Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Infection Research Articles

A case study of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 at Bird Island, South Georgia: the first documented outbreak in the subantarctic region

ABSTRACT Capsule HPAI H5N1 was documented for the first time in the subantarctic region on Bird Island, South Georgia, resulting in the mortality of Brown Skuas Stercorarius antarcticus, Gentoo Penguins Pygoscelis papua, Snowy Albatrosses Diomedea exulans, and Antarctic Fur Seals Arctocephalus gazella. Aims The spread of the HPAI H5N1 subtype has had dramatic impacts on numerous populations of wild birds and mammals. We describe a case study that can inform the management of HPAI for conservation practitioners and researchers globally. Methods We documented the detection, monitoring, and impact of the first known outbreak of H5N1 HPAI in the subantarctic region, at Bird Island in South Georgia (−54.3582, −36.5112) during 2023–2024. Deaths from HPAI were first suspected in September 2023 and later confirmed by genetic analysis. Results In total, 77 Brown Skuas, 38 Gentoo penguins, and 58 Snowy Albatrosses were suspected to have died from HPAI infection, and HPAI was confirmed in 5 dead Antarctic Fur Seals. Total mortality was unknown for all species, as other individuals will have been scavenged before discovery, or died at sea. Conclusion This case study provides lessons for the management, risk, safety considerations, and ethical decisions regarding animal welfare that may help guide research and management responses to HPAI outbreaks elsewhere, particularly in remote areas or in species of conservation concern.

Current status and future challenges of avian influenza – a literature review

An infectious agent affecting both domestic and wild birds may cause avian influenza. All of them can be transmitted by coming into contact with tainted food, drink, or bird emissions, particularly feces. Numerous clades of H5N1 infections have been circulating since 2003, including one introduced to the United States in 2014 by wild birds, which persisted until 2016. There were 2,240 wild birds found in 45 states and 519 counties in the United States alone by September 14, 2022. According to the World Organization for Animal Health (WOAH), the predominant Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) A (H5) virus subtype causing poultry outbreaks worldwide from late 2021 to early 2022 is A (H5N1). Most notifications from wild birds across multiple countries and regions suggest that the virus may have been introduced and spread via uncontrolled bird migration. The primary instance of a goose/Guangdong/1/96-lineage H5 HPAI infection inside the Americas since June 2015 was checked by the later disclosure of an H5N1 HPAI outbreak in Newfoundland, Canada. The avian flu Type A viruses, or bird flu viruses, rarely cause human infection; some bird flu viruses have done so in the past. The HPAI (H5) virus has been persistent in wild bird populations in Europe since the 2020-21 epidemic wave, according to the paper titled “Avian Influenza Overview: March-June 2022.” Even regions like Antarctica had avian influenza cases in 2023-24. Prevention and control can be done by monitoring and reporting outbreaks, preventing avian influenza at its source in animals, banning chicken farms, controlling methodologies, remuneration for ranchers, and vaccination.

Survey of exposure to stranded dolphins in Japan to investigate an outbreak of suspected infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza (H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4(b) in humans

BackgroundA highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) A (H5N1) virus has been detected in domestic and wild animals worldwide. The incidence of HPAI infections in sea mammals has been increasing, as is the number of stranded marine mammals linked to H5N1 viral clade 2.3.4.4(b). In this study, we investigated a stranding event involving dolphins and human–dolphin contact, and investigated the potential risk of animal-to-human H5N1 transmission with a survey of exposure on the Tsurigasaki coast, Japan. MethodsWe performed a non-random, convenient-sample-based, survey on Tsurigasaki beach where around 30 melon-headed whales were stranded on April 3, 2023. Face-to-face (n = 25) and telephone (n = 1) interviews among surfers took place on April 7 and 8. A nasal swab for quick antigen testing was taken from those who wished to be tested (n = 13), to detect infections with influenza A virus. ResultsAlthough there was no confirmatory diagnosis of H5N1 in either humans or dolphins (while n = 3 dolphins were autopsied), we found that a large number of surfers had touched the dolphins with their bare hands while attempting to rescue them, and that some surfers were directly exposed to dolphin blood and body fluids in the ocean. ConclusionsThe adequate communication of risk is required to minimize the threat of viral transmission at this particular human–animal interface. Administrative and legal responses to cross-species transmission, including guidelines via one health frameworks, a rapid evaluation process of ethical approval, and the systematic involvement of experts in infectious disease, must be urgently formulated.

