High Probability Of Occurrence Research Articles

Spatiotemporal Variation and Causes of Typical Extreme Precipitation Events in Shandong Province over the Last 50 Years

In this study, based on hourly ERA5 reanalysis data from July to September, from 1971 to 2020, for Shandong Province, we used mathematical statistical analysis, the Mann–Kendall nonparametric statistical test, cluster analysis, and other methods to extract and analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics and causes of typical extreme precipitation events. The results indicated the following: (1) The total number and duration of precipitation events show a nonsignificant upward trend, while the average and extreme rainfall intensities show a nonsignificant downward trend. (2) Extreme precipitation events are primarily concentrated in Qingdao, Jinan, Heze, and Binzhou, with fewer events occurring in central Shandong Province. (3) Extreme precipitation events are classified into four types (namely, patterns I, II, III, and IV). Pattern I exhibits two rain peaks, with the primary rain peak occurring after the secondary rain peak. Similarly, pattern II also displays two rain peaks, with equivalent rainfall amounts for both peaks. In contrast, pattern III has multiple, evenly distributed rain peaks. Finally, pattern IV shows a rain peak during the first half of the precipitation event. Pattern I has the highest occurrence probability (46%), while pattern IV has the lowest (7%). (4) The spatial distributions of the different rain patterns are similar, with most being found in the eastern coastal and western regions. (5) Extreme precipitation events result from interactions between large-scale circulation configurations and mesoscale convective systems. The strong blocking situation and significant circulation transport at middle and low latitudes in East Asia, along with strong convergent uplift, abnormally high specific humidity, and high-water-vapor convergence centers, play crucial roles in supporting large-scale circulation systems and triggering mesoscale convective systems.

Continuity with caveats in anesthesia: state and response entropy of the EEG.

The growing use of neuromonitoring in general anesthesia provides detailed insights into the effects of anesthetics on the brain. Our study focuses on the processed EEG indices State Entropy (SE), Response Entropy (RE), and Burst Suppression Ratio (BSR) of the GE EntropyTM Module, which serve as surrogate measures for estimating the level of anesthesia. While retrospectively analyzing SE and RE index values from patient records, we encountered a technical anomaly with a conspicuous distribution of index values. In this single-center, retrospective study, we analyzed processed intraoperative electroencephalographic (EEG) data from 15,608 patients who underwent general anesthesia. We employed various data visualization techniques, including histograms and heat maps, and fitted custom non-Gaussian curves. Individual patients' anesthetic periods were evaluated in detail. To compare distributions, we utilized the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Kullback-Leibler divergence. The analysis also included the influence of the BSR on the distribution of SE and RE values. We identified distinct pillar indicesfor both SE and RE, i.e., index values with a higher probability of occurrence than others. These pillar indexvalues were not age-dependent and followed a non-equidistant distribution pattern. This phenomenon occurs independently of the BSR distribution. SE and RE index values do not adhere to a continuous distribution, instead displaying prominent pillar indiceswith a consistent pattern of occurrence across all age groups. The specific features of the underlying algorithm responsible for this pattern remain elusive.

Effective speech recognition for healthcare industry using phonetic system

<p>The automatic speech recognition helps to achieve today’s demands such as flexibility in patient care, efficiency, medical records. ASR allows more effective use and combination of process management devices and systems. Because speech interaction is contactless, they can be seamlessly combined into a current hardware environment. This paper presents the phonetic system that implemented to improve the automatic speech recognition with higher accuracy for increasing performance. The system obtains input speech by a mic then works on the tried speech to recognize the spoken word. After that, it passes the ensuing text to the HMM classifier. The HMM classifier compares occurrence of the accredited word with probability map. The word with the highest probability of occurrence gets selected. It then substitutes accredited word with this utterance; this process is carried out for the entire accredited text. The phonetic system directly obtains and translates speech to text by providing 8% improvement in the accuracy of the system. Smart text independent multi-lingual SMS system is developed using phonetic system, which allows the user to convert their voice into text and send message. STIM SMS system can offer a very spirited substitute to traditional keyboard.</p>

Deterioration modes, mechanisms, and effects of flexible landfill facilities disposing hazardous waste

