High-temperature Anomaly Research Articles

Temporal connections between extreme precipitation and humid heat

Abstract Individually, extreme humid heat and extreme precipitation events can trigger widespread socioeconomic impacts which disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. These impacts might become greater when both events occur in close temporal proximity, for example if emergency responses to heat stress casualties are hindered by flooded roads. Improved understanding of the probabilities and physical mechanisms associated with these events’ temporal compounding might uncover causal interrelationships offering avenues for improving early warning systems and projecting changes in a warmer climate. We explore sequential humid heat and rainfall relationships during the local summer season, identifying two classes of temporal relationships. We find that high wet bulb temperature (WBT) anomalies in most mid- to high-latitude and tropical regions are preceded by anomalously low precipitation. In contrast, hot and dry subtropical regions generally experience elevated WBTs during and, to a somewhat lesser extent, before extreme precipitation events. High WBT events are followed by positive precipitation anomalies in many land regions.

Spatiotemporal Facility-Level Patterns of Summer Heat Exposure, Vulnerability, and Risk in United States Prison Landscapes.

Heat is associated with increased risk of morbidity and mortality. People who are incarcerated are especially vulnerable to heat exposure due to demographic characteristics and their conditions of confinement. Evaluating heat exposure in prisons, and the characteristics of exposed populations and prisons, can elucidate prison-level risk to heat exposure. We leveraged a high-resolution air temperature data set to evaluate short and long-term patterns of heat metrics for 1,614 prisons in the United States from 1990 to 2023. We found that the most heat-exposed facilities and states were mostly in the Southwestern United States, while the prisons with the highest temperature anomalies from the historical record were in the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, Texas, and parts of the Midwest. Prisons in the Pacific Northwest, the Northeast, and upper Midwest had the highest occurrences of days associated with an increased risk of heat-related mortality. We also estimated differences in heat exposure at prisons by facility and individual-level characteristics. We found higher proportions of non-white and Hispanic populations in the prisons with higher heat exposure. Lastly, we found that heat exposure was higher in prisons with any of nine facility-level characteristics that may modify risk to heat. This study brings together distinct measures of exposure, vulnerability, and risk, which would each inform unique strategies for heat-interventions. Community leaders and policymakers should carefully consider which measures they want to apply, and include the voices of directly impacted people, as the differing metrics and perspectives will have implications for who is included in fights for environmental justice.

Using the Contrast Boundary Concentration of LST for the Earthquake Approach Assessment in Turkey, 6–8 February 2023

Land surface temperature (LST) variations and anomalies associated with tectonic plate movements have been documented before large earthquakes. In this work, we propose that spatially extended and dynamic linear zones of high temperature anomalies at the Earth’s surface coinciding with faults in the Earth’s crust may be used as a predictor of an approaching earthquake. LST contrast boundary concentration maps are suggested to be a possible indicator for analyzing temperature changes before and after seismic sequences. Here, we analyze the concentration of LST contrast boundaries estimated from Landsat 8–9 data for the East Anatolian Fault Zone in the vicinity of epicenters of the destructive earthquakes with magnitudes up to 7.8 Mw that occurred in February 2023. A spatial relationship between earthquake epicenters and the maximum concentration of LST boundaries at azimuths of 0° and 90° was found to strengthen as the earthquake approaches and weaken after it. It was found that 92% of epicenters are located at up to 5 km distance from zones of maximum LST boundary concentration. The evidence presented in this work supports the idea that LST may provide valuable information for seismic hazard assessment before large earthquakes.

