High Debt Research Articles

CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND PROFITABILITY OF COMMERCIAL STATE-OWNED ENTERPRISES IN NAMIBIA

This study investigates the impact of capital structure on the performance of commercial stateowned enterprises (SOEs) in Namibia using panel data modelling techniques on data from 2011 to 2020. The research extends performance measures and leverage measures employed by previous studies, utilizing total liabilities to total assets (TLTA) and total equity to total assets (TETA) to examine the effects of debt structures on corporate finance. The study employs return on equity (ROE) and return on assets (ROA) as performance measures. The findings reveal no significant relationship between capital structure and profitability of commercial SOEs in Namibia, thus supporting the irrelevance theory. Additionally, a unidirectional causality is found between capital structure and profitability measures. The study's implications suggest that high debt levels should be reduced to optimize capital structure and that policies should be implemented to enhance SOE performance through innovation and best practices. The findings contribute to the ongoing debate on public sector reforms and provide a basis for further research in this area.

The Impact of Financial Literacy on Saving Habits among Malaysian Youth: A Gender-Based Analysis

This study examines the financial literacy and saving habits of Malaysia’s youth, with a particular focus on gender-based disparities and their implications. Recent reports highlighted a lot of young Malaysian’s struggles in terms of financial management, including high debt levels and inadequate savings among youth due to low financial literacy. Gender differences in financial literacy have been well documented, with men typically demonstrating higher levels of confidence and understanding in this area. Hence, this study aims to evaluate the saving habits and financial literacy levels of young Malaysians by looking at these factors via a gender lens. The research utilises a quantitative approach, using an online survey to gather information from 332 participants who are under 30 years old. SPSS was used to analyse the data, and descriptive statistics were used to discuss and summarise the results. The respondents’ saving habits and financial literacy were assessed using Likert-scale questions. A regression and correlation analysis were conducted to investigate the relationship between saving habits and financial literacy. The findings suggest that young people in Malaysia are usually quite financially literate; however, there are still gaps in their knowledge of advanced financial instruments. The majority of respondents have good saving habits; nonetheless, there are clear gender disparities, with males rating their financial literacy higher than women, especially when it comes to budgeting and investing. Regression analysis reveals a moderately positive correlation between financial literacy and saving habits, with financial literacy accounting for approximately 26.5% of the variance in saving habits. It appears that while financial literacy influences saving behaviour, there were fewer obvious gender variations in saving behaviours, suggesting that both genders engage in similar saving practices. These findings highlight the need for improved financial education to address identified gaps and promote better financial management for Malaysia’s youth.

The Effect Of Leverage, Company Size, Company Risk On Tax Avoidance In 2020-2022

The aim of this research is to see the effect of leverage, company size and company risk on tax avoidance. In this research, 18 companies were selected using purposive sampling criteria with a total of 54 objects studied in manufacturing companies in the raw materials sector during the period 2020 to 2022. The data used is secondary data in the form of financial reports obtained from the website www.idx.co .id was measured using the SPSS27 research tool with multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this research show that the variables leverage, company size and company risk have a positive and significant effect on tax avoidance. The R Square value is 44.8% of the variables leverage, company size and company risk, while the remaining 55.2% is influenced by variables outside this research. This research can provide insights and considerations for companies, it is recommended that they be careful in making decisions regarding increasing debt. This is because high debt can create risks that can result in companies facing potential bankruptcy and tax avoidance practices. Keywords : Leverage, Company Size, Company Risk and Tax Avoidance

Debt Crises, Fast and Slow

Abstract We build a dynamic model where the economy is vulnerable to belief-driven slow-moving debt crises at intermediate debt levels, and rollover crises at both low and high debt levels. Vis-à-vis the threat of slow-moving crises, countercyclical deficits generally welfare-dominate debt reduction policies. In a recession, optimizing governments only deleverage if debt is close to the threshold below which belief-driven slow-moving crises can no longer occur. The welfare benefits from deleveraging instead dominate if governments are concerned with losing market access even at low debt levels. Long bond maturities may fully eliminate belief-driven rollover crises but not slow-moving ones.

