High Probability Of Occurrence Research Articles

Drought Class Probability Analysis for the Küçük Menderes River Basin

Drought is a complex natural hazard that may take many years to develop and that has significant effects on human life, environmental systems, and the economy. Its impacts may also be serious and costly. This study, considering the fact that drought is a significant natural disaster, aimed to investigate the characteristics of drought in the Küçük Menderes River Basin. Among several drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) were used for drought analysis. SPI and SDI were applied to the monthly precipitation data of Selçuk and Ödemis meteorological stations with nos. 17854 and 17822, and to the monthly flow data of Selçuk and Bülbüller flow gauging stations with nos. E06A001 and D06A012, respectively. Drought classes for each month were obtained through the referred drought indices. Using the drought classes, meteorological and hydrological droughts were statistically investigated at a regional scale by determining the drought classes’ occurrence probabilities, the expected residence time in each drought severity class, the expected first transition time, and the drought class with the highest probability of occurrence in the near future.

Occurrence and Distribution of Philippine Warty Pig (Sus philippensis Nehring, 1886) in Mt. Banahaw de Tayabas, Luzon Island, Philippines

This study determined the occurrence and distribution of Philippine warty pig (Sus philippensis) in Mt. Banahaw de Tayabas using camera trapping and indirect signs. The Philippine warty pig is an endemic species of wild pig in the Philippines and is currently listed as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List because of the presence of several threats such as hunting, habitat fragmentation, and the current outbreak of African swine fever (ASF). Camera trap stations were established with 10 camera traps functioning 24 h for 17 d along different elevations. Different species distribution models (BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, and MAXENT) were constructed using 19 bioclimatic predictors to determine the potential distribution of the species in Mt. Banahaw. Results from three different SDMs suggested that Philippine warty pigs prefer to occupy secondary growth forests, as a high probability of occurrence was observed within 600–800 m above sea level (masl). Models also predicted that Philippine warty pigs occupy large portions of Mt. Banahaw de Tayabas, although sparsely in the extreme southern and northern sections of the mountain. The most reliable model that predicted the distribution of the species was MAXENT, as it acquired the highest area under curve (AUC) among the three SDMs. This study confirmed the presence of Philippine warty pigs in Mt. Banahaw de Tayabas and its preferred habitat. The data and information generated here will be useful for the local community’s plans in conserving and managing this endemic species. Additional recommendations also include investigating the population size within and outside the protected area and establishing baseline data to assess the impact of ASF.

Utilisation of bioactive glass S53P4 inside an induced membrane for severe bone defect with high risk of infection: a multi-center preliminary experience

BackgroundThe induced membrane technique has been developed to address bone defect of critical size from various origins. Despite its exceptional efficacy, several cases underwent a failure, which is regularly associated with a septic problem. The best way to conduct in this situation remains debated. PurposeTo estimate use of bioactive glass S53P4 (BAG-53P4) in induced membrane technique failures or with an anticipated high risk of failure. Material and methodWe conducted a retrospective analysis of patients from several medical centers in Europe where BAG-S53P4 has been used inside an induced membrane. The etiology of the defect, the bone fixation used, the delay the bioactive glass was placed, the reason why the bioactive glass was used and the results were reported. ResultsEight cases were included (3 women and 5 men). Mean age was 43 years (16-82; Standard deviation 23). Mean height was 171 cm (162-184; SD 7), mean weight was 69 kg (60-85; SD 8) and Body Mass Index was 23,39 M/Kg2 (21,9-25,1; SD 1,22). Mean length of defect was 68 mm (40-100mm, SD 23). All patients received BAG-S53P4 granules (BonAlive Biomaterials Ltd, Turku, Finland) to fill the resultant cavity (3 as a stand-alone in the induced membrane and 5 mixed with autograft). Three patients were implanted with BAG-S53P4 during the second stage of a first induced membrane technique because of a high risk of infection (three open fractures); two patients were implanted with BAG-S53P4 during the second stage of a first induced membrane technique because of the great size of the defect (two infectious non-union); two patients were implanted with BAG-S53P4 as a third stage of induced membrane technique, i.e. inside a previously grafted membrane, because of a recurrence of the infection; and one patient was implanted with BAG-S53P4 during the second stage of a second induced membrane technique to avoid a new failure. At a follow-up of 16 months, all healed without any recurrence of the infection. DiscussionCritical size bone defects caused by an open fracture or an active infection can usually be addressed by the induced membrane technique. However, some cases are at high risk of failure because of the occurrence or recurrence of an infection. In these cases, bioactive glass may help the surgeon to improve the rate of bone union. ConclusionBAG-S53P4 may be considered as bone graft in an induced membrane technique, especially when there is a high probability of occurrence or recurrence of a bone infection.