High-temperature magnetic anomaly via suppression of antisite disorder through synthesis route modification in a Kitaev candidate Cu2IrO3

By incorporating inert KCl into the Na2IrO3 + 2CuCl → Cu2IrO3 + 2NaCl topochemical reaction, we significantly reduced the synthesis temperature of Cu2IrO3 from the 350 °C reported in previous studies to 170 °C. This adjustment decreased the Cu/Ir antisite disorder concentration in Cu2IrO3 from ∼19% to ∼5%. Furthermore, magnetic susceptibility measurements of the present Cu2IrO3 sample revealed a weak ferromagnetic-like anomaly with hysteresis at a magnetic transition temperature of ∼70 K. Our research indicates that the spin-disordered ground state reported in chemically disordered Cu2IrO3 is an extrinsic phenomenon, rather than an intrinsic one, underscoring the pivotal role of synthetic chemistry in understanding the application of Kitaev model to realistic materials.

Numerical simulation research on thermal insulation performance of composite heat-insulation zone structure in hydrothermal high-temperature mine

In hydrothermal high-temperature abnormal mines, the composite heat-insulation zone structure, formed through a combination of guniting and grouting, serves to mitigate heat dissipation from the surrounding rock into the airflow. To comprehensively understand the thermal insulation performance of the composite heat-insulation zone structure, this study employs numerical simulation to analyze the following aspects: the variation in the temperature field within the surrounding rock of the roadway without insulation, the influence of structural parameters of the composite heat-insulation zone on temperature distribution in the surrounding rock of the roadway, and the thermal insulation effectiveness of the composite heat-insulation zone with varying structures. The findings indicate that the temperature distribution within the surrounding rock of the roadway lacking a heat-insulation zone is relatively uniform. However, as ventilation time extends, the heat regulation zone within the surrounding rock gradually extends deeper, ultimately forming an elliptical cooling area. The composite heat-insulation zone structure effectively mitigates heat transfer from deeper surrounding rock to the roadway wall, consequently altering the scope of the roadway's heat regulation zone. Enhancing the thermal insulation performance of the composite heat-insulation zone structure can be achieved by increasing the thickness of the thermal insulation layer, adjusting grouting rate and depth, and reducing the thermal conductivity of insulation materials. The thermal insulation effectiveness of the thermal insulation layer surpasses that of the grouting layer, with its performance primarily influenced by the thermal conductivity of the materials used. Simulation results demonstrate that the composite heat-insulation zone structure reduces the maximum heat flux on the roadway wall from 47.4 to 37.7 W/m2, resulting in a 20% reduction in heat transfer from deeper surrounding rock. These findings offer valuable insights for implementing thermal insulation techniques in hydrothermal high-temperature anomaly mines.

National-scale nighttime high-temperature anomalies from Landsat-8 OLI images

Identifying and characterizing the distribution, abundance, and structural composition of national high-temperature anomalies (HTAs) are essential for mitigating natural disasters, regulating industrial emissions, and assessing societal impacts. The Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) provides a unique capability for monitoring nighttime HTAs (N-HTAs) at high spatial resolutions without contamination from reflected solar radiation. However, the extraction of N-HTAs from nighttime OLI imagery poses significant challenges due to the interference of bright up-light, especially for smaller and cooler hotspots, and the absence of spectral information on backgrounds complicates the classification of N-HTAs at night. Here, we explored the background noise characteristics of Bands 2–7 in nighttime OLI imagery and developed an object-oriented approach for the enhanced detection of small and cool N-HTAs. Furthermore, we introduced a deep learning model that leverages high-resolution aerial imagery and land cover data to categorize N-HTAs into industrial sources, living sources, vegetation fires, and others. Applying these methodologies to nighttime OLI imagery from 2013 to 2020 allowed us to map and classify N-HTAs across the contiguous United States (CONUS), facilitating the creation of a detailed spatiotemporal inventory of industrial N-HTAs. Our analysis revealed that N-HTAs from living sources dominate the total N-HTAs, with a pronounced holiday effect, and gas flaring activities in oil and gas development areas account for >85 % of industrial N-HTAs. The outcomes of this national-scale investigation underscore the significant potential and practical utility of nighttime OLI imagery for N-HTA monitoring and advocate for expanding the spatial and temporal coverage of nighttime OLI observations globally.

