High Fire Activity Research Articles

Enhancing burned area monitoring with VIIRS dataset: A case study in Sub-Saharan Africa

Since 2001, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor on board the Aqua and Terra platforms has made great strides in providing information on global burned areas (BA). However, the MODIS mission is nearing its end. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) sensors, presented as the MODIS Aqua heritage, could be an excellent alternative to ensure the temporal continuity of this information at a moderate resolution. This paper describes and evaluates the effectiveness of our developed hybrid algorithm, which utilizes VIIRS reflectance and active fire products on the Google Earth Engine platform, in producing efficient information about BA. The study investigates the algorithm's performance in sub-Saharan Africa as the region of interest in 2019, using biweekly outputs and a spatial resolution of 250 m. The algorithm encompasses several steps, including pre-processing individual scenes, creating cloud-free composites, generating binary reference data for burned and non-burned areas, conducting a supervised classification using random forest, and performing region shaping. The VIIRS-BA final product, which includes three confidence levels (low, moderate, and high) known as the uncertainty layer, is compared to four other burned area products. The validation is conducted against 27 reference sampling units from the Sentinel-2 Burned Area Reference Database dataset, allowing for a comprehensive uncertainty assessment across five various biomes. The VIIRS-BA product identified 5.1 million km2 of BA, which was significantly larger than other global coarse resolution BA products such as FireCCI51, FireCCIS310, and MCD64A1 and close to the fine resolution FireCCISFD20 with a difference of 7.3%. The differences were less significant in biomes such as “Tropical Savannas” and “Temperate Grasslands” which are characterized by persistent biomass burning. Based on a stratified random sampling, the validation results demonstrate varying levels of accuracy for the VIIRS-BA product across different confidence levels. The commission error (CE) ranges from 7.8% to 23.4%, while the omission error (OE) falls between 29.4% and 58.8%. Notably, there is a significant reduction in OE (ranging from 40.7% to 50.5%) compared to global BA products like FireCCI51, FireCCIS310, and MCD64A1. When compared to VIIRS-BA, the FireCCISFD20 regional product has a 37% better OE performance. While VIIRS-BA shows great potential in detecting fires that global products miss, the VIIRS-BA with low confidence level tends to overestimate BA in regions with high fire activity. To address this, future versions of the algorithm will integrate the updated VIIRS reflectance data alongside VIIRS active fire from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to reduce CE and improve understanding spatial patterns.

Co-occurrence of marine and atmospheric heatwaves with drought conditions and fire activity in the Mediterranean region

Climate change has become a major concern in the twenty-first century, leading to the amplification of extreme events and, consequently, to severe impacts on society, economy and ecosystems. Heatwave conditions in particular, often coupled with extended periods of dryness, have an important contribution in exacerbating rural fires. Here, we propose to analyse the co-occurring interplay between atmospheric heatwaves and droughts in southern Europe, and marine heatwaves in the East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea, between 2001 and 2022, highlighting their linkage to wildfires, on both an individual and compound approach. Positive correlations between air and sea temperatures and negative correlations between air temperature and precipitation values were found. Our analysis reveals that severe wildfires are mostly associated with reduced precipitation and/or elevated air temperatures during the summer season, alongside heightened sea surface temperatures. Marine hot (drier) conditions are prevalent for months in which burned areas remain below (above) the 80th percentile. Months marked by higher fire activity are predominantly associated with extreme climatic conditions, showcasing a substantial occurrence of compound events. This study highlights the potential of considering both land-based atmospheric and marine conditions when exploring compound extremes, crucial for mitigating climatic disasters. Moreover, it highlights the role played by compound extreme events in fire management strategies, particularly considering the present context of climate change and the increasing frequency and severity of extreme events threatening ecosystem stability.