Dynamic performance and lifespan predictions are essential for understanding the whole life-cycle emissions and environmental impacts of landfills. However, there are knowledge gaps regarding the major failure modes and mechanisms in flexible hazardous waste landfills (FHWLs) and their potential effects on the service life of landfills. These issues limit the advancement of related research. In this study, focusing on flexible landfills, failure mode, mechanism, and effects analysis was conducted to identify the major failure modes, mechanisms, and impacts that may occur in landfills under extremely harsh chemical and stress conditions. The results indicate that there are approximately 33 major components and materials in landfills, corresponding to 35 potential failure modes and more than 60 underlying failure mechanisms. Notably, the failure of the drainage media in the drainage system is concerning and challenging to recover from. In contrast, the failure of the high-density polyethylene geomembrane (HDPE GMB) in the liner system (LS) is considered serious and is prone to occur, but it is also difficult to detect. Therefore, these two failure modes were identified as critical factors affecting the degradation of the performance and longevity of FHWLs. Finally, due to their high probability of occurrence and severe impacts, stress damage (physical damage) and oxidative aging were identified as the main degradation modes of HDPE GMB, the core material in FHWLs. This study provides key insights into performance prediction targets, failure modes, and failure mechanisms for further research on long-term landfill performance and life prediction. It prompts the government and stakeholders to re-examine the rationality behind the positioning of landfills, such as the assumptions of unlimited service and solid waste management endpoints. Therefore, it calls for a reassessment and optimization of the full life cycle emissions of landfills and related waste.

Risk management in a clinical pathology laboratory: Application of brainstorming and probability analysis for risk reduction

ABSTRACT Introduction: Risk management includes identifying various risks, assessing the probability of occurrence, and evaluating the severity of their consequences. As clinical laboratories are integrally involved in patient care, risks in the laboratories could present grave consequences in some instances. This study aimed to utilize simple techniques for risk management in a clinical laboratory. Materials and Methods: All potential risks in the pathology laboratory of a tertiary-level hospital were identified and classified into natural calamity, environmental, manpower-related, pre-analytical, analytical, post-analytical, and laboratory hazard-related risks through a brainstorming session. The probability of occurrence of each risk was estimated from departmental and hospital records. The possible impact of risk (score 1–10) was categorized into catastrophic, critical, serious, minor negligible, and insignificant. The unweighted risk score was calculated by multiplying the probability of occurrence and impact score. Results: Inadequate sample-to-anticoagulant ratio had the highest probability of occurrence (22.85%), followed by quantity insufficient for analysis (7.30%) and laboratory information system (LIS) breakdown (6.58%). The highest unweighted risk score in our study was inadequate sample-to-anticoagulant ratio (score 91.40), followed by improperly labeled samples (score 35.61), manpower competency issues (score 32.88), sample insufficient for analysis (score 29.20), and LIS breakdown (score 26.30). Conclusion: We found that among all the categories, risks involving the pre-analytical phase had the highest risk scores. The other important risks included manpower competency issues requiring continued on-the-job training of staff as a risk reduction strategy. Brainstorming and probability analysis could be easily used for risk management in a clinical laboratory.

An inter-laboratory comparison between 13 international laboratories for eight components relevant for hydrogen fuel quality assessment

The quality of the hydrogen delivered by refuelling stations is critical for end-users and society. The purity of the hydrogen dispensed at hydrogen refuelling points should comply with the technical specifications included in the ISO 14687:2019 and EN 17124:2022 standards. Once laboratories have set up methods, they need to verify their performances, for example through participation in interlaboratory comparisons. Due to the challenge associated with the production of stable reference materials and transport of these which are produced in hydrogen at high pressure (>10 bar), interlaboratory comparisons have been organized in different steps, with increasing extent.This study describes an inter-laboratory comparison exercise for hydrogen fuel involving a large number of participants (13 laboratories), completed in less than a year and included eight key contaminants of hydrogen fuel at level close to the ISO14687 threshold. These compounds were selected based on their high probability of occurrence or because they have been found in hydrogen fuel samples. For the results of the intercomparison, it appeared that fully complying with ISO 21087:2019 is still challenging for many participants and highlighted the importance of organising these types of exercises. Many laboratories performed corrective actions based on their results, which in turn significantly improved their performances.

