High Demand Uncertainty Research Articles

Divesting or keeping overseas subsidiary production under rising production costs and uncertain market demands in host countries

This study examines whether overseas manufacturing subsidiaries are divested or kept under rising production costs and uncertain market demands in their host countries. We predict that even under increasing production costs, a subsidiary will not be divested but kept under high market demand uncertainty. A multinomial logit analysis of Korean overseas manufacturing subsidiaries finds that an overseas manufacturing subsidiary exposed to high labor cost growth in its host country is not divested but kept alive under high market demand uncertainty via cross-border production volume adjustments with other in-network subsidiaries in different countries. It also shows that the moderating impact of demand uncertainty on production shifts over divestment is pronounced more for the subsidiaries with low cross-country labor cost correlation, high product compatibility, and high ownership share. These findings imply that the longevity of subsidiary operations is shaped by geographic and organizational characteristics determining production shift conditions.

Quick Response Under Strategic Manufacturer

Problem definition: Quick response is a classic operations strategy that allows a retailer to place a rapid replenishment order during the selling season using information learned from early sales. The benefits of quick response are widely studied in the literature under the condition that the manufacturer’s wholesale prices are exogenously given. Motivated by the practice of emerging small and medium-sized enterprise (SME) fashion brands, this paper revisits the value of quick response for a retailer when a manufacturer can strategically set its wholesale prices. Methodology/results: We develop a game-theoretic model consisting of one manufacturer and one retailer. In contrast to the traditional quick response setting, the manufacturer can dynamically adjust wholesale prices for both regular and replenishment orders. First, we investigate whether and when quick response still benefits the retailer. We find that, under low or significantly high demand uncertainties, the firms share a common preferred ordering strategy, and quick response benefits the retailer as well as the supply chain. But, under moderately high demand uncertainty, the retailer’s favored ordering strategy conflicts with the manufacturer’s interest; as a result, the manufacturer would set wholesale prices to counter the retailer’s ordering strategy, which makes quick response detrimental to the retailer. Second, we search for mechanisms that can resolve this conflict and restore the beneficial effect of quick response. We show that letting the manufacturer commit to wholesale prices up front is ineffective in fixing the problem. However, if the retailer can propose a take-it-or-leave-it wholesale price for the replenishment order (possibly with the replenishment quantity) once the regular wholesale price is set, then quick response leads to a win–win outcome for both firms. Managerial implications: The findings caution retailers with weak power (e.g., SMEs) when adopting quick response, especially when facing moderately high demand uncertainties. The retailer, although weak, should be aware of the retailer’s natural ability to propose replenishment terms because, otherwise, the retailer can always forgo quick response; this opens up an opportunity to design more favorable arrangements. Funding: The work of J. Chen was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72171202, 72232007]; the work of Q. Hu was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 72271057, 72091211]; the work of D. Shi was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grant 72102205] and Shenzhen Stable Support Program for Higher Education Institutions; the work of F. Zhang was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [Grants 71929201, 72131004]. Supplemental Material: The online supplement is available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.0561 .

Comparing Two Strategies for Locating Hydrogen Refueling Stations under High Demand Uncertainty

This research aims to model and compare two strategies for locating new hydrogen refueling stations (HRS) in a context of high uncertainty on H<sub>2</sub> demand and on the spatial distribution of demand points. The first strategy S1 represented by an agent-based model integrating a particle swarm optimization metaheuristic consists of finding the best HRS locations by adapting to the real evolution of the demand. A second strategy S2 consists in solving a classical capacitated <em>p</em>-median problem based on H<sub>2</sub> consumption forecasts over a given deterministic horizon in order to define in advance <em>p</em> optimal future HRS locations. Assuming that the same distributor gradually implements future HRSs in a given area between 2023 and 2030, both models minimize the sum of travel distances between each demand point and its assigned SRH. The results show that during the growth phase of the fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) market, with two different compound annual growth rates (medium and strong), the conservative S1 strategy performs better than S2 as these rates increase. However, while S2 remains suboptimal throughout the sales growth period, it becomes more effective once demand stabilizes. Another finding is that different uniform distributions of H<sub>2</sub> demand points in the same space have only a small long-term influence on the performance of these two models. This research advises investors to study the influence of different location strategies and models on the performance of a final HRS network in a given region. Models can be easily configured and adapted to a particular spatial distribution of demand points in a specific environment, more flexible H<sub>2</sub> production capabilities, or different behaviors of FCEV drivers that could be geo-located.