Effects of non-thermal termolecular reactions on detonation development in hydrogen (H[formula omitted])/methane (CH[formula omitted]) - air mixtures

The binary fuel blend of H2/CH4 is one of the most promising hydrogen-enriched hydrocarbon fuels in spark-ignition (SI) engines. Yet, the undesirable phenomenon of super-knock, which can severely and instantaneously damage an SI engine, limits its widespread adoption. Moreover, there is still a lack of consensus on the precise mechanism by which this phenomenon occurs i.e. via flame acceleration or spontaneous ignition, despite numerous previous investigations. At the same time, recent studies [M. P. Burke, S. J. Klippenstein, Nat. Chem. 9 (2017) 1078 - 1082, Y. Tao, A. W. Jasper, Y. Georgievskii, S. J. Klippenstein, R. Sivaramakrishnan, Proc. Combust. Inst. 38 (2021) 515–522] have demonstrated a high probability of occurrence of non-thermal reactions in premixed flames of such H2/CH4 fuel blends with air due to the presence of non-trivial amounts of highly reactive radicals including H, O and OH apart from O2. The present study focuses on the evolution of an initial deflagration front to a detonation wave in H2/CH4-air mixtures under SI engine relevant conditions through fully resolved, constant volume 1D simulations with and without non-thermal reactivity. Non-thermal reactions were included in the macroscopic kinetics model as chemically termolecular reactions facilitated by the H + CH3 and H + OH radical-radical recombination and the H + O2 radical-molecule association reactions. The nonthermal reactions result in a corresponding decrease in the reaction fluxes of the incipient recombination/association reactions. Therefore, an additional set of simulations were performed by applying corrections to the respective incipient recombination/association rate constants using the methodology demonstrated by Tao et al. [Y. Tao, A. W. Jasper, Y. Georgievskii, S. J. Klippenstein, R. Sivaramakrishnan, Proc. Combust. Inst. 38 (2021) 515–522]. Compared to the baseline case, the onset of spontaneous ignition in the end-gas region was observed to be delayed in the presence of non-thermal termolecular reactions. Concurrently, the developing detonation was observed to be significantly stronger. In contrast, applying corrections to the recombination/association rate constants resulted in a completely different behavior. Specifically, detonation was observed to occur due to self acceleration of the primary flame in the absence of spontaneous ignition in the end-gas region. Sensitivity analysis was performed to quantify the effects of non-thermal reactions on the duration of heat release rate and thereby the mechanism of detonation formation. In addition, chemical explosive mode analysis (CEMA) was performed to identify the dominant species/reactions responsible for the observed results.

Modelling the distribution of a key habitat feature to guide future on‐ground habitat assessment for an endangered specialist songbird

AbstractSpecies distribution models (SDMs) are often used during the planning stage of reintroduction programmes to model species' occurrence with the aim of selecting potential release sites. However, for many endangered species, only a low number of records are available, leading to models with low accuracy. When planning reintroductions for rare species, an alternative approach may be to model surrogate species that are more abundant or easier to locate. Here, we modelled the distribution of white gum (Eucalyptus viminalis), the preferred food tree of the forty‐spotted pardalote (Pardalotus quadragintus), a rare songbird for which reintroduction has been proposed. Using boosted regression trees, we modelled white gum distribution under current and future climate conditions with the aim of identifying areas of high probability of occurrence that later can be used to plan on ground habitat assessments for reintroductions. Our model show areas with high probability of white gum occurrence outside its currently mapped distribution, indicating that there may be opportunities for reintroduction of pardalotes beyond their current range. Predictions of future climate scenarios showed climate space shifts, not only with some decrease but also with substantial increase in the probability of suitability for occurrence under some scenarios. Our spatial predictions for white gum may be used to design a survey to ground‐truth our model and undertake a comprehensive habitat assessment for other habitat features forty‐spotted pardalotes need to persist. The approach used in our study may be used for other highly specialized species, not only in the context of reintroduction planning but also in the general management of data‐poor specialist species that depend on a more common resource.

