Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks Research Articles

Highly Pathogenic and Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Subtype Viruses in Wild Birds in Ukraine.

There have been three waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in commercial, backyard poultry, and wild birds in Ukraine. The first (2005-2006) and second (2008) waves were caused by H5N1 HPAI virus, with 45 outbreaks among commercial poultry (chickens) and backyard fowl (chickens, ducks, and geese) in four regions of Ukraine (AR Crimea, Kherson, Odesa, and Sumy Oblast). H5N1 HPAI viruses were isolated from dead wild birds: cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) and great crested grebes (Podiceps cristatus) in 2006 and 2008. The third HPAI wave consisted of nine outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI in wild and domestic birds, beginning in November 2016 in the central and south regions (Kherson, Odesa, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, and Mykolaiv Oblast). H5N8 HPAI virus was detected in dead mute swans (Cygnus olor), peacocks (Pavo cristatus) (in zoo), ruddy shelducks (Tadorna ferruginea), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons), and from environmental samples in 2016 and 2017. Wide wild bird surveillance for avian influenza (AI) virus was conducted from 2006 to 2016 in Ukraine regions suspected of being intercontinental (north-south and east-west) flyways. A total of 21 511 samples were collected from 105 species of wild birds representing 27 families and 11 orders. Ninety-five avian influenza (AI) viruses were isolated (including one H5N2 LPAI virus in 2010) from wild birds with a total of 26 antigenic hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) combinations. Fifteen of 16 known avian HA subtypes were isolated. Two H5N8 HPAI viruses (2016-2017) and two H5N2 LPAI viruses (2016) were isolated from wild birds and environmental samples (fresh bird feces) during surveillance before the outbreak in poultry in 2016-2017. The Ukrainian H5N1, H5N8 HPAI, and H5N2 LPAI viruses belong to different H5 phylogenetic groups. Our results demonstrate the great diversity of AI viruses in wild birds in Ukraine, as well as the importance of this region for studying the ecology of avian influenza.

Identification of Areas at Increased Risk of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Occurrence in Commercial Poultry in Poland.

The objective of the study was to identify the areas at increased risk of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) occurrence in commercial poultry in Poland. To identify the risk factors related to the occurrence of HPAI outbreaks, the opinions of Polish experts were combined with literature-driven knowledge. The relative impact of each risk factor was determined using a multicriteria decision analysis approach. The applied model suggests that the greatest risk of HPAI occurrence is concentrated in several counties in the eastern, western, and central parts of the country. The most influential risk actors responsible for HPAI occurrence in Poland included waterfowl density and proximity to waterbodies. The model had a high predictive value (area under the curve = 0.78). The developed spatial risk assessment of HPAI occurrence provides a valuable source of information for risk managers and can contribute to early detection of potential outbreaks of HPAI in poultry.

Surveillance system for avian influenza in wild birds and implications for the improvement with insights into highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks during 2004-2017 in Japan

Surveillance system for avian influenza in wild birds and implications for the improvement with insights into highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks during 2004-2017 in Japan

Estimating within-flock transmission rate parameter for H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus in Minnesota turkey flocks during the 2015 epizootic.

Better control of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks requires deeper understanding of within-flock virus transmission dynamics. For such fatal diseases, daily mortality provides a proxy for disease incidence. We used the daily mortality data collected during the 2015 H5N2 HPAI outbreak in Minnesota turkey flocks to estimate the within-flock transmission rate parameter (β). The number of birds in Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious and Recovered compartments was inferred from the data and used in a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) to estimate the parameters. Novel here was the correction of these data for normal mortality before use in the fitting process. We also used mortality threshold to determine HPAI-like mortality to improve the accuracy of estimates from the back-calculation approach. The estimated β was 3.2 (95% confidence interval (CI) 2.3-4.3) per day with a basic reproduction number of 12.8 (95% CI 9.2-17.2). Although flock-level estimates varied, the overall estimate was comparable to those from other studies. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the estimated β was highly sensitive to the bird-level latent period, emphasizing the need for its precise estimation. In all, for fatal poultry diseases, the back-calculation approach provides a computationally efficient means to obtain reasonable transmission parameter estimates from mortality data.

