High-quality Administrative Data Research Articles

Identifying transaction laundering red flags and strategies for risk mitigation

Purpose Transaction laundering has become an increasingly intricate and rampant form of financial misconduct in the age of digital commerce. This research paper conducts an exhaustive examination of this issue, categorizing the various techniques criminals use to highlight areas where existing risk management practices could be further refined. Amid escalating regulatory scrutiny of both financial and nonfinancial entities, the paper stresses the implications of not meeting regulatory standards. As a novel contribution, this study advocates for a shift in risk management strategies. It argues that entities under obligation should harness advanced technological methods to counter transaction laundering challenges effectively. The study serves as a relevant guide for online businesses aiming to strengthen their measures against transaction laundering. For future work, the potential effectiveness of technology-driven countermeasures deserves further scrutiny. Design/methodology/approach This study used a conceptual legal research method, using a library-based doctrinal legal research approach with a conceptual legal perspective, drawing from existing literature. This study reviewed primary and secondary legal sources, including case law and provisions of the Money Laundering (Prohibition) (Amended) Act, 2012, and the Terrorism (Prevention) Act 2013 (as amended). This study also assessed the provisions of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (Establishment) Act, Laws of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, 2004. This research further incorporated a blend of archival and secondary legal sources. This study conducted comparative analyses, examining the legal frameworks of Canada, the UK, Hong Kong and China alongside Nigeria to identify potential lessons for enhancing Nigeria’s legislation concerning money laundering and terrorism financing. This study also assessed problems and derived insights from the study’s findings. This research method was chosen to establish the credibility of the findings regarding the issues of money laundering and terrorist financing. Findings The analysis uses a comprehensive network dataset, encompassing ties among individuals and businesses in the Netherlands from 2005 to 2019. It integrates administrative data, including family ties, shared bank accounts and employment history, with corporate information and ownership relations from the Chamber of Commerce. Criminal data related to police interventions, legal convictions and suspicious money laundering transactions are linked to these networks. This unique approach overcomes the scarcity of large empirical datasets in criminological research, offering valuable insights into criminal network behavior and dynamics. Understanding how criminal networks adapt to anti-money laundering policies aids regulatory authorities in designing more effective and efficient measures while also enhancing the tools available to enforcement authorities for detection and investigation. Originality/value AML policies are often criticized for their high costs relative to the perceived benefits. This paper's method avoids dark number estimations and relies on high-quality administrative data. The theoretical contribution includes an examination of specialization, competition and collaboration within criminal networks. The empirical aspect uses a unique dataset and emerges as a methodology for evaluating the effects of AML policy measures using temporal cluster analysis.

What leads to measurement errors? Evidence from reports of program participation in three surveys

Measurement errors are often a large source of bias in survey data. Lack of knowledge of the determinants of such errors makes it difficult to reduce the extent of errors when collecting data and to assess the validity of analyses using the data. We study the determinants of reporting error using high quality administrative data on government transfers linked to three major U.S. surveys. Our results support several theories of misreporting: Errors are related to event recall, forward and backward telescoping, salience of receipt, the stigma of reporting participation in welfare programs and respondent's degree of cooperation with the survey overall. We provide evidence on how survey design choices affect reporting errors. Our findings help survey users to gauge the reliability of their data and to devise estimation strategies that can correct for systematic errors, such as instrumental variable approaches. Understanding survey errors allows researchers collecting survey data to reduce them by improving survey design. Our results indicate that survey design should take into account that higher response rates as well as collecting more detailed information may have negative effects on survey accuracy.

How sensitive are matching estimates of active labor market policy effects to typically unobserved confounders?

Using a rich and unique combined administrative-survey dataset, this paper explores how sensitive propensity score (PS) matching estimates of Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs) based on the selection-on-observables assumption are to typically unobserved covariates. Using a sample of German unemployed welfare recipients, the analysis shows that typically unobserved factors such job search behavior, concessions willing to make for a job as well as (mental) health are in fact relevant confounders. However, results also show that matching on the PS using only typically observed covariates reduces imbalance in terms of typically unobserved covariates by about 46 percent in this setting. In line with this finding, the inclusion of typically unobserved covariates yields very similar estimates to estimates based on a standard specification. Hence, a standard matching approach based on rich and high quality administrative data appears to be sufficient to obtain estimates that are rather robust to unobserved confounding.