Ecological drivers for poultry farms predisposed to highly pathogenic avian influenza virus infection during the initial phase of the six outbreaks between 2010-2021: a nationwide study in South Korea.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has caused substantial economic losses worldwide. An understanding of the environmental drivers that contribute to spillover transmission from wild birds to poultry farms is important for predicting areas at risk of introduction and developing risk-based surveillance strategies. We conducted an epidemiological study using data from six HPAI outbreak events in South Korea. An aggregate-level study design was implemented using third-level administrative units in South Korea. Only regions with high natural reservoir suitability were included. The incidence of HPAI at chicken and duck farms during the initial phase (30 and 45 days after the first case) of each outbreak event was used as the outcome variable, assuming that cross-species transmission from wild birds was the dominant exposure leading to infection. Candidate environmental drivers were meteorological factors, including temperature, precipitation, humidity, and altitude, as well as the proportion of protected area, farm density, deforestation level, and predator species richness. Logistic regression models were implemented; conditional autoregression models were used in cases of spatial autocorrelation of residuals. Lower temperature, higher farm density, and lower predator species richness were significantly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection on chicken farms. Lower temperature, higher proportion of protected area, and lower predator species richness were significantly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection on duck farms. The predicted dominant transmission routes on chicken and duck farms were horizontal and spillover, respectively. These results reveal a potential protective effect of predator species richness against HPAI outbreaks. Further studies are required to confirm a causal relationship.

Investigation of risk factors for the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus onto table egg farms in the United States, 2022: A case-control study. Proceeding of The First International Avian Influenza Summit, University of Arkansas- October 16-17, 2023”

Introduction: The 2022–2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in the United States (U.S.) is the most geographically extensive and costly animal health event in U.S. history. In 2022 alone, over 57 million commercial and backyard poultry in 47 U.S. states were affected. Over 75% of the affected poultry were part of the commercial table egg production sector. Methods: We conducted a case-control study to identify potential risk factors for the introduction of the HPAI virus onto commercial table egg operations. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to compare farm characteristics, management, and biosecurity factors on case and control farms. Results: Factors associated with increased risk of infection included being in an existing control zone, sightings of wild waterfowl, mowing or bush hogging vegetation less than 4 times a month, having an off-site method of daily mortality disposal (off-site composting or burial, rendering, or landfill), and wild bird access to feed/feed ingredients at least some of the time. Protective factors included a high level of vehicle washing for trucks and trailers entering the farm (a composite variable that included having a permanent wash station), having designated personnel assigned to specific barns, having a farm entrance gate, and requiring a change of clothing for workers entering poultry barns. Discussion: Study results improve our understanding of risk factors for HPAI infection and control measures for preventing HPAI on commercial U.S. table egg farms.

Investigation of risk factors for the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infection among commercial turkey operations in the United States, 2022: A case-control study. Proceeding of The First International Avian Influenza Summit, University of Arkansas- October 16-17, 2023”

The 2022–2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in the United States (U.S.) is the largest and most costly animal health event in U.S. history. Approximately 70% of commercial farms affected during this outbreak have been turkey farms. We conducted a case-control study to identify potential risk factors for the introduction of the HPAI virus into commercial meat turkey operations. Data were collected from 66 case farms and 59 control farms in 12 states. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to compare management and biosecurity factors on case and control farms. Factors associated with increased risk of infection included being in an existing control zone, having both brooders and growers, having toms, seeing wild waterfowl or shorebirds in the closest field, and using rendering for dead bird disposal. Protective factors included having a restroom facility, including portable, available to crews that visit the farm and workers having access and using a shower at least some of the time when entering a specified barn. The study results provide a better understanding of risk factors for HPAI infection and can be used to inform prevention and control measures for HPAI on U.S. turkey farms.

Investigation of risk factors for introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infection among commercial turkey operations in the United States, 2022: a case-control study.

The 2022-2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in the United States (U.S.) is the largest and most costly animal health event in U.S. history. Approximately 70% of commercial farms affected during this outbreak have been turkey farms. We conducted a case-control study to identify potential risk factors for introduction of HPAI virus onto commercial meat turkey operations. Data were collected from 66 case farms and 59 control farms in 12 states. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to compare management and biosecurity factors on case and control farms. Factors associated with increased risk of infection included being in an existing control zone, having both brooders and growers, having toms, seeing wild waterfowl or shorebirds in the closest field, and using rendering for dead bird disposal. Protective factors included having a restroom facility, including portable, available to crews that visit the farm and workers having access and using a shower at least some of the time when entering a specified barn. Study results provide a better understanding of risk factors for HPAI infection and can be used to inform prevention and control measures for HPAI on U.S. turkey farms.

