High Water Stress Research Articles

Comparative germination responses to water potential across different populations of Aegilops geniculata and cultivar varieties of Triticum durum and Triticum aestivum.

Crop Wild Relatives are often used to improve crop quality and yields because they contain genetically important traits that can contribute to stress resistance and adaptation. Seed germination of different populations of Aegilops geniculata Roth collected along a latitudinal gradient was studied under different drought stress in order to find populations suitable for improving drought tolerance in wheat. Different accessions of Aegilops neglecta Req. ex Bertol., Triticum aestivum L. and T.durum Desf. were used as comparison. Under full hydration, germination was high in all populations, but increasing drought stress led to reduced and delayed germination. Significant differences in final germination and mean time to germinate were detected among populations. Wheat, durum wheat and the southern population of Ae.geniculata were not significantly affected by drought stress, germinating similarly under all treatments. However, seed germination of the northern populations of Ae.geniculata was significantly reduced under high water stress treatment. Differences between populations of the same species could not be explained by annual rainfall across populations' distributions, but by rainfall during seed development and maturation. Differences in the germination responses to drought found here highlight the importance of source populations as criteria for genotype selection for pre-breeders.

Small-scale catchment analysis of water stress in wet regions of the U.S.: an example from Louisiana

Groundwater is increasingly being overdrafted in the Southeastern U.S., despite abundant rainfall and the apparent availability of surface water. Using the state of Louisiana as an example, the current study quantifies the stresses on water resources and investigates the potential for opportunities to use surface water in lieu of groundwater pumping. The assessment is based on a fine watershed scale (12-digit Hydrological Unit Code [HUC] boundaries) water balance between the availability of surface and groundwater and surface water and groundwater demand. Water demand includes environmental flows, as well as public supply, rural domestic, industrial, power generation, agricultural, and aquaculture sectors. The seasonality of water stress is also addressed by incorporating monthly variations in surface water supply and irrigation demands. We develop several new weighting schemes to disaggregate the water withdrawals, provided by the U.S. Geological Survey on a county scale, to the HUC12 scale. The analysis on the smaller HUC12 scale is important for identifying areas with high water stress that would otherwise be masked at a larger scale (e.g. the county or HUC8 watershed scales). The results indicate that the annual water stress in Louisiana is below one (i.e. there is more water available than is used) for most watersheds; however, some watersheds (15 of the HUC12 units) show stresses greater than one, indicating an insufficient water supply to meet existing demands. The areas of the highest water stress are largely attributable to water consumption for power generating plants or irrigation. Moreover, estimating the stresses on surface water and groundwater sources separately confirms our speculation of abundant surface water and demonstrates a significant over-drafting/deficit of groundwater in many of the states aquifer systems. These results have implications for identifying new opportunities for reallocation of surface water use to reduce groundwater pumping and improve water sustainability in the region. Seasonal fluctuations in surface water supply and water withdrawals for irrigation highlight the fact that the water system is under more stress during the summer season. This observation underscores the need for infrastructure for short-term surface water storage in agricultural regions. The water budget analysis presented here can be useful for stakeholders in developing water management plans and can also help to inform the development of a water code that will enable Louisiana to successfully manage and conserve its water resources for the future.

Climate-induced mortality of Siberian pine and fir in the Lake Baikal Watershed, Siberia

Siberian pine (Pinus sibirica) and fir (Abies sibirica) (so called “dark needle conifers”, DNC) showed decreased radial growth increment within the Lake Baikal watershed since the 1980s with increasing mortality recorded since the year 2000. Tree ring width was strongly correlated with vapor pressure deficit, aridity and root zone moisture. Water stress from droughts made trees more susceptible to insect attacks causing mortality in about 10% of DNC stands within the Lake Baikal watershed.Within Siberia DNC mortality increased in the southern part of the DNC range. Biogeographically, tree mortality was located within the DNC – forest-steppes transition. Tree mortality was significantly correlated with drought and soil moisture anomalies. Within the interior of the DNC range mortality occurred within relief features with high water stress risk (i.e., steep convex south facing slopes with shallow well-drained soils). In general, DNC mortality in Siberia was induced by increased aridity and severe drought (inciting factors) in synergy with biotic attacks (contributing factor). In future climate scenarios with predicted increase in aridity DNC could be eliminated from the southern part of its current range and will be replaced by drought-resistant conifers and broadleaf species (e.g., Larix sibirica, Pinus silvestris, and Betula pubescence).

