High-latitude Warming Research Articles

Decomposing the Drivers of Polar Amplification with a Single-Column Model

AbstractThe precise mechanisms driving Arctic amplification are still under debate. Previous attribution methods compute the vertically uniform temperature change required to balance the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance caused by each forcing and feedback, with any departures from vertically uniform warming collected into the lapse-rate feedback. We propose an alternative attribution method using a single-column model that accounts for the forcing dependence of high-latitude lapse-rate changes. We examine this method in an idealized general circulation model (GCM), finding that, even though the column-integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing and water vapor feedback are stronger in the tropics, they contribute to polar-amplified surface warming as they produce bottom-heavy warming in high latitudes. A separation of atmospheric temperature changes into local and remote contributors shows that, in the absence of polar surface forcing (e.g., sea ice retreat), changes in energy transport are primarily responsible for the polar-amplified pattern of warming. The addition of surface forcing substantially increases polar surface warming and reduces the contribution of atmospheric dry static energy transport to the warming. This physically based attribution method can be applied to comprehensive GCMs to provide a clearer view of the mechanisms behind Arctic amplification.

Colloidal organic carbon and trace elements in peat porewaters across a permafrost gradient in Western Siberia

The majority of organic carbon (OC), nutrients, and dissolved trace elements in soil porewaters are present in the form of colloids which determine element transport, bioavailability, and overall impact on ecosystems. Climate warming and permafrost thaw in high latitudes will primarily affect the soil liquid phase thereby modifying delivery of colloids to the hydrological network and their role in C transport and emission. Here we studied colloids in peat porewaters across a natural gradient of sporadic, isolated, discontinuous and continuous permafrost zone in the Western Siberian Lowland (WSL), the largest peatland in the world. The depth of sampling and the microrelief (mounds and hollows) had a generally weak impact on the proportion of colloidal forms (3 kDa − 0.45 µm) of OC, major (Fe, Al, P, alkali and alkaline-earth metals) and trace elements (TE) including micronutrients (Zn, Mn, Ni, Co, Cu), toxicants (Sb, As, Cd, Pb) and geochemical tracers (trivalent and tetravalent cations). Considering all micro-landscapes together, there was no sizable change in the proportion of colloidal fraction of OC, Fe, Al, P, micronutrients and toxicants across the permafrost zones. The majority of colloidal forms of all elements of these groups were represented by a size fraction between 3 and 30 kDa and were essentially Fe-Al-organic compounds with an average Fe:Al:OC molar ratio of 1.9:1:308. Overall, the degree of impact from environmental factors on OC and metal distribution among various colloidal fractions can be classified as depth ≤ permafrost type < microlandscape. Applying a substitution “space for time scenario” for the climate warming and permafrost thaw in Western Siberia, we do not expect sizable changes in C and element colloidal status during active layer thickness increase and permafrost boundary shift northward. Future studies of colloids in peat ice (below the active layer) are needed to assess possible changes in delivery of C and metals from soil to rivers and onward into the Arctic Ocean under massive permafrost thawing in the WSL.

