High Price Scenario Research Articles

Green hydrogen and wind synergy: Assessing economic benefits and optimal operational strategies

Volatile electricity prices have raised concerns about the economic feasibility of wind projects in Finland. This study assesses the economic viability and optimal operational strategies for integrating wind-powered green hydrogen production systems. Utilizing modeling and optimization, this research evaluates various wind farms in Western Finland over electricity market scenarios from 2019 to 2022, with forecasts extending to 2030. Key economic metrics considered include internal rate of return, future value, net present value (NPV), and the levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH). Results indicate that integration of hydrogen production with wind farms shows economic benefits over standalone wind projects, potentially reducing LCOH to €2.0/kgH2 by 2030 in regular and low electricity price scenarios, and to as low as €0.6/kgH2 in high-price scenarios. The wind farm with the highest capacity factor achieves 47% reductions in LCOH and 22% increases in NPV, underscoring the importance of strategic site selection and operational flexibility.

25 Effects of dietary standardized ileal digestible lysine on growth performance, carcass characteristics, and economics of pigs from 100 to 130 kg

Abstract A total of 1,570 finishing pigs (337 × 1050, PIC; initially 103.4 ± 0.85 kg) were used in a 28-d trial to determine the effects of feeding increasing standardized ileal digestible (SID) Lys to pigs between 100 to 130 kg on growth performance, carcass characteristics, and economics. Before the beginning of the study, the 3 heaviest pigs per pen were removed and marketed with all remaining pigs marketed 28-d later at the end of the study. Pigs were housed in mixed sex pens, with 20 pigs per pen and 20 pens per treatment. The experiment was a randomized complete block design with four dietary treatments: 0.63, 0.68, 0.75, and 0.82% SID Lys. Diets were corn-soybean meal-based and fed in meal form. Dietary treatments were similar in NE and increasing SID Lys was achieved by increasing soybean meal and feed grade amino acids. For the first 14 d from 100 to approximately 118 kg, there was a linear tendency for increased (P = 0.074) average daily gain (ADG), a linear improvement (P < 0.05) in gain to feed ratio (G:F), and increase (P < 0.001) in SID lysine intake per kg of gain as SID Lys increased (Table). For the second 14 d from 118 to 128 kg, SID Lys intake per kg of gain increased (P < 0.001) as SID Lys increased, however; there was no evidence for difference (P > 0.10) for any growth performance traits. Overall, there was a linear increase (P = 0.018) in G:F and increase (P < 0.001) in SID lysine intake per kg of gain as SID Lys increased. Increasing SID Lys also linearly increased (P < 0.05) percentage lean and decreased (P < 0.05) backfat depth with no evidence for differences (P > 0.10) in other carcass criteria. For economics, feed cost and feed cost per kg of gain linearly increased (P < 0.05) as SID Lys increased in both low and high-price scenarios. Income over feed cost linearly decreased (P < 0.05) as dietary SID Lys increased in a low-price scenario, but there was no difference between treatments in a high-price scenario (P > 0.10). In conclusion, increasing dietary SID lysine in the last 28-d of the finisher period linearly increased G:F and SID Lys intake per kg of gain without significantly influencing other growth performance traits. Feed cost per kg of gain was linearly increased for both low and high-price scenarios with a detriment for IOFC with increasing SID Lys in the low-price scenario.

