Higher Mean Annual Temperature Research Articles

Acceleration of phosphorus weathering under warm climates.

The release of phosphorous (P) via chemical weathering is a vital process that regulates the global cycling of numerous key elements and shapes the size of the Earth's biosphere. It has long been postulated that global climate should theoretically play a prominent role in governing P weathering rates. Yet, there is currently a lack of direct evidence for this relationship based on empirical data at the global scale. Here, using a compilation of temperature and P content data of global surface soils (0 to 30 cm), we demonstrate that P release does enhance at high mean annual surface temperatures. We propose that this amplification of nutrient supply with warming is a critical component of Earth's natural thermostat, and that this relationship likely caused expanded oceanic anoxia during past climate warming events. The potential acceleration of phosphorus loss from soils due to anthropogenic climate warming may pose threats to agricultural production, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and alter marine redox landscapes.

Acceleration of phosphorus weathering under warm climates.

The release of phosphorous (P) via chemical weathering is a vital process that regulates the global cycling of numerous key elements and shapes the size of the Earth's biosphere. It has long been postulated that global climate should theoretically play a prominent role in governing P weathering rates. Yet, there is currently a lack of direct evidence for this relationship based on empirical data at the global scale. Here, using a compilation of temperature and P content data of global surface soils (0 to 30 cm), we demonstrate that P release does enhance at high mean annual surface temperatures. We propose that this amplification of nutrient supply with warming is a critical component of Earth's natural thermostat, and that this relationship likely caused expanded oceanic anoxia during past climate warming events. The potential acceleration of phosphorus loss from soils due to anthropogenic climate warming may pose threats to agricultural production, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, and alter marine redox landscapes.

Morphological responses of root hairs to changes in soil and climate depend on plant life form

IntroductionRoot hairs increase the surface area of a plant’s root system that is in contact with the soil, thus facilitating plant water and nutrient uptake. However, little is known about the characteristics of the root hairs of herbaceous and woody plants and their specific response patterns to biotic and abiotic variables from the perspective of resource acquisition strategies in the context of global change.MethodsHere, we analyzed 74 published case studies with 1074 observations of root hair traits to identify patterns of root hair length, density and diameter in relation to soil (e.g., soil pH, nutrient levels), growing environments (e.g., greenhouse, field) and climatic factors (e.g., air temperature), as well as genome size and plant age.ResultsRoot hairs were longer, denser and thicker in woody plants compared with herbaceous plants, and the length and diameter of root hairs in herbaceous plants increased with genome size. With increasing plant age, woody plants had significantly longer and thicker root hairs, while root hair density and diameter declined significantly for herbaceous plants. Soil-cultured plants had longer root hairs than solution-cultured plants. The length and density of root hairs were greater in greenhouse-cultured plants than in field-grown plants, and the latter had thicker root hairs than the former. As soil pH increased, root hair length increased but diameter decreased in woody plants, while root hair density increased in herbaceous plants. Increased soil total nitrogen (N) and potassium (K) significantly increased root hair length, density and diameter in herbaceous plants, while soil total N significantly decreased root hair density in woody plants. Root hair length increased significantly, while root hair density decreased significantly, with higher mean annual temperature and greater precipitation seasonality, while the opposite pattern was true for a wider annual temperature range.DiscussionOur findings emphasize the life-form-specific responses of root hairs to soil and climatic variables. These findings will help deepen our understanding of resource acquisition strategies and their mechanisms in different plant forms under global climate change.