Widespread Coral Bleaching and Mass Mortality of Reef-Building Corals in Southern Mexican Pacific Reefs Due to 2023 El Niño Warming

In May 2023, oceanic and atmospheric anomalies indicated El Niño conditions in the eastern Pacific, followed by coral bleaching in coral communities and reefs of Huatulco. We conducted surveys and sampled coral reef communities from late June to mid–August of 2023 to evaluate the intensity and extent of the changes associated with the warming event. From January of 2023, Huatulco experienced positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies; however, beginning in June, the high-temperature anomalies became extreme (>31 °C; ~2 °C above historical records). These high temperatures resulted in extensive coral bleaching in middle–late June and mortality from middle–late July (>50–93%). In addition, the area experienced significant reductions in echinoderm abundance and fish biomass. In 2023, severe bleaching affected coral systems in the Central Mexican Pacific, Gulf of Mexico, and Mexican Caribbean, making this the most devastating marine heatwave event, simultaneously impacting coral reefs across Mexico’s Pacific and Atlantic coasts.

The impact of interactions between various systems caused by three consecutive years of La Nina events on the abnormal summer high temperatures in China in 2022

In the summer of 2022, like in many other regions of the world, an unprecedented period of continuous high-temperature weather occurred in eastern China. The degree and duration of this event far exceeded normal standards. Between 2020 and 2022, the tropical Pacific experienced the most significant three-year consecutive La Nina event recorded in recent decades. We investigate linkages between these events: the high-temperature response in eastern China and Asia under the background of such La Nina events. Development of summer La Nina events contributed to a high-temperature heat wave during the summer of 2022. Rapid development of these events in the third year exacerbated negative Indian Ocean Dipole phases because of energy accumulation from abnormal easterly winds. The combined effects of the negative Indian Ocean Dipole phase and La Nina provided background field support that strengthened the West Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) and the Iranian High, leading to high terrestrial temperature anomalies. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of the vertical velocity in the middle and low latitudes of the tropical Indian Ocean and the Asian continent reveals the first two empirical orthogonal function modes to be conducive to the strengthening of Walker circulation in 2022. These two main modes jointly reflect the rising movement of the equatorial East Indian Ocean and South China Sea in 2022, and the sinking movement to the west of the Tibet Plateau and eastern China, which was conducive to generating high temperatures in eastern China. Finally, the South Asian High was affected by the La Nina event that lasted for three years, showing a strong trend towards the north, thus making an important contribution to this high temperature.

Gas-Liquid Interface Route to Hybrid Copper Bromine Perovskite Single-Crystal Membrane with Dielectric Transitions and Ferromagnetic Exchanges.

Single-crystal membranes (SCMs) show great promise in the fields of sensors, light-emitting diodes, and photodetection. However, the growth of a large-area single-crystal membranes is challenging. We report a new organic-inorganic SCMs [HCMA]2CuBr4 (HCMA = cyclohexanemethylamine) crystallized at the gas-liquid interface. It also has low-temperature ferromagnetic order, high-temperature dielectric anomalies, and narrow band gap indirect semiconductor properties. Specifically, the reversible phase transition of the compound occurs at 350/341 K on cooling/heating and exhibits dielectric anomalies and stable switching performance near the phase transition temperature. The ferromagnetic exchange interaction in the inorganic octahedra and the organic layer enables ferromagnetic ordering at low-temperature 10 K. Finally, the single crystal exhibits an indirect semiconducting property with a narrow band gap of 0.99 eV. Such rich multichannel physical properties make it a potential application in photodetection, information storage and sensors.

What caused large ozone variabilities in three megacity clusters in eastern China during 2015–2020?

