High Dependency Ratio Research Articles

Variance of dependency ratio in Baghdad governorate and its relation to the social variables of the population for 2016

The subject of population support is one of the most important topics in the geography of the population as it shows the amount of burden on the workforce in society and reflects the balance or lack of balance among population groups. According to the ratio of gender and age groups and their relation to social variables. The research was based on three axes, the first dealt with the variation in the dependency ratio, the second studied the ratio of the type of dependents and dependents and the third the social variables related to dependency. The most important findings of the study were the high dependency ratio in the rural districts of the governorate, in addition to the fact that the proportion of the type of the unemployed surpassed that of the dependents, as well as the low percentage of the population (15-94) years, indicating the high rate of support in the districts of Sadr and Abu Ghraib and Mahmudiyah.

Asymmetric Price Transmission and Rent‐seeking in Road Fuel Markets: A Comparative Study of South Africa and Selected Eurozone Countries

AbstractThis paper presents the first‐ever analysis of South African and Eurozone road fuel markets for the possibility that firms may be manipulating the tax system to conceal rent‐seeking behavior using the nonlinear ARDL model recently advanced by Shin et al. (). The paper also examines these markets for asymmetric price adjustment following changes in crude oil costs in the aftermath of the 2007–2008 Global Financial Crisis. Monthly data for gasoline, automotive diesel and costs of imported crude oil from November 2004 to August 2016 were used. The results indicate that while the Eurozone road fuel markets are fraught with the problems of long‐run rent‐seeking, rockets and feathers effect, and the possibility that firms may be exploiting the tax system to conceal rent‐seeking behaviors, the South African markets are free from these problems. Even though South Africa and the Eurozone countries have high oil import dependency ratios, this paper shows that government regulatory activities somewhat account for the difference in market outcomes.

Relationship between maternal, household, and socio-economic characteristics and household food security in Aceh, Indonesia

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between maternal, household and socio-economic characteristics and household food security in Aceh Province, Indonesia.Design/methodology/approachThe data used are cross-section, secondary data from the Economic Census of Indonesia in 2016 (BPS, 2016) from 23 districts/cities. The central message of the present empirical analysis is that relatively simple indicators perform well in locating food security.FindingsThe analysis proves that mother’s age has a significant effect on average calorie intake at the household level. This may be due to the fact that mother’s age plays an important role in the provision of proper food to her family. Higher-aged mothers can understand better about the food quality and requirement for the family as compared to low-aged mother. Environmental factors like access to safe water and better sanitation facilities within housing premises indirectly enhance the absorptive capacity of available food intake. Thus, environmental factors could play an important role in food security through calorie intake, irrespective of economic status of the household. This analysis further strengthens the earlier findings that higher food intake availability alone may not lead to improved health outcome, unless measures are taken to improve access to safe water and sanitation. The contribution of dependency ratio in per capita calorie intake also appeared to be significant in this study. This shows that high dependency ratio reduces the per capita calorie intake due to a larger share in food items among households.Originality/valueNo previous study has comprehensively studied the relationship between maternal, household, and socio-economic characteristics and household food security, especially in Aceh, Indonesia.

Aging in South Asia: challenges and opportunities

PurposeThe countries that make up South Asia have young but rapidly aging populations. The purpose of this paper is to investigate some of the challenges that this rapid aging creates for societies and organizations in South Asia. It also points out how, properly managed, aging populations can create multiple opportunities for societies and organizations alike.Design/methodology/approachThe paper uses secondary data about the aging situation globally. It pays special attention to the demographic situation in South Asian countries and uses as examples policies dealing with aging populations in other countries that have gone through demographic transitions in the recent past.FindingsAging populations are bringing about numerous challenges in the region, including rising costs for pensions and healthcare, higher dependency ratios, and changing family dynamics. South Asia will enjoy a one-time demographic dividend. Policy makers and managers need to put the right policies in place to ensure that they take maximum advantage of this opportunity.Research limitations/implicationsThe study is based on secondary data. It is a perspectives piece and does not provide an in-depth study of the specific issues raised.Practical implicationsThe study details how organizations can best manage this transition. This includes planning for a multigenerational workforce, providing accommodations for older workers, and fostering mentoring, knowledge transfer, cross-training and mixed-age work teams.Social implicationsThis study analyzes some of the social issues that arise because of aging populations, such as the challenge of creating pension and healthcare systems, dealing with a rising old age dependency ratio, and dealing with a gradual transition to single-family households.Originality/valueThis is one of the first studies that look at the coming demographic transition in South Asia, and details some of the challenges and opportunities that arise both in terms of policies and managerial implications.

