High Probability Of Success Research Articles

Network effects in C-ITS – an analysis approach based on conditional probability and system characteristics

The paper presents an approach for analysing network effects in cooperative intelligent transport systems (C-ITS). The approach is based on the conditional probability of an already-equipped user receiving a warning or other required information, and a framework is provided for analysing the conditional probability of a successful exchange of information. The approach and the framework are validated by applying them to the road hazard warning use case of C-ITS implemented with vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication. The results suggest that even relatively low fleet penetrations may allow communicating a road hazard warning as a decentralized environmental notification message (DENM), with a high probability of success, when the hazard is detected and the related DENM transmitted by an oncoming vehicle travelling in the opposite direction to the user’s vehicle on a single-carriageway interurban road. The approach used in the paper and the analysis results for the road hazard warning contribute to the understanding of network effects in C-ITS use cases and their relationship to the operational context of C-ITS systems, such as parameters related to traffic flow.

Policy Optimization Algorithm with Activation Likelihood-Ratio for Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning

As a ubiquitous on-policy reinforcement learning algorithm, proximal policy optimization (PPO) has achieved the state-of-the-art performance in both single-agent and cooperative multi-agent scenarios. However, it still suffers from the instability and inefficiency of the policy optimization with the non-strictly restricted likelihood-ratio in clipping strategy. In this work, we propose an activation likelihood-ratio (ALR) for solving this issue. The ALR is restricted by a tanh activation function, and it can be employed in multiple functional clipping strategies. The resulted ALR clipping strategy produces a smooth but precipitous objective curve, which can provide high policy update stationarity and efficiency. The ALR clipping strategy is incorporated into the PPO loss function, thus resulting in the method proximal policy optimization with activation likelihood-ratio (PPO-ALR). The rationality and superiority of the ALR-based target function are proved and analyzed. Moreover, experiments on the Pistonball cooperative multi-agent game show that PPO-ALR produces competitive and superior results compared with the standard PPO, PPO with rollback, and PPO smoothed algorithms, especially its high efficiency and success probability in searching optimal policies in multi-agent environments.

Photoactivated chromophore for keratitis-Corneal cross-linking in dogs and cats: A retrospective study in Italy.

To evaluate the success and failure rate of photoactivated chromophore for keratitis-corneal cross-linking (PACK-CXL) therapy in a single population of dogs and cats. To identify the usefulness of the PACK-CXL based on ulcer depth and establish a cutoff at which this procedure could be recommended. To analyze the influence of the different variables in corneal healing time and to report the presence of secondary endothelial damage and cataract formation. Medical records of dogs and cats with presumptive infectious keratitis which underwent accelerated epithelium-off PACK-CXL between 2016 and 2023 were reviewed and analyzed. Records for 369 animals were included, and the overall success rate for healing was 97% (range 4-74 days and no rescue procedure). The second success (re-epithelialization <30 days and no rescue procedure) rate was 86%, and a total of 40 eyes needed more than 1 month for the corneal repair. Corneal ulcers were classified in three categories based on the depth: 0%-33% (46%), 34%-66% (37.4%), and 67%-100% (16.5%). The cutoff at which PACK-CXL had a higher probability of failure was with ulcer depth >66.5%. Animals who suffered from keratomalacia and hypopyon at presentation, or were treated with topical serum or gentamicin after PACK-CXL showed an increase in epithelial healing time (EHT). Increasing age, brachycephalic conformation, keratomalacia alone, and deeper ulcers were identified as risk factors for the treatment outcome. Secondary endothelial injury or cataract formation was not noted in this study. Accelerated PACK-CXL is a non-invasive, adjunctive treatment to medical therapy, which can be used in presumed infectious keratitis with a high probability of success. However, it is important to take in consideration the patient age, skull conformation, presence of keratomalacia, and the ulcer depth.