Water resources stress assessment and risk early warning–a case of Hebei Province China

In most parts of China, water resources development and utilization has reached or exceeded the international warning level, especially in the northern arid and semi-arid regions, the serious water stress have aroused worldwide concerns. Many issues of water resources are closely and some inseparably associated with human activities. In this study, the water footprint (WF) and related indicators were applied as comprehensive indicators to assess real water use by humans from the consumption perspective. A Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model (FCE) was used for the evaluation in its role to assess water stress. And the index system of water stress assessment including four aspects, namely water supply and demand balance, socio-economy, agricultural production and ecological environment was established. Taking the case of Hebei province of China where there is serious conflict between water supply and demand, water stress assessment of all eleven administrative areas for the period 2000–2013 was analyzed. The findings showed that water stress was denoted by three levels, namely high water stress (red zone), general water stress (yellow zone) and low water stress (blue zone), which lays the foundation of the further research on water risk warning. According to the results of water stress assessment and the socio-economic development trends of Hebei, a Markov Chain Risk Warning model was built to describe the risk state of water system and to predict the transition probability of future states. This was intended to focus on the possibility that water stress levels might change into higher water stress level. The current study aims at extending earlier research by making a first step from water footprint estimation towards water stress assessment and providing reference for scientific management of water resources in arid and semi-arid regions.

A comprehensive analysis of blue water scarcity from the production, consumption, and water transfer perspectives

The issue of growing water scarcity has been increasingly perceived as a global systemic risk. To solve it, an integrated approach considering different perspectives of water scarcity is at a premise. In this study, we developed an approach to calculate the blue water scarcity (BWS) and integrated the production, consumption, and water transfer perspectives into a single framework. The results are as follows: The average BWS in the Hetao irrigation district was 0.491 during the 2001–2010 year period, which was much larger than the threshold of 0.30, indicating a high water stress level. From the production perspective, the agricultural sector was the largest contributor to regional water scarcity and the average BWS was as high as 0.479. From the consumption perspective, BWS related to virtual water export was much larger than that related to water consumption for making products to be consumed locally and the values were 0.422 and 0.069, respectively. Under the influence of physical and virtual water transfer, BWS changed from 0.242 (medium to high water stress level) to 0.491 (high water stress level). Strategies for reducing agricultural water consumption, such as increasing crop water productivity, improving irrigation efficiency, and promoting more reasonable irrigation water price, could be adopted in the Hetao irrigation district to alleviate regional BWS. Compared with physical and virtual water import, the virtual water export played a more important role in influencing the regional water scarcity, and the increase in crop water productivity, decrease in crop export volume, or adjustment of trade pattern from water-intensive crops to water-extensive ones could be feasible measures to decrease virtual water export for lower water stress, while the trade-offs in the product-consuming regions should be considered.

Simulating soybean productivity under rainfed conditions for major soil types using APEX model in East Central Mississippi

Knowledge of soybean yield constraints under rainfed conditions on major soil types in East Central Mississippi would assist growers in the region to effectively utilize the benefits of water/irrigation management. The objectives of this study were to use the Agricultural Policy/Environmental eXtender (APEX) agro-ecosystem model to simulate rainfed soybean grain yield (GY) for nine major soils during 14 years (2002–2015) and then to evaluate selected model inputs/outputs in relation to irrigation management that may decrease difference in simulated GY among the different soils. Values for GY ranged broadly from 2.24 to 6.14Mgha−1 across soils and years, giving a maximum yield difference of 3.90Mgha−1. For the average GY of nine soils, the range was from 3.52 to 5.42Mgha−1 over 14 years. Averaged across 14 years, GY ranged from 3.66 to 4.90Mgha−1 across the nine soils and was affected by difference in soil texture (clay and sand percentages) and soil available water content (AWC). Simulations revealed relatively high water stress during the R4, R5 and R6 stages of plant development (early- to mid-fruit development), suggesting great potential to enhance soybean yield if some irrigation is provided during these critical water stress periods; whereas, the potential was accordingly less in the normal and wet years. Results indicated installing irrigation on Griffith, Sumter or Demopolis soils would have a large impact through increased crop productivity and yield stability.