Global distribution of surface soil organic carbon in urban greenspaces

Urban greenspaces continue to grow with global urbanization. The global distribution and stock of soil organic carbon (SOC) in urban greenspaces remain largely undescribed and missing in global carbon (C) budgets. Here, we synthesize data of 420 observations from 257 cities in 52 countries to evaluate the global pattern of surface SOC density (0–20 cm depth) in urban greenspaces. Surface SOC density in urban greenspaces increases significantly at higher latitudes and decreases significantly with higher mean annual temperature, stronger temperature and precipitation seasonality, as well as lower urban greenness index. By mapping surface SOC density using a random forest model, we estimate an average SOC density of 55.2 (51.9–58.6) Mg C ha−1 and a SOC stock of 1.46 (1.37–1.54) Pg C in global urban greenspaces. Our findings present a comprehensive assessment of SOC in global urban greenspaces and provide a baseline for future urban soil C assessment under continuing urbanization.

Stronger compensatory thermal adaptation of soil microbial respiration with higher substrate availability.

Ongoing global warming is expected to augment soil respiration by increasing the microbial activity, driving self-reinforcing feedback to climate change. However, the compensatory thermal adaptation of soil microorganisms and substrate depletion may weaken the effects of rising temperature on soil respiration. To test this hypothesis, we collected soils along a large-scale forest transect in eastern China spanning a natural temperature gradient, and we incubated the soils at different temperatures with or without substrate addition. We combined the exponential thermal response function and a data-driven model to study the interaction effect of thermal adaptation and substrate availability on microbial respiration and compared our results to those from two additional continental and global independent datasets. Modeled results suggested that the effect of thermal adaptation on microbial respiration was greater in areas with higher mean annual temperatures, which is consistent with the compensatory response to warming. In addition, the effect of thermal adaptation on microbial respiration was greater under substrate addition than under substrate depletion, which was also true for the independent datasets reanalyzed using our approach. Our results indicate that thermal adaptation in warmer regions could exert a more pronounced negative impact on microbial respiration when the substrate availability is abundant. These findings improve the body of knowledge on how substrate availability influences the soil microbial community-temperature interactions, which could improve estimates of projected soil carbon losses to the atmosphere through respiration.

No-tillage enhances soil water storage, grain yield and water use efficiency in dryland wheat (Triticum aestivum) and maize (Zea mays) cropping systems: a global meta-analysis.

Climate change significantly affects crop production and is a threat to global food security. Conventional tillage (CT) is the primary tillage practice in rain-fed areas to conserve soil moisture. Despite previous research on the effect of tillage methods on different cropping systems, a comparison of tillage methods on soil water storage, crop yield and crop water use in wheat (Triticum aestivum ) and maize (Zea mays ) under different soil textures, precipitation and temperature patterns is needed. We reviewed 119 published articles and used meta-analysis to assess the effects of three conservation tillage practices (NT, no-tillage; RT, reduced tillage; ST, subsoil tillage), on precipitation storage efficiency (PSE), soil water storage at crop planting (SWSp), grain yield, evapotranspiration (ET) and water use efficiency (WUE) under varying precipitation and temperature patterns and soil textures in dryland wheat and maize, with CT as the control treatment. Conservation tillage methods increased PSE, SWSp, grain yield, ET and WUE in both winter wheat-fallow and spring maize cropping systems. More precipitation water was conserved in fine-textured soils than in medium-textured and coarse-textured soils, which improved ET. Conservation tillage increased soil water conservation and yield under high mean annual precipitation (MAP) and moderate mean annual temperature (MAT) conditions in winter wheat. However, soil water conservation and yield were greater under MAP <400mm and moderate MAT. We conclude that conservation tillage could be promising for increasing precipitation storage, soil water conservation and crop yield in regions with medium to low MAPs and medium to high MATs.