Finding and Mitigating a Vulnerability of the Color Wheel PIN Protocol

There is an increasing usage in the banking sector of Smartphones enabled with Near Field Communication (NFC), to improve the services offered for the customers. This usage requires a security enhancement of the systems that employ this technology like the Automated Teller Machines (ATMs). One example is the Color Wheel Personal Identification Number (CWPIN) security protocol designed to authenticate users on ATMs using NFC enabled smartphones without typing the PIN code directly. CWPIN has been compared in the literature to several other protocols and was considered easier to use, more cost-effective and more resistant to various attacks on ATMs such as card reader skimming, keylogger injection, shoulder surfing, etc. Nevertheless, we demonstrate in this paper that CWPIN is vulnerable to the multiple video recordings intersection attack. We do so through concrete examples and a thorough analysis that reveals a high theoretical probability of attack success. A malicious party can use one or two hidden cameras to record the ATM and smartphone screens during several authentication sessions, then disclose the user's PIN code by intersecting the information extracted from the video recordings. In a more complex scenario, these video recordings could be obtained by malware injected into the ATM and the user's smartphone to record their screens during CWPIN authentication sessions. Our intersection attack requires a few recordings, usually three or four, to reveal the PIN code and can lead to unauthorized transactions if the user's smartphone is stolen. We also propose a mitigation of the identified attack through several modifications to the CWPIN protocol and discuss its strengths and limitations.

Anonymous collision detection for practical quantum networks

This paper provides a novel protocol based on two-dimensional Greenberger-Horne-Zeilinger (GHZ) states for anonymously detecting the collision between senders. The proposed protocol is anonymous in the passive, semi-active, and active adversary scenarios, and is able to figure out the number of senders in a practical quantum network. By using Qiskit to implement the proposed protocol with a network of 4 honest agents, it is found that the proposed protocol is of correctness and has higher success probabilities in comparison with the existing two-dimensional-GHZ-state-based protocol under four widely-used types of quantum noise.

Programmable silicon-photonic quantum simulator based on a linear combination of unitaries

Simulating the dynamic evolution of physical and molecular systems in a quantum computer is of fundamental interest in many applications. The implementation of dynamics simulation requires efficient quantum algorithms. The Lie-Trotter-Suzuki approximation algorithm, also known as the Trotterization, is basic in Hamiltonian dynamics simulation. A multi-product algorithm that is a linear combination of multiple Trotterizations has been proposed to improve the approximation accuracy. However, implementing such multi-product Trotterization in quantum computers remains challenging due to the requirements of highly controllable and precise quantum entangling operations with high success probability. Here, we report a programmable integrated-photonic quantum simulator based on a linear combination of unitaries, which can be tailored for implementing the linearly combined multiple Trotterizations, and on the simulator we benchmark quantum simulation of Hamiltonian dynamics. We modify the multi-product algorithm by integrating it with oblivious amplitude amplification to simultaneously reach high simulation precision and high success probability. The quantum simulator is devised and fabricated on a large-scale silicon-photonic quantum chip, which allows the initialization, manipulation, and measurement of arbitrary four-qubit states and linearly combined unitary gates. As an example, the quantum simulator is reprogrammed to emulate the dynamics of an electron spin and nuclear spin coupled system. This work promises the practical dynamics simulations of real-world physical and molecular systems in future large-scale quantum computers.

A deterministic qudit-dependent high-dimensional photonic quantum gate with weak cross-kerr nonlinearity