USING BARE-ROOT AND ROOTSTOCK SEEDLINGS FROM NATURAL REGENERATION OF CEDRELA FISSILIS

ABSTRACT The success of forest creation relies on seedling availability and quality. The aim of this research is to assess the possible use of rootstock and bare-root seedlings of Cedrela fissilis obtained from natural regeneration for direct field planting. We used Generalized Linear models to assess survival and Hierarchical Models to assess height growth over one year after planting. Initial root-collar diameter (RCD) and treatment (rootstock or bare-root) affected survival and growth. Rootstock and larger seedlings presented higher levels of survival and growth. Higher seedling quality in the rootstock treatment is due to higher water stress tolerance. Rootstock seedlings with more than 1 cm of initial RCD had over 80% of survival probability, while small bare-root seedlings had mean survival probability as low as 20%. Rootstock seedlings grew as much as fourfold more than bare-root. Using natural regeneration of C. fissilis as a source of rootstock seedlings may be a cheap alternative for forest restoration and enrichment planting projects.

Validation of an online system for the continuous monitoring of tree water status for sustainable irrigation managements in olive (Olea europaea L.)

As a result of climate change a large reduction of agricultural water through improved irrigation management is a major need for agriculture sustainability. To this aim, always more sensitive sensors to monitor plant water status have been developed in recent years. Among them, the leaf patch clamp pressure probes are very promising for water management of olive but until now have been tested only in few environmental and management conditions.In this work these sensors have been tested for two consecutive years on two completely different management systems: a traditional rainfed orchard and a super high density (SHD) drip irrigated orchard. Within the SHD orchard the probes have been installed on two different genotypes characterize by different vigor and productive potential.Stem water potential and gases exchange have been measured at regular intervals and used as reference to detect water status of the trees.The high correlation observed between the leaf patch clamp pressure probes and Ψswp, independently from the year and the treatment, confirmed the high potential of the continuous system.The inversion of the daily curve of the leaf patch clamp pressure probes reading was observed when Ψswp decreased under the value of −2.2/−2.5MPa suggesting the possibility to use this indicator to detect high water stress levels. Anyway, considering that at this level of stress the plants had already strongly reduced the gas exchanges by 40–50% with respect to their values at Ψswp above −2MPa, with consequence on carbohydrate production that can affect productivity, rise the need to find other indicators that enable to differentiate water status at lower stress levels. From the result of this work a promising indicator seems the relative increase of the daily minimum value of the leaf patch clamp pressure probe readings, as suggested by its correlation with Ψswp.

Towards more spatially explicit assessments of virtual water flows: linking local water use and scarcity to global demand of Brazilian farming commodities

Global consumption of farming commodities is an important driver of water demand in regions of production. This is the case in Brazil, which has emerged as one of the main producers of globally traded farming commodities. Traditional methods to assess environmental implications of this demand rely on international trade material flows at country resolution; we argue for the need of finer scales that capture spatial heterogeneity in environmental variables in the regions of production, and that account for differential sourcing within the borders of a country of production. To illustrate this, we obtain virtual water flows from Brazilian municipalities to countries of consumption, by allocating high-resolution water footprints of sugarcane and soy production to spatially-explicit material trade flows. We found that this approach results in differences of virtual water use estimations of over 20% when compared to approaches that disregard spatial heterogeneity in sourcing patterns, for three of the main consumers of the analysed crops. This discrepancy against methods using national resolution in trade flows is determined by national heterogeneity in water resources, and differential sourcing. To illustrate the practical implications of this approach, we relate virtual water flows to water stress, identifying where global demand for water coincides with high levels of water stress. For instance, the virtual water flows for Brazilian sugarcane sourced by China were disproportionally less associated to areas with higher water stress when compared to those of the EU, due to EU’s much higher reliance on sugarcane from water scarce areas in Northeast Brazil. Our findings indicate that the policy relevance of current assessments of virtual water flows that rely on trade data aggregated at the national level may be hampered, as they do not capture the spatial heterogeneity in water resources, water use and water management options.

