High River Research Articles

Hydrodynamic Modelling of Severn Bore and Its Dependence on Ocean Tide and River Discharge

Owing to the high tidal range, the Severn Estuary and Bristol Channel have the potential to generate huge amounts of renewable electricity for the UK. During the flood tide, the surging water travels upstream to form the Severn Bore. This study explores the dynamics of the Severn Bore through hydrodynamic modelling, analyzing how the tidal amplitude, mean water level, and river discharge affect the bore’s intensity, reach, and sustainability. The Delft3D simulations show that the downstream tidal amplitude plays a critical role. Tides with an amplitude of less than 6 m will lead to the disappearance of the Severn Bore. The mean water level also significantly influences the bore’s propagation, with a 1.5 m drop resulting in a 15 km retreat of the bore. A high river discharge rate weakens the bore’s intensity and reduces its reach. These findings underscore the need for careful planning in tidal energy development within the Severn Estuary. Excessive exploitation of tidal energy can be detrimental to the Severn Bore and the ecological function of the estuary.

Tectonic anabranching of Brahmaputra River system: implications on survival of world’s largest inhabited river island Majuli

Brahmaputra is a large, tropical, trans-boundary river with high sediment load and has the unique distinction of possessing both largest and smallest inhabited river islands. Majuli is the largest inhabited river island situated in the Indian state of Assam and bounded by Brahmaputra on the south, Subansiri River on the northwest, and the Kherkatia River (anabranch of Brahmaputra) on the northeast. The island was formed during a flooding event in 1750 with a sudden change in the course of the Brahmaputra from a low energy meandering to a high energy braided river and subsequent capture of one of its tributaries. The island is a part of the Brahmaputra alluvium squeezed between active Himalayan and Indo-Burmese orogenic belts in an intricate tectonic regime. The dominant flow path of Brahmaputra is controlled by the crustal scale reorganization in this part of the world. The tectonic factors that controlled the anabranching process and created the island, is at present acting as the destroyer of the same by the means of unabated erosion. The erosion pattern of the two rivers viz. Brahmaputra and Subansiri were studied and areas with marked selective erosion have been found. From a combined study of satellite imaging, bathymetric survey and mapping, it is found that the lobate shaped erosions in the study areas are restricted to traces of the tectonic elements related to the Himalayan thrust system through which the rivers are trying to anabranch.

Carbonate precipitation-derived CO2 outgassing offsets the mineral weathering sink in the orogenic regime of southwestern Taiwan: Insights from triple Sr isotopes

Secondary carbonate precipitation plays a crucial role in determining the CO2 outgassing from carbonate-saturated rivers and influences the short-term terrestrial carbon cycle. The fractionation of stable isotopes has been extensively employed to quantify post-weathering reactions in rivers and assess the quantities of metals removed by secondary carbonates. However, a major challenge is that water isotopic compositions usually reflect both lithological mixing and biogeochemical fractionation, which complicates distinguishing between these signals. In this study, we applied triple Sr isotopes (87Sr/86Sr and δ88/86Sr) to determine the “unfractionated” δ88/86Sr of water. This method allowed us to precisely quantify the precipitation-derived fractionation. Our results show that a median of 48 % of Sr was incorporated into carbonates in southwestern (SW) Taiwan, corresponding to the removal of 69 % of the originally weathered Ca. This process is closely related to a significant increase in HCO3− concentration in the water. In SW Taiwan, high river discharge during wet periods typically enhances carbonate dissolution, leading to increased carbonate precipitation along with CO2 outgassing. Thus, hydrology and river discharge constraints significantly influence CaCO3 precipitation and CO2 outgassing processes and their associated CO2 budget. Using a machine learning model, we estimated that the precipitation-derived CO2 outgassing from rivers is +7.9 × 108 mol per year. This flux is nearly twice the long-term (~10 kyr) emission flux of +4.2 ± 1.4 × 108 mol per year in this region. This indicates that precipitation-driven CO2 emissions from rivers constitute a significant carbon source within the terrestrial carbon cycle of orogenic regions.