Hydrodynamic analysis of a hybrid modular floating structure system under different wave directions

The present work reports a novel hybrid modular floating structure (HMFS) system consisting of a certain number of outermost box-type modules and inner semi-sub modules. Semi-sub modules are connected with ball joints in both longitudinal and transverse directions. Box-type modules are connected with adjacent semi-sub modules with pitch hinges. Outermost box-type modules mainly function as wave energy converters (WECs) and breakwaters. Based on the rigid module and flexible connector (RMFC) method, the effects of different wave directions, longitudinal expansion, positions of modules and connectors on hydrodynamic responses of the HMFS system are emphatically investigated under typical sea conditions. The results indicate that for the layout of the HMFS system, the transverse direction is recommended to be consistent with wave direction with the highest occurrence probability in terms of comprehensive consideration of module motions, connector loads, mooring forces as well as wave energy power. The HMFS system shows good longitudinal expansibility for mild marine environments. The positions of modules and connectors have significant effects on their hydrodynamic responses, and the corresponding mechanism has been preliminary clarified. In addition, the statistic information of extreme hydrodynamic responses under representative wave directions has been comparatively analyzed for the ultimate limit state design of the HMFS system.

Increased landscape disturbance and streamflow variability threaten fish biodiversity in the Red River catchment, USA

AbstractAimStream fish distributions are hypothesized to be strongly associated with landscape characteristics at multiple scales. Variation in flow regimes and intensity of landscape disturbance are associated with stream fish distributions; however, relationships are poorly understood in many high‐diversity regions. Our objective was to identify occurrence relationships between fish distributions and streamflow and landscape characteristics in the south‐central United States.LocationOur study area was the central Red River catchment in Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas, USA.MethodsWe used existing fish surveys to model the occurrence of a diverse, warmwater assemblage among hydraulic response units (HRUs). We used multispecies occupancy modelling to identify variation in occurrence probability among 111 stream fishes in relation to landscape disturbance and flow regime characteristics.ResultsWe found occurrence relationships with landscape disturbance and 11 metrics comprising all flow‐regime components. The relationships varied within both major species groups and some genera. Frequency and duration were the most common metrics underlying flow regime relationships. More common stream fishes tended to be positively associated with higher levels of landscape disturbance and flow regime metrics representing variability; conversely, narrow‐ranged fishes tended to be negatively associated. Occurrence relationships with flow metrics representing high‐flow events were predominately negative. As expected, many species were strongly associated with ecoregion with landscape disturbance and flow relationships held constant.Main conclusionsOur study informs land use and water management decisions and stream fish conservation at multiple spatial scales. Collectively, the findings suggest potential homogenization of the Red River fish assemblage with increased landscape disturbance and streamflow variability. A reduction in landscape disturbance and maintenance of natural flow patterns at coarser scales may benefit endemic and narrow‐ranged fishes. Our findings also help guide finer‐scale land use and water management decisions by identifying stream network areas with a high occurrence probability of less tolerant fishes.

From the Balkan towards Western Europe: Range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus)-A climatic niche modeling approach.

In recent decades, a rapid range expansion of the golden jackal (Canis aureus) towards Northern and Western Europe has been observed. The golden jackal is a medium‐sized canid, with a broad and flexible diet. Almost 200 different parasite species have been reported worldwide from C. aureus, including many parasites that are shared with dogs and cats and parasite species of public health concern. As parasites may follow the range shifts of their host, the range expansion of the golden jackal could be accompanied by changes in the parasite fauna in the new ecosystems. In the new distribution area, the golden jackal could affect ecosystem equilibrium, e.g., through changed competition situations or predation pressure. In a niche modeling approach, we project the future climatic habitat suitability of the golden jackal in Europe in the context of whether climatic changes promote range expansion. We use an ensemble forecast based on six presence‐absence algorithms to estimate the climatic suitability of C. aureus for different time periods up to the year 2100 considering different IPCC scenarios on future development. As predictor variables, we used six bioclimatic variables provided by worldclim. Our results clearly indicate that areas with climatic conditions analogous to those of the current core distribution area of the golden jackal in Europe will strongly expand towards the north and the west in future decades. Thus, the observed range expansion may be favored by climate change. The occurrence of stable populations can be expected in Central Europe. With regard to biodiversity and public health concerns, the population and range dynamics of the golden jackal should be surveyed. Correlative niche models provide a useful and frequently applied tool for this purpose. The results can help to make monitoring more efficient by identifying areas with suitable habitat and thus a higher probability of occurrence.