Joining forces to fight wildfires: Science and management in a protected area of Pantanal, Brazil

In 2020, the world’s largest continuous stretch of wetlands, the Pantanal in South America, recorded its most catastrophic fire season of the last two decades, resulting in severe economic, ecological and health consequences. Regional environmental institutions and communities are taking measures to protect their unique ecosystem, as is the case of the Reserva Particular do Patrimônio Natural (RPPN) Sesc Pantanal, a national protected area. The reserve was severely affected by the 2020 wildfires and is now en route to recover and intensify prevention strategies. Here, we employ a state-of-the-art satellite-derived burned area dataset and a global climate reanalysis product to map and assess the incidence and vulnerability of this reserve to its most concerning disturbance: wildfires. We validated the remote-sensed burned area product and found that the product successfully maps the years with higher fire activity. Then, we studied historical occurrences of burned areas within the reserve. The results show large burned areas are uncommon, and highlight the year 2020 as an outlier, when around 65 % of the reserve was burned. Climate trends over the last four decades show increasing temperatures and wind speed, and decreasing relative humidity and precipitation. Fire weather is thus steadily rising, bearing favourable conditions for fire activity over the most critical months of the year. This study provides useful information for fire management decisions within the largest privately held natural reserve in Brazil, and further allows the assessment of the applicability and limitations of large-scale and state-of-the-art products to inform decision-making within protected areas.

Increasing Fire Activity in African Tropical Forests Is Associated With Deforestation and Climate Change

AbstractFires were historically rare in tropical forests of West and Central Africa, where dense vegetation, rapid decomposition, and high moisture limit available fuels. However, increasing heat and drought combined with forest degradation and fragmentation are making these areas more susceptible to wildfires. We evaluated historical patterns of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer active fires in African tropical forests from 2003 to 2021. Trends were mostly positive, particularly in the northeastern and southern Congo Basin, and were concentrated in areas with high deforestation. Year‐to‐year variation of fires was synchronized with increasing temperature and vapor pressure deficit. There was anomalously high fire activity across the region during the 2015–2016 El Niño. These results contrast with the drier African woodlands and savannas, where fire has been decreasing. Further attention to fires in African tropical forests is needed to understand their global impacts on carbon dynamics and their local implications for biodiversity and human livelihoods.

Fire–climate–human dynamics over the last 1800 years in the mesic Araucaria‐Nothofagus forests

AbstractAimFew palaeoenvironmental studies have been performed in Araucaria‐Nothofagus forests, which are highly vulnerable to ongoing threats from climate change and anthropogenic activities. The primary goal of this work is to reconstruct past environmental changes related to fire disturbances over the last 1800 years in Tolhuaca National Park (TNP), Chile.LocationTNP, Araucanian region (38.2°S; 71.8°W), Northwestern Patagonia, Chile.TaxaAraucaria araucana (Araucariaceae), Nothofagus spp. (Nothofagaceae).MethodsWe completed charcoal and pollen analyses to create two new palaeoecological records that span 1800 years. We compared the lake‐based reconstruction with the available local tree‐ring fire scar chronologies from the last 430 years. Using these data, we compute forest index changes, biomass burning trends and compare with estimates of archaeological radiocarbon density. We place our inferences with context of published regional palaeoclimatic proxies from the Patagonian‐Andean region.ResultsOur results showed that fire activity was higher than present between 200 and 1500 CE, with peaks around 200–400 CE and 1100–1500 CE. Periods with high fire activity are associated with reduced forest cover, as Araucaria declined when mixed‐severity fire regime occurred for extended periods. Pollen assemblages suggested a shift from dry to wet climate conditions at 1500 CE, and from 1750 CE onward, the arrival of exotic species reflected the land‐use changes related to forest clearance and transhumance practices.Main ConclusionsThe palaeoenvironmental reconstructions showed changes in vegetation, fire and climate over the past 1800 years in TNP. Wildfires have been the main disturbance process modifying the vegetation structure in the Araucaria and Nothofagus forests. Since 1750 CE intensive post‐Hispanic land‐use changes (forest clearances by fire and logging) took place in the study area, reducing the native vegetation cover. Climate variability, modulated by SAM‐like and ENSO‐like conditions, influenced the fire activity (availability and flammability of fuels), concomitantly with high archaeological density. The recent (after 2000 CE) increase of catastrophic wildfires may negatively affect the conservation strategies of Araucaria‐Nothofagus forests.

