High Climatic Suitability Research Articles

Spatial prediction of risk areas for vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in the State of Paraná, southern Brazil.

After obtaining certification of the absence of transmission of the Trypanosoma cruzi by Triatoma infestans in 2006, other native species of protozoan vectors have been found in human dwellings within municipalities of the State of Paraná, Southern Brazil. However, the spatial distribution of T. cruzi vectors and how climatic and landscape combined variables explain the distribution are still poorly understood. The goal of this study was to predict the potential distribution of T. cruzi vectors as a proxy for Chagas disease transmission risk using Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) based on climatic and landscape variables. We hypothesize that ENM based on both climate and landscape variables are more powerful than climate-only or landscape-only models, and that this will be true independent of vector species. A total of 2,662 records of triatomines of five species were obtained by community-based entomological surveillance from 2007 to 2013. The species with the highest number of specimens was Panstrongylus megistus (73%; n = 1,943), followed by Panstrongylus geniculatus (15.4%; 411), Rhodnius neglectus (6.0%; 159), Triatoma sordida (4.5%; 119) and Rhodnius prolixus (1.1%; 30). Of the total, 71.9% were captured at the intradomicile. T. cruzi infection was observed in 19.7% of the 2,472 examined insects. ENMs were generated based on selected climate and landscape variables with 1 km2 spatial resolution. Zonal statistics were used for classifying the municipalities as to the risk of occurrence of synanthropic triatomines. The integrated analysis of the climate and landscape suitability on triatomines geographical distribution was powerful on generating good predictive models. Moreover, this showed that some municipalities in the northwest, north and northeast of the Paraná state have a higher risk of T. cruzi vector transmission. This occurs because those regions present high climatic and landscape suitability values for occurrence of their vectors. The frequent invasion of houses by infected triatomines clearly indicates a greater risk of transmission of T. cruzi to the inhabitants. More public health attention should be given in the northern areas of the State of Paraná, which presents high climate and landscape suitabilities for the disease vectors. In conclusion, our results–through spatial analysis and predictive maps–showed to be effective in identifying areas of potential distribution and, consequently, in the definition of strategic areas and actions to prevent new cases of Chagas' disease, reinforcing the need for continuous and robust surveillance in these areas.

Delineating limits: Confronting predicted climatic suitability to field performance in mistletoe populations

Abstract Biotic stressors such as hemiparasites have a profound impact on forest functioning. However, predicting the future incidence of these stressors on forests remains challenging because climate‐based distribution does not consider tree–hemiparasite interactions or the impacts of extreme climate events on stressors’ performance. We use species distribution models (SDMs) and ecophysiological and demographic field data to assess whether climatic suitability is a proxy for the performance of the hemiparasite mistletoe (Viscum album) in two forests with contrasting climatic conditions. Two host tree species representing wet‐cold (Scots pine) and dry‐warm (Aleppo pine) conditions were selected. We fitted SDMs based on climate variables, and measured different ecophysiological variables capturing cold‐ (photoinhibition) and drought tolerance (intrinsic water‐use efficiency, iWUE). We also assessed demographic variables related to seed germination and establishment rates of mistletoe through a translocation experiment. Species distribution models showed a high climatic suitability of mistletoe in both forests. Mistletoes living in the Scots pines site presented a higher cold tolerance, while those inhabiting the Aleppo pine site showed a higher iWUE. Seedlings coming from local seeds showed a lower mortality than seedlings coming from translocated seeds. Germination and seedling establishment showed temporal mismatches when comparing local and translocated seeds. Synthesis. Habitat suitability predicted by SDMs based on climate data and field performance were related in this mistletoe species. However, ecophysiological and demographic variables indicated a lower fitness of mistletoe in the dry‐warm site associated with drought stress. In conclusion, predicted climate suitability based on SDMs forecasts should be refined using field data on actual performance and considering plant‐to‐plant interactions and extreme climate events.

Historical and event-based bioclimatic suitability predicts regional forest vulnerability to compound effects of severe drought and bark beetle infestation.

