High Probability Research Articles

Epidemiological profile of congenital syphilis in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil

Introduction: When syphilis is not treated during pregnancy, it results in a considerable proportion of early fetal and neonatal deaths, with a high probability of vertical transmission, and when this occurs, Congenital Syphilis (CS) develops. Aim: To evaluate the epidemiological profile of SC in the state of Mato Grosso do Sul, from 2012 to 2021. Design: A cross sectional, descriptive, retrospective, qualitative and quantitative study was carried out, limited to the years 2012 to 2021, with secondary data and the variables: child's age, final diagnosis, mother's age range, race, or color, having undergone prenatal care, time of diagnosis of maternal syphilis, maternal treatment regimen and deaths due to CS in children under one year of age. Results: 2,932 cases of CS were reported during the period. In the state, 88.1% of cases were in children less than 7 days old. 71.4% of mothers reported receiving prenatal care. Given the information about the mother's therapeutic regimen, 39.1% were inadequate, 28.8% did not receive treatment and in only 3.2% the treatment was adequate. Implications: The CS incidence rate in the State remained above the established national parameter, which is why it is necessary to invest more in epidemiological surveillance, as this is the first step to controlling the disease.

On the Success Probability of Quantum Order Finding

We prove a lower bound on the probability of Shor’s order-finding algorithm successfully recovering the order r in a single run. The bound implies that by performing two limited searches in the classical post-processing part of the algorithm, a high success probability can be guaranteed, for any r , without re-running the quantum part or increasing the exponent length compared to Shor. Asymptotically, in the limit as r tends to infinity, the probability of successfully recovering r in a single run tends to one. Already for moderate r , a high success probability exceeding e.g. 1 - 10 -4 can be guaranteed. As corollaries, we prove analogous results for the probability of completely factoring any integer N in a single run of the order-finding algorithm.

Empirical meropenem versus piperacillin/tazobactam for adult patients with sepsis (EMPRESS) trial: Protocol.

Piperacillin/tazobactam may be associated with less favourable outcomes than carbapenems in patients with severe bacterial infections, but the certainty of evidence is low. The Empirical Meropenem versus Piperacillin/Tazobactam for Adult Patients with Sepsis (EMPRESS) trial is an investigator-initiated, international, parallel-group, randomised, open-label, adaptive clinical trial with an integrated feasibility phase. We will randomise adult, critically ill patients with sepsis to empirical treatment with meropenem or piperacillin/tazobactam for up to 30 days. The primary outcome is 30-day all-cause mortality. The secondary outcomes are serious adverse reactions within 30 days; isolation precautions due to resistant bacteria within 30 days; days alive without life support and days alive and out of hospital within 30 and 90 days; 90- and 180-day all-cause mortality and 180-day health-related quality of life. EMPRESS will use Bayesian statistical models with weak to somewhat sceptical neutral priors. Adaptive analyses will be conducted after follow-up of the primary outcome for the first 400 participants concludes and after every 300 subsequent participants, with adaptive stopping for superiority/inferiority and practical equivalence (absolute risk difference <2.5%-points) and response-adaptive randomisation. The expected sample sizes in scenarios with no, small or large differences are 5189, 5859 and 2570 participants, with maximum 14,000 participants and ≥99% probability of conclusiveness across all scenarios. EMPRESS will compare the effects of empirical meropenem against piperacillin/tazobactam in adult, critically ill patients with sepsis. Due to the pragmatic, adaptive design with high probability of conclusiveness, the trial results are expected to directly inform clinical practice.