Problems with water use in countries of East, South and Central Asia

The role of East, South and Central Asia in the world development is shown. The current per capita availability of water resources is calculated for the countries of the region. It is found that on the whole for the territory under investigation the availability of water resources is more than twice as small as the world’s average indicator and that more than 1.5 billion people live in conditions of water stress and deficit. It is pointed out that by the year 2010 more than 70% of the population lived in conditions of high pressure on water resources, and 225 million people lived under very high and critical water stress conditions. The current pattern of water use in the countries of Asia is calculated, the dominant role of the agrarian sector is identified. An analysis is made of the measures for increasing the water availability level of the population and the economy: an increase in agricultural productivity of water resources, waste water reuse, use of saline waters, and the construction of reservoirs. Attention is given to an active construction of dams by China in the upper reaches of the Mekong which is causing distrust and tension in downstream countries. Statistical data on cooperation and conflicts in international basins of Asia is reported. It is shown that in the 20 th century the basins of the Indus and Ganges rivers experienced the largest number of water conflicts as compared to all the international basins of the world; information regarding an acute struggle for water resources in Central Asia is also provided. It is concluded that in view of an ever increasing deficit of water resources, cooperation is the only alternative for Asian countries.

Potential Use of Water Associated with Conventional Oil Production and Sea Water as Base Fluids for Hydraulic Fracturing Operations: Effect of Water Chemistry on Crosslinking and Breaking Behaviors of Guar Gum-Based Fracturing Fluid Formulations

Even though water consumption per hydraulic fracturing (or fracturing) job is relatively low; nearly all of the fresh water used for fracturing in California is in the regions of high water stress such as San Jouquin and Los Angeles Basins. However, water availability should not be a concern as huge volumes of water are being produced along with oil and gas from conventional formations (i.e. associated water) in the Kern County of California, a region where most of the fracturing activities take place. This associated water can potentially be used for preparing fracturing fluids in stimulating the unconventional formations. The present study reports on the relevant investigation done in this area of interest.The results suggest that associated water chemistry has limited effect on the viscosity of cross-linked formulations. However, guar gum concentration was found to affect the breaking behaviors of cross-linked fracturing fluid formulations. The new type of commercially available biodegradable breaker was found to be effective in breaking the tested cross-linked formulations at elevated temperature which was as high as 85°C (185°F). Both crosslinking and breaking behaviors of fracturing fluid formulations evaluated in this study were found comparable to the behaviors of commonly used cross-linked formulation (guar gum + 2% potassium chloride). These results suggest that both the associated water (i.e. water resulting from regional conventional oil production activites) and sea water (offshore oil fields) could serve as alternative sources of base fluid for use in fracturing jobs without putting significant burden on precious regional fresh water resources.

Cotton water-deficit stress, age, and cultivars as moderating factors of cotton fleahopper abundance and yield loss

Field experiments were conducted in 2012 and 2013 during drought conditions in South Texas and the Texas High Plains to test whether cotton water-deficit stress, age, and cultivars are moderating and interacting factors that affect cotton fleahopper, Pseudatomoscelis seriatus (Reuter) (Hemiptera: Miridae), abundance and yield loss. Irrigation and sequential plantings of several cultivars were used to simulate a range of water stress, plant ages, and cultivar variability. Cotton grown under these experimental conditions were exposed to cotton fleahopper using natural and artificial infestation. Cotton cultivars had a strong influence on cotton fleahopper abundance, with higher densities on Stoneville cultivar 5458 B2RF, which is relatively pubescent, than on the Phytogen cultivar 367 WRF, which is relatively glabrous, in South Texas (p < 0.04). But the strong cultivar effects on cotton fleahopper abundance did not correspond to yield reduction. No water stress effects on cotton fleahopper densities were observed in 2012 (p > 0.05), whereas cotton fleahopper densities increased on older cotton grown under no water stress in 2013 in South Texas (p < 0.05). In contrast, yield response was primarily sensitive to soil moisture conditions (up to 50% yield reduction when grown in dryland mimic conditions below 75% crop ET replacement, p < 0.0009). Water and cotton fleahopper stress synergies were detected but variable, with greatest lint yield loss attributable to cotton fleahopper seen in cotton grown in high water stress conditions in the High Plains (p < 0.05). Yield trends were consistent across cultivars (no interaction with cultivar), even though cotton fleahopper populations varied significantly across cultivars and exceeded regional economic thresholds beginning the second week of squaring (p < 0.05).

Challenges to the human right to water and to the sustainability of services in Santa Cruz, Cabo Verde

Abstract Ensuring access to water in adequate quantity and quality for human consumption at a fair and affordable price constitutes a supra-national commitment in the declaration of the human right to water and sanitation. In order to provide this service to society, financial resources are required to encourage new investment, maintenance and equipment replacement, adequate regulatory practices and a consistent legal framework. This article is based on a study of the affordability of water services by customers in the municipality of Santa Cruz, located on the island of Santiago in Cabo Verde, a country of high water stress and weak financial resources, in order to evaluate how socioeconomic conditions affect the realization of the human right to water. Data on socio-economic conditions, quality of services and affordability of clients was collected using survey tools, aiming to identify the need for differential treatment among consumers, requiring appropriate mechanisms of social solidarity to establish equity in access to services and, at the same time, ensure full cost recovery of services by the service provider.

