Higher GDP Growth Rates Research Articles

The International Experience in Private Sector Development: Lessons for Kuwait

The State of Kuwait is a small rich oil-based economy characterized by dominance of the large public sector in major economic activities. Such imbalanced structure has limited the role of the private sector in economic activities and has adversely affected economic growth. Based on the review of international experience in private sector development, this paper aimed to substantiate the impact of both private and public sectors growth on economic performance. Analysis of Kuwait's public expenditures verified the public sector dependency on oil revenues and inefficient utilization of resources. The theoretical review revealed a positive direct relationship between high GDP growth rate and the increased role of the private sector in the economy. Moreover, the review of recent transitional economies experiences in constructive economic transformation can be considered as an evidence of a rapid effective private sector growth. Finally, the analysis also demonstrated that Kuwait's public sector expenditures depict a rent seeking behaviour that has negatively impacted the society welfare.

An institutional analysis of housing and basic infrastructure services for all: the case of urban India

Despite high and sustained GDP growth rates over the past two decades, and the emergence of a sizable middle class in most Indian cities, the vast majority of urban residents continue to live in sub-standard or informal housing, with few basic amenities. Many of those who live in formal housing pay a disproportionately high proportion of their incomes. Even then, basic services like water are not assured. This paper aims to develop a conceptual framework within which to consider existing and future policies to deliver housing and basic infrastructure services for all in urban India. The framework attempts to map the inter-linkages between underlying housing market factors (demographics, existing housing stock, affordability, housing finance, land acquisition) and local and macro institutional conditions (economic, legal, planning, financial systems, housing policy), so that existing interventions can be understood and evaluated comprehensively. The framework can help develop interventions that take into a...

Decoupling Hypothesis and the Financial Crisis

The purpose of this paper was to present the decoupling hypothesis which says that the performance of emerging economies becomes relatively independent of the changes in advanced economies, and to empirically verify this hypothesis. The Christiano-Fitzgerald band-pass filter and spectral analyses have been applied to examine the hypothesis. On the basis of obtained results, comparing the deviations of GDPs from their long-term trend, it seems that the synchronization of cycles between emerging and advanced economies was already high before the crisis. The last global crisis, especially if time shifts between the countries are taken into account, even increased the synchronization of the economies. Therefore, this paper presents evidence against the decoupling hypothesis, and at the same time it raises doubts whether the high GDP growth rates in emerging economies can be sustainable in the presence of the slow-down in the advanced economies. The paper analyzes the situation from the Poland’s point of view as the country which is on the verge of joining the ERM2 system and adopting the euro (synchronization divagations are important for this decision) and because Poland is a good example of an emerging economy.

Evaluating Latin America's Commodity Dependence on China

During the last decade, China’s growing economic importance has been considered a blessing for South America, given their still relatively high dependence on the US and commodity exports. However, this positive sentiment is starting to change. Concerns are being raised about potential adverse effects of Chinese demand for raw materials and “excessive” imports of cheap manufactured goods as substitutes of domestic production. In other words, there is a growing fear about extreme export concentration and, in turn, de-industrialization.We explore to what extent South America has become “Sinodependent” and the implications of such dependency. To that end, we create a dependency index and then assess the implications of high Chinese GDP growth rates on South American performance over the last decade. We focus on four countries (Brazil, Argentina, Chile and Peru) and four commodities (iron ore, soy, copper, and ores of non-ferrous metals).We find that each of the countries analyzed has become more exposed to Chinese demand for the commodities in question. In fact, in the past ten years, exposure to Chinese demand measured by our weighted dependency index has risen. This is much more the case for some specific countries and products such as Argentinean soy, Brazilian iron ore and soy, and Chilean copper exports. Despite this increased exposure, we find that Chinese demand has added less than 1 percentage point to GDP growth rates in these four economies in the last years. Although this contribution may be considered bellow expectations, there are secondary effects from the production and export of these commodities not fully captured by the statistics. For any given commodity, there are likely to be spin-off effects in that for any given country, one or two commodities may function as an important engine driving the domestic economy. In turn, any downturn in demand, especially if tied directly to China, would have negative implications beyond the marginal effect on GDP growth that we have calculated here.The combination of hopes and anxieties tied to South America’s decade-long boom in economic relations with China is likely to persist. The honeymoon period of South America- China economic relations may or may not be over, but what is clear is that commodities will continue to underpin the relationship for better or for worse.

