Higher Risk Of 30-day Mortality Research Articles

Advanced Care Planning for Hospitalized Patients Following Clinician Notification of Patient Mortality by a Machine Learning Algorithm

Goal-concordant care is an ongoing challenge in hospital settings. Identification of high mortality risk within 30 days may call attention to the need to have serious illness conversations, including the documentation of patient goals of care. To examine goals of care discussions (GOCDs) in a community hospital setting with patients identified as having a high risk of mortality by a machine learning mortality prediction algorithm. This cohort study took place at community hospitals within 1 health care system. Participants included adult patients with a high risk of 30-day mortality who were admitted to 1 of 4 hospitals between January 2 and July 15, 2021. Patient encounters of inpatients in the intervention hospital where physicians were notified of the computed high risk mortality score were compared with patient encounters of inpatients in 3 community hospitals without the intervention (ie, matched control). Physicians of patients with a high risk of mortality within 30 days received notification and were encouraged to arrange for GOCDs. The primary outcome was the percentage change of documented GOCDs prior to discharge. Propensity-score matching was completed on a preintervention and postintervention period using age, sex, race, COVID-19 status, and machine learning-predicted mortality risk scores. A difference-in-difference analysis validated the results. Overall, 537 patients were included in this study with 201 in the preintervention period (94 in the intervention group; 104 in the control group) and 336 patients in the postintervention period. The intervention and control groups included 168 patients per group and were well-balanced in age (mean [SD], 79.3 [9.60] vs 79.6 [9.21] years; standardized mean difference [SMD], 0.03), sex (female, 85 [51%] vs 85 [51%]; SMD, 0), race (White patients, 145 [86%] vs 144 [86%]; SMD 0.006), and Charlson comorbidities (median [range], 8.00 [2.00-15.0] vs 9.00 [2.00 to 19.0]; SMD, 0.34). Patients in the intervention group from preintervention to postintervention period were associated with being 5 times more likely to have documented GOCDs (OR, 5.11 [95% CI, 1.93 to 13.42]; P = .001) by discharge compared with matched controls, and GOCD occurred significantly earlier in the hospitalization in the intervention patients as compared with matched controls (median, 4 [95% CI, 3 to 6] days vs 16 [95% CI, 15 to not applicable] days; P < .001). Similar findings were observed for Black patient and White patient subgroups. In this cohort study, patients whose physicians had knowledge of high-risk predictions from machine learning mortality algorithms were associated with being 5 times more likely to have documented GOCDs than matched controls. Additional external validation is needed to determine if similar interventions would be helpful at other institutions.

White Blood Cell Count Predicts Mortality in Patients with Spontaneous Intracerebral Hemorrhage.

The association between white blood cell (WBC) counts and mortality in patients with intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) has not been established. The aim of this study is to determine whether higher WBC is associated with mortality at 90days. A retrospective observational study was conducted at two medical hospitals in China. Baseline WBC count on admission served as the primary predictor variable. Longitudinal WBC counts within the first week after admission were collected to assess the effects of WBC trajectory and the median and maximum WBC counts on outcomes following ICH. Associations of WBC count with outcomes were evaluated in multivariable regression analyses. We identified 3613 patients with ICH who met the inclusion criteria. After adjusting primary confounding variables, patients with increased WBC count had a significantly higher risk of 90-day mortality (p < 0.001 for trend). In the receiver operating characteristic analyses, the capacity for all-cause mortality prediction by WBC count on admission (area under the ROC curve (AUC) = 0.65) was superior to other important inflammatory markers, includingneutrophil(AUC = 0.64) , lymphocyte(AUC = 0.57), albumin(AUC = 0.57), and platelet count(AUC = 0.53), p < 0.001for WBC vs.neutrophil, and the median WBC count (AUC = 0.66) within the first week after admission was a better marker than admission WBC count (p = 0.02). In patients with ICH, WBC count on admission was associated with all-cause mortality at 90days. Additionally, the median and maximum WBC counts within the first week after admission showed better predictive ability for the 90-day mortality compared with the WBC count on admission.

The serum anion gap is associated with the prognosis of coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG): analysis based on the MIMIC-IV database.

The serum anion gap (AG) has been reported to be an important prognostic indicator for patients in intensive care units. To explore the potential relationship between the serum AG and 30-day mortality in patients who underwent CABG. All data were collected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Ⅳ (MIMIC-Ⅳ) database. We divided patients into 3 groups according to AG tertiles. The primary outcome of our study was the 30-day mortality of patients who underwent CABG. The relationship between the serum AG and mortality in individuals who underwent CABG was estimated using Cox proportional hazard models. Subgroup analysis for effect modification was conducted with a likelihood ratio test. A total of 5,102 eligible subjects were included in our analysis. After adjusting for confounding factors, every unit increase in the AG was associated with a 22% higher odds of 30-day mortality in patients who underwent CABG [hazard ratio (HR), 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.22, 1.13-1.33] When the AG was converted into a categorical variable, the high AG group had a higher risk of 30-day mortality than the low AG group in the fully adjusted model (HR, 95% CI: 3.99, 1.35-11.76). Tests for trends were statistically significant (p-value < 0.05). Subgroup analysis demonstrated that higher mortality was related to the subgroups of people ≥ 70 years and females. The serum AG was an independent predictor of short-term prognosis in patients who underwent CABG. A high AG was associated with an increased risk of 30-day mortality after CABG.