Tackling poverty and inequality among farm households in Bihar: implications for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs)

One of the main goals of SDGs is to remove of the poverty in its all forms and from everywhere. The present study examines the factors that are responsible for rural poverty; the relationship between poverty and inequality; and between poverty and debt-to-assets ratio among farm households in Bihar, one of the economically most backward states in India. We use primary data on consumption, income, and assets for the agricultural year 2010–11. The logit model has been applied to empirically identify the factors responsible for poverty. The study finds a strong positive, correlation between poverty and debtto-assets ratio, but not between inequality and poverty or any impact of inequality on poverty. The results indicate that poverty is more prevalent among the households having little access to land, livestock and other productive assets, low level of education, larger family size, and higher dependency ratio.

Asymmetric adjustment of retail energy prices in Europe: Analysis of structural change and exchange rate dynamics

This paper investigates the roles of structural changes and exchange rates in the relationship between retail energy prices and crude oil costs. Using a dummy variable approach, this paper argues that once the structural change in this relationship is taken into consideration, the empirical results of studies that found evidence in support of asymmetric behavior, which is largely obscured at pump where prices include both tax and duty, no longer hold. Adopting a nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) framework, this paper also shows that studies that failed to account for the exchange rate as part of the marginal cost of importing oil for countries with a high oil import dependency ratio may be misleading. Specifically, the results indicate that once the exchange rate effect is taken into consideration, the possibility of rent-seeking behavior in the gasoline markets of Italy and Spain disappears, while the rockets and feathers effect in the ex-tax gasoline, diesel, domestic heating oil, and industrial fuel oil markets of France, Germany, Italy, and Spain vanishes. Finally, employing instrumental variables and generalized method of moment estimators, this paper further finds that the results are robust and free from endogeneity issues.

Семья для среднедоходных слоев населения: тыл или риск?


 Юлия Павловна Лежнина – к. c. н., старший научный сотрудник, Институт социальной политики, Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», Институт социологии ФНИСЦ РАН, Москва, Россия. Электронная почта: lezhnina@list.ru
 
 В статье на данных мониторинга Института социологии РАН 2016 г., репрезентативных для населения России в целом, рассмотрены социально-демографические особенности среднедоходных слоев населения в целом и отдельных их подгрупп в частности. Особое внимание уделено характеристикам домохозяйств, выступающим факторами потенциальных рисков материального неблагополучия. Выделение среднедоходных слоев осуществлено в рамках относительного подхода к социальной стратификации – через сопоставление среднедушевых доходов индивидов со страновой медианой этого показателя. Продемонстрировано, что среднедоходные слои неоднородны по своему положению и «распадаются» на разные по уязвимости социальные группы. При этом именно между ними пролегает граница условного материального благополучия населения в целом. Нижний сегмент этих слоев, несмотря на то, что его представители обладают доходами, соответствующими условному «среднероссийскому» уровню, скорее балансирует на грани малообеспеченности, и чувствителен к социально-экономической нестабильности. Именно для этой группы социально-демографические характеристики, в первую очередь, высокая иждивенческая нагрузка и большая доля пенсионеров в составе домохозяйства оказываются дополнительными факторами риска. Верхний сегмент среднедоходных слоев населения заметно более благополучен не только в части доходов, но и характеристик, обеспечивающих относительно устойчивые позиции на рынке труда, что позволяет представителям этой группы наращивать ресурс прочности. Показано, что для обеих подгрупп среднедоходных слоев семья влечет дополнительный риск низкого материального статуса, в основном за счет иждивенческой нагрузки. Степень этого риска несколько сглаживается для нижней части группы за счет интегрированности в систему мер государственной социальной политики, а для верхней – общими ресурсами семьи, уровень которых в целом позволяет смягчать социально-экономическую нестабильность. При этом расширенная семья хотя и выступает ресурсом поддержки для среднедоходных слоев, но масштаб этой поддержки ограничен объективными возможностями родственных сетей и характером отношений. В этой связи потенциал соответствующей поддержки для нижнего сегмента среднедоходных слоев заметно ниже, чем для верхнего, что усиливает дифференциацию их положения в кризисных условиях.