An essay on semiclassical analysis for microlocal singularities, turbulence intensity and integration of singularities by Schrödinger equation in probabilistic behavior

The Schrödinger equation governs the probabilistic behavior of quantum particles through the wave function. Microlocal singularities denote regions with significantly high probability density or abrupt changes therein. By visualizing the probability distribution in time and space, we discern regions with higher probability density, indicative of potential microlocal singularities. These regions probably correspond to areas with a greater probability of particle presence. Such analysis aligns with Theorem 1, predicting characteristics of microlocal singularities of wave functions. Furthermore, Theorem 2 postulates that semiclassical path integrals along these singularities contribute significantly to solving the Schrödinger equation. Interpreting the temporal evolution of the probability density in the probability distribution visualization reveals the propagation of the particle over time. Regions of high density mean likely presence of particles at specific times, aligning with the predictions of Theorem 2. Consequently, the analysis of the contribution of high-density regions to the temporal evolution of the wave function resembles semi-classical path integral calculations. Thus, our findings demonstrate that visualization of probability distributions obtained from the numerical resolution of the Schrödinger equation allows a comprehensive interpretation of the behavior of quantum particles, consistent with the theorems.

Bagging Algorithm Based on Possibilistic Data Interpolation for Brain-Computer Interface

Recently, brain-computer interfaces (BCIs) and brain-machine interfaces have garnered the attention of researchers. Based on connections with external devices, external computers and machines can be controlled by brain signals measured via near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS) or electroencephalograph devices. Herein, we propose a novel bagging algorithm that generates interpolation data around misclassified data using a possibilistic function, to be applied to BCIs. In contrast to AdaBoost, which is a conventional ensemble learning method that increases the weight of misclassified data to incorporate them with high probability to the next datasets, we generate interpolation data using a membership function centered on misclassified data and incorporate them into the next datasets simultaneously. The interpolated data are known as virtual data herein. By adding the virtual data to the training data, the volume of the training data becomes sufficient for adjusting the discriminate boundary more accurately. Because the membership function is defined as a possibility distribution, this method is named the bagging algorithm based on the possibility distribution. Herein, we formulate a bagging-type ensemble learning based on the possibility distribution and discuss the usefulness of the proposed method for solving simple calculations using NIRS data.

ARX-Naïve Bayes based structural damage identification

ABSTRACT The nature of damage identification is close to a pattern recognition process that classifies different damage patterns. The naïve Bayes classifier (NBC) can effectively handle multiple-classification problems by choosing patterns with high probabilities. Therefore, by absorbing the autoregressive model with exogenous inputs (the ARX model), an ARX-Naïve Bayes damage identification strategy has been proposed in which the autoregressive coefficients of the ARX model are taken as the sensitive damage feature. The classification training and test sample datasets are then built on these coefficients corresponding to various damage scenarios. The model order of an AR model is first determined for the subsequent order selection of the ARX model, whose autoregressive coefficients are further used to construct the NBC. This procedure can enhance the pattern recognition robustness to uncertainties such as measurement noises. Different damage patterns are determined by calculating the sum of logarithmic likelihoods of testing samples. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been verified against a bridge benchmark model having different damage scenarios under the noise pollution. In addition, an experimental five-story shear frame structure was adopted for validation, showing that compared with the SVM algorithm suitable for handling binary classification problems, the proposed method excels in multi-classification of damage patterns.

Wavelet Feature Screening

An initial screening of which covariates are relevant is a common practice in high-dimensional regression models. The classic feature screening selects only a subset of covariates correlated with the response variable. However, many important features might have a relevant albeit highly nonlinear relation with the response. One screening approach that handles nonlinearity is to compute the correlation between the response and nonparametric functions of each covariate. Wavelets are powerful tools for nonparametric and functional data analysis but are still seldom used in the feature screening literature. We propose a wavelet feature screening method that can be easily implemented, and we prove that, under suitable conditions, it captures the true covariates with high probability. Simulation results also show that our approach outperforms other screening methods in highly nonlinear models. We apply feature screening to two datasets about ozone concentration and epilepsy. In both applications, the proposed method selects features that match findings in the literature of their respective research fields, illustrating the applicability of feature screening. Supplementary material for this article is available online.