Vulnerability to climate change, and particularly to climate extreme events, is expected to vary across species ranges. Thus, we need tools to standardize the variability in regional climatic legacy and extreme climate across populations and species. Extreme climate events (e.g., droughts) can erode populations close to the limits of species' climatic tolerance. Populations in climatic-core locations may also become vulnerable because they have developed a greater demand for resources (i.e., water) that cannot be enough satisfied during the periods of scarcity. These mechanisms can become exacerbated in tree populations when combined with antagonistic biotic interactions, such as insect infestation. We used climatic suitability indices derived from Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to standardize the climatic conditions experienced across Pinus edulis populations in southwestern North America, during a historical period (1972-2000) and during an extreme event (2001-2007), when the compound effect of hot drought and bark beetle infestation caused widespread die-off and mortality. Pinus edulis climatic suitability diminished dramatically during the die-off period, with remarkable variation between years. P.edulis die-off occurred mainly not just in sites that experienced lower climatic suitability during the drought but also where climatic suitability was higher during the historical period. The combined effect of historically high climatic suitability and a marked decrease in the climatic suitability during the drought best explained the range-wide mortality. Lagged effects of climatic suitability loss in previous years and co-occurrence of Juniperus monosperma also explained P.edulis die-off in particular years. Overall, the study shows that past climatic legacy, likely determining acclimation, together with competitive interactions plays a major role in responses to extreme drought. It also provides a new approach to standardize the magnitude of climatic variability across populations using SDMs, improving our capacity to predict population's or species' vulnerability to climatic change.

Quality Analysis Of Organic Rice Variety Mentik Susu And Sintanur Nutritional Approach

Organic rice production in Indonesia is increasing due to the tendency of consumers who start to consume healthy food and one of them is organic rice. Varieties cultivated by farmers in Lampung Province is mentik susu and sintanur based on high yields and climate suitability. The quality of organic rice can be known through nutritional approach. The purpose of this research is to analyze quality comparison of organic rice of mentik susu and sintanur varieties with nutritional approach. The research methodology used is laboratory research. Data analysis methods used to answer the objective of a proximate test to determine the nutrient content of organic rice in both varieties of mentik susu and sintanur. Nutritional content that is cultivated is carbohydrates, fats, proteins, water, fiber, and ash content. The result of the analysis shows that carbohydrate, protein, and nutrient content of organic rice of mentik susu variety was higher than sintanur varieties. While the fat content, water content, and ash content of organic rice varieties mentik susu is lower than the sintanur varieties. In general it can be concluded that the quality of organic rice varieties mentik susu better than sintanur varieties.

Glacial refugia and mid-Holocene expansion delineate the current distribution of Castanea sativa in Europe

Areas of Quaternary refugia for tree species have been mainly delineated based on fossil records and phylogeography, but niche modelling can provide useful complementary information. Here we use palaeodistribution modelling to test the main hypotheses about the distribution of Castanea sativa in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and the mid-Holocene in Europe. We computed distribution models for current climatic conditions using different methods, and projected them onto three climatic scenarios for the LGM and the mid-Holocene. The projections were validated with pollen and charcoal records. LGM refugia were suggested in the north of the Iberian, Italian and Balkan Peninsulas, and in northern Anatolia. The projections for the mid-Holocene indicated high climatic suitability and geographic expansion of the species range across southern Europe, including some areas where the species is nowadays considered as non-native. In general, our models are consistent with the patterns proposed with pollen and charcoal records, and partially also with phylogeographic information inferred from genetic data, suggesting that the most suitable areas for C. sativa were extended significantly during the mid-Holocene, but declined afterwards and lost connectivity. The projected patterns were compatible with existing palaeobotanical records of C. sativa and provide a spatially-explicit picture of the species past distribution.

Potential distribution of Mikania micrantha Kunth in India − evidence of climatic niche and biome shifts

Native to Latin America, Mikania micrantha is considered as one of the top invaders in the moist tropical zones of the Pacific and Asian countries, including India. This study was conducted with two specific objectives − first, to examine the niche and biome conservancy of M. micrantha between its native and Indian ranges and second, to understand the potential distribution of this invasive plant in India. Principal Component Analysis of climatic variables associated with known occurrences of M. micrantha in India and native ranges indicated significant shifts in climatic niche of M. micrantha in India. Temperature and precipitation seasonality were found to be the driving factors for the niche shift in India. Our study also revealed that in India M. micrantha invaded a novel biome viz. the temperate broadleaf and mixed forest, which was present but unoccupied in the native range. Given the climatic niche shift, both Indian and native occurrence data were used to model the potential distribution of this weed in India using MaxEnt. The predicted distribution identified that a larger extent of the Indian landmass is climatically suitable for M. micrantha growth. High climatic suitability of some of the urban centers of India adds to the risk of further spread of this plant into ‘still to be invaded’ areas. The niche and biome inconsistencies of M. micrantha in India highlight the need for further investigation of the underlying mechanisms and careful interpretation of its potential distribution.