PSII-18 Evaluating the effects of sodium diformate on finishing pig growth performance

Abstract A total of 2,200 pigs (Duroc sire (PIC 800 or DNA 600) × PIC Camborough; initial body weight = 24.2 ± 0.30 kg) were used in a 117-d growth trial to evaluate the effects of increasing dietary sodium diformate on finishing pig growth performance and carcass characteristics. Pens of pigs (25 pigs per pen) were randomly assigned to 1 of 4 dietary treatments in a randomized complete block design with 22 replicates per treatment. Dietary treatments were corn-soybean meal-based with the addition of none, 0.25, 0.50, or 0.75% sodium diformate (Formi NDF; ADDCON Nordic AS, Porsgrunn, Norway). Diets were fed in 6 phases from 24 to 141 kg. From d 0 to 32, increasing sodium diformate tended to decrease (quadratic, P = 0.081; Table 1) average daily feed intake (ADFI) up to the 0.50% inclusion level and had a quadratic (P < 0.001) effect on feed efficiency with the best gain to feed ratio (G:F) observed at 0.25% sodium diformate. From d 32 to 60, there was no evidence for differences (P > 0.10) in average daily gain (ADG) or ADFI; however, there was a tendency for a quadratic effect (P = 0.093) on G:F, with 0.25 and 0.50% inclusion of sodium diformate having the least G:F. From d 60 to 93, increasing sodium diformate increased (linear, P < 0.01) ADG and ADFI. Additionally, from d 93 to 117, increasing sodium diformate increased (linear, P < 0.05) ADG, ADFI, and G:F. For the overall period (d 0 to 117), pigs fed increasing sodium diformate had increased (linear, P < 0.01) ADG and a tendency for increased (linear, P = 0.075) ADFI; however, there was no evidence for differences (P > 0.10) in G:F. Treatment did not impact carcass characteristics (P > 0.10). Overall mortality was 1.1% and was not influenced (P > 0.10) by treatment. For economics, increasing sodium diformate increased (linear, P < 0.001) feed cost and feed cost per kg of gain in both low and high price scenarios. However, there was a tendency for a quadratic effect (P = 0.059) for revenue with pigs fed 0.25% sodium diformate generating the greatest revenue in both the low and high price scenarios. Due to the increased feed cost and quadratic response in revenue, pigs fed increasing sodium diformate resulted in a quadratic (P < 0.05) response in IOFC with pigs fed no sodium diformate having the greatest IOFC. In conclusion, these data suggest that feeding increasing sodium diformate improved ADG and ADFI after d 60 (~82 kg) in the finishing period. However, it is currently not economical to feed sodium diformate throughout the entire finishing period.

252 Evaluation of phase feeding and complete diet blending at different standardized ileal digestible lysine levels on finishing pig growth performance, carcass characteristics and diet costs

Abstract A total of 2,160 mixed-gender pigs [PIC 337 × 1050; initial body weight (BW) = 24.9 ± 0.97 kg) were used in the 120-d study to compare feeding strategies (phase feeding vs complete diet blending) at different SID Lys levels (90 vs 100% of suggested requirement estimates) on finishing pig growth performance, carcass characteristics, and economics. Pens of 27 pigs were assigned to 1 of 4 treatments in a completely randomized block design with barn and initial BW as blocking factors resulting in 20 pens/treatment. The treatments included two feeding programs: a 5-phase feeding strategy at either 90% (Phase-90) or 100% of SID Lys requirement estimates (Phase-100) or blending of complete diets with pre-defined mixing proportions of a low and high SID Lys diet to meet 90 (Blend-90) or 100% (Blend-100) of the SID Lys curve requirement estimates for 23 to 127 kg pigs. Lysine levels were based on PIC 2021 requirement estimates. The 90% SID Lys diets were formulated to contain 4.38, 3.73, 3.06, 2.66 and 2.44 g SID Lys per Mcal NE for phases 1 to 5, respectively. The 100% SID Lys diets were formulated to contain 4.86, 4.15, 3.40, 2.96 and 2.71 g SID Lys per Mcal NE for phases 1 to 5, respectively. Pigs in phase-feeding strategies were fed on a feed budget with 21, 65, 67, 63 and 62 kg per pig for phases 1 to 5, respectively. Final BW and overall average daily gain (ADG; d 0 to 120) were not affected by the feeding strategy nor by diet SID Lys levels. In contrast, overall average daily feed intake (ADFI0 of pigs fed by diet blending was less than those fed by phase feeding (P = 0.002) resulting in increased gain to feed ratio (G:F; P < 0.001) for pigs fed by diet blending (table). The SID Lys levels did not influence overall ADFI or G:F. Hot carcass weight, carcass yield, percentage lean, fat depth and loin depth were not affected by the feeding program. Despite the decreased overall ADFI and increased G:F of pigs fed by diet blending, feeding strategy resulted in no significant differences in economic criteria except for reduced feed cost per kg gain at high price scenario (P = 0.049) for diet blending. With low diet cost, the 90% SID Lys level resulted in decreased feed cost per pig and feed cost per kg gain than 100% SID Lys (P < 0.001), but differences were not detected in income over feed cost (IOFC). In conclusion, diet blending at either 90 or 100% of the SID Lys requirement estimate reduced ADFI and increased G:F without impacting average daily gain (ADG) or carcass characteristics. At ingredient prices used in this study, feeding strategies at either 90 or 100% SID Lys did not significantly affect IOFC, but feeding 90% of SID Lys recommendation reduced feed cost.