When is industry ‘sustainable’? The economics of institutional variety in a pandemic

Industrialising economies today are characterised by a multi-level heterogeneity of customs, norms, guidelines, standards, regulations and other laws that provide the broad scaffolding and the technical context for industrial activity. This institutional variety (IV) leads to combinatorial challenges about which institutions are mixed and matched as technologies and sectors evolve. Gaps in evolutionary political economy and evolutionary institutional methods should explain when variety is ‘better’ for industrial development. Two health industry cases, oxygen production and Ayurveda, have come into the pandemic spotlight under high demand and high uncertainty, by patients, state, firms, experts and other stakeholders. Both cases reflect markedly different types of institutional variety with implications for manufacturing and services. A debate of sustainable industrial policies (SIPs) thus requires attention to institutional variety (IV) and a future agenda on healthcare.

Precommitments in Two-Sided Market Competition

Problem definition: We consider a two-sided market competition problem where two platforms, such as Uber and Lyft, compete on both supply and demand sides and study the impact of precommitments in a variety of practically motivated instruments on the equilibrium outcomes. Academic/practical relevance: We extend a set of classic oligopoly pricing results to account for two-sided competition under demand uncertainty. Methodology: We investigate multi-stage competition games. Results: We start with a sufficiently low demand uncertainty. First, we show that a precommitment made on the less competitive (demand or supply) side (on price or wage) has a less intense outcome than no commitment (i.e., spot-market price and wage competition). Then we show that, somewhat surprisingly, if the competition intensities of both sides are sufficiently close, the commission precommitment, where the platforms first compete in setting their commission rates and then their prices, is less profitable than no precommitment at all, and vice versa. Furthermore, we show that the capacity precommitment, in which the platforms first commit to a matching capacity and then set price and wage simultaneously subject to the precommitted capacity, leads to the most profitable outcome of all competition modes and extends the celebrated Kreps-Scheinkman equivalency to the two-sided market (without demand uncertainty). Then we extend the comparisons of various competition modes to account for a relatively high demand uncertainty. We show that the comparison between the spot-market price and wage competition and the commission precommitment stays the same as that with a sufficiently low demand uncertainty. In addition, the more flexible competition modes, such as no commitment and commission precommitment, benefit from higher demand uncertainty (with a fixed mean demand) because of their operational flexibility in response to the market changes. Further, a relatively high demand uncertainty may undermine or enhance the value of the wage precommitment, as opposed to no commitment. Finally, we also account for platforms with asymmetric parameters and matching friction and find that our main insights tend to be robust. Managerial implications: Our results caution platforms that a precommitment to the wrong instrument can be worse than no commitment at all. Moreover, the regulation of classifying gig workers as employees, despite many of its benefits to workers, may lead to a less competitive market outcome and, surprisingly, hurt gig workers by paying them lower wages. Funding: M. Hu was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada [Grants RGPIN-2015-06757, RGPIN-2021-04295]. Y. Liu was supported by the Hong Kong Research Grants Council, Direct Allocation Grant [Project ID P0036818]. Supplemental Material: The online appendices are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2022.1173 .

Should a firm bring a supplier into the boardroom?

Endowed with significant firm‐specific knowledge, inside directors can contribute to the decision‐making processes of the boardroom. However, regulatory changes, focusing primarily on the monitoring function of the boards, have driven inside directors out of the boardroom. This article argues that suppliers with firm‐ and industry‐specific knowledge are uniquely positioned to fill a critical void in boardrooms. It also suggests that the value of having a supplier on the board (SOTB) is influenced by environmental contingencies faced by a firm: operational efficiency, diversification, and demand uncertainty. Using an objective measure of supplier presence in the boardroom, the authors find that a supplier's presence enhances firm performance. They also find that the value of an SOTB in enhancing performance is greater in firms with lower operational efficiency and higher demand uncertainty and, is lower in firms with higher diversification. These results are robust to potential endogeneity issues, alternative estimation methods, and measures of moderator and outcome variables.

