High Antiretroviral Treatment Coverage Research Articles

The impact of antiretroviral treatment and child-focused unconditional cash transfers on child mortality

Although there is sufficient evidence in the epidemiological literature that antiretroviral treatment (ART) reduces child mortality, there is limited evidence of its effect in the socio-economic determinants of child mortality literature. Furthermore, evidence on the effect of child focused unconditional cash transfers (UCTs) on child mortality is limited, especially in the African context. Using South Africa's provincial level data over the period 2001 to 2019, we evaluate the effect of ART and child focused UCTs on child mortality. We use the two-stage instrumental variable mean group estimator. We find that ART reduces child mortality. Moreover, we find an inverted U-shaped non-linear relationship between UCTs and child mortality that is contingent to the level of cash transfer coverage. Our analyses also reveal that UCTs improve the effect of ART on child mortality by enhancing access and adherence to treatment. While the focus of our analyses was on the child mortality effects of ART and UCTs, our findings reaffirm the well-documented impacts of factors such as public health expenditure, HIV/AIDS, female education, and health worker density on child mortality. Collectively, the combination of high ART and UCTs coverage, increased public health expenditure, enhanced female education, and improved health worker density, represents value for money for policymakers and funders. These areas should be prioritised to improve child well-being.

HIV risk behaviour, viraemia, and transmission across HIV cascade stages including low-level viremia: Analysis of 14 cross-sectional population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.

As antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage for people living with HIV (PLHIV) increases, HIV programmes require up-to-date information about evolving HIV risk behaviour and transmission risk, including those with low-level viremia (LLV; >50 to ≤1000 copies/mL), to guide prevention priorities. We aimed to assess differences in sexual risk behaviours, distribution of viral load (VL) and proportion of transmission across PLHIV subgroups. We analysed data from Population-based HIV Impact Assessment surveys in 14 sub-Saharan African countries during 2015-2019. We estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) of self-reported HIV high-risk behaviour (multiple partners and condomless sex) across cascade stages via generalised estimation equations. We modelled the proportions of transmission from each subgroup using relative self-reported sexual risk, a Hill function for transmission rate by VL, and proportions within cascade stages from surveys and UNAIDS country estimates for 2010-2020. Compared to PLHIV with undetectable VL (≤50 copies/mL), undiagnosed PLHIV (aPR women: 1.28 [95% CI: 1.08-1.52]; men: 1.61 [1.33-1.95]) and men diagnosed but untreated (2.06 [1.52-2.78]) were more likely to self-report high-risk sex. High-risk behaviour was not significantly associated with LLV. Mean VL was similar among undiagnosed, diagnosed but untreated, and on ART but non-suppressed sub-groups. Across surveys, undiagnosed and diagnosed but untreated contributed most to transmission (40-91% and 1-41%, respectively), with less than 1% from those with LLV. Between 2010 and 2020, the proportion of transmission from individuals on ART but non-suppressed increased. In settings with high ART coverage, effective HIV testing, ART linkage, and retention remain priorities to reduce HIV transmission. Persons with LLV are an increasing share of PLHIV but their contribution to HIV transmission was small. Improving suppression among PLHIV on ART with VL ≥1000 copies/mL will become increasingly important.

Factors associated with vertical transmission of HIV in the Western Cape, South Africa: a retrospective cohort analysis.

