Karakoram Himalaya Research Articles

Linking basin-scale hydrology with climatic parameters in western Himalaya: Application of satellite data, temperature index modelling and in-situ observations

Due to limited spatial and temporal in-situ runoff data availability, Himalaya-Karakoram (HK) glaciohydrology has a significant knowledge gap between large-scale and small-scale runoff modelling studies. This study reconstructs longest basin-wide runoff series in Chandra-Bhaga Basin by applying a high-resolution glaciohydrological model SPHY (Spatial Processes in Hydrology) over 1950–2022. Two-tier model calibration is done using in-situ basin-wide runoff (1973–2006) and MODIS snow cover (2003–2018). Model validation is done against in-situ Chhota Shigri Glacier catchment-wide runoff (2010–2015). The modelled mean annual basin-wide runoff is 60.21 ± 6.17 m3/s over 1950–2022, with maximum runoff in summer-monsoon months, peaking in July (182.69 m3/s). Glacier runoff (ice melt + snowmelt over glacier) contributes maximum (39%) followed by equal contributions from snowmelt runoff from non-glacierized basin area and baseflow (25%), while rainfall-runoff contributes minimum (11 %) to total runoff. There is a significant volumetric increase by ∼7% from pre- (59.17 m3/s) to post-2000 (63.47 m3/s) mainly because of early onset of snowmelt post-2000 that resulted in a hydrograph shift by ∼25 days earlier in spring. The glacier runoff is overestimated by 3% from RGI 7.0 inventory compared to different manually delineated inventories over 1950–2022, because of higher glacierized area from RGI 7.0. The precipitation shows a negative trend, but total runoff shows a positive trend due to positive trend of temperature that resulted in more glacier runoff and rainfall-runoff for basin over last 72 years. Basin-wide runoff is mainly governed by summer temperature which directly controls the amount of glacier and snowmelt runoffs and is supported by summer rainfall. This study highlights importance of basin-scale model calibration with in-situ data in large scale studies and stresses the need for in-situ observations in high-altitude Himalayan region. Basin-scale calibrated model parameters are transferable to glacier catchment scale within Chandra-Bhaga Basin, showing the model robustness at a small catchment scale.

Analysis of hydrological responses using semi-distributed conceptual models in a mountainous catchment in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

ABSTRACT The Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya region, an important global water unit, is the origin of 10 major river basins. The Upper Indus basin, a part of this region, is a primary water source for the downstream population and is primarily fed by snow and glacier melt. Four semi-distributed conceptual hydrological models were used to understand this basin’s hydrological responses. As the observed data was unavailable, global gridded precipitation and discharge data from the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) were used to set up the model at the catchment outlet. Degree-day factor (DDF)-based snow and glacier modules are incorporated into the model structure to measure melt contribution. The results showed very good performance of all four models with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.75, with the GR4J model exhibiting superior performance. The dominance of snow and glacier melt during summer monsoon affects the peak discharge and offers insights for investigations at the sub-basin scale.

Stress regimes in the Himalaya–Karakoram–Tibet, the western part of India–Eurasia collision: stress field implications based on focal mechanism solution data