High-dimensional quantum systems expand the Hilbert space, enabling the processing of more intricate information and the execution of wider quantum operations. The development of high-dimensional quantum systems relies significantly on the implementation of high-dimensional gates. In the paper, we propose a deterministic 4 × 4-dimensional controlled-not (CNOT) gate for a three-photon system, where encoding on the polarization-spatial state of a single photon acts as a 4-dimensional control qudit, meanwhile the polarized state of the remaining two photons serves as a 4-dimensional target qudit. The implementation of the gate leverages weak cross-kerr nonlinearities and X-homodyne detectors, which impose lower requirements on the interaction strength and demonstrate robustness against photon loss. In accordance with the measurement of the coherent state, the relevant classical feed-forward operations are employed to make high-dimensional CNOT gate effective. Additionally, the proposed scheme demonstrates a high successful probability as a result of the utilization of mature measurement methods and straightforward optical elements. Further, the fidelity of the CNOT gate is robust against photon loss and is approximate to 1 with the existing technology. Consequently, our deterministic protocol presents a promising approach for the practical realization of high-dimensional quantum computation for photon systems.

Prediction of sustained remission after tyrosine kinase inhibitor discontinuation with BCR::ABL1 digital PCR in chronic myeloid leukemia patients.

Precise and reliable predictive parameters to accurately identify chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients who can successfully discontinue their tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI) treatment are lacking. One promising parameter is depth of molecular response measured by BCR::ABL1 digital PCR (dPCR). The aim of this study was to validate a previously described prediction cutoff of 0.0023%IS and to assess the value of dPCR for treatment-free remission (TFR) prediction in relation to other clinical parameters. A droplet-based dPCR assay assessed BCR::ABL1 %IS prior to TKI discontinuation. The primary endpoint was molecular recurrence (MolR) by 36 months. A total of 186 patients from Canada, Germany, and the Netherlands were included. In patients with a first TKI discontinuation attempt (n = 163), a BCR::ABL1 dPCR < and ≥0.0023%IS had a MolR probability of 33% and 70%, respectively. Patients treated less than 6 years with a BCR::ABL1 dPCR <0.0023%IS had a MolR probability of 31%. After correction for treatment duration, both high dPCR value and the use of imatinib (vs. second-generation TKI) were significantly associated with a higher risk of MolR (HR of 3.66, 95%CI 2.06-6.51, p < .001; and 2.85, 95%CI 1.25-6.46, p = .013, respectively). BCR::ABL1 dPCR was not associated with TFR outcome after second TKI discontinuation, however, with the limitation of a small number of patients analyzed (n = 23). In conclusion, BCR::ABL1 digital PCR based on the cutoff of 0.0023%IS is a valuable predictive tool to identify CML patients with a high probability of TFR success after first TKI discontinuation, including patients treated for less than 6 years.

Who will sign a double tax treaty next? A prediction based on economic determinants and machine learning algorithms

Double tax treaties play a crucial role in shaping international economic relations, yet predicting which country pairs are likely to sign tax treaties remains a challenge. This study addresses this gap by employing a novel machine learning approach to predict tax treaty formations. Using data from a wide range of countries, we apply a series of classification algorithms and identify 59 country pairs likely to have tax treaties given their economic conditions. Our findings reveal that variables such as foreign direct investment, trade, Gross Domestic Product, and distance are significant predictors of tax treaty formations. Importantly, we demonstrate that the random forest classification algorithm outperforms conventional econometric methods in predicting tax treaty formations. By identifying which potential treaties exhibit a high probability of success, this paper gives policymakers an indication where to focus their attention and resources in upcoming treaty negotiations.

The Human Capital Effects of Access to Elite Jobs

We study the human capital effects of access to elite bureaucratic jobs in Taiwan, where performance on an examination determines entry into the civil service. Historically, quotas for successful applicants were set based on the 1948 populations of individuals’ native provinces in mainland China. This resulted in a higher probability of success on the exam—and, thus, greater access to elite positions—for descendants of certain migrant groups. These preferential quotas were replaced in 1962 with a uniform admissions policy. Using this variation, we find that the incentives created by preferential quotas increased human capital and improved long-run economic outcomes. (JEL D73, H83, J24, J45, M51)