Monitoring mother-infant pairs with HIV exposure is needed to assess the effectiveness of vertical transmission (VT) prevention programmes and progress towards VT elimination. We used routinely collected data on infants with HIV exposure, born May 2018-April 2021 in the Western Cape, South Africa, with follow-up through mid-2022. We assessed the proportion of infants diagnosed with HIV at birth (≤7 days), 10 weeks (>1 to 14 weeks) and >14 weeks as proxies for intrauterine, intrapartum/early breastfeeding and late breastfeeding transmission, respectively. We used mixed-effects Poisson regression to assess factors associated with VT in mothers known with HIV by delivery. We included 50,461 infants born to mothers known with HIV by delivery. HIV was diagnosed in 894 (1.8%) infants. Among mothers, 51% started antiretroviral treatment (ART) before and 27% during pregnancy; 17% restarted during pregnancy after ≥6 months interruption; and 6% had no recorded ART during pregnancy. Most pregnancy ART regimens included non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (83%). Of mothers with available results (90% with viral load [VL]; 70% with CD4), VL nearest delivery was <100 copies/ml in 78% and CD4 count ≥350 cells/μl in 62%. HIV-PCR results were available for 86%, 67% and 48% of eligible infants at birth, 10 weeks and >14 weeks. Among these infants, 0.9%, 0.4% and 1.5% were diagnosed positive at birth, 10 weeks and >14 weeks, respectively. Among infants diagnosed with HIV, 43%, 16% and 41% were diagnosed at these respective time periods. Among mothers with VL<100, 100-999, 1000-99,000 and ≥100,000 copies/ml nearest delivery, infant HIV diagnosis incidence was 0.4%, 2.3%, 6.6% and 18.4%, respectively. Increased VT was strongly associated with recent elevated maternal VL with a seven-fold increased rate with even modestly elevated VL (100-999 vs. <100 copies/ml). VT was also associated with unknown/low maternal CD4, maternal age <20 years, no antenatal ART, later maternal ART start/restart in pregnancy and ART gaps. Despite high maternal ART coverage and routine postnatal prophylaxis, ongoing VT remains a concern. Timing of infant HIV diagnoses suggests intrapartum and/or breastfeeding transmission in nearly 60%. Interventions to ensure retention on ART and sustained maternal viral suppression are needed to reduce VT.

HIV Incidence in Botswana Rural Communities With High Antiretroviral Treatment Coverage: Results From the Botswana Combination Prevention Project, 2013-2017.

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project demonstrated a 30% reduction in community HIV incidence through expanded HIV testing, enhanced linkage to care, and universal antiretroviral treatment and exceeded the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets. We report rates and characteristics of incident HIV infections. The Botswana Combination Prevention Project was a community-randomized controlled trial conducted in 30 rural/periurban Botswana communities from 2013 to 2017. Home-based and mobile HIV-testing campaigns were conducted in 15 intervention communities, with 39% of participants testing at least twice. We assessed the HIV incidence rate [IR; number of new HIV infections per 100 person-years (py) at risk] among repeat testers and risk factors with a Cox proportional hazards regression model. During 27,517 py, 195 (women: 79%) of 18,597 became HIV-infected (0.71/100 py). Women had a higher IR (1.01/100 py; 95% confidence interval: 0.99 to 1.02) than men (0.34/100 py; 95% confidence interval: 0.33 to 0.35). The highest IRs were among women aged 16-24 years (1.87/100 py) and men aged 25-34 years (0.56/100 py). The lowest IRs were among those aged 35-64 years (women: 0.41/100 py; men: 0.20/100 py). The hazard of incident infection was the highest among women aged 16-24 years (hazard ratio = 7.05). Sex and age were significantly associated with incidence (both P < 0.0001). Despite an overall reduction in HIV incidence and approaching the United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 95-95-95 targets, high HIV incidence was observed in adolescent girls and young women. These findings highlight the need for additional prevention services (pre-exposure prophylaxis and DREAMS) to achieve epidemic control in this subpopulation and increased efforts with men with undiagnosed HIV.

Prevalence of cardiovascular diseases in HIV positive patients: A comparative study between seropositive and seronegative patients living in Libreville, Gabon

