Hidden Markov Model State Research Articles

Prior exposure to racial discrimination and patterns of acute parasympathetic nervous system responses to a race-related stress task among Black adults.

Black adults' prior exposure to racial discrimination may be associated with their acute parasympathetic reactivity to and recovery from a new race-related stressor. Existing analytical approaches to investigating this link obscure nuances in the timing, magnitude, and patterns of these acute parasympathetic nervous system (PNS) responses. In a re-analysis of a prior study, we utilize an hidden Markov model (HMM) approach to examine how prior experiences of racial discrimination are associated with intraindividual patterns of (1) physiological states of PNS activity and (2) patterns of and variability in transitions between these physiological states. Participants (N = 118) were Black young adults (range 18-29 years; Mage = 19.67, SDage = 2.04) who completed an online survey to index prior racial discrimination exposure, followed by an in-person lab visit during which their PNS activity in response to a race-related stress task was measured via electrocardiogram and converted into respiratory sinus arrhythmia. HMMs indicated evidence for two states: baseline and a second state representing a significant reduction in respiratory sinus arrhythmia. Most participants (93.22%) demonstrated a blunted response to the task, indicating that they did not transition from baseline during the procedure. Prior racial discrimination was not associated with HMM states or state transition parameters. Blunted physiological responses may be an important area of future investigation that could inform early life course mental and physical health screenings.

Abnormal beta bursts of depression in the orbitofrontal cortex and its relationship with clinical symptoms

BackgroundRecent researches have reported that frequency-specific patterns of neural activity contain not only rhythmically sustained oscillations but also transient-bursts of isolated events. The aim of this study was to investigated the correlation between beta burst and depression in order to explore depressive disease and the neurological underpinnings of disease-related symptoms. MethodsWe collected resting-state MEG recordings from 30 depressive patients and a matched 40 healthy controls. A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) was applied on source-space time courses for 78 cortical regions of the AAL atlas and the temporal characteristics of beta burst from the matched HMM states were captured. Group differences were evaluated on these beta burst characteristics after permutation tests and, for the depressive group, associations between burst characteristics and clinical symptom severity were determined using Spearman correlation coefficients. ResultsAt a threshold of p=0.05corrected, burst characteristics revealed significant differences between depression patients and controls at the group level, including increased burst amplitude in frontal lobe, decreased burst duration in occipital regions, increased burst rate and decreased burst interval time in some brain regions. Furthermore, burst amplitude in the orbitofrontal cortex (OFC) was positively related to the severity of sleep disturbance and burst rate in the OFC was negatively related to the severity of anxiety in depression patients. ConclusionsThe findings highlight OFC may be a targeted area responsible for the anxiety and sleep disturbance symptom by abnormal beta burst in depressive patients and beta burst characteristics of OFC might serve as a neuro-marker for the depression.

Flexible modeling of headache frequency fluctuations in migraine with hidden Markov models.

To explore hidden Markov models (HMMs) as an approach for defining clinically meaningful headache-frequency-based groups in migraine. Monthly headache frequency in patients with migraine is known to vary over time. This variation has not been completely characterized and is not well accounted for in the classification of individuals as having chronic or episodic migraine, a diagnosis with potentially significant impacts on the individual. This study investigated variation in reported headache frequency in a migraine population and proposed a model for classifying individuals by frequency while accounting for natural variation. The American Registry for Migraine Research (ARMR) was a longitudinal multisite study of United States adults with migraine. Study participants completed quarterly questionnaires and daily headache diaries. A series of HMMs were fit to monthly headache frequency data calculated from the diary data of ARMR. Changes in monthly headache frequency tended to be small, with 47% of transitions resulting in a change of 0 or 1 day. A substantial portion (24%) of months reflected daily headache with individuals ever reporting daily headache likely to consistently report daily headache. An HMM with four states with mean monthly headache frequency emissions of 3.52 (95% Prediction Interval [PI] 0-8), 10.10 (95% PI 4-17), 20.29 (95% PI 12-28), and constant 28 days/month had the best fit of the models tested. Of sequential month-to-month headache frequency transitions, 12% were across the 15-headache days chronic migraine cutoff. Under the HMM, 38.7% of those transitions involved a change in the HMM state, and the remaining 61.3% of the time, a change in chronic migraine classification was not accompanied by a change in the HMM state. A divide between the second and third states of this model aligns most strongly with the current episodic/chronic distinction, although there is a meaningful overlap between the states that supports the need for flexibility. An HMM has appealing properties for classifying individuals according to their headache frequency while accounting for natural variation in frequency. This empirically derived model may provide an informative classification approach that is more stable than the use of a single cutoff value.

