High Oil Prices Research Articles

Changes in Bitcoin Prices under the Uncertain Market: An Analysis Based on Time Series Model

Today's society is full of uncertainty, especially during the outbreak of the Russian Ukrainian Conflict, oil prices have changed. This paper uses VAR model and ARMA-GARCHX model to figure out if the high price of oil due to the conflicts between Russia and Ukraine will lead to changes in the price of Bitcoin. Through the use of STATA, it is concluded that in an uncertain market, the price of Bitcoin will be affected by the rise in oil prices. This paper combines the Russian Ukrainian conflict, oil price and Bitcoin price, and uses relevant data to fill in the relevant theories of the impact of the Russian Ukrainian conflict. Therefore, in the process of consumer investment, investors should not only pay attention to the benefits of Bitcoin, but also pay attention to many shortcomings of this emerging virtual currency. Besides, supervisors should improve the stability in the Bitcoin market.

Sosialisasi Pengaplikasi Centrifugal Force Dalam Memproduksi Minyak Kelapa Murni

Cooking oil is one of the staple ingredients that is widely used in household and industrial needs. The high price of cooking oil has an impact on the food security of a family. Repeated use of cooking oil will also have an impact on family health. So it is necessary to socialize the healthy and quality cooking oil using virgin coconut oil. The purpose of this socialization was directed to the group of housewives in Pumo Village, Wuluhan District, Jember Regency. The economic condition of this housewife is classified as lower middle class. The Pumo Village Housewives Group (partner) is located in a coastal area with extraordinary coconut potential. Utilization of coconut is only limited to being sold in the form of coconuts, either young (degan) or old (copra). Though the potential will be greater if the processing is carried out, especially in the form of pure coconut oil. The solution offered to this problem is the application of science and technology with simple technology, namely centrifugal force as an effort to become independent partners in producing virgin coconut oil. The virgin coconut oil produced is not only to support family food security, but also to be a business opportunity for partners. The results of this service, the community can know the techniques of making, packaging products and entrepreneurship in the field of making virgin coconut oil.

The rise of green energy metal: Could lithium threaten the status of oil?

Exploring the connectedness and time-varying attributes of conventional and new energy markets is crucial to the green-oriented transition of energy. This investigation performs bootstrap full-and sub-sample techniques to explore the correlation between the oil and lithium markets, and further probe whether lithium could threaten the status of oil. The empirical outcomes reveal that oil price (OP) exerts positive influences on lithium price (LP). High OP increases the lithium demand and its price through taking new energy vehicles as substitutes for conventional automobiles, indicating that lithium may threaten the status of oil under the oil bull market. But the above opinion could not be supported under the oil bear market, low OP lessens the attraction of new energy vehicles and then reduces lithium demand and LP. In turn, low LP negatively affects OP since oil is also a vital engine for economic development. Thus, these outcomes are consistent with the price correlation model, and lithium can only partially replace oil as a vehicle fuel under certain situations, the latter's status could not be threatened completely. Against a backdrop of urgent green transition and potential oil and lithium bubbles, these conclusions bring meaningful inspirations to the public, enterprises and countries.

Income, coal consumption, and the environmental Kuznets curve in Vietnam.

Concerns over adverse environmental effects have been raised due to Vietnam's reliance on fossil fuels like coal. At the same time, efforts are being made to boost the usage of renewable energy while simultaneously lowering greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines whether there is an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) relationship between gross domestic product (GDP) and coal consumption in Vietnam by controlling for renewable energy consumption and oil prices from 1984 to 2021. We adopt the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework to explore a long-run level relationship between the study variables. We find that the GDP elasticity of coal demand has been greater than one since the 1990s and about 3.5 in recent years, indicating that the coal intensity of GDP has increased with economic growth. Thus, the GDP-coal consumption relationship resembles an upward-sloping curve instead of an inverted U-shaped EKC. This relationship is robust when we use other estimation methods and account for two additional independent variables. While a 1% rise in renewable energy consumption results in a 0.4% reduction in coal consumption, the impact of oil prices on coal consumption is negative but insignificant. The findings allow us to provide policy implications for the sustainable development of Vietnam: (1) more stringent policies, for example, enacting a carbon pricing scheme, are needed to reduce coal consumption; (2) policies should be implemented to make renewable energy sources more affordable; and (3) as facing high oil prices, the country should diversify its energy mix by expanding the usage of renewable energy.