The profile of HIV-associated cardiovascular disease has changed with the high coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART). Data are lacking in Gabon. To compare the type and the frequency of cardiovascular manifestations in hospitalized HIV-infected patients (PLHIV) and seronegative ones. This was a retrospective analytical study performed by analyzing the files of patients hospitalized for a cardiovascular diseases and who benefited from an HIV serology in the cardiology department of the centre hospitalier universitaire de Libreville from January 2015 to December 2018. The files of 82 PLHIV and 150 HIV negative were analyzed. The mean CD4 count in PLHIV was 189 ± 170/mm 3 and 45.1% were on ART. PLHIV were more frequently less than 50 years old (70.6% vs. 43.3% of HIV negative; P < 0.01) and they were more frequently female (67.1% vs. 36.0% of HIV negative; P < 0.01). Pericarditis (25.6% vs. 11.3% in seronegatives; P = 0.01) mainly due to tuberculous (85.2%), myocarditis (14.6% vs. 4.0% in seronegatives; P = 0.03) and repolarization disorders (32.9% vs. 15.3% in HIV negative; P < 0.01) predominated in PLHIV. Atheromatous vascular diseases were more frequent in HIV negative patients (23.1%) compared to seropositive (6.1%) ( P < 0.01). The death of PLHIV was mainly due to pericarditis (71.4%) while HIV negative patients died more frequently for heart failure (46.7%). The cardiovascular manifestations linked to HIV immunosuppression are still frequent in Libreville.

High Coverage of Antiretroviral Treatment With Annual Home-Based HIV Testing, Follow-up Linkage Services, and Implementation of Test and Start: Findings From the Chókwè Health Demographic Surveillance System, Mozambique, 2014-2019.

Early antiretroviral therapy (ART) is necessary for HIV epidemic control and depends on early diagnosis and successful linkage to care. Since 2014, annual household-based HIV testing and counseling and linkage services have been provided through the Chókwè Health and Demographic Surveillance System for residents testing HIV positive in this high HIV-burden district. District-wide Test and Start [T&S, ART for all people living with HIV (PLHIV)] began in August 2016, supported by systematic interventions to improve linkage to care and treatment. Annual rounds (R) of random household surveys were conducted to assess trends in population prevalence of ART use and viral load suppression (<1000 viral RNA copies/mL). Between R1 (April 2014-April 2015) and R5 (April 2018-Mar 2019), 46,090 (67.2%) of 68,620 residents aged 15-59 years were tested for HIV at home at least once, and 3711 were newly diagnosed with HIV and provided linkage services. Population prevalence of current ART use among PLHIV increased from 65.0% to 87.5% between R1 and R5. ART population prevalence was lowest among men aged 25-34 years (67.8%) and women aged 15-24 (78.0%), and highest among women aged 35-44 years (93.6%) and 45-59 years (93.7%) in R5. Viral load suppression prevalence increased among all PLHIV aged 15-59 years from 52.0% in R1 to 78.3% in R5. Between 2014 and 2019, Chókwè Health and Demographic Surveillance System residents surpassed the UNAIDS targets of ≥81% of PLHIV on ART and ≥73% virally suppressed. This achievement supports the combination of efforts from household-based HIV testing and counseling, support for linkage to care and treatment, and continued investments in T&S implementation.

Implementation of Universal HIV Testing and Treatment to Reduce HIV Incidence in Botswana: the Ya Tsie Study.

Antiretroviral treatment (ART) can dramatically reduce the risk of HIV transmission, but the feasibility of scaling up HIV testing, linkage and treatment to very high population levels, and its impact on population HIV incidence, were unknown. We review key findings from a community-randomized trial in which we evaluated the impact of "universal test and treat" (UTT) on population HIV incidence in Botswana, a resource-constrained country with both high HIV prevalence and high ART coverage before study inception. We conducted a community-randomized trial (the "Ya Tsie" trial or Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP)) in 30 villages in Botswana from 2013 to 2018, with the goal of determining whether a combination of prevention interventions-with a focus on universal HIV testing and treatment-would reduce population-level HIV incidence. The intervention included universal HIV testing (home-based and mobile), active linkage to HIV care and treatment with patient tracing for persons not linking, universal ART coverage, rapid ART start (at the first clinic visit), and enhanced male circumcision services. Botswana had very high HIV diagnosis, treatment, and viral suppression levels (approaching the UNAIDS "90-90-90" targets) prior to intervention roll-out. By study end, we were able to exceed the overall 95-95-95 coverage target of 86%: an estimated 88% of all persons living with HIV were on ART and had viral suppression in the Ya Tsie intervention arm. In addition, annual HIV incidence was 30% lower in the intervention arm as compared with the control arm over a 29-month follow-up period. With universal HIV testing and relatively simple linkage activities, it was possible to achieve one of the highest reported population levels of HIV diagnosis, linkage to care, and viral suppression globally and to reduce population HIV incidence by about one-third over a short period of time (< 3years). We were able to significantly increase population viral suppression and to decrease HIV incidence even in a resource-constrained setting with pre-existing very high testing and treatment coverage. Universal community-based HIV testing and tracing of individuals through the HIV care cascade were key intervention components.