Evaluating the Alaska Blocking Index as an indicator of wildfire potential in Alaska's central eastern interior

AbstractIncreased Arctic air temperatures and evaporative fluxes have coincided with more frequent and destructive high‐latitude wildfires. Arctic fires impact ecosystems and people, especially at the community‐level by degrading air quality, destroying agriculture, and threatening life and property. Central Eastern Interior (CEI) Alaska is one such region that has recently experienced the effects of wildfire activity related to warming air temperatures. To improve our ability to identify fire weather events and assess their potential for extreme outbreaks at actionable lead times relevant to fire weather forecasters and managers, new metrics and approaches need to be established and applied toward understanding the physical mechanisms underlying such wildland fire characteristics. Our study uses a new, regional atmospheric circulation metric, the Alaska Blocking Index (ABI), to describe midtropospheric air pressure around Alaska, which is subsequently related to CEI fire weather conditions at the Predictive Service Area (PSA) scale in climatological and extreme events frameworks. Of note, during years of high fire activity, Build‐Up Index (BUI) values tend to be anomalously high during the duff and drought phases across the CEI PSAs, though comparatively lower BUI values are still associated with high fire activity in the Tanana Zone‐South (AK03S) PSA. Likewise, extreme BUI values are strongly tied to high ABI values and well‐defined upper‐air ridging circulation patterns in the duff and drought periods. The statistical skill of mean daily ABI values in the 6–10 day period preceding extreme duff period BUI values is modest (τ2 > 14%) in the Upper Yukon Valley (AK02) PSA, a hotbed of wildland fire activity. Extremes in ABI and CEI BUI often occur in tandem, yielding regional predictability of upper‐air weather patterns and extremes and underlying surface weather conditions, by statistical and/or dynamical forecast models, imperative for local community and governmental organizations to effectively manage and allocate Alaska's fire weather resources.

Assessment and characteristics of S-NPP VIIRS Deep Blue and Dark Target aerosol properties under clean, polluted and fire scenarios over the Amazon

The present study carries out the systematic performance evaluation of aerosol optical depth (AOD) products retrieved using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) Deep Blue (DB) and Dark Target (DT) onboard Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite over the Amazon Basin. Characteristics and uncertainty were evaluated under distinct air pollution scenarios such as a clean background in the wet season, polluted conditions in the dry season with biomass burning emissions and peak burning season with higher fire activity. VIIRS retrievals were also analyzed under aerosol loading, particle size and surface vegetation coverage against the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) measurements at 9 sites in 2012–2022. VIIRS DB showed good accuracy, with 78% of AOD matchups falling within the expected error, 84% in the wet season, and 71% in the dry and burning seasons. In contrast, VIIRS DT indicated poor accuracy (64%) and trends overestimate the AOD in all air pollution scenarios. Both algorithms were sensitive to AERONET sites with high elevation and dark vegetated coverage characteristics. VIIRS DB and DT systematically overestimated AERONET AOD as increased aerosol loading. DB trends underestimate aerosol under background conditions and overestimate with coarse and fine particle predominance. Additionally, both algorithms indicated poor accuracy under forest type with a large positive bias. VIIRS DB demonstrated the highest accuracy in the presence of aerosol loading in sites characterized by mixed land cover type. This was observed in both coarse and fine mode scenarios for grassland. VIIRS DT demonstrated satisfactory accuracy under background conditions and dominance of coarse particles within grassland land cover type. For mixed land cover, satisfactory accuracy was found under intermediate aerosol loading conditions. DB algorithm showed greater uncertainty associated with the coarse particle aerosol for the full period and all polluted scenarios. Overall, VIIRS DT accuracy was more sensitive to varying air pollution scenarios.