The Health Effects of Downsizing Survival

Abstract We show that downsizing has substantial negative effects on the health of workers who remain in the firm. We study mass layoff (ML) survivors in Austria, using workers who survive a ML themselves, but a few years in the future, as a control group. Based on high-quality administrative data, we find evidence that downsizing has persistent effects on mental and physical health, and that these effects can be explained by workers fearing for their own jobs. We also show that health effects due to downsizing imply non-negligible costs for firms.

Nudges and threats: soft versus hard incentives for tax compliance

Abstract We study what induces delinquent wage earners to pay their taxes due, using high-quality administrative data from the Swedish Tax Agency. We find a strong effect of the standard enforcement regime: a threat of having the debt handed over to the Enforcement Agency increases payments by more than 9 percentage points (from a baseline of 58%). When including actual enforcement, payment increases by 19 percentage points compared with those who do not risk enforcement. In a field experiment, we compare these effects of standard enforcement to those involving much milder nudges, consisting of letters reminding tax delinquents to pay their taxes due. We find that a ‘pure nudge’ (i.e., the inclusion of an extra sheet of paper with no valuable information) has an effect of around 7 percentage points for those who do not risk enforcement upon non-payment, that is, an effect almost as large as for the threat of enforcement. However, the same nudge has no detectable effect on the group that is subject to enforcement. Finally, we find a small additional effect on payments from social norm messages both for those who risk enforcement and for those who do not.

Paying Adolescents for Health Screenings Works

With regard to their future health, adolescents are at a critical stage. Previous evaluations have shown that health screenings, counseling and other intervention programs during this phase of life are important, in particular for those with a low socio economic background. Unfortunately, adolescents tend to have little interest in preventive programs. We have designed a field-experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of financial incentives to promote the participation in health screenings. Our study comprises more than 10;000 participants, who we observe in high quality administrative data from Austria. The treatment group received a e40 shopping voucher if they participated in an age-specific health screening. On average the financial incentive increased the likelihood of participation by 280 %. Treatment effects are comparably larger for children in families with a higher socio-economic status, and of parents with a revealed preference for secondary health prevention.

Parenting values and the intergenerational transmission of time preferences

We study how parents transmit patience to their children with a focus on two theoretically important channels of socialization: parenting values and parental involvement. Using high-quality administrative and survey data, and a setting without reverse causality concerns, we document a substantial intergenerational transmission of patience. We show that parenting values represent a key channel of the transmission. Authoritative parents (high in control and warmth) do not transmit patience to their children, in contrast to authoritarian and permissive parents. Thus, the authoritative parenting style seems to counteract the transmission of impatience. While parental involvement does not appear to be a relevant channel at the aggregate level, we document important heterogeneity by parent gender.

Who Lacks Pension Knowledge, Why and Does it Matter? Evidence From Swedish Retirement Savers

Recent pension reforms have shifted a larger responsibility towards savers. Individuals therefore need better knowledge of the rules and incentives embedded in the pension system to adequately save and prepare for retirement. In this paper, we use a novel Swedish survey matched with high-quality administrative data to show that many lack, and feel that they lack, such pension-specific knowledge. We also show that the most economically vulnerable groups know the least. Linking pension knowledge to behavior, we find that knowing less is associated with lower preparedness for retirement, even after controlling for financial literacy and subjective knowledge. Moreover, a large majority state the complexity of the pension system, or that they have planned to learn more about pensions but that it just hasn’t happened, as reasons for why they do not have sufficient knowledge.

Cash transfers before pregnancy and infant health

We estimate the impact of a cash transfer targeting new mothers on their subsequent children's health outcomes at birth. We exploit the unexpected introduction of a generous, universal child benefit in Spain in 2007. Using population-wide, individual-level, high-quality administrative data from birth records and a regression discontinuity approach, we find that women who received the benefit were much less likely to have low-birth-weight children in the future (while their subsequent fertility was unaffected). The overall effect is driven by poor women, unmarried women, and women with low education, and by births taking place relatively soon after the benefit receipt. The €2500 transfer led to a 0.7 percentage-point decline in the fraction of children born under 1500 g in poorer households in the following five years, an 83% reduction. We explore the underlying channels, and find evidence supporting faster intrauterine growth, possibly driven by better maternal health, nutrition, and behaviors. Gestation length, family structure, and parental employment do not seem to play a role. Recent research suggests that targeting pregnant women may be more effective than later interventions (such as cash transfers to families with children), given the strong persistence of fetal health effects. Our results suggest that the impact may be stronger if women are targeted even earlier, before conception.