Barriers and facilitators to linkage to care and ART initiation in the setting of high ART coverage in Botswana

ABSTRACTWe conducted a qualitative study using focus groups and in-depth interviews to explore barriers to and facilitators of linkage-to-care and antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation in Botswana. Participants were selected from communities receiving interventions through the Ya Tsie Study. Fifteen healthcare providers and 49 HIV-positive individuals participated. HIV-positive participants identified barriers including stigma, discrimination and overcrowded clinics, and negative staff attitudes; personal factors, such as a lack of acceptance of one’s HIV status, non-disclosure, and gender differences; along with lack of social/family support, and certain religious beliefs. Healthcare providers cited delayed test results, poverty, and transport difficulties as additional barriers. Major facilitators were support from healthcare providers, including home visits, social support, and knowing the benefits of ART. Participants were highly supportive of universal ART as a personal health measure. Our results highlighted a persistent structural health facility barrier: HIV-positive patients expressed strong discontent with HIV care/treatment being delivered differently than routine healthcare, feeling inconvenienced and stigmatized by separately designated locations and days of service. This barrier was particularly problematic for highly mobile persons. Addressing this structural barrier, which persists even in the context of high ART uptake, could bring gains in willingness to initiate ART and improved adherence in Botswana and elsewhere.

Body and mind: retention in antiretroviral treatment care is improved by mental health training of care providers in Ethiopia

BackgroundEthiopia has achieved a high coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART), but maintaining lifelong care is still a great challenge. Mental illnesses often co-exist with HIV/AIDS and may compromise the retention on ART. In order to improve prolonged retention in ART care, basic training in mental health care was introduced for ART providers, but this hasn’t been evaluated yet. The aim of this study was to examine if this training has improved patient retention in care.MethodA retrospective cohort study was employed to compare attrition from ART between clients attended by care provider trained with basic mental health service (exposed) and those in the standard ART follow-up care (unexposed) in public health facilities. A routine patient follow-up electronic database enrolled for ART between 2005 and 2017 was abstracted for the study. The Kaplan-Meier plot was used to compare the attrition rates between the two groups. The log-rank test was used to assess differences in the groups. The Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to determine predictors of attrition. We used estimated effect size of hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).ResultDuring the 12 years of observation, 8009 study participants under ART were followed for 33,498 person-years. The incidence of attrition was 6.5 per 100 person-years and 21% higher in the unexposed group (HR 1.21; 95% CI 1.1, 1.3), and retention in care was significantly higher in the mental health exposed group throughout the study period. WHO clinical staging III/IV, tuberculosis coinfection, the male gender, and poor functional status were independent risk factors for attrition.ConclusionWe found that clients in the group exposed to mental health care training tended to have better retention in ART care with some variation according to gender, WHO Clinical stage and functional status. Training of ART providers in mental health may be considered in order to strengthen ART retention in low resource settings.

High HIV-1 RNA Among Newly Diagnosed People in Botswana.

