread potential distribution encompassing the southern, western, central, and eastern parts of Europe, reaching as far north as the southern regions of Scandinavian countries. The distribution of H. marginatum also covered countries across Central Europe where the species is not autochthonous. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random expectations (p < 0.001). Based on the model results, climatic conditions could hamper the successful overwintering of H. marginatum and their survival as adults in many regions of the Old World. Regular updates of the models are still required to continually assess the areas at risk using up-to-date occurrence and climatic data in present-day and future conditions.

Neotypification, distribution, and conservation status of Austrocylindropuntia cylindrica (Cactaceae)

Austrocylindropuntia cylindrica (Cactaceae) is neotypified based on a specimen preserved at ASU (isoneotype at DES) collected in the northern Andean region of Ecuador. The few details reported in the original description and its historical and current distribution suggest that the species was most likely originally collected from Ecuador rather than Peru. Additionally, an updated map of the distribution of A. cylindrica in the Andean region is presented.

Environmental DNA-based biomonitoring of Cuban Crocodylus and their accompanying vertebrate fauna from Zapata Swamp, Cuba

Crocodylians globally face considerable challenges, including population decline and extensive habitat modification. Close monitoring of crocodylian populations and their habitats is imperative for the timely detection of population trends, especially in response to management interventions. Here we use eDNA metabarcoding to identify the Critically Endangered Crocodylus rhombifer and the Vulnerable C. acutus, as well as vertebrate community diversity, in Cuba’s Zapata Swamp. We tested four different primer sets, including those used previously in Crocodylus population genetic and phylogenetic research, for their efficiency at detecting crocodylian eDNA. We detected C. rhombifer eDNA in 11 out of 15 sampled locations within its historical geographic distribution. We found that data analyses using the VertCOI primers and the mBRAVE bioinformatics pipeline were the most effective molecular marker and pipeline combination for identifying this species from environmental samples. We also identified 55 vertebrate species in environmental samples across the four bioinformatics pipelines— ~ 85% known to be present in the Zapata ecosystem. Among them were eight species previously undetected in the area and eight alien species, including known predators of hatchling crocodiles (e.g., Clarias sp.) and egg predators (e.g., Mus musculus). This study highlights eDNA metabarcoding as a powerful tool for crocodylian biomonitoring within fragile and diverse ecosystems, particularly where fast, non-invasive methods permit detection in economically important areas and will lead to a better understanding of complex human-crocodile interactions and evaluate habitat suitability for potential reintroductions or recovery programs for threatened crocodylian species.

Past and present biomass consumption by herbivores and fire across productivity gradients in North America

Herbivores and fire are important consumers of plant biomass that influence vegetation structure, nutrient cycling, and biodiversity globally. Departures from historic biomass consumption patterns due to wild herbivore losses, livestock proliferation, and altered fire regimes can have critical ecological consequences. We set out to (i) understand how consumer dominance and prevalence responded to spatial and temporal moisture gradients in Holocene North America and (ii) examine how past and present consumer dominance patterns in North America compare to less altered consumer regimes of modern Sub-Saharan Africa. We developed long-term records of bison abundance and biomass burning in Holocene midcontinent North America and compared these records to reconstructions of moisture availability and vegetation structure. We used these reconstructions to characterize bison and fire prevalence across associated moisture and vegetation gradients. We found that bison herbivory dominated biomass consumption in dry settings whereas fire dominated in wetter environments. Historical distributions of herbivory and burning in midcontinent North America resemble those of contemporary Sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting disturbance feedbacks and interactions regulate long-term consumer dynamics. Comparisons of consumer dynamics in contemporary North America with Holocene North America and Sub-Saharan Africa also reveal that fire is functionally absent from regions where it was once common, with profound ecological implications.