HIDDEN MARKOV MODEL DAN APLIKASINYA

This paper presents the results of research literature about the author of Hidden Markov Model (HMM). Theories about HMM developed for state that can not be observed directly, the model also remain hidden, but the model parameters are known and fixed output can be obtained. Application state HMM on weather observation within 7 days and hidden and not brought the state to bring a raincoat, using all five parameters: The transition matrix (A), the emission matrix (B), the number of hidden elements of state (N), the number of state observed (M) and the initial probability distribution (π). The output obtained after the evaluation phase and decoding is the same as the chance of rain state 0.13 or δ2 (h) = 0.13 and optimal sequence state is Q={q1*,q2* } = {rain. rain}

Aberrant dynamic properties of whole-brain functional connectivity in acute mild traumatic brain injury revealed by hidden Markov models.

This study aimed to investigate the temporal dynamics of brain activity and characterize the spatiotemporal specificity of transitions and large-scale networks on short timescales in acute mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) patients and those with cognitive impairment in detail. Resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) was acquired for 71 acute mTBI patients and 57 age-, sex-, and education-matched healthy controls (HCs). A hidden Markov model (HMM) analysis of rs-fMRI data was conducted to identify brain states that recurred over time and to assess the dynamic patterns of activation states that characterized acute mTBI patients and those with cognitive impairment. The dynamic parameters (fractional occupancy, lifetime, interval time, switching rate, and probability) between groups and their correlation with cognitive performance were analyzed. Twelve HMM states were identified in this study. Compared with HCs, acute mTBI patients and those with cognitive impairment exhibited distinct changes in dynamics, including fractional occupancy, lifetime, and interval time. Furthermore, the switching rate and probability across HMM states were significantly different between acute mTBI patients and patients with cognitive impairment (all p < 0.05). The temporal reconfiguration of states in acute mTBI patients and those with cognitive impairment was associated with several brain networks (including the high-order cognition network [DMN], subcortical network [SUB], and sensory and motor network [SMN]). Hidden Markov models provide additional information on the dynamic activity of brain networks in patients with acute mTBI and those with cognitive impairment. Our results suggest that brain network dynamics determined by the HMM could reinforce the understanding of the neuropathological mechanisms of acute mTBI patients and those with cognitive impairment.

Tracking the Immediate and Short-Term Effects of Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation on Dynamic Brain States.

Continuous Theta Burst Stimulation (cTBS) has been shown to modulate cortical oscillations and induce cortical inhibitory effects. Electroencephalography (EEG) studies have shown some immediate effects of cTBS on brain activity. To investigate both immediate effects and short-term effects of cTBS on dynamic brain changes, cTBS was applied to 22 healthy participants over their left motor cortex. We recorded eyes-open, resting-state EEG and performance in the Nine-Hole Peg Test (NHPT) before cTBS, immediately after cTBS, and 80 minutes after cTBS. We identified nine states using a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach to describe the process of dynamic brain changes. The spatial activation, temporal profiles of HMM states and behavioral performance of NHPT were assessed and compared. cTBS altered the temporal profiles of S1-S5 immediately after cTBS and the temporal profiles of S5, S6 and S7 80 min after cTBS. Moreover, cTBS improved motor function of the left hand. State 1 was characterized as the activation of right occipito-temporal area, and NHPT behavioral performance of the left hand positively correlated with the occurrence of state 1, and negatively correlated with the interval time of state 1 after cTBS. The transitions between S1 or S7 and other states showed dynamic reconfiguration during after-effect sustained time after cTBS. These results suggest that the dynamic characteristics of state 1 are potential biomarkers for characterizing the aftereffect changes of cTBS.

