Higher Risk Of Type 2 Diabetes Research Articles

Association of time spent in outdoor light and genetic susceptibility with the risk of type 2 diabetes

To explore the joint association of time spent in outdoor light and genetic susceptibility with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). A total of 395,809 individuals of European ancestry with diabetes-free at baseline in the UK Biobank were included. Time spent in outdoor light on a typical day in summer or winter was obtained from the questionnaire. T2D genetic risk was quantified via the polygenic risk score (PRS) and divided into three levels based on tertiles (lower, intermediate, and higher). T2D cases were ascertained according to the hospital records of diagnoses. After the median follow-up of 12.55 years, the association of outdoor light time and T2D risk demonstrated a nonlinear (J–shaped) trend. Compared to individuals with an average of 1.5–2.5 h/day of outdoor light, individuals who spent <1.5 h/day or >2.5 h/day in outdoor light both had an elevated risk of T2D, and the risk of T2D related to <1.5 h/day outdoor light time was much higher (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.10, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.06 to 1.15). After combining with PRS, in comparison with the lower PRS – average 1.5–2.5 h/day outdoor light group (reference), the higher PRS – <1.5 h/day outdoor light group had the highest T2D risk (HR = 2.74, 95 % CI: 2.55 to 2.94), the higher PRS – >2.5 h/day outdoor light group also had a higher risk of T2D (HR = 2.58, 95 % CI: 2.43 to 2.74). The interaction between average outdoor light time and genetic susceptibility for T2D was statistically significant (Paverage for interaction <0.001). We found that optimal outdoor light time may modify the genetic risk for T2D. This suggests the T2D risk related to genetic factors could be prevented by spending optimal outdoor light time.

Abstract 105: Lipid Regulation of Senescent Effector CD8 T Cells in Type 2 Diabetes

Introduction: Atherosclerotic plaques from patients with Type 2 Diabetes (T2D) present a more severe pathology than non-T2D (ND) plaques and response to cholesterol-lowering is compromised. An increased level of circulating senescent CD8 T cells in T2D patients is associated with increased risk for myocardial infarction. However, whether senescent T cells infiltrate human atherosclerotic plaques and how they are regulated by lipid lowering is unknown. Hypothesis: Senescent CD8+ T cells are increased in atherosclerotic plaques and circulation of T2D, and are normalized by aggressive lipid lowering in T2D. Methods: We performed unbiased scRNA-seq analysis (75,049 total cells) of immune cells in plaques from T2D (n=12) and ND patients (n=10) to identify senescent T cells in human atherosclerotic plaques. Using CyTOF we tested the effect of aggressive lipid lowering on circulating CD8 T cells in T2D (n=16) and ND (n=6) patients. Results: We identified senescent T cells within atherosclerotic plaques and found that senescent CD8 T cells largely accumulate in plaques from T2D patients (p&lt;0.001). Plaque CD8 T cells showed a terminally differentiated effector memory phenotype with high expression of CX3CR1 and low expression of SELL and CCR7 genes. CD8 T cell clusters express senescence markers ( B3GAT1,KLRG1,KLRD1,KLRF1 ) and presented senescence associated secretory phenotype with high expression of cytotoxic ( GZMB,PRF1,GNLY ) and proatherogenic ( IFNG,TNFA,CCL5 ) genes. CyTOF analysis showed higher levels of circulating senescent CD57+CD28-CD8 T cells in patients with T2D vs ND controls (p&lt;0.001). Potent lipid lowering with PCSK9 inhibitor + statin/ezetimibe, which reduced LDL-C levels by &gt;70% in all patients at 4 weeks, normalized the frequency of circulating senescent CD8 T cells (p&lt;0.001) in T2D patients to the levels found in ND. Conclusion: Our results show that senescent CD8 T cells accumulated in blood and plaques of T2D patients and that potent lipid lowering diminished circulating aged CD8 T cells, suggesting that CD8 T cell senescence can be improved by aggressive lipid control in high-risk T2D subjects. Further analyses are needed to understand the role of lipid metabolism in the T cell senescence and the impact on atherosclerosis progression.

Longitudinal Associations of Dietary Sugars and Glycaemic Index with Indices of Glucose Metabolism and Body Fatness during 3-Year Weight Loss Maintenance: A PREVIEW Sub-Study

Background: Dietary sugars are often linked to the development of overweight and type 2 diabetes (T2D) but inconsistencies remain. Objective: We investigated associations of added, free, and total sugars, and glycaemic index (GI) with indices of glucose metabolism (IGM) and indices of body fatness (IBF) during a 3-year weight loss maintenance intervention. Design: The PREVIEW (PREVention of diabetes through lifestyle Intervention and population studies in Europe and around the World) study was a randomised controlled trial designed to test the effects of four diet and physical activity interventions, after an 8-week weight-loss period, on the incidence of T2D. This secondary observational analysis included pooled data assessed at baseline (8), 26, 52, 104 and 156 weeks from 514 participants with overweight/obesity (age 25–70 year; BMI ≥ 25 kg⋅m−2) and with/without prediabetes in centres that provided data on added sugars (Sydney and Helsinki) or free sugars (Nottingham). Linear mixed models with repeated measures were applied for IBF (total body fat, BMI, waist circumference) and for IGM (fasting insulin, HbA1c, fasting glucose, C-peptide). Model A was adjusted for age and intervention centre and Model B additionally adjusted for energy, protein, fibre, and saturated fat. Results: Total sugars were inversely associated with fasting insulin and C-peptide in all centres, and free sugars were inversely associated with fasting glucose and HbA1c (Model B: all p &lt; 0.05). Positive associations were observed between GI and IGM (Model B: fasting insulin, HbA1c, and C-peptide: (all p &lt; 0.01), but not for added sugars. Added sugar was positively associated with body fat percentage and BMI, and GI was associated with waist circumference (Model B: all p &lt; 0.01), while free sugars showed no associations (Model B: p &gt; 0.05). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that added sugars and GI were independently associated with 3-y weight regain, but only GI was associated with 3-y changes in glucose metabolism in individuals at high risk of T2D.