Contrasting invasion patterns of two closely related Solidago alien species

AbstractAimNew areas are often simultaneously invaded by closely related alien species; however, between‐species differences in the course of their invasive spreading due to diverse ecological preferences have rarely been investigated. Here, we aim to study the species‐specific spatio‐temporal invasion patterns of Solidago canadensis and S. gigantea.LocationSlovakia—the Western Carpathian and adjacent Pannonian regions.TaxonInvasive alien Solidago canadensis and S. gigantea.MethodsOur study was based on revised herbarium specimens, a recent field survey which included gathering abundance and habitat data, and environmental data from GIS layers. We characterised the environmental niche differentiation between S. canadensis and S. gigantea. Generalised additive models were then used to identify the key drivers of the species' occurrences and to assess their potential current and future distributions.ResultsBoth species began to spread in Slovakia in the 1850s; in the first 100 years, the number of S. gigantea sites increased exponentially, while that of S. canadensis remained low. Currently, S. canadensis is more widespread in the region. The species have similar habitat preferences. Their environmental niches overlap, but are not identical. The core distribution of S. canadensis is in foothills and valleys that experience lower annual mean temperatures, while that of S. gigantea is in lowlands with higher annual mean temperatures. A large part of their potential distribution areas seems to be already invaded. Possible future climate change could stimulate the spreading of S. canadensis into higher altitudes and S. gigantea farther into lowlands and Carpathian foothills.Main conclusionsThe studied invasive Solidago species differed considerably in the early stages of invasion. Their environmental niches, current realised and potential distribution patterns are different. In the studied region, further spreading, with an increase in the number and size of populations, is likely unless effective measures are undertaken.

Meta-analysis on the Effects of Nitrogen Addition on Soil Organic Carbon Content in Terrestrial Ecosystems

Several studies have demonstrated that the increased deposition of nitrogen(N) has significantly affected the content of soil organic carbon(SOC); however, the change significantly varies in different regions. In this study, Meta-analysis, Meta-regression, and linear regression were performed to systematically evaluate the effects of climate, soil properties, and field design factors on the responses of SOC to N addition based on 408 data points from 49 field experiments in China. The results revealed that the response of SOC to N addition was significantly positively correlated with the mean annual temperature(MAT) and mean annual precipitation(MAP) of the sample sites(P<0.05). In the regions with lower MAT(<3℃) or MAP(<500 mm), SOC significantly decreased after N addition. In the areas with higher MAT(>3℃) or MAP(>500 mm); however, SOC significantly increased. For soil properties, SOC significantly accumulated after N addition in the plots with a higher soil C:N ratio(>15) or acidic soil(pH<6.5) but less changed in the plots with a lower C:N ratio(≤ 15) or higher pH(≥ 6.5). For ecotype, after N addition, SOC decreased significantly in the grassland ecosystem(-5.34%) but less changed in the wetland ecosystem. SOC accumulated the most after N addition in the forest ecosystem(10.52%), particularly in the broad-leaved forest ecosystem(13.10%). Further analysis showed that the soil C:N ratio was the most important factor. For type of N application, the addition of ammonium nitrate or urea increased the SOC content significantly, but the effect of nitrate was not significant. In summary, when accurately evaluating, predicting, and analyzing the effects of N addition on SOC content, the effects of climatic characteristics and soil properties of sample sites and field design factors should be comprehensively considered.

The Diverse Reticulate Genetic Set-Up of Endangered Gladiolus palustris in Southern Germany Has Consequences for the Development of Conservation Strategies

Gladiolus palustris (marsh Gladiolus) of wet grasslands is an extremely rare and highly endangered species in Central Europe. Ongoing loss of habitat, population fragmentation, drought, and higher mean annual temperatures caused by global warming have all contributed to a severe decline in its population over the past few decades. Additionally, hybridization with other species, such as G. imbricatus and G. illyricus, and genetic depletion may pose a significant threat to the species’ survival. The focus of this study is to characterize major gene pools of the species in southern and southwestern Germany. Using molecular AFLP markers and ITS DNA sequencing, this study shows that past hybridization and introgression in Central Europe are more extensive than previously thought, posing a challenge to conservation strategies targeting taxonomically defined species. The region of the Rhine River in southwestern Germany (Upper Rhine Valley) has seen the emergence of various scattered populations of G. palustris over the past three decades, which are believed to have been introduced by humans. Introduced populations in this area (comprising the German Federal States of Baden–Württemberg and Rhineland–Palatinate) likely descend from a large source population near Lake Constance. Therefore, the study suggests promoting and protecting these new populations, given their long-standing presence in the region. Furthermore, the research proposes that naturally occurring hybrids and introgressed populations should also be the primary target of conservation efforts.

