High Hazard Research Articles

A Transtensional Fault Zone on the Northeastern Margin of the Tibetan Plateau: Millennial Earthquake Recurrence and High Earthquake Hazard

AbstractThe seismic gaps between ruptures of large earthquakes in tectonically active deformation zones are usually considered to be dangerous areas for future earthquakes. The Western Tianzhu Basin fault (WTBF) with an oblique normal motion is located in the middle of the Tianzhu seismic gap between the M 8.5 Haiyuan and M 8.0 Gulang earthquakes, NE Tibetan Plateau. The faulting activity of the WTBF is key to understanding the seismic hazards of the seismic gap, but it remains poorly constrained. Using satellite images, field investigations, paleoseismic trenching, and radiocarbon dating, we found that the WTBF produced seven paleoearthquakes since ∼8,000 cal. yr BP, with the latest event occurring at 1,005 ± 584 cal. yr BP, yielding an average recurrence interval of 1,102 ± 100 yr and a coefficient of variation of 0.38, indicating that it features a millennial quasi‐periodic recurrence. Based on the comparative analysis of geometry, kinematics, and tectonic activity, we suggest that the Tianzhu seismic gap can be divided into three sections and is characterized by a segmented rupture pattern. Among them, the WTBF and Jinqianghe fault exhibit similar geometry and kinematics and together form the ∼55 km‐long Jinqianghe‐Tianzhu transtensional fault zone (JTTFZ) that is capable of producing earthquakes of Mw 7.2. Given the long elapsed time since the latest event and strong seismogenic potential, it is believed that the JTTFZ poses a high seismic hazard. Our results enhance the understanding of the high seismic hazard in seismic gaps and provide new insights into the seismic rupture behavior in the NE Tibetan Plateau.

Flood Susceptibility Mapping Using Analytic Hierarchy Process and Geographic Information System in Baitarani Basin of Odisha, India

Baitarani, the 6th largest river basin in Odisha, eastern India, faces water related challenges in its catchments. As one of the most frequent environmental disasters, floods are consistently cited in hotspots of the eastern region in India. Hence, in this study, flood susceptibility maps were generated for Baitarani River basin by using analytical hierarchy process technique and geographic information system. Eleven thematic maps of topographic ruggedness index, topographic wetness index, stream power index, elevation, lithology, soil, slope, drainage density, distance from drainage network, land use/land cover and normalized difference vegetation index were prepared for flood vulnerability mapping. The themes were assigned suitable weights depending on relative influence of each of the themes on flood risk. The results indicated that 87% of the basin falls under intermediate flood susceptibility zone, while 10% is classified under high flood hazard zone. Areas in the lower elevation catchment, particularly those with flat topography near the coastline, were identified as being highly susceptible to flooding. The impacts of severe flooding in the basin are most pronounced in specific blocks in Jajpur district (Jajpur, Dasarathpur, and Korei blocks), Bhadrak district (Dhamnagar and Bhandaripokhari blocks), and Anandapur block in the Keonjhar district of Odisha. Additionally, changes in land use/land cover during 1995-2020 revealed 8% decline in agricultural land and 13.93% increase in fallow land in the area. The outcomes of this research can help researchers, planners and managers in managing natural resources, find locations that could be vulnerable to flooding, and lessen the damage.

Aquatic hazard and risk posed by four pesticides detected in waterways discharging to the Great Barrier Reef, Australia: Part 2. Hazard and risk assessment