Investigation of risk factors for introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus onto table egg farms in the United States, 2022: a case-control study.

The 2022-2023 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 outbreak in the United States (U.S.) is the most geographically extensive and costly animal health event in U.S. history. In 2022 alone, over 57 million commercial and backyard poultry in 47 U.S. states were affected. Over 75% of affected poultry were part of the commercial table egg production sector. We conducted a case-control study to identify potential risk factors for introduction of HPAI virus onto commercial table egg operations. Univariate and multivariable analyses were conducted to compare farm characteristics, management, and biosecurity factors on case and control farms. Factors associated with increased risk of infection included being in an existing control zone, sightings of wild waterfowl, mowing or bush hogging vegetation less than 4 times a month, having an off-site method of daily mortality disposal (off-site composting or burial, rendering, or landfill), and wild bird access to feed/feed ingredients at least some of the time. Protective factors included a high level of vehicle washing for trucks and trailers entering the farm (a composite variable that included having a permanent wash station), having designated personnel assigned to specific barns, having a farm entrance gate, and requiring a change of clothing for workers entering poultry barns. Study results improve our understanding of risk factors for HPAI infection and control measures for preventing HPAI on commercial U.S. table egg farms.

Avian influenza (H5N1) virus, epidemiology and its effects on backyard poultry in Indonesia: a review.

Avian influenza (AI) is a zoonotic viral endemic disease that affects poultry, swine, and mammals, including humans. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is caused by influenza type A virus subtypes H5, and H7 which are naturally carried by a wild bird and often affect domestic poultry. Avian influenza (AI) is a major problem worldwide that causes significant economic losses in the poultry sector. Since 2003, the widespread H5N1 HPAI in poultry has led to high mortalities resulting in huge economic losses in the poultry sector in Indonesia. Domestic poultry is a key source of income that contributes to economic growth, both directly and indirectly, by reducing poverty among the people living in rural communities. Furthermore, in many developing countries, including Indonesia, rural people meet a portion of their food needs through backyard poultry. Nevertheless, this sector is strongly affected by biosecurity hazards, particularly in Indonesia by HPAI infections. Avian influenza (AI), subtype H5N1 has zoonotic significance, posing major risks to public health and poultry. Due to close interaction between wild migratory birds and ducks, the domestic poultry sector in Indonesia is directly affected by this virus. This virus continues to be ubiquitous in Indonesia as a result of the unpredictable mutations produced by antigenic drift and shift, which can persist from a few days to several years. In this review, the epidemiology and impact, of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype virus infection on backyard poultry in Indonesia were discussed.

Avian influenza (H5N1) virus, epidemiology and its effects on backyard poultry in Indonesia: a review.

Avian influenza (AI) is a zoonotic viral endemic disease that affects poultry, swine, and mammals, including humans. Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is caused by influenza type A virus subtypes H5, and H7 which are naturally carried by a wild bird and often affect domestic poultry. Avian influenza (AI) is a major problem worldwide that causes significant economic losses in the poultry sector. Since 2003, the widespread H5N1 HPAI in poultry has led to high mortalities resulting in huge economic losses in the poultry sector in Indonesia. Domestic poultry is a key source of income that contributes to economic growth, both directly and indirectly, by reducing poverty among the people living in rural communities. Furthermore, in many developing countries, including Indonesia, rural people meet a portion of their food needs through backyard poultry. Nevertheless, this sector is strongly affected by biosecurity hazards, particularly in Indonesia by HPAI infections. Avian influenza (AI), subtype H5N1 has zoonotic significance, posing major risks to public health and poultry. Due to close interaction between wild migratory birds and ducks, the domestic poultry sector in Indonesia is directly affected by this virus. This virus continues to be ubiquitous in Indonesia as a result of the unpredictable mutations produced by antigenic drift and shift, which can persist from a few days to several years. In this review, the epidemiology and impact, of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 subtype virus infection on backyard poultry in Indonesia were discussed.