Post-earthquake fire resistance of self-centering concrete beam-column joint: An experimental investigation

Fire is an accidental disaster resulting in disastrous consequences for building. Post-earthquake fire is a secondary disaster induced by earthquake, triggering off larger destruction in a higher probability of occurrence. The potential severity of consequences to structures makes fire and post-earthquake fire safety imperative in the design of any new structures. Self-centering concrete joints are introduced as a promoting alternative to traditional reinforced concrete (RC) joints. They always exhibit excellent seismic performance and self-centering capacity, available in high-seismic zone. However, the current lack of experimental data on fire response of self-centering concrete joints means that they remain an open issue in current design codes. In this paper, full-scale quasi-static cyclic test and fire tests were conducted on two self-centering concrete joints connected with bolted angles and posttensioned (PT) tendons. The experiments aimed to explore the performance of self-centering joint in fire situations, and the impact of post-earthquake damages on fire response of self-centering joint. The deformation patterns and thermal responses of self-centering joints including temperature distribution, prestress force of PT tendons, displacements at beam ends and duration were recorded and analyzed. The results show that both self-centering joints exhibited satisfactory fire resistance with endurance over 170 min. Generally, the bolted angles and PT tendons in self-centering concrete joints showed acceptable working performance in fire. The findings unveil the actual response of self-centering concrete joints during the fire and post-earthquake fire conditions, providing experimental data for further numerical simulation and analysis. It can be used to calibrate the design approach for self-centering joints under fire and seismic-induced fire exposure.

Climatic niche modelling and genetic analyses highlight conservation priorities for the Spotted Softshell Turtle (Pelodiscus variegatus)

The Spotted Softshell Turtle (Pelodiscus variegatus) has been recognised since 2019 from Vietnam and Hainan Island, China, but little information about its population status and distribution range is currently available. The species has been provisionally listed as Critically Endangered by the Turtle and Tortoise Working Group, although the status has not been officially accepted by the IUCN, due to the threats the species is facing, including habitat loss and degradation, overexploitation for food, competition with other non-native softshell turtles and pollution. To identify conservation priority sites for P. variegatus in mainland Indochina, this study combines molecular analyses and species distribution modelling. Our results show that, in Vietnam, Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park has the largest suitable area and high probability of species occurrence, followed by Vu Quang National Park and Song Thanh and Ke Go Nature Reserves. In addition, the central provinces, from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue in Vietnam, constitute a key part of the species distribution and should be prioritised for conservation actions. According to the study’s findings, although P. variegatus is possibly found in Laos, the probability decreases sharply at the border between both countries and there is also a gap in the occurrence of wetlands, arguing for strong natural barriers. Unfortunately, to date, only part of the species potential distribution is protected, while no records are known from protected areas, highlighting the need for extended or even new reserves. To recover natural populations of the species and following the IUCN’s One Plan Approach to Conservation, breeding programmes have been established in Vietnam with a potential to expand to other facilities in the country and abroad. Once suitable sites are identified, offspring can be released into the protected areas to improve the current conservation status of this highly-threatened softshell turtle.

Current status and prognosis of Raphidiopsis raciborskii distribution in Bulgaria as part of the southeastern region of Europe

The cyanobacterial species Raphidiopsis raciborskii (Wołoszyńska) Aguilera et al. has a high invasiveness potential, which in less than a century leads to its cosmopolitan spread. In the temperate climate of Europe, R. raciborskii has been reported in many countries, but there is still a lack of detailed information about the current status of its distribution in lakes of Bulgaria, as a part of the southeastern range of its spread in Europe. We investigated the distribution of the species using data on the phytoplankton of 122 lakes surveyed during 13-years period (2009–2022). The species was found in 33 lakes (up to 324 m asl), and 14 new localities were registered during the studied period. The results reveal that the number of lakes with the presence of R. raciborskii (27 % of all research lakes) and its contribution to the total phytoplankton biomass, has increased significantly over the last decade. The species has successfully adapted and dominated the phytoplankton in 9 lakes, forming a bloom in 8 of them. The dominant position of R. raciborskii causes loss of species and functional diversity of phytoplankton and displaces the native bloom-forming cyanobacteria.Lakes with and without the species were compared based on the available data on bioclimatic and local environmental variables. Statistically significant differences were established with respect to water transparency, conductivity, maximum depth and maximum air temperature in the warmest month. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to identify lakes in high risk of future invasion by R. raciborskii. The results of the SDMs implementation confirmed the high maximum air temperature and low water transparency to be important predictors of the occurrence of R. raciborskii in freshwater lakes in Bulgaria. In the areas with high summer temperatures the most suitable for R. raciborskii development were found to be shallow polymictic or medium deep lakes with small surface area and low water transparency. In areas with a suitable climate, the large, deep reservoirs with high transparency as well as macrophyte dominated lakes have a low probability of occurrence of R. raciborskii. Future colonization of lakes above 500 m asl (but most likely below 700 m asl) is also possible, especially in the conditions of global warming. SDMs account for climatic and biogeographic differences of lakes and could help in elucidating the underlying factors that control the occurrence and adaptation of R. raciborskii in a given area.