Pesticide active ingredients (PAIs) are regularly detected in the rivers, creeks, wetlands, and inshore waterways that discharge to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) lagoon. Pesticide active ingredients detected above ecologically protective concentrations may pose a hazard and risk to aquatic species. The ability to assess this hazard and risk is reliant on the availability of water quality guidelines, which are only available for a limited number of PAIs detected in GBR catchment waterways. Unendorsed guideline values, known as ecotoxicity threshold values (ETVs) were developed in part one of this study for active ingredients in two fungicides (4-hydroxychlorothalonil (fungicide degradate) and carbendazim) and two insecticides (dimethoate and methoxyfenozide) that are commonly detected in GBR catchment waterways. In the current study, the hazard and risk posed by these PAIs was assessed by comparing the ETVs to environmental monitoring data from the Great Barrier Reef Catchment Loads Monitoring Program. Exceedances of the concentrations that should protect 99 % of aquatic species (i.e., PC99) were observed for all four pesticides. Detected concentrations of 4-hydroxychlorothalonil, carbendazim and methoxyfenozide exceeded the PC95 ETV, however no exceedances of the PC95 were observed for dimethoate. The hazard quotient (HQ) method was used to identify high hazard sites across the GBR catchment area. In total, six sites were identified as having concentrations that exceeded the PC95 ETVs. For 4-hydroxychlorothalonil, the risk to aquatic species based on the 95th percentile concentrations ranged from 3 to 13 %, 1 to 8 % for carbendazim and 2 to 8 % for methoxyfenozide. Detected concentrations of carbendazim were two orders of magnitude higher than concentrations that are reported to induce behavioural effects in some fish species. Considering that detected concentrations of three of the four PAIs individually pose a potential risk to aquatic species, their contributions to pesticide mixture toxicity should be further assessed.

Hydrochemical Characteristics and Spatial Variability in Coastal Aquifers Southern IraqUtilizing a GIS Technique

The present study investigates water quality regarding drinking and irrigation supplies by gathering and analyzing twelve groundwater samples south of Basrah, south Iraq. Many wells in the area concerned are exploited mainly for various industrial and agricultural activities, impacting the ground water quality. The standard guidelines recommended by the Iraqi Quality Standard limits and the World Health Organization have been used to determine the suitability of drinking. The physicochemica analyses showed that all sampled waters are unsuitable for the drinking supply due to high total dissolved solids (TDS) levels reaching 12925 mg/L. Four valuable indices have been applied for estimating the irrigated water quality, namely, the sodium adsorption ratio (SAR), the soluble sodium percentage (SSP%), the magnesium hazard (MH%), and Kelly’s ratio (KR%). The results of water class as regards the percent of samples showed: SAR results, 25% excellent water, 41.7% good water, and 33.3% doubtful water; SSP% results, 16.7 % good water, 75% permissible water, and 8.3 % doubtful water; MH% results, 100% suitable irrigated water; and KR% results show 41.7% suitable water and 58.3 % unsuitable water. The USSL salinity diagram (Wilcox) result revealed 83.3 % of samples fall in very high salinity-very high sodium hazard class C4S4, and 16.7 % of samples fall in very high salinity-high sodium hazard class C4S3 and very high salinity-medium sodium hazard class C4S2, respectively. Increasing salinity of coastal aquifers has impacted sources such as seawater intrusion and intensive irrigation, and usages of excessive fertilizers and herbicides can largely pollute the groundwater quality.

Assessment of landslide Possibility Index and Rockfall Hazard Rating System for Slopes in Qaywan Mountain, Sulaimani Governorate, Northeastern Iraq

The current study includes assessing road risks using a system Landslide Possibility Index (LPI) and Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) analysis along the Qaywan Mountain (anticline) main road 20 km north of SulaimaniGovernorate. Slope stability assessments consisted of seventeen stations along the main road in the study area. Along the outcropped rock units represented by formations, Balambo, Sarmord, Kometan, and Shiranish, a thorough discontinuity assessment and a regional survey of slopes were carried out. Along the cut slopes, rockfall is the primary type of failure, in addition to possibility types of landslide failures in the studied area is plane sliding, wedge sliding, and toppling because cutting rocks to build roads, slope direction and slope angle, dip and dip direction of discontinuities. The (LPI) indicates all the slopes studied in 17 sites in the surveyed area along the road were classified as high hazard. According to the analysis results of the RHRS, the score ranges between 177 and 375. Site no. 5 (375) has the highest rating value indicating a moderate hazard that requires remedial measures to be taken with a moderate level of urgency and site no.8 has the lowest value noted (177). It is the only site that falls under this rating, which is classified as a low hazard and slopes do not require detailed studies.