Power to gas plant for the production of bio-methane: Technoeconomic optimization

In this work, a power to bio-methane plant in which the biogas is produced from an anaerobic digester plant and the hydrogen is generated by using an electrolysis unit powered by a renewable plant (photovoltaic or wind-based), is designed and sized. The plant sizing is carried out by applying a techno-economic multi-objective black box optimization approach. A numerical code, built by using the Matlab software package, is used to evaluate components sizes and to assess plant costs. This code is implemented in an optimization workflow developed in the modeFRONTIER environment. This approach allows to identify the optimal size of the plants components with the aim of maximizing the annual bio-methane producibility and minimizing its levelized cost. The results show that for a low-price electricity scenario (45 €/MWh) the minimum levelized cost of bio-methane (LCOBM), equal to 84.6 €/MWh, is obtained adopting the PV-based configuration. On the contrary, considering an high-price scenario (135 €/MWh), the minimum LCOBM is obtained for the Wind-based plant and is equal to 34.9 €/MWh.

Investigation of environmental, operational and economic performance of methanol partially premixed combustion at slow speed operation of a marine engine

Abstract This study aims to investigate the environmental, operational and economic performance of the methanol partially premixed combustion concept at slow speed operation of a ship to find a solution for the shipping emission effect on the coastal settlements while do not increase the risk and expense of the engine operation on the ships. The experimental study was done with partially premixed combustion, one of the advanced combustion concepts, on a Scania D13 heavy-duty diesel engine for its promising results of high engine efficiency and low engine emissions. In addition to the experimental study with methanol fuel, the performance of the methanol was compared with marine gas oil, which was mostly used at the slow speed operation of the ships. Empirical equations and coefficients in the literature were used to calculate specific fuel consumption, efficiency, and emissions of the marine gas oiled operation of the engine. The results showed that the combustion efficiency varied from 0.94 to 0.99 and the gross indicated efficiency varied from 0.42 to 0.46 from 10% to 25% engine loads, respectively, while the gross indicated efficiency of the marine gas oil-fuelled engine was 0.32 as a maximum value. The methanol showed good environmental performance with lower CO2 emissions than the marine gas oil, lower NOX emissions than the NOX Tier III levels, varied between 0.3 g/kWh and 1.4 g/kWh, zero SOX emissions and zero PM emissions. The economic investigation showed that the methanol cost at the low price scenario was 0.147 $/kWh, 0.138 $/kWh and 0.135 $/kWh at 10%, 15% and 25%, respectively, which were lower than the high price scenario and low price scenario of the marine gas oil; and the methanol high price scenario was still competitive with the marine gas oil scenarios.

