High Casualty Research Articles

Estimating shaking-induced casualties and building damage for global earthquake events: a proposed modelling approach

Recent earthquakes such as the Haiti earthquake of 12 January 2010 and the Qinghai earthquake on 14 April 2010 have highlighted the importance of rapid estimation of casualties after the event for humanitarian response. Both of these events resulted in surprisingly high death tolls, casualties and survivors made homeless. In the Mw = 7.0 Haiti earthquake, over 200,000 people perished with more than 300,000 reported injuries and 2 million made homeless. The Mw = 6.9 earthquake in Qinghai resulted in over 2,000 deaths with a further 11,000 people with serious or moderate injuries and 100,000 people have been left homeless in this mountainous region of China. In such events relief efforts can be significantly benefitted by the availability of rapid estimation and mapping of expected casualties. This paper contributes to ongoing global efforts to estimate probable earthquake casualties very rapidly after an earthquake has taken place. The analysis uses the assembled empirical damage and casualty data in the Cambridge Earthquake Impacts Database (CEQID) and explores data by event and across events to test the relationships of building and fatality distributions to the main explanatory variables of building type, building damage level and earthquake intensity. The prototype global casualty estimation model described here uses a semi-empirical approach that estimates damage rates for different classes of buildings present in the local building stock, and then relates fatality rates to the damage rates of each class of buildings. This approach accounts for the effect of the very different types of buildings (by climatic zone, urban or rural location, culture, income level etc), on casualties. The resulting casualty parameters were tested against the overall casualty data from several historical earthquakes in CEQID; a reasonable fit was found.

The cost-effectiveness of mandatory 20 mph zones for the prevention of injuries

Traffic calming and speed limits are major public health strategies for further reducing road injuries, especially for vulnerable pedestrians such as children and the elderly. We conducted a cost-benefit analysis (CBA-favoured by transport economists) alongside a cost-utility analysis (CUA-favoured by health economists) of mandatory 20 mph zones, providing a unique opportunity to compare assumptions and results. A CUA from the public sector perspective and a CBA from a broader societal perspective. One-way, threshold and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were undertaken. In low casualty areas the intervention was not cost-effective regardless of approach (CUA: cost per QALY = £429 800; CBA: net present value = -£25 500). In high casualty areas, the intervention was cost-effective from the CBA (a saving of £90 600), but not from the CUA [cost per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) = £86 500; assuming National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's benchmark for approving health technologies]. Mandatory 20 mph zones may be cost-effective in high casualty areas when a CBA from a societal perspective is considered. Although CBA may appear, in principle, more appropriate, the quality, age or absence of reliable data for many parameters means that there is a great deal of uncertainty and the results should be interpreted with caution.

Revealed Cost Tolerance and Power Asymmetries: The Reputational Consequences of Casualty Sensitivity during War

This paper examines whether combatants’ willingness to suffer casualties in pursuit of their wartime objectives has reputational consequences. I argue that those who are willing to suffer high casualties gain a reputation for having a high cost tolerance that helps them deter future challenges, while those who give up after suffering few casualties acquire a reputation for having a low cost tolerance which makes their potential adversaries more willing to challenge them in the aftermath of war. This is especially true when the combatants face weak challengers, because these actors tend to adopt strategies that specifically target the cost tolerance of their opponents. Stronger challengers tend to adopt strategies that target the military capabilities or war making capacity of their opponents, and are therefore less sensitive to new information about their adversaries’ cost tolerance. Thus, the reputational consequences of casualty sensitivity are conditioned by power asymmetries. I test this argument against competing hypotheses using data on casualties, war outcomes, and militarized dispute initiation from 1816-2004. I find that, as predicted, challengers with fewer material resources are more likely to target combatants that suffer low casualties in losing wars, while the behavior of challengers with more material resources is unaffected.