Medical genetic technologies in the biosafety system: a risk-based approach

The subject of the research is the legal mechanisms of regulation of public relations in the field of medical genetic technologies as an element of the biological security system of Russia. The purpose of the reasearch is to analyze the legal regulation of medical genetic technologies as an integral part of biosafety, taking into account their inherent features, to identify an assessment of the effectiveness of existing rationing mechanisms and to propose new more effective legal mechanisms. The methodological basis of the research consists of general scientific and special methods. The general scientific methods include system, structural-functional, formal-logical (deduction, induction, analysis, synthesis) methods. To achieve the purpose of the research work, special methods of legal science are also used: formal legal, legal modeling and others. The result of the research was the identification of a low-effective legal mechanism for regulating medical genetic technologies as an integral part of biosafety existing in domestic legislation. In this regard, we have proposed some directions for improving the current regulatory framework in the field of public relations under consideration. The results obtained can be used in educational activities in the courses "Social law", "Medical law". The novelty of the research work lies in the fact that for the first time medical genetic technologies are considered as an element of the biological security system of Russia, taking into account the characteristic features and social significance inherent in this type of genetic technologies, which were also highlighted for the first time. Also, the novelty is expressed in the parameters developed by the author for attributing medical genetic technologies to technologies of low, medium or high probability of occurrence of risks, which we have also identified. Based on the results of the study, we came to the conclusion that it is necessary to design truly effective legal mechanisms for regulating medical genetic technologies based on the proposals we have put forward to ensure the legally permissible level of biosafety in Russia when using medical genetic technologies.

Risk Identification and Assessment in Sustainable Housing Project: A Case of Housing Sector in Pakistan

Purpose: The study aims to identify the risk factors that are associated with the housing projects in Pakistan based on their relative importance. Moreover, this study intends to highlight the extreme, high and low risks that are involved in housing projects. Design/Methodology/Approach: The study adopts the quantitative research method and conducted a survey through a five-point Likert scale questionnaire. The study has collected 168 responses from the project managers, contractors, designers and consultants of housing projects in Pakistan. In order to examine the relative importance of the risk, the study has applied the Relative Importance Index (RII) method to analyse the risks. Findings: The results of the study depict that there are five extreme risks, ten high risks and 13 low risks which may contribute harm the sustainability of the housing projects. Moreover, all the critical risk factors have high probability of occurrence and extreme impact on the sustainability of the housing projects in Pakistan. Implications/Originality/Value: The practitioners are recommended to develop such projects that should not damage the ecology of the region in which they are located. Also the land should be determined on the basis of sociological and environmental consideration and not on land value alone.

Phylogeographic and Bioclimatic Determinants of the Dorsal Pattern Polymorphism in the Italian Wall Lizard, Podarcis siculus

The geographic variability of the dorsal pattern (DP) of the Italian wall lizard, Podarcis siculus, across its native range was studied with the aim of understanding whether the distributions of this phenotypic trait were more shaped by allopatric differentiation rather than adaptive processes. A total of 1298 georeferenced observations scattered across the Italian peninsula and the main islands (Sicily, Corsica and Sardinia) were obtained from citizen science databases and five DPs were characterized by different shapes of the dark pattern (“reticulated”, “campestris”, “reticulated/campestris” and “striped”) or by absence of it (“concolor”). Frequencies of different DP phenotypes differ between the two main mtDNA lineages settled in central-northern and in southern Italy, respectively. This pattern may be indicative of a role of long-term allopatric historical processes in determining the observed pattern. The analysis also identified a putative wide area of secondary contact, in central southern Italy, characterized by high diversity of the DP. Generalized Linear Models (GLMs), used to estimate a possible association between bioclimatic variables and the observed phenotypic variation, showed that each of the five DPs is correlated to different environmental factors and show a different distribution of areas with high probability of occurrence. However, for all but one of the DPs, the area with the greatest probability does not correspond exactly to the real distribution of the DP. Conversely, the “concolor” phenotype does not seem related to any particular mtDNA lineage and it shows a preference for areas with high temperature and low rainfall. This is in agreement with the expectation of low amount of melanin of the dorsal pattern that, in the study areas, is characterized by a light uniform coloration which could confer a better thermoregulation ability in high temperatures environments to avoid overheating.