Sex difference in early mortality after abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

ObjectiveAlthough female patients have a lower prevalence of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA), they seem to have a worse treatment outcome compared with male patients. Both maximum aneurysm diameter and aortic size index (ASI) are important indicators of the risk of AAA rupture, among which ASI has been shown capable of equalizing sex-related anatomical differences. Our study aimed to investigate whether sex is an independent risk factor for early postoperative mortality and how the diameter or ASI affects the association between sex and mortality. MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of patients who enrolled in the AAA registry of the German Society of Vascular Surgery from 2013 to 2019. The patients were treated by either open surgical repair (OSR) or endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). The association between sex and 30-day mortality was investigated using logistic regression analysis. The interaction and mediating effects of maximum aneurysm diameter and ASI were investigated to verify their roles in the effect of sex on mortality. The relationships between the diameter (or ASI) and the risk of 30-day mortality in different sexes were demonstrated by the restricted cubic spline. ResultsOverall, 23,275 cases were included in our analysis, with 20,130 male (86.5%) and 3139 female (13.5%) patients. Female patients had a smaller maximum aneurysm diameter (OSR, 55.23 ± 10.29 mm vs 58.05 ± 11.28 mm [P < .001]; EVAR, 54.06 ± 9.08 mm vs 56.11 ± 9.38 mm [P < .001]), but a higher ASI (OSR, 3.16 ± 0.71 vs 2.92 ± 0.69 [P < .001]; EVAR, 3.05 ± 0.66 vs 2.80 ± 0.59 [P < .001]) compared with male patients. The 30-day mortality rate was higher for female patients in both OSR (6.6% vs 4.2%; P = .002) and EVAR groups (1.8% vs 0.8%; P < .001). Logistic regression confirmed a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality for female patients compared with male patients (odds ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.21-1.99; P = .001). No interaction was found between sex and diameter or ASI, but there were mediating effects for diameter and ASI in the effect of sex on 30-day mortality. For female patients, the risk of 30-day mortality linearly increased with the increase of diameter (PNonlinear = .089) or ASI (PNonlinear = .888), whereas the risk for male patients was U-shaped (for diameter, PNonlinear < .001; for ASI, PNonlinear = .020). ConclusionsSex is an independent risk factor for 30-day mortality after AAA repair. Both diameter and ASI are mediating factors for the effect of sex on 30-day mortality. The relationship between diameter or ASI and the risk of 30-day mortality is different for male and female patients.

The Neutrophil Percentage-to-Albumin Ratio is Associated with All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation: A Retrospective Study.

The present study aimed to evaluate the relationship between all-cause mortality and the neutrophil percentage-to-albumin ratio (NPAR) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). We obtained clinical information from patients with AF from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV version 2.0 (MIMIC-IV) database and the Second Affiliated Hospital and Yuying Children's Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (WMU). The clinical endpoints were all-cause death measured at 30-day, 90-day, and one-year intervals. For endpoints associated with the NPAR, logistic regression models were used to calculate odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) were developed to compare the ability of different inflammatory biomarkers to predict 90-day mortality in patients with AF. Higher NPAR was associated with a higher risk of 30-day (OR 2.08, 95% CI 1.58-2.75), 90-day (OR 2.07, 95% CI 1.61-2.67), and one-year mortality (OR 1.60, 95% CI 1.26-2.04) in patients with AF in 2813 patients from MIMIC-IV. The predictive performance of NPAR (AUC = 0.609) for 90-day mortality was better than that of neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) (AUC = 0.565, P < 0.001), and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) (AUC = 0.528, P < 0.001). When NPAR and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) were combined, the AUC increased from 0.609 to 0.674 (P < 0.001). Higher NPAR was associated with a higher risk of 30-day mortality (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.02-6.30) and 90-day mortality (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.09-7.01) in 283 patients from WMU. An increased 30-day, 90-day, and one-year mortality risk among patients with AF were linked to a higher NPAR in MIMIC-IV. NPAR was thought to be a good predictor of 90-day all-cause mortality. Higher NPAR was associated with a higher risk of 30-day and 90-day mortality in WMU.

Comparative performance of distinct frailty measures among patients undergoing percutaneous left atrial appendage closure.

Frailty is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing left atrial appendage closure (LAAC). This study aimed to compare the performance of two claims-based frailty measures in predicting adverse outcomes following LAAC. We identified patients 66 years and older who underwent LAAC between October 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, in Medicare fee-for-service claims. Frailty was assessed using the previously validated Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and Kim Claims-based Frailty Index (CFI). Patients were identified as frail based on HFRS ≥5 and CFI ≥0.25. Of the 21,787 patients who underwent LAAC, frailty was identified in 45.6% by HFRS and 15.4% by CFI. There was modest agreement between the two frailty measures (kappa 0.25, Pearson's correlation 0.62). After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, frailty was associated with higher risk of 30-day mortality, 1-year mortality, 30-day readmission, long hospital stay, and reduced days at home (p<.01 for all) regardless of the frailty measure used. The addition of frailty to standard comorbidities significantly improved model performance to predict 1-year mortality, long hospital stay, and reduced days at home (Delong p-value<.001). Despite significant variation in frailty detection and modest agreement between the two frailty measures, frailty status remained highly predictive of mortality, readmissions, long hospital stay, and reduced days at home among patients undergoing LAAC. Measuring frailty in clinical practice, regardless of the method used, may provide prognostic information useful for patients being considered for LAAC, and may inform shared decision-making in this population.