Sweatshops at Sea: Merchant Seamen in the World's First Globalized Industry, from 1812 to the Present (review)

Reviewed by: Sweatshops at Sea: Merchant Seamen in the World's First Globalized Industry, from 1812 to the Present James P. Kraft Sweatshops at Sea: Merchant Seamen in the World's First Globalized Industry, from 1812 to the Present. By Leon Fink. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press, 2011. 288 pp. $34.95 (cloth). Labor historians have studied myriad occupational groups, almost all of which are "landlubbers." In this interesting new book, Leon Fink focuses on seafarers, and more specifically on their changing conditions of employment. Sweatshops at Sea: Merchant Seamen in the World's First Globalized Industry, from 1812 to the Present, shows how a host of American and British labor laws gradually abolished sweatshop-like conditions in the commercial shipping business. It also shows, however, that contemporary maritime workers still face major problems and challenges. The book relies on a wealth of primary and secondary sources, from trade union records and parliamentary debates to fictional accounts of life at sea. The result is a meaningful contribution to labor and maritime history. The work begins in the early nineteenth century, when the British Royal Navy boarded scores of American merchant ships for the purpose of impressing alleged deserters. By the War of 1812, the Royal Navy had impressed several thousand American sailors (typically the most skilled and capable). The practices of "press gangs" riled up British and American citizens, and brought much needed attention to conditions of employment in shipping. After the war, social reformers increasingly championed "sailor's rights," insisting that public authorities apply national principles to the high seas. In the 1830s and 1840s, the British Parliament finally dismantled a longstanding regulatory regime that showed little regard for the safety and welfare of maritime labor. Parliament consolidated new maritime regulations in the Merchant Shipping Act of 1854, which further liberalized the British economy. The United States had already embraced relatively liberal, "free-trade" principles, but had done little to advance the welfare and safety of its own maritime workers. Nineteenth-century novels spoke pointedly to the paternalistic and often brutal nature of labor relations in the nation's shipping industry. The riveting, sea-based stories of "realist" writers like Herman Melville and Richard Henry Dana described the tyrannical relationship between many shipmasters and the men they commanded, and thus added momentum to campaigns against sailor abuse. By the Civil War, Congress had passed several bills that improved the lives of seafarers, including legislation that regulated the practices of port-city boardinghouses, where "crimps" had their own ways of exploiting seafarers. Efforts to improve conditions at sea often collided with sectional concerns. Southern legislators successfully [End Page 443] blocked efforts to allow free black sailors to leave ships that docked in Southern ports, and almost prevented Congress from passing a naval appropriation bill that included an anti-flogging measure. The conditions of seafarers were intimately connected to race relations in the South, and to disciplinary practices on Southern plantations. The future of ordinary seamen looked bright in the early twentieth century. In Great Britain, new legislation had not only provided seafarers with better living accommodations but also eight-hour work shifts and representation on new maritime agencies. It had also required shippers to prove that their ocean-going vessels were "seaworthy" (and not "coffin ships"), which reduced the high casualty rate among seamen. American officials soon passed similar legislation, including a bill that prohibited the imprisonment of maritime workers for desertion. Of the various legislators who supported such reforms, none was more important than Samuel Plimsoll or his American counterpart Robert La Follette. Both men championed sailors' rights in the face of fierce opposition from shippers and conservative politicians, who saw this liberal activism as an attack on the basic foundations of free enterprise. Trade unions played a major role in this story, especially the International Transport Workers' Federation (ITF). Established in 1896, the London-based labor organization brought a variety of transportation workers under a single umbrella, including dockworkers as well as ordinary seamen. An ITF strike against ocean liners and shipping associations in 1911 produced tangible benefits for the union and created a new sense of global solidarity among maritime workers. But the coming of...

‘The Weak Link’? The Perception of the German Working Class by RAF Bomber Command, 1940-1945

During the Second World War the German urban working class became a deliberate object of attack by RAF Bomber Command, resulting in more than three hundred thousand deaths. This article examines the evolution of bombing strategy during the war to show why workers were targeted and the assumptions that lay behind it. The emphasis on breaking morale was one motive but it became clear that expectations of a possible workers' revolt in Germany were fanciful and by 1944 any prospect of using the bombing of working-class districts as a political objective was largely abandoned. Instead, bombing working-class areas became part of the strategy of economic warfare. Calculations were made based on the British experience of the Blitz to show that destruction of housing, amenities and services, and a high casualty rate, was a surer way of reducing productivity than attacking individual factories. Bomber Command maintained this strategic objective throughout the war, while veiling its deliberate attack on civilians fr...

