Higher Rate Of Decline Research Articles

Degrees of population-level susceptibility of Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal species to predation by the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus)

Context Over the last 230 years, the Australian terrestrial mammal fauna has suffered a very high rate of decline and extinction relative to other continents. Predation by the introduced red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and feral cat (Felis catus) is implicated in many of these extinctions, and in the ongoing decline of many extant species. Aims To assess the degree to which Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal species are susceptible at the population level to predation by the red fox and feral cat, and to allocate each species to a category of predator susceptibility. Methods We collated the available evidence and complemented this with expert opinion to categorise each Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal species (extinct and extant) into one of four classes of population-level susceptibility to introduced predators (i.e. ‘extreme’, ‘high’, ‘low’ or ‘not susceptible’). We then compared predator susceptibility with conservation status, body size and extent of arboreality; and assessed changes in the occurrence of species in different predator-susceptibility categories between 1788 and 2017. Key results Of 246 Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal species (including extinct species), we conclude that 37 species are (or were) extremely predator-susceptible; 52 species are highly predator-susceptible; 112 species are of low susceptibility; and 42 species are not susceptible to predators. Confidence in assigning species to predator-susceptibility categories was strongest for extant threatened mammal species and for extremely predator-susceptible species. Extinct and threatened mammal species are more likely to be predator-susceptible than Least Concern species; arboreal species are less predator-susceptible than ground-dwelling species; and medium-sized species (35 g–3.5kg) are more predator-susceptible than smaller or larger species. Conclusions The effective control of foxes and cats over large areas is likely to assist the population-level recovery of ~63 species – the number of extant species with extreme or high predator susceptibility – which represents ~29% of the extant Australian terrestrial non-volant mammal fauna. Implications Categorisation of predator susceptibility is an important tool for conservation management, because the persistence of species with extreme susceptibility will require intensive management (e.g. predator-proof exclosures or predator-free islands), whereas species of lower predator susceptibility can be managed through effective landscape-level suppression of introduced predators.

Comparison of Sojourn Time Distributions in Modeling HIV/AIDS Disease Progression

Summary An application of semi-Markov models to AIDS disease progression was utilized to find best sojourn time distributions. We obtained data on 370 HIV/AIDS patients who were under follow-up from September 2008 to August 2015, from Yirgalim General Hospital, Ethiopia. The study reveals that within the “good” states, the transition probability of moving from a given state to the next worst state has a parabolic pattern that increases with time until it reaches a maximum and then declines over time. Compared with the case of exponential distribution, the conditional probability of remaining in a good state before moving to the next good state grows faster at the beginning, peaks, and then declines faster for a long period. The probability of remaining in the same good disease state declines over time, though maintaining higher values for healthier states. Moreover, the Weibull distribution under the semi-Markov model leads to dynamic probabilities with a higher rate of decline and smaller deviations. In this study, we found that the Weibull distribution is flexible in modeling and preferable for use as a waiting time distribution for monitoring HIV/AIDS disease progression.

Trajectories of physical function prior to death and brain neuropathology in a community-based cohort: the act study

BackgroundMechanisms linking cognitive and physical functioning in older adults are unclear. We sought to determine whether brain pathological changes relate to the level or rate of physical performance decline.MethodsThis study analyzed data from 305 participants in the autopsy subcohort of the prospective Adult Changes in Thought (ACT) study. Participants were aged 65+ and free of dementia at enrollment. Physical performance was measured at baseline and every two years using the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Data from 3174 ACT participants with ≥2 SPPB measurements were used to estimate two physical function measures: 1) rate of SPPB decline defined by intercept and slope; and 2) estimated SPPB 5 years prior to death. Neuropathology findings at autopsy included neurofibrillary tangles (Braak stage), neuritic plaques (CERAD level), presence of amyloid angiopathy, microinfarcts, cystic infarcts, and Lewy bodies. Associations (adjusted for sex, age, body mass index and education) between dichotomized neuropathologic outcomes and SPPB measures were estimated using modified Poisson regression with inverse probability weights (IPW) estimated via Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE). Relative risks for the 20th, 40th, and 60th percentiles (lowest levels and highest rates of decline) relative to the 80th percentile (highest level and lowest rate of decline) were calculated.ResultsDecedents with the least vs. most SPPB decline (slope > 75th vs. < 25th percentiles) had higher SPPB scores, and were more likely to be male, older, have higher education, and exercise regularly at baseline. No significant associations were observed between neuropathology findings and rate of SPPB decline. Lower predicted SPPB scores 5 years prior to death were associated with higher risk of microinfarcts (RR = 3.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.93–1.07 for the 20th vs. 80th percentiles of SPPB) and significantly higher risk of cystic infarcts (RR = 2.72, 95% CI 1.45–5.57 for 20th vs. 80th percentiles of SPPB).ConclusionCystic infarcts and microinfarcts, but not neuropathology findings of Alzheimer’s disease, were related to physical performance levels five years before death. No pathology findings were associated with rates of physical performance decline. Physical function levels in the years prior to death may be affected by vascular brain pathologies.

