This study employs land use and energy consumption data from Gansu Province spanning the years 2005 to 2020 and utilizes models to estimate carbon emissions and the corresponding carbon compensation values. The research calculated the carbon emissions and compensation for various administrative regions over different time periods, revealing the following insights: (1) There is a notable increasing trend in net carbon emissions due to land-use changes in Gansu Province, characterized by an initial swift rise, followed by a more gradual growth pattern. Construction land is identified as the primary contributor to carbon emissions, increasing from 26 million tons in 2005 to 55.3 million tons in 2020, which is an increase of 1.80 times; meanwhile, forested areas, as significant carbon sinks, show a slight increase in carbon absorption from 2.33 million tons in 2005 to 2.35 million tons in 2020. (2) The municipalities with high net carbon emissions are predominantly Lanzhou, Qingyang City, and Jiuquan City, which are marked by high levels of carbon emissions and low compensation rates. In contrast, regions with lower net carbon emissions are mainly found in the Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture, where emissions are minimal and compensation rates are relatively high. A similarity in the spatial distribution patterns of both net carbon emission intensity and total net carbon emissions is observed among these cities. Alterations in land use have a significant impact on regional carbon emissions. Investigating the spatiotemporal variations of land-use change and carbon compensation in Gansu Province is essential for comprehending the dynamics of regional carbon emissions, developing effective emission reduction strategies, and fostering low-carbon development.
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