High-risk Offenders Research Articles

‘Walking on ice’: The future of parole in a risk-obsessed society

The aim of risk assessment and management in criminal justice is increasingly about minimizing opportunities to create harm to the public rather than maximizing opportunities to create change in offenders. This seems to be particularly the case in respect of parole, where the balance of public protection with rehabilitation has become increasingly unstable in prioritizing the former. This article examines parole decision making and management within the UK from the perspectives of both high risk offenders on licence and parole professionals. It discusses two key drivers to burgeoning recall rates: the stringency of licence conditions and the propensity of professionals to recall in the name of risk elimination rather than risk reduction. The article concludes that the effectiveness of parole is in question, not least in enabling re-entry and reintegration of high risk prisoners. In particular, the future sustainability of parole itself is deemed to be under threat.

Predicting risk in criminal procedure: actuarial tools, algorithms, AI and judicial decision-making

ABSTRACTRisk assessments are conducted at a number of decision points in criminal procedure including in bail, sentencing and parole as well as in determining extended supervision and continuing detention orders of high-risk offenders. Such risk assessments have traditionally been the function of the human discretion and intuition of judicial officers, based on clinical assessments, framed by legislation and common-law principles, and encapsulating the concept of individualised justice. Yet, the progressive technologisation of criminal procedure is witnessing the incursion of statistical, data-driven evaluations of risk. Human judicial evaluative functions are increasingly complemented by a range of actuarial, algorithmic, machine learning and Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools that purport to provide accurate predictive capabilities and objective, consistent risk assessments. But ethical concerns have been raised globally regarding algorithms as proprietary products with in-built statistical bias as well as the diminution of judicial human evaluation in favour of the machine. This article focuses on risk assessment and what happens when decision-making is delegated to a predictive tool. Specifically, this article scrutinises the inscrutable proprietary nature of such risk tools and how that may render the calculation of the risk score opaque and unknowable to both the offender and the court.

\u201cWho needs secure services for personality disorder?\u201d Results of an expert Delphi study with professional staff

BackgroundPersonality Disorder (PD) is an enduring, multi-faceted mental disorder, associated with adverse health effects, difficulties with interpersonal relationships and in some cases increased risk to others. A limited number of dedicated forensic mental health services are available for serious offenders with severe personality disorder. The recent Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) strategy aims to ensure that most such offenders are treated in prison rather than secure psychiatric services, except in highly complex cases where this is not possible. While the strategy sets out very broad criteria relating to this, greater clarity is needed to support decisions about appropriate transfer and hence enhance public protection. This study explored which characteristics professional experts associate with appropriate transfer from prison to forensic mental health services for high-risk offenders with PD.MethodA modified Delphi survey distributed through an online survey system was conducted in two-rounds with a group of professional experts recruited from forensic mental healthcare; criminal justice and specialist commissioning.ResultsFifty-one (56%) respondents completed stage one of the Delphi and 34 (61%) of these completed stage two. Consensus was reached for a total of 22 items indicating complexity, including co-morbid mental illness, high level of risk, lack of progress in prison and high motivation for treatment. A preliminary checklist for these factors was developed. Panel members consistently emphasised the importance of the individual’s presenting need, the overall clinical picture and formulation in their free text responses.ConclusionsProfessionals face a complex picture when making decisions regarding suitability for hospital admission for high-risk male offenders with PD, with varied opinions amongst professional experts as to priorities for intervention and a focus on individual needs through formulation. It was, nevertheless, possible to condense these views into a set of consistent variables that can be used to highlight the need for transfer into hospital-based treatment services.

Into the Wild, Out of the Woods: A Systematic Case Study on Facilitating Emotional Change.

Cognitive and behavioral treatment programs for individuals who have committed sexual offenses (ISOs) have shown significant but small effect sizes. A growing body of research points toward the importance of difficulties in affect regulation (AR) as a risk factor for sexual recidivism. On this basis, it seems important to target difficulties in AR in treatment. The current systematic case study investigates the potential contribution of emotion-focused therapy (EFT) to changing problematic AR in ISOs. Kevin was a high-risk offender with a traumatic history who met the diagnostic criteria of pedophilic and borderline disorders, with serious AR difficulties. Self-report outcome measures, observation measures, and a biomarker were used to track changes in AR, psychological symptoms, and distress during baseline (Phase A); treatment as usual (Phase B); treatment with an EFT component added (Phase C); and follow-up (Phase A). Statistically significant change was found in AR, psychological symptoms, and distress during treatment (Phase B + C); however, it is not possible to attribute these changes causally to EFT. An examination of the qualitative process data provides deeper insights into how the client reacted to specific EFT interventions. Verbatim clinical vignettes are included to clarify key interventions, hindrances, and mechanisms of change. This study provides preliminary support for the role of therapy to facilitate emotional change in ISOs.