Technical measures of deliverability enhancement for mature gas fields: A case study of Carboniferous reservoirs in Wubaiti gas field, eastern Sichuan Basin, SW China

Abstract Taking the carboniferous reservoir of Wubaiti gas field in eastern Sichuan Basin as an example, the technology strategies are proposed about the following major problems during the middle to late stage of gas field development: imbalance development, low permeability and low efficient reserves left with low producing degree, unreasonable proration caused by changes of gas well dynamic productivity, universal water production in gas wells, high reserve recovery and composite decline rate of reserve-rich region, and lack of new methods for reserves producing evaluation and remaining reserves distribution prediction. The development technical strategies for Wubaiti gas field are as follows: (1) stratigraphic subdivision and structural description in which fault and tectonic fluctuations are describe based on seismic interpretation data; (2) division and quantitative characterization of reservoir units in which the reservoir shape, scale, connectivity and gas-bearing range are evaluated according to dynamic and static data; (3) fluid distribution and dynamic response analysis in which gas-water distribution pattern is figured out by combining structure, reservoir and gas well production dynamic characteristics; (4) reserves producing degree evaluation and deliverability review in which reserves producing degree and remaining recoverable reserves scale are evaluated from the perspective of static geological reserves and dynamic reserves, to make clear the direction of the next step production and establish rational production system in the late stage; (5) static geological model establishment and dynamic correction in which gas reservoir pressure and remaining reserve distribution are predicted by using fine 3D geological modeling and numerical simulation; (6) remaining reserves prediction and classified evaluation based on the dynamic revision prediction model to guide the recovery of remaining reserves; and (7) gas production technology and equipment development, targeted gas recovery techniques are provided concerning the mature gas field.

Artificial-Lift Selection Strategy To Maximize Value of Unconventional Oil and Gas Assets

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper SPE 181233, “Artificial-Lift Selection Strategy To Maximize Unconventional Oil and Gas Assets Value,” by Peter Oyewole, SPE, BOPCO, prepared for the 2016 SPE North American Artificial Lift Conference and Exhibition, The Woodlands, Texas, USA, 25–27 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed. The challenges of producing and lifting unconventional oil and gas economically is probably the most daunting phase of unconventional oil and gas development. The traditional approach of lift selection is no longer sufficient to manage unconventional wells effectively, with high decline rates between 40 and 80% in the first year. This paper presents an artificial-lift selection process to maximize the value of unconventional oil and gas assets. Introduction As the industry began developing unconventional oil and gas, the only options available for lift were the traditional artificial-lift systems that were developed for conventional oil and gas applications. These were adopted and applied to unconventional wells without major changes in technology or application. The result was obvious; lift systems that had performed efficiently in various environments and well conditions for decades struggled to work well in this new unconventional application. This paper presents some of the lessons learned and a holistic approach to artificial-lift selection strategy. The presentation includes a case study from the Permian Delaware Basin unconventional formations. The lift-evaluation process, which considers a combination of reservoir-fluid properties and well performance, was used to analyze the effect of various artificial-lift selection options on well value. The paper describes the three distinct and important periods of unconventional-well life and the effective artificial-lift systems applicable during each period. An artificial-lift system is phased over the life of the well on the basis of current and expected production-rate requirements and lift-method capability. Artificial-Lift Systems in Permian Delaware Basin Electrical Submersible Pumps (ESPs). An industrial reward structure based heavily on initial production rate and cumulative production of the first 90 and 180 days, together with record high oil prices, made ESP systems the most favorable lift system in the basin. ESP systems, with their ability to draw down the well and deliver record production rates, became the first lift system installed in wells after the initial well completion. Fracturing sand and gas handling became the primary root cause of most ESP failures. The 3- to 6-month run life was considered an acceptable failure frequency in the basin. The industry responded with improved technology to mitigate both sand and high-gas-production problems, which resulted in some measurable success. Rod-and-Beam Pump. The rod-and-beam pump is the Greater Permian Basin’s most popular artificial-lift system. The low normal lease operating expense (NLOE), because of low failure costs and low failure frequency, led to several beam-pump installations in the Delaware Basin.