Characteristics and risk factors of traffic injuries in Wenzhou part of Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou highway

Objective To study the characteristics and explore risk factors of traffic injuries in Wenzhou part of the Ningbo-Taizhou-Wenzhou (Yong-tai-wen for short) highway during 2005-2009 so as to provide scientific evidence for promoting prevention and cure level of highway traffic injury. Methods The original data of traffic accident in Wenzhou part of the Yong-tai-wen highway during 2005-2009 were collected to carry out the descriptive epidemiological investigation of the injury characteristics.Simultaneously,multi-factor analysis was conducted to screen out the risk factors for traffic accidents. Results A total of 308 traffic accidents involving 603 casualties (157 deaths) were interviewed during 2005-2009.The casualties from expressway traffic accidents declined yearly,but annual death rate was still very high (26.04％).Meanwhile,the males were more likely subjected to traffic injuries than females.The most common injury sites were the head and limb and the main fatal injuries were the head and pelvic injuries.Accident-prone period was from 0:00 to 8:00 in the morning and traffic scenarios were mainly characterized by rear collision (39％).Risk factors for traffic accidents included poor lighting conditions,overloaded vehicles on the road sections,male drivers,driving without a license,fatigue driving and speeding. Conclusions Traffic accidents present high incidence and casualty rates,and are mainly resulted from overloaded and fatigue driving.Therefore,the training and education on safe driving should be done particularly for the males and low driving age drivers to strictly forbid the overload driving,fatigue driving or overspeed driving. Key words: Accidents, traffic; Risk factors; Highway

OPERATION OVERLORD - A SYNOPSIS OF THE D-DAY LANDINGS

Arguably the most famous date of the Second World War is the 6th June 1944, better known as D-Day, the date on which the Allies returned to the continent of Europe in Operation Overlord, the greatest amphibious assault ever mounted in the history of warfare. In the first two hours alone 156 000 Allied troops went ashore, forming the vanguard for the army of over two million men that was to follow. Although the officers who planned the invasion predicted that the Allies would suffer a tremendously high casualty rate, the inescapable fact was that in order to come to grips with the German Army and destroy it, sooner or later it would be necessary to invade the mainland of Europe. The enthusiasm with which this concept was embraced usually varied in proportion to the distance of the individual from the potential invasion coast.

Medical complications associated with earthquakes

Major earthquakes are some of the most devastating natural disasters. The epidemiology of earthquake-related injuries and mortality is unique for these disasters. Because earthquakes frequently affect populous urban areas with poor structural standards, they often result in high death rates and mass casualties with many traumatic injuries. These injuries are highly mechanical and often multisystem, requiring intensive curative medical and surgical care at a time when the local and regional medical response capacities have been at least partly disrupted. Many patients surviving blunt and penetrating trauma and crush injuries have subsequent complications that lead to additional morbidity and mortality. Here, we review and summarise earthquake-induced injuries and medical complications affecting major organ systems.

German Suffering in the Franco-German War, 1870/71

Suffering during the Franco–Prussian War of 1870/71 has to be interpreted in the context of three developments: the willingness to alleviate wartime suffering, which had led to the foundation of the International Red Cross and the Geneva Convention a few years earlier, the industrialization of war, which had enormously increased the efficiency of the weaponry, and the nationalization of war. For many Germans, the outcome of the war justified the wartime suffering, which was often trivialized in the media. The small number of authors who saw the high casualty numbers and the pain of the victims as a warning about the consequences of modern warfare usually belonged to the anti-Prussian opposition. Nationalist euphoria in the face of victory and German unification drowned out such critics, whose patriotism was in doubt. Finally, the remembrance of the war during the Kaiserreich aimed largely at celebrating the triumph of the German army and the foundation of the national state. The glorification of the military was hardly compatible with a detailed description of the misery of the battlefield and the pain of war victims. In 1870/71 and in the subsequent decades, nationalism overwhelmed and eventually excluded a humanitarian narrative.

(P2-39) Public Health Safety for Traditional Mass Gatherings in India: A 10-Year Analysis