REPEATED MYOCARDIAL INFARCTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH KAWASAKI SYNDROME

Kawasaki syndrome is characterized by damage to the coronary arteries with the formation of aneurysms, which persist and progress after the completion of the acute stage of the process and cause hemodynamically significant stenoses and thrombosis. The literature research data on cardiac pathology in patients with Kawasaki syndrome are presented. A clinical case of a young non-mongoloid patient with a high probability of Kawasaki syndrome suffered in childhood is described. Repeated myocardial infarctions, multiple aneurysms of characteristic shapes and sizes in the coronary arteries are confirmation of this disease. With the development of coronary pathology in young people, when conducting a diagnostic search, it is necessary to remember about the Kawasaki syndrome.

Application of ultrasonic diagnostics in the study of urogenital organs of birds

Ultrasound examination is one of the most accessible and having a high probability of competence of research of diagnostics of diseases of internal organs, which are carried out mainly in small pets. The aim of the study is to obtain information about parenchymatous organs in birds in norm and in case of pathologic changes for making or confirming clinical diagnosis. Material and methods. Ultrasound diagnostics of avian oviduct was carried out on ultrasonic diagnostic scanner ETS-D-05 "Raskan", ~ 220V, 50 Hz, 100 VA, class 1. The transducer is microconvex 7.5 MHz. Results. At ultrasound examination of the kidneys in the chicken, it was noted that the kidneys had smooth, clear boundaries. The echostructure of cortical and brain layers in the median plane is heterogeneous, echogenicity of parenchyma corresponds to the norm. The capsule is not visualized. The presence of lighter and darker areas in the parenchyma is clearly visible, which is associated with filtration of mineral substances contained in the blood. Ultrasound examination of the genitalia in the chicken was carried out in several stages. At the first stage, the presence of a mature follicle was noted. Localized volumetric formations of rounded shape - follicles at different stages of development were revealed. They have homogeneous echogenicity and echostructure of hyperechogenic character, giving a weak acoustic shadow. In the second stage of the study we noted the presence of yolk covered with vitelline shell, which is located in the central part of the albumen section of the oviduct, has a high density and good echogenicity. In the third stage, the yolk is located in the caudal part of the albumen section. At its periphery, the albumen with several layers is located. Protein section is displaced somewhat to the left, has strongly tortuous loops. The wall of the albumen is well structured, the expression of layers is weakly marked. In the cavity of the oviduct, the content of the oviduct is homogeneous with a small amount of content of liquid consistency. At the fourth stage of the study in the uterus of the oviduct, an anechogenic formation - an egg - is visualized on the echogram. In its center, a hypoechogenic structure with indistinct contours - yolk is detected. The contours of the egg are smooth, borders are indistinct. The egg completely fills the uterine cavity, the lumen between the egg and the uterine wall is absent, the uterine wall contours are clear and even with homogeneous echogenic structure, no nodular formations are detected, uterine vessels are not dilated.