Multi-scale influences on Escherichia coli concentrations in shellfish: from catchment to estuary.

Sustainability of bivalve shellfish farming relies on clean coastal waters, however, high levels of faecal indicator organisms (FIOs, e.g. Escherichia coli) in shellfish results in temporary closure of shellfish harvesting beds to protect human health, but with economic consequences for the shellfish industry. Active Management Systems which can predict FIO contamination may help reduce shellfishery closures. This study evaluated predictors of E. coli concentrations in two shellfish species, the blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) and the Pacific oyster (Crassostrea gigas), at different spatial and temporal scales, within 12 estuaries in England and Wales. We aimed to: (i) identify consistent catchment-scale or within-estuary predictors of elevated E. coli levels in shellfish, (ii) evaluate whether high river flows associated with rainfall events were a significant predictor of shellfish E. coli concentrations, and the time lag between these events and E. coli accumulation, and (iii) whether operation of Combined Sewer Overflows (CSO) is associated with higher E. coli concentrations in shellfish. A cross-catchment analysis gave a good predictive model for contamination management (R2 = 0.514), with positive relationships between E. coli concentrations and river flow (p=0.001), turbidity (p=0.002) and nitrate (p=0.042). No effect was observed for catchment area, the number of point source discharges, or agricultural land use type. 64% of all shellfish beds showed a significant relationship between E. coli and river flow, with typical lag-times of 1-3 days. Detailed analysis of the Conwy estuary indicated that E. coli counts were consistently higher when the CSO had been active the previous week. In conclusion, we demonstrate that real-time river flow and water quality data may be used to predict potential risk of E. coli contamination in shellfish at the catchment level, however, further refinement (coupling to fine-scale hydrodynamic models) is needed to make accurate predictions for individual shellfish beds within estuaries.

In search of non-stationary dependence between estuarine river discharge and storm surge based on large-scale climate teleconnections

Compound floods may happen in low-lying estuarine environments when sea level above normal tide co-occurs with high river flow. Thus, comprehensive flood risk assessments for estuaries should not only account for the individual hazard arising from each environmental variable in isolation, but also for the case of bivariate hazard. Characterization of the dependence structure of the two flood drivers becomes then crucial, especially under climatic variability and/or change that may affect their relationship. In this article, we demonstrate our search for evidence of non-stationarity in the dependence between river discharge and storm surge along the East and Gulf coasts of the United States, driven by large-scale climate variability, particularly El-Niño Southern Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Leveraging prolonged overlapping observational records and copula theory, we recover parameters of both stationary and dynamic copulas using state-of-the-art Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Physics-informed copulas are developed by modeling the magnitude of dependence as a linear function of large-scale climate indices, i.e., Oceanic Niño Index or NAO index. After model comparison via suitable Bayesian metrics, we find no strong indication of such non-stationarity for most estuaries included in our analysis. However, when non-stationarity due to these climate modes cannot be neglected, this work highlights the importance of appropriately characterizing bivariate hazard under non-stationarity assumption. As an example, we find that during a strong El-Niño year, Galveston Bay, TX, is much more likely to experience a coincidence of abnormal sea level and elevated river stage.

Influence of river runoff and precipitation on the seasonal and interannual variability of sea surface salinity in the eastern North Tropical Atlantic