The legacy of millennial-scale land-use practices on landscape composition, diversity and slope erosion in the subalpine areas of Eastern Carpathians, Romania

We conducted multi-proxy analyses in two subalpine lakes, Lake Gropile, in the Rodna Mountains and Lake Vinderelu in the Maramureș Mountains, the Eastern Carpathians, Romania, to investigate the effect of different land-use practices on landscape composition, diversity and slope erosion. In the case of Lake Gropile, results evidenced a more extended tree and shrub cover and high fire activity between 6400 and 2800 cal yr BP, accompanied by reduced soil erosion, which appeared more strongly regulated by climatic conditions. Anthropogenic impact became evident 2800 years ago, when landscape openness, pasturing, and disturbance of soil cover increased and intensified over the last four centuries. In the case of Lake Vinderelu, intensified burning was followed by grazing around 1200–1100 cal yr BP and continued throughout the last millennium. Results also highlight the site-specific effects of land-use on vegetation composition and landscape diversity. For Lake Vinderelu, a combined effect of local burning and grazing in removing shrub cover appear to be the main drivers of changes in landscape diversity and structure. At Lake Gropile, fire was more connected to shrub cover changes while grazing to herbaceous cover diversity. Moderate to low grazing appeared to benefit both subalpine ecosystems, creating rich grassland-shrub mosaic communities, while overgrazing reduced landscape diversity and exacerbated erosion. Our findings document the millennial-scale legacy of land-use practices on the subalpine landscapes in this region. We propose that these semi-natural ecosystems hold important ecological and cultural value, and recommend their maintenance through controlled, low intensity pasturing and/or burning.

Autoregressive Forecasting of the Number of Forest Fires Using an Accumulated MODIS-Based Fuel Dryness Index

There is a need to convert fire danger indices into operational estimates of fire activity to support strategic fire management, particularly under climate change. Few studies have evaluated multiple accumulation times for indices that combine both dead and remotely sensed estimates of live fuel moisture, and relatively few studies have aimed at predicting fire activity from both such fuel moisture estimates and autoregressive terms of previous fires. The current study aimed at developing models to forecast the 10-day number of fires by state in Mexico, from an accumulated Fuel Dryness Index (FDI) and an autoregressive term from the previous 10-day observed number of fires. A period of 50 days of accumulated FDI (FDI50) provided the best results to forecast the 10-day number of fires from each state. The best predictions (R2 > 0.6–0.75) were obtained in the largest states, with higher fire activity, and the lower correlations were found in small or very dry states. Autoregressive models showed good skill (R2 of 0.99–0.81) to forecast FDI50 for the next 10 days based on previous fuel dryness observations. Maps of the expected number of fires showed potential to reproduce fire activity. Fire predictions might be enhanced with gridded weather forecasts in future studies.

Organic layers preserved in ice patches: A new record of Holocene environmental change on the Beartooth Plateau, USA

Growing season temperatures play a crucial role in controlling treeline elevation at regional to global scales. However, understanding of treeline dynamics in response to long-term changes in temperature is limited. In this study, we analyze pollen, plant macrofossils, and charcoal preserved in organic layers within a 10,400-year-old ice patch and in sediment from a 6000-year-old wetland located above present-day treeline in the Beartooth Mountains, Wyoming, to explore the relationship between Holocene climate variability and shifts in treeline elevation. Pollen data indicate a lower-than-present treeline between 9000 and 6200 cal yr BP during the warm, dry summer and cold winter conditions of the early Holocene. Increases in arboreal pollen at 6200 cal yr BP suggest an upslope treeline expansion when summers became cooler and wetter. A possible hiatus in the wetland record at ca. 4200–3000 cal yr BP suggests increased snow and ice cover at high elevations and a lowering of treeline. Treeline position continued to fluctuate with growing season warming and cooling during the late-Holocene. Periods of high fire activity correspond with times of increased woody cover at high elevations. The two records indicate that climate was an important driver of vegetation and treeline change during the Holocene. Early Holocene treeline was governed by moisture limitations, whereas late-Holocene treeline was sensitive to increases in growing season temperatures. Climate projections for the region suggest warmer temperatures could decrease effective growing season moisture at high elevations resulting in a reduction of treeline elevation.

Awake responses suggest inefficient dense coding in the mouse retina.