A LONG QT SYNDROME WITHOUT MANIFESTATION

Abstract A 66–year–old Caucasian woman presented for outpatient evaluation due to elevated blood pressure levels at home (approximately 220/120 mmHg) and a significant family history of long QT syndrome. The index case in the family appeared to be her sister, investigated following an ECG showing markedly prolonged QT interval and a family history of sudden cardiac death. The patient underwent genetic analysis, revealing a positive mutation in KCNQ1. She was currently on treatment with Levotiroxina for recently discovered hypothyroidism.The ECG showed sinus rhythm with a heart rate of 85 bpm, signs of left ventricular hypertrophy, particularly Sokolow (SV1 + RV6 70 mm) and Peguero Lo Presti (SD + SV4 50 mm). The QTc interval was 515 ms (Bazett). Echocardiography revealed severe left ventricular hypertrophy (SIVd 14 mm; PWd 12 mm; LVMi 128 g/m2; RWT 0.5) with normal overall systolic function (EF 60%). No significant valvular pathologies were observed, and the right ventricle appeared normal in size and function.The hypertrophy was attributed to uncontrolled severe arterial hypertension. However, the identification of a prolonged QT interval in a patient with a strong family component (Schwartz score 4, high probability) led to genetic testing, confirming a mutation in KCNQ1. As the patient was asymptomatic with a low risk of major arrhythmias over the next 5 years (1–2–3–LQTS–risk score 2.77%), she entered follow–up and received beta–blocker therapy, specifically nadolol, combined with other antihypertensive medications.This clinical case describes an entire family with LQTS1 (type 1) positive for KCNQ1 mutation, exhibiting phenotypic manifestations distinct from those reported in the literature. Notably, there was a prevalence in females, and the condition was incidentally discovered during a routine checkup conducted for unrelated reasons, without any history of major arrhythmias.Long QT syndrome (LQTS) is characterized by a prolonged QT interval, predisposing individuals to life–threatening arrhythmias leading to syncope and sudden death. Mutations in genes encoding ion channels account for 75% of LQTS cases. LQTS1, associated with a "loss–of–function" mutation in the KCNQ1 gene, represents one of the three genetic subtypes. LQTS1 typically manifests with arrhythmias in childhood, with a male predominance. Adrenergic triggers are crucial precipitants for arrhythmic events

PULMONARY VENO–OCCLUSIVE DISEASE ASSOCIATED WITH METHAMPHETAMINE ABUSE: A FIRST CASE DESCRIPTION

Abstract Background Recreational methamphetamine is widely used worldwide (about 35 million people), mainly as 3,4–Methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA). A definite association has been established between methamphetamine and pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). This drug–associated form of PAH shares histological, clinical and hemodynamic characteristics, prognosis and treatment strategies with idiopathic PAH. However, the association between MDMA and a rarer and devasting form of PAH with concomitant venous involvement (pulmonary veno–occlusive disease, PVOD), has never been reported. Notably, initiation of PAH–specific treatment in PVOD may lead to catastrophic consequences. Case Description A 32–year–old man was fast–track referred to our PH Centre in December 2023, due to high echocardiographic probability of pulmonary hypertension (PH). After interrogation, he admitted the regular use of MDMA. No other risk factor for PAH was found. Right heart catheterization showed a pre–capillary PH (mean pulmonary artery pressure 35 mmHg; wedge pressure 12 mmHg; pulmonary vascular resistance 5.9 WU) with low cardiac output (2.2 L/min/m2) and no acute response to vasoreactivity testing. Exercise capacity was severely reduced (oxygen consumption 19.6 mL/Kg/min, 50% of predicted) due to absent stroke volume reserve, accompanied by augmented exercise hyperventilation (VE/VCO2 slope 60) and exercise–induced desaturation (SaO2 94 à 77%), this latter not explained by a right–to–left shunt. Diffusion capacity of the lung was severely reduced (DLCO 28%). Chest CT and perfusion scan excluded both thromboembolic etiology and parenchymal lung disease. A diagnosis of PVOD was made, based on the presence of pre–capillary PH, oxygen desaturation, extreme exercise hyperventilation and very low DLCO, even in the absence of pathognomonic CT features. Counselling for stopping MDMA abuse was offered. Cautious monotherapy with macitentan was started and was well tolerated. A genetic testing for EIF2AK4 is ongoing. Contact with transplant center has been performed. A follow–up RHC has been planned before careful therapy up–titration. Conclusions This is the first case reported of the potential association between methamphetamines and PVOD. Due to the large worldwide use of MDMA, this link should be considered because of its prognostic and therapeutic implications. The diagnosis of PVOD is a clinical one, needing a high index of suspicion especially in the absence of chest CT findings.