Abstract. In tropical regions, the freshwater flux entering the ocean originates primarily from precipitation and, to a lesser extent when considering basin-scale averages, from continental rivers. Nevertheless, at the regional scale, river flows can have a significant impact on the surface ocean dynamics. Riverine freshwater modifies salinity and, therefore, density, stratification, and circulation. With its particular coastline and high cumulative river discharge, as well as its being in the vicinity of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), the eastern part of the North Tropical Atlantic (e-NTA) region off northwestern Africa is a particularly interesting location to study the linkage between precipitation, river outflow, and sea surface salinity (SSS). Here, we focus on the regional e-NTA SSS seasonal cycle and interannual variability and on the impact of using various river runoff and precipitation forcing data sets to simulate SSS with a regional model. The simulated SSS values are compared with the Climate Change Initiative (CCI) satellite SSS values; in situ SSS values from Argo floats, ships, and a coastal mooring; and the GLORYS reanalysis SSS values. An analysis of the mixed-layer salinity budget is then conducted. Overall, the simulations reproduce the seasonal cycle and interannual variability well despite a positive mean model bias north of 15° N. The seasonal cycle is impacted by the phasing of the different runoff products. The mixed-layer SSS decrease during the rainy season is mainly driven by precipitation followed by runoff by means of horizontal advection and is partly compensated for by vertical mixing. In terms of interannual anomalies, river runoff has a more direct impact on SSS than precipitation. This study highlights the importance of properly constraining river runoff and precipitation to simulate realistic SSS values and the importance of observing SSS in coastal regions to validate such constraints.

Climate-driven peatlands development and vegetation dynamics in Northeastern China since the mid-Holocene: New evidence from Huanan peatlands

Studying peatland evolution and vegetation patterns in response to climate change provides valuable insights into future ecosystem trends. This study focuses on the Huanan peatland located in Changbai Mountain regions in Northeast China, utilizing phytolith analysis and stable carbon isotope composition (δ13C) to reconstruct late Holocene vegetation dynamics. Additionally, grain size, total organic carbon (TOC), and total nitrogen (TN) analyses were conducted to understand peatland development and paleoclimate since the late Holocene. The research identifies three distinct climate periods since 5500 cal yr BP: an initial warm, humid phase (5500–4000 cal yr BP) characterized by high river levels that formed lacustrine sediments; a subsequent transition to cold, dry conditions (4000–1500 cal yr BP) that initiated peat formation; and continued dry, cold conditions (1500 cal yr BP to the present) with sustained peat growth. Phytolith data reveal a dominant forest vegetation type since 2000 cal yr BP, further divided into three periods: 2000–1300 cal yr BP, marked by diverse and dense vegetation; 1300–750 cal yr BP, with declining plant cover; and 750 cal yr BP to the present, characterized by an increase in woody plants but a reduction in local grass cover.

Seasonal dynamics of chemistry in an Arctic glacier-fed river

Arctic rivers, intricately linked to fjord systems, wield significant influence over the geochemical and biological dynamics of the upper Arctic Ocean, providing it with freshwater, nutrients, suspended particles, and potentially harmful pollutants. To comprehend the full picture of the Arctic ecosystem, it is crucial to understand how these rivers vary across regions and seasons, especially considering ongoing climate changes. However, comprehensive studies that address long-term observations and seasonal variations in Arctic rivers' geochemical composition remain scarce. In this study, we present comprehensive long-term investigations of the seasonal variations in elemental concentrations in Bayelva, a high Arctic glacier-fed river. By analyzing 224 surface water samples, collected during different seasons between 2011 and 2020, we elucidate the diverse influences of marine, geological and atmospheric factors on the river chemistry. Our findings underscore the importance of marine-influenced snowmelt in the early flow season, which leads to elevated concentrations of marine and trace elements in the runoff water at the onset of melting, with concentrations subsequently decreasing as the snow melting continues. Glacial meltwater dominates the river chemistry during the peak flow season, during which elemental concentrations are at their lowest. Late flow season exhibits high elemental concentrations, primarily driven by weathering processes. Additionally, heavy rain and freezing events play a crucial role in sudden alterations in river chemistry. We highlight the dynamic response of Arctic river systems to such environmental drivers as key players in transporting essential micro- and macro-nutrients, as well as potentially harmful pollutants to adjacent fjord systems. Given their susceptibility to climate change, continuous monitoring is essential for understanding future changes. This study provides data for a better foundation for accurate climate modeling of biogeochemical systems in the Arctic environment.