Mean arterial pressure predicts 48 h clinical deterioration in intermediate-high risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

We assess the prognostic role of mean arterial pressure (MAP) for 48 h clinical deterioration in intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients after admission. A post hoc analysis of intermediate-high-risk PE and intermediate-low-risk PE patients enrolled in the Italian Pulmonary Embolism Registry (IPER) (Trial registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01604538) was performed. Clinical deterioration within 48 h was defined as patient worsening from a stable to an unstable haemodynamic condition, need of catecholamine infusion, endotracheal intubation, or cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Of 450 intermediate-high risk PE patients (mean age 71.4 ± 13.8 years, 298 males), 40 (8.8%) experienced clinical deterioration within 48 h from admission. Receiver operating characteristic analysis established the optimal cut-off value for MAP, as a predictor of 48 h clinical deterioration, ≤81.5 mmHg [area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 ± 0.3] with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 77.5, 95.0, 63.2, and 97.7%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors for 48 h clinical deterioration were age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19-1.28, P < 0.0001], history of heart failure (HR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.72-1.81, P < 0.0001), simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.49-1.58, P = 0.001), systemic thrombolysis (HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30-0.65, P < 0.0001), and a MAP of ≤81.5 mmHg at admission (HR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.89-5.21, P < 0.0001). The deteriorating group had a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality (HR: 2.61, 95% CI: 2.54-2.66, P < 0.0001) compared with the non-deteriorating group. The mean arterial pressure appears to be a useful, bedside, and non-invasive prognostic tool potentially capable of promptly identifying intermediate-high risk PE patients at higher risk of 48 h clinical deterioration.

Comparative Effectiveness and Safety of Seizure Prophylaxis Among Adults After Acute Ischemic Stroke.

Older adults occasionally receive seizure prophylaxis in an acute ischemic stroke (AIS) setting, despite safety concerns. There are no trial data available about the net impact of early seizure prophylaxis on post-AIS survival. Using a stroke registry (American Heart Association's Get With The Guidelines) individually linked to electronic health records, we examined the effect of initiating seizure prophylaxis (ie, epilepsy-specific antiseizure drugs) within 7 days of an AIS admission versus not initiating in patients ≥65 years admitted for a new, nonsevere AIS (National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity score ≤20) between 2014 and 2021 with no recorded use of epilepsy-specific antiseizure drugs in the previous 3 months. We addressed confounding by using inverse-probability weights. We performed standardization accounting for pertinent clinical and health care factors (eg, National Institutes of Health Stroke Severity scale, prescription counts, seizure-like events). The study sample included 151 patients who received antiseizure drugs and 3020 who did not. The crude 30-day mortality risks were 219 deaths per 1000 patients among epilepsy-specific antiseizure drugs initiators and 120 deaths per 1000 among noninitiators. After standardization, the estimated mortality was 251 (95% CI, 190-307) deaths per 1000 among initiators and 120 (95% CI, 86-144) deaths per 1000 among noninitiators, corresponding to a risk difference of 131 (95% CI, 65-200) excess deaths per 1000 patients. In the prespecified subgroup analyses, the risk difference was 52 (95% CI, 11-72) among patients with minor AIS and 138 (95% CI, 52-222) among moderate-to-severe AIS patients. Similarly, the risk differences were 86 (95% CI, 18-118) and 157 (95% CI, 57-219) among patients aged 65 to 74 years and ≥75 years, respectively. There was a higher risk of 30-day mortality associated with initiating versus not initiating seizure prophylaxis within 7 days post-AIS. This study does not support the role of seizure prophylaxis in reducing 30-day poststroke mortality.

Prognostic Implication of Admission Mean and Pulse Pressure in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure With Different Phenotypes.

It remains unknown whether admission mean (MAP) and pulse pressure (PP) pressure are associated with short- and long-term mortality in Chinese patients with heart failure with preserved (HFpEF), mid-range (HFmrEF), and reduced (HFrEF) ejection fraction. In 2,706 acute decompensated heart failure (HF) patients, we assessed the risk of 30-day, 1-year, and long-term (>1 year) mortality with 1-SD increment in MAP and PP, using multivariable logistic and Cox regression, respectively. During a median follow-up of 4.1 years, 1,341 patients died. The 30-day, 1-year, and long-term mortality were 3.5%, 16.7%, and 39.4%, respectively. A lower MAP was associated with a higher risk of 30-day mortality in women (P = 0.023) and a higher risk of 30-day and 1-year mortality in men (P ≤ 0.006), while higher PP predicted long-term mortality in men (P ≤ 0.014) with no relationship observed in women. In adjusted analyses additionally accounted for PP, 1-SD increment in MAP was associated with 30-day mortality in HFpEF (odds ratio [OR], 0.63; 95% CI, 0.43 to 0.92; P = 0.018), with 1-year mortality in HFmrEF (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.66; P < 0.001) and HFrEF (OR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.40 to 0.72; P < 0.001). In the adjusted model additionally accounted for MAP, 1-SD increment in PP was associated with long-term mortality in HFpEF (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.05 to 1.28; P = 0.003). A lower MAP was associated with a higher risk of short-term mortality in all HF subtypes, while a higher PP predicted a higher risk of long-term mortality in men and in HFpEF. Our observations highlight the clinical importance of admission blood pressure for risk stratification in HF subtypes.