Abstract. Due to a robust emission control policy, significant reductions in major air pollutants, such as PM2.5, SO2, NO2, and CO, were observed in China between 2015 and 2020. On the other hand, during the same period, there was a notable increase in ozone (O3) concentrations, making it a prominent air pollutant in eastern China. The annual mean concentration of maximum daily 8 h average (MDA8) O3 exhibited alarming linear increases of 2.4, 1.1, and 2.0 ppb yr−1 (ppb is for parts per billion) in three megacity clusters: Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH), the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and the Pearl River Delta (PRD), respectively. Meanwhile, there was a significant 3-fold increase in the number of O3-exceeding days, defined as MDA8 O3 > 75 ppb. Our analysis indicated that the upward increases in the annual mean concentration of MDA8 were primarily driven by the rise in consecutive O3-exceeding days. There were expansions of high O3 in urban centers to rural areas accompanied by a saturation effect so that MDA8 O3 concentrations at the high-O3 stations in 2015 remained nearly constant at 100 ppb. Last, we found a close association between O3 episodes with 4 or more consecutive O3-exceeding days and the position and strength of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the northwest Pacific and the West Pacific subtropical high (WPSH). The TC and WPSH contributed to meteorological conditions characterized by clear skies, subsiding air motion, high vertical stability in the lower troposphere, increased solar radiation, and a positive temperature anomaly at the surface. These favorable meteorological conditions greatly facilitated the formation of O3. Thus, we propose that the worsening O3 increases observed in the BTH, YRD, and PRD regions from 2015 to 2020 can be mostly attributed to enhanced photochemical O3 production resulting from an increased occurrence of meteorological conditions with high solar radiation and positive temperature anomalies under the influence of the WPSH and TCs.

High Temperature Accelerates Onset Speed of the 2022 Unprecedented Flash Drought Over the Yangtze River Basin

AbstractThe Yangtze River Basin experienced one of the worst flash droughts on record during 2022 summer, but the relative contributions of precipitation deficit and high temperature to drought onset speed and intensity are difficult to separate due to the compounding feature of hot and dry extremes caused by persistent high‐pressure anomalies. Based on high‐resolution land surface model ensemble simulations with specified meteorological conditions that reproduce precipitation deficit and/or high temperature anomalies during 2022, we find the precipitation deficit is the dominant factor for triggering the flash drought. Meanwhile, high temperature further accelerates the decrease of soil moisture and intensifies drought condition by increasing evapotranspiration, which contributes 37% ± 14% (31% ± 15%) and 36% ± 11% (30% ± 15%) of the drought onset speed and intensity over upper reach (middle and lower reaches). Our study reveals the nontrivial role of high temperature in intensifying the 2022 Yangtze flash drought, which might be more significant in the warmer future.

Exponential increases in high-temperature extremes in North America

Global warming in the 21st century will alter the frequency of extreme climatic events, such as high-temperature anomalies and “heat waves”. Observations of extreme high temperatures during recent decades have detected upward trends in their frequency of occurrence, and recent state-of-the-art Global Climate Models (GCMs), e.g., Climate Model Intercomparison Projects (CMIPs), notably CMIP5 and CMIP6, have predicted acceleration of temperature trends and high-temperature events by 2100 under projected greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. Hence, the 21st century is expected to experience substantial shifts in the occurrence of extreme events, where present-day, extreme-but-rare high-temperature events will become common during the summer months. The increasing frequency of extreme heat may affect the health and resiliency of social, biological, and infrastructure systems in many regions worldwide, underscoring the need for accurate and reliable long-term assessments of climatic change across global and regional scales. So far, many investigations of high-temperature extremes have been carried out under end-point scenarios, e.g., by comparing GCM-projected changes in the frequency of high-temperature extremes expected in the late 21st century to the late 20th century. In this study, we use extreme value theory and decades of observations of high-temperature extremes at thousands of meteorological stations across North America to investigate continuous shifts in the frequency of extreme high-temperature events due to projected local warming trends. We find that the odds of exceedance of 50-year extreme high-temperature events increases exponentially with increases in mean local temperature. At a majority of the stations studied here, a local mean temperature increase of 0.5–1 ^{circ }C can double the odds of exceedance of 50-year extreme high-temperature events. Based on time-dependent temperature projections, the odds of exceedance of 50-year extreme high-temperature events doubles approximately every 20 years (or sooner) for sim 96% of the stations. Moreover, we find that, for sim 80% of the stations in North America, investigated here, the 50-year extreme high-temperature events will be exceeded annually before 2100.

