High Level Of Uncertainty Research Articles

The Nonlinear Nexus of Climate Policy Uncertainty and Renewable Energy Consumption in the United States of America: A Markov-Switching Approach

We employ a Markov-Switching regression model using monthly US data from April 1987 to August 2022 to investigate the effect of climate policy uncertainty (CPU) on renewable energy consumption (REC). The main findings suggest the presence of a nonlinear relationship between CPU and REC. The baseline analysis using the CPU index reveals an adverse effect in regimes characterized by high levels of uncertainty. However, the effect is not statistically significant in a low uncertainty regime. To account for potential variations in the results, we perform a robustness analysis that considers the effect of CPU on REC, which may fluctuate based on the authorities' contextual perspectives (i.e., being in favor or against climate policy) and also the effect of CPU on REC by household. In addition, we incorporate a robustness check by utilizing the environmental policy uncertainty index developed by Noailly et al. (2022). The robustness test results confirm the results obtained from the baseline estimation.

Optimal Scheduling of Renewable Sources Based Micro Grid With PV and Battery Storage Using Crayfish Optimization Algorithm

ABSTRACTEnvironmental concerns and energy security are pressing issues of the 21st century, with a heavy reliance on fossil fuels causing significant environmental pollution and resource depletion. To mitigate these problems, it is crucial to explore and implement alternative clean energy sources. This manuscript proposes a novel crayfish optimization algorithm (COA) for optimal scheduling in a hybrid power system that incorporates various renewable energy sources, like battery energy storage systems (BESS), fuel cells (FC), wind turbines (WT), micro turbines (MT) and photovoltaic (PV) panels. The importance of the work lies in its ability to optimize the entire operating costs of a grid‐connected microgrid while improving the accuracy and efficiency of energy management. The COA method addresses economic dispatch problems and manages energy within the grid‐connected microgrid, accounting for high levels of uncertainty. The proposed approach, tested using MATLAB Simulink, achieved a cost value of 252, outperforming existing methods such as GTO, PSO, SSA, and ALO. This illustrates the potential of the proposed technique to provide more cost‐effective and efficient energy management solutions in hybrid power systems.

Запровадження проєктного підходу як інструменту забезпечення гнучкості та адаптивності підприємств у турбулентному середовищі

Introducing a project approach as a tool for ensuring the flexibility and adaptability of enterprises in a turbulent market environment is necessary for increasing business sustainability. The project approach allows enterprises to adapt to changes faster, reduce risks, and improve management efficiency. The modern market environment is characterized by high levels of uncertainty and turbulent change, necessitating the search for new business management approaches. Traditional management methods, focused on stability, often need to provide the flexibility and adaptability required for enterprises to survive in turbulent conditions. This article substantiates the role of the project-based approach as an effective tool for enhancing organizations’ ability to respond quickly to changes in the external environment, reduce risks, and improve management efficiency. The analysis demonstrates that the project-based approach promotes organizational flexibility, fosters innovation, and optimizes resource allocation — critical factors for the successful operation of enterprises in unstable market conditions. However, implementing this approach is accompanied by challenges, such as resistance to change and difficulties in project coordination. The article also explores various project management models, including hybrid approaches that combine the strengths of traditional and agile methodologies. The conclusions emphasize the need for further research focused on integrating the project-based approach with other management tools and studying the impact of corporate culture on the success of its implementation. The application of various models within the project approach framework allows organizations to respond more effectively to the challenges of the turbulent market, combining stability and predictability with the necessary flexibility and adaptability. Keywords: project, project-based approach, entrepreneurship, adaptability, flexibility, hybrid project models, turbulent environment.