Spatial distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in South American caecilians.

The amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is linked to population declines in anurans and salamanders globally. To date, however, few studies have attempted to screen Bd in live caecilians; Bd-positive caecilians have only been reported in Africa and French Guiana. Here, we performed a retrospective survey of museum preserved specimens to (1) describe spatial patterns of Bd infection in Gymnophiona across South America and (2) test whether areas of low climatic suitability for Bd in anurans predict Bd spatial epidemiology in caecilians. We used quantitative PCR to detect Bd in preserved caecilians collected over a 109 yr period, and performed autologistic regressions to test the effect of bioclimatic metrics of temperature and precipitation, vegetation density, and elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. We detected an overall Bd prevalence of 12.4%, with positive samples spanning the Uruguayan savanna, Brazil's Atlantic Forest, and the Amazon basin. Our autologistic models detected a strong effect of macroclimate, a weaker effect of vegetation density, and no effect of elevation on the likelihood of Bd occurrence. Although most of our Bd-positive records overlapped with reported areas of high climatic suitability for the fungus in the Neotropics, many of our new Bd-positive samples extend far into areas of poor suitability for Bd in anurans. Our results highlight an important gap in the study of amphibian chytridiomycosis: the potential negative impact of Bd on Neotropical caecilians and the hypothetical role of caecilians as Bd reservoirs.

Effect of Climate Change on Mediterranean Winter Ranges of Two Migratory Passerines.

We studied the effect of climate change on the distribution of two insectivorous passerines (the meadow pipit Anthus pratensis and the chiffchaff Phylloscopus collybita) in wintering grounds of the Western Mediterranean basin. In this region, precipitation and temperature can affect the distribution of these birds through direct (thermoregulation costs) or indirect effects (primary productivity). Thus, it can be postulated that projected climate changes in the region will affect the extent and suitability of their wintering grounds. We studied pipit and chiffchaff abundance in several hundred localities along a belt crossing Spain and Morocco and assessed the effects of climate and other geographical and habitat predictors on bird distribution. Multivariate analyses reported a positive effect of temperature on the present distribution of the two species, with an additional effect of precipitation on the meadow pipit. These climate variables were used with Maxent to model the occurrence probabilities of species using ring recoveries as presence data. Abundance and occupancy of the two species in the study localities adjusted to the distribution models, with more birds in sectors of high climate suitability. After validation, these models were used to forecast the distribution of climate suitability according to climate projections for 2050–2070 (temperature increase and precipitation reduction). Results show an expansion of climatically suitable sectors into the highlands by the effect of warming on the two species, and a retreat of the meadow pipit from southern sectors related to rain reduction. The predicted patterns show a mean increase in climate suitability for the two species due to the warming of the large highland expanses typical of the western Mediterranean.

Taxonomic identity of invasive rabbits in Cuba: first record of Eastern Cottontail, Sylvilagus floridanus (Mammalia: Lagomorpha)

In islands of the West Indian zoogeographical region, rabbits are not native, and wild populations are the result of introductions. Oryctolagus cuniculus is the only lagomorph listed among the introduced mammals of the Cuban archipelago. We analyzed specimens of wild rabbits and we report the occurrence of Sylvilagus floridanus for the first time in Cuba. Capture data suggest that their distribution is currently limited to the west-central region of the island. However, the niche models showed high climatic suitability throughout the majority of Cuba, suggesting a high expansion probability.

Assessing the Risk of Invasion by Tephritid Fruit Flies: Intraspecific Divergence Matters.