Meteorological factors affecting the risk of transmission of HPAI in Miyazaki, Japan

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks engender a severe economic impact on the poultry industry and public health. Migratory waterfowl are considered the natural hosts of HPAI virus, and HPAI...

Highly Pathogenic and Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 Subtype Viruses in Wild Birds in Ukraine.

There have been three waves of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks in commercial, backyard poultry, and wild birds in Ukraine. The first (2005-2006) and second (2008) waves were caused by H5N1 HPAI virus, with 45 outbreaks among commercial poultry (chickens) and backyard fowl (chickens, ducks, and geese) in four regions of Ukraine (AR Crimea, Kherson, Odesa, and Sumy Oblast). H5N1 HPAI viruses were isolated from dead wild birds: cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo) and great crested grebes (Podiceps cristatus) in 2006 and 2008. The third HPAI wave consisted of nine outbreaks of H5N8 HPAI in wild and domestic birds, beginning in November 2016 in the central and south regions (Kherson, Odesa, Chernivtsi, Ternopil, and Mykolaiv Oblast). H5N8 HPAI virus was detected in dead mute swans (Cygnus olor), peacocks (Pavo cristatus) (in zoo), ruddy shelducks (Tadorna ferruginea), white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons), and from environmental samples in 2016 and 2017. Wide wild bird surveillance for avian influenza (AI) virus was conducted from 2006 to 2016 in Ukraine regions suspected of being intercontinental (north-south and east-west) flyways. A total of 21 511 samples were collected from 105 species of wild birds representing 27 families and 11 orders. Ninety-five avian influenza (AI) viruses were isolated (including one H5N2 LPAI virus in 2010) from wild birds with a total of 26 antigenic hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) combinations. Fifteen of 16 known avian HA subtypes were isolated. Two H5N8 HPAI viruses (2016-2017) and two H5N2 LPAI viruses (2016) were isolated from wild birds and environmental samples (fresh bird feces) during surveillance before the outbreak in poultry in 2016-2017. The Ukrainian H5N1, H5N8 HPAI, and H5N2 LPAI viruses belong to different H5 phylogenetic groups. Our results demonstrate the great diversity of AI viruses in wild birds in Ukraine, as well as the importance of this region for studying the ecology of avian influenza.

Avian influenza overview August - November 2018.

Between 16 August and 15 November 2018, 14 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments in Bulgaria and seven HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks, one in captive birds in Germany and six in wild birds in Denmark and the Netherlands were reported in the European Union (EU). No human infection due to HPAI A(H5N8) and A(H5N6) viruses have been reported in Europe so far. Seroconversion of people exposed during outbreaks in Russia has been reported in one study. Although the risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low, appropriate personal protection measures of people exposed will reduce any potential risk. Genetic clustering of the viruses isolated from poultry in Bulgaria suggests three separate introductions in 2016 and a continuing circulation and transmission of these viruses within domestic ducks. Recent data from Bulgaria provides further indication that the sensitivity of passive surveillance of HPAI A(H5N8) in domestic ducks may be significantly compromised. Increased vigilance is needed especially during the periods of cold spells in winter when aggregations of wild birds and their movements towards areas with more favourable weather conditions may be encouraged. Two HPAI outbreaks in poultry were reported during this period from western Russia. Low numbers of HPAI outbreaks were observed in Africa and Asia, no HPAI cases were detected in wild birds in the time period relevant for this report. Although a few HPAI outbreaks were reported in Africa and Asia during the reporting period, the probability of HPAI virus introductions from non‐EU countries via wild birds particularly via the north‐eastern route from Russia is increasing, as the fall migration of wild birds from breeding and moulting sites to the wintering sites continues. Furthermore, the lower temperatures and ultraviolet radiation in winter can facilitate the environmental survival of any potential AI viruses introduced to Europe.

