Judgmental Heuristics Research Articles

Heuristic evaluation of healthy menus: examining the effect of brand image congruity

PurposeThis study aims to investigate how restaurant customers’ heuristic judgment, originating from their perceived level of congruity between restaurant brand image regarding healthfulness and healthy menu products, can affect their information processing in terms of their perceived nutritional information credibility and, furthermore, how these effects influence customers’ attitude toward the menu in terms of healthiness.Design/methodology/approachA Web-based survey was developed and distributed to randomly selected respondents in the USA, and in total, 320 responses were used for the data analyses. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to examine the relationship among three constructs: perceived brand–product congruity, perceived nutritional information credibility and nutrition attitude toward the healthy menu item being promoted. To assess the mediating role of perceived information credibility, an analytical procedure proposed by (Baron and Kenny 1986) was used. Finally, to investigate the moderating effect of the health involvement, multiple group analyses were executed.FindingsThe study results suggested that the synchronization between healthful brand image of the restaurant and the promoted menu item is important for ensuring customers’ perceptions of information credibility regarding the menu item healthiness and for eliciting customers’ positive nutrition attitudes toward the menu item. Also, positive nutrition attitudes toward a menu item can be increased by improving perceived information credibility. Depending on an individual’s level of health involvement, the relationships between the three proposed constructs vary.Originality/valueThis paper includes a theoretical model that explains customers’ heuristic evaluation of a healthy menu product by assessing the influence of brand image congruity in terms of healthy menu promotion.

Decision processes in professional investors: Does expertise guard against judgmental biases?

Decision processes of professional investors in financial markets are investigated. A sample of 138 institutional and wealthy private investors, who represented a total capital of about 350 billion Euros, participated in an experiment on decision making. They answered problems in financial settings which were constructed to measure the use of the following judgmental heuristics: anchoring, framing, representativeness, and outcome-evaluation according to the peak-end rule. The findings indicate that also highly professional experts make use of these heuristics and that their decisions may contradict normative economic standards. We discuss implications of these results both for the basic assumptions of economics and for models of judgment and decision making in psychology. Pracitcal relevance: According to common sense and some models in psychology and economics, judgmental errors and biases are less probable when motivation and expertise of the decision maker are high. We report evidence that also financial experts are prone to heuristics-induced biases in their field of expertise. Analysis of the underlying psychological processes may foster the understanding of expert judgment and help to improve its quality.

When the “Laws of Fear” Do Not Apply: Effective Counterterrorism and the Sense of Security from Terrorism

We investigate how effective counterterrorism influences (1) confidence in government efforts to deal with terrorism and (2) the sense of insecurity from attacks. Research on “heuristic judgments” implies information about counterterrorism undercuts people’s perceived security from terrorism. Across three experiments, however, we find that people who are exposed to information about effective counterterrorism express more confidence in governments to protect citizens from future attacks and prevent future violence than those who did not receive these treatments. People who receive information about effective counterterrorism also show greater willingness to travel to locations where the risk of terrorism is prominent than those who are only exposed to material about terrorism. Finally, we find that counterterrorism information does not inevitably undermine government efforts to reassure people about their security. On the contrary, information about effective counterterrorism erased the effects of exposure to information about terrorism in one study.

English

This article discusses the decision-making process of Wine Producers Association of Altos Montes, at Serra Gaucha/Rio Grande do Sul/Brazil (APROMONTES) winegrowers and winemakers, in their process of adopting innovations to increase their competitiveness. To do that, we used the Prospect Theory. Data collection was conducted through interviews with 12 wineries, 25 winegrowers of APROMONTES wineries, and, as witnesses, seven winegrowers, members of the Rural Labor Union (STR), from Flores da Cunha, Rio Grande do Sul/Brazil. The results point to the fact that both the wineries and winegrowers support their decisions on heuristics of judgment, and, wine producers use mainly the affect, representative, anchoring and adjustment heuristics, while the wineries used representative and affect heuristics. In this perspective, we identified winegrowers as affective decision whose decisions are based primarily on emotional aspects. On the other hand, the wine makers as copier decision whose decisions are supported primarily by observing the decisions of other wine producers: The practice of overflow. Key words: Decisions, judgment heuristics, wine production sector.

Conflict and bias in heuristic judgment.

Conflict has been hypothesized to play a key role in recruiting deliberative processing in reasoning and judgment tasks. This claim suggests that changing the task so as to add incorrect heuristic responses that conflict with existing heuristic responses can make individuals less likely to respond heuristically and can increase response accuracy. We tested this prediction in experiments involving judgments of argument strength and word frequency, and found that participants are more likely to avoid heuristic bias and respond correctly in settings with 2 incorrect heuristic response options compared with similar settings with only 1 heuristic response option. Our results provide strong evidence for conflict as a mechanism influencing the interaction between heuristic and deliberative thought, and illustrate how accuracy can be increased through simple changes to the response sets offered to participants. (PsycINFO Database Record

Judgment Analysis in a Dynamic Multitask Environment: Capturing Nonlinear Policies Using Decision Trees