Detection of Stealthy Jamming for UAV-Assisted Wireless Communications: An HMM-Based Method

Due to the high mobility, low cost and high robustness of line-of-sight (LoS) channels, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have begun to play an important role in assisting wireless communications. However, the broadcasting nature of wireless communication networks makes the electromagnetic spectrum vulnerable to jamming attacks. To ensure communication security, this paper investigates the jamming detection issue for UAV-assisted wireless communications. Different from the existing works, we consider detection of stealthy jamming with no prior knowledge of legitimate users or channel statistics, which makes the detection more challenging. To solve this problem, we design a hidden Markov model (HMM) based jamming detection (HBJD) method. First, we process the received signals with a sliding window to calculate the logarithmic received energy and use HMM to model the signal transmission under a jamming attack. Specifically, the spectrum state and logarithmic received energy are modeled as the hidden state and observable variable of HMM. Then, the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm is applied to estimate the parameters of HMM. With the estimated parameters, the spectrum state of each logarithmic received energy sample can be decided according to the maximum posterior probability (MAP) criterion. Finally, we design the test statistics and derive the threshold based on the estimated HMM parameters for the final decision. Simulation results demonstrate the superiority of the proposed solution for the detection of stealthy jamming without prior knowledge of legitimate users or the channel statistics.

Reconstructing bird trajectories from pressure and wind data using a highly optimized hidden Markov model

Abstract Tracking technologies have widely expanded our understanding of bird migration routes, destinations and underlying strategies. However, determining the entire trajectory of small birds equipped with lightweight geolocators remains a challenge. We develop a highly optimized hidden Markov model (HMM) for reconstructing bird trajectories. The observation model is defined by pressure and, optionally, light measurements, while the movement model incorporates wind data to constrain consecutive positions based on realistic airspeeds. To reduce the computational costs associated with a large state space, we prune the HMM states and transitions based on flight and observation constraints to efficiently model the entire trajectory. The approach presented is based on a mathematically exact procedure and is fast to compute. We demonstrate how to compute (1) the most likely trajectory, (2) the marginal probability map of each stationary period, (3) simulated trajectories and (4) the wind conditions (wind support/drift) encountered by the bird during each migratory flight. We construct a version of an HMM optimized for reconstructing a bird's migration trajectory based on lightweight geolocator data. To render this approach easily accessible to researchers, we designed a dedicated R package GeoPressureR (https://raphaelnussbaumer.com/GeoPressureR/).

Integration of Ontology Transformation into Hidden Markov Model

The goal of this study is to suggest a method for turning an ontology into a hidden Markov model (HMM). Ontology properties (relationships between classes) and ontology classes are taken as HMM symbols and states, respectively. Knowledge is represented in many different fields using the central element of the Semantic Web dubbed ontology. The authors employed machine learning technologies like HMM to add knowledge to these ontologies or to extract knowledge from within them. The meaning obtained from ontologies is not described during this task. The ontology triples that were extracted using SPARQL queries are used in this paper to transform the ontology into an HMM in order to handle this semantic. The Pizza ontology has been used to implement this method, which is based on lightweight ontologies.

Using machine learning to model older adult inpatient trajectories from electronic health records data

Electronic Health Records (EHR) data can provide novel insights into inpatient trajectories. Blood tests and vital signs from de-identified patients' hospital admission episodes (AE) were represented as multivariate time-series (MVTS) to train unsupervised Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and represent each AE day as one of 17 states. All HMM states were clinically interpreted based on their patterns of MVTS variables and relationships with clinical information. Visualization differentiated patients progressing toward stable 'discharge-like' states versus those remaining at risk of inpatient mortality (IM). Chi-square tests confirmed these relationships (two states associated with IM; 12 states with ≥1 diagnosis). Logistic Regression and Random Forest (RF) models trained with MVTS data rather than states had higher prediction performances of IM, but results were comparable (best RF model AUC-ROC: MVTS data= 0.85; HMM states= 0.79). ML models extracted clinically interpretable signals from hospital data. The potential of ML to develop decision-support tools for EHR systems warrants investigation.

Packet Loss Characterization Using Cross Layer Information and HMM for Wi-Fi Networks.