Distribution modelling of the Caucasian endemic Fritillaria latifolia against the background of climate change

Current climate change, habitat degradation, pastoralism, shoot and bulb harvesting pose serious threats to the rare Caucasian endemic Fritillaria latifolia throughout its range. Knowledge of the limiting factors, species range dynamics in relation to climate change and the role of Protected Areas in species distribution are necessary to develop an effective conservation system at present and in the future. This was aimed (1) to determine the most suitable set of abiotic predictors for modelling Fritillaria latifolia localisation, (2) to formalise environmental and anthropogenic factors in species distribution models, (3) to predict the possible changes in the species range in relation to climatic changes, (4) to identify refugia with a consistently high probability of the species occurrence despite climatic changes. We applied Maxent software for species habitat modelling to build current and climatic models of the Fritillaria latifolia distribution, considering the abiotic variables and anthropogenic predictors such as the distance to Protected Areas and grasslands. Distances to anthropogenic infrastructure were calculated with the Path Distance measure considering the horizontal straight-line distance, surface distance and vertical factor. We also formalised the area accessibility (movement factor) through the distance to optimal sites (plots with 0.8 threshold of habitat suitability), where the probability of species occurrence was higher than 0.5. The most important abiotic variables in the species distribution were the Emberger's pluviothermic quotient, with optimal values corresponding to humid and perhumid climates, and the terrain roughness index, with optimal values ranging from nearly level (81–116) to intermediately rugged (162–239) slopes. Distance to Protected Areas (0–1 km) was the third important predictor of the Fritillaria latifolia current distribution, while the distance to grasslands contributed less to the model. The distance of suitable areas from optimal habitats (area accessibility) was 15 km. The species current core ranges are localised in the Western and Central Caucasus, Western and Central Transcaucasia, and the northwestern ridges of the Lesser Caucasus within a network of Protected Areas covering most of the highlands. The optimistic socio-economic pathway SSP1-2.6 predicted a 1.6-fold decrease in the area of species optimal habitats from 2021 to 2100. The pessimistic SSP5-8.5 scenario predicted 122-fold habitat area reduction. According to SSP1-2.6 climatic models, by 2100 the refugia area would be 172.4 km2 in the highlands of the western and central parts of the Greater Caucasus, including the Caucasus State Nature Reserve and Teberda National Park. These areas should be prioritised for the conservation of Fritillaria latifolia populations.

Characterization of white matter lesions in multiple sclerosis using proton density and T1-relaxation measures