Residual Syntax Score as a Predictor of 30-Day Mortality after Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Acute ST-Elevation Myocardial Infarction

Objective: To evaluate residual SYNTEX score as a predictor of 30-day mortality after primarypercutaneous coronary intervention (P-PCI) in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients. Methodology: It was a quasi-experimental study conducted in the Emergency department of Rawalpindi Institute of Cardiology from September 2019 to September 2020. After the study approval from the ethics committee and informed consent, 200 patients presenting with acute STEMI were included by convenient sampling. Primary PCI was done in all patients by theconsultant cardiologists, and then the residual SYNTEX score (rSS) was calculated for each patient. Patients were allocated the case or control group based on rSS: patients with complete revascularization were included in controls and those with incomplete revascularization were labeled as cases. All patients were followed after primary PCI for 30-day mortality. The analysis of data was carried out by the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 25. Results: The 30-day mortality occurred in 11(5.5%) patients. Mortality occurred in 9(4.5%) patients in the case group and 2(1%) patients in the control group with a significant p-value of 0.03There was a significant association between diabetes mellitus &amp; 30-day mortality (0.032) and a family history of ischemic heart disease &amp; 30-day mortality (0.026). This shows that rSS can be used as a reliable predictor of 30-day mortality after P-PCI in STEMI patients. The patients with high rSS score and risk factors of diabetes mellitus and history of ischemic heart disease are at higher risk of 30-day mortality. Conclusion: The residual Syntax score is a simple, reliable and significant marker of 30-day mortality after P-PCI in STEMI patients. It provides an accurate assessment of the extent of revascularization needed to prevent coronary artery disease and enhance the prognosis following P-PCI. It may also serve as a guide for additional PCI decisions. Keywords: Residual Syntax score; rSS; Primary percutaneous coronary intervention;Acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction; STEMI; P-PCI

Abstract 12534: Comparative Performance of Distinct Frailty Measures Among Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Left Atrial Appendage Closure

Introduction: Frailty is associated with increased morbidity and mortality in patients undergoing left atrial appendage closure (LAAC). We compared the performance of two claims-based frailty measures in predicting adverse outcomes following LAAC. Methods: We identified patients 65 years and older who underwent LAAC between October 1, 2016 and December 31, 2019 in Medicare fee-for-service claims. Frailty was assessed using the previously validated Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) and Kim Claims-based Frailty Index (CFI). Patients were identified as frail based on HFRS ≥5 and CFI ≥0.25. Results: Of the 21,787 patients who underwent LAAC, frailty was identified in 45.6% by HFRS and 15.4% by CFI. There was modest agreement between the two frailty measures (kappa 0.25, Pearson’s correlation 0.62). After adjusting for age, sex, and comorbidities, frailty was associated with higher risk of 30-day mortality, 1-year mortality, 30-day readmission, long hospital stay, and short time at home (p&lt;0.01 for all) regardless of the frailty instrument used. Model discrimination was similar between the HFRS and the CFI with fair discrimination of all outcomes (C-statistic 0.686 - 0.759). The addition of frailty to standard comorbidities significantly improved model performance to predict 1-year mortality, long hospital stay, and short time at home (Delong p-value &lt;0.001). Conclusions: Despite significant variation in frailty detection and only modest agreement between the two frailty measures, frailty status was highly predictive of mortality, readmission, long hospital stay, and days at home. Future studies should focus on prospective evaluation of frailty in patients eligible for LAAC, which may further refine the relationship between frailty and adverse outcomes, and help inform shared decision-making in this population.

Abstract 10864: Reduction in Right Ventricular Strain is Associated With Increased Mortality in Acute Pulmonary Embolism