Packet loss is a major problem for wireless networks and has significant effects on the perceived quality of many internet services. Packet loss models are used to understand the behavior of packet losses caused by several reasons, e.g., interferences, coexistence, fading, collisions, and insufficient/excessive memory buffers. Among these, the Gilbert-Elliot (GE) model, based on a two-state Markov chain, is the most used model in communication networks. However, research has proven that the GE model is inadequate to represent the real behavior of packet losses in Wi-Fi networks. In this last category, variables of a single network layer are used, usually the physical one. In this article, we propose a new packet loss model for Wi-Fi that simultaneously considers the temporal behavior of losses and the variables that describe the state of the network. In addition, the model uses two important variables, the signal-to-noise ratio and the network occupation, which none of the packet loss models available for Wi-Fi networks simultaneously take into account. The proposed model uses the well-known Hidden Markov Model (HMM), which facilitates training and forecasting. At each state of HMM, the burst-length of losses is characterized using probability distributions. The model was evaluated by comparing computer simulation and real data samples for validation, and using the log-log complementary distribution of burst-length. We compared the proposed model with competing models through the analysis of mean square error (MSE) using a validation sample collected from a real network. Results demonstrated that the proposed model outperforms the currently available models for packet loss in Wi-Fi networks.

Mapping Interictal activity in epilepsy using a hidden Markov model: A magnetoencephalography study.

Epilepsy is a highly heterogeneous neurological disorder with variable etiology, manifestation, and response to treatment. It is imperative that new models of epileptiform brain activity account for this variability, to identify individual needs and allow clinicians to curate personalized care. Here, we use a hidden Markov model (HMM) to create a unique statistical model of interictal brain activity for 10 pediatric patients. We use magnetoencephalography (MEG) data acquired as part of standard clinical care for patients at the Children's Hospital of Philadelphia. These data are routinely analyzed using excess kurtosis mapping (EKM); however, as cases become more complex (extreme multifocal and/or polymorphic activity), they become harder to interpret with EKM. We assessed the performance of the HMM against EKM for three patient groups, with increasingly complicated presentation. The difference in localization of epileptogenic foci for the two methods was 7± 2 mm (mean ±SD over all 10 patients); and 94% ± 13% of EKM temporal markers were matched by an HMM state visit. The HMM localizes epileptogenic areas (in agreement with EKM) and provides additional information about the relationship between those areas. A key advantage over current methods is that the HMM is a data-driven model, so the output is tuned to each individual. Finally, the model output is intuitive, allowing a user (clinician) to review the result and manually select the HMM epileptiform state, offering multiple advantages over previous methods and allowing for broader implementation of MEG epileptiform analysis in surgical decision-making for patients with intractable epilepsy.

Cognitive workload classification: Towards generalization through innovative pipeline interface using HMM

Cognition is an important aspect to realize one’s potential and accelerate progress towards achieving a better quality of life. The cognitive workload is characterized by the occupancy of working memory during task performance. In spite of low spatial resolution, Electroencephalogram (EEG) continues to be a substantial tool in cognitive load research. The current methods use various time and frequency domain features for the assessment of cognitive load levels using EEG. The present work intends to model the temporal dynamics of the EEG signals by proposing a pipeline interface to classify cognitive workload under a continuous engagement/attention environment. The short segments of decomposed data are assumed to be stationary and are modeled using the autoregressive method. Later, fuzzy c-means maps the AR coefficients to low dimensional space. These clustered items are scaled further in the temporal domain by finding the interplay between the successive items through the most likely sequence of hidden states using the hidden Markov model (HMM). The successive segments group, having similar HMM states form variable-length frames. The handcrafted feature set from variable-length frames is classified using a deep recurrent neural network (RNN) structure. Finally, the maximum voting scheme on the predicted RNN output enhances the classification accuracy. The performance of this method is evaluated on a publicly available, and self-collected dataset. The findings reveal that handcrafted features supported by modeling of temporal dynamics outperform state-of-the-art methods. As a result, 97.8% accuracy is observed for multi-class classification with an optimum of four electrodes.

Modelling and filtering for dynamic investment in the precious-metals market

ABSTRACT Taking financial positions on precious metals could serve as risk management mechanism against both inflation and economic downturn. The demand for precious metals depends on their consumption- and investment-asset role. We consider the accurate and efficient price modelling of gold, silver, platinum and palladium under a hidden Markov model (HMM) multivariate framework. The interplay of various computational implementation aspects is underscored. Recursive model parameter estimates are generated, which are then utilized to test several dynamic investment strategies. We consider the pure-switching, mixed-switching and mean-variance strategies. The pure switching strategy outperforms the other two strategies 61.76% of the time. Benchmarking against the asset-only strategy and within the 25-year data examined in our study, investing in palladium is found to be better than the above-mentioned strategies. A general mean-variance strategy for any number of assets is also presented in conjunction with a filtering-based parameter estimation for any number of HMM states.