Costing methods for combined heat-and-power plants fueled by zero-marginal cost energy sources

In this paper, several cost metrics for application to a combined heat-and-power plant fueled by a zero-marginal cost energy source are studied. The mature levelized cost concepts are extended with some novel metrics such as the levelized cost of exergy. The results are given for a geothermal combined heat-and-power plant, connected to two different types of district heating systems and for two scenarios for the heat and electricity prices (high and low). For a low price scenario, the conventional costing method based on two separate prices for electrical and thermal energy is the most appropriate. Also for a high price scenario, the conventional costing method is the most appropriate for heat demands at low temperature. However, for higher-temperature heat demands, the exergy costing method results in the highest revenues for the combined heat-and-power plant. The authors recommend the use of the novel levelized cost of exergy metric as different types of energy are priced with a single value. Depending on the amount of energy and the usefulness of the energy type, an appropriate cost can be allocated to each product of a multi-energy system.

Assessment of Methods for Forecasting Shale Gas Supply in China Based on Economic Considerations

Shale gas, with its lower carbon content and pollution potential, is the most promising natural gas resource in China. When modeling the shale gas supply in a specific gas field, it is of paramount importance to determine the gas supply under economic considerations. Two common calculation methods are used in China for this purpose: Method 1 (M1) is the breakeven analysis, where the gas supply is based on the relationship between costs and revenues, while Method 2 (M2) is the Geologic Resource Supply-Demand Model, where the supply relies on demand and price scenarios. No comparisons has been made between these two methods. In this study, the Fuling shale gas field in the Sichuan Basin was chosen as a study case to forecast the shale gas supply using these two different methods. A sensitivity analysis was performed to discuss the influencing factors of each method and error measures were used to compare the different shale gas supply values calculated by each method. The results shows that M1 is more sensitive to initial production, while M2 is more sensitive to gas price. In addition, M2 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at high price scenarios and M1 is considered to be reliable for low price scenarios with profit. This study can provide a quick and comprehensive assessment method for the shale gas supply in China.

Predicting intentions to purchase organic food: the moderating effects of organic food prices

Purpose– Organic food represents the fastest growing sector in the food market, with outstanding performance in both production and sales. However, existing studies on organic food have lacked a strong theoretical foundation. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships among purchase intention and the properties, certification mechanisms, retail channels, and prices of organic food from multiple theoretical perspectives.Design/methodology/approach– Using a rigorous sampling design, 507 valid questionnaires collected from consumers at four well-known organic food markets, and the hypotheses were tested based on a linear structural equation model.Findings– The results of the structural equation model analysis showed the following: consumer attitudes toward organic food labeling/certification institutions had a positive impact on the trust in food labeling; channel dependence positively influenced the relational embeddedness in a channel; the effect of the nutritional value of organic food on environmental protection also had a positive impact on attitudes toward organic foods; attitudes toward trust in the organic label, relational embeddedness in a channel, and attitudes toward organic foods had a positive impact on consumer purchase intentions; and in relation to low-price scenarios, consumers required more confidence to purchase higher-priced goods, meaning that the relational embeddedness in a channel exerted more influence on purchase intentions. By contrast, compared to the high-price scenarios, consumers tended to choose lower priced goods based on personal preferences, e.g., making the purchase decision based on trust in the organic label and attitudes toward organic food.Originality/value– The contributions of this study include the following: the relationships among the variables were investigated comprehensively from multiple theoretical perspectives; and the results can help the government and the organic food industry to understand their respective responsibilities in promoting organic food to reduce the waste of resources, in which the government can provide basic information on organic food, e.g., a certification mechanism and related definitions, while the organic food industry provides specific knowledge about organic foods, e.g., product features.