Data-driven ordering and transshipment decisions for online retailers and logistics service providers

Emerging advanced technologies enable logistics service providers (LSPs) to offer supply chain services, such as inventory management, rather than only shipping services. In the traditional retailer-led system, the retailer makes the ordering and transshipment decisions and outsources shipping to the LSP, but this paper studies an LSP-led preventive transshipment system where the LSP is the decision-maker, providing the optimal ordering and transshipment policy solution to the online retailer. An optimal two-threshold transshipment policy is proposed for the LSP-led system. The LSP has lower operational cost for transshipment than the retailer, so one may expect that the LSP can bear more risk of mismatch between the transshipment and uncertain demand, leading the LSP to be more aggressive in transshipment. Interestingly, the analysis reveals that the transshipment quantity chosen by the LSP is not necessarily high. The LSP will transfer less inventory between distribution centers than the retailer if the delivery cost or transshipment cost of the LSP, or the lost sale cost, holding fee, or selling price of the retailer are high. Based on real industrial data, the evaluation result shows that preventive transshipment in the LSP-led system can bring an average increase of 40.33% (even 93.31% for products with high demand uncertainty in the first selling period) in the total profit of the retailer and the LSP over the non-transshipment scenario. Importantly, even if the transshipment cost is the same for both the retailer and LSP, using the optimal policy decided by the LSP rather than the retailer will generate a profit improvement of 6.37%.

Manufacturing background CEOs and corporate cost management: evidence from listed manufacturing firms

ABSTRACT Manufacturing is fundamental to the real economy. Given the central role of cost management in the manufacturing industry, we study the role of people in firms’ cost management. We find that manufacturing background CEOs significantly decrease cost stickiness. The results can be explained by a manufacturing background CEO’s focus on corporate cost management and his superior ability to choose flexible production to accelerate inventory flow and mitigate the bullwhip effect. We also show that the impact of manufacturing background CEOs on cost stickiness is more prominent in firms with high demand uncertainty, high economic policy uncertainty, high asset intensity, or low customer concentration. Finally, we report evidence that CEOs with manufacturing and finance backgrounds are associated with less cost stickiness, thus confirming the critical role of business-finance integration in cost management. In sum, these findings highlight the importance of talents in building a powerful manufacturing country.

Airport pricing and regulation under passenger demand uncertainty

This paper addresses the airport pricing and regulation issues in the presence of passenger demand uncertainty. The regulatory schemes concerned include the single-till and dual-till price-cap regulations. A vertical-structure model is presented to determine the optimal airport charges under the single-till and dual-till price-cap regulations. The effects of the airport regulatory level and the risk-averse preferences of stakeholders in the system on airport pricing are also examined. The results show that at a high passenger demand uncertainty level, the dual-till regulation would outperform the single-till regulation in terms of social welfare. However, at a low passenger demand uncertainty level, which regulation is better depends on various factors, such as the regulatory level and risk-averse preference.

Distributionally robust front distribution center inventory optimization with uncertain multi-item orders

<p style='text-indent:20px;'>As a new retail model, the front distribution center (FDC) has been recognized as an effective instrument for timely order delivery. However, the high customer demand uncertainty, multi-item order pattern, and limited inventory capacity pose a challenging task for FDC managers to determine the optimal inventory level. To this end, this paper proposes a two-stage distributionally robust (DR) FDC inventory model and an efficient row-and-column generation (RCG) algorithm. The proposed DR model uses a Wasserstein distance-based distributional set to describe the uncertain demand and utilizes a robust conditional value at risk decision criterion to mitigate the risk of distribution ambiguity. The proposed RCG is able to solve the complex max-min-max DR model exactly by repeatedly solving relaxed master problems and feasibility subproblems. We show that the optimal solution of the non-convex feasibility subproblem can be obtained by solving two linear programming problems. Numerical experiments based on real-world data highlight the superior out-of-sample performance of the proposed DR model in comparison with an existing benchmark approach and validate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm.</p>