The structure and function of the vertebrate retina have been extensively studied across species with an isolated, ex vivo preparation. Retinal function in vivo, however, remains elusive, especially in awake animals. Here, we performed single-unit extracellular recordings in the optic tract of head-fixed mice to compare the output of awake, anesthetized, and ex vivo retinas. While the visual response properties were overall similar across conditions, we found that awake retinal output had in general (1) faster kinetics with less variability in the response latencies; (2) a larger dynamic range; and (3) higher firing activity, by ~20 Hz on average, for both baseline and visually evoked responses. Our modeling analyses further showed that such awake response patterns convey comparable total information but less efficiently, and allow for a linear population decoder to perform significantly better than the anesthetized or ex vivo responses. These results highlight distinct retinal behavior in awake states, in particular suggesting that the retina employs dense coding in vivo, rather than sparse efficient coding as has been often assumed from ex vivo studies.

Holocene climate variability and the effect of anthropogenic activities on the vegetation landscape of western-central Mexico

Atmospheric forcings control climate variability and at the same time control vegetation distribution and forest fires during the Holocene. Paleoenvironmental studies are scarce in western Mexico, particularly those documenting vegetation change, landscape dynamics, and fire regimes. This study presents a vegetation and fire occurrence reconstruction in the Etzatlán-Magdalena paleolake, western Mexico, during the Holocene. The reconstruction relies on fossil pollen, macrocharcoal and microcharcoal analyses of a clay sediment core. In the early Holocene (10–5.8 ka), climatic conditions were humid between 10 and 9 ka, represented by cloud forest of Liquidambar, Juglans, and Betulaceae. After 9 ka Quercus forest expanded and a trend towards warm conditions was detected, associated with high fire activity, suggesting the presence of a dry forest. Fire episodes at local and regional scale had a long-term negative effect on temperate and cloud forests. In the middle Holocene (5.8–2.1 ka), temperate forest was replaced by dry forest, indicating a drier climate. In the late Holocene (2.1–0.3 ka), the expansion of disturbance taxa and the low local fires indicated an open landscape and dry conditions. Human activity was documented by an increase of Cheno-Amaranthaceae, Poaceae and microcharcoal concentration after 3.5 ka. This research provides relevant information on the vegetation dynamics in a region with a long history of human settlement.

Insights into the Drivers and Spatiotemporal Trends of Extreme Mediterranean Wildfires with Statistical Deep Learning

Abstract Extreme wildfires continue to be a significant cause of human death and biodiversity destruction within countries that encompass the Mediterranean Basin. Recent worrying trends in wildfire activity (i.e., occurrence and spread) suggest that wildfires are likely to be highly impacted by climate change. To facilitate appropriate risk mitigation, it is imperative to identify the main drivers of extreme wildfires and assess their spatiotemporal trends, with a view to understanding the impacts of the changing climate on fire activity. To this end, we analyze the monthly burnt area due to wildfires over a region encompassing most of Europe and the Mediterranean Basin from 2001 to 2020 and identify high fire activity during this period in eastern Europe, Algeria, Italy, and Portugal. We build an extreme quantile regression model with a high-dimensional predictor set describing meteorological conditions, land-cover usage, and orography, for the domain. To model the complex relationships between the predictor variables and wildfires, we make use of a hybrid statistical deep learning framework that allows us to disentangle the effects of vapor pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature, and drought on wildfire activity. Our results highlight that while VPD, air temperature, and drought significantly affect wildfire occurrence, only VPD affects wildfire spread. Furthermore, to gain insights into the effect of climate trends on wildfires in the near future, we focus on the extreme wildfires in August 2001 and perturb VPD and temperature according to their observed trends. We find that, on average over Europe, trends in temperature (median over Europe: +0.04 K yr−1) lead to a relative increase of 17.1% and 1.6% in the expected frequency and severity, respectively, of wildfires in August 2001; similar analyses using VPD (median over Europe: +4.82 Pa yr−1) give respective increases of 1.2% and 3.6%. Our analysis finds evidence suggesting that global warming can lead to spatially nonuniform changes in wildfire activity.