High-dimensional two-photon quantum controlled phase-flip gate

High-dimensional quantum systems have been used to reveal interesting fundamental physics and to improve information capacity and noise resilience in quantum information processing. However, it remains a significant challenge to realize universal two-photon quantum gates in high dimensions with high success probability. Here, by considering an ion-cavity QED system, we theoretically propose, to the best of our knowledge, the first high-dimensional, deterministic, and universal two-photon quantum gate. By using an optical cavity embedded with a single trapped Ca+40 ion, we achieve a high average fidelity larger than 98% for a quantum controlled phase-flip gate in four-dimensional space, spanned by photonic spin angular momenta and orbital angular momenta. Our proposed system can be an essential building block for high-dimensional quantum information processing, and also provides a platform for studying high-dimensional cavity QED. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Innovative or complacent: The impact of financial conditions on firms’ strategic innovation activities—A game-theoretical approach

This study investigates the influence of Research and Development (R&D) program conditions on strategic project selection within firms, employing a game-theoretic approach. It hypothesizes that firms align their optimal project choices with the broader objectives akin to a social planner’s perspective. The developed theoretical model forecasts behavioral patterns of firms under varied R&D program conditions, which is substantiated by empirical analysis within the unique quasi-experimental policy environment of South Korea. According to the model, firms facing higher financial costs are inclined to select projects with lower probabilities of success but potentially higher returns (high risk-high reward), in contrast to those with lower costs, which prefer projects with higher success probabilities but lower returns (low risk-modest reward). The findings from both theoretical projections and empirical validation suggest that the financial circumstances significantly shape the innovation dynamics within firms’ R&D activities. These results underscore the need for careful consideration of these factors in the design and implementation of R&D financing policies.

Selling Bonus Actions in Video Games

In the mobile video games industry, a common in-app purchase is for additional “moves” or “time” in single-player puzzle games. We call these in-app purchases bonus actions. In some games, bonus actions can only be purchased in advance of attempting a level of the game (pure advance sales (PAS)), yet in other games, bonus actions can only be purchased in a “spot” market that appears when an initial attempt to pass the level fails (pure spot sales). Some games offer both advance and spot purchases (hybrid advance sales). This paper studies these selling strategies for bonus actions in video games. Such a question is novel to in-app tools selling in video games, and it cannot be answered by previous advance selling studies focusing on end goods. We model the selling of bonus actions as a stochastic extensive form game. We show how the distribution of skill among players (i.e., their inherent ability to pass the level) and the inherent randomness of the game influence selling strategies. For casual games, where low-skill players have a sufficiently high probability of success in each attempt, if the proportion of high-skill players is either sufficiently large or sufficiently small, firms should adopt PAS and shut down the “spot” market. Furthermore, the player welfare-maximizing selling strategy is to sell only in the spot market. Hence, no “win-win” strategy exists for casual games. However, PAS can be a win-win for hardcore games, where low-skill players have a sufficiently low success probability for each attempt. This paper was accepted by Hemant Bhargava, information systems. Funding: C. T. Ryan received funding from NSERC Discovery [Grant RGPIN-2020-06488]. Supplemental Material: The online appendix is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.02348 .

Restoration of teeth lacking complete ferrules using cast precious metal alloy post-and-cores and knife-edged crowns: A retrospective clinical study