Introduction: Right ventricular (RV) systolic dysfunction has been identified as a prognostic marker for adverse clinical events in patients presenting with acute pulmonary embolism (PE). However, problems exist in identifying RV dysfunction using conventional echocardiography. Strain echocardiography is an evolving imaging modality which measures myocardial deformation and can be used as an objective index of RV systolic function. Hypothesis: We hypothesized that RV strain analysis is prognostic of mortality in patients with acute PE. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 177 patients with acute PE between 2010 and 2017. Strain analysis was retroactively applied. All echocardiograms were completed within 48 hours of diagnosis. RV global longitudinal strain (RVGLS) was applied using TomTec®. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 30 days and in-hospital mortality. T-test statistical analysis was performed. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and Kaplan-Meier curves were used for evaluation. Results: Study quality was sufficient to perform RVGLS analysis in 157 patients (90.2%). Mortality at 30 days and in-hospital mortality occurred in 12.7% and 8.9% of patients respectively. Comparing 30-day mortality, there was a significant reduction in RVGLS compared to survivors (13.0% ± 3.0% vs 19.6% ± 3.5%, p &lt; 0.001). In-hospital mortality as well showed a significant difference (13.1% ± 3.3% vs 19.3% ± 3.7%, p &lt; 0.001). Using ROC curves, we chose a RVGLS value of 17.5% (sensitivity 90%, specificity 74%) to predict 30-day mortality. Patients with RVGLS worse than 17.5% had 18 times higher risk of 30-day mortality compared to patients with RVGLS better than 17.5% (HR 18.4, 95% CI= 4.2-79.7, p &lt; 0.001. Figure). Conclusions: RV strain have significant prognostic value in patients with acute PE, and identifying those at higher risk of death. Assessment of RV strain has promise for clinical applications.

Clinical presentation and outcomes of acute heart failure in the critically ill patient: A prospective, observational, multicentre study

AimsTo assess the clinical profile and factors associated with 30-day mortality in patients with acute heart failure (AHF) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). DesignProspective, multicentre cohort study. ScopeThirty-two Spanish ICUs. PatientsAdult patients admitted to the ICU between April and June 2017. InterventionPatients were classified into three groups according to AHF status: without AHF (no AHF); AHF as the primary reason for ICU admission (primary AHF); and AHF developed during the ICU stay (secondary AHF). Main variables of interestIncidence of AHF and 30-day mortality. ResultsA total of 4330 patients were included. Of these, 627 patients (14.5%) had primary (n=319; 7.4%) or secondary (n=308; 7.1%) AHF. Among the main precipitating factors, fluid overload was more common in the secondary AHF group than in the primary group (12.9% vs 23.4%, p<0.001). Patients with AHF had a higher risk of 30-day mortality than those without AHF (OR 2.45; 95% CI: 1.93–3.11). APACHE II, cardiogenic shock, left ventricular ejection fraction, early inotropic therapy, and diagnostic delay were independently associated with 30-day mortality in AHF patients. Diagnostic delay was associated with a significant increase in 30-day mortality in the secondary group (OR 6.82; 95% CI 3.31–14.04). ConclusionsThe incidence of primary and secondary AHF was similar in this cohort of ICU patients. The risk of developing AHF in ICU patients can be reduced by avoiding modifiable precipitating factors, particularly fluid overload. Diagnostic delay was associated with significantly higher mortality rates in patients with secondary AHF.

The association between beta-blockers and outcomes in patients with heart failure and concurrent Alzheimer's disease and related dementias.

Contemporary patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) are older and have a higher prevalence of cognitive impairment than those studied in trials. The risk/benefit trade-off of routine beta-blocker (BB) use in patients with HFrEF and Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRD) has not been explored. This study aimed to determine the association between BB use and outcomes among patients with HFrEF and ADRD. Using a random 40% sample of Medicare Parts A, B, and D data we identified patients with ≥1 hospitalization for HFrEF between 2008 and 2018. Each patient was classified based on BB use prior to admission and after discharge. Outcomes include 90-day and 1-year mortality and readmission. Between 2008 and 2018, we identified 357,030 patients hospitalized with HFrEF; 12.7% had ADRD. Patients with HFrEF and ADRD had higher 90-day and 1-year mortality compared to patients with HFrEF-only. Among patients admitted on a BB, 60.5% of patients with HFrEF-only were continued on therapy after discharge, compared to 56.8% of patients with HFrEF and ADRD. Discontinuing BB was associated with a 2.2-fold higher risk of 90-day mortality (p< 0.001) among patients with HF-only and a 2.- fold higher risk of 90-day mortality (p< 0.001) among patients with HFrEF+ ADRD. Not starting a BB was associated with a 1.8-fold higher risk of 90-day mortality (p< 0.001) among patients with HFrEF-only and a 1.7-fold higher risk of 90-day mortality (p< 0.001) among patients with HFrEF+ ADRD. Similar risks were seen at 1year. BB therapy is associated with significantly lower short and long-term mortality rates among all patients with HFrEF; the magnitude of these associated benefits appear at least as large in patients with HFrEF and ADRD compared to patients with HFrEF-only.

S654 Early Colonoscopy Is Associated With Lower Mortality in Stable Diverticular Bleeding: A National Database Study