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N6) in Domestic Cats, South Korea.

In December 2016, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infection with systemic pathologic lesions was found in cats in South Korea. Genetic analyses indicated that the feline isolates were similar to HPAI H5N6 viruses isolated in chicken farms nearby. This finding highlights the need for monitoring of domestic mammals during HPAI outbreaks.

Spatial transmission of H5N2 highly pathogenic avian influenza between Minnesota poultry premises during the 2015 outbreak

The spatial spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 during the 2015 outbreak in the U.S. state of Minnesota was analyzed through the estimation of a spatial transmission kernel, which quantifies the infection hazard an infectious premises poses to an uninfected premises some given distance away. Parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood method for the entire outbreak as well as for two phases defined by the daily number of newly detected HPAI-positive premises. The results indicate both a strong dependence of the likelihood of transmission on distance and a significant distance-independent component of outbreak spread for the overall outbreak. The results further suggest that HPAI spread differed during the later phase of the outbreak. The estimated spatial transmission kernel was used to compare the Minnesota outbreak with previous HPAI outbreaks in the Netherlands and Italy to contextualize the Minnesota transmission kernel results and make additional inferences about HPAI transmission during the Minnesota outbreak. Lastly, the spatial transmission kernel was used to identify high risk areas for HPAI spread in Minnesota. Risk maps were also used to evaluate the potential impact of an early marketing strategy implemented by poultry producers in a county in Minnesota during the outbreak, with results providing evidence that the strategy was successful in reducing the potential for HPAI spread.

Avian influenza overview May - August 2018.

Between 16 May and 15 August 2018, three highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A(H5N8) outbreaks in poultry establishments and three HPAI A(H5N6) outbreaks in wild birds were reported in Europe. Three low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) outbreaks were reported in three Member States. Few HPAI and LPAI bird cases have been detected in this period of the year, in accordance with the seasonal expected pattern of LPAI and HPAI. There is no evidence to date that HPAI A(H5N8) and A(H5N6) viruses circulating in Europe have caused any human infections. The risk of zoonotic transmission to the general public in Europe is considered to be very low. Several HPAI outbreaks in poultry were reported during this period from Russia. The presence of the A(H5N2) and A(H5N8) viruses in parts of Russia connected with fall migration routes of wild birds is of concern for possible introduction and spread with wild birds migrating to the EU. Although few AI outbreaks were observed in Africa, Asia and the Middle East during the reporting period, the probability of AI virus introductions from non‐EU countries via wild birds particularly via the north‐eastern route from Russia is increasing, as the fall migration of wild birds will start in the coming weeks. Further, the lower temperatures in autumn and winter may facilitate the environmental survival of avian influenza viruses potentially introduced to Europe.

Global dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in poultry between 2005 and 2016-Focus on distance and rate of spread

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is of major importance for human and animal health because of high morbidity and mortality in poultry and the potential for transmission of this zoonotic pathogen to humans. Knowledge of HPAI epidemiology in avian populations and practical information on the temporal and spatial spread of the disease after introduction into a country is important in order to enhance the capacity of predicting and managing epidemics to minimize the negative impacts on human and animal health. Using data reported to the World Organisation for Animal Health between 2005 and 2017 by 199 countries for 14,129 outbreaks in poultry, we used a spatial and time-series analysis to determine that: (a) During the last 12years, there were two major global peaks in the number of countries affected by HPAI with 23% and 26% of countries affected in 2006 and 2016. (b) Based on the seasonality analysis, spread is the lowest in September, begins to rise in October, and peaks in February. (c) The median distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was 111km, while the median apparent rate of spread of outbreaks was 1.9km/day. (d) In 39% of HPAI events, the disease did not spread beyond the index outbreak and the median maximum spread from the index outbreak per event was 45km. (e) The distance HPAI outbreaks spread from the index outbreak was significantly negatively correlated with the number of outbreaks during the same time period, indicating that the spread of HPAI was lower during global panzootics than during periods of low transmission. These findings are of major importance for veterinary services to design and implement surveillance measures for improving preparedness to minimize the impacts of this disease.