Statement of problemWhile the presence of a ferrule has been reported to be essential for post-and-core restorations, many extensively damaged teeth lack complete ferrules. The outcome of post-and-core restorations for these teeth remains uncertain. PurposeThe purpose of this retrospective clinical study was to assess the outcome of cast alloy post-and-cores and knife-edged crowns for the restoration of teeth lacking complete ferrules. Material and methodsA total of 106 participants with endodontically treated teeth with 2 or fewer walls with ferrules who had received cast precious metal alloy post-and-cores along with knife-edged crowns between 2013 and 2022 were recalled for a clinical examination. The minimum follow-up time was 5 months after restoration, and restoration failure and the periodontal status difference between restored teeth and reference teeth were determined. Kaplan-Meier analysis was performed to obtain success curves. The influence of age, sex, jaw position, tooth type, and antagonistic dentition upon the success function was analyzed with the log-rank or Breslow test (α=.05). ResultsA total of 100 participants with 130 restorations were studied. The success rate of the restorations was 93.85% in a mean ±standard deviation period of 48.3 ±26.1 months. The estimated 5-year cumulative success probability was 91.61%. No significant effect on the success of restorations was found regarding age, sex, jaw position, tooth type, or antagonistic dentition (P>.05). The main failure types were post debonding, root fracture, and apical periodontitis. No statistical difference in tooth mobility (Z=−1.265, P=.206) was found between the restored and the reference teeth, but the plaque index and calculus index of the restored teeth were significantly lower than of the reference teeth (Z=−7.216, P<.001; Z=−7.044, P<.001). Teeth that had received cast post-and-cores and knife-edged crowns were found to have no significant correlation with periodontal disease (χ²=1.131, P=.288) or bleeding on probing (χ²=3.436, P=.064). ConclusionsThe clinical outcomes for the restoration of teeth with 2 or fewer walls with ferrules using cast precious metal alloy post-and-cores and knife-edged crowns were favorable, exhibiting a high 5-year cumulative success probability and no increased periodontal health risk.

On the Success Probability of Quantum Order Finding

We prove a lower bound on the probability of Shor’s order-finding algorithm successfully recovering the order r in a single run. The bound implies that by performing two limited searches in the classical post-processing part of the algorithm, a high success probability can be guaranteed, for any r , without re-running the quantum part or increasing the exponent length compared to Shor. Asymptotically, in the limit as r tends to infinity, the probability of successfully recovering r in a single run tends to one. Already for moderate r , a high success probability exceeding e.g. 1 - 10 -4 can be guaranteed. As corollaries, we prove analogous results for the probability of completely factoring any integer N in a single run of the order-finding algorithm.

Projection Forecasting Policy of Buton Asphalted Mining Management in Indonesia

Asphalt, which is the result of lubricating coal minerals (non-renewable), requires effective management from the government which is realized through rational policies. Efficient policy planning is needed to overcome policy problems without causing major consequences. This research aims to develop selected policy alternatives through selecting alternative policies for managing Buton asphalt mines in Buton Regency. The focus of this research is public policy analysis, namely methods for identifying problems, determining goals, evaluating alternative options, selecting alternatives, and measuring policy performance. This research, only focusing on the best alternative for management policies for the Buton asphalt mine in Kab. Buton. This research aims to analyze and identify: selected policy alternatives to be recommended in the management of asphalt mines in Kab. Buton. The approach used is mixed method. In problem formulation, using descriptive qualitative, to project policy alternatives using public policy analysis techniques through three stages (I), problem formulation techniques (hierarchy), developing into the Projection Forecasting method (extrapolative), ending with alternative selection based on Franklin's criteria. Alternative method looks at the consequences of each policy are equivalent to scoring based on technical, economic, financial and administrative feasibility. The research results show that there are three alternatives developed based on projection forecasting (extrapolative) assessments, namely: structuring institutional authority in asphalt mining management (2.36), strengthening Buton asphalt policy as a leading sector in Buton Regency (2.82), consistency policy in the preparation of Buton asphalt mine management policies (3.18). The selection of consistent alternatives for developing Buton asphalt mine management policies is the most prominent and has a fairly high probability of success and can be carried out. Where policy consistency through social mapping and domestic policy obligations increasing a larger portion for optimal domestic use (distribution to regions for use of State roads) can encourage the use of Buton asphalt nationally. If this condition continues, economic growth can continue. Alternative consistency in preparing Buton asphalt mine management policies in making Buton asphalt mine management policies is the best alternative choice for Buton asphalt mine management policies in Buton Regency.