Variation in body mass index heritability based on diverse twin studies

ObjectivesOver three decades, twin studies showed various heritability of obesity, although genetic variation crucially affected obesity. This study examined the difference of body mass index (BMI) heritability (BMI‐H) by population characteristics.MethodsTwin studies with a combination of field tags for keywords, having quantitative information about BMI‐H without disease, special occupations or mixed population and written in English from Jan 1990 to Feb 2011 were searched in PubMed. Total 32 eligible studies identified. Meta regression models with random effect were used to test BMI heritability varied by population characteristics.ResultsHeterogeneity of BMI‐H is attributable to variations in age, year of observation, average BMI, and GDP (< $20,000, $20,000–25,999 & >;= $26,000) significantly. BMI‐H estimates were higher in adolescents, in the past, and study populations with high average BMI, or high GDP than those among their counterparts. Consistent lowering effects of high GDP growth rate were shown on the stratified analysis by GDP. Adults, in recent year and countries with low obesogenic condition (low average BMI) would likely to have lower BMI heritability, especially in middle GDP and experiencing rapid economic growth.ConclusionsBMI heritability is sensitive to age, time of observation, average BMI, GDP and rapid economic growth.

L'internationalisation des firmes chinoises : croissance, moteurs, stratégies

L’internationalisation des firmes chinoises va de paire avec une stratégie d’ouverture marquée par l’accueil des firmes multinationales étrangères ; elles ont fortement contribué au rattrapage et à la montée en gamme des firmes locales. Parmi les motifs de l’internationalisation, on compte l’accès aux ressources matérielles (Sud), technologiques, aux marques (Nord) et la recherche de nouveaux marchés. L’internationalisation est une expérimentation : gestion d’ensembles plus complexes, innovation dans le domaine des produits, du management sur des marchés très concurrentiels avec des succès certains, notamment dans les domaines s’appuyant sur des technologies moyennes, plus difficile dans les domaines à plus haute technologie.

Ethiopia's Growth and Transformation Plan: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Alternative Financing Options

Under the Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP), implemented from 2005/06 to 2009/10, Ethiopia achieved rapid economic growth and laid a foundation for future growth by making substantial investments in infrastructure and human capital. Regardless of the financing strategy, the high TFP and GDP growth rates under the GTP imply high average income growth for both poor and rich households, in both rural and urban areas. Because the GTP involves a greater concentration of investment in non-agricultural sectors than did PASDEP, growth of incomes of urban households is higher in the GTP than under PASDEP. Conversely, income growth of the rural poor is slightly lower under the medium growth scenario with domestic savings (10.0 percent) than under a continuation of PASDEP growth and investment (10.6 percent). Thus, this analysis shows that if the GTP investment and sectoral growth targets are achieved, real incomes of the poor in Ethiopia would rise substantially. The base simulations indicate that real incomes of the poor rose under PASDEP from 2005/06 to 2010/11. Under GTP, this real income growth would be accelerated, provided there is sufficient foreign savings or mobilization of domestic savings to achieve the targets. Nonetheless, the simulations also suggest that agricultural growth will still be crucial for raising incomes of Ethiopia’s rural poor. Thus, investments that raise agricultural productivity will need to continue in order to ensure that the rural poor share in the substantial projected benefits that would result from achieving the high economic growth targets of the GTP.

Impact of carbon intensity and energy security constraints on China's coal import

Logistic and Gaussian Curves are adopted in this article to predict the coal production peak for Shanxi province, Henan province as well as the whole of China. According to the prediction based on the basic coal reserve data, coal production in China will reach its peak in the 2030s while that of Shanxi and Henan provinces will be achieved by the 2040s and 2020s respectively. This article also assesses the influential factors of China's coal peak and revises the forecast of Lin and Liu (2010) about China's coal demand by taking the CO2 intensity constraint into consideration, and then predicting the corresponding coal import. The results show that China would import 983 million tonnes of coal in 2020; which takes as high as 27% of China's total coal consumption. This article demonstrates that even if China fulfills CO2 intensity constraint, the country's energy situation would still be grim as a result of its high GDP growth rate. Therefore, China has to consider both CO2 intensity and energy security constraints when establishing strategic energy plan. Finally, this article suggests an adjustment of energy structure by which those constraints can be addressed and further assesses the effect of the adjusted energy structure.