Introduction: Major GI societies recommend early colonoscopy (within 24 to 48 hours) for acute, high risk, lower GI bleeds, of which diverticular bleeds comprise about 20 to 40 percent. There is paucity of evidence regarding the timing of colonoscopy for stable presumed diverticular bleeds. Majority of these patients are managed conservatively with outpatient follow up colonoscopy at a later date. Methods: This was a retrospective case-control study. We queried a large national database (TriNetX, LLC.) which aggregates data from 59 healthcare organizations across the United States comprising more than 70 million patients using ICD-10 and CPT codes. All patients were adults ≥ 18 years with known diverticulosis experiencing their first ever lower GI bleed and deemed to be clinically sTable: Cases had a colonoscopy within 7 days of the lower GI bleed, whereas controls had a colonoscopy after 7 days following the lower GI bleed. Patients requiring ICU admission were excluded from both groups. Additionally, patients with upper GI bleeds or presence of any condition that would predispose to a GI bleed (esophageal varices, peptic ulcers, angiodysplasias, GI malignancies, platelet disorders, complement factor deficiencies, etc) were excluded. We also excluded all patients with acute diverticulitis. The cohorts were propensity matched for demographics and comorbidities as shown in Table. Cases and controls were compared for outcomes of interest and odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) were calculated. Results: There were 13,890 cases of stable diverticular bleed who had a colonoscopy within 7 days and 103,718 controls with a stable diverticular bleed who had a colonoscopy after 7 days. After propensity matching, there were 12,502 patients in each group (Table). Patients in the late colonoscopy group ( > 7 days) had a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality (HR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.33, 2.41). On the other hand, the controls had a lower risk of 30-day re-admissions (OR = 0.88, 95% CI = 0.82, 0.95). There were no significant differences between cases and controls with respect to need for blood transfusion (OR = 1.0, 95% CI = 0.72, 1.40). Conclusion: Early colonoscopy within 7 days seems to confer a survival benefit in patients with stable diverticular bleeds when compared to performing colonoscopy after 7 days. Large prospective randomized controlled trials would be necessary to confirm these findings. Table 1. - Baseline characteristics of patients with stable diverticular bleed who underwent colonoscopy Unmatched cohorts Propensity matched cohorts Colonoscopy < 7 days (N = 13,890) Colonoscopy > 7 days (N = 103,718) Colonoscopy < 7 days (N = 12,502) Colonoscopy > 7 days (N = 12,502) Age at index 63.4 +/- 15.2 years 64.2 +/- 15.9 years 63.4 +/- 15.2 years 63.4 +/- 15.3 years White race 8,752 (70%) 67,415 (68.7%) 8,752 (70%) 8,889 (71.1%) Male 5,717 (45.7%) 43,326 (44.1%) 5,717 (45.7%) 5,648 (45.2%) Nicotine dependence 1,536 (12.3%) 11,435 (11.7%) 1,536 (12.3%) 1,414 (11.3%) Alcohol abuse 496 (4%) 3,196 (3.3%) 496 (4%) 391 (3.1%) Hypertension 6,547 (52.4%) 50,258 (51.2%) 6,547 (52.4%) 6,611 (52.9%) Chronic kidney disease 1,351 (10.8%) 11,523 (11.7%) 1,351 (10.8%) 1,272 (10.2%) Type 2 diabetes 2,579 (20.6%) 20,162 (20.5%) 2,579 (20.6%) 2,532 (20.5%) BMI ≥ 30 4,424 (35.4%) 29,734 (30.3% 4,424 (35.4%) 4,090 (32.7%) Atherosclerosis 633 (5.1%) 5,812 (5.9%) 633 (5.1%) 544 (4.4%) NSAID use 3,921 (31.4%) 29,896 (30.5%) 3,921 (31.4%) 4,017 (32.1%) Anticoagulant use 2,810 (22.5%) 21,327 (21.7%) 2,810 (22.5%) 2,792 (22.3%) Anti-platelet agent use 3,532 (28.3%) 24,942 (25.4%) 3,532 (28.3%) 3,459 (27.7%)

Association between predialysis creatinine and mortality in acute kidney injury patients requiring dialysis.

Creatinine is widely used to estimate renal function, but this is not practical in critical illness. Low creatinine has been associated with mortality in many clinical settings. However, the associations between predialysis creatinine level, Sepsis-related Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score, fluid overload, and mortality in acute kidney injury patients receiving dialysis therapy (AKI-D) has not been fully addressed. We extracted data for AKI-D patients in the eICU and MIMIC databases. We conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using the eICU dataset. The study cohort was divided into the high-creatine group and the low-creatinine group by the median value (4 mg/dL). The baseline patient information included demographic data, laboratory tests, medications, and comorbid conditions. The independent association of creatinine level with 30-day mortality was examined using multivariate logistic regression analysis. In sensitivity analyses, the associations between creatinine, SOFA score, and mortality were analyzed in patients with or without fluid overload. We also carried out an external validity using the MIMIC dataset. In all 1,600 eICU participants, the 30-day mortality rate was 34.2%. The crude overall mortality rate in the low-creatinine group (44.9%) was significantly higher than that in the high-creatinine group (21.9%; P < 0.001). In the fully adjusted models, the low-creatinine group was associated with a higher risk of 30-day mortality (odds ratio, 1.77; 95% confidence interval, 1.29-2.42; P < 0.001) compared with the high-creatinine group. The low-creatinine group had higher SOFA and nonrenal SOFA scores. In sensitivity analyses, the low-creatinine group had a higher 30-day mortality rate with regard to the BMI or albumin level. Fluid overloaded patients were associated with a significantly worse survival in the low-creatinine group. The results were consistent when assessing the external validity using the MIMIC dataset. In patients with AKI-D, lower predialysis creatinine was associated with increased mortality risk. Moreover, the mortality rate was substantially higher in patients with lower predialysis creatinine with concomitant elevation of fluid overload status.