Ericoid shrub encroachment shifts aboveground-belowground linkages in three peatlands across Europe and Western Siberia.

In northern peatlands, reduction of Sphagnum dominance in favour of vascular vegetation is likely to influence biogeochemical processes. Such vegetation changes occur as the water table lowers and temperatures rise. To test which of these factors has a significant influence on peatland vegetation, we conducted a 3-year manipulative field experiment in Linje mire (northern Poland). We manipulated the peatland water table level (wet, intermediate and dry; on average the depth of the water table was 17.4, 21.2 and 25.3 cm respectively), and we used open-top chambers (OTCs) to create warmer conditions (on average increase of 1.2°C in OTC plots compared to control plots). Peat drying through water table lowering at this local scale had a larger effect than OTC warming treatment per see on Sphagnum mosses and vascular plants. In particular, ericoid shrubs increased with a lower water table level, while Sphagnum decreased. Microclimatic measurements at the plot scale indicated that both water-level and temperature, represented by heating degree days (HDDs), can have significant effects on the vegetation. In a large-scale complementary vegetation gradient survey replicated in three peatlands positioned along a transitional oceanic-continental and temperate-boreal (subarctic) gradient (France-Poland-Western Siberia), an increase in ericoid shrubs was marked by an increase in phenols in peat pore water, resulting from higher phenol concentrations in vascular plant biomass. Our results suggest a shift in functioning from a mineral-N-driven to a fungi-mediated organic-N nutrient acquisition with shrub encroachment. Both ericoid shrub encroachment and higher mean annual temperature in the three sites triggered greater vascular plant biomass and consequently the dominance of decomposers (especially fungi), which led to a feeding community dominated by nematodes. This contributed to lower enzymatic multifunctionality. Our findings illustrate mechanisms by which plants influence ecosystem responses to climate change, through their effect on microbial trophic interactions.

Microbial ecological clusters structured by environments drive maize residue decomposition at the continental scale

Environmental factors (e.g., climate and edaphic factors) indirectly regulate residue decomposition via microbial communities. Microbial ecological clusters (eco-clusters) structured by specific environmental factors have consequences for ecosystem functions. However, less is known about how microbial eco-clusters affect residue decomposition, especially over broad geographic scales. We collected agricultural soils from adjacent pairs of upland and paddy fields along a latitudinal gradient from the cold-temperature zone to the tropical zone, and conducted a microcosm experiment with 13C-labelled maize residue to explore the continental pattern of maize residue-derived 13CO2 (RDC), and whether and how microbial eco-clusters drive and predict RDC. Results showed that RDC decreased with latitude in both upland and paddy fields. Further, we identified 21 well-defined eco-clusters according to microbial environmental preferences, which explained 51.15 % of the spatial variations in RDC. The eco-clusters of high-total annual precipitation (TAP), high-mean annual temperature (MAT), low-pH, and some low-nutrient-associated exerted a positive effect on RDC. These eco-clusters contained many taxa belonging to the Actinobacteriota, Firmicutes, and Sordariomycetes, and their relative abundance decreased with latitude. Upland soils displayed 2.40-fold of RDC over paddy soils. Low-pH and high-organic matter (OM) eco-clusters were found to be the most prominent predictors of RDC in upland and paddy fields, respectively. Finally, we constructed a continental atlas of RDC in both upland and paddy fields based on eco-clusters and high-resolution climate and soil data. Overall, our study provides important evidence that historical environment-shaped microbial eco-clusters can drive and predict residue decomposition, providing new insights into how environmental factors indirectly regulate residue decomposition.