PurposeAlthough lesion dissemination in time is a defining characteristic of multiple sclerosis (MS), there is a limited understanding of lesion heterogeneity. Currently, conventional sequences such as fluid attenuated inversion recovery (FLAIR) and T1-weighted (T1W) data are used to assess MS lesions qualitatively. Estimating water content could provide a measure of local tissue rarefaction, or reduced tissue density, resulting from chronic inflammation. Our goal was to utilize the proton spin density (PD), derived from a rapid, multi-contrast STAGE (strategically acquired gradient echo) protocol to characterize white matter (WM) lesions seen on T2W, FLAIR and T1W data. Materials and methodsTwenty (20) subjects with relapsing-remitting MS were scanned at 3 T using T1W, T2-weighted, FLAIR and strategically acquired gradient echo (STAGE) sequences. PD and T1 maps were derived from the STAGE data. Disease severity scores, including Extended Disability Status Scale (EDSS) and Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC), were correlated with total, high PD and high T1 lesion volumes. A probability map of high PD regions and all lesions across all subjects was generated. Five perilesional normal appearing WM (NAWM) bands surrounding the lesions were generated to compare the median PD and T1 values in each band with the lesional values and the global WM. ResultsT1W intensity was negatively correlated with PD as expected (R = −0.87, p < 0.01, R2 = 0.756) and the FLAIR signal was suppressed for high PD volumes within the lesions, roughly for PD ≥ 0.85. The threshold for high PD and T1 regions was set to 0.909 and 1953.6 ms, respectively. High PD regions showed a high probability of occurrence near the boundary of the lateral ventricles. EDSS score and nine-hole peg test (dominant and non-dominant hand) were significantly correlated with the total lesion volume and the volumes of high PD and T1 regions (p < 0.05). There was a significant difference in PD/T1 values between the high PD/T1 regions within the lesions and the remaining lesional tissue (p < 0.001). In addition, the PD values of the first NAWM perilesional band directly adjacent to the lesional boundary displayed a significant difference (p < 0.05) compared to the global WM. ConclusionLesions with high PD and T1s had the highest probability of occurrence at the boundary of the lateral ventricles and likely represent chronic lesions with significant local tissue rarefaction. Moreover, the perilesional NAWM exhibited subtly increasing PD and T1 values from the NAWM up to the lesion boundary. Unlike on the T1 maps, the perilesional band adjacent to the lesion boundary possessed a significantly higher PD value than the global WM PD values. This shows that PD maps were sensitive to the subtle changes in NAWM surrounding the lesions.

High frequency of germline recombination in Nestin-Cre transgenic mice crossed with Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor floxed mice.

The Cre-loxP strategy for tissue-specific gene inactivation has become a widely employed tool in several research studies. Conversely, inadequate breeding and genotyping without considering the potential for non-specific Cre-recombinase expression may lead to misinterpretations of results. Nestin-Cre transgenic mice, widely used for the selective deletion of genes in neurons, have been observed to have an incidence of Cre-line germline recombination. In this study, we attempted to generate neuron-specific Glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor (Glp1r) knock-out mice by crossing mice harboring the Nestin-Cre transgene with mice harboring the Glp1r gene modified with loxP insertion, in order to elucidate the role of Glp1r signaling in the nervous system. Surprisingly, during this breeding process, we discovered that the null allele emerged in the offspring irrespective of the presence or absence of the Nestin-Cre transgene, with a high probability of occurrence (93.6%). To elucidate the cause of this null allele, we conducted breeding experiments between mice carrying the heterozygous Glp1r null allele but lacking the Nestin-Cre transgene. We confirmed that the null allele was inherited by the offspring independently of the Nestin-Cre transgene. Furthermore, we assessed the gene expression, protein expression, and phenotype of mice carrying the homozygous Glp1r null allele generated from the aforementioned breeding, thereby confirming that the null allele indeed caused a global knock-out of Glp1r. These findings suggest that the null allele in the NestinCre-Glp1r floxed breeding arose due to germline recombination. Moreover, we demonstrated the possibility that germline recombination may occur not only during the spermatogenesis at testis but also during epididymal sperm maturation. The striking frequency of germline recombination in the Nestin-Cre driver underscores the necessity for caution when implementing precise breeding strategies and employing suitable genotyping methods.

Risk Management Practices in Ethiopian Somali Regional State Construction Projects

Risk management practices are critical for construction companies to prevent any problems caused by uncertainties in the projects. This study examines how risk management is practiced in construction projects of the Somali Regional State in Ethiopia. It also identifies the most influential risk factors in the region which need to be given a higher consideration when practicing risk management. Within this context, a questionnaire survey was conducted among construction professionals in the Somali region. Based on the findings, there is a deficient practice of risk management in Somali Regional State construction projects due to a lack of knowledge or budget. Risk factors like design errors, top management changes, insufficient experienced staff, and delays in payment are found to have the highest probability of occurrence in Somali Regional State construction projects. Findings from this study can help construction managers to better understand the risk factors influencing construction projects in the Somali region in the context of improving project performance.

Intonation processing of interrogative words in Mandarin: an event-related potential study.