HIV-1 RNA level is strongly associated with HIV transmission risk. We sought to determine whether HIV-1 RNA level was associated with prior knowledge of HIV status among treatment-naive HIV-infected individuals in Botswana, a country with high rates of antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage. This information may be helpful in targeting HIV diagnosis and treatment efforts in similar high HIV prevalence settings in a population-based survey. HIV-infected individuals were identified during a household survey performed in 30 communities across Botswana. ART-naive persons with detectable HIV-1 RNA (>400 copies/mL) were divided into two groups, newly diagnosed and individuals tested in the past who knew about their HIV infection at the time of household visit, but had not taken ART. Levels of HIV-1 RNA were compared between groups, overall and by age and gender. Among 815 HIV-infected ART-naive persons with detectable virus, newly diagnosed individuals had higher levels of HIV-1 RNA (n = 490, median HIV-1 RNA 4.35, interquartile range (IQR) 3.79-4.91 log10 copies/mL) than those who knew about their HIV-positive status (n = 325, median HIV-1 RNA 4.10, IQR 3.55-4.68 log10 copies/mL; p values <.001, but p value = .011 after adjusting for age and gender). A nonsignificant trend for higher HIV-1 RNA was found among newly diagnosed men 30 years of age or older (median HIV-1 RNA 4.58, IQR 4.07-5.02 log10 copies/mL vs. 4.17, 3.61-4.71 log10 copies/mL). Newly diagnosed individuals have elevated levels of HIV-1 RNA. This study highlights the need for early diagnosis and treatment of HIV infection for purposes of HIV epidemic control, even in a setting with high ART coverage.

Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART.

BackgroundThe epidemiological tipping point ratio (TPR) has been suggested as a useful indicator to monitor the scale-up of antiretroviral treatment (ART) programmes and determine when scale-up is sufficient to control the epidemic. TPR has been defined as the ratio of yearly number of new HIV infections to the yearly number of new ART initiations or to the yearly net increase in the number of people on ART. It has been used to rank the progress of treatment programmes across countries, with the objective of reaching a TPR value under 1. Our study aims to assess if TPR alone can be used as an indicator of ART success across settings by comparing the expected changes in HIV incidence and ART coverage when TPR is maintained constant over time. In particular, we focus on the effect of ART initiation timing (emphasis on ART being initiated early or late during HIV progression) on the interpretation of the TPR.MethodsWe used a dynamic model of HIV transmission in South Africa representing ART rollout leading to universal treatment in 2017. The model is calibrated to HIV incidence, HIV prevalence and ART coverage in 2012 in South Africa, and 1000 simulations are selected for the base-case scenario. To measure the effect of TPR, we simulate TPR-preserving interventions, maintaining TPR (yearly number of new ART initiations denominator) at the value observed in 2019 (between 0.65 and 1.25) for 15 years. We compare ART coverage and HIV incidence across TPR values and across strategies in which ART access is prioritized differently. In a secondary analysis, we illustrate the sensitivity of new ART initiations to ART retention, and we compare both definitions of the TPR.ResultsOur analysis shows that HIV incidence reduction is weakly correlated to TPR: the same reduction in HIV incidence (15%) can be achieved by implementing the same strategy with a wide range of TPR maintained (0.65–1.12). Assuming high retention in ART, TPR-preserving strategies prioritizing early ART initiation yield greater reduction in HIV incidence than strategies where most individuals initiate ART late. High ART coverage is associated with low HIV incidence and it can be reached with a TPR below or equal to one with strategies favoring early ART initiation. Low ART retention over time results in higher HIV incidence even if TPR is maintained low. If ART retention is low, strategies prioritizing late ART initiation are associated with lower HIV incidence than strategies where ART is initiated early. Maintaining a fixed TPR value based on the net increase in people on ART gives higher HIV incidence reduction and requires fast ART scale-up.ConclusionOur analysis suggests that the TPR is not an adequate indicator of ART programme impact, without information on ART coverage and retention. Achieving early initiation and adherence to treatment to improve ART coverage might be as important as attaining a specific TPR target. Comparisons of TPR in different settings should account for differences in epidemic conditions.