Examining the impact of carbon price changes under a personalised carbon trading scheme for transport

The research presented in this paper investigates the welfare effects of a Personal Carbon Trading Scheme (PCTS). A consumer surplus analysis is used to determine the welfare loss to individuals who undertake travel-to-work trips in the Dublin and the Western Border Region (WBR) of Ireland. Three CO2 price scenarios are analysed: a low, medium and high carbon price. These results are compared at an aggregate level for each electoral division to existing measures of deprivation derived from the Census 2006 to determine if electoral wards designated as relatively deprived also incur the largest welfare losses. The results are also compared to the density of population in each electoral division to investigate any link between density levels and welfare changes, particularly in rural regions.The welfare model found a significant divergence in the changes in consumer surplus between both the study regions. While welfare changes were minimal in the low price scenario, divergences occurred in the medium and high price scenarios as individuals using more sustainable modes in urban areas benefited from the higher market price. Large welfare losses were found in the more rural WBR whilst most areas in Dublin were found to experience a welfare gain.

Oil supply between OPEC and non-OPEC based on game theory

The competing strategies between OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) and non-OPEC producers make the oil supply market a complex system, and thus, it is very difficult to model and to make predictions. In this paper, we combine the macro-model based on game theory and micro-model to propose a new approach for forecasting oil supply. We take into account the microscopic behaviour in the clearing market and also use the game relationships to adjust oil supplies in our approach. For the supply model, we analyse and consider the different behaviour of non-OPEC and OPEC producers. According to our analysis, limiting the oil supply, and thus maintaining oil price, is the best strategy for OPEC in the low-price scenario, while the rising supply is the best strategy in the high-price scenario. No matter what the oil price is, the dominant strategy for non-OPEC producers is to increase their oil supply. In the high-price scenario, OPEC will try to deplete non-OPEC’s share in the oil supply market, which is to OPEC’s advantage.

Long-Term Economic Viability of Production From Unconventional Liquids-Rich Reservoirs: The Case of Bakken Field

Summary Long-term economic viability of unconventional reservoirs is evaluated from the profit-maximizing perspective of a producing company. The case of the liquids-rich production from the Bakken field is considered as a representative of unconventional resources. A profit-margin optimization model is constructed for a company to meet the demand it faces from a stock of conventional and unconventional resources given different sets of exogenously determined prices. The model is parameterized using the different production-decline rates of the two sources, physical and economic exhaustibility of the resources, and the ever-increasing marginal cost of adding conventional resources into the company portfolio. The optimal extraction path of oil from the conventional and unconventional reservoirs is assessed, and the long-term economic consequence of keeping the unconventional resource in the ground for different oil-price scenarios is predicted. The model reveals the appropriate composition of a portfolio of conventional and unconventional resources. In the case of a high-price scenario, the optimal efficient extraction path is the pursuit of additional conventional resources before using unconventionals to meet the demand. For the reference-price scenario, the decline of the conventional reserves should be substituted with unconventionals from the beginning. The profitability of the enhanced oil recovery (EOR) applications in unconventional reservoirs and when they should be implemented are also determined. Contrary to common expectation, it is shown that the EOR technology is more justifiable in the case of a lower price forecast.

World production of conventional petroleum liquids to 2030: A comparative overview