Policy capturing is a judgment analysis method that typically uses linear statistical modeling to estimate expert judgments. A variant to this technique is to capture decision policies using data-mining algorithms designed to handle nonlinear decision rules, missing attributes, and noisy data. In the current study, we tested the effectiveness of a decision-tree induction algorithm and an instance-based classification method for policy capturing in comparison to the standard linear approach. Decision trees are relevant in naturalistic decision-making contexts since they can be used to represent “fast-and-frugal” judgment heuristics, which are well suited to describe human cognition under time pressure. We examined human classification behavior using a simulated naval air defense task in order to empirically compare the C4.5 decision-tree algorithm, the k-nearest neighbors algorithm, and linear regression on their ability to capture individual decision policies. Results show that C4.5 outperformed the other methods in terms of goodness of fit and cross-validation accuracy. Decision-tree models of individuals’ judgment policies actually classified contacts more accurately than their human counterparts, resulting in a threefold reduction in error rates. We conclude that a decision-tree induction algorithm can yield useful models for training and decision support applications, and we discuss the application of judgmental bootstrapping in real time in dynamic environments.

Heuristics in Professional Judgement: A Psycho-Social Rationality Model

There is increasing attention to decision making in social work as we become more concerned about ‘risk’ and the most effective design of assessment tools to aid professional judgement. In order to develop practice, a better conceptual understanding is required of the cognitive processes in making these judgements. This paper explores the potential use of heuristic (small-scale, ‘rule-of-thumb’) models of cognitive judgement in social work, recognising that human beings (including social work professionals) cannot simultaneously process large numbers of factors with associated statistical weightings. This paper discusses heuristic models of professional judgement based on a proposed concept of psychosocial rationality. Such heuristic models would take account of the psychosocial environment in which the decision is being made as well as of the cognitive processes of the decision maker. The potential application to professional judgement in social work is discussed with reference to examples of various types of social work decision. Potential issues in developing and adopting this theoretical approach in practice are raised – including legal dimensions and potential bias - and the implications for social work research are discussed.

Often biased but rarely in doubt: How initial reactions to stigmatized applicants affect interviewer confidence

ABSTRACTBuilding on a metacognitive framework of heuristic judgments, we investigate the effect of applicant stigma on interviewers’ overconfidence in their (biased) judgments. There were 193 experienced interviewers conducting a face-to-face interview with an applicant who was facially stigmatized or not, and who was visible (traditional interview) or not (partially blind interview), to the interviewer during the rapport-building stage. In traditional interviews, interview judgments of stigmatized applicants were negatively biased, and interviewers reported overconfidence in these judgments. This effect was partially mediated by the interviewer’s professional performance during rapport building. Interview procedure moderated both the direct and indirect effect (through professional performance) of applicant stigma on interviewer confidence. Results show that interviewer (over)confidence in biased judgments is driven by the initial effects of, and reactions to, the stigmatized applicant.

Trust But Verify: Examining the Association Between Students' Sourcing Behaviors and Ratings of Text Trustworthiness

Three indicators of undergraduate students' (n = 197) source evaluation were investigated as students completed an academic task requiring the use of multiple texts. The source evaluation metrics examined were students' (1) accessing of document information, (2) trustworthiness ratings, and (3) citation in written responses. All three indicators of source evaluation were found to differ across source type. Based on a significant interaction between source type and accessing of document information in predicting trustworthiness ratings, an additive model of trustworthiness evaluation is proposed. Specifically, we suggest that students access document information to confirm a priori, heuristic judgments of trustworthiness. A model using all three source evaluation metrics was found to be significant in predicting response quality, with the number of citations included in students' responses serving as the strongest predictor in the model.

Poverty and Economic Decision-Making: Evidence from Changes in Financial Resources at Payday.

We study the effect of financial resources on decision-making. Low-income U.S. households are randomly assigned to receive an online survey before or after payday. The survey collects measures of cognitive function and administers risk and intertemporal choice tasks. The study design generates variation in cash, checking and savings balances, and expenditures. Before-payday participants behave as if they are more present-biased when making intertemporal choices about monetary rewards but not when making intertemporal choices about non-monetary real-effort tasks. Nor do we find before-after differences in risk-taking, the quality of decision-making, the performance in cognitive function tasks, or in heuristic judgments.

Judgement heuristics and bias in evidence interpretation: The effects of computer generated exhibits

The increasing use of multi-media applications, trial presentation software and computer generated exhibits (CGE) has raised questions as to the potential impact of the use of presentation technology on juror decision making. A significant amount of the commentary on the manner in which CGE exerts legal influence is largely anecdotal; empirical examinations too are often devoid of established theoretical rationalisations. This paper will examine a range of established judgement heuristics (for example, the attribution error, representativeness, simulation), in order to establish their appropriate application for comprehending legal decisions. Analysis of both past cases and empirical studies will highlight the potential for heuristics and biases to be restricted or confounded by the use of CGE. The paper will conclude with some wider discussion on admissibility, access to justice, and emerging issues in the use of multi-media in court.