THE SIGN OF THE HORNS: A RARE CASE OF DOUBLE PERI–COMMISSURAL MITRAL FLAIL

Abstract A 80–year–old man with history of hypertension and dyslipidemia was admitted to our Cardiology Unit for exertional dyspnea (NYHA III) occurred during the last few days. The physical examination showed a systolic heart murmur (4/6 on Levine scale) and signs of pulmonary congestion. Transthoracic echocardiography revealed a massive mitral regurgitation (Fig.1) together with severe dilation of the left atrium, mild–to–moderate aortic regurgitation, high probability of pulmonary hypertension and normal biventricular systolic function. A transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) was performed to clarify mitral valve anatomy. A double flail of the posterior leaflet was present involving the peri–commissural portions due to a single chordal rupture on P1 scallop and a double chordal rupture on P3 scallop (Fig.2). P2 scallop was prolapsing and there was a billowing of the anterior leaflet. In addiction mitral annulus was dilated (antero–posterior diameter of 43 mm and intercommissural diameter of 45 mm). We named this finding “sign of the horns” for his 3D echocardiographic appearance (Fig.3) given the double flail resembling two fingers. A surgical correction was performed with 3 GoreTex neochords implantation on the posterior leaflet and an annuloplasty ring (Physio II n. 34) implantation during extracorporeal circulation through right anterior minithoracotomy. Surgical and echocardiographic results were optimal. The patient was discharged after 7 days of hospitalization. Conclusion Coexistence of a double peri–commissural flail in the same leaflet is a very rare echocardiographic finding and we named it “double horn sign”. TEE is an essential examination in this scenario in order to understand the exact mechanism of the regurgitation for an optimal preoperative planning.

Foraging Segregation Between Adult Female Northern Elephant Seals (Mirounga angustirostris) from Guadalupe Island and the San Benito Archipelago, Mexico

Female northern elephant seals (Mirounga angustirostris) are migratory animals that form colonies along the coasts of California and the Baja California Peninsula, Mexico. A recent decline in abundance has been recorded in this species Mexican distribution, which is an important reason to investigate the different ecological processes operating in these colonies. The aim of this study was to determine values of stable isotope ratios (δ13C and δ15N) in pup fur as foraging maternal indicators. During the same breeding season (2015), pup fur samples were collected to investigate these foraging variations between the two major Mexican colonies—Guadalupe Island (GI) and the San Benito Archipelago (SBA). Isotopic areas were built using the ‘SIBER’ package in R, and a custom hierarchical Bayesian model was used to compare the values from both localities. Mean (± standard deviation [SD]) δ13C values for individuals from GI and the SBA were -16.9 ± 0.8‰ and -17.3 ± 0.4‰, respectively, while δ15N values were 17.4 ± 1.1‰ and 16.7 ± 1.1‰, respectively. The difference between the posterior means indicated a high probability (P &gt; 99%) of GI having higher stable isotope ratio values than the SBA. For the posterior SDs, there were highly probable differences (P = 100%) only for δ13C, where GI had a higher dispersion. Such differences explained why GI presented a wider isotopic niche area than the SBA, indicating more diverse foraging habits along GI’s offshore-inshore gradient. Additionally, GI showed higher δ15N values than the SBA. Although this could be related to a slightly higher trophic position for GI individuals, the latitudinal effects of foraging grounds with distinct isotopic baselines remain a plausible explanation for the variations in both isotope ratios, suggesting that individuals from the SBA foraged in a more northerly location than those from GI. This study provides valuable knowledge about how females from both colonies partition resources, especially regarding habitat use.

Phylum-level studies of bacterial cutinases for unravelling enzymatic specificity toward PET degradation: an in silico approach.