Flood hazard assessment using machine learning and hydrodynamic modeling: case study in the Vu Ga–Thu Bon basin in Vietnam

ABSTRACT The objective of this study was the construction of a theoretical framework to evaluate flood hazards by integrating machine learning and hydrodynamic modeling in Vietnam's Vu Gia–Thu Bon basin. MIKE FLOOD was used to simulate historical floods in 2017 in order to obtain flood depth and velocity. Support vector machine-stochastic gradient descent (SVM-SGD), decision trees (DT), and dagging (DA) were used to determine flood susceptibility. Flood hazard was constructed by combining the flood depth, velocity, and susceptibility using the analytic hierarchy process technique. The statistical indices AUC, RMSE, MAE, and NASH were used to evaluate the precision of the hydrodynamic and machine learning models. The results showed that hydrodynamic modeling was highly accurate, with a NASH value of 0.86. The proposed models achieved AUC values of 0.98 for SVM-SGD, 0.93 for DT, and 0.92 for DA. The results showed that 7.59% of the flood zones is located in the very low flood hazard zone, 108.2 km2 in the low flood hazard zone, 24.59% in the moderate flood hazard zone, 22.53% in the high flood hazard zone, and 10.01% in the very high flood hazard zone.

The changing social vulnerability in Shanghai during 2000–2020 and its implications for risk management

Risk dynamics are driven not only by changes in hazard and exposure, but also the changing social vulnerability along with urban development, aging, renewal, and adaptation planning. However, there has been limited research on the spatial and temporal changes in social vulnerability, particularly at a fine scale in urban settings. To bridge this gap, our study developed a framework to consistently evaluate social vulnerability. Using Shanghai as a case study, the framework was applied to assess the social vulnerability at a township level for the years 2000, 2010, and 2020. The results revealed that the social vulnerability index decreased in 99.56 % of the townships in Shanghai from 2000 to 2020. However, there were notable variations among the four primary sub-indexes as demographic sub-index, particularly regarding an aging population, displayed a strong increase aggravating social vulnerability, in contrast to an overall decline trend of the other three sub-indexes of educational, residential, and economic. Therefore, the social vulnerability reduced along with socioeconomic development while an aging society posed a new challenge. Furthermore, 32 townships were identified with a notable rising demographic sub-index, a high flood hazard, and a low capability of disaster reliefs, demonstrating social vulnerability should be comprehensively addressed aligning with other challenges. The study highlighted the need to consider the dynamics of social vulnerability in disaster risk reduction strategies and the importance of addressing emerging challenges, such as an aging population, in urban vulnerability.

Agent-based modelling of evacuation scenarios for a landslide-generated tsunami in Milford Sound, New Zealand

Agent-based modelling is a useful tool for evacuation planning as it can increase understanding of the factors affecting potential evacuation outcomes. In New Zealand, Milford Sound has been shown to have a high risk from landslide-generated tsunami, with an estimated 1-in-1000-year wave runup of ∼17 m arriving on shore within 2–7 min. With an annual average of >1500 people visiting a day, there is potential for widespread loss of life. However, the number of people present varies substantially with time of day and season, yet how this affects the ability to evacuate remains unknown. This research developed an agent-based model to understand how many people can be safely evacuated in Milford Sound and explored how the number of people initially exposed affected the evacuation outcome alongside the effect of potential changes to evacuation messaging. Assuming a 17 m wave, the results suggest that currently no one can safely evacuate before the shortest wave arrival time regardless of the number of people present. Altering evacuation messaging results in minimal gains, with only ∼5 % of the exposed population reaching safety in time. This work demonstrates the importance of evacuation modelling for understanding risk in isolated tourism destinations where the population exposure can fluctuate dramatically across multiple timescales. Accounting for changing population exposure is essential to understand whether evacuation is a suitable risk treatment and can provide valuable information for determining safe levels of population exposure in locations with high hazard but limited evacuation options.