The effect of experimental warming on fine root functional traits of woody plants: Data synthesis

Fine root traits are critical to plant nutrition and water uptake, and soil nutrient cycling. The impacts of climate warming on woody plants are predicted to be severe, but the effects on the fine root traits of woody plants remain unclear. To evaluate the effects of warming on fine-root traits of woody plants, we synthesized 431 paired observations of 13 traits from 78 studies. The result showed that warming increased the fine root nitrogen (N) concentration, root mortality, and root respiration, but decreased fine root phosphorus (P) concentration, root C:N and root nonstructural carbohydrates (NSC) concentration. However, warming had no significant effect on fine root biomass, root production and morphological traits. Warming effects on fine root biomass and root diameter decreased with warming magnitude, while root P concentration increased. Moreover, with increasing warming duration, the effect size of specific root length (SRL), root length, root C:N and root NSC increased. The effects size of root biomass, root diameter, root length and root C:N decreased with mean annual temperature (MAT) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) increase. However, the effect size of root N concentration increased with higher MAT and MAP. Furthermore, warming increased the fine root biomass of ectomycorrhiza (ECM) plants, but decreased that of plants associated with arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi. These results indicate that the effect of warming on fine root traits of woody plants was not only modulated by warming duration and magnitude, but also MAT and MAP. Our findings highlight the differential warming responses to fine root traits of woody plants, which have strong implications for shrubs and tree-dominated ecosystems soil nutrients cycling and carbon stocks.

Effect of replacing synthetic nitrogen fertilizer with animal manure on grain yield and nitrogen use efficiency in China: a meta-analysis.

To reduce reliance on synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and sustain food production, replacing synthetic N fertilizer with animal manure as an effective method is widely used. However, the effects of replacing synthetic N fertilizer with animal manure on crop yield and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) remain uncertain under varying fertilization management practices, climate conditions, and soil properties. Here, we performed a meta-analysis of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), maize (Zea mays L.), and rice (Oryza sativa L.) based on 118 published studies conducted in China. Overall, the results indicated that substituting synthetic N fertilizer with manure increased yield by 3.3%-3.9% for the three grain crops and increased NUE by 6.3%-10.0%. Crop yields and NUE did not significantly increase at a low N application rate (≤120 kg ha-1) or high substitution rate (>60%). Yields and NUE values had higher increases for upland crops (wheat and maize) in temperate monsoon climate/temperate continental climate regions with less average annual rainfall (AAR) and lower mean annual temperature (MAT), while rice had higher increases in subtropical monsoon climate regions with more AAR and higher MAT. The effect of manure substitution was better in soil with low organic matter and available phosphorus. Our study shows that the optimal substitution rate was 44% and the total N fertilizer input cannot be less than 161kg ha-1 when substituting synthetic N fertilizer with manure. Moreover, site-specific conditions should also be considered.

Do cover crops suppress weeds in the U.S. Southeast? A meta-analysis

AbstractCover crops (CCs) have shown great potential for suppressing annual weeds within agronomic cropping systems across the United States. However, the weed suppressive potential of CCs may be moderated by environmental and management factors that are specific to certain geographic areas and their associated characteristics. This may be particularly true within the U.S. Southeast, where higher mean annual temperature and precipitation generate favorable conditions for both CC and weed growth. To understand the effects of this regional context on CCs and weeds, a meta-analysis examining paired comparisons of weed biomass and/or weed density under CC and bare ground conditions from studies conducted within the Southeast was conducted. Data were identified and extracted from 28 journal articles in which weed biomass and/or weed density were measured along with cash crop yield data, if they were provided. Fourteen studies provided 142 comparisons for weed biomass; 23 studies provided 139 comparisons for weed density; and 22 studies, pooled over both weed response variables, provided 144 comparisons for cash crop yield. CCs had a negative effect on weed density (P = 0.0016) but no effect on either weed biomass (P = 0.16) or cash crop yield (P = 0.88). The mean relative reduction in weed density under CCs was 44%. Subsequent analyses indicated that CC biomass was the key factor associated with this reduction. Weed density suppression was linearly related to CC biomass; a 50% decrease in weed density was associated with 6,600 kg ha−1 of CC biomass. Edaphic, geographic, and other management factors had no bearing on this suppressive effect. This highlights the importance of generating adequate CC biomass if weed suppression is the primary objective of CC use and the potential for CCs to reduce weed density over diverse soil, climate, and farm management conditions.