Establishing Monitored Premises Status for Continuity of Business Permits During an HPAI Outbreak.

Recent experiences with avian influenza outbreaks in poultry in the United States have tested biosecurity protocols and outbreak management strategies. During an outbreak, regulatory officials managing the emergency response need to make timely decisions in order to achieve disease control and eradication goals while simultaneously decreasing the unintended consequences of the response. To move susceptible animals or animal products out of a disease Control Area via a secure food supply continuity of business (COB) permit without the risk of expanding a disease outbreak, premises must be designated as Monitored Premises (MP) by regulatory officials. The experience of and lessons learned from the 2014 to 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreak have resulted in defined criteria necessary to establish MP status during an HPAI outbreak and highlighted the need for a clear method to determine that those criteria have been met. Establishing MP status is different from an epidemiologic investigation, though they both require analyses of how avian influenza virus may enter poultry premises and can take significant staff time. MP status of premises seeking to move animals or animal products must be continuously re-evaluated as Infected Premises status, and resulting epidemiologic contacts, can rapidly change during an outbreak. We present here a questionnaire to establish MP status, designed to be initially completed by industry representatives in an attempt to streamline processes and conserve resources. During an outbreak, the MP status questionnaire is an essential risk-based management tool used to establish premises status, as part of operationalizing permitted movement to support COB.

Spatial clustering of pathology submissions during the initial introduction and spread of avian influenza H5N1 in poultry in Nigeria in 2006-2007.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 spread throughout Nigeria between 2006 and 2007. Bird samples collected across the country were submitted through the free-of-charge (FOC) program to the National Veterinary Research Institute, Vom (NVRI-Vom) laboratory. The present article describes the spatial distributions and evaluated clustering of the FOC submissions from poultry farms at the global, local, and focal levels between 2006 and 2007 epidemic in Nigeria. Spatial statistics evaluating clustering of the FOC submissions were implemented using the Moran's I test, the purely spatial cluster analysis with the SaTScan Poisson model, and the Bithell's linear score test. A significant global clustering of the FOC submissions was observed. Significant local clusters of submissions were observed in the North-East, North-Central, and South-West zones. There was significant decline in FOC submissions with increasing distance from NVRI-Vom. These results indicated that the geographic area of influence of the FOC submission program in Nigeria was limited to regions closer to the diagnostic laboratory. This work provides a detailed insight into the surveillance activities during the HPAI outbreaks in Nigeria, and should assist policy-makers and field veterinarians to improve the effectiveness of national eradication plans in the face of any outbreak of animal diseases.

Modelling low pathogenic avian influenza introduction into the commercial poultry industry

Outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in commercial poultry flocks are rare but highly disruptive to the industry. There is evidence that low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) can transfer from wild birds to domestic flocks, where it may mutate to HPAI, and the industry is concerned that an increasing demand for free-range produce may affect the risk of LPAI and HPAI outbreaks. In this paper we focus on LPAI introduction and establishment, and formulate a branching process model to compare risk between sectors and their contribution to overall industry-level risk. Our aim is to determine how heterogeneity in avian influenza viruses and the distinct population structures of each sector – caged, barn and free-range, meat and layer – interact with a continuous risk of virus introduction to affect outbreak probabilities. We show that free-range access is the most influential driver of LPAI outbreaks, with production cycle length having relatively little effect. We demonstrate that variation in virus transmission rates is particularly important when modelling avian influenza introduction to domestic poultry. Virus-free status is of interest for biosecurity and we distinguish how it differs from the usual probability of extinction, and discuss how production cycle length affects this difference. We also use the nonlinear relationship between shed size and risk to identify conditions for which shed size is most influential.