Screening for cognitive disorders in elderly diabetics

IntroductionOld people with diabetes are more likely to develop cognitive impairment, Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. However, the determinants of the association between diabetes and cognitive impairments are only partially known.ObjectivesTo evaluate cognitive disorders in elderly diabetic patients and to identify risk factors of cognitive impairment in this population.MethodsIt was a cross-sectional study. It involved outpatients aged 65 and older, who were followed for diabetes in the endocrinology department at the Hedi Chaker University Hospital in Sfax (Tunisia), from October 1 to December 31, 2015. For each patient, we collected sociodemographic, clinical and therapeutic data. We used the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) to identify mild cognitive decline (score &lt; 26/30).ResultsWe identified 70 patients, all with type 2 diabetes. The average age was 66.8 years. The sex ratio (M: F) was 0.7. The mean duration of diabetes was 14.76 years. The average MoCA score was 20.68 ± 6. Forty patients (57%) had cognitive decline. The cognitive impairment was statistically correlated with female sex (P = 0.02), low level of education (P = 0.00), high levels of glycated hemoglobin (Hb A1c ≥ 7%) (P = 0.00), presence of hypoglycemic episodes (P = 0.05) and presence of dyslipidemia (P = 0.00).ConclusionOur study confirmed the high rate of cognitive decline in older type 2 diabetes patients. The profile of subjects at risk was consistent with the literature: poorly controlled diabetes, severe recurrent hypoglycaemia and associated dyslipidemia. Acting on these risk factors would prevent cognitive decline and therefore progression to dementia.Disclosure of interestThe authors have not supplied their declaration of competing interest.

Dissipation kinetics and pre-harvest residue limit of pyriofenone in oriental melon (Cucumis melo Var. makuwa) grown under regulated climatic conditions.

A high-performance liquid chromatography-ultraviolet detection was used to estimate the disappearance rates as well as the pre-harvest residue limits of pyriofenone in oriental melon (Cucumis melo var. makuwa) grown under greenhouse conditions in two different locations (A and B) in Seongju, Republic of Korea. The identity of the compound in standard solution and representative field incurred samples was confirmed using liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry. The method was validated in terms of linearity, limits of detection and quantification, accuracy (expressed as recovery) and precision (expressed as relative standard deviation) for accurate and precise quantitation. Notably, the residual levels of field incurred samples collected over days 0-10 post-application were below the maximum residue level (0.2 mg/kg) established by the Korean Ministry of Food and Drug Safety. Site A showed lower residue levels and a higher decline rate than site B, which might be attributed to seasonal variation (high temperature) and increased metabolic and enzyme profiling in the mature fruits. The half-lives were similar, 4.9 and 4.3 days, at sites A and B, respectively. Using the pre-harvest residue limit, we predicted the residue amounts at 10 and 5 days before harvest, which resulted in concentrations lower than the provisional maximum residue level at harvest time.