Vulnerabilities to flood hazards among rural households in India

Flooding constitutes the most predominant natural disaster in India. The degree and causes of vulnerability to flood risk vary by society, geographical region and over time. The rural people of India are highly vulnerable to flood hazards due to high dependence on natural resources for livelihood and poor socio-economic situations. The information regarding the degree of vulnerability of these people is limited. In order to formulate improved adaption policies and effective programmes to reduce vulnerability, it is crucial to quantify the vulnerability of rural households affected by floods at a regional level. Our study provides insight into the vulnerability of rural households affected by floods in India. We use primary data of 220 flood-prone rural households of Odisha state in India for analysis. The vulnerability is analysed using the Livelihood Vulnerability Index and the Socio-economic Vulnerability Index. Our results show that these households are vulnerable to flood in more than one dimension. Sociodemographic characteristics such as a low literacy rate, a high dependency ratio and a weak housing structure increase these residents’ vulnerability. Access to social networks and social institutions plays a significant role in uplifting poor rural households. Our study concludes that the vulnerability of a household is governed by both non-climatic factors and the incidence of floods. The findings of our study may be considered in developing policies and programmes that will reduce the flood risk. The recommendations we suggested in this study can be applied in other south Asian counties with similar socio-economic profiles.

Market Participation of the Local People in Non-timber Forest Products (NTFPs) in Omo Forest Reserve, Nigeria

Marketing systems for non-timber forest products (NTFPs) have evolved over centuries and are culturally rooted in the traditional practices of local people. Relative to timber marketing, marketing of NTFPs has received little attention. This study assessed the NTFPs market participation behavior of people living in Omo Forest Reserve, Ogun State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from 192 respondents using a multistage sampling procedure and were analyzed using descriptive statistics and a Heckman model. The decision to participate in NTFPs marketing increases with being a female, larger households, greater number of males and females aged 15–64, higher dependency ratios, and being married. Conversely, it decreases with older collectors, higher educational attainment, engagement in farming activities, higher non-farm income, higher per capita land size and farther market distance. Level of market participation was found to be positively and significantly influenced by being married, income from NTFPs, membership of forest users’ association and forest conservation. It is negatively and significantly influenced by being a male, age, household size, education level, livelihood diversification, non-farm income, transportation cost, per capita land size and average market distance.

Timor‐Leste's demographic challenges for environment, peace and nation building

AbstractTimor‐Leste's nation‐building process faces significant demographic challenges because of its current and prospective population dynamics. Based on the 2010 census data this paper projects the demographic structure of Timor‐Leste by 2030 and discusses the impact of the same on peace, development and environmental sustainability. This paper projects that Timor‐Leste's population will increase from 1.06 million in 2010 to 1.82 million in 2030, and because of a slow decline in total fertility rates, its population characteristics will remain that of a very youthful country with an extraordinarily high dependency ratio. Timor‐Leste will have extremely high proportion of excess labour, high concentration of uneducated and jobless youth in small urban areas and an ever‐increasing demand on natural resources in the next two decades. In the context of poor performing domestic economy, very low formal sector employment and weak environmental governance, these challenges may well contribute to social conflict which is evident in the nation's recent past. This paper is an attempt to reflect upon the implications of Timor‐Leste's population dynamics by 2030 on urbanisation, economy (labour market) and the environment which tend to have a strong relationship with social stability.

Quantifying household vulnerability triggered by drought: evidence from rural India

Drought is a complex, slow-onset phenomenon that imposes serious challenges on human beings and ecosystems. The vulnerability associated with drought may vary at different social, geographical and temporal scales. These differences emphasize the need for regional-level vulnerability assessments, which in turn helps to formulate efficient adaptation policies and strategies that are suitable for the region to mitigate the drought risk. The objective of this paper is to quantify the livelihood and socio-economic vulnerability of rural households that are affected by drought in rural India. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index were applied to analyse the vulnerability of rural households. A sample size of 157 rural households from the state of Odisha in India was surveyed in 2015. Socio-demographic characteristics such as low literacy rates, high dependency ratios and weak housing structures make people more vulnerable, whereas access to social networks plays a significant role in supporting poor rural households. The research concludes that the impacts of drought make people who are already vulnerable due to poverty, inequality and marginalization even more vulnerable. The outcomes of this study may be considered in formulating effective coping strategies and policies that may help mitigate the drought risk. The findings and recommendations of this study will find applicability in other rural, natural resource-dependent countries with similar socio-economic profiles such as other south Asian countries.