The developmental effects of HIV and alcohol: a comparison of gestational outcomes among babies from South African communities with high prevalence of HIV and alcohol use

BackgroundThere is growing evidence of the negative impact of alcohol on morbidity and mortality of individuals living with HIV but limited evidence of in utero effects of HIV and alcohol on exposure on infants.MethodsWe conducted a population-based birth cohort study (N = 667 mother-infant dyads) in South Africa to investigate whether maternal alcohol use and HIV affected gestational outcomes. Descriptive data analysis was conducted for all variables using frequency distributions, measures of central tendency, and estimates of variance. Hierarchical multiple regression was conducted to determine whether maternal alcohol use, maternal HIV status and other risk factors (socioeconomic status, smoking, depression) predicted infant outcomes.ResultsOur results showed severity of recent alcohol use and lifetime alcohol use predicted low birth weight. Similarly lifetime alcohol use predicted shorter infant length, smaller head length, smaller head circumference, and early gestational age. However, HIV status was not a significant predictor of gestational outcomes.ConclusionsThe unexpected finding that maternal HIV status did not predict any of the gestational outcomes may be due to high rates of ART usage among HIV-infected mothers. The potentially negative effects of HIV on gestational outcomes may have been attenuated by improved maternal health due to high coverage of antiretroviral treatment in South Africa. Interventions are needed to reduce alcohol consumption among pregnant mothers and to support healthy growth and psychosocial development of infants.

Impact of opioid substitution therapy on the HIV prevention benefit of antiretroviral therapy for people who inject drugs.

A recent meta-analysis suggested that opioid substitution therapy (OST) increased uptake of antiretroviral treatment (ART) and HIV viral suppression. We modelled whether OST could improve the HIV prevention benefit achieved by ART among people who inject drugs (PWID). We modelled how introducing OST could improve the coverage of ART across a PWID population for different baseline ART coverage levels. Using existing data on how yearly HIV-transmission risk is related to HIV plasma viral load, changes in the level of viral suppression across the population were used to project the relative reduction in yearly HIV-transmission risk achieved by ART, with or without OST, compared with if there was no ART - defined here as the prevention effectiveness of ART. Owing to OST use increasing the chance of being on ART and achieving viral suppression if on ART, the prevention effectiveness of ART for PWID on OST (compared with PWID not on OST) increases by 44, 31, or 20% for a low (20%), moderate (40%), or high (60%) baseline ART coverage, respectively. Improvements in the population-level prevention effectiveness of ART are also achieved across all PWID, compared with if OST was not introduced. For instance, if OST is introduced at 40% coverage, the population-level prevention effectiveness of ART could increase by 27, 20, or 13% for a low (20%), moderate (40%), or high (60%) baseline ART coverage, respectively. OST could improve the HIV prevention benefit of ART; supporting strategies that aim to concurrently scale-up OST with ART.

Modelling HIV incidence and survival from age-specific seroprevalence after antiretroviral treatment scale-up in rural South Africa

Objective:Our study uses sex-specific and age-specific HIV prevalence data from an ongoing population-based demographic and HIV survey to infer HIV incidence and survival in rural KwaZulu-Natal between 2003 and 2011, a period when antiretroviral treatment (ART) was rolled out on a large scale.Design:Catalytic mathematical model for estimating HIV incidence and differential survival in HIV-infected persons on multiple rounds of HIV seroprevalence.Methods:We evaluate trends of HIV incidence and survival by estimating parameters separately for women and men aged 15–49 years during three calendar periods (2003–2005, 2006–2008, 2009–2011) reflecting increasing ART coverage. We compare model-based estimates of HIV incidence with observed cohort-based estimates from the longitudinal HIV surveillance.Results:Median survival after HIV infection increased significantly between 2003–2005 and 2009–2011 from 10.0 [95% confidence interval (CI) 8.8–11.2] to 14.2 (95% CI 12.6–15.8) years in women (P < 0.001) and from 10.0 (95% CI 9.2–10.8) to 14.0 (95% CI 10.6–17.4) years in men (P = 0.02). Our model suggests no statistically significant reduction of HIV incidence in the age-group 15–49 years in 2009–2011 compared with 2003–2005. Age-specific and sex-specific model-based HIV incidence estimates were in good agreement with observed cohort-based estimates from the ongoing HIV surveillance.Conclusion:Our catalytic modelling approach using cross-sectional age-specific HIV prevalence data could be useful to monitor trends of HIV incidence and survival in other African settings with a high ART coverage.