The middle to late Eocene greenhouse climate modelled using the CESM 1.0.5

Abstract. The early and late Eocene have both been the subject of many modelling studies, but few have focused on the middle Eocene. The latter still holds many challenges for climate modellers but is also key to understanding the events leading towards the conditions needed for Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene–Oligocene transition. Here, we present the results of CMIP5-like coupled climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) version 1. Using a new detailed 38 Ma geography reconstruction and higher model resolution compared to most previous modelling studies and sufficiently long equilibration times, these simulations will help to further understand the middle to late Eocene climate. At realistic levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, the model is able to show overall good agreement with proxy records and capture the important aspects of a warm greenhouse climate during the Eocene. With a quadrupling of pre-industrial concentrations of both CO2 and CH4 (i.e. 1120 ppm and ∼2700 ppb, respectively, or 4 × PIC; pre-industrial carbon), sea surface temperatures correspond well to the available late middle Eocene (42–38 Ma; ∼ Bartonian) proxies. Being generally cooler, the simulated climate under 2 × PIC forcing is a good analogue for that of the late Eocene (38–34 Ma; ∼ Priabonian). Terrestrial temperature proxies, although their geographical coverage is sparse, also indicate that the results presented here are in agreement with the available information. Our simulated middle to late Eocene climate has a reduced Equator-to-pole temperature gradient and a more symmetric meridional heat distribution compared to the pre-industrial reference. The collective effects of geography, vegetation, and ice account for a global average 5–7 ∘C difference between pre-industrial and 38 Ma Eocene boundary conditions, with important contributions from cloud and water vapour feedbacks. This helps to explain Eocene warmth in general, without the need for greenhouse gas levels much higher than indicated by proxy estimates (i.e. ∼500–1200 ppm CO2) or low-latitude regions becoming unreasonably warm. High-latitude warmth supports the idea of mostly ice-free polar regions, even at 2 × PIC, with Antarctica experiencing particularly warm summers. An overall wet climate is seen in the simulated Eocene climate, which has a strongly monsoonal character. Equilibrium climate sensitivity is reduced (0.62 ∘C W−1 m2; 3.21 ∘C warming between 38 Ma 2 × PIC and 4 × PIC) compared to that of the present-day climate (0.80 ∘C W−1 m2; 3.17 ∘C per CO2 doubling). While the actual warming is similar, we see mainly a higher radiative forcing from the second PIC doubling. A more detailed analysis of energy fluxes shows that the regional radiative balance is mainly responsible for sustaining a low meridional temperature gradient in the Eocene climate, as well as the polar amplification seen towards even warmer conditions. These model results may be useful to reconsider the drivers of Eocene warmth and the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) but can also be a base for more detailed comparisons to future proxy estimates.

Composition of Sedimentary Organic Matter across the Laptev Sea Shelf: Evidences from Rock-Eval Parameters and Molecular Indicators

Global warming in high latitudes causes destabilization of vulnerable permafrost deposits followed by massive thaw-release of organic carbon. Permafrost-derived carbon may be buried in the nearshore sediments, transported towards the deeper basins or degraded into the greenhouse gases, potentially initiating a positive feedback to climate change. In the present study, we aim to identify the sources, distribution and degradation state of organic matter (OM) stored in the surface sediments of the Laptev Sea (LS), which receives a large input of terrestrial carbon from both Lena River discharge and intense coastal erosion. We applied a suite of geochemical indicators including the Rock Eval parameters, traditionally used for the matured OM characterization, and terrestrial lipid biomarkers. In addition, we analyzed a comprehensive grain size data in order to assess hydrodynamic sedimentation regime across the LS shelf. Rock-Eval (RE) data characterize LS sedimentary OM with generally low hydrogen index (100–200 mg HC/g TOC) and oxygen index (200 and 300 CO2/g TOC) both increasing off to the continental slope. According to Tpeak values, there is a clear regional distinction between two groups (369–401 °C for the inner and mid shelf; 451–464 °C for the outer shelf). We suggest that permafrost-derived OM is traced across the shallow and mid depths with high Tpeak and slightly elevated HI values if compared to other Arctic continental margins. Molecular-based degradation indicators show a trend to more degraded terrestrial OC with increasing distance from the coast corroborating with RE results. However, we observed much less variation of the degradation markers down to the deeper sampling horizons, which supports the notion that the most active OM degradation in LS land-shelf system takes part during the cross-shelf transport, not while getting buried deeper.

Accelerated rate of vegetation green-up related to warming at northern high latitudes.

Mid- to high-latitude vegetation are experiencing changes in their seasonal cycles as a result of climate change. Although the rates of seasonal growth from winter dormancy to summer maturity have accelerated because of changes in environmental conditions, less attention has been paid to the rate of vegetation green-up (RVG) and its dynamics, which could advance vegetation maturity. We analyzed the long-term changes in RVG and the drivers at high northern latitudes for 35years (1982-2016) using satellite-retrieved leaf area index data based on partial correlation analyses and multivariable linear regression. The rates tended to increase significantly with time, particularly at high latitudes above 60°N in North America (1.8% mon-1 decade-1 , p<.01) and Eurasia (1.0% mon-1 decade-1 , p<.01). The increasing trend in North America was mostly because of increased heat accumulation in spring (1.2% mon-1 decade-1 ), that is, more rapid green-up owing to warming, with an increased carbon dioxide concentration (0.6 mon-1 decade-1 ). The trend in Eurasia, however, was induced by warming, increased carbon dioxide concentration, and stronger radiation, 1.0%, 0.7%, and 0.5% mon-1 decade-1 , respectively, but was partly counteracted by earlier pregreen-up dates of -1.2% mon-1 decade-1 , that is, earlier initiation of growth which counteracted green-up rate acceleration. The results suggested that warming was the predominant factor influencing the accelerated RVG at high latitudes; however, Eurasian vegetation exhibited different green-up dynamics, mitigating the influence of warming with the earlier pregreen-up. Our findings imply that high-latitude warming will drive vegetation seasonality toward rapid green-up and early maturity, leading to the reinforcement of climate-vegetation interactions; however, the consequences will be more distinct in North America owing to the absence of alleviation by earlier pregreen-up.