The Protection of Intra-EU Investments: Putting the EU’s Rule of Law to the Test

With the 2018 Achmea ruling, the European Court of Justice declared investment arbitration in the intra-EU setting to be inadmissible. As a result, the Member States have cancelled more than 190 bilateral investment protection treaties between themselves. Critics fear a high level of legal uncertainty for intra-EU investments. The EU Commission, on the other hand, believes that the existing law of the internal market provides ‘adequate and effective protection’ for such investments without further ado. Both sides invoke the rule of law. After an overview of the developments, individual elements of the protection of investments within the EU, namely the rights of investors, the balance between them and public interests, the legal means available and the question of compensation, are analysed comparatively. In the end, it emerges that both positions can lay claim to different elements of the rule of law. The rule of law does not require maintaining investment protection with bilateral treaties and investor- state arbitration. However, it is questionable whether the existing law in the internal market does adequately protect investments in the European Union. With the abolition of traditional international investment protection, the European Union faces major challenges with regard to the further improvement of the rule of law, the importance of which goes far beyond the issue of investment protection.

METHODOLOGY FOR DEVELOPING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR SECURITY-ORIENTED MANAGEMENT OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS BASED ON FUZZY LOGIC

In today's environment, socio-economic systems face increasingly complex challenges associated with high levels of uncertainty, risks, and rapid changes in the external environment. This necessitates the development of effective management methods that can ensure the reliability and flexibility of decision-making. The research is aimed at creating a methodology for the development and application of information technology for security-oriented management based on the principles of fuzzy logic. Fuzzy logic, based on the theory of fuzzy sets developed by Lotfi Zadeh, is a powerful tool for working with incomplete and fuzzy data, allowing to model complex systems and processes where traditional approaches may be ineffective. The paper discusses the peculiarities of using fuzzy logic to create models that take into account possible risks and facilitate informed decision-making even with limited information. The proposed methodology allows to integrate various data sources, process them in real time and provide recommendations for risk management and security of socio-economic systems. The study also describes the structure of the technology, which includes the stages of data collection, fuzzification, fuzzy inference, defuzzification, and decision support. Systems based on fuzzy logic demonstrate high adaptability, resilience to change, and the ability to operate in the face of unpredictable changes. The results of the study confirm that the proposed information technology can be applied in various industries, such as transportation, healthcare, and industry, to improve the safety and efficiency of management decisions. The use of the proposed methodology helps to reduce risks, improve the quality of management and adaptability to changes in external conditions, which are key requirements in modern management.

The role of traditional ecological knowledge, given the transformation of pastoralism in Central and Eastern Mongolia.

Mongolian nomadic herders traditionally pass on ecological knowledge intergenerationally, mainly within families. However, little is known about how current societal transformation processes may impact the application and transfer of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) amongst herders. Combining quantitative household survey data with qualitative interviews, we show that TEK is still widely applied amongst herders. Our data show that households living under conditions of greater societal transformation apply TEK more often in order to adapt to the situation than households under lower transformation pressure. High transformation pressure goes along with high human population and livestock density and thus competition for good pastureland. In addition, our results show that intragenerational knowledge transfer between families is gaining more importance nowadays. For Mongolia, we recommend facilitating access to and strengthening the exchange of TEK to prepare herders for the future due to the high level of uncertainty accompanying societal transformations.

Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Performance in Pakistan

The aim of this study is to examine the impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on firm performance in Pakistan. Net profit margin (NPM) and ROE are taken as proxies for firm performance. Purposive sampling is used to collect quarterly data of 236 non-financial firms listed on Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) from Thomson Reuters Eikon database, as well as quarterly data on EPU and other economic indicators from World Bank database, to test the effect of EPU on firm performance in Pakistan. Using the random effects regression, we observe that economic policy uncertainty has a significant negative impact on the performance of firms in Pakistan. The results are robust in both the models with NPM and ROE as the proxies for firm performance. The findings are crucial for the firms as they need to find ways to deal with high levels of economic policy uncertainty, as well as for the policy makers that they can try to reduce the uncertainty to give a more stable economic environment to the firms operating in Pakistan.