IntroductionIn the past decade, India has witnessed many lapses in crowd safety during mass gatherings. The high casualty rate in stampedes during traditional mass gatherings has prompted the study of these events. Wide variations exist in casualty rates for similar events, and key issues in healthcare services in these special situations were addressed in the Indian context.MethodsFrom 2001–2010, Mass gathering data were collected from news items reported in the archives of newspapers, “The Times of India”, “The Hindu” and “The Indian Express”. The keywords used were: “stampede”, “mass gathering”, “mass-gathering events”, “mass-gathering incidents”, “crowd”, and “crowd management”. The study included triggers for the incident and the number of casualties (dead and injured) in each incident.ResultsIn 27 separate mass gatherings in India, there were 936 dead and 540 injured casualties. The unique characteristics of mass gatherings in India included a predominance of old and vulnerable people in traditional mass gatherings, in contrast to the young and middle-aged groups who gather for music and sporting events elsewhere. Further, alcohol/substance abuse, brawls, and violent behavior were absent at traditional Indian mass gatherings. Non-traditional mass gatherings accounted for a lesser number of incidents in India, and were located in movie theatres and railway stations.ConclusionsIn a populous country like India, traditional mass gatherings predominate, and ensuring the health, safety, and security of the public at such events will require an understanding of crowd behavior, critical crowd densities, and crowd capacities in the Indian context. However, planning for mass gatherings can be developed using the existing body of knowledge of mass-casualty preparedness, food safety, and health promotion.

Preventing Mass Killings: Determining the Optimal Allocation of Security Resources between Crowded Targets

This paper (1) translates theoretical notions of optimal security allocations into concrete policy recommendations and (2) compares these recommendations with actual transport security policy and transport security allocations in Norway. I argue that when protecting against mass-casualty attacks, priority should be given to potential targets that would suffer high casualties and that have a high number of foreign travelers, low employee density, many hiding places, many entry/exit points, high passenger anonymity, and high system fragility. Interviews with Norwegian transport authorities suggest that budget constraints and international commitments, rather than concerns for efficiency at the aggregate (national) level, determine the authorities’ allocation of security resources.

Earthquake Impact Scale

With the advent of the USGS prompt assessment of global earthquakes for response (PAGER) system, which rapidly assesses earthquake impacts, U.S. and international earthquake responders are reconsidering their automatic alert and activation levels and response procedures. To help facilitate rapid and appropriate earthquake response, an Earthquake Impact Scale (EIS) is proposed on the basis of two complementary criteria. On the basis of the estimated cost of damage, one is most suitable for domestic events; the other, on the basis of estimated ranges of fatalities, is generally more appropriate for global events, particularly in developing countries. Simple thresholds, derived from the systematic analysis of past earthquake impact and associated response levels, are quite effective in communicating predicted impact and response needed after an event through alerts of green (little or no impact), yellow (regional impact and response), orange (national-scale impact and response), and red (international response). Corresponding fatality thresholds for yellow, orange, and red alert levels are 1, 100, and 1,000, respectively. For damage impact, yellow, orange, and red thresholds are triggered by estimated losses reaching $1M, $100M, and $1B, respectively. The rationale for a dual approach to earthquake alerting stems from the recognition that relatively high fatalities, injuries, and homelessness predominate in countries in which local building practices typically lend themselves to high collapse and casualty rates, and these impacts lend to prioritization for international response. In contrast, financial and overall societal impacts often trigger the level of response in regions or countries in which prevalent earthquake resistant construction practices greatly reduce building collapse and resulting fatalities. Any newly devised alert, whether economic- or casualty-based, should be intuitive and consistent with established lexicons and procedures. Useful alerts should also be both specific (although allowably uncertain) and actionable. In this analysis, an attempt is made at both simple and intuitive color-coded alerting criteria; yet the necessary uncertainty measures by which one can gauge the likelihood for the alert to be over- or underestimated are preserved. The essence of the proposed impact scale and alerting is that actionable loss information is now available in the immediate aftermath of significant earthquakes worldwide on the basis of quantifiable loss estimates. Utilizing EIS, PAGER’s rapid loss estimates can adequately recommend alert levels and suggest appropriate response protocols, despite the uncertainties; demanding or awaiting observations or loss estimates with a high level of accuracy may increase the losses.

17 juin 1940, le plus grand désastre maritime Britannique?

2010 is the 70th birthday commemoration of a little known maritime catastrophe, which to this day is still mired in some secrecy. In June 1940, ahead of rapid German advances, allied troops in France organized a precipitous evacuation towards England. The troop transport Lancastria took on board thousands of soldiers and civilians.Attacked by the Luftwaffe, she sank in 24 minutes with high casualties. This event occurring on the day that France requested an armistice, Churchill, from now on alone vis-à-vis Hitler, blanketed this catastrophe in secrecy. Thanks to the testimony of many survivors and rescuers anxious to pay homage to the victims, we can reconstitute with precision this drama.