Polar amplification of Pliocene climate by elevated trace gas radiative forcing

Warm periods in Earth's history offer opportunities to understand the dynamics of the Earth system under conditions that are similar to those expected in the near future. The Middle Pliocene warm period (MPWP), from 3.3 to 3.0 My B.P, is the most recent time when atmospheric CO2 levels were as high as today. However, climate model simulations of the Pliocene underestimate high-latitude warming that has been reconstructed from fossil pollen samples and other geological archives. One possible reason for this is that enhanced non-CO2 trace gas radiative forcing during the Pliocene, including from methane (CH4), has not been included in modeling. We use a suite of terrestrial biogeochemistry models forced with MPWP climate model simulations from four different climate models to produce a comprehensive reconstruction of the MPWP CH4 cycle, including uncertainty. We simulate an atmospheric CH4 mixing ratio of 1,000 to 1,200 ppbv, which in combination with estimates of radiative forcing from N2O and O3, contributes a non-CO2 radiative forcing of 0.9 [Formula: see text] (range 0.6 to 1.1), which is 43% (range 36 to 56%) of the CO2 radiative forcing used in MPWP climate simulations. This additional forcing would cause a global surface temperature increase of 0.6 to 1.0 °C, with amplified changes at high latitudes, improving agreement with geological evidence of Middle Pliocene climate. We conclude that natural trace gas feedbacks are critical for interpreting climate warmth during the Pliocene and potentially many other warm phases of the Cenezoic. These results also imply that using Pliocene CO2 and temperature reconstructions alone may lead to overestimates of the fast or Charney climate sensitivity.

Sensitivity of mid-Pliocene climate to changes in orbital forcing and PlioMIP's boundary conditions

Abstract. We compare results obtained from modeling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different modeling methodologies and sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. Here, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2020). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model–model and model–data comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP's core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 and present further simulations in which we test model sensitivity to variations in paleogeography, orbit, and the concentration of CO2. Firstly, we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the challenges recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.29 ∘C colder in PlioMIP2 if compared to PlioMIP1 (17.82 ∘C in PlioMIP1, 17.53 ∘C in PlioMIP2; values based on simulated surface skin temperature). On the one hand, high-latitude warming, which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST), and the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated paleogeography. Our PlioMIP2 mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than those derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2 accounts for 0.5 ∘C of temperature difference in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Beyond the official set of PlioMIP2 simulations, we present further simulations and analyses that sample the phase space of potential alternative orbital forcings that have acted during the Pliocene and may have impacted geological records. Employing orbital forcing, which differs from that proposed for PlioMIP2 (i.e., corresponding to pre-industrial conditions) but falls into the mid-Pliocene time period targeted in PlioMIP, leads to pronounced annual and seasonal temperature variations. Our result identifies the changes in mid-Pliocene paleogeography from PRISM3 to PRISM4 as the major driver of the mid-Pliocene warmth within PlioMIP and not the minor differences in forcings.

Linkage of future regional climate extremes to global warming intensity

Changes in extreme climate have caused widespread concern, and it is important to understand how climate extremes will link to global warming intensity at the regional scale. Based on the daily minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation outputs from 25 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) climate models under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we project the linkage of future regional climate extremes to the global mean temperature increase above preindustrial levels. Results show that regionally averaged changes in absolute temperature extremes (the coldest night and the warmest day) scale linearly with global warming intensity. In contrast, changes in cold nights and cold days in all regions, warm nights in low latitudes, and warm days in Southeast Asia exhibit nonlinear relationships with the global mean temperature increase, which manifests rapid changes in early warming stages and weak changes in late warming stages. The percentile-based temperature extremes vary at large magnitudes as global warming intensifies in low latitudes, while large values are seen in middle and high latitudes for the coldest night and warmest day, respectively; large intermodel spread occurs in the strong scaling areas, except for cold days and cold nights. Regional mean changes in extreme precipitation show consistent linear trends with global warming, and different indices vary in magnitude with region. Extreme heavy precipitation events increase linearly with global warming in high latitudes with larger magnitudes. The intermodel spread is generally large in low latitudes and will increase with warming. The work presented here can provide effective support to decision makers for developing adaptation and mitigation measures.