Leveraging IgG N-glycosylation to infer the causality between T2D and hypertension

BackgroundObservational studies demonstrated a bidirectional association between type 2 diabetes (T2D) and hypertension, whereas Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses supported the causality from T2D to hypertension but not causal from hypertension to T2D. We previously found that IgG N-glycosylation is associated with both T2D and hypertension, and thus IgG N-glycosylation might link the causality between them.MethodsWe carried out a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to identify IgG N-glycosylation-quantitative-trait loci (QTLs) integrating GWAS for T2D and hypertension and then performed bidirectional univariable and multivariable MR analyses to infer the causal association among them. The inverse-variance-weighted (IVW) analysis was performed as the primary analysis, followed by some sensitivity analyses to explore the stability of the results.ResultsSix putatively causal IgG N-glycans for T2D and four for hypertension were identified in the IVW method. Genetically predicted T2D increased the risk of hypertension (odds ratio [OR] = 1.177, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) = 1.037–1.338, P = 0.012) and vice versa (OR = 1.391, 95% CI = 1.081–1.790, P = 0.010). Multivariable MR showed that T2D remained at risk effect with hypertension ([OR] = 1.229, 95% CI = 1.140–1.325, P = 7.817 × 10–8) after conditioning on T2D-related IgG-glycans. Conversely, hypertension was associated with higher T2D risk (OR = 1.287, 95% CI = 1.107–1.497, P = 0.001) after adjusting for related IgG-glycans. No evidence of horizontal pleiotropy was observed, as MR‒Egger regression provided P values for intercept > 0.05.ConclusionOur study validated the mutual causality between T2D and hypertension from the perspective of IgG N-glycosylation, further validating the “common soil” hypothesis underlying the pathogenesis of T2D and hypertension.

Dietary patterns associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes in women with and without a history of gestational diabetes mellitus: A pilot study

Introduction: There is limited evidence on dietary patterns and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in women with a history of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) compared to their non-GDM counterparts, especially in the Asian population. The pilot study investigated dietary patterns in women with a history of GDM (HGDM) and without a history of GDM (non-HGDM), and the association with T2D risk. Methods: This comparative cross-sectional study involved 64 women (32 HGDM, 32 non-HGDM). Food intake was assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire. Principal component analysis derived the dietary patterns. T2D risk score was determined using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score tool. Results: HGDM group had significantly higher proportion of first-degree family history of diabetes; higher risk of T2D and better diabetes knowledge; lower gestational weight gain and postpartum weight retention; and consumed more fast food than nonHGDM. ‘Rice-noodle-pasta-meat’ dietary pattern was significantly associated with increased T2D risk after adjusting for age (β=0.272, p=0.032). ‘Bread-cereals-fast food-meat’ dietary pattern was positively and significantly associated with T2D risk after adjusting for confounders, including age, education level, family history of diabetes, diabetes knowledge score, gestational weight gain, and postpartum weight retention (β=0.251, p=0.012). Conclusion: Dietary patterns high in bread, cereals and cereal products, fast food and meat, as well as rice, noodle, pasta and meat were associated with an elevated T2D risk. A more extensive study is warranted to establish the association between dietary patterns and risk of T2D, focusing on women with a history of GDM.

Abstract 1920: Association of type 2 diabetes with overall and site-specific cancer among predominantly low-income Black and White Americans