Towards a new generation of fluvial facies models for the interpretation of ancient deposits, based on inter‐annual peak discharge variance of modern rivers

ABSTRACTFluvial facies models based on river planform are flawed and not fully fit for purpose. An alternative approach to classifying fluvial deposits is based on river discharge characteristics. A recent paper showed that the co‐efficient of variance of annual peak discharge (CVQp) correlates well with the characteristics of preserved alluvium for a suite of modern rivers. Here, the database of rivers is expanded and augmented, and the utility of this statistic confirmed. For modern rivers, plotting the running‐value of CVQp for a set interval (for example, 30 years) over a longer discharge record shows that the statistic varies both spatially and temporally. The CVQp can rise abruptly at a given location in response to a single flow event if that event is significantly larger than is common in that river. Such abrupt changes in CVQp are superimposed on longer‐term patterns of more gradual change stimulated by environmental factors or anthropogenic effects such as dam construction. If the period of calculation for CVQp is relatively short, ‘anomalous’ events appear more frequently. Sequential studies of modern rivers indicate that such anomalous events have a high probability of being preserved in the alluvial record of the river, and suggest that, over the timeframes of channel filling and abandonment, they may constitute the dominant (characteristic) portion of the record in high CVQp systems. Since flow events with strongly peaked hydrographs (flashy discharges) are more common in high CVQp systems and leave a record dominated by upper flow regime stratification styles, it follows that the alluvial record of high CVQp rivers will be dominated by upper flow regime stratification. In contrast, in lower CVQp systems the occurrence of an event that changes the running CVQp value significantly may form a distinct event deposit, and the temporarily changed CVQp is unrepresentative for the duration of the channel's life. The dominance of upper flow regime stratification, together with decreased preservation of identifiable macroform structure, increased lateral lithological heterogeneity, and in many cases increased preservation of in situ tree fossils in channel deposits of higher CVQp rivers, forms the basis for a series of new facies models for low, moderate, high and very high/ultra‐high CVQp alluvial systems and deposits. The new models can be applied to ancient successions either in combination with traditional, planform‐based models, or not. These models provide information about ancient palaeoenvironmental conditions, and changes in such conditions over time at various scales via stratigraphic investigations.

Investigating sediment dynamics on a continental shelf mud patch under the influence of a macrotidal estuary: A numerical modeling analysis

Shelf mud patches represent major sinks for fine-grained particles on continental shelves, as well as for carbon and contaminants of continental origin. The West Gironde Mud Patch (WGMP) is an interesting example of such offshore marine systems as it is an active mud deposition area located offshore the Gironde estuarine mouth (France) at depths between 30 and 70 m. It is known to be the trap of fine particles coming from the estuary, but the contribution of this material to the total mass of the depocenter is poorly quantified. In addition, despite the economic and ecological issues at stake, the response of such subtidal sedimentary structure to the combination of tidal currents, waves, and river supply remain poorly understood. Thus, using a realistic 3-D hydrodynamic and mixed (mud/sand) sediment transport model, this study aims at investigating the sediment dynamics of the WGMP under different hydrometeorological conditions. The analysis of the residual fluxes at the estuarine mouth exhibited large discrepancies between the different sediment classes as well as for contrasted hydro-and meteorological conditions induced by different dominant transport mechanisms. During winter, the reinforced density gradients drive strong up-estuary baroclinic circulation at the bottom that dominates the sediment dynamics over the barotropic export of mud particles. The model also reproduced the signature of a subtidal mud accumulation area over the continental shelf around 30–40 m water depth, on the proximal side of the observed WGMP. On average over two years, 26% of the mud mass accumulating on the simulated subtidal mudflat comes from the estuary. The trapping efficiency of this mud patch is negatively correlated with the significant wave height. Moreover, due to the estuarine turbid plume being more concentrated and developed at the surface during high river discharge, the trapping efficiency of the mud body is enhanced compared to lower discharge. This study highlights the sensitivity of mud and sand fluxes to vertical and horizontal residual circulation, and points out the uncertainties associated with the simulation of short-term (i.e., years) fine particle deposits compared to long-term (i.e., centuries) sediment accumulation trends. In addition, these results show the primordial effects of both wave action and riverine sediment supply on the dynamics of such subtidal muddy structures, which raises concern about their fate facing climate change and human activities in the future.