ABSTRACT This paper compares estimates of reserves, resources and future production scenarios of conventional petroleum liquids for five peaked countries and the World as determined by various analytical techniques. It starts by illustrating Hubbert’s Model using historical production from offshore Norway and the United Kingdom (UK), and onshore Oman, Syria and Yemen, to estimate the resource, peak rate and year. For all five countries the estimated resources were found to significantly differ from known reserves (cumulative production plus proved reserves) and ultimate recoverable resources estimated by geologic studies; accordingly the model’s estimate is here referred to as the producing resource. Importantly, the producing resource – not the known reserves or ultimate recoverable resources – represents the quantity that most closely predicted the peak (rate and year) and early decline for these countries. The model’s production trajectory became accurate after the producing resource was between 10–30% depleted for four countries; the exception was for the UK at 44% depletion and due to non-geological circumstances. In the five countries, the peak occurred when the producing resource was approximately 50% depleted, and within a production plateau – here defined as exceeding 91% of the peak rate. The Hubbert Model cannot be applied to all basins and/or countries. Its World predictions are controversial and therefore presented as a Production Base Case and compared to those from other studies. The Base Case for conventional petroleum liquids predicted: (1) average producing resource of c. 2,860 billion barrels (Gb), (2) peak rate of c. 85.7 Mb/d (31.3 Gb/year), and (3) peak year in ca. 2016. The data used for this analysis is oil production as reported by BP (2008) from 1991 to 2007, consisting mostly of crude oil, lease condensates and natural gas liquids. The producing resource is just 3% greater than the 95%-confidence estimate for ultimate recoverable resources of 2,770 Gb effective in 2025 by the United States Geological Survey (with 152 Gb added for Canadian oil sands, BP, 2008). It is 351 Gb greater than the end-2007 known reserves of 2,509 Gb, consisting of 1,119 Gb produced, 1,238 Gb proved, and 152 Gb in Canadian oil sands (BP, 2008). The unproven resource of 351 Gb is achievable if the 20 Gb/year rate of new liquids reserves (undiscovered and reserves growth), added in 2005, is maintained on average between 2008–2025. The convergence of these three independent techniques on a resource of c. 2,860 Gb makes no assumption about the price of oil. The predicted peak rate (85.7 Mb/d in 2016) is 4.2 Mb/d greater than the 2007 average oil production of 81.5 Mb/d (BP, 2008). It compares closely to the peak rate of 86.2 Mb/d in 2012 obtained by balancing new megaprojects (more than 40 Kb/d) coming onstream in 2005–2014, against existing 2004 production declined at 4.5%/y. The Base Case predicts that production in 2030 will be 78.0 Mb/d, as consistent with the high-price scenario for conventional petroleum liquids production by the Energy Information Agency (2008): price of oil to increase to $186/barrel by 2030 but production to fall to 80.3 Mb/d in 2030 from 81.8 Mb/d in 2004.

Implications of high energy prices for energy system and emissions—The response from an energy model for Germany

Against the background of strongly increasing prices for primary energy carriers we examine how trends towards high energy prices could affect the development of the German energy system, the corresponding carbon dioxide emissions as well as costs. With the IKARUS bottom-up time-step model we look at a scenario with steadily increasing prices and a price shock scenario, both compared to a moderate price scenario. The results show that high prices lead to a significant reduction of the total primary energy supply and also structural changes of primary energy supply with less oil and natural gas and a noticeable increase of renewables. The corresponding cumulated CO 2 emission reduction for the period 2005–2030 is in the range of 830–1310 Mt or 4.1–6.4% as compared to the reference scenario. In the high price scenario there is a continuous additional decrease of energy demand and emissions while in the price shock scenario we find a temporary minimum around 2015 and subsequently a remarkable relaxation towards the reference scenario. Due to technical measures in the model the extra system costs caused by higher prices are reduced by 65–75 billion € 2000 for the period 2005–2030.

Modeling the Nitrogen and Phosphorus Inputs and Outputs of Financially Optimal Irish Beef Production Systems

Challenges currently faced by beef producers in Ireland include reducing their adverse environmental impact and maintaining farm economic margins. Fertilizers are essential for productive farming but they can be harmful to the environment when inappropriately or excessively applied to crop and pasture land. A linear programming model was used to identify financially optimal strategies for calf-to-stocker and calf-to-finish beef cattle production in high- and low-price market scenarios. The high-price scenario resulted in an increase in gross margin of $1,700 and $13,000 on a 40-ha farm for the stocker and finisher options, respectively. The impacts of these systems on environmental indicators were investigated through farm simulation. In general, the high-price scenarios were more intensive and had greater environmental impacts when compared to the low-price scenarios. Nitrogen leaching losses were quantitatively the most important environmental indicator on well-drained soils with a maximum annual loss of 72 kg N/ha. Volatilization and denitrification losses of nitrogen (N) were also relatively high where more intensive production was practiced with annual losses of 48 and 23 kg N/ha, respectively, in the most intensive scenario identified. Predicted phosphorus losses were small although annual accumulations in the soil of up to 7.5 kg P/ha may lead to greater losses in the future. On poorly drained soils, volatilization losses were greatest with leaching losses in this case the lowest of the loss pathways investigated. Further reduction in inorganic nitrogen application has the potential to reduce N losses, but predicted concomitant reductions in farm gross margins were also considerable.

