High Interest Research Articles

Determinants and international transmission of interest rates: Do foreign reserves and sovereign debt matter?

AbstractWe analyze the role of international reserves and sovereign debt in the determination and international transmission of interest rates. We develop a model that describes the money market equilibrium with capital account openness. It predicts that higher levels of international reserves lead to lower interest rates whereas the effect of higher government debt is ambiguous. We then test empirically these predictions on a panel of 128 countries over 1985–2019. We find that: (i) the transmission of U.S. interest rates to domestic interest rates is stronger in emerging market economies (EMEs) than in advanced economies (AEs) for short‐term interest rates (STIR), and vice versa for long‐term interest rates (LTIR); (ii) international reserves help counteract the transmission of the U.S. policy rate on STIR in EMEs; (iii) a higher sovereign debt level is associated with lower interest rates in EMEs (liquidity effect), but higher interest rates in developing economies (risk premium effect).

Estimating the precise form of uncovered interest parity under the Stock–Watson dynamic OLS approach

The standard uncovered interest parity (UIP) – a logarithm version – is inappropriate for currencies with a high-interest rate because the high-interest rate (i) does not satisfy the ln(1+i)=i condition. Therefore, we develop a precise form of UIP and evaluate its existence using BRICS countries as an example. The Stock–Watson dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) approach based on a panel cointegration test provides individual and group estimation, finding that UIP holds for all BRICS members except for China. This implies that the financial markets of other four economies are fully integrated with the United States financial market.

Does Risk-Taking Increase or Decrease with Higher Interest Rates?

Does Risk-Taking Increase or Decrease with Higher Interest Rates?

A Retrospective Study of Cat Hoarding Cases and Their Management Through Voluntary Spay/Neuter and Relinquishment In New York City

Introduction: Animal hoarding cases are complex sources of shelter intake. Cases require significant planning, collaboration, and resources, often from multiple responding organizations. Study objectives included description of cat hoarding cases in New York City not criminally pursued, case outcomes when managed by a spay/neuter and relinquishment program utilizing a collaborative approach with caregivers, and characteristics or interventions leading to better outcomes. Methods: Data were extracted from the American Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animal’s Community Engagement (CE) case files. Eligible cases were retrieved using a keyword search and screened for inclusion criteria. Client demographics, case factors, and outcomes were described with descriptive statistics. Data were further analyzed using adjusted logistic regression models to investigate variables predictive of outcomes. Results: The study population included 79 cases with a median population size of 22 cats. The majority of clients were female, lived alone, and had high levels of social vulnerability. Object hoarding was reported in 29.1% of cases and unsanitary conditions in 68.4% of cases. Almost one-third (30.4%) identified as rescuers or community cat caregivers. At the time of the first interaction with CE, 88.6% of clients were interested in spay/neuter and 76.0% in surrender services. Social service agencies were involved in the initial CE intervention in 26.4% of cases. Successful outcomes were defined as cases in which clients were left with a manageable population of cats, or all cats were removed. Successful outcomes were achieved in 67.1% of cases after the first CE intervention. Recidivism occurred in 41.5% of these cases. Clients who showed an initial interest in surrender were 10 times more likely (OR 10.0, P = 0.014) to experience a successful outcome than clients not interested in surrender. Significant predictors of re-collection included clients identifying as rescuers (OR 4.8, P = 0.039) and the involvement of human service agencies during or after the CE intervention (OR 6.1, P = 0.041). Conclusion: Results demonstrate animal hoarding cases involving cooperative caregivers and rescuers can be successfully managed by programs using a collaborative approach with clients. The high rates of initial interest in spay/neuter and surrender in caregivers suggest a need to expand access to veterinary care and strategically manage case intake into shelters. Further interdisciplinary research is needed on how mental health, social service, and animal service providers can attain successful outcomes long-term and reduce recidivism in animal hoarding cases.