Predictability of the unprecedented 2022 late summer Yangtze River Valley and Tibetan Plateau heatwaves by the NCEP CFSv2

By using the one-month‑lead predictions from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), this study evaluates the predictability of the unprecedented heatwaves hitting the Yangtze River Valley (YRV) and Tibetan Plateau (TP) in 2022 late summer. CFSv2 successfully reproduces the central China heatwaves, but shows distinct performances between the YRV and TP. Specifically, CFSv2 exhibits stronger ability to capture TP heatwaves that is close to the highest historical prediction record, whereas the predicted extremity of the YRV heatwaves is underestimated compared to the observations. The accurate simulation of the intense upper-level circumglobal teleconnection (CGT) pattern, particularly for the East Asia CGT center (CGT EA), is essential for the success predictions of high temperature anomalies, due to the strong and accurate linkage between CGT EA and YRV/TP heatwaves in CFSv2. The intense CGT pattern is associated with a stronger model response to developing La Niña in CFSv2, quite different from the observed leading contribution from the unprecedented Pakistan rainfall. The impacts of developing La Niña and Pakistan rainfall on the intense CGT pattern are significantly overestimated and underestimated by CFSv2, respectively. Additionally, the La Niña-forced enhancement of lower-level western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH) plays another important role in YRV heatwaves, but the reproduction of WPSH intensity is unable to reflect YRV heatwaves in CFSv2 due to the southeastward shift of the predicted WPSH location, which should be responsible for the underestimated YRV heatwaves. The model improvements in aspect of the Pakistan rainfall, El Niño-Southern Oscillation–CGT linkage and lower-level WPSH location should help effectively predict the central China heatwaves in the future.

Contribution of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Barents and Yellow-Japan Seas to summer high temperature anomalies over the eastern Tibetan Plateau

In the summer of 2022, extremely high surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies occurred over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), especially the eastern TP (ETP). Using the 2022 high SAT anomaly over the ETP as an example, the present study investigates the characteristics of the variability of summer SATs over the ETP and associated oceanic forcing factors. The results reveal that the warmer sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the Barents Sea (BS) and Yellow-Japan Sea (YJS) are jointly responsible for the higher summer SATs over the ETP for the period 1961–2022 and can also explain the higher ETP SAT anomaly in the summer of 2022. The warmer BS SSTA can lead to an upper-tropospheric high-pressure anomaly around the ETP (i.e., a strengthened and northeastward-extended South Asian high) and the associated higher ETP SAT anomaly by exciting local upper-tropospheric geopotential height anomaly over the BS and accordingly modulating the downstream Rossby wave from the BS to the ETP. The warmer YJS SSTA can directly cause an upper-tropospheric high-pressure anomaly around the ETP and YJS and eventually enhance the SATs over the ETP through stimulating local upward motion and guiding the Rossby wave from the upstream region to the ETP and YJS. This mechanism can also explain the extremely high SAT anomaly over the ETP in the summer of 2022. Moreover, the BS and YJS SSTAs can effectively modulate the summer SATs over the ETP even though the absence of the effect of El Niño/La Niña. These findings may provide valuable insights into the reason for the variability of summer SATs over the TP.

Sea star wasting syndrome reaches the high Antarctic: Two recent outbreaks in McMurdo Sound.

Sea star wasting syndrome (SSWS) can cause widespread mortality in starfish populations as well as long-lasting changes to benthic community structure and dynamics. SSWS symptoms have been documented in numerous species and locations around the world, but to date there is only one record of SSWS from the Antarctic and this outbreak was associated with volcanically-driven high temperature anomalies. Here we report outbreaks of SSWS-like symptoms that affected ~30% of individuals of Odontaster validus at two different sites in McMurdo Sound, Antarctica in 2019 and 2022. Unlike many SSWS events in other parts of the world, these outbreaks were not associated with anomalously warm temperatures. Instead, we suggest they may have been triggered by high nutrient input events on a local scale. Although the exact cause of these outbreaks is not known, these findings are of great concern because of the keystone role of O. validus and the slow recovery rate of Antarctic benthic ecosystems to environmental stressors.