Matched case-control study of the influence of inland waters surrounding poultry farms on avian influenza outbreaks in Japan

To successfully control highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), understanding the risk factors related to the incursion of the virus into poultry farms is essential. In this study, we focused on the presence of inland waters surrounding poultry farms as a potential risk factor of incursion of the virus. To evaluate the influence of inland waters surrounding poultry farms on HPAI outbreaks in Japan, a simple matched case-control study was conducted. The results of the conditional regression analyses indicated that the number of farms with neighbouring inland waters was significantly high among the affected farms during the 2016–2017 outbreak period. These results provide good grounds for strengthening biosecurity management at farms located near inland waters.

Identification of high risk areas for avian influenza outbreaks in California using disease distribution models.

The coexistence of different types of poultry operations such as free range and backyard flocks, large commercial indoor farms and live bird markets, as well as the presence of many areas where wild and domestic birds co-exist, make California susceptible to avian influenza outbreaks. The 2014–2015 highly pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) outbreaks affecting California and other states in the United States have underscored the need for solutions to protect the US poultry industry against this devastating disease. We applied disease distribution models to predict where Avian influenza is likely to occur and the risk for HPAI outbreaks is highest. We used observations on the presence of Low Pathogenic Avian influenza virus (LPAI) in waterfowl or water samples at 355 locations throughout the state and environmental variables relevant to the disease epidemiology. We used two algorithms, Random Forest and MaxEnt, and two data-sets Presence-Background and Presence-Absence data. The models performed well (AUCc > 0.7 for testing data), particularly those using Presence-Background data (AUCc > 0.85). Spatial predictions were similar between algorithms, but there were large differences between the predictions with Presence-Absence and Presence-Background data. Overall, predictors that contributed most to the models included land cover, distance to coast, and broiler farm density. Models successfully identified several counties as high-to-intermediate risk out of the 8 counties with observed outbreaks during the 2014–2015 HPAI epizootics. This study provides further insights into the spatial epidemiology of AI in California, and the high spatial resolution maps may be useful to guide risk-based surveillance and outreach efforts.

Development of mathematical model on regionalization using records of livestock related vehicles for control strategy of highly pathogenic avian influenza

In this paper, a mathematical model of regionalization based on graph theory to investigate the patterns induced by movements of livestock vehicles in cities under outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is proposed. We then compare the results of simulation from the regionalization model to actual HPAI outbreaks in 2016/2017 to evaluate the validity of the model. Specifically, we (1) configured a complex network structure with analytic tools and properties in graph theory to abstract the paths among farms and livestock facilities; (2) employed statistical methods to estimate the possibility of propagation between two clusters; (3) applied the developed method to an actual HPAI outbreak in Korea in 2016 and conducted a simulation to determine if the proposed modeling for regionalization is an effective prediction measure. The clustered regions proposed by the simulation correctly reflected the regional clustering of actual cases, while simultaneously contain the cities exposed to potential damage when separated. Based on these findings, we conclude that our proposed regionalization model is suitable for making policy judgments to establish a preemptive biosecurity system.

Temporal and spatial characteristics of highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in China during 2004 to 2015