UK Foreign Direct Investment in uncertain economic times

This paper uses time-varying Bayesian models to assess the impact of the shifting, and progressively more volatile (especially since the EU Referendum vote in 2016) macroeconomic landscape on Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows to the UK. FDI inflows are depressed in response to higher UK-specific economic and geopolitical uncertainty. A stronger real exchange rate and a higher interest rate also have a negative effect. It benefits from lower UK corporate tax rates and higher US uncertainty, the latter creating investment opportunities in the UK. Rising economic policy uncertainty since the EU Referendum, has led to FDI losses of up to 0.5% of GDP.

Recruiting refugees to reduce labour shortages in health care professions: experimental evidence on the potential of foreign-language outreach on social media

BackgroundMany high-income countries are grappling with severe labour shortages in the healthcare sector. Refugees and recent migrants present a potential pool for staff recruitment due to their higher unemployment rates, younger age, and lower average educational attainment compared to the host society's labour force. Despite this, refugees and recent migrants, often possessing limited language skills in the destination country, are frequently excluded from traditional recruitment campaigns conducted solely in the host country’s language. Even those with intermediate language skills may feel excluded, as destination-country language advertisements are perceived as targeting only native speakers. This study experimentally assesses the effectiveness of a recruitment campaign for nursing positions in a German care facility, specifically targeting Arabic and Ukrainian speakers through Facebook advertisements.MethodsWe employ an experimental design (AB test) approximating a randomized controlled trial, utilizing Facebook as the delivery platform. We compare job advertisements for nursing positions in the native languages of Arabic and Ukrainian speakers (treatment) with the same advertisements displayed in German (control) for the same target group in the context of a real recruitment campaign for nursing jobs in Berlin, Germany. Our evaluation includes comparing link click rates, visits to the recruitment website, initiated applications, and completed applications, along with the unit cost of these indicators. We assess statistical significance in group differences using the Chi-squared test.ResultsWe find that recruitment efforts in the origin language were 5.6 times (Arabic speakers) and 1.9 times (Ukrainian speakers) more effective in initiating nursing job applications compared to the standard model of German-only advertisements among recent migrants and refugees. Overall, targeting refugees and recent migrants was 2.4 (Ukrainians) and 10.8 (Arabic) times cheaper than targeting the reference group of German speakers indicating higher interest among these groups.ConclusionsThe results underscore the substantial benefits for employers in utilizing targeted recruitment via social media aimed at foreign-language communities within the country. This strategy, which is low-cost and low effort compared to recruiting abroad or investing in digitalization, has the potential for broad applicability in numerous high-income countries with sizable migrant communities. Increased employment rates among underemployed refugee and migrant communities, in turn, contribute to reducing poverty, social exclusion, public expenditure, and foster greater acceptance of newcomers within the receiving society.

The Income Augmenting and Budget Tightening Impacts of Microfinance: Theory and Evidence from Pakistan

Since the institutionalization of microcredit as the flagship poverty alleviation program, its potential has been under constant scrutiny by practitioners and researchers. This article extends previous work by analyzing two issues: (a) whether microcredit has the potential to alleviate poverty and (b) whether the conclusion drawn from the first issue is sensitive to interest rate variations. We first theoretically show that there is reason to believe that microcredit has the potential to change the fortunes of poor communities. However, the direction of the change in fortunes is uncertain and depends on how costly microfinance institutions’ financial services are perceived by the poor. We then test these theoretical assertions against data collected from 568 individuals from Northern Pakistan. By comparing various sub-groups using Ordinary Least Square and Binary Logistic regression analysis, our results reveal that higher interest rates more than offset the positive effects of microcredit on clients’ income. We also discuss policy implications of the findings. JEL Classification: I30, G21, C61, E64.

Ligand- and Structure-based Approaches for Transmembrane Transporter Modeling.

The study of transporter proteins is key to understanding the mechanism behind multidrug resistance and drug-drug interactions causing severe side effects. While ATP-binding transporters are well-studied, solute carriers illustrate an understudied family with a high number of orphan proteins. To study these transporters, in silico methods can be used to shed light on the basic molecular machinery by studying protein-ligand interactions. Nowadays, computational methods are an integral part of the drug discovery and development process. In this short review, computational approaches, such as machine learning, are discussed, which try to tackle interactions between transport proteins and certain compounds to locate target proteins. Furthermore, a few cases of selected members of the ATP binding transporter and solute carrier family are covered, which are of high interest in clinical drug interaction studies, especially for regulatory agencies. The strengths and limitations of ligand-based and structure-based methods are discussed to highlight their applicability for different studies. Furthermore, the combination of multiple approaches can improve the information obtained to find crucial amino acids that explain important interactions of protein-ligand complexes in more detail. This allows the design of drug candidates with increased activity towards a target protein, which further helps to support future synthetic efforts.