Water Availability for Shale Gas Development in Sichuan Basin, China.

Unconventional shale gas development holds promise for reducing the predominant consumption of coal and increasing the utilization of natural gas in China. While China possesses some of the most abundant technically recoverable shale gas resources in the world, water availability could still be a limiting factor for hydraulic fracturing operations, in addition to geological, infrastructural, and technological barriers. Here, we project the baseline water availability for the next 15 years in Sichuan Basin, one of the most promising shale gas basins in China. Our projection shows that continued water demand for the domestic sector in Sichuan Basin could result in high to extremely high water stress in certain areas. By simulating shale gas development and using information from current water use for hydraulic fracturing in Sichuan Basin (20,000-30,000 m(3) per well), we project that during the next decade water use for shale gas development could reach 20-30 million m(3)/year, when shale gas well development is projected to be most active. While this volume is negligible relative to the projected overall domestic water use of ∼36 billion m(3)/year, we posit that intensification of hydraulic fracturing and water use might compete with other water utilization in local water-stress areas in Sichuan Basin.

Sensitivity to high temperature and water stress in recalcitrant Baccaurea ramiflora seeds.

Southeast Asia experiences one of the highest rates of deforestation in the tropics due to agricultural expansion, logging, habitat fragmentation and urbanization. As tropical rainforests harbour abundant recalcitrant-seeded species, it is important to understand how recalcitrant seeds respond to deforestation and fragmentation. Baccaurea ramiflora is a recalcitrant-seeded species, widely distributed in Southeast Asian tropical rainforest. In this study, B. ramiflora seeds were sown in three plots, one in a nature reserve and two in disturbed holy hill forests, to investigate seed germination and seedling establishment in the field, while laboratory experiments were conducted to investigate the effects of high temperature and water stress on germination. It was found that seed germination and seedling establishment in B. ramiflora were clearly reduced in holy hills compared to the nature reserve, although the seeds were only moderately to minimally recalcitrant. This was potentially caused by increased temperature and decreased moisture in holy hills, for laboratory experiments showed that seed germination was greatly inhibited by temperatures ≥35°C or water potentials ≤-0.5MPa, and depressed by heat treatment at 40°C when the continuous heating period lasted for 240h or daily periodic heating exceeded 10h. Unlike orthodox seeds, which can endure much higher temperatures in the air-dried state than in the imbibed state, both blotted and immersed B. ramiflora seeds lost viability within a narrow temperature range between 50 and 60°C. As recalcitrant seeds can be neither air-dried nor heated, species producing recalcitrant seeds will suffer more than those producing orthodox seeds in germination and seedling establishment from increased temperature and decreased moisture in fragmented rainforests, which results in sensitivity of recalcitrant-seeded species to rainforest fragmentation.

The water footprint of staple crop trade under climate and policy scenarios

Trade in staple crop commodities has become increasingly important in the global food system, with ramifications for both food security and water resources sustainability. It is thus essential to understand how the water footprint (WF) of staple crop trade may change in the future. To this end, we project international staple crop trade and its WF under climate and policy scenarios for the year 2030. We use the H08 global hydrologic model to determine the impact of climatic changes to staple crop yields and evapotranspiration. Using the yield changes projected with the H08 model, we estimate the bilateral trade of staple crops using the Global Trade Analysis Project model. We combine these projections to obtain the total and blue WF of agricultural trade and global water savings (GWS) across scenarios. This approach enables us to determine the direct impact of climate change and trade liberalization—together and in isolation—on the WF of staple crop trade. Importantly, we show that trade liberalization leads to greater WF, making it a potentially important adaptation measure to a changing climate, although future work is needed to distinguish high resolution crop water use, water stress, and commodity transfers.