Vegetation, fire and climate history in central-western Tasmania (41°S), Australia, over the last ∼21,000 years

We present high resolution pollen and macroscopic charcoal records from Basin Lake, a relatively small mid-latitude (42°S) lake located in central-western Tasmania, Australia, to examine vegetation, fire and climate change since and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We find dominance of cold-resistant alpine vegetation with buttongrass moorland and scant trees between ∼21.0-17.7 cal kyr BP, with local biomass burning and low lake levels between ∼21.0-20.0 cal kyr BP and a reduction in local biomass burning and a rise in lake levels between ∼20.0-17.7 cal kyr BP. These data suggest glacial-cold conditions during the last millennia of the LGM, with relatively humid conditions between ∼21.0-20.0 cal kyr BP and a further increase in humidity between ∼20.0-17.7 cal kyr BP. These shifts suggest an intensification of the South Westerly Winds (SWW) over the site between ∼20.0-17.7 cal kyr BP. An increase in cold-temperate rainforest taxa followed between ∼17.7-16.0 cal kyr BP along with lake-level lowering, suggesting a warm pulse and southward shift of the SWW at the beginning of the Last Glacial Termination (T1). Subsequent cold-temperate conditions and increased precipitation ensued between ∼16.0-14.9 cal kyr BP promoted by increased SWW influence. A rise in cold-resistant and hygrophilous rainforest taxa and lower biomass burning activity occurred between ∼14.9-12.8 cal kyr BP under colder conditions, enhanced precipitation and major SWW influence. A multi-millennial warm/dry interval began at ∼12.8 cal kyr BP with a decline in rainforest taxa, high fire activity and low lake levels and a further opening of the vegetation in response to elevated biomass burning between ∼11.1-8.9 cal kyr BP. We suggest a decline in the SWW influence that started at ∼12.8 cal kyr BP and accentuated between ∼11.1-8.9 cal kyr BP at the beginning of the Holocene. We detect increases in precipitation between ∼8.9-5.8, ∼3.4-1.9 cal kyr BP and the last ∼900 years, with declines in the intervening intervals. Our data indicate a pronounced and sustained fire-driven shift to a more open and shrub dominant landscape after ∼5.0 cal kyr BP, in synchronous with other pollen data from Tasmania's west, reflecting an increased efficacy of Aboriginal burning under more variable and overall reduced precipitation. Our climate inferences from Basin Lake are coherent with variations of the SWW identified in other terrestrial mid-latitudes records, suggesting synchronic changes in the SWW during and since the LGM.

On the timing of megafaunal extinction and associated floristic consequences in Australia through the lens of functional palaeoecology

The timing and cause of megafaunal extinctions are an enduring focus of research interest and debate. Despite the developments in the analysis of coprophilous fungal spores (CFS), the proxy for reconstructing past megaherbivore changes, the environmental consequences of this fauna loss remain understudied. This is partly due to the general obscurity of such a signal in pollen records, as well as limitations in disentangling human and extinction ecological impact, and the lack of spatial information of megafauna changes in site-level sedimentary records. In Australia, the debate centres on the possibility that habitat loss through climate change, vegetation-fire change, human intervention, or a combination of these factors led to the extinction of some large animals during the Late Pleistocene. Pollen and plant isotope studies have also demonstrated that vegetation-fire responses following the Late Pleistocene megafaunal extinctions were characterized by increased vegetation density and fire activity due to reduced grazing/browsing pressure. Here, we use a well-dated marine sedimentary core record from the Murray Darling Basin in southern Australia and apply palynological and functional palaeoecological approaches to reconstruct the Late Pleistocene megafaunal abundance changes, the timing and potential cause of extinction across the basin and investigate if extinction was associated with any signal of trait-based vegetation changes. We infer megafaunal abundance changes from the abundance of CFS and compare this with climatic proxies from the same core. We then link modern observations of fruit, seed and fire response traits of plant genera within the basin to the fossil pollen record to reconstruct palaeo vegetation community traits and determine if extinction was associated with any changes in plant community trait composition. Closely-spaced 14C dates obtained from planktonic foraminifera and δ18O tie points place a major decline in CFS, and thus the timing of extinction, within the basin at ∼43.3 ka. While climate-driven environmental changes largely controlled megafaunal presence, human arrival and frequent landscape burning are considered the most likely primary cause of extinction or, at the very least, megafauna decline in the Murray Darling Basin. We also found that the proposed period of megafaunal decline was also accompanied and followed by a decline in the prevalence of plants with larger seeds and fruits that were likely to have been once dispersed by megaherbivores. Our study supports the idea of a human-driven megafaunal extinction in mainland Australia and that the extinction caused changes in vegetation due to reduced plant dispersal and herbivory. However, high fire activity primarily linked to these vegetation changes was not observed, as humans were already practicing landscape burning before the period of megafaunal extinction and likely continued to do so afterward.