Intonation is the variation in pitch used in speech, which forms the premise of tonal and non-tonal languages. Interrogative words are words that introduce questions. Previous research lacks clarity regarding the specific cues used in the processing of word intonation. To address this gap, this study used the event-related potential electroencephalogram (EEG) research method to explore the intonation processing of tone two (mid-rising) interrogative words in Mandarin. For this, the word "shui," meaning "who," was selected as the experimental material. To avoid the influence of the environment, gender, and semantics, the Hum version, corresponding to the stimulus material, was also adopted for the experiment. This study used a passive oddball paradigm to examine the clues of intonation information processing in automatic cognitive processing through amplitude, latency, time window, and evoked location potential mismatch negativity. The standard stimulus was the declarative intonation with a high probability of occurrence (90%), and the deviant stimulus was the interrogative intonation with a low probability of occurrence (10%). In the time window of 370-450 ms, the mismatch negativity was found at the F3, F4, C3, Cz, and C4 channels. The findings show that, in the passive oddball paradigm, lexical semantics are essential for intonation processing at the pre-attentive level, which is dominated by the frontal and central areas of the brain. The results support the functional and comprehensive hypotheses that the processing of intonation is based on the function of language and that bilateral regions are involved in this processing. This study makes an important contribution by providing event-related potential evidence that lexical semantics plays a key role in the pre-attentive processing of intonation, as shown by the significant differences between semantic and non-semantic conditions.

A rotary trans-osseous ultrasound blood flow detection method for endoscopic application

Due to the small size and proximity to the spinal cord and vertebral artery, the cervical pedicle screw fixation procedure remains to be challenging in clinical practice. The screw misplacement has a high probability of occurrence of severe complications. How to prevent direct injury to the vertebral artery is a vital study focus in cervical spine surgery. In this work, a trans-osseous ultrasound Doppler method is proposed to explore the possibility of detecting blood flow through thin cortical bone. A miniature single-element prototype probe with a center frequency of 2.5 MHz is prepared. With the classical pulse-echo acquisition, a Spectral Power Index (SPI) algorithm based on Spectral Doppler and sliding window traversal is designed to enhance the Doppler signal intensity. In vitro and in vivo experiments were conducted to investigate the feasibility of this method. The results of in vitro experiments suggest that the anticoagulated bovine blood flowing at a mean velocity of 15 cm/s to 80 cm/s is detectable when the thickness of cortical bone is 0.7 ± 0.1 mm. The in vivo experiment showed that the large blood vessel with a diameter of about 3 mm (radial artery) can be detected through thin cortical bone (thickness of 0.7 ± 0.1 mm). The proposed trans-osseous Doppler method achieves artery detection through thin cortical bone, which has demonstrated the possibility of intraoperative vessel pre-warning. The present study poses a promising strategy to reduce the risk of vertebral artery injury and misalignment rate in the cervical pedicle screw insertion procedure.

A Wind Power Scenario Generation Method Based on Copula Functions and Forecast Errors

The scenario of renewable energy generation significantly affects the probabilistic distribution system analysis. To reflect the probabilistic characteristics of actual data, this paper proposed a scenario generation method that can reflect the spatiotemporal characteristics of wind power generation and the probabilistic characteristics of forecast errors. The scenario generation method consists of a process of sampling random numbers and a process of inverse sampling using the cumulative distribution function. In sampling random numbers, random numbers that mimic the spatiotemporal correlation of power generation were generated using the copula function. Furthermore, the cumulative distribution functions of forecast errors according to power generation bins were used, thereby reflecting the probabilistic characteristics of forecast errors. The wind power generation scenarios in Jeju Island, generated by the proposed method, were analyzed through various indices that can assess accuracy. As a result, it was confirmed that by using the proposed scenario generation method, scenarios similar to actual data can be generated, which in turn allows for preparation of situations with a high probability of occurrence within the distribution system.