Geomorphological drivers of deeper reef habitats around Seychelles

Mesophotic (30–150 m) and rariphotic (150–300 m) deeper reef habitats are important from an ecological and conservation perspective, yet remain understudied. Key knowledge gaps exist on the environmental patterns and processes that drive and shape their geographical distributions. Understanding these is particularly important for regions as the Western Indian Ocean, where deeper reefs are poorly known but support food security and host economically important species. Spatial predictive models of assemblage occurrences, using terrain variables as predictors, offer a solution to address knowledge gaps around deeper reef distributions. We identified relationships between seafloor geomorphology, quantified at multiple scales, and sessile benthic assemblages in four atoll seascapes in Seychelles using terrain models derived from high-resolution multibeam sonar and underwater video surveys. Using random forests and boosted regression trees, we demonstrated that terrain derivatives extracted over multiple scales perform as reliable predictors of deeper reef assemblages. The most influential environmental predictors were depth, distance to shore, topographic complexity, slope and curvature and substrate characteristics. The relative importance of predictors was explained by assemblage functional characteristics. Assemblage–environment relationships were used to produce probability distribution maps that showed similar distributional patterns for identified assemblages across locations, with high occurrence probabilities linked to complex geomorphological structures. Our results help contribute to a consistent baseline understanding of the relationship between seascape structure and mesophotic reef ecosystems in this area. Complex geomorphological structures, including terraces and paleoshorelines, supported high densities of mesophotic assemblages and could be considered priority habitats for management.

Ecology, occurrence and distribution of wild felids in Sarawak, Malaysian Borneo

AbstractSarawak is the largest state in the megadiverse country of Malaysia. Its rich biodiversity is threatened by land-use change and hunting, with mammalian carnivores particularly affected. Data on the ecology, occurrence and distribution of small carnivores are crucial to inform their effective conservation, but no large-scale assessments have previously been conducted in Sarawak. Here we examine the status of the five species of felids in Sarawak based on data from camera-trap studies over 17 years (May 2003–February 2021) across 31 study areas, including protected areas of various sizes, production forests and forest matrix within oil palm plantations. Felids were detected at 39% of 845 camera stations. The marbled cat Pardofelis marmorata and Sunda clouded leopard Neofelis diardi had higher probabilities of occurrence in protected than unprotected areas, and vice versa for the leopard cat Prionailurus bengalensis and bay cat Catopuma badia. The marbled and bay cats were mostly diurnal, and the leopard cat was predominantly nocturnal; activity patterns did not substantively differ between protected and unprotected sites. The probabilities of occurrence of marbled and bay cats increased with greater distance from roads. The leopard cat and flat-headed cat Prionailurus planiceps were more likely, and the clouded leopard less likely, to occur near rivers. Flat-headed cats preferred peat swamp forest, bay cats lowland forest, and marbled cats and clouded leopards occurred in both lowland and montane forest. Felids may tolerate higher elevations to avoid anthropogenic disturbance; therefore, it is critical to preserve lowland and mid-elevation habitats that provide refugia from climate change and the destruction of lowland habitat.