Artificial intelligence warm-start approach: optimizing the generalization capability of QAOA in complex energy landscapes

To address the issue of the quantum approximate optimization algorithm frequently encountering local minima and the cost of parameter optimization within complex non-convex optimization energy landscapes, we consider a warm-start method. This approach leverages the characteristics of transition states in the enhanced optimizer, specifically descending along unique negative curvature directions, to find smaller local minima. Our research results indicate that with the assistance of an enhanced pre-training structure of the AlphaZero AI model, the initialization generalization ability of the new optimizer is significantly enhanced across various test sets. We train on 2-SAT training sets with clause densities between α ≈ 2.6 and α ≈ 2.89, and transfer to more complex test sets. Additionally, the average residual energy density in transfer learning consistently remains below 0.01, even achieving a high transfer success probability of 98% in hard instances with α ≈ 3.7. The search efficiency, pre-trained by ensemble learning, was significantly enhanced, while only requiring simple interpolation of a few transition points to transfer on the global optimal solutions at higher sample clause densities.

Forecasting the probability of successful deployment of internet of things and cloud computing in the building sector through consistent fuzzy preference relations method

Purpose This study aims to identify significant factors, analyse them using the consistent fuzzy preference relations (CFPR) method and forecast the probability of successful deployment of the internet of things (IoT) and cloud computing (CC) in Gujarat, India’s building sector. Design/methodology/approach From the previous studies, 25 significant factors were identified, and a questionnaire survey with personal interviews obtained 120 responses from building experts in Gujarat, India. The questionnaire survey data’s validity, reliability and descriptive statistics were also assessed. Building experts’ opinions are inputted into the CFPR method, and priority weights and ratings for probable outcomes are obtained to forecast success and failure. Findings The findings demonstrate that the most important factors are affordable system and ease of use and battery life and size of sensors, whereas less important ones include poor collaboration between IoT and cloud developer community and building sector and suitable location. The forecasting values demonstrate that the factor suitable location has a high probability of success; however, factors such as loss of jobs and data governance have a high probability of failure. Based on the forecasted values, the probability of success (0.6420) is almost twice that of failure (0.3580). It shows that deploying IoT and CC in the building sector of Gujarat, India, is very much feasible. Originality/value Previous studies analysed IoT and CC factors using different multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods to merely prioritise ranking in the building sector, but forecasting success/failure makes this study unique. This research is generally applicable, and its findings may be utilised for decision-making and deployment of IoT and CC in the building sector anywhere globally.

Efficient solution of the non-unitary time-dependent Schrodinger equation on a quantum computer with complex absorbing potential

We explore the possibility of adding complex absorbing potential at the boundaries when solving the one-dimensional real-time Schrödinger evolution on a grid using a quantum computer with a fully quantum algorithm described on a n qubit register. Due to the complex potential, the evolution mixes real- and imaginary-time propagation and the wave function can potentially be continuously absorbed during the time propagation. We use the dilation quantum algorithm to treat the imaginary-time evolution in parallel to the real-time propagation. This method has the advantage of using only one reservoir qubit at a time, that is measured with a certain success probability to implement the desired imaginary-time evolution. We propose a specific prescription for the dilation method where the success probability is directly linked to the physical norm of the continuously absorbed state evolving on the mesh. We expect that the proposed prescription will have the advantage of keeping a high probability of success in most physical situations. Applications of the method are made on one-dimensional wave functions evolving on a mesh. Results obtained on a quantum computer identify with those obtained on a classical computer. We finally give a detailed discussion on the complexity of implementing the dilation matrix. Due to the local nature of the potential, for n qubits, the dilation matrix only requires 2n CNOT and 2n unitary rotation for each time step, whereas it would require of the order of 4n+1 C-NOT gates to implement it using the best-known algorithm for general unitary matrices.

Entanglement concentration of W state using linear optics with a higher success probability

Entanglement concentration of W state using linear optics with a higher success probability