АНАЛИЗ ЗАБОЛЕВАЕМОСТИ ЧЕСОТКОЙ В ТАДЖИКИСТАНЕ

Objective: The study of the dynamics of the disease incidence of scabies in the Republic of Tajikistan and its administrative regions for 1991- 2014. Methods: According to the medical clearing-house of the Ministry of Health and Social Development of the Republic of Tajikistan, carried out the study of the intensive indices (II) of the disease incidence of scabies in the Republic of Tajikistan and its administrative regions for 1991-2014. Results: There are five different periods in the republic: the rise (1991-1996), the peak (1997), the sharp (1998) and slow (1999-2003) reduction, and stabilization (2004-2014). A comparative analysis of II the disease incidence of scabies was carried out in the administrative regions of the Republic of Tajikistan. Above the Republican II, the disease incidence of scabies was in Dushanbe and in regions of republican subordination, much lower in the regions of the Republic. A sharp increase in the disease incidence of scabies was first reacted in 1996 to Dushanbe (467.9). In 1997, peaks were registered in the whole country (463.6), Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (93.6), Khatlon Region (275.4) and Sughd Region (58.4). Later all this process came in 1998 in the Regions of the Republican Subordination (308.7). Conclusion: The disease incidence of scabies in Dushanbe at 19 years was higher than the Republican one and only at the peak of the disease incidence rate in the Republic (1997) is lower. II morbidity scabies in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, Khatlon and Sughd regions in almost all cases. Only in 2004 (in 1.7 times) and in 2004 (in 2 times) II of the disease incidence of scabies in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region was higher than in the Republic. Over a 23-year period, the disease incidence of scabies in Tajikistan decreased in 5 times (14.9 against 73.9). A similar situation was registered in Sughd region – 4.6 times (5.9 against 27.3) and districts of Republican Subordination – 3.9 times (28.3 against 109.7). The highest rate of decline in morbidity was registered in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region in 20.9 times (2.8 against 58.8), the lowest in the Khatlon region – 1.9 times (13.6 against 25.8). In Dushanbe, the disease incidence fell to 12.1 times (18.5 against 224.2). The obtained data are evidence of weak anti-epidemic measures in the foci of scabies. Keywords: Scabies, disease incidence, intensive indices, rates of decline and growth rates.

(2010-1954)النمو السكاني في إقليم بنغازي خلال الفترة من

Through the study of population growth census for the territory of Benghazi that in the period 1954-1964, the rate of population growth was (4.4%) and then declined to (3.7%) during the period 1984-1995. Then it rose slightly to record (2.2%) during the period 2006-2010. Said that the rise in the rate of population growth did not reach the level it was in the 1980s of the last century, this study seeks to answer the following question: what is reason behind the decline in population growth rates in the territory of the Benghazi?The study aimed to clarify the difference in the rate of increase in the size of the population of the territory. As well as highlighting the role played by natural increase and other natural resources. Also, it exhibits the importance of the study of population growth in the affected by economic, social and political factors, which lead to high rates of growth or decline, and this is reflected on the composition and distribution of the population.The descriptive approach of analytical work, based on data collection, compilation and interpretation. As well as the evolutionary historical approach, and the reliance on the comparative approach. The researcher adopted general censuses of population and vital statistics data conversion to tables and forms. The researcher in this study has depended on a set of standards such as the Exponential equation, and the equation of the expected number of years to double the population, the rate of birth and crude. Finally, the study showed that the size of the population of the territory has doubled twice throughout the period of study. It also shows that the crude birth had risen evenly reached their peak in 1984 recorded (52.9 per thousand), and then fell to record in 2009 (27.7 per 1,000)

Temporal features of the development of the cities of the Kharkov region

Kharkiv region is one of the most developed regions of Ukraine. One of the main problems is the slowness of the territorial development of the population settlement system, the excessive concentration of population in the city of Kharkiv. The transition from monocentric to polycentric model of spatial regional development of the Kharkiv region is one of the priority directions of development. The practical realization of this task depends on the knowledge of the laws of the population movement of the cities of Kharkiv region. Analysis of the dynamics of the population of cities in the Kharkiv region and the population growth rate from 1992 to 2016 allowed grouping the cities of the region at the rate of population decline due to their population size.Four groups have been formed with a slow pace of population decline (from -10% to -15%): Kharkiv, Chuguev - cities with a significant population, strong industrial development, with average population decline (from -15.1 % to -20%): Kupyansk, Balaklia, Bogodukhiv, Dergachi, Valki, South – industrial centers with significant potential for development, and where there are several production areas: construction materials industry, light industry, food industry, etc.Cities with significant population declines (from -20.1% to -25%): Lozova, Izyum, Pervomaisky, Lyubotin, Vovchansk, Zmiyiv, Krasnograd, Merefa – peripheral district centers and cities of the Kharkiv agglomeration, where there is at present a decline in the rate of industrial production and, consequently, jobs. Izyum and Lozova's cities slowed down due to the proximity to the area of the anti-terrorist operation.Among the cities of Kharkiv region Barvinckove has very high (more than - 25.1%) pace of population decline, which undoubtedly is a significant problem for the development of the entire settlement system, since such a rapid reduction can lead to the deprivation of the city Barvinkovo status of the city, the deepening of developmental imbalances Center-periphery and an obstacle to the polycentric development of the territory. It is important to have a balanced regional, demographic policy for cities belonging to groups with significant and high rates of population decline.