Transformation of the AECO industry through the metaverse: potentials and challenges

The integration of the metaverse into the real estate and construction industry reveals various potentials, but also challenges. The increasing digitization in the architecture, engineering, construction, and operation (AECO) sector requires a critical examination of aspects such as the metaverse. This paper is dedicated to examining the impact of the metaverse on the real estate and construction industry. The following specialist article is primarily aimed at the target group of the AECO sector, with the aim of gaining an initial overview of the opinions within this sector. The methodology used includes an in-depth literature review and a representative survey. Respondents from different age groups and areas of activity within the construction and real estate industry took part in this survey. The research questions of this paper are aimed at identifying the range of metaverse applications in the AECO industry, assessing their potential impact on business potential and challenges. The aim is to develop initial definitions and use cases and to create an overview of opinions in the industry. In this context, potential opportunities and risks will be examined to derive recommendations for an effective integration of the metaverse into the AECO industry. The results of this paper conducted indicate that there is still considerable uncertainty in the construction and real estate industry. It appears that the term “metaverse” and the associated potential through targeted use cases are not yet widespread in this industry. The survey participants recognize a potential for 3D visualizations in the metaverse that extends over the entire life cycle of buildings. An exemplary scenario for this is the use of 3D visualizations both during the planning phase and in marketing. The challenges identified shed light on uncertainties relating to data protection, privacy, and the influence of the internet. The results of the study reveal a high level of uncertainty and ignorance within the industry when it comes to understanding the metaverse. Based on the results, further studies are needed to establish the understanding and real potential of the metaverse in the industry. Conducting workshops specifically aimed at the AECO sector can help to deepen understanding of the potential of possible use cases.

The Challenge-Hindrance-Threat Appraisal Framework and the Differential Effects on Employees' Work Well-Being and Behaviors.

Considering the current economic and employment landscape, marked by high levels of uncertainty and challenges, this study introduces the challenge-hindrance-threat appraisal (CHTA) framework to examine workplace stress, with a particular focus on the often-overlooked role of threat appraisal. Across three studies using independent samples and multi-wave survey data, our research provides evidence supporting the CHTA framework and reveals the differential effects of three types of stress appraisals on the work-related well-being and behaviors of individuals. Specifically, Study 1 establishes the three-factor structure of CHTA, confirming its robust psychometric properties in each appraisal dimension. Study 2 demonstrates that threat appraisals offer unique insights into stress-related outcomes, beyond challenge and hindrance appraisals. Study 3 reveals that challenge appraisals foster learning behavior through enhancing work engagement and reduce turnover intentions through alleviating emotional exhaustion. Conversely, threat appraisals escalate turnover intentions through intensifying emotional exhaustion. Interestingly, hindrance appraisals exhibit no significant effect on either work engagement or emotional exhaustion, precluding any indirect influence on learning behavior or turnover intentions. In conclusion, this research underscores the importance of differentiating between the three types of cognitive appraisals of stress-namely, challenge, hindrance, and threat appraisals-in stress management in order to enhance employee well-being and organizational effectiveness.

Dyadic coping experiences of parents of children with vascular anomalies.

Vascular anomalies (VAs) are a spectrum of rare pediatric disorders that require coordinated care from multiple subspecialists. Parents often struggle to coordinate care for their child's complex rare disorder. Even when they do access expert care, parents of children with VAs report high levels of stress and uncertainty. While previous research has explored parents' experiences navigating care for VAs, we know very little about how parents cope with stress together. Given the effect that dyadic coping can have on individual, couple, family, and child outcomes, we aimed to gain a better understanding of dyadic coping in the context of VAs. We collected data using semi-structured interviews with 27 parents (13 dyads and one individual parent). Data were analyzed using dyadic thematic analysis. Parents experienced stress related to medical, personal, logistical, and financial aspects of their child's healthcare. They relied on eight coping strategies: active coping, seeking emotional support, seeking informational support, cognitive avoidance, distraction, cognitive reframing, acceptance, and internalization. When analyzed together, we found evidence of five dyadic coping dynamics: collaborative, supportive, delegated, separate, and negative. Dyadic coping is complex and multilayered for parents of children with VAs. While the child's diagnosis is considered a shared stressor, both parents may not share preferred coping strategies. Parents of the same child may also be coping with different medical, relational/social, personal, or logistical stressors altogether. Psychosocial interventions designed to facilitate parental coping should address these complex coping dynamics.

