High Inflation Regime Research Articles

The Effect of Inflation on Inflation Uncertainty in the G7 Countries: A Double Threshold GARCH Model

This paper studies the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty in a modelling framework where both the conditional mean and conditional variance of inflation are regime specific, and the GARCH model for inflation uncertainty is extended by including a lagged inflation term in each regime. Applying this model to the G7 countries with monthly data from 1970 till 2013, it is found that the impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty differs over the regimes in most of the G7 countries. The findings also provide strong empirical support to the well-known Friedman-Ball hypothesis of positive impact of inflation on inflation uncertainty, but only for the high-inflation regime.

Learning and Monetary Policy Shifts

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic equilibrium model in which agents use a Bayesian rule to learn about the state of monetary policy. Monetary policy follows a nominal interest rate rule that is subject to regime shifts. The following results are obtained. First, the author’s policy regime estimates are consistent with the popular view that policy was marked by a shift to a high-inflation regime in the early 1970s, which ended with Volcker’s stabilization policy at the beginning of the 1980s. Second, while Bayesian posterior odds favor the “full-information” version of the model in which agents know the policy regime, the fall of inflation and interest rates in the disinflation episode in the early 1980s is better captured by the delayed response of the “learning” specification. Third, the author examines the magnitude of the expectations-formation effect of monetary policy interventions in the “learning” specification by comparing impulse responses to a version of the model in which agents ignore the information contained in current and past monetary policy shocks about the likelihood of a regime shift.

Rehypothecation and Liquidity

We develop a dynamic general equilibrium monetary model where a shortage of collateral and incomplete markets motivate the formation of credit relationships and the rehypothecation of assets. Rehypothecation improves resource allocation because it permits liquidity to flow where it is most needed. The liquidity benefits associated with rehypothecation are shown to be more important in high-inflation (high interest rate) regimes. Regulations restricting the practice are shown to have very different consequences depending on how they are designed. Assigning collateral to segregated accounts, as prescribed in the Dodd-Frank Act, is generally welfare-reducing. In contrast, an SEC15c3-3 type regulation can improve welfare through the regulatory premium it confers on cash holdings, which are inefficiently low when interest rates and inflation are high.

Inflation Uncertainty and Disagreement in Bond Risk Premia

This paper examines the relation between variations in perceived inflation uncertainty and bond premia. Using the subjective probability distributions available in the Survey of Professional Forecasters we construct a quarterly time series of average individual uncertainty about inflation forecasts since 1968. We show that this ex-ante measure of inflation uncertainty differs importantly from measures of disagreement regarding inflation forecasts and other proxies, such as model-based ex-post measures of macroeconomic risk. Inflation uncertainty is an important driver of bond premia, but the relation varies across inflation regimes. It is most important in the high-inflation regime early in the sample and the low-inflation regime over the last 15 years. Once the role of inflation uncertainty is accounted for, disagreement regarding inflation forecasts appears a much less important driver of bond premia.

Revisiting the role of inflation environment in exchange rate pass-through: A panel threshold approach

This paper sheds new light on the role of inflation regimes in explaining the extent of exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) into import prices. In order to classify the 24 developing countries included in his study, Barhoumi (2006) chose an arbitrary threshold of 10% to split the sample between high and low inflation regimes. For more accuracy, our study uses a panel threshold framework where a grid search is used to select the appropriate threshold value. In a larger panel-data set including 63 countries over the 1992–2012 period, we find that there are two threshold points identified by the data, allowing us to split our sample into three inflation regimes. When estimating the ERPT for each group of countries, we point out a strong regime-dependence of pass-through to inflation environment, that is, the class of countries with higher inflation rates experiences the higher degree of ERPT.