DEMOGRAPHIC DEGRADATION OF SEVERODONETSK-LYSYCHANSK AGGLOMERATION IN THE POST-SOVIET PERIOD

Formulation of the problem. Today Severodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration is the main administrative, socio-economic, political center of Luhansk region, where 15.6 % of the region's population lives. This agglomeration is a conurbation and includes 3 city-cores (Severodonetsk, Lysychansk and Rubizhne) and 44 other settlements (5 cities, 10 urban-type settlements and 29 rural settlements). Such a complex structure determines the importance of studying internal differences in the dynamics of population in different settlements of agglomeration.The purpose of the article. The article deals with the analysis of population dynamics and rates of its growth for Severodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration and its individual settlements in the post-Soviet period and justification of the agglomeration depression in terms of population loss.Results. The post-Soviet period of agglomeration development is characterized by a negative dynamics of the population. For the period 1989–2015, the population of the agglomeration decreased by 22.2 %, in particular by 10.7 % for 1989–2001 and by 12.9 % for 2001–2015. Such extremely negative trends can be explained by its location, on the one hand, in old industrial area, and on the other hand, in the area of the antiterrorist operation. The loss of the population of almost all urban agglomerations is very significant (exceeding 5 % over a decade). According to the indicator of population decline (more than 10 % for the thirty year period) agglomeration is depressed. Among the 18 urban settlements of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration, all settlements, except for urban-type settlements belonging to Severodonetsk City Council, are depressed in terms of population loss. This testifies to suburbanization processes in the suburban zone of Severodonetsk. The largest decrease in the population during the years of independence was in settlements in the influence zone of Lysychansk.Negative dynamics of the population in Severodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration in the post-Soviet period is primarily accounted for depopulation due to negative indicators of natural growth.Given the extremely high rates of decline in the population of Severodonetsk-Lysychansk agglomeration over the past decades, aggravation of the demographic situation, negative balance of migration, location in the area of the antiterrorist operation, chronic nature of socio-economic problems, the agglomeration can be considered as crisis.The geopolitical crisis in the east of Ukraine has both negative and positive impact on the development of agglomeration on the whole and the dynamics of the number of its population, in particular.

A comparative experimental study of gas injection in shale plugs by flooding and huff-n-puff processes

The increase in U.S crude oil over the past decade have been primarily driven by tight and shale oil. With the high production decline rates in shale reservoirs, improved oil recovery techniques must be applied to maintain the oil recovery from existing wells. Gas injection has been investigated and demonstrated as the most effective solution to face such challenge. As gas can be injected into the subsurface by two modes: continuous injection (flooding) and cyclic injection (huff-n-puff), this study aims to compare the recovery efficiencies of such two processes in shale core plugs with ultra-low matrix permeability.Eagle Ford core samples were used in this study and saturated with shale oil. Using N2 as the gas source, gas injection tests were operated on the same plug orderly by both modes under the same operating conditions. The sensitivity of soaking time on the huff-n-puff performance was evaluated. Lab-scale numerical models were built to simulate flooding and huff-n-puff processes and to history match the experimental data. It was found that optimization design of huff-n-puff is important to achieve the maximum oil recovery. The results show that the huff-n-puff possess can achieve a higher oil recovery than the flooding process.