How Does Offender Rehabilitation Actually Work? Exploring Mechanisms of Change in High-Risk Treated Parolees.

Offender rehabilitation is typically thought to have been successful if a higher proportion of a sample of treatment completers avoids being reconvicted for an offence than a comparison sample. Yet, this type of evaluation design tells us little about what brings about these outcomes. In this study, we test whether change in dynamic risk factors during treatment is a recidivism-reducing mechanism in a sample of high-risk offenders. We also examine the extent to which change after treatment-in the period of reentry from prison to the community-mediates this relationship. We found that although individuals made statistically significant change during treatment, this change was not significantly related to recidivism. We did, however, find tentative support for an indirect relationship between treatment change and recidivism, through change that occurred during reentry. These findings signal the importance of the reentry period for understanding how change in treatment is related to long-term outcomes.

The role of emotional resilience, childhood parentification, and attachment style on antisocial behaviour in adulthood: a comparison of an offender and normative population

PurposeDespite a robust link between poor caregiver attachment and antisociality, few studies have examined the influence of parentification and emotional resilience on delinquency in later life, in groups at differing risk for antisocial conduct. The paper aims to discuss these issues.Design/methodology/approachThis pilot study compared the influence of parentification, attachment style (avoidance or anxious) and emotional resilience on adulthood antisocial behaviour in an offender and normative sample. Of the 137 participants in this study, 66 were supervised by the National Probation Service (age M=36.90, SD=13.91), and 71 were recruited from community-dwelling and student populations (age M=31.83, SD=13.25).FindingsIn partial support of the predictions, participants in the offender group reported significantly greater levels of attachment anxiety compared to the normative group. However, emotional resilience was positively associated with antisociality in the normative sample.Research limitations/implicationsThis small-scale investigation indicates value in exploring these specific variables in a larger, matched samples study, to enable clearer comparisons to be made between offender and normative groups.Practical implicationsThe preliminary findings suggest that attachment anxiety is associated with antisociality in offender populations, which indicate a therapeutic focus on attachment anxiety as part of correctional care and offender rehabilitation.Originality/valueThis study is novel in its aim to examine the influence of childhood parentification, attachment deficits and emotional resilience on adulthood antisociality in participants from a high-risk offender sample and non-high-risk normative sample.

Determinants of Dropout From Correctional Offender Treatment

Research indicates that approximately one third of offenders admitted to social-therapeutic correctional facilities in Germany fail to complete treatment and that treatment dropout is linked to higher recidivism in both sexual and violent offenders. The purpose of this study was to examine determinants of treatment dropout in a social-therapeutic correctional facility in Germany. The sample consisted of 205 incarcerated adult male offenders (49.8% sexual, 38.1% non-sexual violent) admitted to correctional treatment. Completers and dropouts were compared on variables pertaining to demographics, offense type, substance abuse, psychopathy, risk, and protective factors. Univariate analyses showed that treatment dropouts demonstrated significantly higher scores on measures of risk and psychopathy and lower scores on protective factors. Logistic regression analyses identified unemployment, non-sexual violent index offense, higher risk scores (HCR-20), and Facet 1 (interpersonal deficits) of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) as significant predictors of treatment dropout. Surprisingly, substance abuse disorder was a negative predictor of dropout. With the exception of substance abuse, the results support the notion that treatment dropouts represent a group of high-risk offenders with particular treatment needs. Practical implications and suggestions for further research are discussed.

Psychopathy and intelligence in high-risk violent women

ABSTRACTThere has been a longstanding debate and mixed evidence on the link between psychopathy and intelligence. Most of the existing research comes from male prisoners, with the literature on female psychopathy and intelligence remaining sparse. Thus, the current study explored the correlational association between psychopathy and intelligence in a sample of high-risk violent female offenders. This is the first study of its kind from the Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) pathway for women in the United Kingdom (UK). The sample includes high-risk violent women presenting with severe personality disorder. In the present study, we conducted a correlational examination between total scores, and the 2-factor and 4-facet structure of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R) with intelligence using the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale (WAIS). No significant associations were found between total PCL-R scores, or factor 2, and intelligence. Positive associations were found between verbal comprehension and factor 1 and the interpersonal facet. Thus, the results suggest high-risk violent female offenders with interpersonal psychopathic traits demonstrate higher levels of verbal comprehension skills. This finding may help explain why psychopathic female offenders, who can be characterized by deceitful and egocentric behaviours, may be able to successfully charm and con others for their own personal gain.