Reaching 1.5 and 2.0 °C global surface temperature targets using stratospheric aerosol geoengineering

Abstract. A new set of stratospheric aerosol geoengineering (SAG) model experiments has been performed with Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM6) that are based on the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) overshoot scenario (SSP5-34-OS) as a baseline scenario to limit global warming to 1.5 or 2.0 ∘C above 1850–1900 conditions. The overshoot scenario allows us to applying a peak-shaving scenario that reduces the needed duration and amount of SAG application compared to a high forcing scenario. In addition, a feedback algorithm identifies the needed amount of sulfur dioxide injections in the stratosphere at four pre-defined latitudes, 30∘ N, 15∘ N, 15∘ S, and 30∘ S, to reach three surface temperature targets: global mean temperature, and interhemispheric and pole-to-Equator temperature gradients. These targets further help to reduce side effects, including overcooling in the tropics, warming of high latitudes, and large shifts in precipitation patterns. These experiments are therefore relevant for investigating the impacts on society and ecosystems. Comparisons to SAG simulations based on a high emission pathway baseline scenario (SSP5-85) are also performed to investigate the dependency of impacts using different injection amounts to offset surface warming by SAG. We find that changes from present-day conditions around 2020 in some variables depend strongly on the defined temperature target (1.5 ∘C vs. 2.0 ∘C). These include surface air temperature and related impacts, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, which impacts ocean net primary productivity, and changes in ice sheet surface mass balance, which impacts sea level rise. Others, including global precipitation changes and the recovery of the Antarctic ozone hole, depend strongly on the amount of SAG application. Furthermore, land net primary productivity as well as ocean acidification depend mostly on the global atmospheric CO2 concentration and therefore the baseline scenario. Multi-model comparisons of experiments that include strong mitigation and carbon dioxide removal with some SAG application are proposed to assess the robustness of impacts on societies and ecosystems.

Polar Phasing and Cross‐Equatorial Heat Transfer Following a Simulated Abrupt NH Warming of a Glacial Climate

AbstractA 150‐ to 220‐year lag between abrupt Greenland warming and maximum Antarctic warming characterizes past glacial Dansgaard‐Oeschger events. In a modeling study, we investigate how the cross‐equatorial oceanic heat transport (COHT) might drive this phasing during an abrupt Northern Hemisphere (NH) warming. We use the MITgcm in an idealized continental configuration with two ocean basins, one wider, one narrower, under glacial‐like conditions with sea ice reaching midlatitudes. An exaggerated eccentricity‐related solar radiation anomaly is imposed over 100 years to trigger an abrupt NH warming and sea‐ice melting. The Hadley circulation shifts northward in response, weakening the NH trade winds, subtropical cells, and COHT in both ocean basins. This induces heat convergence in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) ocean subsurface, from where upward heat release melts sea ice and warms SH high latitudes. Although the small‐basin meridional overturning circulation also weakens, driven by NH ice melting, it contributes at most one‐third to the total COHT anomaly, hence playing a subsidiary role in the SH and NH initial warming. Switching off the forcing cools the NH; yet heat release continues from the SH ocean subsurface via isopycnal advection‐diffusion and vertical mixing, driving further sea ice melting and high latitude warming for ~50–70 more years. A phasing in polar temperatures resembling reconstructions thus emerges, linked to changes in the subtropical cells’ COHT, and SH ocean heat storage and surface fluxes. Our results highlight the potential role of the atmosphere circulation and wind‐driven global ocean circulation in the NH–SH phasing seen in DO events.