Системні взаємозв’язки бюджетної безпеки в умовах фінансової глобалізації

Глобалізація чинить подвійний вплив на світову фінансову систему, зумовлюючи її розвиток і одночасну появу потенційних загроз фінансовій безпеці держав. Незважаючи на стрімке переростання у реальні, більшість країн світу всерйоз ці загрози не сприймають. Посилення останніх обумовлює необхідність вивчення проблеми забезпечення бюджетної безпеки в умовах світової глобалізації, переосмислення напрямів формування ефективної бюджетної системи з позицій безпечного розвитку, зміцнення бюджетної безпеки держави. Потрібно детальніше дослідити чинники впливу на рівень бюджетної безпеки і її взаємозв’язки з іншими складниками економічної безпеки.&#x0D; Мета роботи – дослідити взаємозв’язки бюджетної безпеки з урахуванням впливу процесу фінансової глобалізації і оцінити її рівень на засадах ретроспективного аналізу.&#x0D; Запропоновано авторське трактування поняття бюджетної безпеки як рівня здатності бюджетної системи забезпечити платоспроможність і фінансову стійкість держави, ефективне використання бюджетних коштів з урахуванням стратегічних пріоритетів розвитку бюджетних відносин і потенційної спроможності протистояти та попереджати загрози внутрішнього і зовнішнього походження.&#x0D; Результати аналізу економічної безпеки вказують на найвищий темп зниження фінансової безпеки у 2015 р. на 14,1 в. п. до рівня у 36,7 % серед усіх складників економічної безпеки. Установлено, що така ситуація спричинена зниженням надходжень від основних бюджетноутворювальних податків за посилення фіскального тиску на економіку, різкою девальвацією національної валюти, значним зростанням державного та гарантованого державою боргу з посиленням ризиків настання дефолту, неліквідності й неплатоспроможності фінансових установ, скороченням ресурсної бази банків, проблемами з їх капіталізацією. Це визначило критичний і близький до критичного стан майже всіх складників фінансової безпеки.&#x0D; Проаналізовано сучасний стан індикаторів бюджетної безпеки. Оцінено кореляційні зв’язки між інтегральним рівнем бюджетної безпеки та іншими складниками економічної безпеки. Установлено чинники та взаємозв’язки впливу на рівень бюджетної безпеки. Пряму залежність і найбільший вплив на незадовільний рівень бюджетної безпеки спричинили абсолютно небезпечні рівні валютної та боргової безпеки. Обґрунтовано необхідність удосконалення методичного підходу до визначення рівня безпеки з урахуванням процесів глобалізації та чинників екзогенного й ендогенного походження, які відображають розмір тінізації економіки, боргового і фіскального навантаження на бюджет, інфляційних процесів та інших показників, ключових для формування надходжень до бюджету.&#x0D; Наукова новизна дослідження – за результатами аналітичного оцінювання взаємозв’язків бюджетної безпеки визначено методи, важелі та інструменти державного регулювання ризиків і загроз, проведено стратегічний моніторинг, прогнозування і реалізацію заходів превентивного характеру щодо забезпечення економічної безпеки.&#x0D; Практичне значення одержаних результатів – доведенно положення із удосконалення науково-методичних засад оцінювання рівня бюджетної безпеки держави з урахуванням взаємозв’язків бюджетної безпеки з іншими складниками економічної безпеки. Результати мають практичну цінність для органів державного управління під час формування стратегічних і програмних документів із забезпечення економічної безпеки держави.

Apparent diffusion coefficient histogram shape analysis for monitoring early response in patients with advanced cervical cancers undergoing concurrent chemo-radiotherapy.

BackgroundTo explore the role of apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram shape related parameters in early assessment of treatment response during the concurrent chemo-radiotherapy (CCRT) course of advanced cervical cancers.MethodsThis prospective study was approved by the local ethics committee and informed consent was obtained from all patients. Thirty-two patients with advanced cervical squamous cell carcinomas underwent diffusion weighted magnetic resonance imaging (b values, 0 and 800 s/mm2) before CCRT, at the end of 2nd and 4th week during CCRT and immediately after CCRT completion. Whole lesion ADC histogram analysis generated several histogram shape related parameters including skewness, kurtosis, s-sDav, width, standard deviation, as well as first-order entropy and second-order entropies. The averaged ADC histograms of 32 patients were generated to visually observe dynamic changes of the histogram shape following CCRT.ResultsAll parameters except width and standard deviation showed significant changes during CCRT (all P < 0.05), and their variation trends fell into four different patterns. Skewness and kurtosis both showed high early decline rate (43.10 %, 48.29 %) at the end of 2nd week of CCRT. All entropies kept decreasing significantly since 2 weeks after CCRT initiated. The shape of averaged ADC histogram also changed obviously following CCRT.ConclusionsADC histogram shape analysis held the potential in monitoring early tumor response in patients with advanced cervical cancers undergoing CCRT.