Drivers of the microbial metabolic quotient across global grasslands

AbstractAimThe microbial metabolic quotient (MMQ; mg CO2‐C/mg MBC/h), defined as the amount of microbial CO2 respired (MR; mg CO2‐C/kg soil/h) per unit of microbial biomass C (MBC; mg C/kg soil), is a key parameter for understanding the microbial regulation of the carbon (C) cycle, including soil C sequestration. Here, we experimentally tested hypotheses about the individual and interactive effects of multiple nutrient addition (nitrogen + phosphorus + potassium + micronutrients) and herbivore exclusion on MR, MBC and MMQ across 23 sites (five continents). Our sites encompassed a wide range of edaphoclimatic conditions; thus, we assessed which edaphoclimatic variables affected MMQ the most and how they interacted with our treatments.LocationAustralia, Asia, Europe, North/South America.Time period2015–2016.Major taxaSoil microbes.MethodsSoils were collected from plots with established experimental treatments. MR was assessed in a 5‐week laboratory incubation without glucose addition, MBC via substrate‐induced respiration. MMQ was calculated as MR/MBC and corrected for soil temperatures (MMQsoil). Using linear mixed effects models (LMMs) and structural equation models (SEMs), we analysed how edaphoclimatic characteristics and treatments interactively affected MMQsoil.ResultsMMQsoil was higher in locations with higher mean annual temperature, lower water holding capacity and lower soil organic C concentration, but did not respond to our treatments across sites as neither MR nor MBC changed. We attributed this relative homeostasis to our treatments to the modulating influence of edaphoclimatic variables. For example, herbivore exclusion, regardless of fertilization, led to greater MMQsoil only at sites with lower soil organic C (&lt; 1.7%).Main conclusionsOur results pinpoint the main variables related to MMQsoil across grasslands and emphasize the importance of the local edaphoclimatic conditions in controlling the response of the C cycle to anthropogenic stressors. By testing hypotheses about MMQsoil across global edaphoclimatic gradients, this work also helps to align the conflicting results of prior studies.

Response of soil organic carbon fractions to cover cropping: A meta-analysis of agroecosystems

Agroecosystems have a large potential for soil carbon (C) sequestration, and cover cropping is one management practice that can enhance soil C while providing other ecological and agronomic benefits. Still, we lack an understanding of the distribution of this added C across soil organic C (SOC) fractions. Two major operational pools make up SOC: easily decomposed, faster-turnover particulate organic C (POC) and slowly decomposed, slower-turnover mineral-associated organic C (MAOC). Though POC is generally more sensitive to environmental change in the short term, recent projections hold that MAOC stocks could face considerable loss in croplands where it is the dominant form of SOC. We used a systematic meta-analysis to determine responses of POC and MAOC concentration and stock to cover cropping and how these responses are influenced by soil, agronomic, and climatic variables. Across 49 studies concentrated in the Americas and Europe, total POC increased by 14.94% and total MAOC increased by 5.56% on average in cover-cropped soils vs. non-cover cropped or fallow control soils, which would effectively reverse or offset projected losses of SOC with climate warming. The effect of cover cropping on POC was greater in soils sampled from 0 to 10 cm vs. 10–30 cm depths and under higher mean annual temperature, but the effect of cover cropping on MAOC was not influenced by either of these factors. The response of POC to cover cropping was significantly positive for certain cover crop growing seasons, cover crop types, and tillage practices in which the MAOC response was not significant, indicating that changes in POC rather than MAOC are responsible for driving the positive response of total SOC to cover cropping. One commonality between POC and MAOC responses to cover cropping was that both dramatically increased with the amount of aboveground C produced by cover crops. Still, POC and MAOC responses to cover cropping were not strongly altered by nitrogen fertilization rate, cover crop diversity, experimental duration, annual precipitation, or baseline soil properties (texture, total organic C, and pH). Our results show that POC is more responsive to cover cropping than MAOC in an average of five years. However, more experimental data are needed to determine how these SOC fractions respond in deeper soil as well as in different geographic regions, climates, and soil orders. Based on our results, we discuss drivers of total and fractional SOC dynamics in agroecosystems and lessons learned from our synthesis of available fractional SOC data.