Rural household poverty dynamics in the Far‐Western Hills of Nepal: empirical evidence from panel data

AbstractAn understanding of the dynamics of persistent poverty that is not static, contrary to its portrayal in the literature, is important for policy‐makers. We therefore performed multinomial logistic regression and binary logistic regression on panel data to capture rural poverty dynamics in Nepal's Far‐Western Hills. The former revealed that the risk of experiencing chronic poverty was significantly higher for households in the more remote village development committee of Melauli, those headed by women or older men with less education, and those with higher dependency ratios and lower participation levels in community‐based organisations. The latter, entailing disaggregation of transient poverty, revealed a higher risk of moving into poverty for members of occupational castes (OCs) and housevholds in Melauli because of their limited socioeconomic assets. The occurrence of natural disasters also increased households’ risks of moving into poverty. Conversely, more years of schooling among household heads facilitated movements out of poverty. Thus, poverty reduction programmes focusing on relatively remote villages and OCs that promote educational access and employment generation are necessary to address chronic and transient poverty. Further, the introduction of temporary relief programmes following natural disasters, and of insurance schemes for covering associated losses, will alleviate transient poverty.

Implications of Climate Change for Children in Developing Countries

Climate change may be particularly dangerous for children in developing countries. Even today, many developing countries experience a disproportionate share of extreme weather, and they are predicted to suffer disproportionately from the effects of climate change in the future. Moreover, developing countries often have limited social safety nets, widespread poverty, fragile health care systems, and weak governmental institutions, making it harder for them to adapt or respond to climate change. And the fact that many developing countries have high birth rates and high ratios of children to adults (known as high dependency ratios) means that proportionately more children are at risk there than in the developed world. In this article, Rema Hanna and Paulina Oliva delve into climate change’s likely implications for children in developing countries. Such children already face severe challenges, which climate change will likely exacerbate. In particular, most people in developing countries still depend primarily on agriculture as a source of income, and so anything that reduces crop yields—such as excessive heat or rain—is likely to directly threaten the livelihoods of developing-country families and their ability to feed their children. Poor nutrition and economic disruption are likely to lower children’s scholastic achievement or even keep them out of school altogether. Children in developing countries also face more-severe threats from both air and water pollution; from infectious and parasitic diseases carried by insects or contaminated water; and from possible displacement, migration, and violence triggered by climate change. How can we temper the threat to children in developing countries? Hanna and Oliva write that we should design and fund policies to shield children in developing nations from the harm caused by climate change. Such policies might include developing new technologies, inventing more-weather-resistant crops, improving access to clean water, increasing foreign aid during disasters, and offering more assistance to help poor countries expand their safety net programs.

Rural livelihood and food poverty in Ekiti State, Nigeria

The study examined the effect of livelihood activities on food security status of rural households in Ekiti State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from 150 households through a multi-stage sampling procedure. The majority of the rural residents were in their economic active years, had diversified their livelihood activities so as to increase their income stream and also mitigate against shocks. The highest food poverty headcount was observed among female crop farming non-farming households with one to six members while all households with more than 12 members were food poor. Severity of food poverty decreased with years of farming experience, educational status and farm size of crop farmers and those engaged in non-farm activities. The probability of a rural household being food poor reduced with household head’s attainment of primary education and land ownership but increases with being headed by a woman and having high dependency ratio.