A quantitative transportation project investment evaluation approach with both equity and efficiency aspects

The motivation of this study is to develop a method for evaluating transportation investment quantitatively with consideration of both efficiency and equity.The current evaluation methods, predominantly cost–benefit analysis (CBA), concentrate mainly on the economic efficiency. Lacking equity considerations, these evaluation methods may result in an inappropriate investment. China is now a typical country with such a problem. With the huge investment in transportation infrastructure flooded in eastern provinces decades ago, these areas are benefitting the high GDP growth rate which is supported by these infrastructure, while the western provinces are suffering from the poor transportation system.Developing countries tend to invest more in comparatively developed areas for a higher return rate, leaving diversity between areas become more and more huge.This study introduced equity impacts into transportation investment evaluation methods after the concepts of various types of equity have been reviewed. Four quantitative models are proposed corresponding to 4 types of equity. Hereafter, an evaluation model from both equity and efficiency aspects for highway infrastructure investment appraisement is developed based on the theory of Wilson's entropy. The Lagrangian method is used to testify the model and to prove the result possesses optimal benefit distribution. This model takes account of the differences among different areas and social groups. Sensitivity analysis is conducted before twelve highway investment projects in China are studied with the method. The evaluation result is observably different from the one derived from the CBA.This fundamental consideration of transportation equity as well as the quantitative models may be helpful to developing countries or areas. However, further studies on transportation equity still need and the model still needs to be improved.

Study of the potential of low carbon energy development and its contribution to realize the reduction target of carbon intensity in China

Appraising low carbon energy potential in China and studying its contribution to China's target of cutting CO2 emissions by 40–45% per unit of GDP by 2020 is crucial for taking countermeasures against climate change and identifying low carbon energy development strategies. This paper presents two scenarios and evaluates the development potential for low carbon energy and its various sources. Based on the evaluation, we analyze how low carbon energy contributes to achieving China's national target of carbon intensity reduction. We draw several conclusions from the analysis. First, low carbon energy will contribute 9.74% (minimum) to 24.42% (maximum) toward the 2020 carbon intensity target under three economic development schemes. Second, the contribution will decrease when the GDP growth rate increases. Third, to maintain the same contribution with high GDP growth rates, China should not only strengthen its investment and policy stimulation for low carbon energy but also simultaneously optimize economic structures and improve carbon productivity.

Model India: A Poverty Alleviation Strategy for India

There are historical and institutional reasons behind Indian poverty but it is not acceptable if poverty persist in India in years to come when high GDP growth rate continues. 'Model India' is a poverty alleviation strategy designed for Indian economy to gradually bring its one billon poor people under a common framework. In this way, Indian economy may overcome its biggest obstacle to achieve double-digit homogenous growth. This proposal describes making business opportunities involving poor people as well as help Indian government set up pro-poor economic policies and infrastructures. Once the change starts for a target group and replicated across India, it will bring change for all others in the country. This framework is to be implemented across Indian economy and may be extended across the world to solve poverty problems.

Unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

This paper serves to document and analyze the employment and the labor market changes in urban China since the late 1980s. High and sustained GDP growth rates in China have paradoxically been accom ...

Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Developing Countries

By bridging the gap between domestic savings and investment and bringing the latest technology and management know-how from developed countries, foreign direct investment (FDI) can play an important role in achieving rapid economic growth in developing countries. Developing countries have not been considered as favourable destinations for FDI as developed countries. Moreover, among the developing countries a few, such as China, India, Nigeria and Sudan, are the major recipients of FDI, with the rest vying for the scraps. Using panel data from 68 low-income and lower-middle income developing countries, this article strives to identify the factors that determine FDI inflow to developing countries. Based on a comparative discussion focussing on why some countries are successful in attracting FDI, the article demonstrates that countries with larger GDPs, higher GDP growth rates, higher proportion of international trade and a more business-friendly environment are more successful in attracting FDI.

China, the United States, and the Geopolitics of Sustainability

In the aftermath of the financial crash of 2008, commentators speculated that the relative buoyancy of China’s economy signaled the onset of an epochal shift of world power from West to East. This article considers the evidence by reviewing the state of the Sino-American economic relationship against the backdrop of the urgency of action on climate change. The lead established by Chinese companies in the clean technology sectors underpins the PRC’s primacy in the alternative fuel economy, but political and social need for a high GDP growth rate is irreconcilable with the demand for decarbonization. By contrast, U.S. efforts to jumpstart a green industrial revolution are stymied by political resistance from oil and gas lobbies, and the longterm recovery of its economic dominance as a trade super power is in doubt. The initiative lies with Beijing, thrust, once again, into the role of making history under conditions not of its own making.

The Differential Effects of Bank Lending Channel in China

This paper examines the bank lending channels with a unique dataset of four state commercial banks in China at the provincial level over the period 1994-2004, and reports two new findings. First, the effectiveness of bank lending channel varies across provinces and banks. Banks shield their lending in provinces with high GDP growth and high inflation rate in response to a tightening in monetary policy. Liquid and poorly-capitalized banks protect their lending in provinces with larger state sector. Second, the heterogeneity in effectiveness of bank lending channel does not only relate to size, liquidity and capitalization of banks, but also the risk of their loan portfolios.