SUMMARY The stress regime patterns of high-seismically active regions within the western part of the India–Eurasia collision, spanning from 67° E to 83° E and 27° N to 39° N, are elucidated through analysis of 684 Focal Mechanism Solutions from 1962 to 2021. Eighteen seismically active zones used for the stress tensor inversion, are defined based on the spatial extent of the seismicity, the depth distribution of seismic events, focal mechanism studies, and seismotectonics of the region. The defined regimes are: (1) Sulaiman Ranges and Lobe Region, (2) Hindukush, (3) Pamir, (4) Nanga Parbat Syntaxis, (5) Hazara Syntaxis, (6) Kashmir–Zanskar region, (7) Kangra–Chamba, (8) Kinnaur and Kaurik–Chango fault zone (KCFZ), (9) Garhwal, (10) Kumaon, (11) Karakoram fault zone, and (12) Gozha–Ashikule fault zone. Seismicity is reported only in the crust or up to mid-crust in most of the regions, except for the Pamir and Hindukush, where the seismicity can be observed down to 160 and 280 km, respectively. We report a clockwise rotation of the maximum horizontal stress (SHmax) of about 42° and 21° in the Hindukush and Pamir regions, respectively. with increasing focal depths from north west to north. The region where major and strong earthquakes occur indicates pure compressive regimes. Most of the zones support transpressive and transtensional tectonics with a few zones by normal and strike-slip fault regimes. Regions like Nanga Parbat syntaxis, Kinnaur, KCFZ, and Zanskar are exceptions, where extensional and transformational tectonic features dominate. Plate convergence force has less effect on defining the stress regime in the Karakoram fault zone and Gozha–Ashikule regions, which display transtensional and pure extensional regimes, respectively. Underthrusting of the Indian plate through complex tectonics is indicated by dominant compression stresses with evidences of normal, strike-slip, and oblique fault mechanisms.

Contributions of Kenneth Mason to the physical geography of Himalaya and Karakoram

In this paper, the legacy of Kenneth Mason (1887–1976) in the geography of the Himalaya-Karakoram (H-K) region has been thoroughly examined. Mason was a distinguished British geographer, surveyor, soldier, and mountaineer. He led the Indo-Russian Triangulation Connection and pioneered the use of stereoscopic photography in the Pamirs, laying the groundwork for precise geographical records. His detailed surveys and mappings of the Shaksgam Valley and Aghil Ranges corrected longstanding cartographic inaccuracies and presented accurate topographical details through terrestrial stereo photogrammetry. Mason critically assessed and recommended improvements for the depiction of glaciers and geomorphic features on Survey of India maps, encouraging the training of surveyors in glacial morphology. He contributed significantly to standardising geographical terms and nomenclature within the Karakoram Range. Mason also played a crucial role in founding the Himalayan Club and the Himalayan Journal. His studies on glacier movements and advocacy for monitoring systems to prevent natural disasters exhibit his profound commitment to minimising human life and infrastructure loss. Mason’s comprehensive work boosted scientific investigation in the H-K region and laid a foundation for ongoing and future research in these remote regions, paving the way for future generations of explorers, researchers, and enthusiasts.

REMOglacier Model and its Application in Karakoram Himalayas

REMOglacier Model and its Application in Karakoram Himalayas

Transboundary hazard and downstream impact of glacial lakes in Hindu-Kush Karakoram Himalayas

Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) can generate catastrophic flash floods when the damming structure is breached or overtopped. Some of these glacial lakes are located in transboundary regions where floods originating from the lake in one country could inundate a neighboring country, devastating the population and infrastructure of both nations and influencing socio-political relationships. Therefore, assessing the lakes' hazard is crucial. This study investigates transboundary glacial lakes, considering their GLOF hazard, including potential mass movement intrusion, moraine's stability, upstream and downstream process cascades, downstream flood extents, and the exposure and vulnerability of the downstream infrastructure and affected population. GLOF exposure assessments were carried out to identify exposed buildings, bridges, and hydropower systems in transboundary regions. China currently has the highest number of transboundary lakes, with most of them potentially impacting India and Nepal. Most of the transboundary lakes in China, and many in India and Nepal, are susceptible to mass movements. Among the 230 transboundary glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush Karakoram Himalaya, 55 lakes can potentially impact other glacial lakes along their flow path, creating a cascade of events. Five transboundary lakes could potentially impact over 1000 buildings, and 16 lakes could impact over 500 buildings. A total of 35 lakes can impact at least one hydropower station along their flow path, and 4 lakes can impact two hydropower stations. This research emphasizes the critical importance of conducting comprehensive risk analyses of GLOFs in transboundary regions to inform policy-makers. It calls for investing in broad-scale assessments and data-driven decision-making for mitigating and adapting to GLOF risks effectively. Finally, by raising awareness among policy-makers, the study aims to drive actions that safeguard communities and infrastructure vulnerable to GLOF.