Hierarchical Clustering on Principal Components Analysis to Detect Clusters of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N6 Epidemic across South Korean Poultry Farms

Several outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) in poultry have already been documented across the world, causing major economic losses. Research on diverse perspectives for future HPAI outbreaks’ prevention is desperately needed. It is critical to determine high-risk areas for HPAI outbreaks in order to develop high-level biosecurity in all such areas. The aim of this study is to identify high-risk areas as hotspots for high rates of birds’ infection and mortality and culling. We used “hierarchical clustering on principal components” (HCPC) to classify infected poultry farms in South Korea based on the point prevalence rate, infections, and deaths in susceptible birds. The linear combination of the original predictors was determined using “principal component analysis (PCA)”. Based on PCA, we applied the hierarchical clustering algorithm, which divided the data into four clusters based on the dissimilarity matrix. These four groups of poultry farms were identified on the basis of five variables. According to the findings based on the HCPC method, poultry farms in “cluster 4” had significantly higher average bird infections with high mortality when compared to other clusters. Similarly, the poultry farms in “cluster 2” had robust average bird culling in place to limit bird infectivity and mortality due to a high number of susceptible birds. The poultry farms belonging to “cluster 3” had a significantly higher average point prevalence rate of HPAI H5N6 cases than the rest of the clusters. Based on this study, it is recommended that poultry farms with a high number of infections and mortality in susceptible birds should implement proper biosecurity management to control HPAI infections while avoiding the culling of a large number of birds.

Interpolation of Point Prevalence Rate of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 Second Phase Epidemic in South Korea.

Humans and animals are both susceptible to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. In the future, HPAI has the potential to be a source of zoonoses and pandemic disease drivers. It is necessary to identify areas of high risk that are more vulnerable to HPAI infections. In this study, we applied unbiased predictions based on known information to find points of localities with a high probability of point prevalence rate. To carry out such predictions, we utilized the inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging method, with the help of the R statistical computing program. The provinces of Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheongbuk-do and Ulsan have high anticipated risk. This research might aid in the management of avian influenza threats associated with various potential risks.

Spatial Variation in Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N6 Viral Infections in South Korea: Poultry Population-Based Case–Control Study

Given the substantial economic damage caused by the continual circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2003, identifying high-risk locations associated with HPAI infections is essential. In this study, using affected and unaffected poultry farms’ locations during an HPAI H5N6 epidemic in South Korea, we identified places where clusters of HPAI cases were found. Hotspots were defined as regions having clusters of HPAI cases. With the help of the statistical computer program R, a kernel density estimate and a spatial scan statistic were employed for this purpose. A kernel density estimate and detection of significant clusters through a spatial scan statistic both showed that districts in the Chungcheongbuk-do, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeollanam-do provinces are more vulnerable to HPAI outbreaks. Prior to the migration season, high-risk districts should implement particular biosecurity measures. High biosecurity measures, as well as improving the cleanliness of the poultry environment, would undoubtedly aid in the prevention of HPAIV transmission to poultry farms in these high-risk regions of South Korea.

Machine learning-driven dynamic risk prediction for highly pathogenic avian influenza at poultry farms in Republic of Korea: Daily risk estimation for individual premises.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a fatal zoonotic disease that damages the poultry industry and endangers human lives via exposure to the pathogen. A risk assessment model that precisely predicts high-risk groups and occurrence of HPAI infection is essential for effective biosecurity measures that minimize the socio-economic losses of massive outbreaks. However, the conventional risk prediction approaches have difficulty incorporating the broad range of factors associated with HPAI infections at poultry holdings. Therefore, it is difficult to accommodate the complexity of the dynamic transmission mechanisms and generate risk estimation on a real-time basis. We proposed a continuous risk prediction framework for HPAI occurrences that used machine learning algorithms (MLAs). This integrated environmental, on-farm biosecurity, meteorological, vehicle movement tracking, and HPAI wild bird surveillance data to improve accuracy and timeliness. This framework consisted of (i) the generation of 1788 predictors from six types of data and reconstructed them with an outcome variable into a data mart based on a temporal assumption (i.e. infected period and day-ahead forecasting); (ii) training of the predictors with the temporally rearranged outcome variable that corresponded to HPAI H5N6 infected state at each individual farm on daily basis during the 2016-2017 HPAI epidemic using three different MLAs [Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and eXtreme Gradient Boosting]; (iii) predicting the daily risk of HPAI infection during the 2017-2018 HPAI epidemic using the pre-trained MLA models for each farm across the country. The models predicted the high risk to 8-10 out of 19 infected premises during the infected period in advance. The GBM MLAs outperformed the 7-day forecasting of HPAI prediction at individual poultry holdings, with an area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic of 0.88. Therefore, this approach enhances the flexibility and timing of interventions against HPAI outbreaks at poultry farms.