Benefits of backup sourcing for components in assembly systems under supply uncertainty

We consider an assembly system for a final product consisting of multiple components. The assembler orders each component from its primary supplier, and one of the components is subject to supply uncertainty in which the actual available quantity for assembly is only equal to a random fraction of the order quantity. After this actual available quantity is realized but before assembly for meeting final demand, the assembler can procure additional components from some backup suppliers. We derive the optimal ordering policy under this backup sourcing strategy and analyze the benefits of using backup suppliers in mitigating the adverse effect of supply uncertainty in component procurement from the primary suppliers. Our result shows that the availability of backup supplier for the component with supply uncertainty can provide very substantial benefits to the assembler, especially when the unit cost of this component from the primary supplier is high relative to the extra unit component cost from the backup supplier for high-margin products under an operating environment of high supply uncertainty and low demand uncertainty. We further show that the availability of backup suppliers for the other components with no supply uncertainty can provide additional significant benefits to the assembler when extra unit component cost of backup supplier for the unreliable component supplier is high for low-margin products with high demand uncertainty.

Determining investment size and local embeddedness under host market uncertainty and growth rates

This study employs a growth options perspective to examine how multinational corporations (MNCs) design their investment attributes under the influence of host market uncertainty and growth rates. It specifically examines MNCs’ decisions on investment size and local embeddedness under host market conditions. Using data on Korean overseas manufacturing subsidiaries, we find that MNCs choose either more-local-embedded small investments or less-locally-embedded large investments under high demand uncertainty and GDP growth rates. We also find that this choice is moderated by host market political risk and competition. Our findings imply that MNCs consider both uncertainty-driven flexibility and growth rate-induced commitment when selecting international investment modes. This consideration allows MNCs to gain flexibility as well as an enhanced ability to expand in the future. This study contributes to the literature on real options and entry modes in the international business area by showing how host market conditions and investment decisions are related.

Postponement and logistics flexibility in retailing: The moderating role of logistics integration and demand uncertainty

Dynamic capabilities such as flexibility are considered influential in achieving superior performance, especially under uncertain circumstances. Among others, postponement is a well-established concept in operations and supply chain management (OSCM) and has been regarded as a key concept in managing supply and demand while increasing flexibility. This study investigates the effect of postponement on logistics flexibility, and that of the latter on retail firm performance. In addition, the moderating roles of logistics integration and demand uncertainty on these relationships are investigated. The study utilizes a quantitative survey and draws on a sample of 261 retailers in Sweden. Logistics flexibility proves to have a mediating role in the postponement–performance relationship. Furthermore, we provide support for the direct effect that postponement can have on logistics flexibility, and the subsequent effect of logistics flexibility on retail firm performance. We contribute by simultaneously studying postponement and logistics flexibility in the retailing context. We find conditional support for the moderating roles of logistics integration and demand uncertainty. The results show that for medium levels of uncertainty, the positive relationship between postponement and logistics flexibility, as well as logistics flexibility and firm performance, are intensified. From a practical standpoint, the findings underline that in the presence of high or low demand uncertainty, applying postponement may not always be beneficial in achieving logistics flexibility, and subsequently better performance. Moreover, if retailers prioritize logistics integration, they should not always expect superior performance gains from the flexibility benefits of postponement.

Location-boundedness, investment irreversibility, and divestment of international joint ventures under host market demand uncertainty

We employ the real options perspective to examine how the irreversibility of location-bound assets and resources affects the divestment of international joint ventures (IJVs) under exogenous uncertainty in host countries. Utilizing a large sample of Korean IJVs and addressing a sample selection of IJVs and the endogeneity of firms’ choice of location-bound investments, we find that high host market demand uncertainty interacts with localized products or local sales forces and reduces divestment rates of IJVs. We also find that the deterrent effects of these two country-specific investments are more salient for IJVs with local sourcing and sales. These findings imply that the deterrent effect of location-boundedness is congruent with the uncertainty-based real options theory when explaining IJV divestment.