History of vegetation and fires in the Arctic part of the Pur-Taz interfluve in the Holocene

The global climate change and significantly increased anthropogenic pressure on the Arctic and Subarctic regions require modern ecosystem monitoring and understanding of the past environmental changes. Vegetation history is reflected by pollen spectra recorded in peat deposits, investigation of which is one of the main methods in the research of long-term climatic changes. In order to reconstruct the vegetation and fire history of today’s south tundra in the lower reaches of the Taz river, we carried out palynological exploration of peat and underlying lake sediments covering the last 11.2 cal ka BP in the Tazovsky district of the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug (Russia). In the course of the research, we found 31 pollen taxa, 4 taxa of spore plants, 2 types of fungal spores, one species of shell amoeba and green algae. We have identified several stages in the development of the local wetland biocenosis at the study site and reconstructed the history of changes in the vegetation cover of the region, including changes in the composition of the woody vegetation. Grasslands, with groups of trees among thickets of shrubs and lake-mire complexes dominated in the study area by 11.2 cal ka BP. The grasslands were gradually supplemented by wet grass communities, which were then replaced by swamps and tundra complexes in the mid-Holocene. The time periods of the local fires have been established. The fire that had the greatest effect on the vegetation at the study site was detected in the period of 8.1 cal ka BP. We have revealed periods of the least fire activity – 7.6–5.5 cal ka BP and the highest fire activity – 12.5–8 cal ka BP.

Variations in Holocene fire activity and its controls in the Ningshao Plain, eastern China

Extensive fires pose catastrophic threats to both human and natural ecosystems. Understanding the history of fire, particularly Holocene palaeofire activity in densely populated areas, is essential for predicting future fire risks and developing effective fire management policies. The complexity of fire activity is influenced by various factors, including climate and anthropogenic activities. In this study, we analysed microcharcoal from the top 35.36 m of a well‐dated sediment core HMD1401 in Ningshao Plain, eastern China. We combined our findings with phytolith and diatom evidence to obtain a comprehensive understanding of variations in Holocene fire activity and its controls. The results showed that there was higher fire activity during the early and late Holocene and less fire activity during the mid‐Holocene. More frequent fire occurred from c. 10 000–7000 cal. a BP and was primarily caused by abundant biomass and high seasonal flammability due to increased annual temperature and precipitation and warm but dry winter climate. Fire occurrences between c. 7000–2000 cal. a BP remained at a low level, except for the periods c. 5900–5600 cal. a BP and c. 5300 cal. a BP, which may have been caused by extreme climate events. The impact of fire caused by human activity was significantly enhanced during the last two millennia.