Supervised deep learning-based paradigm to screen the enhanced oil recovery scenarios

High oil prices and concern about limited oil reserves lead to increase interest in enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Selecting the most efficient development plan is of high interest to optimize economic cost. Hence, the main objective of this study is to construct a novel deep-learning classifier to select the best EOR method based on the reservoir’s rock and fluid properties (depth, porosity, permeability, gravity, viscosity), and temperature. Our deep learning-based classifier consists of a one-dimensional (1D) convolutional neural network, long short-term memory (LSTM), and densely connected neural network layers. The genetic algorithm has been applied to tune the hyperparameters of this hybrid classifier. The proposed classifier is developed and tested using 735 EOR projects on sandstone, unconsolidated sandstone, carbonate, and conglomerate reservoirs in more than 17 countries. Both the numerical and graphical investigations approve that the structure-tuned deep learning classifier is a reliable tool to screen the EOR scenarios and select the best one. The designed model correctly classifies training, validation, and testing examples with an accuracy of 96.82%, 84.31%, and 82.61%, respectively. It means that only 30 out of 735 available EOR projects are incorrectly identified by the proposed deep learning classifier. The model also demonstrates a small categorical cross-entropy of 0.1548 for the classification of the involved enhanced oil recovery techniques. Such a powerful classifier is required to select the most suitable EOR candidate for a given oil reservoir with limited field information.

Wars, cartels and COVID-19: regime switching in commodity prices

ABSTRACT Commodity prices are extremely volatile, and volatility itself fluctuates over time. Using data from 1959 to 2022, we estimate a 3-state Markov-switching model to identify expansions and contractions in oil and copper price volatility. We found a transition from a low to a medium variance regime for the oil price, in 1979, reflecting changes in the oil market structure. In addition, we identify infrequent and short-lived episodes of unusually high oil price volatility. For copper, there is no transition across regimes, and episodes of high volatility are not synchronized with the periods of high volatility in oil prices. We found that oil prices are much more volatile than copper prices in all states. Oil prices react more strongly to market cartelization, war episodes, and global demand shifts, like the 2008 Great Recession and the COVID-19.

Impact of crude prices shock on GDP growth: using a linear, nonlinear and extreme value framework

PurposeRising crude oil prices are likely to have an asymmetric and nonlinear negative impact on GDP growth. The purpose of this paper is to ask the following questions: Does the effect of a crude price shock depend on the position of crude price cycle, i.e. is the effect of price shock larger/smaller in periods of already elevated crude price? And, does the effect of crude price shock depend on the position of the economy in the business cycle, i.e. does the crude price shock affect growth differentially in periods of low/high growth?Design/methodology/approachThe authors use a local linear projection (LLP) model to examine the asymmetric impact of crude price on GDP growth in an environment of high crude price. Next, a quantile regression model is used to account for differential impact on growth around high and low growth periods.FindingsResults from the LLP model show that when oil price is above $70, each additional percentage point of increase in oil price results in a 20 basis point (bps) drop in quarterly GDP growth rate on average. The impact is felt between the third and sixth quarters. When oil prices rise above $80, the impact is similar, with a sharper drop in growth (30 bps). The exercise with quantile regression shows that the impact of an increase in crude prices on growth is almost double at lowest quantiles of growth compared with the median.Originality/valueThere is a growing literature that evaluates the impact of oil price in developing economies. However, nonlinearities in crude price-GDP growth dynamics have not received enough attention, especially during phases of elevated crude price or a growth downcycle. The authors believe that accounting for such effects is especially relevant in the present economic scenario of high oil prices because of geopolitical crises and a period of vulnerable growth because of supply chain issues arising out of the pandemic. Using recent data from oil-importing emerging market economies such as India, this paper fills a crucial gap in the literature.