Regionalne zróżnicowanie bezrobocia

The article includes analysis results of the GDP growth rate influence on unemployment rates in voivodships in years 1995–2006. Results of the study are as follows: firstly, unemployment rates increased/decreased the most quickly in these voivodships where they were prior formed on a high level, and secondly, high GDP growth rates are usually accompanied, ceteris paribus, by low increases of unemployment rates. This means, that the spatial diversification of unemployment in Poland is fairly stable, and depends on spatial diversification of the economic growth.

Inflation Targeting and the Crisis: An Empirical Assessment

This paper appraises how countries with inflation targeting fared during the current crisis, with the goal of establishing the stylized facts that will guide and motivate future research. We find that since August 2008, IT countries lowered nominal policy rates by more and this loosening translated into an even larger differential in real interest rates relative to other countries; were less likely to face deflation scares; and saw sharp real depreciations not associated with a greater perception of risk by markets. We also find some weak evidence that IT countries did better on unemployment rates and advanced IT countries have had relatively stronger industrial production performance. Finally, we find that advanced IT countries had higher GDP growth rates than their non-IT peers, but find no such difference for emerging countries or the full sample.

産業連関表を用いた中国における経済発展と二酸化炭素排出に関する研究

Background, Aim and Scope. In 2007, China became the world’s most CO2 emitting country. China’s CO2 emission keeps increasing along with its high GDP growth rate reaching the average of nearly 10% over the past decade. From the perspective of global warming prevention, this study uses input-output tables to reveal the structural change in Chinese economy and the mechanism of CO2 emission by industry sectors.Methods. This study uses input-output tables of the National Bureau of Statistics of China to create linked input-output tables for 1997, 2002, and 2007. The linked input-output tables are converted into tables for environmental analysis by taking account of the energy consumption among industry groups. The converted tables are used for an estimation of CO2 inducement due to changes in the net final demand (domestic final demand and net exports) for each of the 3 different time points. Further, this study analyses the effect of trade on CO2 inducement by treating imports as the competitive type and assuming that imports and exports are produced under the same manufacturing technology available in China.Results and Discussion. Between 1997 and 2002, the CO2 emission increase was small, but the emission increased by 95% between 2002 and 2007. On the other hand, the CO2 inducement intensity decreased in most of industries due to the advancement of energy-efficient technology. The fixed capital formation accounts for a large part of the increase in induced CO2 from the domestic final demand. The final consumption is distinguished between rural area and urban area, and the study finds that the increase in induced CO2 is small for the rural consumption and large for the urban consumption. Secondary industry grew rapidly, and there is a rapid increase of induced CO2 in the industry. As trade grows, CO2 emission increases in China and in its trading partners. The induced CO2 from exports is increased and it accounts for nearly 33% of the induced CO2 from the final demand (domestic final demand and exports) in 2007. The induced CO2 from imports notably exceeds that from exports for mining industry and chemical industry, indicating that CO2 is induced more in import-producing countries than in China. It indicates that China has a tendency to import parts, materials, and minerals produced in these industries and assembles them to produce exports.Conclusions. Having abundant coal reserve, China heavily relies on its energy source to coal, which has a high CO2 emission factor. The issue of global warming is accelerating new innovations in the direction of using clean energy, and China’s future tasks are reducing its coal dependency and increasing the energy efficiency for sustainable development.

Measuring income and projecting energy use

Energy is a key requirement for a healthy, productive life and a major driver of the emissions leading to an increasingly warm planet. The implications of a doubling and redoubling of per capita incomes over the remainder of this century for energy use are a critical input into understanding the magnitude of the carbon management problem. A substantial controversy about how the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) measured income and the potential implications of how income was measured for long term levels of energy use is revisited again in the McKibbin, Pearce and Stegman article appearing elsewhere in this issue. The recent release of a new set of purchasing power estimates of national income, and the preparations for creating new scenarios to support the IPCC’s fifth assessment highlight the importance of the issues which have arisen surrounding income and energy use. Comparing the 1993 and 2005 ICP results on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) based measures of income reveals that not only do the 2005 ICP estimates share the same issue of common growth rates for real income as measured by PPP and US $, but the lack of coherence in the estimates of PPP incomes, especially for developing countries raises yet another obstacle to resolving the best way to measure income. Further, the common use of an income term to mediate energy demand (as in the Kaya identity) obscures an underlying reality about per capita energy demands, leading to unreasonable estimates of the impact of changing income measures and of the recent high GDP growth rates in India and China. Significant new research is required to create both a reasonable set of GDP growth rates and long term levels of energy use.

New poverty line and growth chart bring forth sharp inequalities in the Indian population

New poverty line and growth chart bring forth sharp inequalities in the Indian population