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Inflation Dynamics in Tunisia: A Markov-Switching Approach

AbstractThis paper studies the effect of exchange rate pass-through on inflation in Tunisia for the period 2001 to 2009. The objective is to track inflation regimes for the Tunisian economy and to forecast its determinants. Using a Markov-switching approach, the authors identified two main regimes for inflation in Tunisia during this period: a low and stable inflation regime associated with a low pass-through level and a high inflation regime associated with a high pass-through level. To highlight the mechanisms underlying shifts in inflation regimes, the authors used a time-varying probabilities approach and identified a set of variables to assess their effects on inflation in Tunisia. The results show that the price level decreases in response to an increase in interest rates. Along with this, the empirical results provide strong evidence that the industrial production index has a negative and significant effect, as it increases the probability to stay in an inflationary regime and remain at a high pass-through level. The results also show robust support for the hypothesis that the imports increase the probability to stay in a high-inflation regime and maintain a high pass-through level. However, exports increase the probability of staying in a low-inflation regime and maintaining a low pass-through level.

What Causes China's High Inflation? A Threshold Structural Vector Autoregression Analysis

AbstractChina's astonishing economic growth implies a necessity to understand its inflation. The present paper employs threshold nonrecursive structural vector autoregression analysis to explore the asymmetric effects of macro‐variables on inflation in low and high inflation regimes. The empirical evidence demonstrates, first, that the reactions of inflation to various shocks are inflation‐regime‐dependent and asymmetric. Second, monetary policy influences China's high inflation and adjusting the domestic interest rate in China may be an effective way to control inflation in a high inflation regime, but not in a low inflation regime. In a high inflation regime, a high inflation rate may cause the macro‐policy authorities to increase the domestic interest rate, in an attempt to stabilize high inflation. Third, contrary to expectations, the world oil price is not a strong cost‐push factor in a low inflation regime. Oil price increases may increase inflation in a high inflation regime, but there is no such obvious effect in a low inflation regime. Finally, China's nominal effective exchange rate influences inflation in both low and high inflation regimes. A nominal effective exchange rate appreciation might be effective in controlling domestic inflation in both regimes.

Expectations and the quantity equation – evidence from Eastern European countries

This article analyses the usefulness of the quantity equation from the financial market’s view. We use more than 10 000 forecasts of financial analysts concerning projections of the growth rate of money supply, prices and real output for six Central and Eastern European countries to test whether they are internally consistent with the quantity equation. In particular, we report that forecasts are consistent with the quantity equation in high-inflation countries and high-inflation regimes.

Money-based Inflation Risk Indicator:a regime Switching Model

We examine the relationship between probability of large fluctuations of inflation rate and monetary developments. With this purpose we identify the periods of high inflation regime for the cross-section of 15 transition economies. The obtained results are used to estimate the panel probit models that capture the relationship between probability of transition to a high inflation regime and money growth. We calculate the conditional probability of transition to a high inflation regime that may be regarded as a money-based inflation risk indicator for Russia.

The Prospect and Transmission Dynamics of China's Inflation to Korea

Korea’s consumer prices have increased beyond the inflation target (3.0±1%), which has resulted in growing concerns over inflation. - The increase is attributable to price run-ups in agricultural and livestock products, driven by a sharp increase in global commodity prices, extreme weather, and the spread of foot and mouth disease. The upward trend of major price indices in China, Korea’s largest trading partner, is heightening worries over price instability. - The significant rise in Chinese consumer prices is due to surges in housing rents and food expenses (agricultural and livestock products). - In addition, increases in the prices of international raw materials and in the wages of Chinese workers are adding to supply-side inflationary pressure. Given the large amount of Korea’s imports from China, a rise in production costs in China can result in inflation in Korea. - Higher production costs in China, stemming from accelerated commodity prices and the policy to raise minimum wages, will push up the price of imported goods to Korea, and thus affect Korea’s consumer prices. - The appreciation of the yuan is also driving up Chinese export prices. It is found that Chinese inflation in 2010 preceded inflation in Korea by about seven months. - China entered a high inflation phase in February 2010; Korea began experiencing a high inflation regime in September of the same year. Empirical analysis reveals that Chinese inflation had no significant impact on Korea’s inflation rate in the 1990s, while it became one of the main external causes of Korea’s inflation along with oil prices in the 2000s. - A 1 percent rise in Chinese inflation results in a 0.13 to 0.15 percent increase in Korea’s inflation rate after three months and has persistent effects in Korea. As other emerging economies have also been suffering from rising prices since the second half of 2010, measures to ward off global inflation are necessary. - When there are signs of price instability, micro-policy measures targeting specific markets are required to curb inflation expectations and contingency plans should be devised to stabilize prices as well.