ESG practices disclosure and initial performance of Malaysian IPOS

Companies’ decision to go public is risky because of the high uncertainty level from the companies’ unknown history prior to their listing. Recent studies in the Malaysian market reported the declining trend of companies’ initial performance, relating it to investors’ current demand for higher information transparency that can reflect companies’ sustainable evolution as a means to attract their demand in subscribing newly issued shares. Thus, this study aims to investigate the impact of disclosing ESG practices on companies’ initial performance. Using a linear regression with maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, this study examines 171 initial public offerings (IPOs) issued in the Malaysian market from 2015 to 2023. By using two ways of measuring companies’ initial performance (offer-to-open and offer-to-close), the findings show that higher information disclosure on ESG practices will only be reflective and positively affect companies’ performance by the end of the day. Further examination of individual ESG pillars indicates that environmental disclosures negatively influence companies’ initial performance, while social and governance disclosures positively influence companies’ initial performance. A large investment in maintaining a high level of environmental practice can be costly, negatively influencing companies’ performances. Higher social and governance disclosure attracts socially conscious investors and reflects good internal governance, increasing demand for the companies’ shares during the IPO and positively influencing companies’ performances. This study contributes to the growing literature concerning ESG and post-IPO performances specific to the Malaysian market and proposes recommendations on the importance of disclosing ESG practices prior to their IPO. AcknowledgmentsThe authors would like to acknowledge that this article is part of a research project funded by Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) for the MyRA Grant Scheme, file no: 600-RMC 5/3/GPM (118/2022).

Toward Smart Ultrasound Image Augmentation to Advance Tumor Treatment Monitoring: Exploring the Potential of Diffusion Generative Model

Abstract Medical imaging is a crucial tool in clinics to monitor tumor treatment progress. In practice, many imaging tools (such as magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and computed tomography (CT) scans) are in general costly and may also expose patients to radiation, leading to potential side effects. Recent studies have demonstrated that ultrasound imaging, which is safe, low-cost, and easy to access, can monitor the drug delivery progress in solid tumors. However, the noisy nature of ultrasound images and the high-level uncertainty of cancer disease progression are still challenging in ultrasound-based tumor treatment monitoring. To overcome these barriers, this work presents a comparative study to explore the potential advantages of the emerging diffusion generative models against the commonly applied state-of-the-art generative models. Namely, the denoising diffusion models (DDMs), against the generative adversarial networks (GAN), and variational auto-encoders (VAE), are used for analyzing the ultrasound images through image augmentation. These models are evaluated based on their capacity to augment ultrasound images for exploring the potential variations of tumor treatment monitoring. The results across different cases indicate that the denoising diffusion implicit models (DDIM)/kernel inception distance (KID)-inception score (IS) model leveraged in this work outperforms the other models in the study in terms of similarity, diversity, and predictive accuracy. Therefore, further investigation of such diffusion generative models could be considered as they can potentially serve as a great predictive tool for ultrasound image-enabled tumor treatment monitoring in the future.