Abstract Background: Black individuals have the highest cancer incidence rate in the United States compared to White and other populations. Additionally, they are also twice as likely to develop type 2 diabetes (T2D) during their lifetime. Specifically considering the association between diabetes and cancer incidence, both diseases share common modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors such as, aging, obesity, lack of physical activity, unhealthy diet, excessive alcohol consumption, and smoking. This association could vary between cancer types and race is also a factor which could disproportionately affect this relationship. However, studies on these associations are limited and the impact in terms of risk between the Black and White Americans remains unclear. Objective: We evaluated the association of T2D with risk of total and 26 site-specific cancers in a large cohort study conducted among predominantly low-income Black and White Americans who have a higher risk of T2D than other populations. Given the previous literature on T2D, cancer, and race, we hypothesized that T2D might be associated with varying risk for cancer. Methods: For this analysis, we used data from the Southern Community Cohort Study, an on-going prospective cohort study. Enrollment began in 2002 and concluded in 2009, with active follow-up until 2020. Study participants were asked whether they were diagnosed with T2D by physicians at the follow-up interviews and T2D was assessed as a time-varying covariate. Ascertainment of incident cancer was carried out via linkage to state cancer registries. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) after adjusting for confounders. Results: This study included 81,525 participants (30.2 % (N=24,581) White; 65.9% (N=53,711) Black) of whom 36.2% (N=29,487) were diagnosed with diabetes. Among those with diabetes, 10.3% (N=3,024) were diagnosed with cancer. Individuals with T2D had an elevated risk of several cancers, including pancreatic cancer (HR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.18-1.96); but a reduced risk of esophageal cancer (HR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.34-0.89). Some racial differences were found regarding the association of T2D with cancer risk. Conclusion: We found varying risks between T2D and risk of cancer between White and Black individuals. This highlights the importance of T2D prevention practices to help mitigate the risk of cancer and that further research is necessary to understand this association in minority individuals. Citation Format: Pranoti Pradhan, Wanqing Wen, Wei Zheng. Association of type 2 diabetes with overall and site-specific cancer among predominantly low-income Black and White Americans [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2023; Part 1 (Regular and Invited Abstracts); 2023 Apr 14-19; Orlando, FL. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(7_Suppl):Abstract nr 1920.

Unravelling the potential of social prescribing in individual-level type 2 diabetes prevention: a mixed-methods realist evaluation

BackgroundSocial prescribing (SP) usually involves linking patients in primary care with services provided by the voluntary and community sector. Preliminary evidence suggests that SP may offer a means of connecting patients with community-based health promotion activities, potentially contributing to the prevention of long-term conditions, such as type 2 diabetes (T2D).MethodsUsing mixed-methods realist evaluation, we explored the possible contribution of SP to individual-level prevention of T2D in a multi-ethnic, socio-economically deprived population in London, UK. We made comparisons with an existing prevention programme (NHS Diabetes Prevention Programme (NDPP)) where relevant and possible. Anonymised primary care electronic health record data of 447,360 people 18+ with an active GP registration between December 2016 and February 2022 were analysed using quantitative methods. Qualitative data (interviews with 11 primary care clinicians, 11 social prescribers, 13 community organisations and 8 SP users at high risk of T2D; 36 hours of ethnographic observations of SP and NDPP sessions; and relevant documents) were analysed thematically. Data were integrated using visual means and realist methods.ResultsPeople at high risk of T2D were four times more likely to be referred into SP than the eligible general population (RR 4.31 (95% CI 4.17–4.46)), with adjustment for socio-demographic variables resulting in attenuation (RR 1.33 (95% CI 1.27–1.39)). More people at risk of T2D were referred to SP than to NDPP, which could be explained by the broad referral criteria for SP and highly supportive (proactive, welcoming) environments. Holistic and sustained SP allowed acknowledgement of patients’ wider socio-economic constraints and provision of long-term personalised care. The fact that SP was embedded within the local community and primary care infrastructure facilitated the timely exchange of information and cross-referrals across providers, resulting in enhanced service responsiveness.ConclusionsOur study suggests that SP may offer an opportunity for individual-level T2D prevention to shift away from standardised, targeted and short-term strategies to approaches that are increasingly personalised, inclusive and long-term. Primary care-based SP seems most ideally placed to deliver such approaches where practitioners, providers and commissioners work collectively to achieve holistic, accessible, sustained and integrated services.

J-shape relationship between normal fasting plasma glucose and risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population: results from two cohort studies

BackgroundPrevious studies have reported that high fasting plasma glucose (FPG), even that within the normal range, is associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Nevertheless, these findings are limited to specific populations. Thus, studies in the general population are imperative.MethodsThis study included two cohorts comprising 204 640 individuals who underwent physical examinations at the Rich Healthcare Group present at 32 locations in 11 cities of China from 2010 to 2016 and 15 464 individuals who underwent physical tests at the Murakami Memorial Hospital in Japan. Cox regression, restricted cubic spline (RCS), Kaplan–Meier (KM) curves, and subgroup analysis were used to determine the relationship between FPG and T2D. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to evaluate the predictive power of FPG for T2D.ResultsThe mean age of the 220 104 participants (204 640 Chinese and 15 464 Japanese participants) was 41.8 years (41.7 years for the Chinese and 43.7 years for the Japanese participants). During follow-up, 2611 individuals developed T2D (2238 Chinese and 373 Japanese participants). The RCS demonstrated a J-shaped relationship between FPG and T2D risk, with inflexion points of 4.5 and 5.2 for the Chinese and Japanese populations, respectively. Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 7.75 for FPG and T2D risk after the inflexion point (7.3 for Chinese and 21.13 for Japanese participants).ConclusionsIn general Chinese and Japanese populations, the normal baseline FPG range showed a J-shaped relationship with the risk of T2D. Baseline FPG levels help identify individuals at high risk of T2D and may enable early primary prevention to improve their outcomes.