Implications of Accuracy of Global Glacier Inventories in Hydrological Modeling: A Case Study of the Western Himalayan Mountain Range

Alpine glaciers are a fundamental component of the cryosphere and are significantly sensitive to climate change. One such region is the Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) region, which contains more than 40,000 glaciers. There are more than 12 glacier inventories available covering parts of (or the entire) HKH region, but these show significant uncertainties regarding the extent of glaciers. Researchers have used different glacier inventories without assessing their accuracy. This study, therefore, assessed the implications of the accuracy of global glacier inventories in hydrological modeling and future water resource planning. The accuracy assessment of most commonly used two global glacier inventories (Global Land Ice Monitoring from Space-GLIMS v 2.0 and Randolph Glacier Inventory-RGI v 6.0) has been carried out for three sub-basins of the Upper Indus Basin—the Swat, the Chitral, and the Kabul River basins (combined, this is referred to as the Great Kabul River Basin)—with a total basin area of 94,552.86 km2. Glacier outlines have been compared with various Landsat 7 ETM+, Landsat 8, high-resolution Google Earth images, and manually digitized debris-covered glacier outlines during different years. The total glacier area for the Great Kabul River Basin derived from RGI and GLIMS is estimated to be 2120.35 km2 and 1789.94 km2, respectively, which was a difference of 16.9%. Despite being sub-basins of the Great Kabul River Basin, the Swat, and the Chitral River basins were different by 54.74% and 19.71%, respectively, between the two inventories, with a greater glacierized area provided by RGI, whereas the Kabul River basin was different by 54.72%, with greater glacierized area provided by GLIMS. The results and analysis show that GLIMS underestimates glacier outlines in the Swat and the Chitral basins and overestimates glacier extents in the Kabul River basin. The underestimation is mainly due to the non-representation of debris-covered glaciers. The overestimation in GLIMS data is due to the digitization of seasonal snow as part of the glaciers. The use of underestimated GLIMS outlines may result in 5–10% underestimation of glacier-melt contribution to flows in the Swat River basin, while an underestimation of 7% to 15% is expected in the Chitral River Basin, all compared to RGI v 6.0 outlines. The overestimation of glacier-melt contribution to flows in the Kabul River basin is insignificant (1% to 2%) using GLIMS data. In summary, the use of the GLIMS inventory will lead to underestimated flows and show that the Great Kabul River Basin (particularly the Chitral River Basin) is less sensitive to climate change effects. Thus, the current study recommends the use of RGI v 6.0 (best glacier inventory) to revisit the existing biased hydro-climate studies and to improve future hydro-climate studies with the concomitant rectification of the MODIS snow coverage data. The use of the best glacier inventory will provide the best estimates of flow sensitivity to climate change and will result in well-informed decision-making, precise and accurate policies, and sustainable water resource management in the study area. The methodology adopted in the current study may also be used in nearby areas with similar hydro-climate conditions, as well as for the most recently released RGI v 7.0 data.

Evolution of Supraglacial Lakes from 1990 to 2020 in the Himalaya–Karakoram Region Using Cloud-Based Google Earth Engine Platform

Evolution of Supraglacial Lakes from 1990 to 2020 in the Himalaya–Karakoram Region Using Cloud-Based Google Earth Engine Platform

Causes and effects of Shisper glacial lake outburst flood event in Karakoram in 2022

Karakoram Himalayas are vulnerable to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), which cause catastrophic floods in the surrounding areas. The increasing natural and anthropogenic activities, especially in the Indo-Gangetic Plains at the southern flank of the towering Himalayas, could be the cause of climate change affecting the frequency of the natural hazards in the Himalayas. In the present study, a detailed analysis of the Shisper Lake breach of 7 May 2022 is carried out using satellite remote sensing. A decreasing trend in the glacial mass balance is observed between 2017 and 2021; in this period, frequent GLOF episodes occurred. A pronounced decline in the snow cover and glacial debris (before the cascade) and an abnormal increase in land surface temperature (LST) retrieved from satellite data could be responsible for the enhanced snow/glacial melting prior to the breach. Alteration in glacial mobility (cm/12 days) is observed at the locations where the glacier melts due to an increase in LST with increased debris cover. In the paper, we have studied changes in water quality and land cover along the stream after the GLOF. An increment in normalized difference turbidity index (NDTI) is observed before the flood showing turbulence and sediment load. Increased glacial melt contribution into the stream results in increased flow rate and decreased water quality as observed through normalized difference water index (NDWI) and normalized difference chlorophyll index (NDCI), near the Karakoram Highway Bridge. Sentinel-1 backscatter coefficient indicates increased discharge from the melting of glaciers. A significant reduction in co-flood coherence is observed, attributed to the bridge collapse and severe bank erosion.