Effect of tuning of charge defects by K, Ba, La doping on structural and electrical behaviour of NaNbO3

The aim of this study is to highlight the impact of monovalent, divalent and trivalent substitutions on structural, and electrical properties. Creation of defects and its impact on phase transition behaviour reflected in dielectric properties makes it more interesting. Compositions (x) in the material system Na1-xAxNbO3 (where, x = 0.0 abbreviated as S0, and x = 0.05 for K1+, Ba2+, and La3+ doped samples abbreviated as S1, S2, and S3 respectively) are prepared by the conventional solid-state reaction method. Rietveld refinement of diffraction data has confirmed single-phase formation with an orthorhombic structure having Pbcm space group symmetry. FTIR spectra show the shifting of vibrational modes towards higher wave number sides with increasing valence states of dopants. SEM images of these samples show a decrease in average grain size for S1, S2, and S3, respectively. Dielectric plots from room temperature to 773K at 1 kHz, 10 kHz, and 100 kHz for x = 0.0 have shown two prominent anomalies, one at 404K and the other one at 610K. The low-temperature anomaly has disappeared in samples S1, S2, and S3, whereas the high-temperature sharp anomaly at 610K for sample S0 has shifted to 618K for sample S1 and vanished for samples S2 and S3. Tanδ with temperature plots show two anomalies for samples S0, S1, and S2, whereas for S3, only one broad anomaly is observed. Conductivity has been found to increase with doping through the equivalent concentration of iso-valent K1+ and graded off-valent Ba2+ and La3+ cations. Impedance analysis has proposed an electronic circuit model containing two parallel equivalent RC elements.

Ultrahigh thermal stability of dielectric permittivity in 0.6Bi(Mg1/2Ti1/2)O3–0.4Ba0.8Ca0.2(Ti0.875Nb0.125)O3

0.6Bi(Mg1/2Ti1/2)O3–0.4Ba0.8Ca0.2(Nb0.125Ti0.875)O3 ceramics with a pseudo-cubic structure and re-entrant dipole glass behavior have been investigated via x-ray diffraction and dielectric permittivity–temperature spectra. It shows excellent dielectric–temperature stability with small variations of dielectric permittivity (±5%, 420–802 K) and dielectric loss tangent (tanδ < 2.5%, 441–647 K) in a wide temperature range. Three dielectric anomalies are observed from 290 to 1050 K. The low-temperature, weakly coupled re-entrant relaxor behavior was described using the Vogel–Fulcher law and the new glass model. The mid- and high-temperature dielectric anomalies are characterized by isothermal impedance and electrical modulus. The activation energy of both dielectric relaxation and conductivity follows the Arrhenius law in the temperature ranges of 633–753 and 833–973 K, respectively. The ultrahigh thermal stability of dielectric permittivity is attributed to the weak coupling of polar clusters, the formation of diffuse phase transition, and the local phase transition of calcium-containing perovskite. The results provide new insights into the defects behavior and the modification way of re-entrant relaxor behavior.