Evaluative Outcomes of Connecticut’s Batterer Intervention for High Risk Offenders

ABSTRACT Evaluations of male batterer interventions (e.g., BIPs) have produced mixed results with many finding little or no positive effects and/or suffering from methodological shortcomings. This study attempted to overcome many of these shortcomings by employing a quasi-experimental research design with a propensity-matched comparison group to test the effectiveness of Connecticut’s batterers’ program for serious male family violence offenders. Using court records, we calculated one-year recidivism effect sizes for program participants and further explored these effects while controlling for demographics, family violence risk, and criminal history. We found that the program participation group had significantly lower one-year arrest rates than the comparison group. While the effect size for any type of arrest was moderate, it remained when controlling for other variables known to influence recidivism such as age, race/ethnicity, family violence risk, and criminal history. These differences, however, applied to any type of new arrest but not specifically to family violence offenses. For family violence offenses, the program group had lower arrest rates, but these were not statistically significant. Overall, our findings show that court-mandated batterer programs can be effective in reducing general recidivism but is inconclusive with battering violence.

Young adult sexual offenders with emerging personality disorders: developmental and offence-related characteristics and treatment engagement

ABSTRACTIn the context of the UK Government’s Offender Personality Disorder (OPD) Strategy, large numbers of high-risk young adult sexual offenders with emerging personality disorders are being screened for inclusion onto specialist intervention pathways (the OPD Pathway). However, little is currently known about the clinical and offence-related needs of this population or their impact on treatment engagement. The current study investigated the developmental, personality and offence-related characteristics of 87 incarcerated young adult sexual offenders, comparing those screened in to the pathway and those not screened in. Fifty per cent of the sample were potentially eligible for the OPD pathway. OPD eligible cases were found to have significantly higher rates of parental difficulties, developmental trauma, and childhood behavioural difficulties and to present with significantly higher rates of previous violent and sexual offences, previous allegations of sexual offences, and to have used physical coercion in their offences. The OPD sample was also significantly less likely to have pre-pubescent victims and more likely to refuse treatment, with over 70% failing to engage with the Sex Offender Treatment Programme (SOTP). SOTP non-engagement among OPD cases was most strongly predicted by categorical offence denial. Comparisons are made with the broader adolescent sexual offender literature.

Reducing Violence Risk? Some Positive Recidivism Outcomes for Canadian Treated High-Risk Offenders

In pursuit of “what works” in violent offending behavior programs, there remain insufficient evaluations of program outcomes. Three hundred forty-five offenders from the Canadian Violence Prevention Program (VPP) were compared after an average 3-year follow-up with 338 non-VPP participants. Outcomes measured were new convictions for violent, sexual, or general offenses. Intent-to-treat design was used. Subsequently, participants who completed or did not complete the program were compared with the non-VPP group. Further analyses considered Indigenous and non-Indigenous subgroups. Overall, lower recidivism rates were associated with VPP completion, both in the complete sample and ethnic subgroups. However, the main finding of significantly lower likelihood of violent recidivism was found only for the Indigenous offenders, while significantly lower likelihood of general (nonviolent) recidivism was specific to non-Indigenous offenders. Results are interpreted cautiously in relation to program effectiveness given the quasi-experimental design and the important implications of outcome studies for correctional services.

Typology of substance using offenders of IPV: violence and substance use outcomes

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate whether aggression and substance use assessed during treatment differ based on risk level for substance-using male offenders of intimate partner violence (IPV).Design/methodology/approachSecondary analyses were conducted using data from Easton et al.’s (2017) study on substance-dependent IPV offenders. A cluster analysis was utilized in order to classify participants into typology groups. Analyses of covariance were conducted in order to determine group differences in aggression and substance use during treatment.FindingsThe paper provides results-related response to treatment based on offender typology. Results appear to reflect two typology groups with significant differences in psychopathy among groups. High-risk offenders demonstrated higher rates of violence throughout treatment compared to moderate- and low-risk offenders; however, no differences in substance use outcomes were found.Research limitations/implicationsA limitation of the study is the extent to which the results can be generalized beyond substance using IPV offenders. Further investigation of treatment outcomes including alternate measures is needed in order to better translate theoretical typologies to clinical settings.Practical implicationsResults provide support for differentiating treatment for substance-using male offenders of IPV based on typology as those with low/moderate risk level appear to be distinctly different and have different treatment outcomes compared to high risk level offenders.Originality/valueAlthough the relationship between risk level and treatment outcomes has been researched with Drug Court Offenders, treatment outcomes based on typology has not been evaluated among substance using male offenders of IPV.