Successful and sustained implementation of a behaviour-change informed strategy for emergency nurses: a multicentre implementation evaluation

BackgroundImplementing evidence that changes practice in emergency departments (EDs) is notoriously difficult due to well-established barriers including high levels of uncertainty arising from undifferentiated nature of ED patients, resource shortages, workload unpredictability, high staff turnover, and a constantly changing environment. We developed and implemented a behaviour-change informed strategy to mitigate these barriers for a clinical trial to implement the evidence-based emergency nursing framework HIRAID® (History including Infection risk, Red flags, Assessment, Interventions, Diagnostics, communication, and reassessment) to reduce clinical variation, and increase safety and quality of emergency nursing care.AimTo evaluate the behaviour-change-informed HIRAID® implementation strategy on reach, effectiveness, adoption, quality (dose, fidelity) and maintenance (sustainability).MethodsAn effectiveness-implementation hybrid design including a step–wedge cluster randomised control trial (SW-cRCT) was used to implement HIRAID® with 1300 + emergency nurses across 29 Australian rural, regional, and metropolitan EDs. Evaluation of our behaviour-change informed strategy was informed by the RE-AIM Scoring Instrument and measured using data from (i) a post HIRAID® implementation emergency nurse survey, (ii) HIRAID® Instructor surveys, and (iii) twelve-week and 6-month documentation audits. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics to determine the level of each component of RE-AIM achieved. Qualitative data were analysed using content analysis and used to understand the ‘how’ and ‘why’ of quantitative results.ResultsHIRAID® was implemented in all 29 EDs, with 145 nurses undertaking instructor training and 1123 (82%) completing all four components of provider training at 12 weeks post-implementation. Modifications to the behaviour-change informed strategy were minimal. The strategy was largely used as intended with 100% dose and very high fidelity. We achieved extremely high individual sustainability (95% use of HIRAID® documentation templates) at 6 months and 100% setting sustainability at 3 years.ConclusionThe behaviour-change informed strategy for the emergency nursing framework HIRAID® in rural, regional, and metropolitan Australia was highly successful with extremely high reach and adoption, dose, fidelity, individual and setting sustainability across substantially variable clinical contexts.Trial registrationANZCTR, ACTRN12621001456842. Registered 25 October 2021.

Preferential trade agreements as insurance

We investigate preferential trade agreement (PTA) formation when risk averse countries face demand uncertainty and, hence, have an insurance motive for pursuing trade integration. In this environment, when deciding which type of PTA − if any − they wish to form, countries seek to maximise their net welfare; that is, their expected utility less a risk premium. The desire for insurance influences, not just whether a particular PTA forms, but also the preferred depth of integration. We analyze the insurance implications of free trade agreements (FTAs), customs unions (CUs), and countries choosing to stand alone. We further distinguish between shallow CUs and deep CUs; in the former, members maximise the sum of their individual net welfares, while in the latter they maximise the net value of the sum of their individual expected welfares. We show that differences in country risk attitudes and the levels of risk they face, as well as the degree to which these risks are correlated with each other, each, and together, influence the formation and design of TAs. When countries’ demands are uncorrelated, they form a deep CU if their levels of risk aversion are sufficiently different. If, however, their risk attitudes are similar, countries opt for shallower trade integration − either a shallow CU or a FTA − if they face low levels of uncertainty, and choose to stand alone if one country faces a sufficiently high level of uncertainty. When countries’ demands are correlated, they tend to form a deep CU if their demands are strongly negatively correlated, a FTA if their demands are strongly positively correlated and a shallow CU when their demands are weakly correlated. Intuitively, differences in country risk attitudes (i.e., their degree of risk aversion) act as an additional source of comparative advantage. Deeper integration − particularly via a CU − permits less risk averse members to essentially export their relative partiality for risk to more risk averse partners, thereby effectively providing the latter with insurance.