Analysing the elevation-distributed hydro-climatic regime of the snow covered and glacierised Hunza Basin in the upper Indus

In the high altitude Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) mountains, the complex weather system, inaccessible terrain and sparse measurements make the elevation-distributed precipitation and temperature among the most significant unknowns. The elevation-distributed snow and glacier dynamics in the HKH region are also little known, leading to serious concerns about the current and future water availability and management. The Hunza Basin in the HKH region is a scarcely monitored, and snow- and glacier-dominated part of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). The current study investigates the elevation-distributed hydrological regime in the Hunza Basin. The Distance Distribution Dynamics (DDD) model, with a degree day and an energy balance approach for simulating glacial melt, is forced with precipitation derived from two global datasets (ERA5-Land and JRA-55). The mean annual precipitation for 1997–2010 is estimated as 947 and 1,322 mm by ERA5-Land and JRA-55, respectively. The elevation-distributed precipitation estimates showed that the basin receives more precipitation at lower elevations. The daily river flow is well simulated, with KGE ranging between 0.84 and 0.88 and NSE between 0.80 and 0.82. The flow regime in the basin is dominated by glacier melt (45%–48%), followed by snowmelt (30%–34%) and rainfall (21%–23%). The simulated snow cover area (SCA) is in good agreement with the MODIS satellite-derived SCA. The elevation-distributed glacier melt simulation suggested that the glacial melt is highest at the lower elevations, with a maximum in the elevation 3,218–3,755 masl (14%–21% of total melt). The findings improve the understanding of the local hydrology by providing helpful information about the elevation-distributed meltwater contributions, water balance and hydro-climatic regimes. The simulation showed that the DDD model reproduces the hydrological processes satisfactorily for such a data-scarce basin.

Exploring the Spatiotemporal Variation in Light-Absorbing Aerosols and Its Relationship with Meteorology over the Hindukush–Himalaya–Karakoram Region

Light-absorbing aerosols such as black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC), and dust can cause the warming and melting of glaciers by absorbing sunlight. Further research is needed to understand the impact of light-absorbing aerosols on the Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya region in northern Pakistan. Therefore, spatiotemporal variation in absorbing surface mass concentration retrieved from Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, optical properties such as aerosol optical depth (AOD) and absorption aerosol optical depth (AAOD) from the ozone monitoring instrument, and meteorological parameters from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis were investigated over northern Pakistan from 2001 to 2021. The BC concentration was lowest in May and highest in November, having a seasonal maximum peak in winter (0.31 ± 0.04 µg/m3) and minimum peak in spring (0.17 ± 0.01 µg/m3). In addition, OC concentration was found to be greater in November and smaller in April, with a seasonal higher peak in autumn (1.32 ± 0.32 µg/m3) and a lower peak in spring (0.73 ± 0.08 µg/m3). The monthly and seasonal variabilities in BC and OC concentrations are attributed to solid fuels, biomass burning, changes in vegetation, agricultural activities, and meteorology. In contrast, the dust concentration was high in July and low in December, with a seasonal average high concentration in summer (44 ± 9 µg/m3) and low concentration in winter (13 ± 2 µg/m3) due to drier conditions, dust activity, long-range transport, and human activities. Moreover, the seasonal variation in AOD and AAOD was identical and higher in the summer and lower in the winter due to dust aerosol loading and frequent dust activities. AOD and AAOD followed a similar pattern of spatial variation over the study area. Meteorological parameters greatly impact light-absorbing aerosols; therefore, low temperatures in winter increase BC and OC concentrations due to shallow boundary layers, while severe precipitation in spring decreases concentrations. During summer, dry conditions cause soil erosion and increase the amount of dust suspended in the atmosphere, leading to higher AOD and AAOD values. Conversely, higher precipitation rates and speedy winds disperse the dust aerosols in winter, resulting in lower AOD and AAOD values.