Widely distributed species often show strong phylogeographic structure, with lineages potentially adapted to different biotic and abiotic conditions. The success of an invasion process may thus depend on the intraspecific identity of the introduced propagules. However, pest risk analyses are usually performed without accounting for intraspecific diversity. In this study, we developed bioclimatic models using MaxEnt and boosted regression trees approaches, to predict the potential distribution in Europe of six economically important Tephritid pests (Ceratitis fasciventris (Bezzi), Bactrocera oleae (Rossi), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), Anastrepha fraterculus (Wiedemann), Rhagoletis pomonella (Walsh) and Bactrocera cucurbitae (Coquillet)). We considered intraspecific diversity in our risk analyses by independently modeling the distributions of conspecific lineages. The six species displayed different potential distributions in Europe. A strong signal of intraspecific climate envelope divergence was observed in most species. In some cases, conspecific lineages differed strongly in potential distributions suggesting that taxonomic resolution should be accounted for in pest risk analyses. No models (lineage- and species-based approaches) predicted high climatic suitability in the entire invaded range of B. oleae—the only species whose intraspecific identity of invading populations has been elucidated—in California. Host availability appears to play the most important role in shaping the geographic range of this specialist pest. However, climatic suitability values predicted by species-based models are correlated with population densities of B. oleae globally reported in California. Our study highlights how classical taxonomic boundaries may lead to under- or overestimation of the potential pest distributions and encourages accounting for intraspecific diversity when assessing the risk of biological invasion.

A climate change context for the decline of a foundation tree species in south-western Australia: insights from phylogeography and species distribution modelling.

A worldwide increase in tree decline and mortality has been linked to climate change and, where these represent foundation species, this can have important implications for ecosystem functions. This study tests a combined approach of phylogeographic analysis and species distribution modelling to provide a climate change context for an observed decline in crown health and an increase in mortality in Eucalyptus wandoo, an endemic tree of south-western Australia. Phylogeographic analyses were undertaken using restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis of chloroplast DNA in 26 populations across the species distribution. Parsimony analysis of haplotype relationships was conducted, a haplotype network was prepared, and haplotype and nucleotide diversity were calculated. Species distribution modelling was undertaken using Maxent models based on extant species occurrences and projected to climate models of the last glacial maximum (LGM). A structured pattern of diversity was identified, with the presence of two groups that followed a climatic gradient from mesic to semi-arid regions. Most populations were represented by a single haplotype, but many haplotypes were shared among populations, with some having widespread distributions. A putative refugial area with high haplotype diversity was identified at the centre of the species distribution. Species distribution modelling showed high climatic suitability at the LGM and high climatic stability in the central region where higher genetic diversity was found, and low suitability elsewhere, consistent with a pattern of range contraction. Combination of phylogeography and paleo-distribution modelling can provide an evolutionary context for climate-driven tree decline, as both can be used to cross-validate evidence for refugia and contraction under harsh climatic conditions. This approach identified a central refugial area in the test species E. wandoo, with more recent expansion into peripheral areas from where it had contracted at the LGM. This signature of contraction from lower rainfall areas is consistent with current observations of decline on the semi-arid margin of the range, and indicates low capacity to tolerate forecast climatic change. Identification of a paleo-historical context for current tree decline enables conservation interventions to focus on maintaining genetic diversity, which provides the evolutionary potential for adaptation to climate change.

黄山风景区旅游气候资源浅析

本文利用黄山光明顶气象站1956~2013年观测资料以及2006~2013年空气污染指数(API)，分析黄山风景区主要气候。其特点为：气温适宜、夏季凉爽，降水丰沛、气候湿润，风速偏大、风向多变。黄山旅游气候资源丰富，有云海、雨凇、雾凇、雪景等气象景观，在国内外山岳型景区中具有得天独厚的优势。景区年气候舒适日数达153.5 d，主要为3月下旬至11月上旬，从游客身体感受角度来说，适宜旅游的季节长。景区生态环境得天独厚，空气质量达优率近100%。春夏秋为黄山的旅游旺季，冬季虽气温较低，但因晴好天气多，游客出行方便，且易看见日出，此外也可饱览雨凇、雾凇、云雾、雪景等冬季独有的气象景观，因此应加大冬季旅游推介。未来黄山应深度开发和利用气候旅游资源，重点推介特色景观，优化季节性旅游产品结构，实现黄山风景区旅游业的可持续发展。 The climatic resources of tourism are analyzed by the meteorological data of Guangmingding station during 1956-2013 and the air pollution indexes (API) during 2006-2013 in Huangshan scenic area. The results show that the annual average temperature is suitable for tourism, and summer is cool; the precipitation is plentiful, and distribution of rain days is uniform; the wind speed is high and the wind direction is varied. The days of glaze, rime, cloud-sea and fog in wind half-year are comparatively more than in the summer half-year. Relatively suitable for tourism comfortable period begins in late-March, ends in early-November, and the appropriate tourism season is long. The air quality is good and has the unique advantages of ecotourism in Huangshan scenic area. With various climate patterns, diversified meteorological sceneries and a long tourist season, Hunagshan Scenic Area enjoys high climatic suitability for sightseeing tourism. According to different seasons, special tourism should be carried out. In order to promote the sustainable development of tourism activities in Hunagshan scenic area, it is necessary to fully exploit by careful planning and develop the off-season tourism products, to alter the traditional tourism destination image, to optimize tourism product structure, and to improve the defensive capabilities for severe weather.