Identifying the temporal and spatial characteristics of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks is very important for developing effective and appropriate countermeasures against HPAI and promoting sustainable development in the poultry industry. This study aimed to analyze four aspects of the temporal and spatial characteristics of HPAI outbreaks in China, including the frequency of HPAI outbreaks, numbers of dead animals (died or culled), types of HPAI viruses, and species of infected animals. Temporal characteristics showed that the frequency of HPAI outbreaks decreased and then increased, with some years deviating from the main trend in 2004 to 2010 and 2011 to 2015, while the largest number of dead animals due to HPAI outbreaks was in 2005. During 2004 to 2015, HPAI H5N1 was the major type of HPAI virus, and chickens had the greatest risk of being infected with HPAI, followed by ducks and geese. The HPAI outbreaks had obvious seasonal effects clustered in January to February, June, and November. Spatial characteristics revealed that outbreaks were more frequent in Xinjiang, Hubei, and Guangdong but caused a larger number of dead animals in Liaoning and Shanxi. HPAI H5N1 appeared in 25 provinces, while HPAI H5N2 was mainly localized in Hebei and Jiangsu, and HPAI H5N6 occurred in Heilongjiang, Jiangsu, Hunan, and Guangdong. HPAI viruses were most frequently detected in chickens and wild birds in northern China, while the majority of HPAI infections were identified in chickens, ducks, and geese in southern China. Regionally, HPAI outbreaks were most frequent in the western region but resulted in larger number of animals dying or being culled in the eastern region. These findings could provide a new understanding of the distributional characteristics of HPAI outbreaks and offer prospects for better prevention and control strategies.

Trade patterns facilitating highly pathogenic avian influenza virus dissemination in the free-grazing layer duck system in Vietnam.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses continue to threaten smallholder poultry producers in several South-east Asian countries, including Vietnam. In particular, the free-grazing duck system has been repeatedly highlighted as a major risk factor for HPAI outbreaks. Free-grazing ducks, which scavenge on rice paddies after the harvest, account for a large proportion of the duck population in Vietnam and the wider South-east Asian region. However, the structure and dynamics of the free-grazing duck production from farm to consumption has not been described for Vietnam. In this study, we used a value chain approach to provide a complete picture of the actors involved in the production and marketing of free-grazing duck eggs and spent layer ducks, as well as to investigate the governance structure of this food system. Group interviews and key informant interviews were conducted in two provinces located in the Mekong River Delta (MRD) and the Red River Delta (RRD). The results presented here highlight similarities and differences in farming and trade practices between the two provinces. The trade of spent layer ducks involved large volumes of live ducks being sent to China and Cambodia for consumption, generating a substantial risk of transboundary spread of pathogens, including HPAI viruses. We describe the major role of "duck yards", which act as hubs in the northbound trade of spent layer ducks. These yards should be considered as essential links in the value chain of spent layer ducks when considering HPAI surveillance and control. The veterinary authorities are only marginally involved in the value chain activities, and their influence could be strengthened by increasing surveillance activities for instance in duck yards. Last, we discuss the dynamics of the duck value chain and further implications for future HPAI management policies.

Are Poultry or Wild Birds the Main Reservoirs for Avian Influenza in Bangladesh?

Avian influenza viruses (AIV) are of great socioeconomic and health concern, notably in Southeast Asia where highly pathogenic strains, such as highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 and other H5 and H7 AIVs, continue to occur. Wild bird migrants are often implicated in the maintenance and spread of AIV. However, little systematic surveillance of wild birds has been conducted in Southeast Asia to evaluate whether the prevalence of AIV in wild birds is higher than in other parts of the world where HPAI outbreaks occur less frequently. Across Bangladesh, we randomly sampled a total of 3585 wild and domestic birds to assess the prevalence of AIV and antibodies against AIV and compared these with prevalence levels found in other endemic and non-endemic countries. Our study showed that both resident and migratory wild birds in Bangladesh do not have a particularly elevated AIV prevalence and AIV sero-prevalence compared to wild birds from regions in the world where H5N1 is not endemic and fewer AIV outbreaks in poultry occur. Like elsewhere, notably wild birds of the orders Anseriformes were identified as the main wild bird reservoir, although we found exceptionally high sero-prevalence in one representative of the order Passeriformes, the house crow (Corvus splendens), importantly living on offal from live bird markets. This finding, together with high sero- and viral prevalence levels of AIV in domestic birds, suggests that wild birds are not at the base of the perpetuation of AIV problems in the local poultry sector, but may easily become victim to AIV spill back from poultry into some species of wild birds, potentially assisting in further spread of the virus.