Safety on pedestrian crossing

Major road traffic accident victim category on Sri Lankan roads is pedestrians. There are many reasons for high pedestrian casualties. Pedestrian behaviour, pedestrian facilities, law enforcement and driver behaviour are...

Capturing Insights to Reduce Future Warfighter Fatalities

Until recently, there has been a widely-held belief that if an infantryman survives the first few combat encounters or firefights of a deployment, the Soldier is likely to survive the full tour of duty. Though it has been discussed anecdotally that military units tend to suffer higher casualty rates in their first engagements with the enemy, the “first five firefights” belief has not been validated. In this study, we examined the “first five firefights” concept to evaluate if Soldiers have an increased chance of becoming a fatality during their early days of deployment. By gathering and analyzing Soldier fatality data, conducting interviews with Soldiers, and evaluating human performance models of common fatality scenarios, we found the “first five” concept to be untrue. Rather, we identified that Soldiers are particularly vulnerable to becoming a fatality within the first three months of deployment. Soldiers also experience a period of increased vulnerability at mid-deployment and again near the end of the deployment. These vulnerabilities, explored through interviews with Soldiers, have implications for changes in training, tactics, techniques, and procedures in today's military.

Student-Centered Learning Environment for Disaster-Mitigating Engineering Design and Deployment in Developing Regions

A comprehensive student-centered learning environment was created in a funded course sequence on disaster-mitigating design and practice at the UNIVERSITY NAME GOES HERE. It explored solutions for mitigating earthquake damages in developing regions, which suffer disproportionally high casualties. Undergraduate students were in charge from planning to implementation, including a critiqued literature review on socio-cultural environments and traditional technologies, evaluating low-cost damping systems in laboratory testing, preparing architectural designs per functional needs of its host community, performing structural calculations per the International Building Code, and coordinating its implementation. Faculty organized site visits and guest lectures and served as facilitators who contributed sessions on seismology, creativity, and entrepreneurship. Activities addressed accreditation outcomes, accommodated different learning styles, and were designed on Bloom’s taxonomy of educational objectives. Collaborating with local Engineers Without Borders chapters enabled two successful trips to a village of approximately 3,200 inhabitants located in rural El Salvador. The team assessed site conditions and built a new health clinic of reinforced masonry with concrete beams on rubber pad foundation dampers. The local community participated in planning and volunteered significant labor to “make the project their own.” Recommendations are presented on implementing learning experiences that groom globally aware and socially engaged young engineers.

One for all

PurposeReviews the latest management developments across the globe and pinpoints practical implications from cutting‐edge research and case studies.Design/methodology/approachThis briefing is prepared by an independent writer who adds their own impartial comments and places the articles in context.FindingsMany people still cling to the misconception that big is always best. For major business organizations, one upshot can be complacency founded on the belief that size alone provides immunity against the challenges and difficulties faced by others. History is, however, littered with high profile casualties of this flawed logic.Practical implicationsProvides strategic insights and practical thinking that have influenced some of the world's leading organizations.Social implicationsThis briefing provides insights on the cultural environment and changes that need to occur to implement innovation planning methods within large enterprises.Originality/valueThe briefing saves busy executives and researchers hours of reading time by selecting only the very best, most pertinent information and presenting it in a condensed and easy‐to digest format.