Piñon–Juniper Reduction Increases Soil Water Availability of the Resource Growth Pool

Managers reduce piñon (Pinus spp.) and juniper (Juniperus spp.) trees that are encroaching on sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) communities to lower fuel loads and increase cover of desirable understory species. All plant species in these communities depend on soil water held at &spigt; -1.5 MPa matric potential in the upper 0.3 m of soil for nutrient diffusion to roots and major growth in spring (resource growth pool). We measured soil water matric potentials and temperatures using gypsum blocks and thermocouples buried at 0.01–0.3 m on tree, shrub, and interspace microsites to characterize the seasonal soil climate of 13 tree-encroached sites across the Great Basin. We also tested the effects of initial tree infilling phase and tree control treatments of prescribed fire, tree cutting, and tree shredding on time of available water and soil temperature of the resource growth pool on nine sites. Both prescribed fire and mechanical tree reduction similarly increased the time that soil water was available (matric potential &spigt; -1.5 MPa) in spring, but this increase was greatest (up to 26 d) when treatments were applied at high tree dominance. As plant cover increased with time since treatment, the additional time of available water decreased. However, even in the fourth year after treatment, available water was 8.6 d and 18 d longer on treatments applied at mid and high tree dominance compared to untreated plots, indicating ongoing water availability to support continued increases in residual plants or annual invaders in the future. To increase resistance to invasive annual grasses managers should either treat at lower or mid tree dominance when there is still high cover of desirable residual vegetation or seed desirable species to use increased resources from tree reduction. This strategy is especially critical on warmer sites, which have high climate suitability to invasive species such as cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum L.)

Climate Change and Weed Impacts on Small Island Ecosystems:Lantana camaraL. (Magnoliopsida: Verbenaceae) Distribution in Fiji1

Oceanic island ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to invasion by exotic species, and this vulnerability may be intensified by the effects of climate change, particularly if favorable climate conditions allow exotic invaders to spread to new areas. Effective management of such species requires knowledge of their potential distribution under current and future climate. This research examines the value of species distribution modeling in invasive species management in small island ecosystems using the specific case of Lantana camara L. invasion in Fiji. A niche model of L. camara was developed using CLIMEX species distribution modeling (SDM) software. Several sources of data were used to develop the model including phenological observations and geographic distribution records. The model was used to estimate its potential distribution under historical climate. The CSIRO Mk3.0 Global Climate Model (GCM) was used to explore impacts of climate change on its potential future distribution. The model was run with the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030 and 2070. Large parts of both major islands of Fiji, Viti Levu and Vanua Levu, were shown to have high climatic suitability for L. camara. However, under future climate scenarios, climatic suitability for L. camara in Fiji was projected to contract. The results illustrate that SDMs can play a useful role in formulation of cost-effective invasive species management strategies and the resulting species distribution maps have broad applicability throughout the many islands of the South Pacific region.