The macroeconomics of establishing a basic income grant in South Africa

AbstractThis paper quantifies the effect of fiscal transfers on the trade‐off between social relief and debt accumulation and discusses the economic growth and fiscal implications of different combinations of expanded social support and funding choices. Given South Africa's already high level of public debt, the opportunity to fund a basic income grant through higher debt is limited. Using a general equilibrium model, the paper shows that extending the social relief of distress grant could be fiscally feasible provided taxes rise to fund such a programme. Implementing such a policy would, however, have a contractionary impact on the economy. A larger basic income grant (even at the level of the food poverty line) would threaten fiscal sustainability as it would require large tax increases that would crowd‐out consumption and investment. The model results show that sustainably expanding social transfers requires structurally higher growth, which necessitates growth‐enhancing reforms that crowd‐in the private sector through, for example, relieving the energy constraint, increasing government infrastructure investment and expanding employment programmes.

Dynamic Stability of Public Debt: Evidence from the Eurozone Countries

This paper investigates the dynamic stability of public debt and its solvency condition in the face of crisis periods (1980–2021) in a sample of 11 euro-area countries. The focus is on the feedback loop between the dynamic stability of public debt and interest rates, discounted by economic growth, in conjunction with budget deficits during tranquil and turbulent periods. Using the GMM panel dynamic model, the results show that dynamic stability was the case before the global financial crisis (GFC), while from GFC to the pandemic, dynamic instability prevailed and persisted in the evolution of public debt. Furthermore, panel threshold estimates show that dynamic instability of debt starts to violate the solvency condition when the borrowing cost is above 3.29%, becomes even stronger when it is above 4.39%, and exerts even more pressure when the level of debt is greater than 91%. However, the debt sustainability condition reverses course when economic growth is higher than 3.4%. The main policy implication drawn from the results is that low interest rates can create a self-reinforcing loop of high debt, which itself is a serious matter for public authorities when designing economic policies.

From Borrowing to Growth: Ghana’s Public Debt Strategy within its Financial Development Trajectory

Purpose: The study examined the implications of Ghana’s soaring public debt on its financial development, specifically its banking behaviour. Given Ghana’s alarming public debt of 78.3% of GDP by 2022 and previous periods of high public debt correlating to global economic downturns, understanding this relationship is vital for both local and international policymakers.
 Methodology: The research employs annual growth rates of various financial development indicators (e.g, Ease of Doing Business Index and Digital Transaction Index) and measures public debt using the Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio. Advanced econometric methods were used to ensure data accuracy, including cointegration, error correction models, and tests like Dickey-Fuller, Augmented Dickey-Fuller, and Sargan-Rhargava Durbin-Watson.
 Findings: The ADF test confirmed the stationarity of all study variables. Cointegration tests show a long-term equilibrium relationship among the variables. In the short run, a positive and significant relationship exists between variables such as Domestic Bank Intermediation, Financial Development, and Public Debt. Regression outcomes indicate that as Public Debt escalates, there’s an associated increase in Financial Development in Ghana.
 Implications: These findings reveal that despite the potential pitfalls of high public debt, a complex dynamic exists where increasing public debt positively correlates with financial development in Ghana’s short run. This insight can be valuable for policymakers in balancing infrastructural investments, social programs, fiscal sustainability, and financial growth, especially for developing nations facing similar debt scenarios.
 Originality: This study offers a unique, in-depth three-decade analysis (1992-2022) on the relationship between Ghana’s public debt and banking behaviour. It is an empirical precedent for other nations to understand the intricate relationships between public debt and financial growth.

The Impact of Tax Cuts on Exchange Rate Changes in The Context of High Inflation and High Debt: Evidence from The UK "Mini-Budget"

This research mainly focuses on the exchange rate fluctuations after the British government of Liz Truss announced to introduce the tax reduction policies, mini-budget. This budget covers the abolition of the highest 45% income tax rate, turning down the income tax and partial stamp duty, aiming to provide greater tax relief to the wealthy to encourage investment and consumption. Based on the SVAR, in the case of high inflation and high debt, tax reduction policies may further intensify the pressure of currency depreciation, leading to a significant decline in the exchange rate. In addition, this paper found that fiscal expenditures and inflation rate have significant and persistent impact on the exchange rate. The conclusion of this research emphasizes that the tax reduction policies in the context of high inflation and high debt will exacerbate the exchange rate fluctuations, which has important implications for policy makers and market participants. In the current highly unstable global economy, a deep understanding of the impact of tax reduction policies on the money market is crucial for stabilizing the economy and monetary system.