Financial viability of reforesting reclaimed surface mined lands, the burden of site conversion costs, and carbon payments as reforestation incentives

US Federal law mandates that mined land be returned by mine operators to a condition capable of supporting its pre-mining use or a higher use. Previously forested lands have commonly been reclaimed to hayland/pasture or wildlife habitat, and most of these lands have been abandoned from management and rendered non-productive. This situation has left landowners in the position of converting these reclaimed mined lands to forests at a later date, if they choose to make them economically productive. Such land-use conversion, however, comes with a substantial up-front cost to the landowner, which makes the financial viability of such a conversion questionable. We examine the financial viability of reforestation of these previously reclaimed mine lands by calculating land expectation value (LEV) under a range of conditions that include forest type, site quality, and reforestation intensity. We find that conversion to white pine is viable on higher quality sites under low to moderate interest rates with low or high timber prices, but conversion to mixed hardwoods is only profitable under the high price scenario with low interest rates, and only on higher quality sites. We also consider the implications of a shift in reforestation burden from the landowner to the mine operator, and results suggest that including costs of reforestation as part of the mining operation creates a financially viable forest enterprise for landowners under all scenarios for both white pine and mixed hardwoods. Two forms of carbon payments that could encourage reforestation of previously reclaimed mined lands also are examined: an annual payment based upon the total accumulated carbon found on-site in a given year, and an annual payment based on only the increment of carbon storage each year. Our carbon payment results indicate that annual values of up to $5.17 per ton of carbon stored in hardwoods and $9.39 per ton of carbon stored in pines would be required to make reforestation profitable under the poorest conditions (high interest rates, low prices, and poor quality site) when the payment is based on accumulated on-site carbon, although lower values are required under more favorable scenarios. Payments that are based upon the annual increment of carbon must fall in the range of $8.66–$71.88 per ton of carbon stored in hardwoods and $0–$83.29 per ton of carbon stored in pines to make reforestation financially viable.

Scrapping Small Lots in a Low-Yield and High-Price Scenario

Some wafers in a lot may become spoiled after they are processed at a workstation; such a lot is called a small lot. In a low yield and high price scenario, scrapping small lots may increase revenue and profit; yet, this notion has seldom been examined. This study presents a model for formulating the decision-making problem of scrapping small lots. A genetic algorithm is used to solve the problem when the solution space is large. An exhaustive search method is used when the solution space is small. Some numerical examples are used to evaluate the outcome of scrapping small lots. The profit obtained by the proposed scrapping method may be up to 23% higher than that obtained without scrapping.