Recent advances in understanding and measurement of mercury in the environment: Terrestrial Hg cycling

This review documents recent advances in terrestrial mercury cycling. Terrestrial mercury (Hg) research has matured in some areas, and is developing rapidly in others. We summarize the state of the science circa 2010 as a starting point, and then present the advances during the last decade in three areas: land use, sulfate deposition, and climate change. The advances are presented in the framework of three Hg “gateways” to the terrestrial environment: inputs from the atmosphere, uptake in food, and runoff with surface water. Among the most notable advances:•The Arctic has emerged as a hotbed of Hg cycling, with high stream fluxes and large stores of Hg poised for release from permafrost with rapid high-latitude warming.•The bi-directional exchange of Hg between the atmosphere and terrestrial surfaces is better understood, thanks largely to interpretation from Hg isotopes; the latest estimates place land surface Hg re-emission lower than previously thought.•Artisanal gold mining is now thought responsible for over half the global stream flux of Hg.•There is evidence that decreasing inputs of Hg to ecosystems may bring recovery sooner than expected, despite large ecosystem stores of legacy Hg.•Freshly deposited Hg is more likely than stored Hg to methylate and be incorporated in rice.•Topography and hydrological connectivity have emerged as master variables for explaining the disparate response of THg and MeHg to forest harvest and other land disturbance.These and other advances reported here are of value in evaluating the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on reducing environmental Hg exposure to humans and wildlife.

Modeling a modern-like &amp;lt;i&amp;gt;p&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt;CO&amp;lt;sub&amp;gt;2&amp;lt;/sub&amp;gt; warm period (Marine Isotope Stage KM5c) with two versions of an Institut Pierre Simon Laplace atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model

Abstract. The mid-Piacenzian warm period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma) is the most recent geological period with present-like atmospheric pCO2 and is thus expected to have exhibited a warm climate similar to or warmer than the present day. On the basis of understanding that has been gathered on the climate variability of this interval, a specific interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage KM5c, MIS KM5c; 3.205 Ma) has been selected for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project phase 2 (PlioMIP 2). We carried out a series of experiments according to the design of PlioMIP2 with two versions of the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) atmosphere–ocean coupled general circulation model (AOGCM): IPSL-CM5A and IPSL-CM5A2. Compared to the PlioMIP 1 experiment, run with IPSL-CM5A, our results show that the simulated MIS KM5c climate presents enhanced warming in mid- to high latitudes, especially over oceanic regions. This warming can be largely attributed to the enhanced Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation caused by the high-latitude seaway changes. The sensitivity experiments, conducted with IPSL-CM5A2, show that besides the increased pCO2, both modified orography and reduced ice sheets contribute substantially to mid- to high latitude warming in MIS KM5c. When considering the pCO2 uncertainties (+/-50 ppmv) during the Pliocene, the response of the modeled mean annual surface air temperature to changes to pCO2 (+/-50 ppmv) is not symmetric, which is likely due to the nonlinear response of the cryosphere (snow cover and sea ice extent). By analyzing the Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass balance, we also demonstrate its vulnerability under both MIS KM5c and modern warm climate.

Southern-Hemisphere high-latitude stratospheric warming revisit

Previous studies showed significant stratospheric warming at the Southern-Hemisphere (SH) high latitudes in September and October over 1979–2006. The warming trend center was located over the Southern Ocean poleward of the Western Pacific in September, with a maximum trend of about 2.8 K/decade. The warming trends in October showed a dipole pattern, with the warming center over the Ross and Amundsen Sea, and the maximum warming trend is about 2.6 K/decade. In the present study, we revisit the problem of the SH stratospheric warming in the recent decade. It is found that the SH high-latitude stratosphere continued warming in September and October over 2007–2017, but with very different spatial patterns. Multiple linear regression demonstrates that ozone increases play an important role in the SH high-latitude stratospheric warming in September and November, while the changes in the Brewer-Dobson circulation contributes little to the warming. This is different from the situation over 1979–2006 when the SH high-latitude stratospheric warming was mainly caused by the strengthening of the Brewer-Dobson circulation and the eastward shift of the warming center. Simulations forced with observed ozone changes over 2007–2017 shows warming trends, suggesting that the observed warming trends over 2007–2017 are at least partly due to ozone recovery. The warming trends due to ozone recovery have important implications for stratospheric, tropospheric and surface climates on SH.

The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world.

Over the past decade, the Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing the global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, the Arctic and Antarctic may reach 4°C and 2°C mean annual warming, and 7°C and 3°C winter warming, respectively. Expected consequences of increased Arctic warming include ongoing loss of land and sea ice, threats to wildlife and traditional human livelihoods, increased methane emissions, and extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, Antarctic ecosystems may be vulnerable to state shifts and species invasions. Land ice loss in both regions will contribute substantially to global sea level rise, with up to 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce warming, but without them northern high latitude warming may accelerate in the next two to four decades. International cooperation will be crucial to foreseeing and adapting to expected changes.