Public Debt and Economic Growth after Covid-19 in Europe: Challenges and Policy Implications

The Covid-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on European economies, leading to a significant increase in public debt levels. This paper examines the challenges and policy implications of managing public debt and fostering economic growth in Europe post-Covid-19. It provides a conceptual framework by defining and measuring public debt, exploring the relationship between public debt and economic growth, and highlighting the role of public debt in times of crisis. The paper analyzes the impact of Covid-19 on public debt in Europe, including the fiscal response, debt accumulation, and reasons for increased debt levels. It further discusses the challenges posed by high public debt, such as debt sustainability, crowding out private investment, financial stability risks, and constraints on future fiscal policy.
 
 The study then presents policy implications for balancing public debt and economic growth, including fiscal consolidation measures, long-term debt management strategies, prioritizing public investments, implementing structural reforms, considering monetary policy, and fostering international cooperation. Additionally, the paper provides case studies of selected European countries, evaluating their approaches, assessing policy effectiveness, and drawing key lessons and best practices. Finally, the paper concludes with a summary of key findings, policy recommendations for European governments, and suggestions for future research directions.

The impact of Board Experience on Firm Performance: Evidence from Pakistan

This study shows that how Board experience as corporate governance Facets effect on firm performance (Evidence from Pakistan). The sample size of the study was 100 non-financial companies listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange selected through purposive sampling technique while covering the time period from 2010 to 2019. The result concluded that a significant relationship exists between Board working Experience (BWE) and Firm Performance. The result shows that increase the percentage of board working experience can better monitor all the activities of firms and avoid the firms to get higher debts which leads to better firm performance and mitigate the Effect of Default Risk. The importance of the study is that it highlights the different dimensions of female Board Member as corporate Governance facets which may be useful for investors before making any investment decisions. The existing literature is mostly related to the developed countries. In this view, this study may also have enhanced contribution in the literature because its results pertain to an emerging economy of Pakistan.

Mayday! Mayday! The airlines stock returns are failing. Analysis of the impact of Russia–Ukraine war

PurposeThis paper investigates the short-term market impact of the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine (February 24, 2022) on a set of airline stocks listed.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses an event study methodology, cross-section analyses and interaction effects to study the effect of the war on airline stock prices and firm-specific characteristics that explain the cumulative abnormal return.FindingsThe authors observe a negative and statistically significant stock price reaction at and around the beginning of the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine, for 74 listed airlines. These results are consistent with investment portfolio rebalancing and asset pricing perspective. Moreover, this study's results show a higher negative stock market reaction for airlines based in Europe. Empirical evidence suggests the existence of a “proximity penalty” for European companies. Finally, this study's results provide insights into which airline-specific characteristics emerge as value drivers. Larger, well-capitalized (high liquidity and low debt) and profitable airlines firms with less institutional ownership have superior stock market returns and show more able to handle with the losses resulting from the war.Originality/valueThis paper fills a gap in the literature about the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war on the airline industry.

Temporal trends in sleep pattern among Chinese adults between 2010 and 2018: findings from five consecutive nationally representative surveys

ObjectivesThis study aimed to comprehensively analyze the time trends in average sleep duration and prevalence of short sleep, poor sleep quality, and high sleep debt among Chinese adults. Study designThis was a cross-sectional study. MethodsThe study used nationally representative data from Chinese Family Panel Survey (CFPS) among adults aged ≥18 years. Linear regression and logistic regression were used to calculate P-values for trends across waves, and absolute difference in prevalences were calculated by linear regression. Poisson regression analysis was used to calculate the prevalence ratios of sleep-related problems. ResultsIn 2018, the estimated average sleep duration in adults was 7.6 h/d. A shorter sleep duration, higher proportion of short sleep, and poor sleep quality were observed in people aged ≥65 years, women, people with primary school education or below, and residents in Liaoning province. The average sleep duration slightly decreased from 8.2 h/d in 2010 to 7.6 h/d in 2016, and then remained stable from 2016 to 2018. The prevalence of short sleep duration has markedly increased from 11.8% in 2010 to 24.1% in 2016, and then there was a decline in prevalence from 2016 to 2018, although this decrease was not significant. The prevalence of high sleep debt among employed people increased from 6.2% in 2010 to 8.6% in 2018 (absolute difference, 2.4 p.p; P trend = 0.063). In addition, the prevalence of poor sleep quality increased from 15.6% in 2012 to 21.3% in 2018 (absolute difference of 5.7 p.p; P trend<0.001). For all the sleep-related variables, the degree of changes varied by sociodemographic subgroups. ConclusionsIn this nationally representative survey of the Chinese population, the average sleep duration slightly decreased from 2010 to 2016, and then remained stable from 2016 to 2018. Poor sleep quality, and high sleep debt increased among most of the sociodemographic subgroups. Future studies are needed to understand the drivers of changes in sleep health among Chinese adults.

Threats and the Public Constraint on Military Spending

AbstractThe public places an important constraint on funding security in Europe, and austerity risks making the constraint tighter. Several recent studies show that curtailing military spending is a popular way to reduce debt in Europe. Yet it remains unclear if military spending aversion persists when threats are salient. We fielded an original survey experiment in Italy weeks before the Russian invasion of Ukraine to examine how information about security threats influences military spending preferences and fiscal trade-offs. We found that information about threats increases support for military spending. To validate the survey experiment, we recontacted and remeasured our respondent's preferences three weeks after Russia's invasion and find evidence consistent with our initial experiment. Our findings suggest that, while public opposition to military spending remains high in Italy, external threats dampen the public's opposition to military spending, even under high debt burdens.

The limits of limitless debt

While low real interest rates and issuing public debt in fiat money safeguard against rising sovereign debt-to-GDP ratios, evidence shows that high debt often precedes default, and credit spreads may not signal imminent risk.We offer a simple way to model the trade-offs using local martingales. On the one hand, it acknowledges that large debt overhangs tend to raise default risks. On the other hand, it allows sovereigns to roll over debt regardless of long-term fiscal solvency. The combination allows credit spreads to stay very low for decades, eventually spiral out of control and trigger a default. Hence, neither the reassurance of low spreads nor the alarm from growing overhang should automatically prevail.To illustrate the trade-offs, we review the ebb and flow of US sovereign debt burdens since World War II. Between record peacetime debt-to-GDP ratios and weakened fiscal discipline, an exemplary double-or-triple-A credit rating for the US no longer seems justified. Moreover, the current outlook is poor, with debt growing much faster than GDP and scant prospects of contraction.

Corporate Financial Risk from the Perspective of Financing Structure: Evidence from Sunac China

With the rapid development of the real estate economy, the importance of financial risk analysis for the survival and development of enterprises has become increasingly apparent. In addition, it has also attracted many concerns from the academic and industry circles. On this bais, this study initially compiles the sources and sums of money used over the previous five years to develop China's real estate, and extensively searches and organizes China's real estate policies. Taking Sunac China as an example, by analyzing Sunac China's financial statements to judge its financing characteristics and structure, according to research, China's biggest issues with real estate financing are that China's real estate enterprises generally have high debt ratios, single financing models and imperfect systems. Moreover, suggestions are put forward on improving real estate finance legislation and optimizing enterprise management capabilities. It is hoped that these results can provide reference opinions for promoting the diversified development of real estate financing models.

Unveiling the Role of Investment Tangibility on Financial Leverage: Insights from African-Listed Firms

The asset structure of a firm plays a pivotal role in determining its leverage. A higher proportion of physical assets is often associated with high debt ratios. This study explores the impact of investment tangibility on financial leverage, examining both tangible and intangible investments. Using a dynamic panel data model estimated through the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM), we analyse a dataset encompassing 815 non-financial listed firms from 22 African stock markets. The results show that African firms have higher inclinations to invest in physical assets. We found a statistically significant negative relationship between leverage and tangible and intangible investments. The findings indicate that African firms tend to maintain lower leverages regardless of whether they invest in tangible or intangible assets. The observed relationship aligns with the hypothesis that high-growth firms, in their expansion efforts, strategically tend to opt for low debt to mitigate the agency costs associated with debt and to help prevent underinvestment. This outcome underscores the interconnected nature of financing and investment decisions. This research contributes to the literature on financial leverage and investment by dissecting investments into tangible and non-tangible components and highlighting their distinct impacts on leverage. Moreover, it provides empirical evidence for previously unexplored African firms, shedding light on the reasons behind the relatively low leverage levels observed in African firms.

Government debt and fiscal multipliers in the era of population aging

Abstract Over the past decade, the most salient changes in macroeconomic conditions in developed economies have included rising government debt and population aging, which are strongly correlated with each other. This paper investigates fiscal multipliers by disentangling the effects of population aging from those of government debt. Our analysis, which uses heterogeneous panel data from 24 OECD economies, shows that while fiscal policy is ineffective for economies with high-debt levels, it is effective for economies with low-debt levels. Furthermore, the estimation results reveal that fiscal policy is ineffective for aged economies, regardless of the level of government debt. However, for nonaged economies, while fiscal policy leads to negative effects on output in times of high debt, its positive effects are more pronounced in times of low debt. Our results suggest that, for the effective implementation of fiscal stimulus policies, policy-based stimulation of employment in the labor market is essential.

Interactive effects of financial leverage with asset-light strategies: The agency theory perspective

Existing research has overlooked the interaction of debt in the financial assessment of asset-light strategies. This research assesses how financial leverage (high or low long-term debt) interacts with management contracts as well as franchising to exert an impact on the value of hotel companies. Panel data of 195 observations in 2007–2019 were analysed with ordinary least square, robust regression, stepwise regression and quantile regression. The research findings clarify the impacts of asset-light strategies by differentiating the previously discovered U-shaped impact into a U-shape for management contracts and an inverted U-shape for franchising. Furthermore, when financial leverage is introduced, the above relationships hold at a low leverage level; but are weakened at a high level. Lastly, these U-shapes are asymmetrical, being more responsive to asset-light strategies than when there is no leverage interaction. This research hence clarifies agency costs and their relevance to asset-light strategies with varying financial leverage.

Public debt shocks and macroeconomic stabilization in Nigeria: A new Keynesian approach

The study examined the impact of public debt shocks on Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability. This study aimed to evaluate the role of increasing public debt on macroeconomic variables in Nigeria using a New Keynesian approach to evaluate the effect of both external and domestic debt on macroeconomic stability and the impact of debt service on revenue on Nigerian macroeconomic stability. The dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model was adopted as an analytical tool using the Bayesian approach in a Matlab R2021a in a Dynare 4.6.4 environment to determine the influence of public debt shock on macroeconomic stability in Nigeria. It was discovered that a positive relationship exists between output (economic growth) and foreign debt in Nigeria within the period under review. It was also found that debt service to revenue ratio, interest rate, and domestic debt have a negative relationship with output (economic growth). As a result, an increase in external debt will positively impact output (economic growth). In contrast, an increase in the debt service to revenue ratio, interest rate, and domestic debt will have a negative transmission effect on Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability. High debt service would impede growth by reducing public resources and productive investment that would otherwise be used to encourage growth. According to this result, external debt is the best option for capital projects rather than domestic debt, which is likely to affect the business environment negatively. This study is practically relevant to government, investors, scholars, and policymakers, especially those around fiscal policy, to guide them in advising the government on where to borrow for its capital projects when needed

PENGARUH CORPORATE GOVERNANCE TERHADAP CORPORATE FINANCIAL FRAUD PADA PERUSAHAAN MANUFAKTUR YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI

This study aims to determine the effect of board size, financial expertise, board independence, rationalization, female board, firm size, leverage ratio (LEV) and asset ratio (ROA) on corporate financial reporting in manufacturing companies listed on the Stock Exchange in 2016 - 2020 The sampling technique used is purposive sampling with a final sample of 80 companies. The analysis used in this research is descriptive statistics and panel regression. The results of this study indicate that the size of the board, financial expertise, board independence, rationalization, and do not have a significant effect on the size of the company's finances. While the financial board has a significant influence on fraud, which means a high number of company ownership can reduce the possibility of an incident, then the leverage ratio (LEV) indicates a high debt so there is a high probability of fraud in the company, assets (ROA) has a high positive significant influence ROA can become pressure for the company so that it is likely to take company actions.