Cooperation and education in prison: A policy against the tide in the Latin American penitentiary crisis

Prison education is a fundamental human right and contributes to democratisation processes in Latin American countries. However, due to the current penitentiary crisis in Latin America (overcrowding, violence, drug dealing etc.), promoting education in prison is a difficult task. Conditions are further exacerbated by structural causes such as failures of the legal system in terms of viewing punishment as an ideology and the presence of institutional contradictions. Evoking Stephen Duguid’s assertion of the particular effectiveness of education programmes for high-risk offenders, the author of this article questions existing simplistic views which link education to recidivism in the Latin American context. A few years ago, the author was involved in conducting a survey in the context of EUROsociAL II, a programme set up by the European Commission aiming to consolidate cooperation between Latin America and the European Union on policy dialogue related to social cohesion. The purpose of the research was to understand and compare current prison education policies and to evaluate their effectiveness. This article complements the findings of that survey with insights gathered through a series of workshops and collective studies carried out with penitentiary authorities in Latin America. Despite a number of deep-rooted problems troubling this world region, the author is able to identify vibrant and encouraging practices of prison education. In order to reinforce these practices, he makes a case for calibrating education policies with prison-specific strategies, underlining the need for cooperation among different actors and institutions in prison education and hence for a reform of legal systems in the region.

A Randomized Control Trial of a Targeted High-Risk Offender Program Across Three Jurisdictions

This study reviews findings from Project Regional Analytics for the Safety of Our Residents, a modified focused deterrence program operated across three jurisdictions in Massachusetts. Unlike most other evaluations of targeted high-risk offender programs, the impact on individual-level offending is examined. Data from records management systems in three police agencies were extracted and used to create social harm risk scores. The top 150 offenders were selected for inclusion in this study. Subjects were blocked into three groups according to their composite score and then randomly assigned into treatment and control groups. All treatment group offenders were invited to a notification meeting where they decided whether to participate in the program with a police and social worker case management team. The outcome examined in this study is time to a new arraignment. Nonparametric and semiparametric methods detected no significant difference between groups after approximately one year. Implications for future research and practice are then discussed.

Prioritising the investigation of organised crime

ABSTRACTOrganised crime is becoming increasingly sophisticated and pervasive. Responding effectively to the dynamic and multifaceted nature of organised criminal activity is challenging. Law enforcement agencies need to find new and innovative ways to meet the demands of an ever-increasing and complex workload. Targeting resources is essential if the associated cost of organised crime is to be contained. This paper outlines a novel approach for ranking offenders specifically within the field of organised crime, in terms of investigative priority. Thirteen key people involved in the investigation of organised crime in New Zealand were brought together for a one-day workshop. Prior to attending the workshop participants were asked to rank 12 hypothetical offender profiles in terms of investigative priority. The rankings were used to stimulate discussion on the major issues relating to organised crime. As a result, six criteria were identified, and a discrete choice experiment was completed by consensus to determine the relative importance of the criteria. Community harm was considered the most important criterion (0.26), followed by corruption or infiltration (0.17), geographical influence (0.16), convertible assets (0.15), capability (0.14) and criminal influence (0.12). Fifty front-line investigators subsequently completed the experiment online, and the relative weights were found to be similar to those from the workshop. To assess the practicability of the weights, 10 known high-risk offenders were categorised and ranked using the weighted criteria from the workshop. Senior staff involved in the investigation of these offenders agreed that the resulting ranking of offenders aligned with their personal judgement.

Social Impact Bonds: A Tax-Favored Investment?