거시경제 및 인구특성의 변화가 수도권 및 비수도권 주택 매매시장에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구

This study attempted to compare and derive the impact on the housing sales market in the metropolitan area and local cities and to present implications in terms of the real estate brokerage market. The Vector Error Correction Model was used as the analysis method in consideration of the time series characteristics and cointegration relationship of the used macroeconomic and demographic variables. The analysis results and implications are summarized as follows. In the case of the metropolitan area model, interest rates, consumer price indices, population growth rates, and fertility rates were the main factors influencing the housing sales market. The five metropolitan city models are the main factors influencing interest rates, economic growth rates, and consumer price indices, while the explanatory power of the fertility rate is very low. Considering these results, housing can be classified as an investment product in the metropolitan area, and local cities can be classified as a housing sales market with strong characteristics as a consumer product. Long-term housing sales are not expected to increase significantly due to the recent decline in investment and real demand due to the stabilization of housing prices due to high-interest rates. The housing brokerage market needs to be developed into a convergence field by combining highly relevant management and consulting.

The Effect of Interest and Inflation Rates on Stock Returns: Quantile Regression Analysis for Türkiye

According to financial theory, there is an inverse relationship between interest rate and stock returns and prices. In the framework of the Liquidity Preference Theory, the rise in interest rates causes the money to move towards higher interest rates, so demand for stock market decreases and returns fall. The behaviour of stock prices on interest rates and inflation has been investigated by various time series analysis methods. However, in this study, the subject is handled in a different approach by using the Quantile Regression (QR) method. In the study, nominal interest rate is decomposed into real interest rate and inflation components and effects on stock prices are examined for the period January 2013 - July 2023 separately for services, financial, industrial and technology sector indices. When it comes to the impact of nominal and real interest rates on returns in QR estimates, it is seen that the service and industrial sectors differ in terms of both tail and sign. The similarities between Least Squares estimates and QR estimates are striking. However, the effect of volatility in variables on the differentiation in relationships is also an issue that should be emphasized.

THE EFFECT OF MICROFINANCE BANK LOAN ON PERFORMANCE OF SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISES IN NIGERIA

This paper evaluates the impact of microfinance bank loans on small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Osun State, Nigeria. The SMEs encounter major difficulties when trying to obtain financing, which hampers their growth and contributions to the economy. Microfinance banks are crucial as they provide essential financial services tailored for SMEs, facilitating economic growth. A descriptive survey design was used so as to collect data from 150 randomly selected SME operators across various sectors in the Osun State. The findings show that microfinance loans significantly enhance SME performance leading to increased productivity, employment, and business expansion. However, high-interest rates & stringent loan conditions present substantial challenges that hinder optimal loan utilization. Study concludes that while microfinance bank loans positively influence SME growth, addressing these barriers could improve effectiveness & sustainability in SMEs. Enhancing loan terms could boost microfinance banks role in fostering long-term economic improvement in the region. This study empirically links the microfinance bank loans to SME performance, contributing to the literature on SME financing and economic development in Nigeria.

<p>Assessing the Effect of Monetary Policy on the Competitiveness of Agricultural Enterprises</p>