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on the Epidemiology-Based Mortality Score in Status Epilepticus (EMSE) Parameters to Predict 30-day Mortality in Status Epilepticus.

To develop a nomogram using the parameters of the Epidemiology-Based Mortality Score in Status Epilepticus (EMSE) and to evaluate its accuracy compared with the EMSE alone in the prediction of 30-day mortality in patients with status epilepticus (SE). We included a cohort of patients with SE aged ≥ 21years admitted from 2013 to 2021. Regression coefficients from the multivariable logistic regression model were used to generate a nomogram predicting the risk of 30-day mortality. Discrimination of the nomogram was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUCROC) with 95% confidence interval. Internal validation was performed by bootstrap resampling. Among 698 patients with SE, the 30-day mortality rate was 28.9% (202 of 698). On the multivariable analysis, all EMSE parameters (except for the comorbidity group including metastatic solid tumor or AIDS) were associated with a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality and were included in the nomogram. The discriminatory capability of the nomogram with bootstrap resampling (5000 resamples) had an AUCROC of 0.830 (95% confidence interval 0.798-0.862). Conversely, the AUCROC of the EMSE was 0.777 (95% confidence interval 0.742-0.813). Thus, the probability that a patient who died within 30days from SE had a higher score than a patient who survived was 83%, indicating good discriminatory power of the nomogram. Conversely, the risk predicted using the EMSE alone was 77%. The nomogram was well calibrated. A nomogram based on EMSE parameters appears superior to the EMSE in predicting the risk of 30-day mortality after SE. The discrimination and calibration of the nomogram shows a better predictive accuracy than the EMSE alone.

A Tool to Estimate Risk of 30-day Mortality and Complications After Hip Fracture Surgery: Accurate Enough for Some but Not All Purposes? A Study From the ACS-NSQIP Database.

Surgical repair of hip fracture carries substantial short-term risks of mortality and complications. The risk-reward calculus for most patients with hip fractures favors surgical repair. However, some patients have low prefracture functioning, frailty, and/or very high risk of postoperative mortality, making the choice between surgical and nonsurgical management more difficult. The importance of high-quality informed consent and shared decision-making for frail patients with hip fracture has recently been demonstrated. A tool to accurately estimate patient-specific risks of surgery could improve these processes. With this study, we sought (1) to develop, validate, and estimate the overall accuracy (C-index) of risk prediction models for 30-day mortality and complications after hip fracture surgery; (2) to evaluate the accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and false discovery rates) of risk prediction thresholds for identifying very high-risk patients; and (3) to implement the models in an accessible web calculator. In this comparative study, preoperative demographics, comorbidities, and preoperatively known operative variables were extracted for all 82,168 patients aged 18 years and older undergoing surgery for hip fracture in the American College of Surgeons National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) between 2011 and 2017. Eighty-two percent (66,994 of 82,168 ) of patients were at least 70 years old, 21% (17,007 of 82,168 ) were at least 90 years old, 70% (57,260 of 82,168 ) were female, and 79% (65,301 of 82,168 ) were White. A total of 5% (4260 of 82,168) of patients died within 30 days of surgery, and 8% (6786 of 82,168) experienced a major complication. The ACS-NSQIP database was chosen for its clinically abstracted and reliable data from more than 600 hospitals on important surgical outcomes, as well as rich characterization of preoperative demographic and clinical predictors for demographically diverse patients. Using all the preoperative variables in the ACS-NSQIP dataset, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression, a type of machine learning that selects variables to optimize accuracy and parsimony, was used to develop and validate models to predict two primary outcomes: 30-day postoperative mortality and any 30-day major complications. Major complications were defined by the occurrence of ACS-NSQIP complications including: on a ventilator longer than 48 hours, intraoperative or postoperative unplanned intubation, septic shock, deep incisional surgical site infection (SSI), organ/space SSI, wound disruption, sepsis, intraoperative or postoperative myocardial infarction, intraoperative or postoperative cardiac arrest requiring cardiopulmonary resuscitation, acute renal failure needing dialysis, pulmonary embolism, stroke/cerebral vascular accident, and return to the operating room. Secondary outcomes were six clusters of complications recently developed and increasingly used for the development of surgical risk models, namely: (1) pulmonary complications, (2) infectious complications, (3) cardiac events, (4) renal complications, (5) venous thromboembolic events, and (6) neurological events. Tenfold cross-validation was used to assess overall model accuracy with C-indexes, a measure of how well models discriminate patients who experience an outcome from those who do not. Using the models, the predicted risk of outcomes for each patient were used to estimate the accuracy (sensitivity, specificity, and false discovery rates) of a wide range of predicted risk thresholds. We then implemented the prediction models into a web-accessible risk calculator. The 30-day mortality and major complication models had good to fair discrimination (C-indexes of 0.76 and 0.64, respectively) and good calibration throughout the range of predicted risk. Thresholds of predicted risk to identify patients at very high risk of 30-day mortality had high specificity but also high false discovery rates. For example, a 30-day mortality predicted risk threshold of 15% resulted in 97% specificity, meaning 97% of patients who lived longer than 30 days were below that risk threshold. However, this threshold had a false discovery rate of 78%, meaning 78% of patients above that threshold survived longer than 30 days and might have benefitted from surgery. The tool is available here: https://s-spire-clintools.shinyapps.io/hip_deploy/ . The models of mortality and complications we developed may be accurate enough for some uses, especially personalizing informed consent and shared decision-making with patient-specific risk estimates. However, the high false discovery rate suggests the models should not be used to restrict access to surgery for high-risk patients. Deciding which measures of accuracy to prioritize and what is "accurate enough" depends on the clinical question and use of the predictions. Discrimination and calibration are commonly used measures of overall model accuracy but may be poorly suited to certain clinical questions and applications. Clinically, overall accuracy may not be as important as knowing how accurate and useful specific values of predicted risk are for specific purposes.Level of Evidence Level III, therapeutic study.