Pliocene shorelines and the epeirogenic motion of continental margins: a target dataset for dynamic topography models

Abstract. Global mean sea level during the mid-Pliocene epoch (∼3 Ma), when CO2 and temperatures were above present levels, was notably higher than today due to reduced global ice sheet coverage. Nevertheless, the extent to which ice sheets responded to Pliocene warmth remains in question owing to high levels of uncertainty in proxy-based sea level reconstructions as well as solid Earth dynamic models that have been used to evaluate a limited number of data constraints. Here, we present a global dataset of 10 wave-cut scarps that formed by successive Pliocene sea level oscillations and which are observed today at elevations ranging from ∼6 to 109 m above sea level. The present-day elevations of these features have been identified using a combination of high-resolution digital elevation models and field mapping. Using the MATLAB interface TerraceM, we extrapolate the cliff and platform surfaces to determine the elevation of the scarp toe, which in most settings is buried under meters of talus. We correct the scarp-toe elevations for glacial isostatic adjustment and find that this process alone cannot explain observed differences in Pliocene paleo-shoreline elevations around the globe. We next determine the signal associated with mantle dynamic topography by back-advecting the present-day three-dimensional buoyancy structure of the mantle and calculating the difference in radial surface stresses over the last 3 Myr using the convection code ASPECT. We include a wide range of present-day mantle structures (buoyancy and viscosity) constrained by seismic tomography models, geodynamic observations, and rock mechanics laboratory experiments. Finally, we identify preferred dynamic topography change predictions based on their agreement with scarp elevations and use our most confident result to estimate a Pliocene global mean sea level based on one scarp from De Hoop, South Africa. This inference (11.6 ± 5.2 m) is a downward revision and may imply that ice sheets were relatively resistant to warm Pliocene climate conditions. We also conclude, however, that more targeted model development is needed to more reliably infer mid-Pliocene global mean sea level based on all scarps mapped in this study.

Organizational Innovativeness: The Role of Innovation Adoption Capability

Organizations develop capabilities to manage activities and generate value for their customers. This study focuses on the adoption capability of innovation adopting organizations. Adoption capability is a complex, and multidimensional concept that includes a high level of uncertainty, making it difficult to measure. This study attempts to find a systematic methodology to measure the innovation adoption capability of firms, through which management can monitor and evaluate a firm’s strengths and weaknesses in each capability dimension compared with competitors, predict their future needs for improvements, and plan necessary activities to stay competitive in the market. The proposed model considers multiple quantitative and qualitative adoption capability dimensions simultaneously and utilizes a relatively comprehensive set of adoption capability elements by developing 35 items and classifying them into six dimensions. This study uses the fuzzy weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS) method as a multi-attribute decision-making (MADM) approach. The model is applied to three competing firms in the consumer electronics sector, and the results are discussed.

Are Thai mangrove managers aware of the potential threat posed by sea level rise?

Rapid sea level rise (SLR) represents a novel threat to mangroves, which could adapt through vertical accretion or landward expansion. Depending on tidal conditions and stressors, managers will likely have to intervene to enhance the adaptive capacity of mangroves. However, managers must be aware of, understand, and anticipate the risks of SLR-induced habitat degradation to plan adaptive measures, which must be supported by administrative resources, political will, and stakeholder engagement. Here, we studied how cognitive, experiential, and organizational factors influence risk awareness and adaptive management capacity of communal and state-based managers. In telephone-based interviews, the risk perception of 60 community-based and 23 governmental mangrove managers in Thailand was assessed to gain insights into their awareness and understanding of SLR risks, current management practices and adaptive measures, and the extent of their collaboration and stakeholder engagement. The findings show that most managers acknowledge the presence of SLR (72%) but perceived the adaptive capacity of mangroves as sufficiently high and the risk of SLR-induced degradation as minimal (63%), regardless of their affiliation. However, few respondents (18%) were aware that SLR would prolong hydroperiods and increase waterlogging stress of mangrove trees. The survey also revealed organization-specific biases. State officials cited a high level of uncertainty due to limited research and monitoring preventing them from planning adaptive measures. Community managers relied on their past experiences of mangrove recovery following disturbances, which might be unsuitable for informing management decisions in response to the novel threat of SLR. These findings indicate a lack of knowledge and guidelines for understanding and addressing SLR impacts. Additionally, there was an observed optimism bias among community managers, where past successful recoveries led to an overestimation of mangroves' adaptive capacity. Knowledge transfer and awareness-raising among mangrove resource stakeholders are critical for developing adaptation measures.