Population-Based CD4 Counts in a Rural Area in South Africa with High HIV Prevalence and High Antiretroviral Treatment Coverage

BackgroundLittle is known about the variability of CD4 counts in the general population of sub-Saharan Africa countries affected by the HIV epidemic. We investigated factors associated with CD4 counts in a rural area in South Africa with high HIV prevalence and high antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage.MethodsCD4 counts, health status, body mass index (BMI), demographic characteristics and HIV status were assessed in 4990 adult resident participants of a demographic surveillance in rural KwaZulu-Natal in South Africa; antiretroviral treatment duration was obtained from a linked clinical database. Multivariable regression analysis, overall and stratified by HIV status, was performed with CD4 count levels as outcome.ResultsMedian CD4 counts were significantly higher in women than in men overall (714 vs. 630 cells/µl, p<0.0001), both in HIV-uninfected (833 vs. 683 cells/µl, p<0.0001) and HIV-infected adults (384.5 vs. 333 cells/µl, p<0.0001). In multivariable regression analysis, women had 19.4% (95% confidence interval (CI) 16.1–22.9) higher CD4 counts than men, controlling for age, HIV status, urban/rural residence, household wealth, education, BMI, self-reported tuberculosis, high blood pressure, other chronic illnesses and sample processing delay. At ART initiation, HIV-infected adults had 21.7% (95% CI 14.6–28.2) lower CD4 counts than treatment-naive individuals; CD4 counts were estimated to increase by 9.2% (95% CI 6.2–12.4) per year of treatment.ConclusionsCD4 counts are primarily determined by sex in HIV-uninfected adults, and by sex, age and duration of antiretroviral treatment in HIV-infected adults. Lower CD4 counts at ART initiation in men could be a consequence of lower CD4 cell counts before HIV acquisition.

Abstract supplement: HIV Drug Therapy in the Americas Congress 13–15 June 2013, São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract supplement: HIV Drug Therapy in the Americas Congress 13–15 June 2013, São Paulo, Brazil

Economics of antiretroviral treatment vs. circumcision for HIV prevention

The HIV Prevention Trials Network (HPTN) 052 study, which showed the effectiveness of antiretroviral treatment in reducing HIV transmission, has been hailed as a "game changer" in the fight against HIV, prompting calls for scaling up treatment as prevention (TasP). However, it is unclear how TasP can be financed, given flat-lining support for global HIV programs. We assess whether TasP is indeed a game changer or if comparable benefits are obtainable at similar or lower cost by increasing coverage of medical male circumcision (MMC) and antiretroviral treatment (ART) at CD4 <350/μL. We develop a new mathematical model and apply it to South Africa, finding that high ART coverage combined with high MMC coverage provides approximately the same HIV incidence reduction as TasP, for $5 billion less over 2009-2020. MMC outperforms ART significantly in cost per infection averted ($1,096 vs. $6,790) and performs comparably in cost per death averted ($5,198 vs. $5,604). TasP is substantially less cost effective at $8,375 per infection and $7,739 per death averted. The prevention benefits of HIV treatment are largely reaped with high ART coverage. The most cost-effective HIV prevention strategy is to expand MMC coverage and then scale up ART, but the most cost-effective HIV-mortality reduction strategy is to scale up MMC and ART jointly. TasP is cost effective by commonly used absolute benchmarks but it is far less cost effective than MMC and ART. Given South Africa's current annual ART spending, the $5 billion in savings offered by MMC and ART over TasP in the next decade, for similar health benefits, challenges the widely hailed status of TasP as a game changer.