Salt Lake County, Utah, like many other counties throughout the nation, has struggled with finding a meaningful and effective way to address persistent homelessness and high rates of recidivism within the county. Current government funding for programs to address these issues is limited and their effectiveness is often unknown. The result is costly: 43% of persistently homeless individuals in Salt Lake County become chronically homeless within two years; 74% of high-risk offenders return to county jail within four years of their release; and the Salt Lake County jail is currently operating at full capacity. These issues also result in numerous other social and financial costs to society. In an attempt to address these issues, in December 2016, Salt Lake County launched a million dollar initiative to provide more than 500 of the county’s most vulnerable and at-risk population with innovative, evidence-based, preventative services never before available to these residents. Unlike other social programs, the government (and taxpayers) will not have to pay anything initially. Instead, investors will provide the upfront capital to finance the program and assume the risk of an unsuccessful program. If the program is successful in achieving pre-determined results, only then will the government repay the investors their initial capital, as well as a small return on their investment. The structure of the Salt Lake County program is just one example of a new type of financing mechanism that has recently emerged: social impact bonds (“SIBs”). Although still in their infancy, SIBs have generated a lot of excitement. They have received support from the Obama administration, major financial institutions, policy experts, philanthropic organizations, and universities. As a result, numerous SIBs have already been launched in communities across the country and world to address issues ranging from unemployment and child welfare to education and mental illness. Despite this initial excitement, SIBs have not yet generated sufficient private capital to truly make an impact in the United States. This Article is the first to argue that U.S. tax law is one factor that significantly contributes to the lack of private SIB investments in the United States. To demonstrate the chilling effect that the tax law has on these potentially powerful investments, I first describe the concept of a SIB, its benefits and limitations, and the likely tax implications to private SIB investors. Against this backdrop, I then consider from a normative perspective whether Congress should modify federal income tax laws to make SIBs a more tax-favored investment for private investors. My conclusion is that a tax policy change is needed.

Kaizen: working responsively with psychopathic traits

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to describe how Kaizen, an accredited offending behaviour programme designed for high risk and need offenders within Her Majesty’s Prison and Probation Service (HMPPS), lends itself to responsive delivery with those meeting the criteria for psychopathy.Design/methodology/approachThe paper describes how the theoretical rationale and model of change underpinning Kaizen can be applied to those with high levels of psychopathic traits given the available literature in this area.FindingsIt is argued that Kaizen is applicable to those meeting the criteria for psychopathy.Research limitations/implicationsAs a contemporary intervention, the efficacy of Kaizen in its ability to support participants in their journey towards desistance and therefore to contribute to the service wide aim of reducing reoffending is yet to be evaluated. In turn, its applicability to those meeting the criteria for psychopathy is yet to be explored.Practical implicationsThis paper lends support to the applicability of Mann and Carter’s (2012) six organising principles of programme design in the treatment of high risk, high need offenders who meet the criteria for psychopathy. It encourages practitioners to consider Kaizen as a possible intervention option for this population and offers guidance as to how the programme might be used to best effect. The paper also highlights the importance of evaluating the efficacy of participation in Kaizen for this population.Originality/valueIn time, Kaizen will replace Chromis as the offer by Intervention Services (HMPPS) for high risk offenders with a high level or combination of psychopathic trait. This paper describes this forthcoming change in approach and the rationale underpinning it.

A Preliminary Evaluation of the Supervision With Immediate Enforcement Probation Program for Adult Gang–Affiliated Offenders in Texas

As of 2012, it was estimated that there were more than 30,000 active gangs in the United States with at least 850,000 members. Despite significant challenges that criminal justice agencies and personnel face in treating and supervising gang members, few studies have examined adult gang member outcomes and the effects of community supervision on gang-affiliated offenders. Recent research demonstrates mixed evidence that high-risk offenders have better outcomes in smaller problem-solving courts and programs, which have dual emphasis on rehabilitation and deterrence-based approaches to corrections. This study evaluates the efficacy of the Supervision with Immediate Enforcement (SWIFT) Court Program for young adult gang–affiliated probationers compared with non-SWIFT gang members and high-risk non-gang offenders. Findings indicated SWIFT had a moderate deterrent impact on offending compared with alternative probation sanctions. Results and discussion related to problem-solving courts and policy-related issues surrounding gang-affiliated and youthful violent offenders are offered.

고위험 성범죄자의 MMPI-2 반응에 대한 판별분석 : 연쇄 대 비연쇄

고위험 성범죄자의 MMPI-2 반응에 대한 판별분석 : 연쇄 대 비연쇄

Ecological Context, Criminal Propensity, and Recidivism

This study examines whether the relationship between individual-level risk and recidivism varies according to ecological context, measured at the census tract level. It is hypothesized that high-risk offenders—as measured by Minnesota Screening Tool Assessing Recidivism Risk (MnSTARR) 2.0 and Level of Service Inventory–Revised (LSI-R)—will have elevated risk of recidivism when living in disadvantaged neighborhoods and lower risk of recidivism when living in affluent neighborhoods. These hypotheses are tested with hierarchical logistic models predicting rearrest and revocation for a technical violation among a sample of approximately 3,000 offenders released from Minnesota state prisons in 2009. Rearrest was positively related to neighborhood disadvantage and negatively related to neighborhood affluence, while revocation was positively related to neighborhood urbanism. Further, neighborhood disadvantage moderated the association between LSI-R and rearrest; however, this interaction was not in the hypothesized direction. The results contradict prior literature examining similar relationships at the county level.