Influence of data source and copula statistics on estimates of compound flood extremes in a river mouth environment

Abstract. Coastal and riverine floods are major concerns worldwide as they can impact highly populated areas and result in significant economic losses. In a river mouth environment, interacting hydrological and oceanographical processes can enhance the severity of floods. The compound flood hazards from high sea levels and high river discharge are often estimated using copulas, among other methods. Here, we systematically investigate the influence of different data sources coming from observations and models as well as the choice of copula on extreme water level estimates. While we focus on the river mouth at the city of Halmstad (Sweden), the approach presented is easily transferable to other sites. Our results show that the choice of data sources can considerably impact the results up to 10 % and 15 % for the river time series and 3 % to 4.6 % for the sea level time series under the 5- and 30-year return periods, respectively. The choice of copula can also strongly influence the outcome of such analyses up to 13 % and 9.5 % for the 5-year and 30-year return periods. Each percentage refers to the normalized difference in return level results we can expect when choosing a certain copula or input dataset. The copulas found to statistically best fit our datasets are the Clayton, BB1, and Gaussian (once) ones. We also show that the compound occurrence of high sea levels and river runoff may lead to heightened flood risks as opposed to considering them independent processes and that, in the current study, this is dominated by the hydrological driver. Our findings contribute to framing existing studies, which typically only consider selected copulas and datasets, by demonstrating the importance of considering uncertainties.

Ecological quality of the Jucusbamaba River, a high Andean urban river in northeastern Peru

The Jucusbamaba River, located in the northeastern region of Peru, flows through two towns that use its waters for agricultural activities. However, these activities generate waste discharged back into the river, which is additionally polluted by untreated domestic wastewater discharges. The main objective was to evaluate the ecological quality of this lotic system, analyzing biotic and abiotic parameters during two seasons. The biotic parameters included microinvertebrates and fecal coliforms, while the abiotic parameters encompassed temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen, electrical conductivity, turbidity, total dissolved solids, and biochemical oxygen demand. Six sampling points were established where physicochemical and microbiological parameters were analyzed. Simultaneously, quantitative sampling of macroinvertebrates was carried out at the same points to evaluate their diversity using Shannon- Wiener, Margalef and Simpson indices. The Andean Biotic Index (ABI) and the Biotic Family Index (FBI) were calculated to determine the ecological quality of the river using macroinvertebrates. Finally, the spatio-temporal variation of macroinvertebrate composition and physicochemical and microbiological parameters were analyzed. Very high concentrations of BOD, total dissolved solids, and electrical conductivity were obtained in the dry season, while in the rainy season, they were pH, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity. 12548 individuals from 6 classes, 11 orders, and 26 families were collected. The greatest richness of macroinvertebrate families was found at points 1 and 2, with Trichoptera, Ephemeroptera and Plecoptera individuals predominating. There was evidence of temporal variation in physicochemical and microbiological parameters, as well as in macroinvertebrate composition. It was concluded that the ecological quality of the Jucusbamba River decreases as it follows its course due to anthropic disturbances. This research can be used to develop management plans, awareness-raising, and sanitation measures to ensure the protection and conservation of the Jucusbamaba River.

Long-term observations of the turbid outflow plume from the Russian River, California

Understanding the mechanisms that spread freshwater away from small river systems and form turbid, low-salinity coastal plumes is crucial for assessing water quality in coastal waters. We present an analysis of 15 years (January 2004 to December 2018) of daily MODIS Aqua satellite data and in situ instrument data on the turbid freshwater plume that forms off the Russian River (California, USA), a prototypical Mediterranean-climate, small mountainous river system (SMRS). We present per-pixel statistical metrics and regression analyses to identify and quantify the controls on the extent and configuration of the plume exerted by river discharge, waves, winds, and tides. While freshwater outflow exhibits a persistent signal in nearshore waters, a large-scale plume only extends offshore into coastal waters during high river flow, when plume turbidity can be detected more than 10 km offshore from the river mouth. Our results show times when wave radiation stress exceeds outflow inertia, confining the plume within the surf zone and leading to an absence of detectable plume turbidity in coastal waters. Although tidal currents significantly influence the plume near the inlet, wind forcing is the primary control on plume shape and extent in coastal waters, deflecting the turbid outflow more than 30 km upcoast or downcoast of the river mouth with respective wind directions. Coriolis forcing is also significant and observed most clearly during periods of high river discharge and low wind forcing. In addition to introducing novel remote sensing methodology for SMRS plume analyses, these findings highlight the complex interplay of forcing related to tides, river discharge, winds, and waves in shaping the behavior of SMRS plumes. New insights include the impact of tides on larger discharges, the role of Coriolis forcing in SMRS plumes, and the effect of cross-shore winds on plume compression. Further, by considering the Russian River as a model for SMRS, this study can be used to ground-truth existing numerical models of small river plumes and to contribute to understanding critical for managing coastal water quality and nearshore ecosystems.

Postbreeding ecology of wood ducks in the Illinois River Valley

AbstractThe wood duck (Aix sponsa) consistently ranks within the top 5 harvested duck species for both Illinois and the Mississippi Flyway. While substantial research has been done on wood ducks, especially their breeding ecology, few studies have investigated the postbreeding ecology of the species. We captured and marked wood ducks with either a very high frequency (VHF) radio transmitter or a solar‐charged global system of mobile communication (GSM) transmitter during the postbreeding period from August through September 2018–2020. Capture locations were within the La Grange Pool of the Illinois River extending from near Pekin, Illinois to the La Grange Lock and Dam near Meredosia, Illinois, USA. We used conventional radio‐telemetry techniques to track wood ducks to determine cover type use, home range size, daily movement patterns, survival, and migration chronology. Home range size (95% minimum convex polygon) for wood ducks averaged 6,820 ± 572 ha (SE) and we did not find evidence for a difference by age, sex, or transmitter type. Daily movement distance in August (2,031 ± 51 m) was similar to daily movement distance in September (1,922 ± 44 m), but daily movement distances for August and September were less than daily movement distance for October (3,509 ± 53 m) and November (3,347 ± 106 m). Wood ducks primarily used wetlands with woody (45.0%) and emergent vegetation (40.4%), and the most commonly used wetland types by wood ducks were impounded wetlands (53.8%), lakes (17.6%), and ponds (10.7%). Model‐derived survival during the postbreeding period was 0.79 (95% CI = 0.74–0.84). Daily survival was positively related to increased river level and had a mean increase of 4.06 ± 0.67% for every 0.3‐m increase in the Illinois River level at low river levels (1.5–3.0 m) and a mean increase of 1.38 ± 0.32% for every 0.3‐m increase in the Illinois River level at high river levels (4.0–5.5 m). Average departure date of wood ducks leaving the Illinois River Valley was 27 October (range =13 August–15 December), and adult male wood ducks left the study area 11–16 days earlier than the other age and sex cohorts (H2 = 11.6, P = 0.01). Providing additional waterfowl sanctuaries that contain wooded wetlands, especially in years of low river levels, may increase survival for wood ducks during the postbreeding period.