The overwhelming use of PET plastic in various day-to-day activities led to the voluminous increase in PET waste and growing environmental hazards. A plethora of methods have been used that are associated with secondary pollutants. Therefore, microbial degradation of PET provides a sustainable approach due to its versatile metabolic diversity and capacity. The present work highlights the cutinase enzyme's role in PET degradation. This study focuses on the bacterial cutinases homologs screened from 43 reported phylum of bacteria. The reported bacterial cutinases for plastic degradation have been chosen as reference sequences, and 917 sequences have shown homology across the bacterial phyla. The dienelactone hydrolase (DLH) domain was identified for attaining specificity towards PET binding in 196 of 917 sequences. Various computational tools have been used for the physicochemical characterization of 196 sequences. The analysis revealed that most selected sequences are hydrophilic, extracellular, and thermally stable. Based on this analysis, 17 sequences have been further pursued for three-dimensional structure prediction and validation. The molecular docking studies of 17 selected sequences revealed efficient PET binding with the three sequences derived from the phylum Bacteroidota, the lowest binding energy of -5.9kcal/mol, Armatimonadota, and Nitrososphaerota with -5.8kcal/mol. The two enzyme sequences retrieved from the phylum Bacteroidota and Armatimonadota are metagenomically derived. Therefore, the present studies concluded that there is a high probability of finding cutinase homologs in various environmental resources that can be further explored for PET degradation.

Clinical value of semi-quantitative parameters in 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT in treatment and diagnostics of cranial meningioma in a single-center retrospective analysis

BackgroundThe value of somatostatin-analogon PET tracers in theranostics in cranial meningioma has been demonstrated in several studies however, the value of semi-quantitative parameters for therapy and patient outcome is still unclear.MethodsA retrospective study was performed comparing measured semi-quantitative 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT parameters (maximum standardized uptake value = SUVmax, mean standardized uptake value = SUVmean, and metabolic tumor volume = MTV) and calculated ratios (SUVmax tumor/to pituitary gland, SUVmax tumor to superior sinus sagittalis), versus WHO grades and overall outcome. Patients with histological confirmed meningioma or high probability for meningioma in previous cranial MRI were eligible.ResultsThirty-two patients from January 2018 to February 2023 were retrospectively included. WHO grade I meningioma was confirmed in 17 patients, WHO grade II in five patients, WHO grade III in two patients, while in eight patients diagnosis was solely based on MRI and 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT findings. In 12 cases stable disease was present, in 15 cases radiation therapy was chosen, in three cases neurosurgery was preferred while in two cases palliative care was chosen. Median SUVmax values increased with WHO grade (15.84, 17.22, and 28.4, p = 0.134, Kruskal–Wallis-test) and no statistically significant difference was present for MTV, SUVmax, and calculated ratios, although the ratio for SUVmax tumor to superior sinus sagittalis had the lowest value of p = 0.067.ConclusionIncreased SUVmax values in the tumor in 68Ga-DOTANOC PET/CT are associated with higher WHO grade, although further studies including larger patient collectives are needed to solidify this hypothesis.

Persistent ENSO Forcing on Holocene Flooding in the Middle‐Lower Yangtze River at Millennial Timescales

AbstractEl Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and profoundly affects river flooding globally, especially in East Asia. However, ENSO also has ∼2,000 and ∼1,000‐year cycles, but due to the lack of flood records with sufficient length, little is known about the ENSO's impact on floods at these millennial timescales. Here we test this in the middle‐lower Yangtze River by reconstructing the first Holocene flood record with optically stimulated luminescence and 14C ages of flood deposits. We find the periods with high flooding probability generally correspond with intervals of weakened solar activity. Importantly, the flood record displays 2,000 and 1,000‐year cycles similar to the ENSO record, and band‐pass filter results show the two records are synchronous at these bands. Our results reveal a persistent control of ENSO on millennial‐scale hydroclimatic variability in the Yangtze basin and likely other basins.

Equal Rights for Activators – Ytterbium to Terbium Cooperative Sensitization in Molecular Upconversion

Equal Rights for Activators – Ytterbium to Terbium Cooperative Sensitization in Molecular Upconversion

It is, uh, very likely? The impact of prosodic uncertainty cues on the perception and interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases.