The effectiveness of a second-chance education scheme as an unemployment activation measure: evidence from Ireland

ABSTRACT Using a matching framework and high-quality administrative longitudinal and survey data, we evaluate the effectiveness of a second-chance education opportunity scheme, the Back to Education Allowance (BTEA), in assisting jobseekers to find employment on completion of their course. The results from two separate datasets indicate that BTEA scheme participation had large negative consequences for subsequent employment transitions. Further analysis revealed the negative impacts are likely to be related to flaws in the BTEA scheme framework rather than deficits in the quality of the education received. These results hold when tested against the influences of sample selection and unobserved heterogeneity bias.

Give it Another Try: What are the Effects of a Job Creation Scheme Especially Designed for Hard-to-Place Workers?

Previous evaluations of job creation schemes (JCS) reveal mostly negative employment effects, mainly due to inherent lock-in effects. In this paper, we assess the impact of an innovative JCS that employs a pre-selection mechanism to target programme participation on unemployed job seekers with very low integration chances, hereby reducing possible lock-in effects. Relying on high-quality administrative as well as survey data, we conduct regression-adjusted matching analyses to estimate the programme effect on integration into regular employment. Our results show that the programme did not succeed to foster labour market integration, but still entails remarkably negative employment effects in the first years after participation. We argue that this results from a principal-agent problem at the last step of the selection mechanism that may have led to cream-skimming rather than targeting on very hard to place workers. However, supplementary analyses reveal that negative effects can be avoided for subgroups with very poor employment chances in case of non-participation. These results are robust to the use of different matching estimators and definitions of non-participation. The inclusion of usually unobservable survey variables as well as placebo tests based on past employment outcomes refute concerns about endogenous selection. From a policy-perspective, these findings imply that targeting JCS on workers with very low integration chances is a key factor to avoid negative employment effects found in previous evaluations. At the methodological level, our analyses add to recent literature that assesses the credibility of non-experimental evaluations based on high-quality administrative data.

Intergenerational health mobility: Evidence from Danish registers.

This paper is one of the first to investigate mobility in overall health using high-quality administrative data. The attractiveness of this approach lies in objective health measures and large sample sizes allowing twin analyses. I operationalize health mobility by a variety of statistics: rank-rank slopes, intergenerational correlations (IGCs) and sibling and identical twin correlations. I find rank-rank slopes and IGCs in the range 0.11-0.15 and sibling correlations in the range 0.14-0.20. Mobility in health is thus relatively high, both when compared to similar US-based studies, and when contrasted with outcomes such as educational attainment and income. Comparing sibling and identical twin correlations with parent-child associations confirms earlier findings in the literature on equality of opportunity, namely that sibling correlations capture far more variation than traditional IGCs. I conclude that 14%-38% of the variation in individual health outcomes can be attributed to family background and genes, factors which the individual cannot be held accountable for. This finding suggests that simple parent-child associations may be a poor metric for measuring health mobility.

Immigration and economic mobility

We examine how immigration affects natives’ relative prime-age labor market outcomes by economic class background, with class background established on the basis of parents’ earnings rank. Exploiting alternative sources of variation in immigration patterns across time and space, we find that immigration from low-income countries reduces intergenerational mobility and thus steepens the social gradient in natives’ labor market outcomes, whereas immigration from high-income countries levels it. These findings are robust with respect to a wide range of identifying assumptions. The analysis is based on high-quality population-wide administrative data from Norway, which is one of the rich-world countries with the most rapid rise in the immigrant population share over the past two decades. Our findings suggest that immigration can explain a considerable part of the observed relative decline in economic performance among natives with a lower-class background.

Does class size matter? How, and at what cost?

Using Greek high quality administrative data we show that class size has a hump shaped effect on achievement whereas most of the literature assumes linearity. We then embed our estimates for this relationship in a dynamic structural model with costs of hiring and firing. We find that class sizes around 19 maximize the attainment, and the existing costs result in an average class size of 22–23 being chosen. Firing costs are about the same size as hiring costs consistent with the presence of unions. Reducing firing costs to zero raises class size by 4–6 students and reduces achievement by 0.8 to 1.2 GPA points. Reducing hiring costs to zero reduces class size by 3–5 students and increases GPA by 0.3 GPA points. Raising wages by 50%, class size increases by 2 students and GPA falls by 0.3 GPA points suggesting that unions (which raise salaries and firing costs) do raise class size, but have a small effect on achievement. We show that class size caps are costly, and more so for small schools, even when they are set at levels well above the average class size.