The sensitivity of climatological SST to slab ocean model thickness

A pronounced tropical cooling (> 4 °C) and high-latitude warming in the annual mean sea surface temperature (SST) climatology is found in a numerical experiment conducted with a coupled model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) in which the time-independent SOM thickness is reduced by a factor of two. The results suggest that biases in the ocean mixed layer depth could be contributing to SST biases in coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models. These changes in annual mean SST are noteworthy since in simple climate models the SOM thickness controls the amplitude and phase of the SST annual cycle, but it plays no role in determining the annual mean SST. Results from the numerical experiment indicate that halving of the SOM thickness not only changes annual cycle amplitude but results in asymmetrical changes in the annual cycle that rectify onto annual mean SST. The changed SOM thickness is found to primarily affect the surface net solar flux and latent heat flux components. However, due to the SOM equilibrium energy budget constraint, the annual mean net surface heat flux does not change, and the solar and latent heat fluxes changes compensate for each other. There is no such constraint on the annual cycle of heat fluxes, where the solar and latent components act to reinforce each other over much of the ocean, with the notable exception of the tropic Pacific warm pool region. We investigate the influence of the amplitude of the SST annual cycle on the annual mean SST through the net surface heat flux and its components using a two-step approach. First, two prescribed SST AGCM simulations are carried out, both with the annual mean SST of the full-thickness SOM coupled model simulation: one forced with the SST annual cycle of the full-thickness SOM coupled simulation, and the other forced with the SST annual cycle of the half-thickness SOM coupled simulation. Second, the impacts of these changes in the annual cycle on the annual mean SST are assessed in a full-thickness AGCM-SOM coupled simulation forced by the net, annual-mean, surface heat flux changes produced by the SST annual cycle changes in the first step. It is found that these net surface heat flux changes can largely reproduce the annual mean SST sensitivity to SOM thickness found in the coupled SOM thickness halving experiment. The effects on the annual mean heat flux components and annual mean SST from changes in the SOM thickness in an idealized limiting case are also considered.

Southern high-latitude warmth during the Jurassic–Cretaceous: New evidence from clumped isotope thermometry

Abstract In order to understand the climate dynamics of the Mesozoic greenhouse world, it is vital to determine paleotemperatures from higher latitudes. For the Jurassic and Cretaceous climate, there are significant discrepancies between different proxies and between proxy data and climate models. We determined paleotemperatures from Late Jurassic and Early Cretaceous belemnites using the carbonate clumped isotope paleothermometer and compared these values to temperatures derived from TEX86 and other proxies. From our analyses, we infer an average temperature of ∼25 °C for the upper part of the water column of the southern Atlantic Ocean. Our data imply that for mid- to high latitudes, climate models underestimate marine temperatures by &gt;5 °C and, therefore, the amount of warming that would accompany an increase in atmospheric CO2 of more than 4× pre-industrial levels, as is projected for the near future.

The Response of the Midlatitude Jet to Regional Polar Heating in a Simple Storm-Track Model

AbstractGiven the recent changes in the Arctic sea ice, understanding the effects of the resultant polar warming on the global climate is of great importance. However, the interaction between the Arctic and midlatitude circulation involves a complex chain of mechanisms, which leaves state-of-the-art general circulation models unable to represent this interaction unambiguously. This study uses an idealized general circulation model to provide a process-based understanding of the sensitivity of the midlatitude circulation to the location of high-latitude warming. A simplified atmosphere is simulated with a single zonally localized midlatitude storm track, which is analogous to the storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere. It is found that even small changes in the position of the forcing relative to that storm track can lead to very different responses in the midlatitude circulation. More specifically, it is found that heating concentrated in one region may cause a substantially stronger global response compared to when the same amount of heating is distributed across all longitudes at the same latitude. Linear interference between climatological and anomalous flow is an important component of the response, but it does not explain differences between different longitudes of the forcing. Feedbacks from atmospheric transient eddies are found to be associated with this strong response. A dependence between the climatological jet latitude and the jet response to polar surface heating is found. These results can be used to design and interpret experiments with complex state-of-the-art models targeted at Arctic–midlatitude interactions.