Preventive effect of on-farm biosecurity practices against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 infection on commercial layer farms in the Republic of Korea during the 2016-17 epidemic: A case-control study

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) H5N6 has destructive consequences on the global poultry production system. Recently, a growing number of layer farms have been heavily damaged from the HPAIv epidemic due to the increased virulence of the virus and the intensification of the production system. Therefore, stakeholders should implement effective preventive practices at the farm level that are aligned with contingency measures at the national level to minimize poultry losses. However, numerous biosecurity protocols for layer farm workers to follow have been developed, impeding efficient prevention and control. Furthermore, the effectiveness of biosecurity practices varies with the geographical condition and inter-farm contact structures. Hence, the objective of our study was to examine the preventive effect of five biosecurity actions commonly practiced at layer farms in the Republic of Korea against HPAIv H5N6: (i) fence installation around a farm, ii) rodent control inside a farm; iii) disinfection booth for visitors for disinfection protocols, iv) an anterior room in the sheds before entering the bird area and v) boots changes when moving between sheds in the same farm. We conducted a case-control study on 114 layer case farms and 129 layer control farms during the 2016-17 HPAI epidemic. The odds ratios for five on-farm biosecurity practices implemented in those study groups were estimated as a preventive effect on the HPAI infection with covariates, including seven geographical conditions and three network metrics using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression and geographical location weighted logistic regression. The results showed that the use of a disinfection booth for personnel reduced the odds of HPAIv H5N6 infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.002, 95 % credible interval [CrI] = 0.00007 - 0.025) with relatively small spatial variation (minimum AOR – maximum AOR: 0.084−0.263). Changing boots between sheds on the same farm reduced the odds of HPAIv H5N6 infection (AOR = 0.160, 95 % CrI = 0.024−0.852) with relatively wide spatial variation (minimum AOR – maximum AOR = 0.270−0.688). Therefore, enhanced personnel biosecurity protocols at the farm of entry for layer farms is recommended to effectively prevent and respond to HPAIv H5N6 infection under different local condition. Our study provides an important message for layer farmers to effectively implement on-farm biosecurity actions against HPAIv H5N6 infection at their farms by setting priorities based on their spatial condition and network position.

Mortality Levels and Production Indicators for Suspicion of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Commercially Farmed Ducks.

(1) Background: Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is a viral infection characterized by inducing severe disease and high levels of mortality in gallinaceous poultry. Increased mortality, drop in egg production or decreased feed or water intake are used as indicators for notification of suspicions of HPAI outbreaks. However, infections in commercial duck flocks may result in mild disease with low mortality levels, thereby compromising notifications. (2) Methods: Data on daily mortality, egg production, feed intake and water intake from broiler and breeder duck flocks not infected (n = 56 and n = 11, respectively) and infected with HPAIV (n = 13, n = 4) were used for analyses. Data from negative flocks were used to assess the baseline (daily) levels of mortality and production parameters and to identify potential threshold values for triggering suspicions of HPAI infections and assess the specificity (Sp) of these thresholds. Data from infected flocks were used to assess the effect of infection on daily mortality and production and to evaluate the sensitivity (Se) of the thresholds for early detection of outbreaks. (3) Results: For broiler flocks, daily mortality > 0.3% (after the first week of production) or using a regression model for aberration detection would indicate infection with Se and Sp higher than 80%. Drops in mean daily feed or water intake larger than 7 g or 14 mL (after the first week of production), respectively, are sensitive indicators of infection but have poor Sp. For breeders, mortality thresholds are poor indicators of infection (low Se and Sp). However, a consecutive drop in egg production larger than 9% is an effective indicator of a HPAI outbreak. For both broiler and breeder duck flocks, cumulative average methods were also assessed, which had high Se but generated many false alarms (poor Sp). (4) Conclusions: The identified reporting thresholds can be used to update legislation and provide guidelines to farmers and veterinarians to notify suspicions of HPAI outbreaks in commercial duck flocks.

Analyzing Spatial Dependency of the 2016-2017 Korean HPAI Outbreak to Determine the Effective Culling Radius.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks are a threat to human health and cause extremely large financial losses to the poultry industry due to containment measures. Determining the most effective control measures, especially the culling radius, to minimize economic impacts yet contain the spread of HPAI is of great importance. This study examines the factors influencing the probability of a farm being infected with HPAI during the 2016–2017 HPAI outbreak in Korea. Using a spatial random effects logistic model, only a few factors commonly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection were significant. Interestingly, most density-related factors, poultry and farm, were not significantly associated with a higher risk of HPAI infection. The effective culling radius was determined to be two ranges: 0.5–2.2 km and 2.7–3.0 km. This suggests that the spatial heterogeneity, due to local characteristics and/or the characteristics of the HPAI virus(es) involved, should be considered to determine the most effective culling radius in each region. These findings will help strengthen biosecurity control measures at the farm level and enable authorities to quickly respond to HPAI outbreaks with effective countermeasures to suppress the spread of HPAI.