Abstract P6-11-07: Role of insulin resistance in HR+ mammary carcinogenesis

Abstract Hormone receptor (HR+) breast cancer (BC) is responsible for more than 80% BC cases and more than 60% BC-related deaths in the US. The incidence and severity of BC are influenced by a variety of modifiable risk factors, including (but not limited to) nutritional behaviors and obesity. Specifically, women with a body mass index (BMI) &amp;gt; 25 Kg/m2 exhibit an approx. 1.4-fold increase in the risk of developing postmenopausal HR+ BC as compared to women with BMI &amp;lt; 25 Kg/m2. Along similar lines, women with type 2 diabetes (T2D) – one of many consequences of obesity – are at 1.23-fold increased risk to develop postmenopausal HR+ BC as compared to women without T2D. Moreover, a BMI &amp;gt;30 Kg/m2 has been associated with decreased progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) in women with HR+ BC. Thus, a high number of postmenopausal HR+ BC cases and BC-related deaths could be effectively avoided by modifying dietary habits, both in prophylactic and therapeutic settings. Mechanistically, obesity provokes numerous alterations that have been linked to accrued postmenopausal HR+ carcinogenesis, encompassing (1) increased circulating levels of glucose and insulin – reflecting insulin resistance (IR) coupled to T2D, (2) increased levels of estrogen, produced locally and systematically by adipocytes, and (3) chronic inflammation of the breast adipose tissue (AT). However, the relative contribution of IR vs. other obesity-associated alterations to BC development and sensitivity to treatment has not been elucidated. At least in part, this reflects the two most common approaches employed to cause obesity in preclinical studies: the use of high-fat diets (HFDs) and/or mice genetically predisposed to develop obesity (e.g., ob/ob mice), neither of which is suitable to uncouple IR from all other metabolic, hormonal, and inflammatory effects of obesity. Here, we combined a unique model of HR+HER2- carcinogenesis that recapitulates key immunobiological features of human HR+ BC (notably, a cold tumor microenvironment coupled to a scarce sensitivity to immunotherapy, and exquisite sensitivity to CDK4/6 inhibitors), as established in mice by medroxyprogesterone acetate (M) pellets combined with 7,12-dimethylbenz[a]anthracene (D) oral administration, with a novel model of pure IR originating from the AT-specific deletion of RAB10, member RAS oncogene family (Rab10), a transducer of insulin signaling in adipocytes. Importantly, these mice are neither hyperphagic nor overweight, have normal glucose level at baseline and do not exhibit inflammatory alterations in the AT, but nonetheless display IR. While a HFD shortens tumor-free survival (TFS) in immunocompetent mice subjected to M/D-driven oncogenesis, it does not alter the growth of detectable M/D-driven tumors. Conversely, IR as imposed by the loss of Rab10 in the AT failed to alter TFS but accelerated the growth of tumors, resulting in shortened OS. Moreover, the deletion of Rab10 from the mouse AT enabled the development of tumors displaying features of increased aggressiveness, including systematic loss of progesterone receptor (PR) expression. Finally, the growth of tumors emerging in in the context of a Rab10/- AT could be efficiently controlled by the systemic administration of metformin. In line with this notion, orthotopically injected mouse triple negative BC AT-3 cells grew faster in mice bearing an AT-specific deletion of Rab10 as compared to their wild-type littermates. In conclusion, IR as imposed by the loss of Rab10 in the mouse AT converts HR+ mammary carcinomas as driven by M/D into HR- lesions with increased aggressiveness. These findings have major implications for ethnic groups that are at high risk for T2D at BMIs that are considered normal for Caucasians, such as women of African American and Asian descent, especially in view of the fact that women from these ethnic groups are known to be at increased risk for aggressive triple-negative BC as compared to their Caucasian counterparts. Citation Format: Aitziber Buque, Maria Belen Picatoste, Norma Bloy, Lucie Yammine, Rosemary Leahey, Ai Sato, Emma Johnson, Timothy E. McGraw, Lorenzo Galluzzi. Role of insulin resistance in HR+ mammary carcinogenesis [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2022 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2022 Dec 6-10; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2023;83(5 Suppl):Abstract nr P6-11-07.

Abstract MP56: Intake of Ultra-Processed Foods is Associated With an Increase in Risk for Type Two Diabetes: Results From Three U.S. Cohort Studies and a Meta-Analysis

Introduction: There is limited evidence on the association between long-term consumption of ultra-processed foods (UPF) and the risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), among the U.S population. The overall strength of this association has also not been established. Hypothesis: Higher intake of UPF is associated with a higher risk of T2D in U.S. adults. The pooled risk estimates from published literature reinforce the positive relationship between the UPF intakes and T2D. Methods: We first assessed this relationship among 71,871 women from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1984-2016), 87,918 women from NHSII (1991-2017), and 38,847 men from the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986-2016) who were all free of T2D at baseline. Diet was assessed using food frequency questionnaires, every 2-4 years. UPF were categorized according to the Nova classification. Information on incident cases of T2D was obtained through follow-up questionnaires every 2 years. The association between UPF intake and incident T2D was examined using Cox proportional hazards models. Second, after conducting a systematic review of prospective cohort studies, risk estimates from all included cohorts were pooled in a random-effects, dose-response, meta-analysis to assess nonlinearity of the association between total UPF intake and T2D risk. Finally, the strength of the meta-evidence was assessed using NutriGrade. Results: During 5,187,678 person-years of follow-up across the three cohorts, 19,503 T2D cases were documented. The pooled multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for T2D between the extreme quintiles of total UPF intake (% of grams/day), was 1.36 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.29, 1.44; P trend &lt;0.0001). This relationship was driven by intakes of ultra-processed animal-based products, ready-to-eat mixed dishes and artificially- and sugar-sweetened beverages. Ultra-processed cereals and ultra-processed dark breads and whole-grain breads were inversely associated with T2D risk. In the meta-analysis (7 risk estimates, 415,554 participants and 21,932 T2D cases), a significant positive dose-response association between total UPF intake and T2D was observed (P=0.90 for non-linearity): a 10% increase in total UPF intake (% grams from UPF/day) was associated with a 10% higher risk of T2D (95%CI: 8%, 12%; I 2 =23.1%; P heterogeneity =0.25). Per NutriGrade, the evidence supporting the positive relationship between total UPF intake and T2D was of high quality. Conclusions: High quality evidence shows that total UPF consumption is associated with higher risk of T2D, although not all individual foods classified as ultra-processed were associated with a higher risk in these U.S. cohorts.