Money Growth and Infl‡ation: Evidence from a Markov Switching Bayesian VAR

We contribute to the empirical debate on the role of money in monetary policy by analysing the features of the relationship between money growth and inflation in a Bayesian Markov Switching framework for a set of four countries, the US, the UK, the Euro area and Japan, over an estimation period spanning from 1960 to 2012. We find that the relationship between money growth and inflation appears to be nonlinear, as our estimation results identify multiple inflation regimes displaying clear and diversified features; moreover, as part of the model's information set, money growth plays a determinant role in the allocation of regimes. We show that observing monetary developments does (slightly) improve the signal of entering a high inflation regime but the influence of money on such signal seems to be relevant mainly in the 70s and the early 80s, i.e. in periods featuring exceptionally high rates of inflation. Our evidence confirms that the relationship between money and inflation appears to be relatively weak during periods featuring low and stable inflation.

Macroeconomic uncertainty, inflation and growth: Regime-dependent effects in the G7

We analyze the causal effects of real and nominal macroeconomic uncertainty on inflation and output growth by considering whether these effects are cycle phase specific. Employing a bivariate Smooth Transition EGARCH-M model for the G7 countries during 1957–2009, we find strong nonlinearities. First, uncertainty regarding the output growth rate is related with a higher average growth rate mostly in a low-growth regime, supporting the theory of “creative destruction”. Second, higher inflation uncertainty diminishes growth rates, mainly at a high-inflation regime. Finally, real uncertainty has mixed effects on average inflation, while the effect of nominal uncertainty is typically positive, especially so during inflationary periods. Our findings suggest that these relationships are sufficiently complex to require treatment with nonlinear models.

Non-linearities in inflation–growth nexus in the SADC region: A panel smooth transition regression approach

The main objective of central banks around the world is the achievement and maintenance of price stability, which actually creates an environment conducive for faster economic growth. Therefore, it is important for policy makers to understand the relationship between inflation and economic growth in order to make sound policies. If inflation is detrimental to economic growth, then policy makers should aim for low rates of inflation. This leads to a question; how low should the inflation rate be? Previous research in the non-linearities of the inflation–growth relationship has found that a positive relationship exists when the inflation rate is low and a negative relationship when the inflation rate is high. This implies the existence of a threshold level of inflation at which the sign switches. In this paper we use panel data for the period 1980–2008 to examine the inflation–growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and to endogenously determine the threshold level of inflation. To deal with problems of endogeneity and heterogeneity, the paper uses the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method developed by González et al. (2005) to examine the non-linearities in the inflation–growth nexus. This technique further estimates the smoothness of the transition from a low inflation to a high inflation regime. The findings reveal a threshold level of 18.9%, above which inflation is detrimental to economic growth in the SADC region.

Inflation and Inflation Tax in Iran: A Threshold Regression ‘Laffer Curve’ Model

The purpose of this paper is examining the Laffer curve for inflation tax. To do so we have used Hansen (1996, 2000), threshold regression model to study whether a non-linear relationship between inflation Tax and inflation based on two regimes of inflation (low and high inflation regimes). Our findings support a standard Laffer curve shape in Iran with a threshold inflation rate of 15.24 percentage points. In other words, only at inflation below this rate inflation tax will increase as a result of higher inflation.