Resin-Tapping Production in Pinus pinaster Ait. Stands in Galicia (NW Spain): Effects of Location, Number of Faces, Wound Width and Production Year

Resin or gum is secreted by conifers, mainly members of the genus Pinus, in response to physical and/or chemical stimulation, which can be induced by tapping live trees, i.e., by making repeated wounds in the trees. Resin production could potentially complement timber production (the main economic activity) in pine stands in Galicia (NW Spain). In addition, the particular characteristics of Galician woodlands (smallholdings, sloping land, presence of shrubs, high density of trees) imply different yields and costs than in pine stands dedicated to resin production in other parts of Spain. Therefore, a specific regional management model that is different from the traditional model established for other resin producing areas in the Iberian Peninsula is required. In this study, resin tapping was applied in each of the three years before the trees were felled, in two different locations, with one or two faces tapped and wounds of two different widths (12 and 16 cm) made across the face(s). Tapping two faces yielded more resin than tapping a single face, thus confirming the study hypothesis. When only one face was tapped, the plot location acquired greater importance, with production being higher in the location characterised by a higher mean annual temperature. Increasing the width of the wound did not always increase the amount of resin obtained per tree, which depended on the number of faces open: when two faces were tapped, increasing the width of the wound increased resin production in both locations in each of the three years of the trial. The weather conditions in each year masked the effect of the tapping season, and production did not follow any particular trend over time. The importance of the local weather conditions in the study areas and the environmental conditions in each year are discussed. The study findings are important for decision-making regarding the treatment and selection of areas for resin extraction.

Early Genomic Surveillance and Phylogeographic Analysis of Getah Virus, a Reemerging Arbovirus, in Livestock in China.

Getah virus (GETV) mainly causes disease in livestock and may pose an epidemic risk due to its expanding host range and the potential of long-distance dispersal through animal trade. Here, we used metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) to identify GETV as the pathogen responsible for reemerging swine disease in China and subsequently estimated key epidemiological parameters using phylodynamic and spatially-explicit phylogeographic approaches. The GETV isolates were able to replicate in a variety of cell lines, including human cells, and showed high pathogenicity in a mouse model, suggesting the potential for more mammal hosts. We obtained 16 complete genomes and 79 E2 gene sequences from viral strains collected in China from 2016 to 2021 through large-scale surveillance among livestock, pets, and mosquitoes. Our phylogenetic analysis revealed that three major GETV lineages are responsible for the current epidemic in livestock in China. We identified three potential positively selected sites and mutations of interest in E2, which may impact the transmissibility and pathogenicity of the virus. Phylodynamic inference of the GETV demographic dynamics identified an association between livestock meat consumption and the evolution of viral genetic diversity. Finally, phylogeographic reconstruction of GETV dispersal indicated that the sampled lineages have preferentially circulated within areas associated with relatively higher mean annual temperature and pig population density. Our results highlight the importance of continuous surveillance of GETV among livestock in southern Chinese regions associated with relatively high temperatures. IMPORTANCE Although livestock is known to be the primary reservoir of Getah virus (GETV) in Asian countries, where identification is largely based on serology, the evolutionary history and spatial epidemiology of GETV in these regions remain largely unknown. Through our sequencing efforts, we provided robust support for lineage delineation of GETV and identified three major lineages that are responsible for the current epidemic in livestock in China. We further analyzed genomic and epidemiological data to reconstruct the recent demographic and dispersal history of GETV in domestic animals in China and to explore the impact of environmental factors on its genetic diversity and its diffusion. Notably, except for livestock meat consumption, other pig-related factors such as the evolution of live pig transport and pork production do not show a significant association with the evolution of viral genetic diversity, pointing out that further studies should investigate the potential contribution of other host species to the GETV outbreak. Our analysis of GETV demonstrates the need for wider animal species surveillance and provides a baseline for future studies of the molecular epidemiology and early warning of emerging arboviruses in China.