Managing Water Resources Under Conditions of Scarcity: On Consumers’ Willingness to Pay for Improving Water Supply Infrastructure

Conservation and efficient management of water resources is an essential ingredient for achieving sustainable development. River basins in Southern Europe are suffering from high water stress, while leakages in some areas far surpass recommended levels. This study uses the contingent valuation method in order to assess willingness to pay (WTP) by consumers in the Guadalquivir River basin in Spain for improving urban water supply infrastructure and reducing leakages. On average, individuals would be willing to pay an extra charge on their water bill ranging from €8.23 to €9.65. In addition to the expected positive effect of income on WTP, respondents with negative perceptions of their drinking water quality as well as those most affected by the economic crisis have a lower WTP. Conversely, WTP is higher for men and respondents showing greater commitment to the environment. These results provide policymakers with information that might help them to improve water-pricing policies in a context of severe water scarcity, especially considering the principle of cost recovery introduced by the EU Water Framework Directive in pricing water services.

Public–private partnerships in the water reuse sector: a global assessment

Unlike contracts involving water provision, involving the private sector in water reuse projects is not seen as politically contentious. Water reuse remains a small element of public–private partnership contracts in general, but their frequency of use has increased, notably since 2005. These contracts are typically awarded in middle-to-high-income countries, and there is a relation between contract awards and water stress. In terms of population served, 5% of contracts were awarded in areas without water stress and 77% in areas with high water stress.

Revealing Water Stress by the Thermal Power Industry in China Based on a High Spatial Resolution Water Withdrawal and Consumption Inventory.

This study reveals the spatial distribution of water withdrawal and consumption by thermal power generation and the associated water stress at catchment level in China based on a high-resolution geodatabase of electric generating units and power plants. We identified three groups of regions where the baseline water stress exerted by thermal power generation is comparatively significant: (1) the Hai River Basin/East Yellow River Basin in the north; (2) some arid catchments in Xinjiang Autonomous Region in the northwest; and (3) the coastal city clusters in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearly River Delta, and Zhejiang Province. Groundwater stress is also detected singularly in a few aquifers mainly in the Hai River Basin and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin. As China accelerates its pace of coal mining and coal-fired power generation in the arid northwest regions, the energy/water priorities in catchments under high water stress are noteworthy. We conclude that promotion of advanced water-efficient technologies in the energy industry and more systematic analysis of the water stress of thermal power capacity expansion in water scarce regions in inland China are needed. More comprehensive and transparent data monitoring and reporting are essential to facilitate such water stress assessment.

A trait‐mediated, neighbourhood approach to quantify climate impacts on successional dynamics of tropical rainforests

Summary Second‐growth forests account for 40% of the terrestrial forest carbon sink and represent the dominant forest cover in tropical regions. Uncertainties in predicting responses of these ecosystems to climate change arise from high tree species diversity, complex links between eco‐physiology and demography, and the role of ontogeny and competition in mediating individual tree responses to climate. The dynamic nature of second‐growth forests adds further uncertainty to our ability to quantify the relative importance of climate in mediating successional trajectories. To address these uncertainties, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian neighbourhood modelling approach that quantifies how the joint response of two key functional axes, wood density and specific leaf area (SLA), modulate impacts of inter‐annual variation in seasonal water stress (number of days during dry season &gt; 1 kPa vapour pressure deficit) and night‐time temperature on growth and survival of small (5–10 cm dbh) and large (≥ 10 cm dbh) trees for 171 rainforest species in 6 s‐growth and 2 old‐growth 1‐ha mapped stands. We use model results to examine potential climate impacts on the successional trajectories of these stands. High water stress reduced large tree growth but favoured growth of small trees. Drought also reduced tree survival for both large and small trees. Tree species with high wood density suffered lower growth reductions and had higher survival under water stress. High SLA magnified the negative effects of water stress on tree growth and survival. Across all tree sizes, high night‐time temperatures did not influence growth or survival. Simulated successional trajectories under different climate scenarios using these results suggest that multi‐annual droughts will have substantial impacts of the successional trajectories of tropical forests, leading to lower stem numbers, basal area and biomass. Sustained drought will also shift functional composition of second‐growth forest by favouring species with low SLA which tend to dominate in late stages of succession. By incorporating trait‐mediated effects on key drivers of tree demography and successional dynamics, our approach provides an integrated perspective on interspecific variation in vulnerability to drought and consequences for successional trajectories in tropical rainforests. Our results suggest that multi‐annual drought stress will significantly alter structure, composition and dynamics of second‐growth forests and, from a functional perspective, accelerate succession. However, this effect may be hampered by dispersal limitation of old‐growth species into second‐growth forests.