Influence of climatic conditions on forest fires in Central Yakutia

The activity of forest fires has greatly increased in recent years in Central Yakutia. This can lead to the radical transformation of permafrost landscapes and their degradation. This study aimed to determine the effects of climatic conditions on forest fire activity in this area. We analyzed data on air temperature and rainfall during the fire season from 2000 to 2020. The total annual burned areas have noticeably increased since the 2000s. Forest fires covered an area of more than a million hectares in 2002 and 2011. This trend was associated with climate change. The mean annual air temperature in Yakutsk increased by approximately 2 °C from 2000 to 2020, while the summer precipitation decreased. Both air temperature and the amount of precipitation during the fire season affect the accumulation of dry combustible material under the forest canopy, which determines whether favorable conditions are created for the spread of forest fires over large areas. We showed which climatic conditions are typical for periods of high and low fire activity. We analyzed the climatic conditions of certain years with the maximum and minimum burnt areas. Fire activity in the study area depends on the climatic conditions at the beginning of the fire season. High fire activity occurs at very high air temperatures; however, the predominant role is the deficiency of precipitation. The study of the dependence of forest fire activity on climatic conditions is important for estimating the consequences caused by climate change in permafrost landscapes.

Environmental changes during the onset of the Late Pliensbachian Event (Early Jurassic) in the Cardigan Bay Basin, Wales

Abstract. The Late Pliensbachian Event (LPE), in the Early Jurassic, is associated with a perturbation in the global carbon cycle (positive carbon isotope excursion (CIE) of ∼2 ‰), cooling of ∼5 ∘C, and the deposition of widespread regressive facies. Cooling during the late Pliensbachian has been linked to enhanced organic matter burial and/or disruption of thermohaline ocean circulation due to a sea level lowstand of at least regional extent. Orbital forcing had a strong influence on the Pliensbachian environments and recent studies show that the terrestrial realm and the marine realm in and around the Cardigan Bay Basin, UK, were strongly influenced by orbital climate forcing. In the present study we build on the previously published data for long eccentricity cycle E459 ± 1 and extend the palaeoenvironmental record to include E458 ± 1. We explore the environmental and depositional changes on orbital timescales for the Llanbedr (Mochras Farm) core during the onset of the LPE. Clay mineralogy, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) elemental analysis, isotope ratio mass spectrometry, and palynology are combined to resolve systematic changes in erosion, weathering, fire, grain size, and riverine influx. Our results indicate distinctively different environments before and after the onset of the LPE positive CIE and show increased physical erosion relative to chemical weathering. We also identify five swings in the climate, in tandem with the 405 kyr eccentricity minima and maxima. Eccentricity maxima are linked to precessionally repeated occurrences of a semi-arid monsoonal climate with high fire activity and relatively coarser sediment from terrestrial runoff. In contrast, 405 kyr minima in the Mochras core are linked to a more persistent, annually wet climate, low fire activity, and relatively finer-grained deposits across multiple precession cycles. The onset of the LPE positive CIE did not impact the expression of the 405 kyr cycle in the proxy records; however, during the second pulse of heavier carbon (13C) enrichment, the clay minerals record a change from dominant chemical weathering to dominant physical erosion.

Differing local‐scale responses of Bolivian Amazon forest ecotones to middle Holocene drought based upon multiproxy soil data

ABSTRACTUncertainty remains over local‐scale responses of ecotonal Amazonian forests to middle Holocene drying due to the scarcity, and coarse spatial resolution, of lacustrine pollen records. This paper examines the palaeoecological potential of soil phytoliths, stable carbon isotopes and charcoal for capturing local‐scale ecotonal responses of different types of Bolivian Amazonian forest to middle Holocene climate change. Soil pits 1 m deep were dug at ecotones between rainforest, dry forest, Chaco woodland and savannah, and sampled at 5–10 cm resolution. Both phytolith and stable carbon isotope records indicate stability of dry forest–savannah ecotones over the last ca. 6000 years, despite middle Holocene drought, revealing the dominance of edaphic factors over climate in controlling this type of ecotone. In contrast, δ13C data reveal that rainforest–savannah ecotones were more responsive to climate change, with rainforest likely replaced by drought‐tolerant dry forest or savannah vegetation during the mid‐Holocene, consistent with regional‐scale lacustrine pollen records. However, such shifts are not apparent in most of our phytolith records due to insufficient taxonomic resolution in differentiating rainforest from dry forest. Charcoal data show that ecotonal dry forests experienced greater fire activity than rainforests and that recent high fire activity at all forest sites is unprecedented since at least the middle Holocene.