Business model innovations amidst adverse economic conditions: the role of CEO values

Purpose The current business environment is characterized by high levels of uncertainty that affect the global economic system and have the greatest impact on small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). With an elevated degree of perceived uncertainty, Chief executive officers' (CEOs) of SMEs find themselves in a situation where the old approaches to decision-making are irrelevant and the time to create new ones is limited. The purpose of this study is to examine whether appealing to personal values helps CEOs cope with a high level of perceived uncertainty and make decisions about the further development of the firm by undertaking business model innovations (BMI). Design/methodology/approach This study follows a multiple case study research design drawing on data collected from 10 Russian SMEs. Findings The authors show that CEOs’ communion values lead to innovations in the revenue model and value architecture dimensions of the business model. CEOs who are inclined to agentic values introduce innovations in the revenue model and value offering dimensions. Those executives who balance between the two types of values tend to also balance between different types of innovations in the elements of the business model. Originality/value The results indicate that personal values of CEOs play an important role in managerial processes and the strategic choice of a BMI type. Moreover, personal temporal focus orientation serves as a translation mechanism in the relationship between CEO values and BMI in SME settings.

Reshoring manufacturing: the influence of industry 4.0, Covid-19, and made-in effects

AbstractEmpirical investigations of how the reshoring of manufacturing is affected by Industry 4.0 technologies, supply chain disruptions, and made-in effects are rare in the extant academic literature. This paper contains an empirical analysis of how these variables affect reshoring and reshoring intentions. Results from a 2022 questionnaire survey including 152 offshoring manufacturing firms show that reshoring and reshoring intentions are associated positively with investments in automation in manufacturing, and with employee made-in. Results also showed that while Covid-19 associated disruptions increased firms’ reshoring intentions equally across firm sizes, smaller and larger firms reacted quite differently towards more well-known disruption types: larger firms decreasing reshoring intentions with higher levels of uncertainty and smaller firms increasing reshoring intentions with higher levels of uncertainty. These results point to the importance of creating consciousness about the dynamics of production localization and how firm-level and situation-specific contingencies may interfere with Industry 4.0 technology-, supply chain disruption-, and made-in effects on strategic reshoring decisions.

Assessing the groundwater quality of El Fahs aquifer (NE Tunisia) using multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical modeling

This study is the first attempt to characterize the quality status of El Fahs aquifer by combining graphical tools, multivariate statistical techniques and traditional geostatistical methods. Water samples are collected from thirty-six observation wells during April 2016 to characterize the physicochemical properties of the aquifer. Subsequently, these samples are partitioned into three hydrochemically distinct water classes (i.e., C1, C2, and C3) using the K-means clustering method. Principal Component Analysis is used to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset prior performing the clustering computations, resulting in clusters of higher quality than the non-reduced case in terms of Silhouette coefficient. Piper diagram is used to display the chemical composition of the samples, revealing the dominant role of Mg–Ca–Cl water type for all three classes, whereas Sodium and Sulfate were found to be the second most important cations and anions respectively. Indicator kriging (IK) is used to identify the probability of occurrence of the hydrochemical classes beyond the sampling locations. It is found that Class 1, associated with fresh groundwater component, is most probable to occur at the central part of the plain, mainly due to the presence of a dense hydrological network, whereas Classes 2 (agricultural activities) and 3 (dissolution of evaporate geological formations) are expected to occur at the southern and northern regions respectively. IK also identified the regions associated with high levels of uncertainty, mostly occurring in a large portion of the northern area due to the absence of available hydrochemical information. The results showed that integration of graphical methods, multivariate statistical techniques and geostatistical modeling, is an efficient approach for characterizing the hydrochemical status of the aquifer system, to spatially optimize the groundwater monitoring well networks and quantify the uncertainty levels of the water classes in a systematic way.