Multiperiod Portfolio Procurement Problem With Option Contracts

A multiperiodic structure always underlies the procurement problem in practice. Option contracts are widely used to make a firm capable of responding flexibly to high demand uncertainty. However, so far, the impact of different option contracts on the multiperiod decisions and performance of a firm has been not discussed. Motivated by this problem, in this paper we analyze the multiperiod procurement problem within the framework of wholesale price, call, put, and bidirectional option contracts. Based on the dynamic programming theory, we characterize the structure of the firm's optimal replenishment policy for each period in four cases. We then develop a heuristic to approximate the corresponding policy parameters. Through system comparisons of four cases, we examine the value of option contracts for the firm and discuss the best option contract type for the firm. The results show that the firm will gain higher profits after the option contracts are introduced. Moreover, if the unit purchase and exercise costs of the bidirectional option are equal to those of the unilateral option, then bidirectional option contracts are preferred over unilateral option contracts. If the unit purchase cost of the bidirectional option is higher than that of the unilateral option, unilateral option contracts may be more profitable than bidirectional option contracts. Furthermore, if the unit backlogging cost is high and the unit inventory holding cost is low, call option contracts are better than put option contracts; if the unit backlogging cost is low and the unit inventory holding cost is high, then put option contracts work better than call option contracts.

The anti-collusion dilemma: Information sharing of the supply chain under buyback contracts

While previous studies did not consider that buyback contracts in collusive research of supply chains and the buyback contract particularly strengthens collusion between retailers in the supply chain, we address a new research question: What is the effect of different retailer collusive patterns and information sharing mechanisms on the benefits of each member in supply chains with buyback contracts? To answer this research question, we develop four two-echelon supply chain models. The model consists of one supplier and two competing retailers. We consider the two dimensions of collusion mode and information sharing type and derive the optimal equilibrium solutions for each member. The theoretical analysis demonstrates the following results: (i) With explicit collusion, retailers are less willing to vertically share information with the supplier. (ii) Tacit collusion with low demand uncertainty motivates information sharing because the wholesale price can correctly convey the supplier’s information to retailers. (iii) Increasing the probability of high demand or reducing the buyback rate can benefit all members in the supply chain. (iv) Different from the wholesale price and revenue sharing contract, in the buyback contract, the whole supply chain sustains losses from vertical information sharing under the condition of collusion with high demand uncertainty. A numerical experiment shows interesting insights: Although explicit collusion generally brings profit improvement to retailers, they prefer to choose tacit collusion to effectively identify price signals when the demand uncertainty is lower. We check the robustness of results and find that the main results will not be changed in the extended model where the buyback price is lower than the wholesale price.

Improving the sustainability of a reverse supply chain system under demand uncertainty by using postponement strategies.

In recent decades, issues of resource depletion and waste piling have grown at an alarming rate, which are happening in the cases of product wastes with significant residual values, such as e-waste. To address these issues, stakeholders have focused to develop a reverse supply chain (RSC) system that can sustain profitable takeback, reuse, and recycling operations in the long-term. Such a system requires efficiency in handling complex operations involving various players while being responsive to demand uncertainty and changes. One way in realizing these capabilities is by incorporating postponement concepts to the integrated RSC network, allowing the delay of operations susceptible to demand uncertainty. This study pioneers the formulation of a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer model of a multi-player RSC with speculation-postponement strategies. The sample average approximation method is used to solve and verify the proposed model that has an uncertain demand. Various speculation-postponement strategies, namely, disassembly, reconditioning, and reassembly strategies are developed to configure forecast and demand-driven RSC operations, including the purchasing, product takeback, production planning, inventory, and item speculation decisions. Numerical examples of the notebook computer RSC demonstrate that utilizing the right operation postponement can increase the network's flexibility, allowing better economic performances even under high demand uncertainty risks and stricter environmental regulations. In various cases, the RSC performs better with speculation-postponement strategies than without postponement strategy, demonstrating the proposed model's superiority. This study can provide insight to decision-makers to improve RSC sustainability through postponement. Moreover, the model is generic and can be applied to other products as well.