Late Cretaceous Temperature Evolution of the Southern High Latitudes: A TEX86 Perspective

AbstractThe Late Cretaceous was a greenhouse world, characterized by elevated temperatures and high atmospheric pCO2. Even in the context of an extreme greenhouse climate, existing planktic foraminiferal δ18O data from the Falkland Plateau (paleolatitude of ~55°S) suggest anomalous warmth, with sea‐surface temperatures (SSTs) &gt;30 °C for much of the Late Cretaceous, followed by sudden cooling in the Campanian. Over the last two decades, there has been discussion as to whether these high δ18O‐based SSTs reflect a genuine temperature signal and, if so, whether there was a local temperature anomaly in the South Atlantic or whether the data are representative of zonal paleotemperatures at 55°S. To provide new insights into the degree of ocean warming in the southern high latitudes during the Late Cretaceous (Cenomanian to Campanian), new SST records from the Falkland and Kerguelen Plateaus are presented here using the organic geochemical paleothermometer TetraEther indeX of 86 carbon atoms (TEX86). Overall, the TEX86 data support the δ18O data, indicating extreme and widespread warmth in the middle to high southern latitudes in the Late Cretaceous, with SSTs from 27 to 37 °C. Crucially, the TEX86 data show slow, steady cooling from the Turonian to the Campanian and suggest that temperature gradients during the Campanian did not become as steep as suggested by some planktic foraminiferal data.

Evidence for non-steady-state carbon emissions from snow-scoured alpine tundra

High-latitude warming is capable of accelerating permafrost degradation and the decomposition of previously frozen carbon. The existence of an analogous high-altitude feedback, however, has yet to be directly evaluated. We address this knowledge gap by coupling a radiocarbon-based model to 7 years (2008–2014) of continuous eddy covariance data from a snow-scoured alpine tundra meadow in Colorado, USA, where solifluction lobes are associated with discontinuous permafrost. On average, the ecosystem was a net annual source of 232 ± 54 g C m−2 (mean ± 1 standard deviation) to the atmosphere, and respiration of relatively radiocarbon-depleted (i.e., older) substrate contributes to carbon emissions during the winter. Given that alpine soils with permafrost occupy 3.6 × 106 km2 land area and are estimated to contain 66.3 Pg of soil organic carbon (4.5% of the global pool), this scenario has global implications for the mountain carbon balance and corresponding resource allocation to lower elevations.

Ocean carbon inventory under warmer climate conditions – the case of the Last Interglacial

Abstract. During the Last Interglacial period (LIG), the transition from 125 to 115 ka provides a case study for assessing the response of the carbon system to different levels of high-latitude warmth. Elucidating the mechanisms responsible for interglacial changes in the ocean carbon inventory provides constraints on natural carbon sources and sinks and their climate sensitivity, which are essential for assessing potential future changes. However, the mechanisms leading to modifications of the ocean's carbon budget during this period remain poorly documented and not well understood. Using a state-of-the-art Earth system model, we analyze the changes in oceanic carbon dynamics by comparing two quasi-equilibrium states: the early, warm Eemian (125 ka) versus the cooler, late Eemian (115 ka). We find considerably reduced ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC; −314.1 PgC) storage in the warm climate state at 125 ka as compared to 115 ka, mainly attributed to changes in the biological pump and ocean DIC disequilibrium components. The biological pump is mainly driven by changes in interior ocean ventilation timescales, but the processes controlling the changes in ocean DIC disequilibrium remain difficult to assess and seem more regionally affected. While the Atlantic bottom-water disequilibrium is affected by the organization of sea-ice-induced southern-sourced water (SSW) and northern-sourced water (NSW), the upper-layer changes remain unexplained. Due to its large size, the Pacific accounts for the largest DIC loss, approximately 57 % of the global decrease. This is largely associated with better ventilation of the interior Pacific water mass. However, the largest simulated DIC differences per unit volume are found in the SSWs of the Atlantic. Our study shows that the deep-water geometry and ventilation in the South Atlantic are altered between the two climate states where warmer climatic conditions cause SSWs to retreat southward and NSWs to extent further south. This process is mainly responsible for the simulated DIC reduction by restricting the extent of DIC-rich SSW, thereby reducing the storage of biological remineralized carbon at depth.