Inferring Brain State Dynamics Underlying Naturalistic Stimuli Evoked Emotion Changes With dHA-HMM.

The brain functional mechanisms underlying emotional changes have been primarily studied based on the traditional task design with discrete and simple stimuli. However, the brain state transitions when exposed to continuous and naturalistic stimuli with rich affection variations remain poorly understood. This study proposes a dynamic hyperalignment algorithm (dHA) to functionally align the inter-subject neural activity. The hidden Markov model (HMM) was used to study how the brain dynamics responds to emotion during long-time movie-viewing activity. The results showed that dHA significantly improved inter-subject consistency and allowed more consistent temporal HMM states across participants. Afterward, grouping the emotions in a clustering dendrogram revealed a hierarchical grouping of the HMM states. Further emotional sensitivity and specificity analyses of ordered states revealed the most significant differences in happiness and sadness. We then compared the activation map in HMM states during happiness and sadness and found significant differences in the whole brain, but strong activation was observed during both in the superior temporal gyrus, which is related to the early process of emotional prosody processing. A comparison of the inter-network functional connections indicates unique functional connections of the memory retrieval and cognitive network with the cerebellum network during happiness. Moreover, the persistent bilateral connections among salience, cognitive, and sensorimotor networks during sadness may reflect the interaction between high-level cognitive networks and low-level sensory networks. The main results were verified by the second session of the dataset. All these findings enrich our understanding of the brain states related to emotional variation during naturalistic stimuli.

Reconfiguration of Brain Network Dynamics in Autism Spectrum Disorder Based on Hidden Markov Model.

Autism spectrum disorder (ASD) is a group of complex neurodevelopment disorders characterized by altered brain connectivity. However, the majority of neuroimaging studies for ASD focus on the static pattern of brain function and largely neglect brain activity dynamics, which might provide deeper insight into the underlying mechanism of brain functions for ASD. Therefore, we proposed a framework with Hidden Markov Model (HMM) analysis for resting-state functional MRI (fMRI) from a large multicenter dataset of 507 male subjects. Specifically, the 507 subjects included 209 subjects with ASD and 298 well-matched health controls across 14 sites from the Autism Brain Imaging Data Exchange (ABIDE). Based on the HMM, we can identify the recurring brain function networks over time across ASD and healthy controls (HCs). Then we assessed the dynamical configuration of the whole-brain networks and further analyzed the community structure of transitions across the brain states. Based on the 19 HMM states, we found that the global temporal statistics of the specific HMM states (including fractional occupancies and lifetimes) were significantly altered in ASD compared to HCs. These specific HMM states were characterized by the activation pattern of default mode network (DMN), sensory processing networks [including visual network, auditory network, and sensory and motor network (SMN)]. Meanwhile, we also find that the specific modules of transitions between states were closely related to ASD. Our findings indicate the temporal reconfiguration of the brain network in ASD and provide novel insights into the dynamics of the whole-brain networks for ASD.

Spontaneous transient states of fronto-temporal and default-mode networks altered by suicide attempt in major depressive disorder.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is associated with increased suicidality, and it’s still challenging to identify suicide in clinical practice. Although suicide attempt (SA) is the most relevant precursor with multiple functional abnormalities reported from neuroimaging studies, little is known about how the spontaneous transient activated patterns organize and coordinate brain networks underlying SA. Thus, we obtained resting-state magnetoencephalography data for two MDD subgroups of 44 non-suicide patients and 34 suicide-attempted patients, together with 49 matched health-controls. For the source-space signals, Hidden Markov Model (HMM) helped to capture the sub-second dynamic activity via a hidden sequence of finite number of states. Temporal parameters and spectral activation were acquired for each state and then compared between groups. Here, HMM states characterized the spatiotemporal signatures of eight networks. The activity of suicide attempters switches more frequently into the fronto-temporal network, as the time spent occupancy of fronto-temporal state is increased and interval time is decreased compared with the non-suicide patients. Moreover, these changes are significantly correlated with Nurses’ Global Assessment of Suicide Risk scores. Suicide attempters also exhibit increased state-wise activations in the theta band (4-8 Hz) in the posterior default mode network centered on posterior cingulate cortex, which can’t be detected in the static spectral analysis. These alternations may disturb the time allocations of cognitive control regulations and cause inflexible decision making to SA. As the better sensitivity of dynamic study in reflecting SA diathesis than the static is validated, dynamic stability could serve as a potential neuronal marker for SA.Supplementary InformationThe online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00406-021-01371-8.