Combining alternative and conventional systems for environmental gains

AbstractTwo conventional cropping systems (winter wheat/dry peas and winter wheat/spring barley/dry peas) in the dryland grain region of southeastern Washington were compared with several alternative systems regarding profitability and environmental impacts. Two of the alternative systems use green manure crops and have low fertilizer and pesticide requirements. The remaining two are otherwise conventional rotations modified to include soil-building crops, bluegrass seed and rapeseed.Estimates of annual off-site erosion damage ranged from $6.56 to $20.50 per rotational acre, while on-site damage estimates ranged from $0.50 to $1.55 per rotational acre. Estimated leaching losses of pesticides to a water table 3.6 feet deep were negligible, but significant leaching losses of nitrate-N were predicted to occur from fall-applied inorganic fertilizer.Including bluegrass in a conventional grain rotation increased estimated net returns over variable costs by 16% and decreased soil loss by 33% compared with the most profitable conventional rotation. The next most profitable alternative system, rapeseed plus a conventional grain rotation, had slightly higher net returns over variable costs than the second most profitable conventional rotation, with slightly less soil loss. When fixed costs of machinery depreciation and land are included, the alternative systems fared relatively better. An experimental wheat/pea/medic system had higher projected net returns over total costs than the most profitable conventional rotation, while averaging just one-third as much soil loss per year. A wheat/barley/sweetclover green manure rotation was similar in profitability to the less profitable conventional rotation, but had only two-thirds as much soil loss.We constructed a mixed-integer linear programming model to determine the profitmaximizing combination of conventional and alternative rotations under 1990 farm bill provisions. Planting all or nearly all land to the bluegrass plus conventional grain rotation maximized returns over total costs for high, medium, and low program crop price scenarios. Farmers maximized profit by participating in both the wheat and barley programs under the low price scenario, only in the wheat program with moderate prices, and in neither the wheat nor the barley program under the high price scenario.

Predicting Daily Feed Costs for Dairy Management Models

Two constant nutrient value methods of predicting daily ration costs for management models were evaluated: constant dollars per megacalorie of NEL (.050, .061, .072, and .095) and constant dollars per kilogram of TDN and CP (.132 and .265, respectively). The methods were compared with ration costs calculated by linear programming using high, average, and low corn price scenarios. Constant nutrient value methods were inaccurate predictors of ration costs, and their margin of error generally increased as milk yield and price increased. Deviations from ration costs calculated by linear programming were lowest for the low corn price; high dollars per megacalorie of NEL (.072, .095) overestimated ration costs by $.014 to $1.017/d per cow, and low dollars per megacalorie of NEL (.050, .061) underestimated ration costs by $.024 to $1.014/d per cow. Constant value per kilogram of TDN and CP overestimated ration costs by $.275 to $.579/d per cow. At the average price scenario, $.095/Mcal of NEL and constant value per kilogram of TDN and CP overestimated ration costs by $.032 to $.456/d per cow, and lower dollars per megacalorie of NEL (.050, .061, .072) underestimated ration costs by $.059 to $1.846/d per cow. At the high price scenario, both constant nutrient cost methods and all values underestimated ration costs by $.011 to $2.940/d per cow. Regression analysis of daily ration costs per kilogram of milk and per kilogram of DM indicated that estimation inaccuracies resulted from a failure of constant nutrient cost methods to account for a constant proportion of ration costs and increases in aggregate costs per unit of nutrient as milk yield increased. Alternative methods are suggested.

World Energy Outlook through 1995

A worldwide glut of petroleum will continue to put downward pressure on oil prices in the years ahead. Though the extent of price decline is difficult to predict, the author projects three separate scenarios based on market conditions prevailing in July 1985. The author thinks OPEC is likely to change its past strategy by emphasizing market share rather than price stability. In direct contrast to its current policy, the organization may announce a production floor rather than a ceiling and thus relegate the task of maintaining the price to non -OPEC producers. The Most-Likely Scenario assumes the price for OPEC's benchmark crude oil will decline from $28 a barrel in 1985 to $23 by 1987. It will remain there until 1990 and then increase only at the rate of inflation to $30.78 (current dollars) a barrel in 1995. This scenario assumes OPEC will refuse to lower its production quota from its current level of 16 million barrels a day. Under the Low-Price Scenario, Arab Light declines to $15 a barrel by 1987, gradually climbs to $20 a barrel by 1990, and $26 a barrel by 1995. This projection assumes a further deterioration of discipline within OPEC, resulting possibly in a loss of membership. The High-Price Scenario foresees Arab Light declining to $26 a barrel by 1987, remaining there until 1990, and then increasing by the rate of inflation to $36.47 by 1995. An environment of simultaneous rapid economic expansion and spiraling inflation would make this scenario probable.