Death from the Heavens: A History of Strategic Bombing

Reviewed by: Death from the Heavens: A History of Strategic Bombing Harold Dorn (bio) Death from the Heavens: A History of Strategic Bombing. By Kenneth P. Werrell. Annapolis, Md.: Naval Institute Press, 2009. Pp. xv+332. $44.95. The history of military aviation is packed into the 105 years from the Wright brothers' wood-and-canvas contrivance to today's astonishing technological innovations—missiles fired from submarines, pilotless aircraft, and "smart" bombs. Kenneth Werrell has chosen to write an account of one dimension of this dismal history: strategic bombing. It is fraught with moral and political issues and controversies. Many millions of civilians have been killed or injured, sometimes accidentally ("collateral damage"), sometimes as victims of indiscriminate bombing, and sometimes as deliberate targets. Most of these civilian casualties were the result of American operations, a circumstance that muddies the moral and political waters. Werrell skirts these issues and devotes most of his text to the aircraft used to carry out the operations and to the strategic principles that guided them. Strategic bombing, which means the bombing of the enemy's rear areas, including cities, rather than auxiliary operations like the support of ground forces, was conducted extensively by the American, British, and German air forces during World War II. Werrell's knowledge of the technical specifications of the aircraft that carried out the attacks is impressive: "The manufacturer modified the aircraft by moving the fuel tanks from the nacelles into the fuselage, substituting props rotating in the same direction for opposite rotation, and using high power engines, which merited its redesignation as the O/400" (p. 17). He also gives clear accounts of the strategic bombing doctrines of its early advocates, who expected the bomber to bring about short wars, albeit with high civilian casualties. He quotes British prime minister Stanley Baldwin, who reported to Parliament in 1932 that "there is no power on earth that can protect [the civilian] from bombing.… The only defense is the offense, which means you have to kill more women and children than the enemy if you want to save yourselves" (p. 32). In his final chapter, Werrell offers a sober assessment of strategic bombing in the twentieth century, asking whether it has "delivered on the promises of its advocates." His provisional answer is negative—it did not break civilian morale, and while the attacks disrupted the enemy's war effort, they were not decisive: "The record during its first century reveals that strategic bombardment is a case study of promises unfulfilled" (p. 300). On the moral, political, and legal controversies surrounding strategic bombing, Werrell is disappointingly brief, in contrast to his extensive discussion of the technical and doctrinal dimensions of the subject. The ongoing controversy over the decision to use the atomic bomb is dismissed in a few sentences with the common opinion that it was justified by "the desire to win the war as quickly as possible, with the fewest American casualties" [End Page 1035] (p. 148). The book would have more to ponder and chew on if Werrell had at least referred to some of the political factors that may have influenced the decision to use the bomb (see e.g. Gar Alperovitz, The Decision to Use the Atomic Bomb [1995]). And on the legality of strategic bombing, Werrell turns a blind eye. There are some grounds to believe that strategic bombing overlapped the doctrine of war crimes. Telford Taylor, who was chief U.S. prosecutor at the Nuremberg war-crimes trials, believed that American pilots shot down in North Vietnam should have been tried as war criminals because their actions violated the Geneva Conventions that forbid indiscriminate bombing. And Robert McNamara, secretary of defense at the time, later estimated that between 1965 and 1968 American bombardment of North Vietnam caused more than a million deaths and injuries each year (Robert Richter, "War Hero or War Criminal?" Counterpunch, 14 October 2008, http://www.counterpunch.org/richter10142008.html [accessed 18 May 2010]). A few untidy facts such as these could have found their place in a historical study of aerial bombardment. They would have given the book the provocative quality that the subject calls for. As it stands, this book is long...

Inauguration of the first Psychological Support Center for Disaster Victims in Korea

Disasters can strike uncontrollably whenever or wherever, leaving horrendous marks of physical and psychological damage on people upon their passing. Asia remains the most widely affected area of the world, with high death tolls, casualties, and economic losses recorded in past years. In fact, a developed country like South Korea incurs huge deficits from disaster-related adversities. Restoration efforts and assistance for disaster survivors are generously provided by the Korean government. However, it is only recently that cases of postdisaster mental problems have been given attention. This article argues that, although material relief helps disaster victims to regain their physical losses, it is equally important to aid their psychological needs to prevent long-term mental health problems. This article highlights Korea's first regional Psychological Support Center for disaster victims, which can be accessed online. With this Center, the country continues to strive in providing her people with holistic approaches to further enhance each citizen's quality of life.

Large oil tankers and the Baltic marine environment: A statistical survey

The short Baltic export route for Russian oil is an attractive source of supply for the European energy market. The article examines the Russian oil export trade in the Baltic based on Automatic Identification System (AIS) data from 2005 matched with supplementary data. The first part of the article gives a survey of activities and characteristics of 261 large crude oil tankers, their flag states and owner countries. The second part views the data in the context of accidental oil spill risk. Greek and Russian owners are leading carriers in this trade. Russia plays a double leading role as oil exporter and shipowning country, securing major cargo shares for nationally owned vessels, while also giving a preferential spot in the trade to Greek owners. Where environmental aspects are concerned, previous research has linked vessel characteristics with the risk of casualty. Knowledge of flag, age, ownership and activity levels adds useful information about environmental risk. The data show that flags associated with very high casualty or detention probabilities were represented by 18% of the activity in this trade. Older vessels have a similar share, and at this particular time probably represent the more serious threat of accidental oil spills.