Understanding the spatial distribution and plausible genesis of supraglacial debris over the Himalaya-Karakoram region

ABSTRACT The majority of studies discuss the impact of supraglacial debris on glaciers’ health while the rationale behind the formation and regional distribution of supraglacial debris in the Himalayan-Karakoram (H-K) region is sparsely researched. The present study attempts to evaluate the role of meteorological, topographical, and geological parameters to understand the regional distribution and plausible genesis of supraglacial debris in the H-K area. Glacier-wise Fractional Debris Cover (FDC) for ~5000 glaciers have been estimated using LANDSAT-7 data (1999–2001) based on the Normalized Difference Snow Index. The aforementioned parameters, including FDC, are compiled into a comprehensive database and analysed. Moreover, “2-meter air temperature” from ERA-5 climatological data is used to estimate the number of Freeze–Thaw Cycles. Overall meteorological and topographical parameters show a significant correlation with the distribution of FDC across the H-K region, more prominently for glaciers having low FDC (<0.2). FDC distribution shows a strong dependency on glacier hypsometry with the highest FDC for “Very Bottom Heavy” glaciers and the lowest for “Very Top Heavy” glaciers. The glaciers with Limestone bearing lithology have maximum FDC and are sparsely distributed, but the glaciers with quartzite bearing lithology are widely distributed across the region and have lower FDC.

Seasonal Variability of Snow/Ice Facies Using Four Years of RISAT-1 MRS Data Over Glaciers in Himalayan–Karakoram Region

Seasonal Variability of Snow/Ice Facies Using Four Years of RISAT-1 MRS Data Over Glaciers in Himalayan–Karakoram Region

Review of impacts of climate changes on the urban water security of Islamabad, Pakistan

The global warming and subsequent climate change has seriously threatened the glaciers of the Hindukush Karakoram Himalaya (HKH) region. These glaciers provide water to more than 60% people of the 11 countries, including Pakistan. The capital city of Pakistan has witnessed unprecedented urbanisation, population increase, development of new townships and associated economic activities. These challenges, together with climate change, have created severe pressure on the water resources of the city. In this mixed mode research, including questionnaire survey of 20 questions was distributed among the residents of the city online through Google Form. The questions were related to the expected impact of climate change on the availability of water, measures for conservation of water etc. About 205 residents from various parts of the city with different demographic backgrounds responded. This was followed by Focus Group Discussions (FDGs) of the experts and the major challenges to the urban water security of Islamabad with special reference to climate change have been assessed. The research has revealed that the water resources of the city are highly unsustainable. The residents have high concerns about the availability and quality of water. The results have shown that there is a number of governance issues in water distribution systems of the city. There are no organized water conservation strategies employed by City Government. The lack of institutional and policy framework has further complicated the situation. Residents seem willing for metering of water for its conservation. Recommendations have been made to municipal authorities for rational water resource management of the city.

Does the Recent Revival of Western Disturbances Govern the Karakoram Anomaly?