Analysis of accident risk factors in chemical industry based on ISM-BN

The chemical industry involves the production, storage, and use of many flammable, explosive, toxic, and other hazardous chemicals. Once an accident occurs, it will cause serious harm to human and economic activities. In order to prevent chemical accidents, this paper combines Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) and Bayesian network (BN) to quantitatively study the relationship and interaction strength among accident risk factors in chemical industry. Through the analysis of accident cases and questionnaire survey, 21 accident risk factors in chemical industry are selected. According to the decision of experts, the influence relationship between risk factors is determined, and a multi-level directed graph of ISM is obtained. And the ISM model is transformed into a quantitative BN model. The BN model is applied to forward reasoning, sensitivity analysis, and reverse reasoning. The results indicate that there is a positive correlation between various risk factors and chemical accidents, and the supervision mechanism has the highest probability of occurrence in production activities. Illegal operation has the highest sensitivity and the greatest impact on chemical accidents. Inherent hazards of materials and products is the most likely cause of accidents. Based on the research results, feasible measures have been proposed to improve safety management in the chemical industry.

Spatial heterogeneity facilitates coexistence between striped hyaenas and sympatric carnivores

AbstractAimInterspecific competition plays a key role in shaping carnivore communities. Top‐down effects can impact the coexistence of superordinate and subordinate competitors and prey across a shared landscape. Limited resources, their abundance and diminishing habitats can all exacerbate interspecific competition. Sometimes, behavioural mechanisms or adaptations are critical for subordinate carnivores to coexist with larger species. Here, we investigated the distribution pattern of the striped hyaena (Hyaena hyaena) population with respect to habitat features, sympatric carnivores and their prey species across a large landscape.LocationWestern and Eastern Ghats, India.TaxonStriped hyaena.MethodsWe collected presence–absence data for hyaenas, tigers, leopards, dholes and their prey using camera‐trapping and indirect sign surveys. Using a random forest algorithm, we modelled the local distribution of hyaenas as a function of important ecological variables, including climate, domestic prey abundance and the predicted probabilities of occurrence of other large carnivores and their prey.ResultsWe found that striped hyaenas were confined to relatively small, discrete areas compared to the three other predators, likely a mechanism for achieving coexistence in the landscape. Our empirical results suggested that hyaenas tend to avoid high occurrence probability areas of their co‐predators at a landscape level but foothold opportunities such as, arid climatic conditions, and prey abundance primarily determined spatial incumbency. Coexistence in an area with low to medium relative abundance of co‐predators offsets the interplay between carcass acquisition and risk associated. The coexistence of species was favoured by altitudinal heterogeneity probably providing denning refugia and also by their preference towards suboptimal thorn forests that sustain a low density of co‐predators.Main ConclusionsOur study showed a desisting impact of large predators on the distribution of the striped hyaena population. Furthermore, we suggest preventing habitat alteration in suboptimal habitats of large carnivores to facilitate coexistence in a shared landscape.

Spark discharges at the interface of water and heptane: emulsification and effect on discharge probability

Spark discharges in liquid have shown great potential for use in numerous applications, such as pollutant degradation, precision micromachining, and nanomaterials production. Herein, spark discharges are initiated at the interface of two immiscible liquids, heptane and water. This leads to the formation of an emulsion via mechanisms akin to bubble dynamics and instabilities at the gas–liquid. At high discharge number, an additional mechanism contributes to emulsion formation, resulting in an increase in the number of smaller heptane droplets in water. Analyses of the current–voltage characteristics show that high probability of discharge occurrence is obtained when the electrodes are aligned with the interface. This result is correlated with the low erosion rate of the electrodes. In the case of discharges at the interface, we observed that beyond a certain number of discharges, the breakdown voltage drops; far from the interface, it increases with the discharge number. Based on 2D simulation with a Monte Carlo approach to consider various droplet distribution in water, the electric field distribution is determined. The results support the fact that the decrease in breakdown voltage may be attributed to the intensification of the E-field in water close the heptane droplet. Therefore, spark discharges generated at the interface of a heptane/water system produce an emulsion of heptane in water, which facilitates the occurrence of subsequent discharges by intensifying the electric field and reducing the breakdown voltage.

RISK OF DEVELOPER INVESTMENTS ON THE CZĘSTOCHOWA HOUSING – PROPERTY MARKET

The aim of the article was to identify the risk accompanying investments carried out on the housing- property market in Częstochowa. The study was conducted using the diagnostic survey method and the questionnaire technique, while the research tool was a questionnaire. Risks with a high probability of occurrence and at the same time with very severe consequences for the implementation of development investments turned out to be the following risks: risk related to the economic situation of the country, force majeure risk, risk of overestimation or underestimation of costs, as well as the risk of an increase in the prices of production factors.