Dragon year superstition, birth timing, and neonatal health outcomes

According to Chinese astrology, each lunar year is symbolized by a zodiac animal, including the Dragon, which represents auspiciousness, power and greatness. Based on high-quality administrative data from birth certificates in Shenzhen, China, we first show that a considerable number of births are shifted from one week before the Dragon year to one week after the Dragon year begins, mainly through vaginal and elective C-sections. Then, we estimate the causal health effects of delaying births but do not find any significant results, as measured by birth weight, Apgar scores, and neonatal mortality.

Learner flows through schools: Using high quality administrative data to understand education system performance

Learner flows through schools: Using high quality administrative data to understand education system performance

Women in economics: a UK perspective

Abstract The status of women in economics in the US has come increasingly under the spotlight. We exploit high-quality administrative data to paint the first comprehensive picture of the status of women in UK academic economics departments in research-intensive universities. Our evidence indicates that, as in the US, women in economics are under-represented and are paid less than men. The issues facing women in economics in the UK are similar to other disciplines, particularly STEM, but have received less national policy attention to date. We conclude with a discussion of interventions that might improve the status of women in academia and we present new evidence that a UK academic diversity programme (Athena SWAN) has narrowed the gender pay gap at a senior level.

Are low-skilled young people increasingly useless, and are men the losers among them?

ABSTRACT Claims that low-skilled young people, and especially the men among them, are being excluded from the labour market have been influential over recent decades, contributing to an increasing concern over the issue of early school leaving. In this study, we use high-quality administrative data and sequence analysis to investigate the school-to-work trajectories of three birth cohorts of early school leavers in Norway between the ages of 16 and 26. Our observation period (from 1994 to 2015) covers several structural transformations of the Norwegian economy, such as increased migration, labour market polarisation and automatisation, widely held to have worsened the prospects of low-skilled young people. In accordance with expectations, we find some signs of increased labour market exclusion among early school leavers, relating to changes in welfare policy. However, the majority still follow trajectories characterised by employment and/or further education. Contrary to discourses on low-skilled men as losers, but in accordance with previous research, we find that male early school leavers consistently predominate in trajectories leading to middle and high incomes. Even in the comparatively gender equal country of Norway, the gender-segregated labour market consistently appears to be providing low-skilled men with more economically rewarding life course trajectories.

Differences in income trajectories according to psychological distress and pain: A longitudinal study among Norwegian social assistance recipients.

Aim: Mental diseases and pain are serious public health problems and are a leading cause of disability worldwide. The aim of this study is to describe how pain and psychological distress separately and in combination are associated with four income trajectories over nine years in a cohort of long-term social assistance recipients (LTRs). Methods: A cohort of 456 LTRs from 14 municipalities in Norway were divided into four groups based on the presence or absence of pain and/or psychological distress. These were surveyed in 2005, and later linked by personal identification numbers to high-quality longitudinal administrative data covering the period 2005-2013. Methods include calculation of income statuses based on main sources of income, and multinomial logistic regression analysis. Results: In the group without pain and psychological distress, earnings from work as main source of income (14.6-38.0%) and disability benefits (2.9-16.1%) increased over the period. In the 'double burden' group the proportions who had social assistance as main income decreased (68.2-21.5%) and the proportions with disability benefits increased over time (5.6-36.6%). Only 27.2% of the total sample had earnings from work as their main income in 2013. Conclusion: LTRs are extra burdened by pain and psychological distress, and this has consequences for their life opportunities and income trajectories. This study indicates that the primary goal of the social assistance system, to make the clients self-sufficient, is hard to achieve. A better co-operation between health services and work-related services is needed.

Cutting fertility? Effects of cesarean deliveries on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply

Despite the growing incidence of cesarean deliveries (CDs), procedure costs and benefits continue to be controversially discussed. In this study, we identify the effects of CDs on subsequent fertility and maternal labor supply by exploiting the fact that obstetricians are less likely to undertake CDs on weekends and public holidays and have a greater incentive to perform them on Fridays and days preceding public holidays. To do so, we adopt high-quality administrative data from Austria. Women giving birth on different days of the week are pre-treatment observationally identical. Our instrumental variable estimates show that a non-planned CD at parity 0 decreases lifecycle fertility by almost 13.6%. This reduction in fertility translates into a temporary increase in maternal employment.