Deprivation index and dependency ratio are key determinants of emergency medical admission rates

BackgroundPatients from deprived backgrounds have a higher in-patient mortality following an emergency medical admission; there has been debate as to the extent to which deprivation and population structure influences hospital admission rate. MethodsAll emergency medical admissions to an Irish hospital over a 12-year period (2002–2013) categorized by quintile of Deprivation Index and Dependency Ratio (proportion of population <15 or ≥65years) from small area population statistics (SAPS), were evaluated against hospital admission rates. Univariate and multivariable risk estimates (Odds Ratios (OR) or Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR)) were calculated, using logistic or zero truncated Poisson regression as appropriate. Results66,861 admissions in 36,214 patients occured during the study period. The Deprivation Index quintile independently predicted the admission rate/1000 population, Q1 9.4 (95%CI 9.2 to 9.7), Q2 16.8 (95%CI 16.6 to 17.0), Q3 33.8 (95%CI 33.5 to 34.1), Q4 29.6 (95%CI 29.3 to 29.8) and Q5 45.4 (95%CI 44.5 to 46.2). Similarly the population Dependency Ratio was an independent predictor of the admission rate with adjusted predicted rates of Q1 20.8 (95%CI 20.5 to 21.1), Q2 19.2 (95%CI 19.0 to 19.4), Q3 27.6 (95%CI 27.3 to 27.9), Q4 43.9 (95%CI 43.5 to 44.4) and Q5 34.4 (95%CI 34.1 to 34.7). A high concurrent Deprivation Index and Dependency Ratio were associated with very high admission rates. ConclusionDeprivation Index and population Dependency Ratio are key determinants of the rate of emergency medical admissions.

Shocks as a Source of Vulnerability: An Empirical Investigation from Pakistan

The objective of this paper is to investigate the incidence of different types of shocks in rural Pakistan and identify the household characteristics that are associated with this phenomenon. It is observed that one-third of households experience an adverse shock, be it natural/agricultural, economic, social or relating to health. The natural/agricultural shocks have major share in the total burden of shocks while the households‘ coping mechanism is overwhelmingly informal and largely asset-based. The poorest of the households adopt behaviour-based strategies like reducing food consumption, employ child labour, work more hours etc. Overall, households of with less educated heads, high dependency ratio, large household size, low welfare ratio, farm household, ownership of land and residing in south Punjab or Sindh are more vulnerable to suffer shocks, particularly of income. Vulnerability in terms of a decline in consumption is observed for households who are hit by natural/agricultural or health shocks. For all these reasons, a gradual shift from traditional emergency relief measures towards ex-ante actions to reduce and mitigate hazard impacts should be encouraged along with non- exploitative credit and more effective safety nets. JEL Classification: C21, C25, I32 Keywords: Shocks, Vulnerability, Poverty

Revisiting Hohokam Paleodemography

Archaeological evidence documents apparent depopulation of the Hohokam region of Southern Arizona at the end of the Classic period (A.D. 1150-1450). Major population centers were no longer occupied, and many distinctive material culture traits associated with the Hohokam tradition seem to disappear. Proposed explanations include migration, dispersion of the population into less archaeologically visible settlements, and wholesale population decline. The latter hypothesis is attractive partly because of a seminal study of paleodemography and health at the Classic-period site of Pueblo Grande in the Phoenix Basin. That study suggested that the population was not sustainable due to very low life expectancy, a very high dependency ratio of juveniles to adults, and other indicators of biological stress. A hazards analysis of the published demographic data reveals life expectancy at birth in the expected range for prehistoric populations with no evidence of a dependency crisis. Population decline at the end of the Classic period is more likely explained by reduced fertility than by increased mortality. Birth rates are sensitive to cultural and economic forces, and we should look beyond health factors in trying to account for the disappearance of Hohokam traditions.

Linking Unemployment to Inflation and Economic Growth: Toward A Better Understanding of Unemployment in the Philippines

Unemployment is among the major problems not only in less developed and developing countries but in developed countries as well. It spells out the extent of poverty a household will have to sustain. Strongly influenced by the premises of the Okun’s Law and Phillips Curve, this study sought to determine the link between unemployment and inflation and economic growth. An additional explanatory variable, age dependency ratio, was introduced to investigate this facet of unemployment which is based on the premise that a high age dependency ratio would result to lower unemployment. Unit root tests were employed to the data series prior to testing the hypothesized relationships which employed ordinary least squares (OLS) regression technique. Tests for heteroskedasticity and collinearity were done using White’s test and VIF, respectively. It was found that unemployment is negatively related to inflation and economic growth, confirming Okun’s Law and Philips Curve in the Philippines for the period covering 1980 to 2009. Moreover, age dependency ratio was found to be positively related with unemployment albeit, the relationship is not significant. The coefficient of determination obtained for the model was 72.7% hence overall, the regression line relatively describes the data well.