Ultra-Processed Food Consumption and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Three Large Prospective U.S. Cohort Studies.

We examined the relationship between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk among 3 large U.S. cohorts, conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies, and assessed meta-evidence quality. We included 71,871 women from the Nurses' Health Study, 87,918 women from the Nurses' Health Study II, and 38,847 men from the Health Professional Follow-Up Study. Diet was assessed using food frequency questionnaires and UPF was categorized per the NOVA classification. Associations of total and subgroups of UPF with T2D were assessed using Cox proportional hazards models. We subsequently conducted a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies on total UPF and T2D risk, and assessed meta-evidence quality using the NutriGrade scoring system. Among the U.S. cohorts (5,187,678 person-years; n = 19,503 T2D cases), the hazard ratio for T2D comparing extreme quintiles of total UPF intake (percentage of grams per day) was 1.46 (95% CI 1.39-1.54). Among subgroups, refined breads; sauces, spreads, and condiments; artificially and sugar-sweetened beverages; animal-based products; and ready-to-eat mixed dishes were associated with higher T2D risk. Cereals; dark and whole-grain breads; packaged sweet and savory snacks; fruit-based products; and yogurt and dairy-based desserts were associated with lower T2D risk. In the meta-analysis (n = 415,554 participants; n = 21,932 T2D cases), each 10% increment in total UPF was associated with a 12% (95% CI 10%-13%) higher risk. Per NutriGrade, high-quality evidence supports this relationship. High-quality meta-evidence shows that total UPF consumption is associated with higher T2D risk. However, some UPF subgroups were associated with lower risk in the U.S. cohorts.

Abstract P152: Joint Association of Sugar- and Artificially-Sweetened Beverage Consumption and Physical Activity and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in US Adults

Background: Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) or artificially sweetened beverages (ASBs) and physical activity are independently associated with type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk; however, it is unknown whether there is an interaction of SSB/ASB intake and physical activity on risk of T2D. Methods: We examined the independent and joint associations between habitual SSB/ASB intake and physical activity with incident T2D risk among 196,101 women and men from the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS, 1980-2016), NHSII (1991-2017), and Health Professional’s Follow-up Study (HPFS, 1986-2016), who were free from chronic diseases at baseline. Cox proportional hazards regressions were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR; CI), adjusting for demographic and lifestyle T2D risk factors. Results: There were 20,430 incident T2D cases over follow-up of 36, 26, and 30 years in NHS, NHSII, and HPFS, respectively. In multivariable-adjusted models, we confirmed that participants with higher SSBs, ASBs and lower physical activity were independently at higher T2D risk, compared to lower intakes and higher activity levels. In joint analyses for these exposures, participants who did not meet physical activity guidelines and consumed gt 2 servings/day of SSBs had a significantly higher risk of T2D than those who met physical activity guidelines and never/rarely consumed SSBs (1.51; 1.43, 1.60); we observed similar findings for ASBs: 1.29; 1.23, 1.36). Among participants who met physical activity guidelines, those who consumed gt 2 servings/day of SSBs had a HR of 1.23 (1.16, 1.30); the HR for ASBs was 1.07 (1.02, 1.13). Consistent results were observed for women and men. Conclusions: Long-term habitual intake of SSBs or ASBs combined with lower physical activity was associated with higher risk of T2D in three large prospective cohort studies. These findings suggest that even when individuals are physically active, higher consumption of SSBs is associated with a higher risk of T2D. Our results support recommendations and policies to limit the intake of SSB and increase physical activity levels.