Evolution of summer surface ozone pollution patterns in China during 2015–2020

Surface ozone is one of the most severe air pollutants in China and is influenced by meteorological processes on multiple scales. By identifying the two dominant patterns of ozone pollution through Empirical Orthogonal Functions method, we show here that the widespread pollution processes in China may be closely related to high-pressure anomaly in North China and low-pressure anomaly in the western Pacific, respectively. The positive time period of the first pattern (PC1P) extracts the distribution characteristics of the most severe periods of ozone pollution in summer time. It is physically linked to the high-pressure anomaly in North China centered on the Huanghuai Region, which eventually induced the high-temperature anomaly and low-humidity anomaly that enhanced the photochemical reactions to elevate the ozone levels. The spatial and temporal evolution of ozone pollution during this meteorological process shows a uniform pollution characteristic in the northern region and a higher increase in ozone concentration in the Huanghuai Region. The positive time period of the second pattern (PC2P) is associated with the variation of the low-pressure anomaly in the western Pacific. It indicates uniformly high ozone pollution in the south, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MYR) and the Pearl River Delta. Our results highlight that summer ozone pollution in eastern China is closely related to weather patterns. In addition, it is noteworthy that in the positive time period, the annual growth trends of Huanghuai Region in the first pattern (PC1P) and MYR in the second pattern (PC2P) are significantly higher than the growth trends of the megacity clusters, which requires the attention of relevant policy-making authorities.

Carbon cycle extremes accelerate weakening of the land carbon sink in the late 21st century

Abstract. Increasing surface temperature could lead to enhanced evaporation, reduced soil moisture availability, and more frequent droughts and heat waves. The spatiotemporal co-occurrence of such effects further drives extreme anomalies in vegetation productivity and net land carbon storage. However, the impacts of climate change on extremes in net biospheric production (NBP) over longer time periods are unknown. Using the percentile threshold on the probability distribution curve of NBP anomalies, we computed negative and positive extremes in NBP. Here we show that due to climate warming, about 88 % of global regions will experience a larger magnitude of negative NBP extremes than positive NBP extremes toward the end of 2100, which accelerate the weakening of the land carbon sink. Our analysis indicates the frequency of negative extremes associated with declines in biospheric productivity was larger than positive extremes, especially in the tropics. While the overall impact of warming at high latitudes is expected to increase plant productivity and carbon uptake, high-temperature anomalies increasingly induce negative NBP extremes toward the end of the 21st century. Using regression analysis, we found soil moisture anomalies to be the most dominant individual driver of NBP extremes. The compound effect of hotness, dryness, and fire caused extremes at more than 50 % of the total grid cells. The larger proportion of negative NBP extremes raises a concern about whether the Earth is capable of increasing vegetation production with a growing human population and rising demand for plant material for food, fiber, fuel, and building materials. The increasing proportion of negative NBP extremes highlights the consequences not only of reduction in total carbon uptake capacity but also of conversion of land to a carbon source.

The Influence of Soil Moisture on the Historic 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave

Abstract During late June 2021, a record-breaking heatwave impacted western North America, with all-time high temperatures reported across Washington, Oregon, British Columbia, and Alberta. The heatwave was forced by a highly anomalous upper-level ridge, strong synoptic-scale subsidence, and downslope flow resulting in lower-tropospheric adiabatic warming. This study examines the impact of antecedent soil moisture on this extreme heat event. During the cool season of 2020/21, precipitation over the Pacific Northwest was above or near normal, followed by a dry spring that desiccated soils to 50%–75% of normal moisture content by early June. Low surface soil moisture affects the surface energy balance by altering the partitioning between sensible and latent heat fluxes, resulting in warmer temperatures. Using numerical model simulations of the heatwave, this study demonstrates that surface air temperatures were warmed by an average of 0.48°C as a result of dry soil moisture conditions, compared to a high-temperature anomaly of 10°–20°C during the event. Air temperatures over eastern Washington and southern British Columbia were most sensitive to soil moisture anomalies, with 0000 UTC temperature anomalies ranging from 1.2° to 2.2°C. Trajectory analysis indicated that rapid subsidence of elevated parcels prevented air parcels from being affected by surface heat fluxes over a prolonged period of time, resulting in a relatively small temperature sensitivity to soil moisture. Changes to soil moisture also altered regional pressure, low-level wind, and geopotential heights, as well as modified the marine air intrusion along the Pacific coast of Washington and Oregon. Significance Statement The record-breaking western North American heatwave of late June 2021 was preceded by below-normal soil moisture over the region. This study evaluates the role of soil moisture on the 2021 heatwave, demonstrating that the anomalous temperatures during this extreme event were not significantly increased by below-normal soil moisture.