Drivers of microbial carbon biomass variability in two oceanic regions of the Gulf of Mexico

The microbial plankton community is an integral part of the pelagic ecosystem. It hosts essential functional groups that play a vital role in organic carbon production, release, uptake, and degradation within open-ocean ecosystems. Given its significance, carbon biomass estimates are urgently needed, especially in oligotrophic regions, to provide and enhance our knowledge of biogenic carbon pools. They also aid in validating biogeochemical models that characterize the functioning of these extensive marine ecosystems within the global carbon cycle. This study addresses the temporal variability of microbial community biomass in two oceanic zones: the west-central (Perdido) and southern (Coatzacoalcos) areas of the Gulf of Mexico. During three seasonally contrasting periods (nortes, rainy, and dry seasons), seawater samples were collected from the euphotic zone in both regions to estimate the carbon biomass of different pico- (<2–3 µm), nano-, and microplankton groups (>3–200 µm). Carbon biomass assessments for the microbial groups were based on their abundance and carbon conversion factors. Overall, we found a significant contribution of pico-prokaryotic components (heterotrophic bacteria, Prochloroccocus, and Synechoccocus) to the total microbial carbon stock of the euphotic zone (84–89 % global estimates). The finding suggests these microorganisms are key functional groups that drive carbon production and fate in the Gulf of Mexico ecosystem. Pico-cyanobacteria, especially Prochloroccocus, were the dominant primary producers (68–82 % total autotrophic carbon), mainly in the upper layer of the oligotrophic euphotic zone. This vertical pattern implies that the deep chlorophyll-a maximum (DCM) depth level was unrelated to a net increase in phytoplankton biomass in the three study periods. The distribution of microbial carbon biomass exhibited striking differences associated with winter mixing (the nortes season), high river discharge accompanied by cross-shelf transport (the rainy season), and the dynamics of mesoscale structures. Ecological aspects, such as the habitat preference of the organisms and the seasonal complementary development of mixotrophic and heterotrophic grazers and their prey, were also essential drivers in regulating the microbial carbon pool of both oceanic regions. The microbial carbon assessments conducted in this study contribute to identifying and quantifying key planktonic functional groups involved in the biogeochemical carbon cycle in the Gulf of Mexico open-ocean ecosystem.

Rainfall-runoff modeling using artificial neural networks in the Mono River basin (Benin, West Africa)

Hydrological models are developed to simulate river flows over a watershed for many practical applications in the field of water resource management. However, the rainfall-runoff models mostly used in the Mono river basin struggle to better simulate high river flows. This paper presents a modeling approach based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) under different input meteorological parameters in the Mono River basin to better take into account the non-linearity of the relationship between rainfall and runoff. To this end, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and previously observed flow have been used for the daily flow simulation. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to train the ANN rainfall-runoff models over the other optimization training algorithms mostly implemented in the study area. The analysis of the rainfall-runoff variability allowed us to show the strong correlation between rainfall and runoff and the impact of the Nangbéto dam on the flows at Athiémé. The results obtained after the training, validation, and testing of the ANN models are satisfactory (e.g., the coefficient of correlation varies between 0.93 and 0.99). The most efficient model has been identified and implemented in the Mono river basin at Nangbéto. The satisfactory results obtained show that ANN models can be considered good alternatives for traditional rainfall-runoff modeling approaches.

Rainfall-runoff modeling using artificial neural networks in the Mono River basin (Benin, West Africa)

Hydrological models are developed to simulate river flows over a watershed for many practical applications in the field of water resource management. However, the rainfall-runoff models mostly used in the Mono river basin struggle to better simulate high river flows. This paper presents a modeling approach based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) under different input meteorological parameters in the Mono River basin to better take into account the non-linearity of the relationship between rainfall and runoff. To this end, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and previously observed flow have been used for the daily flow simulation. The Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is used to train the ANN rainfall-runoff models over the other optimization training algorithms mostly implemented in the study area. The analysis of the rainfall-runoff variability allowed us to show the strong correlation between rainfall and runoff and the impact of the Nangbéto dam on the flows at Athiémé. The results obtained after the training, validation, and testing of the ANN models are satisfactory (e.g., the coefficient of correlation varies between 0.93 and 0.99). The most efficient model has been identified and implemented in the Mono river basin at Nangbéto. The satisfactory results obtained show that ANN models can be considered good alternatives for traditional rainfall-runoff modeling approaches.