Abstract The global retreat in glaciers is considered to be one of the critical indicators of climate change. However, the glaciers of the Karakoram (KR) region of the Karakoram–Himalayas (KH) stand out because of their divergent response, displaying a surge as opposed to glaciers in other regions. This phenomenon is known as the “Karakoram anomaly.” Although many factors control the establishment and sustenance of the anomaly, the present study establishes winter precipitation associated with western disturbances (WDs) over the KH as one of the key drivers behind its emergence. To examine the role of WDs, a tracking algorithm is applied to 39 seasons (November–March) for three separate (ERA5, MERRA-2, and NCEP-CFSR/CFSv2) reanalysis datasets. The associated reanalysis ensemble statistics of WD properties produced in terms of their intensity, precipitation/snowfall volumes, and wind speed suggest a revival in recent years over the core-anomaly regions. However, the frequency has remained steady. The Karakoram has witnessed a rise of ∼10% in precipitation intensity associated with WDs in recent decades. The high percentage of snowfall received by the Karakoram (∼65%) from WDs relative to the total seasonal snowfall suggests a crucial role in modulating the regional mass-balance anomaly. Simultaneously, the amount of snowfall from non-WD sources in the Karakoram has had a statistically significant decline of ∼17% in recent decades, coinciding with the anomaly period. The enhanced intensity of WDs is found to be associated with changes in increased baroclinic instability and a shift of the subtropical westerly jet mean latitudinal position.

Monitoring snow cover in the Himalayan–Karakoram basins using AWiFS data: significant outcomes

Monitoring snow cover in the Himalayan–Karakoram basins using AWiFS data: significant outcomes

Cryosphere Services to Advance the National SDG Priorities in Himalaya-Karakoram Region

The cryosphere in the Himalaya-Karakoram (H-K) is widespread, and its services significantly affect the SDGs implementation in the region, in particular related to the ‘No poverty’ (SDG 1), ‘zero hunger’ (SDG 2), ‘good health and well-being’ (SDG 3), ‘work and economic’ (SDG 8) and ‘partnership for the goals’ (SDG 17). We here established the networks to illustrate the complex relationship of cryosphere services with national SDG priorities in the countries of H-K, including Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, China, Nepal and Bhutan. The cryosphere services contributing to the national SDG priorities and the key targets were elucidated in line with the centralities of the network. It was found that ‘freshwater’, ‘clean energy’, ‘runoff regulation’, ‘climate regulation’, ‘research and education’ and ‘infrastructure and engineering’ are the services that play critical roles in H-K, and they were then applied to assess the impact of cryosphere services on the national SDG priorities. We subsequently identified a set of principal indicators in relation to the key targets of national SDG priorities, which has the explanation up to 85% of six entry points (SEPs) to advance SDGs of each country in H-K. In conjunction with the centrality of the key targets to be contributed by the overall cryosphere services in the network for each country, the dependency of SEPs on the cryosphere services can be established through principal indicators in association with the national SDG priorities in H-K countries.

Why are the Builders and Operators of Dams and Hydels in The Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya so Poorly Prepared for Hydroclimatic Hazards?

Why are the Builders and Operators of Dams and Hydels in The Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalaya so Poorly Prepared for Hydroclimatic Hazards?

Recent glacier area changes in Himalaya–Karakoram and the impact of latitudinal variation

Recent glacier area changes in Himalaya–Karakoram and the impact of latitudinal variation

Flood Hazard Mapping of Rivers in Snow- and Glacier-Fed Basins of Different Hydrological Regimes Using a Hydrodynamic Model under RCP Scenarios

The global warming trends have accelerated snow and glacier melt in mountainous river basins, which has increased the probability of glacial outburst flooding. Recurrent flood events are a challenge for the developing economy of Pakistan in terms of damage to infrastructure and loss of lives. Flood hazard maps can be used for future flood damage assessment, preparedness, and mitigation. The current study focused on the assessment and mapping of flood-prone areas in small settlements of the major snow- and glacier-fed river basins situated in Hindukush–Karakoram–Himalaya (HKH) under future climate scenarios. The Hydrologic Engineering Center-River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model was used for flood simulation and mapping. The ALOS 12.5 m Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was used to extract river geometry, and the flows generated in these river basins using RCP scenarios were used as the inflow boundary condition. Severe flooding would inundate an area of ~66%, ~86%, ~37% (under mid-21st century), and an area of ~72%, ~93%, ~59% (under late 21st century RCP 8.5 scenario) in the Chitral, Hunza, and Astore river basins, respectively. There is an urgent need to develop a robust flood mitigation plan for the frequent floods occurring in northern Pakistan.