Respiratory and physical health consequences in older adults in a high-risk volcanic area: Comparison of two rural villages

Introduction Volcanism is an important natural producer of pollution that impacts health and the quality of the environment. Lung changes caused by exposure to volcanoes have been previously studied. However, limited information exists regarding the effects of prolonged exposure to volcanic compounds. So, this study aimed to analyze the pulmonary effects and stress tolerance in older adults for chronic exposure to the volcanic ashes of the Galeras volcano. Methods A descriptive cross-sectional study of association included rural inhabitants aged over 60 years from Genoy, a village located in a high volcanic hazard zone of Galeras volcano, 2603 meters above sea level. Those in this group, called exposed, were contrasted with a sample of El Encano inhabitants with similar socioeconomic and cultural characteristics. Both villages belong to the rural area of San Juan de Pasto in Colombia. Results It was found that of 31 exposed participants, 18 had obstructive alteration, and in the control group, it was found that of 31 subjects, 6 presented this alteration. The difference between the two groups was significant (p<0.001). A similar situation occurred with distal airway obstruction assessed with the forced expiratory flow of 25–75%. No significant differences were found in restrictive alteration between the exposed and unexposed groups. Conclusion Chronic exposure to volcanic compounds has generated obstructive changes in the population, and these changes were greater in number and severity than those in the control group of unexposed people.

Experimental response of thin RC walls seismically strengthened with steel plates

In some Latin American countries, and especially in Colombia, the industrialized system of thin and slender walls has been chosen for the construction of residential buildings, thus reducing costs and increasing efficiency of construction processes. However, these walls differ considerably from traditional concrete wall system due to their reduced thickness, reinforcement detailing, and use of nonductile electro-welded reinforcement, which increases their seismic vulnerability, especially in tall buildings and in high seismic hazard zones. Strengthening proposals for walls with these specific characteristics of the industrialized system are scarce; therefore, it is necessary to evaluate alternatives that allow for improving their seismic performance. This article presents the experimental response of a thin wall that was brought to failure and subsequently repaired and strengthened with externally bonded steel plates to evaluate the effectiveness of the repair process and the strengthening. Additionally, the results of two thin walls externally strengthened with steel plates and bolts are presented, and their response is compared with that of the original walls. All the specimens were subjected to the same type of test under cyclical lateral load and constant axial load until failure. The behavior observed in the rehabilitated wall showed that it is possible to restore the stiffness of a wall that has previously been brought to a severe level of damage and increase its displacement capacity with the strengthening. In strengthened walls without previous damage, the displacement capacity was increased between 25 % and 43 %, reaching a roof drift of up to 2.0 % without a significant increase in resistance. A noticeable increase was obtained in the amount of dissipated energy (greater than 80 %), and the rupture of web reinforcement and buckling of longitudinal reinforcement of the boundaries were delayed for average drifts of 43 % and 32 % higher than in the original walls, respectively.

Code-based brittle capacity models for seismic assessment of pre-code RC buildings: comparison and consequences on retrofit

The existing Reinforced Concrete (RC) buildings stock is often characterized by a significant seismic vulnerability, due to the absence of capacity design principles, even in regions with high seismic hazard, such as Italy. Approximately 67% of existing RC buildings in Italy have been designed without considering seismic actions (GLD), resulting in very low transverse reinforcement amount in beams and, particularly, in columns. Additionally, beam-column joints typically totally lack stirrups. Consequently, shear failures under seismic actions are very likely for this pre-code building typology, often limiting their seismic capacity. However, the assessment of shear failures in beams/columns or joints varies significantly from code to code worldwide. The main goal of this work is to quantify the impact of different code-based brittle capacity models on the seismic capacity assessment and retrofit, focusing on GLD Italian pre-1970 RC buildings. This comparative analysis is carried out by first considering three current codes, emphasizing their, even significant, differences: European (EN 1998-3-1. 2005), Italian (D.M. 2018), and American (ASCE SEI/41 2017) standards. Then, shear capacity models prescribed by the current drafts of the next generation of Eurocodes are implemented and compared to the current models. The assessment includes: (i) a parametric comparison among models; (ii) the evaluation of case-study buildings capacity in their as-built condition and after shear strengthening interventions. The latter is performed on 3D “bare” models, due to the lack of practical guidance in most codes on modelling masonry infills.