Abstract P216: Carbohydrate Quantity and Quality, and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes: Results From Three Large Prospective US Cohorts

Background: High-quality carbohydrate sources, such as whole grains, have been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), whereas low-quality carbohydrate sources, such as refined grains and added sugar, have been associated with a higher T2D risk. However, few studies have considered how replacing dietary carbohydrate with other macronutrients may influence T2D risk. Objective: We examined whether isocaloric substitution of high- or low-quality carbohydrate for fat, protein, and their subtypes is associated with T2D risk. Methods: We included 75,430 women from the Nurses' Health Study (1984-2016), 85,630 women from the Nurses' Health Study II (1991-2017), and 40,261 men from the Health Professionals Follow-Up Study (1986-2016) who were free of T2D, CVD, and cancer at baseline. Dietary data were collected every 2-4 years using a validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. High-quality carbohydrate was defined as carbohydrate from whole grains, fruits, vegetables, and legumes. Low-quality carbohydrate was defined as carbohydrate from refined grains, added sugars, and potatoes. We used Cox proportional hazards regression with time-varying covariates to model the substitution of 5% of energy intake from high- and low-quality carbohydrate for isocaloric amounts of fat, protein, and their subtypes [polyunsaturated fat (PUFA), animal and plant monounsaturated fat (MUFA), saturated fat, trans fat, and animal and plant protein]. Cohort-specific estimates were combined using inverse variance-weighted fixed effects meta-analyses. Results: During 4,859,845 years of follow-up, we documented 20,141 incident T2D cases. In multivariable-adjusted meta-analyses, isocaloric substitution of high-quality carbohydrate for total fat [HR (95% CI) 0.94 (0.93, 0.96)], total MUFA [0.95 (0.91, 0.98)], MUFA from animal sources [0.92 (0.88, 0.95)], total protein [0.91 (0.89, 0.94)], or animal protein [0.94 (0.91, 0.97] was associated with a lower T2D risk. On the other hand, the substitution of low-quality carbohydrate for plant MUFA [1.06 (1.02-1.10)] or plant protein [1.06 (1.02-1.11)] was associated with a higher risk of T2D. When we restricted high-quality carbohydrate sources to whole grains, the results were similar or stronger. Additionally, substitution of whole grain carbohydrate for saturated fat [0.87 (0.84, 0.91)], trans fat [0.87 (0.83, 0.92)], PUFA [0.88 (0.84, 0.92)], plant MUFA [0.92 (0.87, 0.96)], or plant protein [0.91 (0.86, 0.97)] was associated with lower T2D risk. Conclusions: The effect of carbohydrate substitution on T2D risk depends not only on the nutrient being substituted but also on the quality of the carbohydrate. Substitution of high-quality carbohydrate, especially carbohydrate from whole grains (i.e. whole wheat bread, oatmeal), for fat or protein, especially animal sources (i.e. beef, poultry), may lower T2D risk.

Abstract 66: Clonal Hematopoiesis of Indeterminate Potential and Incident Type 2 Diabetes Risk

Introduction: Clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP) is an aging-related accumulation of somatic mutations in hematopoietic stem cells, leading to clonal expansion. CHIP presence has been implicated in elevated risks for coronary heart disease (CHD) and death, but its association with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unknown. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that CHIP is associated with elevated risk of incident T2D. Methods: CHIP was derived from whole genome sequencing of blood DNA in NHLBI Trans-omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) cohorts. We analyzed 17,637 participants without prior T2D, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at blood draw, with prospective follow-up for incident T2D. We evaluated baseline prevalence of CHIP vs. no CHIP with incident T2D risk using Cox regression. We also investigated CHIP variants previously related to CHD: DNMT3A , TET2 , ASXL1 , JAK2 , and TP53 . We estimated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (HR [CI]) adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, smoking, alcohol, and education. We combined cohort estimates via fixed effects meta-analysis. Results: On average, participants were age 63.4 years (SD=11.5) and 76% female. Prevalence of CHIP was 6.0% (1,055) at baseline. There were 2,467 incident T2D cases over mean=9.8 years follow-up. Compared to those without a mutation, having CHIP was associated with a 23% higher T2D risk, both overall (combined HR=1.23; 95% CI=1.04, 1.45), and among those with CHD-related CHIP mutations (87% of total CHIP): HR=1.23 (1.03, 1.46). Although those with CHIP mutations of TET2 (HR=1.48; 1.05, 2.08) and ASXL1 (HR=1.76; 1.03, 2.99) had larger elevations in T2D risk, and DNMT3A was suggestive of increased T2D risk (HR=1.15; 0.93, 1.43), statistical power was limited for JAK2 and TP53 mutation analyses. Conclusions: CHIP was associated with higher incidence of T2D. CHIP mutations located on loci previously implicated in aging and CHD were also related to T2D, suggesting shared pathology of atherosclerosis and T2D.

Abstract P324: Female Reproductive Factors and Risk of Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease Among Women With a History of Gestational Diabetes