An update on distribution models for Rhipicephalus microplus in West Africa

The cattle tick, Rhipicephalus microplus, which reached the West African region approximately 8 years ago, has established viable populations in Côte d'Ivoire and Benin and spread rapidly from the assumed points of introduction. However, existing maps of its distribution range do not agree on the areas at risk, most probably due to suboptimal modelling approaches. Therefore, we undertook a re-investigation of the potential distribution range based on a high-quality dataset from West Africa that includes information on 104 farms located all over Benin. Focussing on climate suitability and applying advanced modelling, a subset of representative and uncorrelated climate variables was selected and fed into Maxent software to obtain an estimate of climate suitability for West Africa. The resulting map was validated using an independent dataset of 13 farms along the apparent distribution edge. The entire southern part of West Africa (covering southern Nigeria, Benin, Togo and Ghana) features high climate suitability for R. microplus. All of Côte d'Ivoire is inside the distribution range of this tick and the southern rim of Burkina Faso is expected to be suitable for the establishment of R. microplus populations. The validation of the distribution, dated one year after the initial field visit, confirmed the predicted distribution range, although a small number of individuals of R. microplus were found north of the predicted limit. These low numbers might indicate that the climate is not suitable for the establishment of a viable tick population. An alternative explanation is the recent introduction by nomadic cattle herds passing through this location. In this region of the world, it is quite common for cattle owners to lead their livestock over distances of more than 500 km in search of food and water.

Predicting the geographic distribution of Lutzomyia longipalpis (Diptera: Psychodidae) and visceral leishmaniasis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

To understand the geographic distribution of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul (MS), Brazil, both the climatic niches of Lutzomyia longipalpis and VL cases were analysed. Distributional data were obtained from 55 of the 79 counties of MS between 2003-2012. Ecological niche models (ENM) of Lu. longipalpis and VL cases were produced using the maximum entropy algorithm based on eight climatic variables. Lu. longipalpis showed a wide distribution in MS. The highest climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis was observed in southern MS. Temperature seasonality and annual mean precipitation were the variables that most influenced these models. Two areas of high climatic suitability for the occurrence of VL cases were predicted: one near Aquidauana and another encompassing several municipalities in the southeast region of MS. As expected, a large overlap between the models for Lu. longipalpis and VL cases was detected. Northern and northwestern areas of MS were suitable for the occurrence of cases, but did not show high climatic suitability for Lu. longipalpis . ENM of vectors and human cases provided a greater understanding of the geographic distribution of VL in MS, which can be applied to the development of future surveillance strategies.

Effects of global changes on the climatic niche of the tick Ixodes ricinus inferred by species distribution modelling.

BackgroundGlobal climate change can seriously impact on the epidemiological dynamics of vector-borne diseases. In this study we investigated how future climatic changes could affect the climatic niche of Ixodes ricinus (Acari, Ixodida), among the most important vectors of pathogens of medical and veterinary concern in Europe.MethodsSpecies Distribution Modelling (SDM) was used to reconstruct the climatic niche of I. ricinus, and to project it into the future conditions for 2050 and 2080, under two scenarios: a continuous human demographic growth and a severe increase of gas emissions (scenario A2), and a scenario that proposes lower human demographic growth than A2, and a more sustainable gas emissions (scenario B2). Models were reconstructed using the algorithm of “maximum entropy”, as implemented in the software Maxent 3.3.3e; 4,544 occurrence points and 15 bioclimatic variables were used.ResultsIn both scenarios an increase of climatic niche of about two times greater than the current area was predicted as well as a higher climatic suitability under the scenario B2 than A2. Such an increase occurred both in a latitudinal and longitudinal way, including northern Eurasian regions (e.g. Sweden and Russia), that were previously unsuitable for the species.ConclusionsOur models are congruent with the predictions of range expansion already observed in I. ricinus at a regional scale and provide a qualitative and quantitative assessment of the future climatically suitable areas for I. ricinus at a continental scale. Although the use of SDM at a higher resolution should be integrated by a more refined analysis of further abiotic and biotic data, the results presented here suggest that under future climatic scenarios most of the current distribution area of I. ricinus could remain suitable and significantly increase at a continental geographic scale. Therefore disease outbreaks of pathogens transmitted by this tick species could emerge in previous non-endemic geographic areas. Further studies will implement and refine present data toward a better understanding of the risk represented by I. ricinus to human health.