Raspberry Pi 3 Based Cloud Supported Temperature Controlled Spectrophotometer Design

Spectrophotometers are a kind of photometers that are used to find the amount of substance in the solution. Spectrophotometers detect the amount of radiation that is not absorbed by the solution in the sample chamber and gives information about the amount of substance in the sample. Spectrophotometers are used in many different fields such as chemistry, medicine, geology, environmental engineering and agriculture. Samples that will directly affect people, such as wastewater, drinking water, pharmaceuticals, are analyzed with high accuracy and possible hazards are avoided. In this study, a device that can be used in the detection of Salmonella bacteria is modeled. In addition, the fact that the heater unit of the device is on the test mechanism eliminates the need for heating in the external environment and the test data can be saved in the cloud environment over the internet connection, which is the novelty of this study. A spectrophotometer device was developed using Raspberry Pi 3 and Python software language. A 470 nm optical filter was used in the device. In addition to the features of standard spectrophotometers, the heating feature that can keep the sample temperature at the desired value has been added. This feature has been developed using the on-off logic method. Linear regression of optical measurements, R2 value was calculated as 0.9982 in density tests between 0.1 gram and 0.2 gram. The device was developed with a Raspberry Pi 3 minicomputer, it does not need an external computer for use. Thanks to the internet connection ability of Raspberry Pi 3, the analysis results are transferred to the cloud environment, allowing the user to see the results even when they are not at the device.

Photodegradation of Amoxicillin in Aqueous Systems: A Review.

Amoxicillin (AMX) is utilized in the treatment of several infectious diseases, and its concentration in wastewater has increased quite significantly over the years, posing high health hazards for humans and other living organisms. Investigations are in progress globally to eliminate AMX and other related pollutants using several methods that include adsorption, photolysis, photocatalytic degradation, photoelectrocatalytic degradation, and electrochemical conversion. AMX can be eliminated efficiently from the environment using photodegradation, either by photolysis or a photocatalytic process. Several types of semiconductor NMs have been used to eliminate AMX and other related drugs present in wastewater. This review spans the photodegradation studies conducted during the years 2018-2024 to degrade and eliminate AMX in aquatic systems. Several studies have been reported to eliminate AMX from different water streams. These studies are categorized into TiO2-containing and non-TiO2-based catalysts for better comparison. A section on photolysis is also included, showing the use of UV alone or with H2O2 or PS without using any nanomaterial. A tabulated summary of both types of catalysts showing the catalysts, reaction conditions, and degradation efficiency is presented. Researchers have used a variety of reaction conditions that include radiation types (UV, solar, and visible), pH of the solution, concentration of AMX, number of nanomaterials, presence of other additives and activators such as H2O2 as oxidant, and the influence of different salts like NaCl and CaCl2 on the photodegradation efficiency. TiO2 was the best nanomaterial found that achieved the highest degradation of AMX in ultraviolet irradiation. TiO2 doped with other nanomaterials showed very good performance under visible light. WO3 was also used by several investigators and found quite effective for AMX degradation. Other metal oxides used for AMX elimination were derived from molybdenum, zinc, manganese, copper, cerium, silver, etc. Some researchers have used UV and/or visible irradiation or sunlight, without using solid catalysts, in the presence of oxidants such as H2O2. A summarized description of earlier published reviews is also presented.