Introduction: The link between gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) and long-term risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established; however, risk factors underlying the progression of disease remain uncertain. Hypothesis: Female reproductive factors including ages at menarche, menopause, and first birth, number of live births, and surgically-induced menopause (uni- or bilateral oophorectomy or hysterectomy) are associated with higher risk of progression, while breastfeeding is associated with lower risk of progression from GDM to T2D/CVD. Methods: Participants in the Nurses’ Health Study II reported reproductive history at cohort baseline and over follow-up, including 5346 women with a history of GDM. Self-reported incident T2D or CVD (myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization or stroke) were confirmed via questionnaire or medical records. We estimated the hazard ratios (HR [95%]) across quintiles of each reproductive factor with incident T2D and CVD using Cox models adjusting for age, race/ethnicity, smoking, BMI at 18 years, physical activity, family history of T2D or CVD, alcohol intake, menopausal status, aspirin use, and Alternate Healthy Eating Index. Results: We documented 988 incident T2D and 149 CVD cases over 25 years of follow-up. In adjusted models, higher total lactation duration was associated with lower risk of T2D (5 categories: 0, 1-6, 7-12, 13-24, &gt;24 months, p for trend=0.01; highest vs. lowest category: HR 0.77 [95%CI: 0.60, 0.98]) and CVD (p for trend=0.03, HR 0.39 [95%CI: 0.19, 0.80]). Early age at menarche was linearly associated with higher risk of T2D (5 categories: ≤11, 12, 13, 14, &gt;14 y: p for trend &lt;0.0001), lowest (≤11 y) vs. reference (13 y) category: HR 1.28 [95%CI: 1.06, 1.53], while no trend could be observed for CVD outcomes (p for trend=0.48). Higher age at 1 st birth was associated with lower CVD risk (5 categories: &lt;23, 23-25 [reference], 26-29, 30-34, ≥35 y, p for trend=0.001; highest vs reference category: HR 0.17 [95%CI: 0.05, 0.57]), but not T2D). Compared with natural menopause, surgically induced menopause was associated with higher T2D risk: 1.32 (1.00, 1.73). Number of live births and age at menopause were not associated with T2D or CVD among women with GDM history. Conclusions: Breastfeeding was associated with lower T2D and CVD risks among women with GDM history, suggesting some shared risk factors or etiologies across reproductive lifespan and long-term cardiometabolic health. Ages at menarche and 1 st birth showed differential associations with T2D and CVD.

Effect of Dietary Phenolic Compounds on Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in the “Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra” (SUN) Cohort

The global incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) has been steadily increasing in recent decades. The Mediterranean dietary pattern has shown a preventive effect on the risk of T2D. Evaluating the association between bioactive compounds such as phenolic compounds (PC) in a Mediterranean cohort could help to better understand the mechanisms implicated in this protection. We evaluated the association between dietary intake of PC and the risk of T2D in a relatively young cohort of 17,821 Spanish participants initially free of T2D, through the University of Navarra Follow-up Project ("Seguimiento Universidad de Navarra" or SUN cohort) after 10 years of median follow-up using time-dependent Cox models. Intake of PC was estimated at baseline and repeatedly at 10-year follow-up using a 136-item validated food frequency and the Phenol-Explorer database. The incidence of T2D was identified by a biennial follow-up, and only medically confirmed cases were included. During 224,751 person-years of follow-up, 186 cases of T2D were confirmed. A suboptimal intake of stilbenes was independently associated with a higher risk of T2D in subjects over 50 years (HR: 1.75, 95% CI: 1.06-2.90, p value < 0.05) after adjusting for potential confounders. Our results suggest that a moderate-high intake of stilbenes can decrease the risk of developing T2D in subjects over 50 years in our cohort.

Temporal relationship between atherogenic dyslipidemia and inflammation and their joint cumulative effect on type 2 diabetes onset: a longitudinal cohort study

BackgroundConcurrent atherogenic dyslipidemia and elevated inflammation are commonly observed in overt hyperglycemia and have long been proposed to contribute to diabetogenesis. However, the temporal relationship between them and the effect of their cumulative co-exposure on future incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) remains unclear.MethodsLongitudinal analysis of data on 52,224 participants from a real-world, prospective cohort study (Kailuan Study) was performed to address the temporal relationship between high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and the atherogenic index of plasma (AIP, calculated as triglyceride/high-density lipoprotein) in an approximately 4-year exposure period (2006/2007 to 2010/2011). After excluding 8824 participants with known diabetes, 43,360 nondiabetic participants were included for further analysis of the T2D outcome. Cox regression models were used to examine the adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) upon the cumulative hsCRP (CumCRP) and AIP (CumAIP) in the exposure period.ResultsIn temporal analysis, the adjusted standardized correlation coefficient (β1) of hsCRP_2006/2007 and AIP_2010/2011 was 0.0740 (95% CI, 0.0659 to 0.0820; P < 0.001), whereas the standardized correlation coefficient (β2) of AIP_2006/2007 and hsCRP_2010/2011 was − 0.0293 (95% CI, − 0.0385 to − 0.0201; P < 0.001), which was significantly less than β1 (P < 0.001). During a median follow-up of 7.9 years, 5,118 T2D cases occurred. Isolated exposure to CumAIP or CumCRP was dose-dependently associated with T2D risks, independent of traditional risk factors. Significant interactions were observed between the median CumAIP (− 0.0701) and CumCRP thresholds (1, 3 mg/L) (P = 0.0308). Compared to CumAIP < − 0.0701 and CumCRP < 1 mg/L, those in the same CumAIP stratum but with increasing CumCRP levels had an approximately 1.5-fold higher T2D risk; those in higher CumAIP stratum had significantly higher aHRs (95% CIs): 1.64 (1.45–1.86), 1.87 (1.68–2.09), and 2.04 (1.81–2.30), respectively, in the CumCRP < 1, 1 ≤ CumCRP < 3, CumCRP ≥ 3 mg/L strata. Additionally, the T2D risks in the co-exposure were more prominent in nonhypertensive, nondyslipidemic, nonprediabetic, or female participants.ConclusionsThese findings suggest a stronger association between elevated hsCRP and future AIP changes than vice versa and highlight the urgent need for combined assessment and management of chronic inflammation and atherogenic dyslipidemia in primary prevention, particularly for those with subclinical risks of T2D.

Cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between family meals frequency and children's overweight/obesity in families at high risk of type 2 diabetes: The Feel4Diabetes-study.

The frequency of family meals has been suggested as a protective factor against obesity among children. This study aimed to investigate the cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between family meals frequency and children's overweight/obesity in families at high risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D) across six European countries. 989 parent-child dyads (52% girls and 72% mothers) were included. Participants completed validated measures to assess the frequency of family meals and anthropometrics. Multivariable regression models were applied to examine the longitudinal associations between family meals frequency and overweight/obesity in children. Logistic regression was performed to predict the odds of having overweight/obesity depending on changes in family meals frequency over a two-year follow-up period. Analyses were stratified for children's sex. High frequency of family breakfasts and/or dinners was inversely associated with children's BMI in boys and girls at T2. Results showed decreased odds of overweight/obesity at follow-up among both boys (OR=0.65; 95% CI 0.41, 0.96) and girls (OR=0.53; 95% CI 0.31, 0.87) who consumed minimum of three times family breakfasts and/or family dinners a week at baseline. An increase in family breakfasts and/or dinners frequency was associated with lower odds of overweight/obesity in both boys and girls at follow-up. A high frequency of family breakfasts and/or dinners but not lunch during childhood is associated with lower odds of overweight/obesity development in children from families at high risk of T2D. The promotion of family meals could help in preventing the development of overweight/obesity among children.

Update on the Role of Adequate Vitamin D Provision for Avoiding Insulin Resistance and its Sequelae [Type 2 Diabetes and Cardiovascular Disease

Type 2 diabetes prevalence is increasing, reaching ‘pandemic’ proportions globally, and associated with increasing obesity rates. Concomitantly, vitamin D deficiency persists world-wide and is worsened by obesity because it reduces hepatic 25-hydroxylation of vitamin D, which reduces circulating 25(OH)D availability to target tissues; these include islet beta cells, since vitamin D is essential for adequate insulin responses to hyperglycemia. Increased insulin resistance increases type-2 diabetes risks and precedes its development by decades, reflecting changes in hepatic and muscle function that are corrected experimentally by activated hormonal vitamin D [calcitriol]; similarly, abnormal insulin resistance can be corrected in humans by correcting vitamin D deficiency using oral supplementation. Since vitamin D deficiency and inadequacy persist world-wide despite various guidelines on vitamin D intake, the possibility that correcting deficiency would contribute to reducing T2DM risks through beneficial effects on pancreatic islet beta cells and on the metabolic disorders contributing to insulin resistance through vitamin D inadequacy warrants consideration. If this is the case, then ensuring vitamin D adequacy in populations at high risk of Type-2 diabetes would be a valuable adjunct to other measures being taken to reduce that risk such as increased exercise and weight reduction. It would also reduce cardiovascular disease risks, well known to increase with insulin resistance, with or without concomitant Type-2 diabetes. Cardiovascular disease risks themselves can be reduced by adequately correcting deficiency and are lower with higher lifetime circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D in deficient subjects from Mendelian randomization analysis. This report, therefore, reviews the evidence for increased insulin resistance as a risk factor for Type-2 diabetes, the beneficial effects of correcting vitamin deficiency on insulin resistance, Type-2 diabetes and cardiovascular risks, some basic mechanisms accounting for those benefits, the reasons for the persistence of vitamin D inadequacy globally and how best that problem could be corrected.

Vegetable, but Not Potato, Intake Is Associated With a Lower Risk of Type 2 Diabetes in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health Cohort.

To examine the relationship between intake of vegetables/potatoes and incident type 2 diabetes (T2D) and explore whether the relationship between vegetable intake and incident T2D is mediated by baseline BMI. Cross-sectional associations between exposure (baseline intake of total vegetables, vegetable subgroups, and potatoes) and baseline BMI were assessed by multivariable-adjusted linear regression models. Associations between exposure and incident T2D were examined by multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. Mediation by BMI was quantified through exploration of natural direct and indirect effects. Among 54,793 participants in the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort, 7,695 cases of T2D were recorded during a median follow-up of 16.3 years. Participants in the highest total vegetable intake quintile (median 319 g/day) had a 0.35 kg/m2 (95% CI -0.46, -0.24) lower BMI and a 21% (95% CI 16, 26%) lower risk of incident T2D after multivariable adjustment compared with those in the lowest quintile (median 67 g/day). Baseline BMI mediated ∼21% of the association between vegetable intake and incident T2D. Participants in the highest compared with the lowest (median 256 vs. 52 g/day) potato intake quintile had a 9% (95% CI 2, 16%) higher risk of T2D after multivariable adjustment, with no association found after accounting for underlying dietary pattern. Of the vegetable subclasses, higher intake of green leafy and cruciferous vegetables was associated with a statistically significantly lower risk of T2D. The findings provide evidence that a higher vegetable, but not potato, intake might help mitigate T2D risk, partly by reducing BMI.