Variational Beta Process Hidden Markov Models with Shared Hidden States for Trajectory Recognition.

Hidden Markov model (HMM) is a vital model for trajectory recognition. As the number of hidden states in HMM is important and hard to be determined, many nonparametric methods like hierarchical Dirichlet process HMMs and Beta process HMMs (BP-HMMs) have been proposed to determine it automatically. Among these methods, the sampled BP-HMM models the shared information among different classes, which has been proved to be effective in several trajectory recognition scenes. However, the existing BP-HMM maintains a state transition probability matrix for each trajectory, which is inconvenient for classification. Furthermore, the approximate inference of the BP-HMM is based on sampling methods, which usually takes a long time to converge. To develop an efficient nonparametric sequential model that can capture cross-class shared information for trajectory recognition, we propose a novel variational BP-HMM model, in which the hidden states can be shared among different classes and each class chooses its own hidden states and maintains a unified transition probability matrix. In addition, we derive a variational inference method for the proposed model, which is more efficient than sampling-based methods. Experimental results on a synthetic dataset and two real-world datasets show that compared with the sampled BP-HMM and other related models, the variational BP-HMM has better performance in trajectory recognition.

Effects of the Dynamic and Energy Based Feature Extraction on Hindi Speech Recognition

Background: Speech Recognition is the most effective and suitable way of communication. Extracted features play an important role in speech recognition. Previous research works for Hindi speech recognition lack detailed comparative analysis of the feature extraction methods using dynamic and energy parameters. Objective: The research work presents experimental work done to explore the effects of integrating dynamic coefficients and energy parameters with different feature extraction techniques on Connected word Hindi Speech recognition. As extracted features play a significant role in speech recognition, a comparative analysis is presented to show the effects of integration of dynamic and energy parameters to basic extracted features. Method: Speaker dependent system was proposed with monophones based five states Hidden Markov Model (HMM) using HTK Tool kit. Speech data set of connected words in Hindi was created. The feature extraction techniques such as Linear Predictive Coding Cepstral coefficients (LPCCs), Mel Frequency Cepstral Coefficients (MFCCs), and Perceptual Linear Prediction (PLPs) coefficients were applied integrating delta, delta2, and energy parameters to evaluate the performance of the proposed methodology for speaker dependent recognition. Results: Experimental results show that the system achieved the highest recognition word accuracy of 89.97% using PLP coefficients. The PLP coefficients achieved 4% increment in word accuracy than original MFCCs and a 16% increment in word accuracy than LPCCs. Adding energy parameters to original MFCCs increased word accuracy by 1.5% only while adding dynamic coefficients delta and double delta had no significant effect on speech recognition accuracy. Conclusion: Research findings reveal that PLP coefficients outperformed. Explorations reveal that the integration of energy parameters are better than original MFCCs. Investgations also reveal that adding energy parametres improved recognition score while adding delta and delta2 coefficients to basic features did not improve the recognition scores. Research findings could be used to enhance the performance of a speech recognition system by using a suitable feature extraction technique and combining the different feature extraction techniques. Further, investigations can be used to develop language resources for refining speech recognition. The work can be extended to develop a continuous Hindi speech recognition system.

Towards Dynamic Reconfiguration of a Composite Web Service: An Approach Based on QoS Prediction

Service-oriented architecture provides the ability to combine several web services in order to fulfil a user-specific requirement. In dynamic environments, the appearance of several unforeseen events can destabilize the composite web service (CWS) and affect its quality. To deal with these issues, the composite web service must be dynamically reconfigured. Dynamic reconfiguration may be enhanced by avoiding the invocation of degraded web services by predicting QoS for the candidate web service. In this paper, we propose a dynamic reconfiguration method based on HMM (Hidden Markov Model) states to predict the imminent degradation in QoS and prevent the invocation of partner web services with degraded QoS values. PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization) and SFLA (Shuffled Frog Leaping Algorithm) are used to improve the prediction efficiency of HMM. Through extensive experiments on a real-world dataset, WS-Dream, the results demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve better prediction accuracy. Moreover, we carried out a case study where we revealed that the proposed approach outperforms several state-of-the-art methods in terms of execution time.