Crossed by the border: children’s lived experiences with flooding in an urbanized transborder watershed

ABSTRACT This article analyzes the differential effect of the US-Mexico border on the lived experience of children exposed to flooding risk in an urbanized transborder watershed. The central argument is that this geopolitical border is an institution generative of social and spatial processes that create and thrive on differences and expose children on both sides of the border to high but unequal hazard levels. We pose that children’s bifurcated experiences with rain evince the border’s structuring power as a supra institution producing a socio-spatial regime that enables environmental inequities producing disparate representations of place. Understanding children’s lived experiences is critical to reducing their vulnerability in a highly integrated cross-border urbanization. Framed as a case study based on qualitative data obtained through narratives and visual elicitation techniques, the analysis reveals children’s experiences with flooding and associated hazards that have not been exposed in prior border research and have important implications for integrated disaster management, environmental justice, and resilience in border regions and cities.

Flood Modelling of Madi River Using HEC-RAS by Rain on Grid Approach

Indispensable for prognosticating flood impact in areas with limited data availability, reliable flood models are crucial for the analysis and mitigation of flood hazard. This study provides insight to accurately analyse flood scenarios by preparing a well calibrated 2D hydraulic model in HEC-RAS along with the Rain on Grid approach, which is subsequently used for hazard map preparation of Madi River. Hazard classification of flood depth indicated that for a 20-year return period, Moderate hazard levels covered 16.499%, High hazard levels covered 14.831%, and Very High hazard levels covered 68.670% of the total inundated area with reference to the depth hazard categories. Since, significant portion of the inundated area is classified as Very High Hazard; the finding of this research emphasizes the need of effective mitigation measure and provides essential insights crucial for flood risk assessment.

Downstream impacts of dam breach using HEC-RAS: a case of Budhigandaki concrete arch dam in central Nepal

Studies on concrete dam breach are limited compared to earthen and other types of dams. With an increase in the construction of concrete dams, particularly in the developing world, it is imperative to have a better understanding of the dam breach phenomena and the identification of the most influential breach parameters. This study aims to contribute to this gap by taking the case of the concrete arch dam proposed for the 1200 MW Budhigandaki Hydropower Project located in central Nepal. This study carries special significance for Nepal, primarily because of the increasing number of under construction and proposed large dams for water resources development in the country. We carry out dam breach analysis of the Budhigandaki dam using HEC-RAS 2D model to calculate the flood discharge peaks, time to peak, water surface elevation and the extent of inundation for two scenarios (with and without probable maximum flood) to estimate the damage on four downstream settlements. We carry out sensitivity analysis of the breach parameters on the flood magnitudes and severity. Results show that all the study locations lie in the high flood hazard zone. Flood peaks can reach as high as 286,000 m3s− 1 to 511,000 m3s− 1 in the considered settlements. The time to peak ranges from 11.3 to 17 h after the breach at these locations. We estimate that if a breach should happen, it would most likely inundate around 150,000 buildings, impact nearly 672,000 lives and flood 3,500 km of road downstream. Furthermore, dam breach elevation is found to be the most sensitive parameter to downstream floods. Hence, rather than structural measures, it is recommended that non-structural measures are implemented for minimizing the impacts of flood disasters at the study locations. The findings could be a useful reference for future dam projects in Nepal and other areas with similar hydrological and topographical conditions.

ANFIS-AMAL: Android Malware Threat Assessment Using Ensemble of ANFIS and GWO

Abstract The Android malware has various features and capabilities. Various malware has distinctive characteristics. Ransomware threatens financial loss and system lockdown. This paper proposes a threat-assessing approach using the Grey Wolf Optimizer (GWO) to train and tune the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) to categorize Android malware accurately. GWO improves efficiency and efficacy in ANFIS training and learning for Android malware feature selection and classification. Our approach categorizes Android malware as a high, moderate, or low hazard. The proposed approach qualitatively assesses risk based on critical features and threats. Our threat-assessing mechanism’s scale categorizes Android malware. The proposed approach resolves the issue of overlapping features in different types of malware. Comparative results with other classifiers show that the ensemble of GWO is effective in the training and learning process of ANFIS and thus achieves 95% F-score, 94% specificity, and 94% accuracy. The ensemble makes fast learning possible and improves classification accuracy.