Modeling the effect of a heat wave on maize production in the USA and its implications on food security in the developing world

This study uses geo-spatial crop modeling to quantify the biophysical impact of weather extremes. More specifically, the study analyzes the weather extreme which affected maize production in the USA in 2012; it also estimates the effect of a similar weather extreme in 2050, using future climate scenarios. The secondary impact of the weather extreme on food security in the developing world is also assessed using trend analysis.Many studies have reported on the significant reduction in maize production in the USA due to the extreme weather event (combined heat wave and drought) that occurred in 2012. However, most of these studies focused on yield and did not assess the potential effect of weather extremes on food prices and security. The overall goal of this study was to use geo-spatial crop modeling and trend analysis to quantify the impact of weather extremes on both yield and, followed food security in the developing world.We used historical weather data for severe extreme events that have occurred in the USA. The data were obtained from the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). In addition we used five climate scenarios: the baseline climate which is typical of the late 20th century (2000s) and four future climate scenarios which involve a combination of two emission scenarios (A1B and B1) and two global circulation models (CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2). DSSAT 4.5 was combined with GRASS GIS for geo-spatial crop modeling. Simulated maize grain yield across all affected regions in the USA indicates that average grain yield across the USA Corn Belt would decrease by 29% when the weather extremes occur using the baseline climate. If the weather extreme were to occur under the A1B emission scenario in the 2050s respectively, average grain yields would decrease by 38% and 57%, under the CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC 3.2 global climate models, respectively.The weather extremes that occurred in the USA in 2012 resulted in a sharp increase in the world maize price. In addition, it likely played a role in the reduction in world maize consumption and trade in 2012/13, compared to 2011/12. The most vulnerable countries to the weather extremes are poor countries with high maize import dependency ratios including those countries in the Caribbean, northern Africa and western Asia. Other vulnerable countries include low-income countries with low import dependency ratios but which cannot afford highly-priced maize. The study also highlighted the pathways through which a weather extreme would affect food security, were it to occur in 2050 under climate change.Some of the policies which could help vulnerable countries counter the negative effects of weather extremes consist of social protection and safety net programs. Medium- to long-term adaptation strategies include increasing world food reserves to a level where they can be used to cover the production losses brought by weather extremes.

How Should Uganda Grow?

Income per capita in Uganda has doubled in the last 20 years. This remarkable performance has been buoyed by significant aid flows and large external imbalances. Economic growth has been concentrated in non-tradeable activities leading to growing external imbalances and a growing gap between rural and urban incomes. Future growth will depend on achieving sufficient export dynamism. In addition, growth faces a number of other challenges: low urbanisation rate, rapid rural population growth and high dependency ratios. However, both the dependency ratio and fertility rates have begun to decline recently. Rural areas are also severely overcrowded with low productivity subsistence agriculture as a pervasive form of production. Commercial agriculture has great possibilities to increase output, but as the sector improves its access to capital, inputs and technology it will shed jobs rather than create them. These challenges combined tell us that future growth in Uganda will require a rapid rate of export growth and economic diversification. The country faces the prospect of an oil boom of uncertain size and timing. It could represent an important stepping stone to achieve external sustainability, expanded income and infrastructure and a greater internal market. However, as with all oil booms, the challenges include avoiding the Dutch disease, managing the inevitable volatility in oil incomes and avoiding inefficient specialisation in oil. Policies that set targets for the non-oil deficit could help manage some of these effects, but a conscious strategy to diversify would still be needed. The best strategy is therefore to use the additional oil revenue and accompanying investments to promote a diversification strategy that is sustainable. To determine how to encourage such a transformation, we draw on a new line of research that demonstrates how development seldom implies producing more of the same. Instead, as countries grow, they tend to move into new industries, while they also increase productivity in existing sectors. In this report, we analyse what those new industries might be for Uganda. To do so, we first look to those products which balance the desire to increase the diversification and complexity of production, while not over-stretching existing capabilities. These include mostly agricultural inputs, such as agrochemicals and food processing. In addition, Uganda should concurrently develop more complex industries, such as construction materials, that are reasonably within reach of current capabilities and will be in great demand in the context of an oil boom. Here, the fact that Uganda is landlocked and faces high import costs will provide natural protection to the expanding demand in Uganda and neighbouring countries. We conclude with a discussion of the government policies that will support Uganda in developing new tradeable industries.