Climate variability and hydrology impacts in east Africa’s Rwenzori Mountains

Study regionThe eastern flank of the 4 km Rwenzori Mountains and the Mobuku catchment 0.25–0.4 N, 29.85–30.1E are the geographic area for detailed analysis. Research focusHydro-climate variability is studied using high resolution satellite- and model- assimilated products in the period 1980–2023. The Mobuku catchment receives rainfall of 3–6 mm/day which generates an eastward discharge of 100 m3/s that declines rapidly downstream, thereby limiting hydro-power availability. New insightsLong-term trends in cloud fraction and potential evaporation reveal a tendency for drying associated with increasing easterly winds, subsidence near the mountain top, and warming of +.04 C/year that is melting glaciers. These constrain runoff on the eastern flank of the Rwenzori Mountains. Low river flows in Dec-Mar correspond with dry air intrusions from the northeast. High river flows in Jul-Nov are modulated by sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean that oscillate east-west at ∼3 year interval. Improved understanding of climate variability will contribute to better management of Uganda’s hydro-power resources.

Joint Occurrence of Extreme Water Level and River Flows in St. Lawrence River Coasts Under Present and Sea Level Rise Conditions

AbstractIn low‐lying coastal regions, the joint occurrence of high river flow and high water levels can cause coastal flooding with substantial economic and social implications. Recent studies over Canada's coasts have shown that neglecting the interdependency between flood drivers can underestimate the risk of flooding by up to 50%. However, to date, such interdependency has not been investigated for the coasts of the St. Lawrence River, Estuary and Gulf system (StL), where Sea Level Rise (SLR), along with intensified river peaks, are already threatening these communities. In this study, a copula‐based bivariate frequency analysis was applied to quantify the likelihood of occurrence of flooding events under dependent and independent assumptions, for 26 sites along the StL. Furthermore, to quantify the impact of anthropogenic climate change, the joint return period in historical period was compared with that of projected SLR associated with RCP 8.5 for the year 2100. Results show that (a) the independence assumption can underestimate the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event in the Fluvial Section of the StL by up to 30 times and (b) the SLR can increase the likelihood of occurrence of flooding event by up to 50 times in the Estuary and the Gulf and by up to 5 times in the Fluvial Section of the StL. This study highlights the need for explicit consideration of the dependence between flood drivers and of SLR in the delineation of flood maps along the coast of the St. Lawrence.

Vertical distribution of Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas larvae and modeling larval transport in Hiroshima Bay, Japan

Understanding vertical distribution of planktonic larvae is essential for elucidating larval dispersal and recruitment processes. We investigated the vertical distribution and horizontal transport of Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas larvae by field observations and numerical simulations during their main spawning season in Hiroshima Bay, Japan. In field observations, despite horizontal differences and slight diurnal/semi-diurnal changes depending on larval sizes, most larvae were distributed in the upper 3 m layer. The relationship between C. gigas larvae and environmental conditions revealed that larval density increased with increasing temperature and chlorophyll a concentration, and the density peaked at salinity of approximately 20 for all larval sizes. The observed results suggest that the distribution characteristics of C. gigas larvae are suitable for survival in an estuarine area, where environmental conditions are potentially favorable but hydrodynamic conditions can drastically change over the short term due to variations in river discharge. To examine the effect of high river discharge on larval transport, numerical simulations were conducted using a particle-tracking model incorporating the vertical motion of C. gigas larvae. The simulation results reproduced the spatio-temporal dynamics of planktonic and settled larvae after the high river discharge. Although most particles simulating larvae outflowed from the main spawning area, an area of high particle density at the end of simulation corresponded with the offshore area for seedling collection. The present study suggests the role of vertical distribution of C. gigas larvae for recruitment, and the prospect of sustainability in oyster aquaculture with respect to seedling collection despite the frequent heavy rainfall associated with climate change.