US Petroleum Engineering Graduation Rates Keep Falling, but Oil Execs Are Not Complaining Yet

The job market is looking up for petroleum engineers graduating this spring. With oil prices up, companies are hiring, which means most of the shrinking number of graduates have already lined up jobs, according to Lloyd Heinze, a professor at Texas Tech University, who does an annual survey of petroleum engineering (PE) programs. At Texas Tech, he said more than 90% of the students already have jobs upon graduation, with most of them going to work for operators. Demand is also strong for graduates at Colorado School of Mines, Penn State University, and Texas A&M University, where most of the seniors have jobs arranged in advance of graduation. Tom Blasingame, a petroleum engineering professor at Texas A&M, and 2021 SPE president, said the career fair held last fall “was very well attended, and I believe our placement percentage will be very high in 2023.” He said 80% of students who graduated from A&M in December had jobs lined up, and he expected they would all have jobs within 2–3 months of graduation. Jennifer Miskimins, a professor who is head of the petroleum engineering department at Mines, agreed that the hiring rate is at that level, with some students getting job offers after completing summer internships. Sanjay Srinivasan, department head at the Energy and Mineral Engineering Department at Penn State, said hiring demand “looks much better this year than last year. However, we are concerned that many of the oil and gas companies that come on recruitment visits seem more interested in talking to graduates from other departments like mechanical and chemical engineering.” Others are seeing the same trend. “The supermajors will take the engineers and train/mold them into whatever they need,” Miskimins said. Blasingame added that independent operators, however, focus on petroleum engineers because they “don’t have extensive training programs like supermajors, so they hire the people who can ‘work on day 1.’ ” Also, Srinivasan said companies are increasingly selective. “I feel that the companies have lean recruitment targets and so they basically shop for the best-fit graduates from multiple schools,” he said. It is a striking turnaround from a few years ago when record numbers of students flooded a weak job market, looking for any oil industry job they could find or looking outside the industry to companies that valued their math and science skills. Still, given the high price of oil, hiring demand that is equal to a shrinking supply feels odd to Heinze and the others. Based on their experience, when oil prices hit $100/bbl, the demand for PE grads and enrollment go up. Something Heinze finds “spooky” this time around is that oil companies are not complaining about the small size of the graduating classes. It feels odd to Heinze because in the past when prices were high and activity picked up, college administrators heard complaints from oil companies such as “How many (seniors) do you have?” and “We need more.” “We are seeing the same, very good placement. However, I have had companies tell me that they aren’t making their hiring goals,” Miskimins said. She is not hearing complaints about the graduation rate “but definitely concerns.” To address the problem, Mines has hired a direct recruiter as part of an effort to attract more earth sciences students, Miskimins said.

Angola

Angola achieved macroeconomic stabilization amid a very difficult environment in 2020 and growth began to recover in 2021. The recovery picked up pace in 2022, aided by high oil prices. President João Lourenço was reelected in August 2022. Angola continues to face significant challenges, including debt vulnerabilities and the need to diversify the economy as oil production declines over the long term. The authorities’ reform agenda, including their upcoming 2023–27 National Development Plan, is focused on these challenges.

Cameroon

Cameroon, a fragile and conflict affected state, proved resilient to the COVID- 19 shock but is now facing increased challenges in an uncertain global environment. The recovery, which was supported by higher oil prices and non-oil production in 2021, continued in 2022, against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, supply chain disruptions, and tight global financial conditions. Cameroon has successfully completed two reviews since the approval in July 2021 of the three-year arrangements under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for SDR 483 million (about US$689.5 million, or 175 percent of quota). Completion of the third review will allow the total disbursement of SDR 55.2 million (about US$73.3 million).