There are many scientific works the effects of monetary policy on the competitiveness of enterprises. However, no research has yet been conducted on agricultural enterprises. Therefore, the aim of this article is to indicate the effects of monetary policy on the competitiveness of agricultural enterprises. Regression analysis is a suitable econometric method to determine the strength of the effects of monetary policy on competitiveness. In our model, a multiple regression method was used, where interest rates, inflation and exchange rate were defined as exogenous (independent) variables, while revenues of agricultural enterprises were defined as an endogenous (dependent) variable. The findings reveal that the monetary policy significantly affects agricultural competitiveness. Specifically, higher interest rates are shown to have a negative impact on the performance of agricultural enterprises. Economic theory states that higher interest rates have a negative impact on competitiveness, and the results of calculations show that interest rates do have a dominant impact on the agricultural enterprise performance. Monetary policymakers, especially the central bank, should focus on keeping interest rates low in order to increase the availability of operating and investment capital. A market environment with low interest rates could stimulate the introduction of innovations, the implementation of new technologies and the development of robotization in agricultural enterprises. Lower financing costs due to low interest rates could boost business activities and economic growth, which could have a positive impact on the competitiveness of agricultural businesses. The conclusions of our research confirm that in the Czech Republic monetary policy remains a key tool for supporting the development of agricultural enterprises and their competitiveness.

Research on the Operation Mechanism and Coping Strategies of Social Networks in the Ponzi Scheme

Social network marketing is one of the most mainstream scams today. This kind of fraud deceives many investors, generates negative effects on society, and decreases people’s trust and confidence in the investment. That is the main reason for and importance of tracing the origin of this kind of scam and talking about the Ponzi Scheme. The Ponzi Scheme is a fraud that happened a century ago, and the core method was to promise investors a high-interest rate in a short period of time and use the money of new payers’ money to afford the interests of previous investors. The mechanism sounds simple and not rigorous; however, this fraud received a successful consequence and became the origin of today’s form of fraud. This form of fraud with high profits is still very popular based on the nature of people’s greed. This passage aims to introduce the relationship between social networks and the conducting of the Ponzi scheme. Also, a discussion about how people reveal and prevent the traps of that kind of fraud is included. This study shows that the model of social networks in the Ponzi Scheme is a star network, and there is a hierarchy in this model. Also, the passage concludes with suggestions for the government, firms, and individuals.

Financial Inclusion and Retirement Planning: A Scenario Analysis of the Feasibility of Atal Pension

Financial inclusion, crucial for economic development, has gained global attention, particularly in emerging economies like India where initiatives to improve access to financial services are vital. Objective: This study aims to assess the feasibility and potential impact of the Atal Pension Yojana (APY) on retirement planning within India's unorganised sector through scenario analysis. Methodology: Utilising secondary data, the study analyses the present and future values of contributions and pension benefits under various scenarios, focusing on different starting ages and pension amounts. Findings: The analysis suggests that, at higher interest rates, the present value of pension benefits from APY may fall short of contributions, indicating potential shortcomings in fulfilling retirement needs. However, younger subscribers could benefit under certain conditions, emphasising the importance of early enrolment. Implications: The research highlights concerns regarding the effectiveness of APY in addressing retirement needs, suggesting the need for additional government support to enhance the scheme's attractiveness and financial feasibility. Originality: This study offers a multidimensional exploration of financial inclusion and retirement planning within the framework of APY, contributing to the literature on this topic, especially in economies with informal labour markets and limited social security mechanisms. Keywords: Retirement Planning, Financial Inclusion, Social Security, Pension Scheme, Atal Pension Yojana.

Search traffic for inflatable penile prosthesis increased following the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States: a Google Trends analysis.

We aimed to determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on search trends for inflatable penile implants in the US. Search trends for inflatable penile implants ranging from 2016 through 2023 were analyzed utilizing Google Trends. Associations between search trends and US Census Bureau data, including average household income and per capita income, were analyzed. Pre- and post- COVID-19, the interest in inflatable penile implants has been steadily increasing on average in the US. The average household income for counties with the highest interest in inflatable penile implants during the pre-COVID era was $53,136, whereas for the counties with the highest interest in inflatable penile implants in the post-COVID era, the average decreased to $50,940. Similarly, the average per capita median decreased from $35,209 to $34,547. Search traffic for inflatable penile prosthesis increased following the pandemic in the US. Nevertheless, post-pandemic, individuals with lower income levels showed no change in interest in penile implant searches compared to the pre-pandemic period. Understanding this steadiness in interest can inform healthcare professionals and policymakers to tailor interventions and educational efforts to reach a broader audience, ensuring equitable access to information and healthcare resources.