Cell Phone-Based and Internet-Based Monitoring and Evaluation of the National Antiretroviral Treatment Program During Rapid Scale-Up in Rwanda

Monitoring and evaluation of antiretroviral treatment (ART) scale-up has been challenging in resource-limited settings. We describe an innovative cell-phone-based and internet-based reporting system (TRACnet) utilized in Rwanda. From January 2004 to June 30, 2010, all health facilities with ART services submitted standardized monthly aggregate reports of key indicators. National cohort data were analyzed to examine trends in characteristics of patients initiating ART and cumulative cohort outcomes. Estimates of HIV-infected patients eligible for ART were obtained from Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (Estimation and Projection Package-Spectrum, 2010). By June 30, 2010, 295 (65%) of 451 health centers, District and referral hospitals provided ART services; of these, 255 (86%) were located outside Kigali, the capital. Cell phone-based and internet-based reporting was used by 253 (86%) and 42 (14%), respectively. As of June 30, 2010, 83,041 patients were alive on ART, 6171 (6%) had died, and 9621 (10%) were lost-to-follow-up. Of those alive on ART, 7111 (8.6%) were children, 50,971 (61.4%) were female, and 1823 (2.2%) were on a second-line regimen. The proportion of all patients initiating ART at World Health Organization clinical stages 3 and 4 declined from 65% in 2005 to 27% in 2010. National ART coverage of eligible patients increased from 13% in 2005 to 79% in 2010. Rwanda has successfully expanded ART access and achieved high national ART coverage among eligible patients. TRACnet captured essential data about the ART program during rapid scale-up. Cell phone-based and internet-based reporting may be useful for monitoring and evaluation of similar public health initiatives in other resource-limited settings.

Universal testing and treatment as an HIV prevention strategy: research questions and methods.

Achieving high coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART) in resource-poor settings will become increasingly difficult unless HIV incidence can be reduced substantially. Universal voluntary counselling and testing followed by immediate initiation of ART for all those diagnosed HIV-positive (universal testing and treatment, UTT) has the potential to reduce HIV incidence dramatically but would be very challenging and costly to deliver in the short term. Early modelling work in this field has been criticised for making unduly optimistic assumptions about the uptake and coverage of interventions. In future work, it is important that model parameters are realistic and based where possible on empirical data. Rigorous research evidence is needed before the UTT approach could be considered for wide-scale implementation. This paper reviews the main areas that need to be explored. We consider in turn research questions related to the provision of services for universal testing, services for immediate treatment of HIV-positives and the population-level impact of UTT, and the research methods that could be used to address these questions. Ideally, initial feasibility studies should be carried out to investigate the acceptability, feasibility and uptake of UTT services. If these studies produce promising results, there would be a strong case for a cluster-randomised trial to measure the impact of a UTT intervention on HIV incidence, and we consider the main design features of such a trial.

Estimates of eligibility for antiretroviral treatment (ART) and projected ART impact on AIDS mortality among South African educators

The study assessed the proportion of HIV-infected educators that need antiretroviral treatment (ART) according to current criteria, and estimated the impact of ART on AIDS mortality by modelling scenarios with and without access to ART. Specimens for HIV testing were obtained from 17 088 educators and a sub-sample of 444 venous blood specimens from HIV-positive educators was selected for a CD4 cell count analysis. The Spectrum model package was used for estimating AIDS-associated mortality and projecting the impact of ART scenarios. The results of the CD4 cell count analysis in the HIV-positive educator study population showed that 8% had fewer than 100, 22% fewer than 200, 52% fewer than 350, and 72% fewer than 500 CD4 cells/mm3. Based on the proportion of HIV-positive educators with a CD4 cell count < 200 cells/mm3 we estimated that in 2005 approximately 10 700 educators would need ART according to current SA government guidelines. For the baseline scenario without ART the number of AIDS deaths among HIV-infected educators was projected to increase from 1 992 deaths in 2000 to 5 260 in 2010. The number of projected AIDS deaths in the educator study population was estimated to be 4 414 in 2005, with almost 50% of the AIDS deaths occurring in the 35 – 44 age group.The estimates suggest that in 2005 9.1% of the HIV-infected educators, or 1.2% of the total educator population, will be dying of AIDS. By 2010, a reduction of almost 50% in AIDS deaths was estimated for the treatment scenario with 90% ART coverage, compared with the baseline scenario without treatment. The ART impact scenarios illustrate that a relatively high ART coverage would be needed to ensure a substantial impact of ART on HIV/AIDS-associated mortality.