Reviewing the Impact of Liquidity on Real Estate: An International Comparative Study

After battling significant losses due to the global financial crisis of 2008 and the COVID-19 pandemic, the UAE real estate market has seen new highs in 2021 and 2022. The uptrend of this sector is likely to continue into the next few years, with the money of foreign investors pouring in and the persistent increase in oil prices. Innovative policies and initiatives have made the UAE a haven for investors while Europe and some other countries deal with a liquidity crunch. As per our observations, property purchase in the UAE seems to be a very sound long-term investment, which is probably one of the safest in the uncertain world we are living in today. This paper aims to study how liquidity affects the performance of the real estate market in the UAE and other countries. The findings reveal that the UAE is an ideal real estate investment destination in times when many countries are facing tightening financial conditions, with some on the brink of deep economic crisis. UAE Government policies like the Golden Visa Scheme and zero property taxation welcome more expats to invest in UAE properties and settle in the country. Foreigners are attracted by the country’s sound capital markets, excellent infrastructure, economic stability, and perceived absence of systemic corruption. The credit fundamentals of UAE banks are strong for the coming years, with high oil prices supporting liquidity. The findings also suggest that Dubai real estate will continue to thrive despite the fear of global recession. However, investors should be prepared for a possible increase in property prices and annual rents in the coming years as the UAE real estate market continues its upward trajectory in line with the rising oil prices and foreign direct investments.

Oil Money: Middle East Petrodollars and the Transformation of U.S. Empire, 1967–1988

In the 1970s, high oil prices brought a surge of revenues to a handful of countries in the Middle East and North Africa. U.S. leaders worried about the “petrodollar problem”: Could the global financial system handle the strain? And as oil producers became stronger, would the United States lose its influence in the Middle East and its privileged position in the world economy? David M. Wight argues that the petrodollar boom only reinforced American power. The United States enjoyed close ties with the main oil exporters, especially Iran and Saudi Arabia. Together, they created what Wight, following Paul A. Kramer, calls an American-led “international empire” in the Middle East (p. 4). The wealthy Persian Gulf states spent billions of dollars on American goods, especially weapons, and invested billions more in U.S. financial markets. Other regimes such as Ba'athist Iraq, less friendly to Washington, still did business with the United States. The appeal of U.S. technology and financial markets often proved stronger than disputes over Israel and imperialism. As a result, Wight concludes that “the United States was the biggest winner to come out of the petrodollar economy” (p. 277). The petrodollar boom also served American political goals. It strengthened U.S. partners at the expense of oil-poor Soviet clients, while Saudi financial aid helped recruit other Arab states such as Egypt into the American sphere of influence.

The Impact of the Drastic Increase in Fuel Oil (Bbm) Prices

Fuel Oil (BBM) is a commodity that plays a vital role in all economic activities. The direct impact of this change in oil prices is a change in operating costs that results in the level of profit of direct investment activities occurring. In simple terms, the purpose of investing is to maximize prosperity through the maximization of profits, and investors always try to invest in efficient and safe investments. The increase in fuel prices not only increases the burden on small communities in general but also for the business world in particular. The surge in the price of Mintak Fuel (BBM) is considered to have a real effect on economic conditions in Indonesia. High oil prices turned out to be unfavorable to the economy of any country in Asia, including Indonesia. The increase in fuel prices in Indonesia is not only caused by the high increase in world oil prices, but also due to the domestic undersupply when compared to its demand. The amount of fuel subsidies such as in Indonesia, which can drain the state budget, is also considered as an excuse for the government to increase fuel prices in the country. The impact on various industrial sectors can lead to high production and operating costs. Moreover, of course, this increase in fuel prices will also have exponential implications for Indonesia's macroeconomic fundamentals.

Nigeria

Economic recovery continued to broaden in 2022. Higher oil prices are yet to deliver tangible benefits amid contraction of oil production and costly fuel subsidies. Elevated inflation and lingering external sector pressures, if left unaddressed, may exacerbate macroeconomic instability. This could impact growth, food security and ultimately social cohesion given extreme inequality and high poverty. The upcoming elections provide an opportunity for the new administration to advance structural reforms and offer a more prosperous future.