Regional dynamical and statistical downscaling temperature, humidity and wind speed for the Beijing region under stratospheric aerosol injection geoengineering

Abstract. We use four Earth system models (ESMs) to simulate climate under the modest greenhouse emissions RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway), the “business-as-usual” RCP8.5 and the stratospheric aerosol injection G4 geoengineering scenarios. These drive a 10 km resolution dynamically downscaled model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) and a statistically bias-corrected (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, ISIMIP) and downscaled simulation in a 450×330 km domain containing the Beijing Province, ranging from 2000 m elevation to sea level. The 1980s simulations of surface temperatures, humidities and wind speeds using statistical bias correction make for a better estimate of mean climate determined by ERA5 reanalysis data than does the WRF simulation. However correcting the WRF output with quantile delta mapping bias correction removes the offsets in mean state and results in WRF better reproducing observations over 2007–2017 than ISIMIP bias correction. The WRF simulations consistently show 0.5 ∘C higher mean annual temperatures than from ISIMIP due both to the better resolved city centres and also to warmer winter temperatures. In the 2060s WRF produces consistently larger spatial ranges of surface temperatures, humidities and wind speeds than ISIMIP downscaling across the Beijing Province for all three future scenarios. The WRF and ISIMIP methods produce very similar spatial patterns of temperature with G4 and are always cooler than RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, by a slightly larger amount with ISIMIP than WRF. Humidity scenario differences vary greatly between ESMs, and hence ISIMIP downscaling, while for WRF the results are far more consistent across ESMs and show only small changes between scenarios. Mean wind speeds show similarly small changes over the domain, although G4 is significantly windier under WRF than either RCP scenario.

Modeling the environmental suitability for Bacillus anthracis in the Qinghai Lake Basin, China.

Bacillus anthracis is a gram-positive, rod-shaped and endospore-forming bacterium that causes anthrax, a deadly disease to livestock and, occasionally, to humans. The spores are extremely hardy and may remain viable for many years in soil. Previous studies have identified East Qinghai and neighbouring Gansu in northwest China as a potential source of anthrax infection. This study was carried out to identify conditions and areas in the Qinghai Lake basin that are environmentally suitable for B. anthracis distribution. Anthrax occurrence data from 2005–2016 and environmental variables were spatially modeled by a maximum entropy algorithm to evaluate the contribution of the variables to the distribution of B. anthracis. Principal Component Analysis and Variance Inflation Analysis were adopted to limit the number of environmental variables and minimize multicollinearity. Model performance was evaluated using AUC (area under the curve) ROC (receiver operating characteristics) curves. The three variables that contributed most to the suitability model for B. anthracis are a relatively high annual mean temperature of -2 to 0°C, (53%), soil type classified as; cambisols and kastanozems (35%), and a high human population density of 40 individuals per km2 (12%). The resulting distribution map identifies the permanently inhabited rim of the Qinghai Lake as highly suitable for B. anthracis. Our environmental suitability map and the identified variables provide the nature reserve managers and animal health authorities readily available information to devise both surveillance strategy and control strategy (administration of vaccine to livestock) in B. anthracis suitable regions to abate future epidemics.