Real-time monitoring of mechanical specific energy and bit wear using control engineering systems

Drilling of oil and gas wells utilize drilling mechanical energy to crush formation rocks through drill bits. Due to the friction with the formation rocks, the bit cutters suffer a continuous wear with the progress of the drilling causing reduction in rate of penetration. Real-time bit wear is a challenge in drilling as there is no absolute physical model.This paper presents new philosophy based on control engineering systems to simulate bit behavior and estimate the transferred and wasted mechanical energy to predict drilling performance efficiency.Analytical model has been developed to predict drilling performance by analyzing the real-time transferred drilling mechanical energy consumed by the drill bits, the model will assist in optimizing the hydraulic energy and take the proper time decision to pull the dulled bits.The model consists of a first order differential equation solved to predict the effect of drilling parameters on drill bit wear; while, the bit wear equation enters in a second order differential equation solved by Laplace transformation, and expressed as a transfer function representation which allows in analyzing the drilling performance, and also expressed as real-time of bit displacement achieved by the input drilling energy.The poles of denominator of the transfer function have been analyzed as a complex conjugate pairs; the location of the real part of the complex roots indicates the amount of real-time consumed mechanical energy by the drilling bits to destroy formation rocks. While, the location of imaginary roots indicates the amount of wasted mechanical energy due to bit wear.The effect of hydraulic energy on drilling performance has been simulated using closed loop transfer function, which allows for monitoring the wasted mechanical energy, and the wasted hours of bit life consumed in extra cutting due to insufficient hydraulic energy.The results show that the visual representation for poles location allows real-time monitoring for the performance of the transferred mechanical energy due to both bit dullness and to insufficient hydraulic energy explicitly. The results also show high decline rate in transferred mechanical energy always occurs within small values of bit dullness compared with that occurred in large values of bit dullness, which confirm the real field observations. The comparison with field examples proves the model reliability in predicting the drilling performance.

PS 08-44] RELATIONSHIP OF BLOOD PRESSURE AND DECLINE OF RENAL FUNCTION IN DIABETIC PATIENTS

Objective: Hypertension increases risk of kidney damage. However the desired target of blood pressure with decline of eGFR is still uncertain in diabetic patients. Our objective is to determine the prevalence of renal diseases in a 10 years cohort study in a primary care clinic and desired mean systolic blood pressure (SBP) to reduce the deterioration of renal function in diabetic patients. Design and Method: This is a 10 years retrospective cohort study of randomly selected patients aged 30–89 year old attending a primary care clinic. Demographic data, hypertension, diabetes, mean SBP, renal function (determined by rate of decline in eGFR by CKD-epi per year, mL/min/1.73 m2), were captured from patients’ records from 1998- 2007. Patients were subdivided into three groups (mean SBP ≤ 130 mmHg, 131–139 mmHg and ≥ 140 mmHg) and its relation to renal function was compared in both diabetes and non- diabetes patients. Results: A total of 1518 patients were entered into our analysis after excluding 19 patients who did not have serial creatinine levels. At baseline, age in years (mean ± SD) was 56.5 ± 10.1. A total of 875 (60.1%) were DM and 1277 (86.9%) were hypertensive patients. eGFR (Mean ± SD) was 80.1 ± 29.9 (baseline), 68.6 ± 29.7 (in 2007) and -1.21 ± 2.3 (rate of decline per year). 259 (57.4%) diabetic patients developed CKD over the 10 years study. The rate of decline in eGFR was significantly increased with increasing BP grouping in diabetes patients, p < 0.002. We found that there was 3 times higher of rate of decline of eGFR in diabetes patients compared to those who are non-diabetes. Conclusions: Diabetic patients had the higher rate of decline in eGFR. This can be prevented by targeting standard SBP control which is < 140 mmHg.