<p>Investigate the Effect Oil Price Volatility for The Period (2010 -2020) on the Economic Situation Based ARDL Approach</p>

In this study , governments in oil-producing countries rely heavily on oil income to fund their budgets and exert political influence. Increases in government expenditure are a direct result of a surplus of funds, as would be expected from standard economic theory. This is precisely why Extremely high oil prices in 2010and 2020 caused tremendous budgets in the Iraqi economy. Investment, which would have been the primary beneficiary of the government expenditure process, was ignored. They missed a chance to diversify their economies and industries by concentrating solely on leisure and consumption. The progress of the Iraqi economy is unimpeded by a shortage of resources or money. Oil earnings and governmental spending are the primary factors studied due to their close relationship. The sample size was organized , and the data collected was quarterly, which is more timely than annual data. Keeping an eye on it all the way from 2010 till 2020. A quiet test was performed on the series to see if those two factors were present, and the results showed that they were not. As soon as they take the first difference and the graph examination, they find their footing and are able to continue on with the rest of the exams with ease. The right model was chosen, and an autoregressive distributed-lag (ARDL) technique was used..

Central African Economic and Monetary Community

CEMAC is broadly benefiting from the positive terms of trade shock amidst the fallout from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Post-pandemic economic recovery is taking hold, albeit slowly, supported by high oil prices and the lifting of COVID-19 containment measures. External reserves have started to build up, though still short of the desired level, owing in part to costly untargeted energy and food subsidies. Global inflation pressures have passed through to domestic prices, putting pressure on real incomes. Rebuilding buffers and sustaining a recovery that protects the most vulnerable will require stricter adherence to budget and reform plans consistent with Fund-supported programs and policy advice; this will ensure that part of the oil windfall is saved. Implementation of these policies in current favorable conditions is critical to strengthening resilience in the face of rising risks, including most notably to food security, debt vulnerabilities, and tightening of global financial conditions.

Statistical Modeling of the Determinants Driving the Electricity Demand in Jordan

The paper introduces a statistical model that connects the electrical demand in Jordan with several determinants that have a direct impact on the electrical consumption and load profile during the study period from 2007 to 2020. The period was selected as it is characterized by several global events that directly impacted Jordan’s economy and energy sustainability in Jordan, such as the Arab spring protests, the civil war in Syria, and the global financial crises. Many determinants that are used in the regression analysis imply the ambient temperature, day of the week, population, gross domestic product (GDP), oil price, and technological factors related to renewable energy projects. Results show that temperature and population positively impact the demand, whereas GPD, population, oil prices, and renewable energy negatively impact the electricity demand. The results obtained from backcasting regression analysis for the hourly 4745 data set covering 13 years period reveals reasonable error metrics with MAE, MAPE, and RMSE values of 134, 6.3% and 2.76%, respectively. The government must encourage investments to exploit and explore the massive potential of available energy resources such as oil, natural gas, oil shale, and uranium to resolve the problems related to the high global oil prices and high dependency on imported energy. Also, it is required to enable the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy through financial incentives and tax exemption to encourage investments in clean energy, rebuild a new traffic system showing the volatile electricity prices, which are still unknown and finally remove obstacles and facilitate the ongoing projects, reaching a state of stakeholder buy-in engaging with the projects.

Technology Focus: Mature Fields and Well Revitalization (January 2023)