People typically use verbal probability phrases when discussing risks ("It is likely that this treatment will work"), both in written and spoken communication. When speakers are uncertain about risks, they can nonverbally signal this uncertainty by using prosodic cues, such as a rising, question-like intonation or a filled pause ("uh"). We experimentally studied the effects of these two prosodic cues on the listener's perceived speaker certainty and numerical interpretation of spoken verbal probability phrases. Participants (N=115) listened to various verbal probability phrases that were uttered with a rising or falling global intonation and with or without a filled pause before the probability phrase. For each phrase, they gave a point estimate of their numerical interpretation in percentages and indicated how certain they thought the speaker was about the correctness of the probability phrase. Speakers were perceived as least certain when the verbal probability phrases were spoken with both prosodic uncertainty cues. Interpretation of verbal probability phrases varied widely across participants, especially when rising intonation was produced by the speaker. Overall, high probability phrases (e.g., "very likely") were estimated as lower (and low probability phrases, such as "unlikely," as higher) when they were uttered with a rising intonation. The effects of filled pauses were less pronounced, as were the uncertainty effects for medium probability phrases (e.g., "probable"). These results stress the importance of nonverbal communication when verbally communicating risks and probabilities to people, for example, in the context of doctor-patient communication.

Projection Forecasting Policy of Buton Asphalted Mining Management in Indonesia

Asphalt, which is the result of lubricating coal minerals (non-renewable), requires effective management from the government which is realized through rational policies. Efficient policy planning is needed to overcome policy problems without causing major consequences. This research aims to develop selected policy alternatives through selecting alternative policies for managing Buton asphalt mines in Buton Regency. The focus of this research is public policy analysis, namely methods for identifying problems, determining goals, evaluating alternative options, selecting alternatives, and measuring policy performance. This research, only focusing on the best alternative for management policies for the Buton asphalt mine in Kab. Buton. This research aims to analyze and identify: selected policy alternatives to be recommended in the management of asphalt mines in Kab. Buton. The approach used is mixed method. In problem formulation, using descriptive qualitative, to project policy alternatives using public policy analysis techniques through three stages (I), problem formulation techniques (hierarchy), developing into the Projection Forecasting method (extrapolative), ending with alternative selection based on Franklin's criteria. Alternative method looks at the consequences of each policy are equivalent to scoring based on technical, economic, financial and administrative feasibility. The research results show that there are three alternatives developed based on projection forecasting (extrapolative) assessments, namely: structuring institutional authority in asphalt mining management (2.36), strengthening Buton asphalt policy as a leading sector in Buton Regency (2.82), consistency policy in the preparation of Buton asphalt mine management policies (3.18). The selection of consistent alternatives for developing Buton asphalt mine management policies is the most prominent and has a fairly high probability of success and can be carried out. Where policy consistency through social mapping and domestic policy obligations increasing a larger portion for optimal domestic use (distribution to regions for use of State roads) can encourage the use of Buton asphalt nationally. If this condition continues, economic growth can continue. Alternative consistency in preparing Buton asphalt mine management policies in making Buton asphalt mine management policies is the best alternative choice for Buton asphalt mine management policies in Buton Regency.

Rainbow Hamiltonicity in uniformly coloured perturbed digraphs

Abstract We investigate the existence of a rainbow Hamilton cycle in a uniformly edge-coloured randomly perturbed digraph. We show that for every $\delta \in (0,1)$ there exists $C = C(\delta ) \gt 0$ such that the following holds. Let $D_0$ be an $n$ -vertex digraph with minimum semidegree at least $\delta n$ and suppose that each edge of the union of $D_0$ with a copy of the random digraph $\mathbf{D}(n,C/n)$ on the same vertex set gets a colour in $[n]$ independently and uniformly at random. Then, with high probability, $D_0 \cup \mathbf{D}(n,C/n)$ has a rainbow directed Hamilton cycle. This improves a result of Aigner-Horev and Hefetz ((2021) SIAM J. Discrete Math.35(3) 1569–1577), who proved the same in the undirected setting when the edges are coloured uniformly in a set of $(1 + \varepsilon )n$ colours.