(538) - Proteinuria the First Year After Heart Transplantation Is Associated with a Higher Rate of Decline in Glomerular Filtration Rate

(538) - Proteinuria the First Year After Heart Transplantation Is Associated with a Higher Rate of Decline in Glomerular Filtration Rate

Phase 1b Study of Abiraterone Acetate Plus Prednisone and Docetaxel in Patients with Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer

Coadministration of docetaxel and abiraterone acetate plus prednisone (AA + P) may benefit patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) because of complementary mechanisms of action. COU-AA-206 was a phase 1b study to determine the safe dose combination of docetaxel and AA + P in three cohorts of chemotherapy-naïve mCRPC patients. Twenty-two patients received escalating doses of docetaxel plus AA + P. The primary endpoint was the proportion of patients with a dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) between weeks 2 and 7. The recommended phase 2 dose (RP2D) was the highest safe combination of docetaxel plus AA + P. Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) changes and intensive pharmacokinetic parameters for each drug were evaluated. Docetaxel 75mg/m2 + AA 1000mg + P 10mg was deemed the RP2D, with DLT in one of six patients. PSA declines from baseline of ≥50% and ≥90% were observed for 85.7% and 66.7% of patients, respectively. During median follow-up of 14.5 mo, eight patients had PSA progression and six had radiographic progression or died. Systemic exposure was comparable for docetaxel and abiraterone when given alone or in combination. Studies are ongoing to confirm the efficacy of potent androgen receptor–targeted therapy plus taxane in early mCRPC. Patient summaryThe combination of hormonal therapy and chemotherapy may improve outcomes in men with metastatic prostate cancer. This study demonstrates the ability to combine the hormonal therapy agent abiraterone acetate, plus prednisone, and the chemotherapy drug docetaxel with an acceptable side effect profile. A high rate of prostate-specific antigen decline was seen, but the study was small and additional research is needed before this becomes a standard approach.

Persistently high exhaled nitric oxide and loss of lung function in controlled asthma

BackgroundsIt remains unclear whether a persistently high exhaled nitric oxide fraction (FeNO) in patients with controlled asthma is associated with the progressive loss of lung function. MethodsThis was a 3-year prospective study. We examined the changes in pre- and post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) and FeNO in 140 patients with controlled asthma. We initially determined the FeNO cut-off point for identifying patients with a rapid decline in FEV1 (>40 mL/yr). Next, a total of 122 patients who maintained high or non-high FeNO were selected, and the associations between the FeNO trend and changes in FEV1 and bronchodilator response (BDR) were investigated. ResultsA FeNO level >40.3 ppb yielded 43% sensitivity and 86% specificity for identifying patients with a rapid decline in FEV1. Patients with persistently high FeNO had higher rates of decline in FEV1 (42.7 ± 37.5 mL/yr) than patients with non-high FeNO (16.7 ± 31.5 mL/yr) (p < 0.0005). The changes in BDR from baseline to the end of the study, in patients who had high or non-high levels of FeNO were −0.8% and 0.1%, respectively (p < 0.01). In a multivariate analysis adjusted by age, body mass index, asthma control, blood eosinophil numbers, and FEV1% of predicted, a FeNO level of ≥40 ppb was independently associated with an accelerated decline in FEV1 (p < 0.05). ConclusionsThis study suggests that FeNO is potentially valuable tool for identifying individuals who are at risk of a progressive loss of lung function among patients with controlled asthma.

Harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) abundance within the Firth of Tay and Eden Estuary, Scotland: recent trends and extrapolation to extinction

Abstract Aerial surveys have detected alarming declines in counts of harbour seals in several regions across Scotland. Demographic data and simple models were used to examine the recent decline in the numbers of harbour seals counted in one population within a Special Area of Conservation (SAC) on the east coast of Scotland. The models suggest that the continuation of current trends would result in the species effectively disappearing from this area within the next 20 years. While the cause of the decline is unknown, it must be reducing adult survival because the high rate of decline cannot be wholly accounted for by changes in other demographic parameters. Recovery of the population to the abundance recorded at the time the SAC was designated (2005) is likely to take at least 40 years, even if the cause of the decline is immediately identified and removed. The models suggest that partial removal of the cause can have only limited benefits to population recovery, and there are unlikely to be any long‐term benefits from introducing or reintroducing additional individuals while the underlying problem persists. Therefore, if the population of harbour seals in this area is to recover it is essential that the sources of the increased mortality are identified and measures are put in place to manage these. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd.