High Crude Oil Prices Research Articles

Modelling the costs of energy crops: A case study of US corn and Brazilian sugar cane

High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the prospects of alternative fuels, such as biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of energy crops, drawing on the user's degree of belief about a series of parameters as an input. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of production constraints and experience on the costs of corn and sugar cane, which can then be converted to bioethanol. Land is a limited and heterogeneous resource: the crop cost model builds on the marginal land suitability, which is assumed to decrease as more land is taken into production, driving down the marginal crop yield. Also, the maximum achievable yield is increased over time by technological change, while the yield gap between the actual yield and the maximum yield decreases through improved management practices. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of producing corn and sugar cane, with a 90% confidence interval of 2.9–7.2$/GJ in 2030 for marginal corn costs, and 1.5–2.5$/GJ in 2030 for marginal sugar cane costs. The influence of each parameter on these supply costs is examined.

Did speculative activities contribute to high crude oil prices during 1993 to 2008?

By applying two nonlinear Granger causality testing methods and rolling window strategy to explore the relationship between speculative activities and crude oil prices, the unidirectional Granger causality from speculative activities to returns of crude oil prices during the high price phase is discovered. It is proved that speculative activities did contribute to high crude oil prices after the Asian financial crisis and OPEC's output cut in 1998. The unidirectional Granger causality from returns of crude oil prices to speculative activities is significant in general. But after 2000, with the sharp rise in crude oil prices, this unidirectional Granger causality became a complex nonlinear relationship, which cannot be detected by any linear Granger causality test.

Biodiesel production from residual oils recovered from spent bleaching earth

This work was to study technical and economic feasibilities of converting residual oils recovered from spent bleaching earth generated at soybean oil refineries into useable biodiesel. Experimental results showed that fatty acids in the SBE residual oil were hexadecenoic acid (58.19%), stearic acid (21.49%) and oleic acid (20.32%), which were similar to those of vegetable oils. The methyl ester conversion via a transesterification process gave a yield between 85 and 90%. The biodiesel qualities were in reasonable agreement with both EN 14214 and ASTM D6751 standards. A preliminary financial analysis showed that the production cost of biodiesel from SBE oils was significantly lower than the pre-tax price of fossil diesel or those made of vegetable oils or waste cooking oils. The effects of the crude oil price and the investment on the production cost and the investment return period were also conducted. The result showed that the investment would return faster at higher crude oil price.

Socio-economic aspects of different biofuel development pathways

There are several policy drivers for biofuels on a larger scale in the EU transport sector, including increased security of energy supply, reduced emission of greenhouse gases (GHG), and new markets for the agricultural sector. The purpose of this socio-economic cost analysis is to provide an overview of the costs of meeting EU biofuels targets, taking into account several external costs and benefits. Biofuels are generally more expensive than traditional fossil fuels, but the expected increasing value of GHG emission reductions will over time reduce the cost gap. High crude oil prices significantly improve the economic benefit of biofuels, but increased demand for biomass for energy purposes is likely to increase the price of biofuels feedstock and biofuels costs. The key question is to what extent increasing oil prices will be passed on to biofuels costs. Socio-economic least costs for biofuels production require a market with a clear pricing of GHG emissions to ensure that this factor is included in the decision-making of actors in all links of the fuel chain.

Overview of High-Temperature Fischer−Tropsch Gasoline and Diesel Quality

As stricter environmental legislative requirements are enforced and the availability of quality crude oil reduces, traditional crude oil refining is continuously being optimized to produce fuels of appropriate quality. Consequently, increasing operating costs put pressure on refining margins, and it remains a challenge to convert all refinery streams into products with acceptable qualities at a reasonable return. Furthermore, energy security and energy diversification together with high crude oil prices have spurred an increased focus on the manufacturing of synthetic fuels and chemicals from gas, coal, and other sources. Fischer−Tropsch (FT), a synthetic technology practiced by Sasol, is a prominent alternative route for the production of synthetic fuels and chemicals. Sasol, in South Africa, uses the high-temperature Fischer−Tropsch (HTFT) process with coal as feedstock to produce a range of synthetic fuels, which includes liquid petroleum gas (LPG), gasoline, kerosene, diesel, heating fuels, and chemicals. The South African production facility at Secunda represents the largest commercial facility of this type in the world. FT fuels are characterized by their very consistent quality. These fuels contain extremely low sulfur levels (<5 ppm), low levels of nitrogen-containing compounds, low polynuclear aromatics, olefins, oxygenates, and in the case of diesel, mostly linear hydrocarbons with a low degree of branching. These fuels can significantly contribute to meeting future energy security and demands. For more than 50 years, nearly 50% of South Africa’s densely populated inland area has been supplied with gasoline and diesel from the Sasol Fischer−Tropsch plants. This paper presents an overview of the current properties of Sasol HTFT synthetic gasoline and diesel.

Design Optimization of Wind Power Planning for a Country With Low–Medium-Wind-Speed Profile

The emerging energy crisis resulting from a high price of crude oil has drawn attention about renewable energy all over the world. Thailand is a developing country located at the heart of Southeast Asia, with about 66 million of population as of 2006. The electricity supply industry structure under the government of Thailand has been managed by the Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, the Metropolitan Electricity Authority, and the Provincial Electricity Authority for almost 50 years. According to the 2004 Power Development Plan, the country would have generation reserve at a marginal of 15%. Due to the rapid economic growth and difficulty in building new centralized generating facilities, this has the potential to create a security issue of electricity energy shortage and may develop a severe system blackout. Renewable energy issues have been widely discussed and debated over the country. Although solar energy is the most prominent renewable energy source due to the appropriate geographic of Thailand, it is still considered as a low-density energy source which requires a large area of installation. Therefore, for the long-term investment, wind power seems to be a good candidate because it is quick to install, needs no fuel cost, and is environment friendly. Therefore, this paper investigates the impact of the penetration level of wind power generation to be integrated into the Thailand system. System stability has been observed in various system configuration changes due to different control strategies of wind farms. The economic analysis of wind-farm investment has been also considered.

Modelling the costs of non-conventional oil: A case study of Canadian bitumen

High crude oil prices, uncertainties about the consequences of climate change and the eventual decline of conventional oil production raise the issue of alternative fuels, such as non-conventional oil and biofuels. This paper describes a simple probabilistic model of the costs of non-conventional oil, including the role of learning-by-doing in driving down costs. This forward-looking analysis quantifies the effects of both learning and production constraints on the costs of supplying bitumen, which can then be upgraded into synthetic crude oil, a substitute to conventional oil. The results show large uncertainties in the future costs of supplying bitumen from Canadian oil sands deposits, with a 90% confidence interval of $7–12 in 2030, and $6–15 in 2060 (2005 US$). The influence of each parameter on the supply costs is examined, with the minimum supply cost, the learning rate (LR), and the depletion curve exponent having the largest influence. Over time, the influence of the LR on the supply costs decreases, while the influence of the depletion curve exponent increases.

RESEARCH ON RELEASE OF TRACE ELEMENTS AT RETORTING OF HUADIAN OIL SHALE

Oil shale is abundant in the world. Today, the industry of oil shale retorting for producing shale oil is developing owing to high price of crude oil in the world. In order to study migratory behavior of trace elements in oil shale at retorting, tests were performed in laboratory with oil shale of the Huadian deposit of China at different temperatures from 360 to 560 °C. Trace elements Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni, P, Pb, Sr, Ti, V, Y present in oil shale and shale char were determined by inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectroscopy (ICP-AES). Hg and As were determined by atomic fluorescence spectroscopy (AFS). By comparing the content of trace elements in oil shale and shale char, distribution characteristics of trace elements at retorting were studied. The analysis of trace elements indicates that in comparison with the earth crust averages, oil shale samples are richer in some elements, including Mn (more than 30×), P (more than 6×), and Ti (more than 5×). The amounts of Ti, Ba, Co, Cr, Cu, Mn, and V are increased in shale char at retorting. Pb and Hg start to volatilize at 410 °C. Shale char is enriched with arsenic by about 50% at temperatures from 360 °C to 560 °C. Reducing atmosphere promotes the release of trace elements. The effect of heating rate on different elements was also studied in these experiments. For most of the elements, their release from oil shale can be promoted by higher heating rate and nitrogen atmosphere.

Inter-Comparison of the Long-Run Coefficients between the Both Prices of LNG and Crude Oil of Japan, EU and USA

The quantitative co-relationships between the time series of Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) CIF (Cost, Insurance and Freight) prices and those of crude oil prices were estimated for Japan, EU and USA based on the monthly price data in the time period from early of 1998 to 2006 of the three regional markets. Since both prices of LNG CIF and crude oil appear to be non-stationary, the cointegration and the Error Correction Model (ECM) techniques were applied to obtain the long-run elasticity coefficients between both prices of LNG CIF and crude oil for these three markets. The obtained results suggest that 100 percent changes of the crude oil prices of Japan, EU and USA have 49 percent, 76 percent and 96 percent impacts on the respective LNG CIF prices in a long term when the crude oil price in a relative high era. The obtained long-run elasticity coefficients can be used to explain the different price changes of LNG CIF in each market with responding to dramatically changing high crude oil price in recent years.

Catalyst in Basic Oleochemicals

Currently Indonesia is the world largest palm oil producer with production volume reaching 16 million tones per annum. The high crude oil and ethylene prices in the last 3 – 4 years contribute to the healthy demand growth for basic oleochemicals: fatty acids and fatty alcohols. Oleochemicals are starting to replace crude oil derived products in various applications. As widely practiced in petrochemical industry, catalyst plays a very important role in the production of basic oleochemicals. Catalytic reactions are abound in the production of oleochemicals: Nickel based catalysts are used in the hydrogenation of unsaturated fatty acids; sodium methylate catalyst in the transesterification of triglycerides; sulfonic based polystyrene resin catalyst in esterification of fatty acids; and copper chromite/copper zinc catalyst in the high pressure hydrogenation of methyl esters or fatty acids to produce fatty alcohols. To maintain long catalyst life, it is crucial to ensure the absence of catalyst poisons and inhibitors in the feed. The preparation methods of nickel and copper chromite catalysts are as follows: precipitation, filtration, drying, and calcinations. Sodium methylate is derived from direct reaction of sodium metal and methanol under inert gas. The sulfonic based polystyrene resin is derived from sulfonation of polystyrene crosslinked with di-vinyl-benzene. © 2007 by Authors, Published by BCREC Group. This is an open access article under the CC BY-SA License (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)

Life cycle cost analysis of alternative vehicles and fuels in Thailand

High crude oil prices and pollution problems have drawn attention to alternative vehicle technologies and fuels for the transportation sector. The question is: What are the benefits/costs of these technologies for society? To answer this question in a quantitative way, a web-based model ( http://vehiclesandfuels.memebot.com) has been developed to calculate the societal life cycle costs, the consumer life cycle costs and the tax for different vehicle technologies. By comparing these costs it is possible to draw conclusions about the social benefit and the related tax structure. The model should help to guide decisions toward optimality, which refers to maximum social benefit. The model was applied to the case of Thailand. The life cycle cost of 13 different alternative vehicle technologies in Thailand have been calculated and the tax structure analyzed.

Ethanol Expansion in the Food versus Fuel Debate: How Will Developing Countries Fare?

This paper examines the impact of ethanol expansion in the United States, brought about by higher crude oil prices, on agricultural commodity prices. Given the United States's stature as a major producer and exporter of many agricultural commodities, the resulting increase in commodity prices has spillover effects into the global market. Using the price changes estimated within a multi-commodity, multi-country agricultural modeling system, this paper attempts to show how an increase in world commodity prices would affect the costs of food baskets around the world and how higher food costs will impact food security, particularly in developing countries. In general, we find that countries where corn is the major food grain experience larger increases in food basket cost while countries where rice is the major food grain have smaller food basket cost increases. Countries where wheat and/or sorghum are the major food grains fall in between. Consequently, the highest percentage increases are seen in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America where food basket costs are estimated to increase by at least 10%. The lowest percentage increases are seen in Southeast Asia, with cost increases of less than 2.5%.

Conventional Crude Oil Resources of the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin

Abstract This paper provides estimates of "in place" and recoverable conventional light and heavy crude oil resources for the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin. Components of the oil resource base considered are currently established reserves, resources available through infill drilling and the application of enhanced recovery techniques in currently established pools, extensions to these pools and new pools, which available geological and statistical information indicates could reasonably be expected to be discovered in the future. The Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) last made an estimate of Western Canadian conventional light crude oil resources in 1988(1). Estimates of conventional heavy crude oil resources have been previously reported in the reports "Canadian Energy Supply and Demand" prepared by staff of the National Energy Board (NEB)(2, 3). Recently, techno logical progress, and in particular 'the application of horizontal drilling, has, led, to the potential for significant improvements in recovery efficiencies for conventional oil. This paper reviews and updates the previous resource assessments by NEB staff in light of the recent technological advances. Introduction The Western Canada Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) occupies an area of 1.4 million square kilometres of southwestern Manitoba, southern Saskatchewan, Alberta, northeastern British Columbia and the southwest corner of the Northwest Territories (Figure 1). Petroleum resources of the basin range from natural gas at the light end of the spectrum through conventional crude oil to bitumen, 'which is also referred to as unconventional oil. Conventional crude oil is that portion of this spectrum which exists in the reservoir in the liquid state and is sufficiently fluid that it flows naturally from the reservoir into a well bore. We adopt the light and heavy conventional crude oil categories of the provincial agencies but classify as light crude oil that designated as medium by the Alberta Energy and Utilities Board (AEUB), and classify as heavy crude oil that designated as medium by the Saskatchewan Department of Energy and Mines. Costs of extraction and crude oil prices are important determinants in the assessment of recoverable crude oil resources(4). However, 'we avoid focussing on the economic aspects of crude oil recovery by assuming a high crude oil price, in the order of $35(Cdn.) per barrel, so that estimates of recoverable resources are not constrained by price considerations. The assessment uses historical data based on definitions for reserves and resources that have been traditionally used by the NEB and the provincial agencies. These definitions differ from those given in the monograph recently published by The etroleum Society(5). FIGURE 1 Available In Full Paper. Categories of Resources We define the conventional crude oil resource base of the WCSB as the volume of conventional crude oil originally in place in the basin before any production. This crude oil resource base can be divided into discovered and undiscovered resources(Figure 2). Discovered resources are that part of the resource base that has been proven by drilling, testing or production.

New Lz-210 Zeolites Produce Superior Fcc Performance

Introduction The most important aspect of a catalytic process is usually the catalyst. Fluid catalytic cracking is no exception to the rule. Originally. FCC catalysts were amorphous in nature and low in activity. High conversions and gasoline yields were achievedwith the use of recycle (Fig. 1). Crystalline molecule sieves or the zeolite promoted catalysts were introduced in fluid cracking units in 1963–1964 with spectacular results. Nearly all of these early products contained the Type X sieve, though ultra-stable or US-Y sieves were briefly used. The latter were found to be more suitable for hydrocracking applications. Type X zeolites, patented by Union Carbide, belong to the faujasite family and have a silica/alumina ratio of 2–3 to 1. These early products allowed refiners to cut recycle and increase fresh feed rates without losing conversion. Laboratory data and commercial results indicated the molecular sieves had an activity that was at least an order of magnitude greater than the amorphous catalysts they replaced. Figure 2 shows the benefits of high catalyst activity. With the activity problem essentially solved for gas oil cracking operations, the focus shifted toward stability and selectivity. Here, the answer proved to be the Type Y zeolite, also developed by Union Carbide. It has the same proven faujasite structure as the Type X sieve, but has a silica/alumina ratio of 3–6 to 1. Figure 3 illustrates the faujasite structure with the chemical formulas for each sieve type. The Type Y zeolite has been the workhorse in FCC processing for the last 17 years but the composition of the Y sieves has evolved considerably over that time. Early silica/alumina ratios were about 3.8 to 1, just barely in the Y range. By 1975 this ratio was up to the typical values found today (about 5 to 1). Most of the Y zeolites originally used were fully rare-earth-exchanged; i.e. the rare earths replaced the sodium associated with the crystalline structure. Maximum rare earth was used because it gave the highest zeolite stability. Catalyst manufacturers could use less sieve in their formulations to achieve a desired activity level and variations in starting Na-Y quality were overshadowed by the presence of rare earth. In refiner's terms, rare earths were the tetraethyl lead of the catalyst business. Fully-exchanged FCC catalysts were the predominate choice right up to the 1980s. The high price of crude oil in the late 70s and early 80s made it attractive to process resid. This put a premium on coke selectivity. Catalyst manufacturers responded by removing some of the rare earth from the zeolite. Figure 4 shows how the coke selectivity improves as rare earth in the zeolite declines. n the past few years, the need for higher FCC gasoline octanes due to the removal of lead from the gasoline pool, has led catalyst suppliers to products with higher starting silica/ alumina ratios. The off-the-shelf technology in this area was the ultra-stable Y or US-Y zeolites discovered some 20 years earlier.

A Rod Pumping System To Reduce Lifting Costs

Rising costs of artificial lift operations are a continuing concern to oil producers in maintaining efficient and profitable performance. A new long-stroke sucker rod pumping system has been developed to minimize the impact of these rising costs. This new system results from a broad development project based on system design considerations having major influence on overall cost effectiveness of the system. The basis of these evaluations is discussed, resulting equipment design is described, and field operating results are presented. Performance results to date confirm achievement of reduced overall operating costs as a result of the performance characteristics of this system.

Thermal Recovery at North Tisdale Field, Wyoming

In the secondary recovery process used in this field, water was injected into combustion zones during active burning and after air injection had ceased. Combustion and steam stimulation treatments were also used at producing wells to improve sweep efficiency and production rates. Results indicated that higher crude oil prices are needed to make thermal recovery processes economic at Tisdale. Introduction The forward in-situ combustion process was the most important of several thermal methods applied at North Tisdale field, north central Wyoming. Operationally, a foward combustion process is basically a gas injection project. Air is usually injected at compressor capacity or at maximum permissible pressures. Combustion zones are permissible pressures. Combustion zones are established near the injection wells and propagated through the formation by continued injection of air, thus forcing formation fluids toward producing wells. The process is far from being clearly understood. However, consider-considerable progress has been made toward demonstrating its technical and practical feasibility . Continental Oil Co. tested air injectivity at North Tisdale field in 1957 and performed the first fireflood ignition in Wyoming in May, 1959. Envisioned in the pilot test was a basic two-step process in which first pilot test was a basic two-step process in which first air would be injected, then water would be injected into the burned zones to create an in-situ hot waterflood and steam drive. This would utilize the residual heat behind the combustion front and improve the economics of oil displacement. Other modifications to the basic process, such as simultaneous or cyclic injection of air and water, were also envisioned in the original proposal. These methods were developed as the project proceeded. Combustion and steam stimulation treatments were also used at producing wells during the project. The Reservoir The Curtis sand reservoir was discovered in June, 1952. Development continued during 1953 and 1954 on a 10-acre pattern that was somewhat irregular because of the rough terrain. Figs. 1 and 2 show the well locations. After 5 1/2-in. J-55 STC casing was set on top of the sand, the wells were completed by drilling 20 to 40 ft into the pay with cable tools and shooting with nitroglycerin. The reservoir lies on top of a sightly arched and tilted water table that dips about 3 degrees to the north. Sand depth varies from 776 to 1,090 ft in the productive area. Gross sand thickness is about 100 ft, productive area. Gross sand thickness is about 100 ft, and average net effective pay in the developed area is about 50 ft. The original oil content was about 15 million bbl or 1,230 bbl/acre-ft. The Curtis sand is a member of the Crow Mountain formation of the Triassic period. It is a porous, occasionally friable, orange-and-white sandstone with a field average permeability of 1,034 md, a porosity of 24.5 percent, and initial saturations of 64.6 percent oil and 35.4 percent water. The sour crude oil has a gravity of 21 degrees API and a viscosity of 175 cp at the original reservoir conditions of 290 psig and 73 degrees F. Why Thermal Recovery Was Selected Water cuts had increased to 50 percent by the time the original development was completed. The primary producing rate had declined from a peak of primary producing rate had declined from a peak of 312 BOPD to 180 BOPD by 1957, and it was estimated that less than 5.0 percent of the oil in place would be recovered economically. JPT P. 606