DOES THE MAGNITUDE OF THE EFFECT OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY ON OUTPUT GROWTH DEPEND ON THE LEVEL OF INFLATION?

A bivariate Markov regime switching model is employed to verify whether the relationship between inflation and inflation uncertainty, or the negative effects of inflation and inflation uncertainty on output growth, vary with the level of inflation. Inflation and inflation uncertainty are positively correlated in the high-inflation regime. In contrast, in the low-inflation regime, the direct effect of inflation on output growth is insignificant, but the indirect negative effect on growth via inflation uncertainty is highly significant. The negative influence in a high-inflation regime is 2.664 times greater than that in a low-inflation regime.

ALTA INFIAÇAO E ESTABILIZAÇÃO: GRADUALÍSIMO OU TRATAMENTO DE CHOQUE

Um regime de Alta Inflação distingue-se de um regime de estabilidade de preços pela adoção de múltiplas moedas-de-conta em contratos futuros. Diferentes grupos sociais recebem o direito de fixar direitos e obrigações em moedas que reflitam as preferências de cada um. Em resultado, emergem demandas inconsistentes pelo produto social. A estabilização passa, então, necessariamente pela reforma monetária que reconstrua a unicidade do sistema de contratos. Planos de estabilização envolvem: 1º repressão monetária e/ou 2º acordo político. O trabalho debate a viabilidade de cada uma dessas condições.

Understanding the money–prices relationship under low and high inflation regimes: Argentina 1977–2006

We study the regime dependence of the money–prices relationship, focusing on Argentina's experience over the last 30 years. Using descriptive and cointegration analysis we find that proportionality holds for the high inflation period but weakens once inflation lowers. Money velocity correlates positively with money growth under high inflation, while this relation reverts under low inflation. VAR analysis allows to identify the key role of inflation expectations in driving the short-run dynamics of the money growth–inflation relationship under high inflation. Although this relationship weakens under low inflation, money continues to play a role in explaining inflation dynamics in Argentina.

Inflation regimes and the stability of the pass-through of wages to consumer prices in Canada

This article has formally identified distinct historical inflation regimes in Canada since 1961 in order to facilitate an investigation of the impact of regime changes on the wage-price dynamics in the economy. Both in and out-of-sample evidence suggest that wage growth exerts an influence on inflation only during a high-inflation regime but inflation exerts a more systematic and quantitatively stronger influence on wage growth regardless of the prevailing inflation regime. Overall, the results do not support either the ‘cost-push’ view of inflation or the ‘new view’ that claims that increased globalization during the 1990s has reduced the feedback from wage growth to inflation by weakening the bargaining power of workers.

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: From Sticky Inflation to Sticky Prices

The New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) model of inflation dynamics based on forward‐looking expectations is of great theoretical significance in monetary policy analysis. Empirical studies, however, often find that backward‐looking inflation inertia dominates the dynamics of the short‐run aggregate supply curve. This inconsistency is examined by investigating multiple structural changes in the NKPC for the U.S. between 1960 and 2005, employing both inflation expectations survey data and a rational expectations approximation. We find that forward‐looking behavior plays a smaller role during the high and volatile inflation regime to 1981 than in the subsequent period of moderate inflation, providing empirical support for sticky price models over the last two decades. A break in the intercept of the NKPC is also identified around 2001 and this may be associated with U.S. monetary policy in that period.

Central bank independence and price stability: evidence from OECD-countries

In this paper, we use a non-parametric regression method to compare the transition process from high to low inflation with the implementation dates of central bank independence reforms. In most countries, price stability is achieved before more independence is given to the central bank. Moreover, for those countries which have implemented a central bank independence reform under a high inflation regime, no evidence is found that the reforms have actually led to price stability. This suggests that the credibility of a low inflation goal can be achieved without institutional reforms which grant the central bank more independence from the political policymakers.