Geographical patterns of congruence and incongruence between correlative species distribution models and a process‐based ecophysiological growth model

AbstractAimOur aim was to map the climate dependence of tree species distributions (probability of occurrence) and forest growth (net primary productivity) by comparing the congruence and incongruence between correlative and process‐based modelling approaches.LocationIberian Peninsula, south‐western Europe.MethodsWe used forest inventory data for three widespread tree species (Quercus ilex, Pinus halepensis and Pinus sylvestris) to model climatic suitability with an ensemble of seven correlative species distribution models (using biomod). We then simulated forest net primary productivity (NPP) as a surrogate of forest growth for forests of each species using an ecophysiological process‐based model (gotilwa+) along a gradient of climatic suitability. The spatial distribution of the growth estimates was then compared with that of the suitability estimates, and robust regression was used to classify regions in terms of model congruence.ResultsQuercus ilex and P. sylvestris both showed a positive relationship between forest NPP and climatic suitability. The main discrepancies were found in the north of the peninsula, where there was high potential forest growth but low climate suitability. Low forest‐growth estimates in areas of high suitability only appeared for P. sylvestris in southern montane regions. Pinus halepensis always showed a negative relationship between estimated growth and climatic suitability. The analysis of other ecophysiological parameters (mean leaf life and leaf area index) suggests that this tree species has different physiological strategies that allow differential growth rates in areas of low suitability.Main conclusionsWe found that the relationship between estimated growth and distribution varies strongly in different areas and species. Mapping the incongruences between the predicted climatic suitability and growth allowed us to identify regions where other factors (e.g. biotic interactions) may be more significant than the physiological limits on growth. We show that new insights into species distributions can be gained from mapping the differences between correlative and process‐based models.

Biology and Impacts of Pacific Island Invasive Species. 10.Iguana iguana, the Green Iguana (Squamata: Iguanidae)

Green iguanas (Iguana iguana L.) have been introduced to many locations outside their native range due to both the pet trade and illegal introductions. This has led to the establishment of populations and subsequent spread outside the native range, with negative impacts documented in some places. The Pacific region is no exception, where green iguana populations have been reported historically in Hawai'i and recently in Fiji and Ishigaki Island (Japan). Experience with I. iguana in the Greater Caribbean Basin has taught us that, if the right conditions are present, these reptiles proliferate and expand their range rapidly. We assessed the potential impacts that I. iguana may have on Pacific islands, especially where populations have been reported, and evaluated the risk of a green iguana invasion on Pacific islands using the maximum entropy nichemodeling algorithm (MaxEnt). The model predicted high climatic suitability for these reptiles on many Pacific islands, including those where populations have already been reported. Management and eradication strategies may include (1) targeting males during the reproductive season, when they establish territories and are displaying in trees; (2) finding females during the nesting season, when they are active on the ground and in vegetation at nearby nesting areas; and (3) finding nests and destroying eggs, or constructing artificial nesting areas to lure females. Green iguanas may be captured by hand or by pole-noose, with dogs, or shot with a 0.22 rifle. Where green iguanas are kept as pets, education campaigns are critical to prevent escapes. If possession is illegal, amnesty may be offered to owners who hand them in. Without proper regulation and management, I. iguana is likely to continue spreading and invading other Pacific islands.

Dynamics of decadal changes in the distribution of double-cropping rice cultivation in China

Quantitative description of changes in the distribution of paddy rice cultivation in response to recent climate change provides a reference for rice cultivation patterns and formulation of countermeasures to cope with future climate change in China. This study analyzes the dynamics of decadal changes in distribution of double-cropping rice in China during 1961–2010 in relation to climate change based on the maximum entropy method. Decadal changes in the double-cropping rice cultivation area and climatic suitability in China were apparent. The total area of climatically suitable regions was highest in the 1960s, and subsequently showed an increasing trend at first and then a decreasing trend from the 1970s to 2000s. However, the low climatic suitability area decreased, which implied that the moderate and high climatic suitability areas increased. Among the latter, the high climatic suitability area showed the highest increase in extent to 4.4 times that of the 1990s and four times that of the 1960s. The areas of double-cropping rice cultivation most sensitive to climate change are mainly located in central Jiangsu, central Anhui, the eastern Sichuan Basin, southern Henan and central Guizhou. Transformation of areas between low and moderate climatic suitability was observed in northern Zhejiang, southern Anhui and Hubei, and northern Guangxi. Transformation of areas between moderate and high climatic suitability was observed in central Jiangxi and Leizhou Peninsula. The northern boundary of double-cropping rice cultivation in China shifted southwards and contracted eastwards in the 1970s, and extended northwards in the 1980s. However, the northern boundary did not shift northwards in response to climate warming in the 2000s.