Capitalizing on untapped potential and quantifying risk is the key to success in a turbulent commodity industry. Mature fields have seen it all. Periods of high oil price have invited increased investment and pushed boundaries, while low-oil-price periods have had a severe effect on the fields’ sustainability and development. Mature fields have existed through a time of great technological change and stand on the cusp of their ultimate fate—either to maximize recovery with the lowest possible expenditures amid tightening environmental regulations or to close the taps and prepare for painful abandonments. In a capital-intensive industry, mistakes often are unforgiving and the costs of uncertainty and error are great. Fluctuating technological, political, and business influences add to the volatility and risk in selecting the next big idea for mature fields. The framework and success of future opportunities is reliant on the data used to quantify them, and this is something of which all mature fields have plenty. As they have delivered value throughout their life, the uncertainty associated with them reduces, and the new ideas discussed here come to light. Alternative use of wells for geothermal energy generation, carbon sequestration in depleted reservoirs, and the use of machine learning to maximize recovery are solutions that provide insight into how diverse the scope of mature field rejuvenation ideas can be. These solutions have something in common, however; they aim to capitalize on data, modularize problems, and structure a sustainable solution. These solutions are scalable, upgradable, and, most importantly, cost-effective for large and small operators. The upstream sector has long valued efficiency and accuracy. Small improvements in mature fields can make a significant economic difference with an established infrastructure in place. Value in large mature fields still exists, but one has to know where to look and what lenses to use. Recommended additional reading at OnePetro: www.onepetro.org. IPTC 21436 Permeability Prediction Using Rock Typing, Flow-Zone Indicator, and Machine-Learning Techniques in a Brownfield Offshore Malaysia by Budi Priyatna Kantaatmadja, Petronas, et al. SPE 208204 Generating Value From Mature Gas Fields by Quantifying Well-Integrity Assurance With a Critical Analysis of Multiple Logs and Retrieved Tubular Surface Inspection by Christna Golaco, Sharjah National Oil Corporation, et al. SPE 209988 Successful Reservoir Management and Optimization of Mature Steamflood Projects Using Artificial Intelligence by Andrei Popa, Chevron, et al.

The boundary dispute between Canada and the U.S. in the Beaufort Sea: problems of regulation

The dispute between Canada and the United States on the line of demarcation of the water area and the continental shelf in the Beaufort Sea has been ongoing since the mid-1970s. Canada proposes to draw this line along the 141st meridian of the west longitude, and the United States - on the equidistance principle. In the 2000s the subject of the dispute expanded to include also the demarcation of the extended continental shelf of the two countries in the Arctic. Against the backdrop of extremely high oil prices in the late 2000s – mid 2010s attempts by the two countries to resolve this dispute intensified, but the subsequent fall in oil prices reduced the interest of Canada and the United States in resolving this dispute.

Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa

Objective – The aim of this paper is to examine the relationship between the CPI, the brent crude oil price, and the PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate during the past year. The study used South Africa as a proxy for developed countries. The objective is, therefore, to evaluate the effects of the increase in commodity prices on inflation and other macroeconomic variables. Methodology –The study utilised a quantitative methodological approach through the assessment of an econometric model that employed monthly data from January 2017 to May 2022. The paper utilized variables such as CPI, brent crude oil prices, PPI for final manufactured goods as well as the Rand/Dollar exchange rate. Findings – Short- and long-run relationships were established between the variables using the vector error correction model (VECM) and the Johansen co-integration equation methods. The long-run conclusions showed that high brent crude oil prices, high sunflower oil, a depreciating exchange rate and increasingly high PPI levels will lead to an increase in the CPI (Inflation). The results also indicated that oil prices still influence the basic prices of goods and services since all things need to be transported. Novelty – The results of the study showed that a perpetual international and national macro-economic environment is crucial to prevent inflationary pressures and price shocks, while volatile exchange rates unsteady PPI’s and significantly high oil and commodity prices causes cost-push inflation. Policy certainty and political stability is important to keep inflation stable and economic growth positive, which could lead to a more self-sufficient economy which are is reliant on political instability as an obstacle for positive future economic growth. Type of Paper: Empirical JEL Classification: E31, E37, E60, E63 Keywords: Russian-Ukrainian conflict, economic growth, Brent crude oil prices, PPI, CPI, exchange rates, sunflower oil. Reference to this paper should be made as follows: Neethling, J.R; Wyk, A.S.V. (2022). Analysing the rising oil price shock driven by Russia-Ukrainian tensions - effect on inflationary pressure in South Africa, J. Bus. Econ. Review, 7(3), 178–193. https://doi.org/10.35609/jber.2022.7.3(3)