A Retrospective Study of Early vs. Late Virus Detection and Depopulation on Egg Laying Chicken Farms Infected with Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus During the 2015 H5N2 Outbreak in the United States.

The 2015 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N2 outbreak affected more than 200 Midwestern U.S. poultry premises. Although each affected poultry operation incurred substantial losses, some operations of the same production type and of similar scale had differences between one another in their ability to recognize evidence of the disease before formal diagnoses and in their ability to make proactive, farm-level disease containment decisions. In this case comparison study, we examine the effect of HPAI infection on two large egg production facilities and the epidemiologic and financial implications resulting from differences in detection and decision-making processes. Each egg laying facility had more than 1 million caged birds distributed among 18 barns on one premises (Farm A) and 17 barns on the other premises (Farm B). We examine how farm workers' awareness of disease signs, as well as how management's immediate or delayed decisions to engage in depopulation procedures, affected flock mortality, levels of environmental contamination, time intervals for re population, and farm profits on each farm. By predictive mathematical modeling, we estimated the time of virus introduction to examine how quickly infection was identified on the farms and then estimated associated contact rates within barns. We found that the farm that implemented depopulation immediately after detection of abnormal mortality (Farm A) was able to begin repopulation of barns 37 days sooner than the farm that began depopulation well after the detection of abnormally elevated mortality (Farm B). From average industry economic data, we determined that the loss associated with delayed detection using lost profit per day in relation to down time was an additional $3.3 million for Farm B when compared with Farm A.

Thermal Image Scanning for the Early Detection of Fever Induced by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Chickens and Ducks and Its Application in Farms.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) is considered as one of the most devastating poultry diseases. It is imperative to immediately report any known outbreaks to the World Organization for Animal Health. Early detection of infected birds is of paramount importance to control virus spread, thus minimizing the associated economic loss. In this study, thermal imaging camera devices were used to detect change in the maximum surface temperature (MST) of chickens (n = 5) and ducks (n = 2) as an early indicator of experimental HPAI infection. The MST of both chickens and ducks increased at least 24 h before the manifestation of clinical signs of HPAI infection, depending on the severity of the infection. The basal MST was recorded for broiler chickens housed under small pen and normal farm conditions without intentional infection. A threshold cutoff of MST was established based on the circadian rhythm of normal MST. This study suggests that thermal imaging of chickens and ducks is a promising tool to screen any potential HPAI-infected flock in order to expedite HPAI diagnosis.

Surveillance and Sequestration Strategies to Reduce the Likelihood of Transporting Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Contaminated Layer Manure.

Movement and land application of manure is a known risk factor for secondary spread of avian influenza viruses. During an outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), movement of untreated (i.e., fresh) manure from premises known to be infected is prohibited. However, moving manure from apparently healthy (i.e., clinically normal) flocks may be critical, because some egg-layer facilities have limited on-site storage capacity. The objective of this analysis was to evaluate targeted dead-bird active surveillance real-time reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR) testing protocols that could be used for the managed movement of manure from apparently healthy egg-layer flocks located in an HPAI control area. We also evaluated sequestration, which is the removal of manure from any contact with chickens, or with manure from other flocks, for a period of time, while the flock of origin is actively monitored for the presence of HPAI virus. We used stochastic simulation models to predict the chances of moving a load of contaminated manure, and the quantity of HPAI virus in an 8 metric ton (8000 kg) load of manure moved, before HPAI infection could be detected in the flock. We show that the likelihood of moving contaminated manure decreases as the length of the sequestration period increases from 3 to 10 days (e.g., for a typical contact rate, with a sample pool size of 11 swabs, the likelihood decreased from 48% to <1%). The total quantity of feces from HPAI-infectious birds in a manure load moved also decreases. Results also indicate that active surveillance protocols using 11 swabs per pool result in a lower likelihood of moving contaminated manure relative to protocols using five swabs per pool. Simulation model results from this study are useful to inform further risk evaluation of HPAI spread through pathways associated with manure movement and further evaluation of biosecurity measures intended to reduce those risks.