A Technical Assessment of Offshore Wind Energy in Mexico: A Case Study in Tehuantepec Gulf

The growing energy demand has increased the consumption of hydrocarbons in developing countries such as Mexico, which has contributed to accelerating global warming. Although Mexico has suitable offshore wind energy harvesting sites, technical assessments to identify technologies to be placed in specific locations are scarce. In Mexico, offshore wind resources are found in depths larger than 50 m. There, floating platforms are convenient for harnessing wind energy. This work presents a technical evaluation of offshore wind energy in one of the regions with a higher availability of wind resources on the Mexican coasts, the Tehuantepec Gulf, in the Pacific Ocean. First, a specific location is chosen to evaluate its maritime conditions and theoretical wind energy potential. Next, the performance of a floating offshore wind turbine platform has been investigated numerically using potential flow simulations. The motions of the platform were analyzed for different drafts when subjected to different environmental conditions in the evaluated region. These conditions include wave and wind scenarios with the highest probability of occurrence and the most extreme ones. From the evaluation of the platform dynamics in these scenarios, it was possible to identify the general working conditions of the platform. Results showed that the proposed FOWT could be suitable to be deployed in the region of interest for the most probable environmental conditions, presenting a possible energy production within 3–4 MW, approximately. However, motion stabilization should be required when subjected to extreme environmental conditions as the structure could significantly increase its surge and pitch motions. The simplified approach employed in this work can help perform the following steps in technical or practical resource assessments of wind energy in other places in Mexico or similar developing regions.

Analysis of fatigue cracking of orthotropic steel decks using XFEM

The cutouts of diaphragms and the weld tips of the U-rib-to-diaphragm connections are the very complex structural details in orthotropic steel decks, and are accordingly highly vulnerable to fatigue cracking. The majority of fatigue cracks in these details appear as a result of the stress concentrations and initial weld defects. To determine the reason for the high probability of occurrence of fatigue cracks at these types of fatigue detail categories, a numerical model was established using the extended finite element method (XFEM) to analyze the cracking of diaphragm of an experimental 1:2 scaled deck segment model. This numerical analysis indicated that the cracks that appear at the diaphragm cutouts and near the weld toes of U-rib-to-diaphragm connections are induced by the relative horizontal displacement between the deck plate and diaphragm along the longitudinal axis of the bridge rather than by vertical deflection or moment due to live load. Additionally, stress concentrations play an important role in the initiation and propagation of cracks in these regions. The contribution of the out-of-plane displacement to fatigue cracking may be the most significant, and can frequently result in crack initiation and propagation prior to any cracking caused by vertical deflection or in-plane stresses. The XFEM approach is a useful numerical method for modelling the fatigue cracking of orthotropic steel decks.

A Design to Predict and Analyze Crime

Abstract: Crime is one of the dominant and alarming aspect of our society. Over the past few years, the crime rate across globe has increased exponentially. So, preventing the crime from occurring is a vital task. In the recent time, it is seen that artificial intelligence has shown its importance in almost all the field and crime prediction is one of them. However, it is necessary to maintain a proper database of the crime that has occurred. The ability to predict the crime on the basis of time, location and so on which can occur in future can help the law enforcement agencies in preventing the crime before it occurs from a strategical perspective. However, predicting the crime accurately is a challenging task because crimes are increasing at an alarming rate. Thus, the crime prediction and analysis methods are very important to detect the future crimes and reduce them. In Recent time, many researchers have conducted experiments to predict the crimes using various machine learning methods and particular inputs. For crime prediction, KNN, K-means and Random Forest and some other algorithms are used. Our system can predict regions which have high probability for crime occurrence and can visualize crime prone areas. The main purpose is to highlight the worth and effectiveness of machine learning in predicting violent crimes occurring in a particular region in such a way that it can be used by police to reduce crime rates in the society.

Multi-index probabilistic anomaly detection for large span bridges using Bayesian estimation and evidential reasoning

To measure uncertainties within anomaly detection and distinguish sensor faults from anomalous events, a multi-index probabilistic anomaly detection approach is proposed for large span bridges based on Bayesian estimation and evidential reasoning. To avoid false detection raised by signal spikes, an energy index is first defined and extracted from pre-processed measurements, including missing data recovery and thermal response separation. Then, a probabilistic index, namely, certainty degree, is derived from probability density functions of detection triggers – extreme values predicted by using Bayesian estimation of the generalized Pareto distribution. To distinguish sensor faults from anomalous scenarios, evidential reasoning is applied to incorporate multiple certainty degrees into a joint one under the assumption that the probability of multi-sensor failing simultaneously is extremely low. Specifically, a large joint certainty degree indicates a high occurrence probability of anomalous scenarios, while a small one together with a large individual certainty degree depicts a high probability of sensor faults. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed anomaly detection method is validated through structural health monitoring data from the Nanjing Dashengguan Yangtze River Bridge. Measurements from four sensors, that is, three cable forces and one deflection, are selected to detect anomalies based on their high pair-wise correlations. Two case studies are presented, namely, sensor fault detection and snow disaster detection. The sensor fault is detected through a certainty degree of almost 100% for the individual index and a joint certainty degree of nearly 0. The snowstorm is detected by a joint certainty degree of 36.82%.