Major candidate variables to guide personalised treatment with steroids in critically ill patients with COVID-19: CIBERESUCICOVID study.

PurposeAlthough there is evidence supporting the benefits of corticosteroids in patients affected with severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), there is little information related to their potential benefits or harm in some subgroups of patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) with COVID-19. We aim to investigate to find candidate variables to guide personalized treatment with steroids in critically ill patients with COVID-19.MethodsMulticentre, observational cohort study including consecutive COVID-19 patients admitted to 55 Spanish ICUs. The primary outcome was 90-day mortality. Subsequent analyses in clinically relevant subgroups by age, ICU baseline illness severity, organ damage, laboratory findings and mechanical ventilation were performed. High doses of corticosteroids (≥ 12 mg/day equivalent dexamethasone dose), early administration of corticosteroid treatment (< 7 days since symptom onset) and long term of corticosteroids (≥ 10 days) were also investigated.ResultsBetween February 2020 and October 2021, 4226 patients were included. Of these, 3592 (85%) patients had received systemic corticosteroids during hospitalisation. In the propensity-adjusted multivariable analysis, the use of corticosteroids was protective for 90-day mortality in the overall population (HR 0.77 [0.65–0.92], p = 0.003) and in-hospital mortality (SHR 0.70 [0.58–0.84], p < 0.001). Significant effect modification was found after adjustment for covariates using propensity score for age (p = 0.001 interaction term), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score (p = 0.014 interaction term), and mechanical ventilation (p = 0.001 interaction term). We observed a beneficial effect of corticosteroids on 90-day mortality in various patient subgroups, including those patients aged ≥ 60 years; those with higher baseline severity; and those receiving invasive mechanical ventilation at ICU admission. Early administration was associated with a higher risk of 90-day mortality in the overall population (HR 1.32 [1.14–1.53], p < 0.001). Long-term use was associated with a lower risk of 90-day mortality in the overall population (HR 0.71 [0.61–0.82], p < 0.001). No effect was found regarding the dosage of corticosteroids. Moreover, the use of corticosteroids was associated with an increased risk of nosocomial bacterial pneumonia and hyperglycaemia.ConclusionCorticosteroid in ICU-admitted patients with COVID-19 may be administered based on age, severity, baseline inflammation, and invasive mechanical ventilation. Early administration since symptom onset may prove harmful.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00134-022-06726-w.

Utilité de l’évaluation de l’état nutritionnel à l’aide de l’indice de risque nutritionnel gériatrique comme facteur prédictif indépendant de la mortalité à 30 jours après un traitement opératoire d’une fracture de hanche

IntroductionThe Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI) is an objective nutritional status assessment tool used for predicting mortality risk in hospitalized patients. However, it is unclear whether GNRI reflects short-term mortality for hip fracture patients after surgery. We examined the usefulness of the nutritional status assessed by the GNRI and identified cutoff scores that predict mortality risk. Does GNRI on admission predict the mortality after surgery for hip fracture? HypothesisEvaluation of GNRI could help identify patients at higher risk of 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. Materials and methodsThis retrospective study used data from 1040 patients who underwent hip fracture surgery. Fatalities within 30days after hip fracture surgery were investigated. The GNRI was calculated on admission in all patients as follows: 14.89×serum albumin (g/dL)+41.7×body mass index/22. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to calculate the area under the curve (AUC) and the optimal cutoff score that could predict 30-day mortality after hip fracture surgery. This cutoff score was used for comparing the mortality rates between patient groups with a GNRI higher and lower than the cutoff score using Fisher's exact test. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine risk factors of 30-day mortality. ResultsThere were 17 fatalities (1.6%) in the cohort. The ROC-AUC value was 0.811, and the cutoff GNRI was 75.4. Mortality was significantly higher in the group with a GNRI<75.4 compared with the group with a GNRI≥75.4 (odds ratio [OR]: 22.99; 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 7.55–78.05; p=0.00000004). A GNRI<75.4 was a significant predictor of mortality within 30-days after hip fracture surgery (OR: 27.1; 95% CI: 8.57–85.9; p≤0.0001). DiscussionOur results show that nutritional status assessment using GNRI can help predict 30-day mortality among geriatric patients undergoing surgery for hip fracture. The GNRI is a simple and accurate tool for predicting the risk of mortality after hip fracture surgery. Level of evidenceIV; case series study.