The Coordinator Role of Trade Credit Contract for Coordinating Integrated Pricing and Periodic Review Inventory Decisions With Stochastic Demand

The purpose of this study is to analytically coordinate joint pricing and periodic review ordering choices for a supply chain (SC) facing stochastic price-dependent demand. In this paper, first, the optimal inventory and pricing strategies made by SC members are obtained under decentralized and centralized models. Thereafter, employing a trade credit contract, it proposes to provide a win–win coordination for the investigated SC. Sensitivity analyses are provided both analytically and numerically which indicate the significance of trade credit contracts in improving both customer service level and customer satisfaction. The results indicate that using trade credit contracts, the coordination of joint pricing and periodic review ordering choices is achievable. Moreover, the proposed trade credit contract has a unique feature in achieving more economic benefit compared to the centralized model under some circumstances. In addition, sensitivity analyses reveal that the coordination of integrated periodic review ordering and pricing choices is beneficial, especially for items with high price sensitivity and high demand uncertainty. Our findings also show the applicability of the trade credit contract for an SC facing highly uncertain demand.

Supply Chains and Antitrust Governance

Antitrust regulations are meant to promote fair competition in the market, but balancing administrative and legal costs with enforcement can be difficult when multilayered supply chains are involved. The canonical example of this challenge is the landmark Illinois Brick ruling, which limits antitrust damages to only the direct purchasers of a product; for instance, consumers can file antitrust claims against colluding retailers but not against colluding manufacturers—only retailers can file claims against manufacturers. This controversial ruling was meant to reduce legal costs, but it can clearly lead to missed enforcement opportunities. In this paper, we demonstrate how the Illinois Brick ruling interacts with contracts adopted in the supply chain, and we show that otherwise equivalent supply chain arrangements can have markedly different effects. In particular, we find that wholesale price, minimum order quantity, revenue sharing, and quantity discount contracts lead retailers to take legal action against manufacturers in the event of collusive behavior. However, the wholesale price plus fixed fee contract structure (also known as a two-part tariff or slotting fee contract) facilitates collusion among the manufacturers with retailers compensated by the fixed fee and not filing the antitrust litigation. We further demonstrate that collusion is more likely under high demand uncertainty and high competition at the retail level but is less likely under high competition at the manufacturer level. Our paper helps public enforcers identify market conditions conducive to antitrust violations. This paper was accepted by Vishal Gaur, operations management.

Does Demand Uncertainty Moderate the Relationship of Risk Attitude and Sticky Cost? Evidence From Egypt

The current paper explores the relation between managers’ risk attitude and cost stickiness behavior and the role of demand uncertainty as a moderation variable in the Egyptian business environment. Managers’ risk attitudes are measured using Bo and Sterken (2007) proxy measure [Bo, H., & Sterken, E. (2007). Attitude towards risk, uncertainty, and fixed investment. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 18(1), 59–75]. Demand uncertainty is measured by the standard deviation of firms’ sales over the sample period. The study sample includes 114 Egyptian-listed firms over a 14-year period (2004 - 2017) which results in 1,419 firm-year observations. The study models are estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) with a fixed-effects model. Findings show that in the presence of high demand uncertainty, risk-averse managers respond to sales decrease by cutting resources which lowers cost stickiness. One of the limitations is that some factors like firms’ policies, corporate governance mechanisms, and board of directors’ characteristics could dilute the effect of manager’s risk attitude on cost stickiness. The current research emphasizes the importance of considering the firm’s operating environment when selecting a manager for the firm, and the role of directed training to align the manager’s personal characteristics with the firm's objectives. The current research contributes to the previous literature by documenting the effect of manager’s risk attitude on cost stickiness and the role of a firm’s demand uncertainty as a moderating variable between these two variables.