Financial Development in the Face of Rising Public Debt in Ghana: A Qualitative Study

This qualitative study explored the relationship between financial development and public debt within the context of Ghana. It sought to comprehend the impact of rising public debt on financial development and the broader implications for economic growth and stability in Ghana, a lower middle-income country grappling with high debt levels and fiscal challenges. The study thus employed a qualitative research paradigm, gathering data through face-to-face interviews with sixteen (16) economic and financial experts from five (5) prominent banks in Ghana. This method allowed for an in-depth appreciation of the subjective perceptions and insights of stakeholders directly involved in or affected by Ghana’s financial and public debt management sectors. Ethical considerations were meticulously adhered to, ensuring informed consent and confidentiality of the participants. The study revealed a moderate pace of financial development hindered by high-interest rates and limited access to credit. Public debt was perceived as excessively high, posing significant financial stability and economic growth risks. Policy recommendations from the study emphasize the need for fiscal discipline, improved regulatory frameworks, enhanced financial inclusion, and strategic investment in infrastructure and education. This study contributes to the literature by providing a qualitative insight into the complex dynamics between financial development and public debt in Ghana, a topic that has been less explored in empirical studies, especially from a qualitative perspective.

Determinants of Residential Real Estate Property Prices in Ethiopia: The Case of Bahir Dar City

The Ethiopian real estate industry has grown in the previous two decades, especially in the capital city of the country and regional capitals, including Bahir Dar. Real estate prices have doubled and even tripled in a few years because of different factors. Thus, the purpose of this study is to analyse the factors affecting residential real estate prices in Ethiopia, particularly in Bahir Dar City. For this purpose, the study used both purposive and stratified random sampling techniques. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data, and the ordinary least squares method was used to identify the factors that influence residential real estate prices. The hedonic regression model result reveals that R<sup>2</sup> statistics (0.880) indicate that 88% of the variation in residential real estate prices can be explained by variation in the independent variables. Hedonic regression model results revealed that plot size, floor area, number of rooms, age of the house, external wall finishing material, ceiling finishing material, the direction of the house, distance of the property from the main road, and involvement of brokers in the transaction process, were major micro-factors that had a significant effect on residential real estate prices at the 5% level of significance. Furthermore, the interview results show that the challenges faced by real estate developers mostly include loans and aid issues, high-interest rates, mortgage restrictions, the financial capacity of real estate companies, delays in plan approvals, and rising costs of construction materials are among the major challenges affecting investment in real estate. The study suggests that the municipality of Bahir Dar City should provide an adequate supply of land to real estate developers, improve infrastructure development, and federal and regional governments should provide the credit lending mechanism by lowering interest rate especially for low-income class.

Investors’ demand in Initial Public Offering (IPO): Shariah compliance, corporate governance and macroeconomic factors

Purpose Initial Public Offering (IPO) is a major milestone for a company. It allows a private company to issue shares to a much broader group of investors and become public. But conclusive evidence of the driving forces behind investors’ demand is yet to be identified. Therefore, the major purpose of this study is to assess the level of investors’ demand in IPO and how investors’ demand in IPOs is affected. Design/methodology/approach The study will employ 80 IPO companies of a Muslim-majority country, Bangladesh, starting from 2013 to 2021 with application of linear and quantile regressions. Apart from that, t-test will be used to compare means of groups of Shariah-compliant and non-Shariah-compliant firms and IPOs under fixed-price and book-building mechanism. Findings Oversubscription is higher for IPOs issued through fixed-price method compared to book-building method, but no significant difference is found in oversubscription for Shariah firms compared to non-Shariah firms based on t-tests. The authors found IPO size, firm size, IPO risk, proportion of shares offered to public, and bank interest rate to have significant impact on the IPO demand. Some models found non-Shariah compliance status of IPO companies to be a significant factor for the investors to demand IPO. Quantile regression results found board independence to have a positive association with larger, less-subscribed firms and board size to have a negative relation with IPO demand, for smaller firms with high demand. Research limitations/implications Future studies may apply the findings to other settings, especially into the reasons behind preference for non-Shariah-compliant firms and higher demand for IPOs during higher interest rate. Equity issuing firms and issue managers can benefit from this study by wisely deciding on the proportion of shares for public, issue size and board of director composition. Shariah considerations cannot be ignored given that more information on Shariah compliance is disseminated among investors despite current non-preference for Shariah-compliant IPOs. On the other hand, institutional investors and general investors should consider firm-specific, governance and macroeconomic factors in IPO investment. Likewise, regulators would do well to bring in quality IPOs with characteristics mentioned in this study for ensuring stability of the market. Originality/value The main contribution of the study is identifying determinants of IPO demand: faith, governance, macro issues – understanding whether one or many of the above factors drive investor demand in IPOs of a Muslim-majority country will be the main contribution.