Timing and characteristics of co-seismic surface ruptures in the Yadong rift, southern Tibet

The Yadong-Gulu rift (YGR) is the most prominent and seismically active of the seven main ∼ NS-trending rifts in southern Tibet. Although the morphology of the southern YGR clearly indicates it has witnessed large earthquakes in the past, and despite its significant late Quaternary throw rates of ∼1 mm/yr, no large historical or instrumental earthquakes have been reported, including in the southernmost Pagri half-graben, in contrast to the northern part of the rift which is highly seismically active. Here, geomorphic characteristics helped us constrain the timing of a paleoearthquake that produced surface ruptures along the Pagri half-graben, used to document its past activity and evaluate its seismic hazard. We demonstrate that the co-seismic surface ruptures extend for ∼65 km along the Yadong normal fault, with a maximum vertical displacement ranging from 2 to 4.0 ± 0.1 m. Based on empirical relationships between magnitude, surface rupture length, and fault displacement, we suggest that this event may correspond to a Mw6.9–7.2 earthquake. Combined with previous studies, our radiocarbon (14C) and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) ages from three pits within the earthquake wedge across the surface ruptures constrain the paleoearthquake timing at 3470-2056 years BP. We suggest that the southern YGR currently has a high regional seismic hazard for a Mw6.8–7.1 earthquake, considering the significant throw rates and long timespan since the last strong event. Furthermore, we suggest that such different seismic activity and throw/extension rates between the southern and northern YGR may be explained by different upper crustal rheology behavior and mid-crustal structure.

Overriding Plate Deformation Controls Inferences of Interseismic Coupling Along the Himalayan Megathrust

AbstractThe seismic hazard along the Himalayan arc remains a focus of discussion due to its huge potential societal impact. Taking advantage of modern, dense geodetic observations, several attempts have been made to provide a clear picture of the present‐day rate of strain accumulation caused by interseismic coupling on the Main Himalayan Thrust (MHT). However, there are differing opinions regarding the interpretation of spatial variation in interseismic coupling along some parts of the arc. Critically, the resolution of heterogeneity of coupling is limited due to sparse geodetic observations in some areas. In the present work, we use an updated compilation of all available Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data along the Himalayan arc and a suite of kinematic block models to account for deformation within the overriding plate to characterize the status of interseismic plate coupling. Our results show that the MHT is highly coupled (>0.8) along its entire length and the coupling distribution is nearly binary along‐dip. This translates to a high seismic hazard in the densely populated Indo‐Gangetic plains with a seismic moment accumulation of one Mw 8.7 megathrust earthquake per 100 years. Our results suggest that previously inferred low coupling zones along the MHT are possible manifestations of block modeling artifacts, where the fault segments in the overriding plate control the megathrust slip distribution more strongly than structures within the Indian lithosphere. This result highlights a strong need for better characterization of deforming structures in the overriding plate within the Himalayas and southern Tibetan plateau.

SITE-SPECIFIC DISAGGREGATION ANALYSIS OF RECENT EARTHQUAKE ON THE AMBON COAST

Seismic activity in the eastern region of Indonesia, particularly in Ambon, has been a matter of great concern because of its high tectonic activity. The devastating magnitude 6.5 earthquake in September 2019, which resulted in fatalities and significant damage, highlighted the region’s vulnerability and emphasized the importance of understanding the area’s seismic hazards. Although previous studies have been conducted, this study aims to fill critical gaps in the literature by using the latest seismic data until 2022 and updated attenuation equations. Disaggregation analysis is employed to identify ground motion characteristics, that are crucial for calculating synthetic ground motion acceleration. Under risk-targeted maximum considered earthquake (MCER) conditions, the study results show a peak ground acceleration of 0.444 g, with spectral acceleration at 0.2 s reaching 1.093 g, which decreases to 0.350 g at 1.0 s. Notably, background earthquake sources play a dominant role in contributing to the region’s high seismic hazard potential. The results of this study highlight the urgency of updating Indonesia’s national seismic hazard map. The study also recommends future studies to explore additional parameters of newly discovered faults to enhance understanding of fault movements and their impacts in the study area.