Energetic and Ecological Effects of the Slow Steaming Application and Gasification of Container Ships

One of the short-term operational measures for fuel savings and reducing CO2 emissions from ships at sea is sailing at reduced speed, i.e., slow steaming, while the gasification of the ship represents an important mid-term technical measure. In this study, the energetic and ecological benefits of slow steaming and gasification are studied for a container ship sailing between Shanghai and Hamburg. Resistance and propulsion characteristics in calm water are calculated using computational fluid dynamics based on the viscous flow theory for a full-scale ship, while the added resistance in waves is calculated by applying potential flow theory. The propeller operating point is determined for the design and slow steaming speeds at sea states with the highest probability of occurrence through the investigated sailing route. Thereafter, the fuel consumption and CO2 emissions are calculated for a selected dual fuel engine in fuel oil- and gas-supplying modes complying with IMO Tier II and Tier III requirements. The results demonstrate a significant reduction in fuel consumption and CO2 emissions for various slow steaming speeds compared to the design speed at different sea states, and for the gasification of a container ship. For realistic weather conditions through the investigated route, the potential reduction in CO2 emissions per year could be up to 11.66 kt/year for fuel oil mode and 8.53 kt/year for gas-operating mode. CO2 emission reduction per year due to gasification under realistic weather conditions could be up to 22 kt/year.

Notes on the life history ofCenturio senex(Chiroptera: Phyllostomidae) from northern Central America

AbstractThe wrinkled-faced bat (Centurio senex) is an enigmatic species widely distributed in Mesoamerica. Besides its wide distribution it is considered rare in almost the entire range and little is known about its life history. We provide notes and discuss on the natural history of the species and performed a distribution model and an elevation profile in order to understand the distribution patterns in Northern Central America. We found thatC. senexinhabits ecosystems from lowlands to 1943 m, with higher probability of occurrence in the Pacific region and the mountains of Guatemala in which seasonal precipitation regimes predominates.

Evolution Characteristics of Sand-Dust Weather Processes in China During 1961–2020

The spring sand-dust weather can be disastrous in China. It seriously endangers agricultural production, transportation, air quality, people’s lives and property, and is a subject of sustained and extensive concern. Currently, few studies have been conducted to analyze sand-dust events in North China from the perspective of sand-dust processes. Although there are a few studies on the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of sand-dust processes, they are mainly based on outdated data or case studies of major sand-dust events. In this study, the evolution characteristics of sand-dust processes in China over the last 60 years are studied based on the identification method and several characteristic quantities (including duration and impact range) of sand-dust weather processes defined in the Operational Regulations of Monitoring and Evaluation for Regional Weather and Climate Processes newly issued by the China Meteorological Administration in 2019. First, through statistics, we obtain the annual occurrence frequency, annual days, and the annual number of affected stations of sand-dust processes (including sand-dust storms, blowing sand, and suspended dust) from January 1961 to May 2021. Based on the Mann–Kendall test (MK) and Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD), we analyzed evolution trends and probability distribution characteristics of annual occurrence frequency, annual days, and the annual number of affected stations of sand-dust processes. In addition, we investigate the start time of the first and the last dust processes in each of the past 60 years, as well as the seasonal distribution characteristics of sand-dust processes. The results show that under the background of global warming, the sand-dust weather in China tends to decrease significantly. Specifically, the annual occurrence frequency and annual days showed an upward trend before the 1980s and a significant downward trend after that, as well as the significant turnarounds in the annual number of dust processes that occurred in the 1990s and around 2010. Moreover, the sand-dust processes tend to start later and end earlier. The sand-dust processes are mainly concentrated between March and May, with the highest occurrence probability in April.