Communication Aspect of National Testing Digitalization: Investigating Key Stakeholders’ Satisfaction

Research Question: The paper deals with the analysis of the elements of the communication system in the process of digitalization of the national testing process in the Republic of Serbia. Motivation: National testing represents an important segment of education in most countries. Considering that it involves a large number of stakeholders and activities, innovations based on the implementation of new technologies are complex and require significant efforts and resources for their implementation. The digitalization of national testing in Serbia, in addition to the development of software and organizational solutions, is accompanied by the development and implementation of a communication system aimed at facilitating the acceptance of innovations by all participants. This paper addresses the analysis of the efficiency of the elements of the communication system and satisfaction of stakeholders with them, at the final exam at the end of primary education in the Republic of Serbia. Idea: The paper aims to describe a successful communication system implemented to support the process of national testing digitalization. Effective communication is essential due to the large number of participants involved in the process and should ensure national testing effectiveness and transparency. Data: For the analysis of the satisfaction of two stakeholder groups with the highest interest and influence in the process of conducting the final exam, data obtained from surveys conducted in 2021, 2022, and 2023 were used. Each year, the questionnaire was completed by over 900 primary school principals and over 8,000 parents of final-grade pupils. Tools: In the research, a questionnaire specifically designed for two stakeholder groups - primary school principals and parents of final-grade pupils was used. Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis were employed. Findings: The research has found that high satisfaction among key stakeholders (primary school principals and parents) is achieved through a carefully designed and implemented communication system, which includes an internet portal, written and video instructions, as well as direct support from trained and expert individuals. The communication system element that has the greatest impact on principals' satisfaction is the administrative portal, while for parents, it comprises all instructions prepared for carrying out activities. Contribution: This paper expands on existing research related to the digitalization of national testing and highlights the key elements of the communication system to enhance participant satisfaction in the process.

Understanding preferences for receiving health communications and information about clinical trials: a cross-sectional study among US adults

Objective Effective health communication is critical for understanding and acting on health information. This cross-sectional study explored participants’ understanding of their health condition, their preferences for receiving health communications, and their interest in receiving clinical trial results across several therapeutic areas. Methods The study recruited participants via social media, email newsletters, and advocacy organizations. An online screener captured demographic information (health conditions, age, race/ethnicity, gender, and education). Eligible participants were emailed an online survey assessing preferred sources and formats for receiving health information, interest in learning about topics related to the results of clinical trials, and health literacy levels. Results In total, 449 participants (median age, 35 years [range, 18–76]; White, 53%; higher education, 65%; mean (range) health literacy score, 1.9 [0.4–3.0]) from 45 US states completed the survey representing 12 disease indications (bipolar, blood and solid tumor cancers, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, major depressive disorder, migraine, Parkinson’s, psoriasis/atopic dermatitis, retinal vein occlusion/macular degeneration, rheumatoid arthritis, and spasticity). Healthcare providers were the preferred source of health information (59%), followed by Internet searches (11%). Least preferred sources were social media (5%), friends/family (3%), and email newsletters (2%). Participants preferred multiple formats and ranked reading materials online as most preferred (33%), along with videos (28%) and infographics (27%). Printed materials (14%) and audio podcasts (9%) were the least preferred formats. A majority of the participants reported that the health information they found was hard to understand (57%) and confusing (62%). Most participants (85%) were somewhat/very interested in learning about clinical trial results, with the highest interest in short summaries of safety (78%) and efficacy (74%) results. Conclusion Effective health communication may be achieved via multiple formats shared directly by healthcare providers.