Innovative Learning in Arts Education and Community-Based Arts through Life Science

This paper aims to demonstrate how life science can be used as a form of educational tool in enhancing innovative learning in arts education and in community-based learning. This paper also explores how trans-disciplinary knowledge can be applied in the artistic learning process through scientific thinking methodologies. This paper is illustrated in four sections. Section one describes the key attributes that contributed to the creation of Infinite Saree- Infinite Saree Project, Dna Saree, Dna Carnatic, Therukoothu, Movement Workshop, Music Workshop and Bio- Arts Workshop. Section two introduces the DNA model, which can be applied in the art teaching process through scientific thinking within the teaching principles of: Imaginative Thinking, Self-Directive Teaching, Materiality Thinking, Critical Thinking, Mapping of the Language, Heuristic Judgment, Skill-based Knowledge and Knowledge of Continuity. Section three examines how community-based learning can be applied (practiced?) through research principles such as Collective Thinking, Shared Knowledge and Ownership. Section four explores how three various disciplines – Life Sciences, Theatre and Visual Arts can be interpreted through trans-disciplinary knowledge within the following research principles: - Systematic Enquiry, Scientific Perspective and Symbolic Representations. Keywords: Life Sciences, trans-disciplinary studies, Community based learning and DNA teaching principles

The framing effect and skin conductance responses.

Individuals often rely on simple heuristics when they face complex choice situations under uncertainty. Traditionally, it has been proposed that cognitive processes are the main driver to evaluate different choice options and to finally reach a decision. Growing evidence, however, highlights a strong interrelation between judgment and decision-making (JDM) on the one hand, and emotional processes on the other hand. This also seems to apply to judgmental heuristics, i.e., decision processes that are typically considered to be fast and intuitive. In this study, participants are exposed to different probabilities of receiving an unpleasant electric shock. Information about electric shock probabilities is either positively or negatively framed. Integrated skin conductance responses (ISCRs) while waiting for electric shock realization are used as an indicator for participants' emotional arousal. This measure is compared to objective probabilities. I find evidence for a relation between emotional body reactions measured by ISCRs and the framing effect. Under negative frames, participants show significantly higher ISCRs while waiting for an electric shock to be delivered than under positive frames. This result might contribute to a better understanding of the psychological processes underlying JDM. Further studies are necessary to reveal the causality underlying this finding, i.e., whether emotional processes influence JDM or vice versa.

Keynes as the first behavioral economist: the case of the attribute-substitution heuristic

:The present article demonstrates that Keynes’s analysis of inferential judgment and assimilation that was inherent in his theory of fundamental uncertainty is consistent with and historically a predecessor of attribute-substitution accounts of models of heuristic judgment, which are used in modern behavioral economics. This conclusion is important because it associates Keynes’s theory of fundamental uncertainty with contemporary psychology, it explains key ideas of the former in terms of cognitive psychology, and it strengthens the importance of Keynesian psychological concerns for the development of contemporary behavioral economics.

Using qualitative data, people's perceptions, and the science of decision making to inform policy and improve hepatitis C care for people who use drugs

Using qualitative data, people's perceptions, and the science of decision making to inform policy and improve hepatitis C care for people who use drugs

Choosing the sure gain and the sure loss: uncertainty avoidance and the reflection effect

Purpose – The paper aims to investigate the role of uncertainty avoidance (UA) as a moderator of Prospect Theory’s reflection effect (i.e. the simultaneous choice of a sure gain and a risky loss). We expect that higher-UA consumers, seeking certainty, will shun risk across both gains and losses such that their choices will be inconsistent with the reflection effect. Design/methodology/approach – We report three studies in which participants choose between risk and certainty. We use the stimuli from the original Prospect Theory paper, measure UA using an individual-level scale and conduct controlled experimental (laboratory) studies. Findings – We show that, compared to lower-UA consumers, higher-UA consumers demonstrate the reflection effect less frequently in a variety of settings (small/large stakes and within/between subjects comparisons). Mediation tests reveal that higher-UA consumers anchor on the sure loss and stay with their choice because they prefer the certainty of the sure (smaller) loss to the possibility of a possible (larger) loss (a dual-mediation mechanism). Research limitations/implications – The results have important implications for marketing practice. They show that quantifying uncertainty into a probability number is not enough to eliminate the uncertainty of the situation, and that UA is likely serve as a boundary condition to many of the traditional heuristics of judgment and decision-making. Originality/value – This is the first paper to demonstrate that UA can moderate the reflection effect (using the stimuli in the original Prospect Theory paper). Therefore, it sets an agenda for future researchers who may want to use these findings to calibrate price/uncertainty tradeoffs within higher-UA segments.

SCENARIO ANALYSIS AS A TOOL FOR COUNTRY RISK ASSESSMENT: A THEORETICAL EXPLORATION

Purpose: This article is an exploration of the applicability of scenario analysis in country risk assessment executed by decision makers in small and medium sized enterprises when they engage in international business. Approach: The exploration is realized through two assessment. In the fi rst assessment it is presented whether country risks can be classifi ed as highly complex and highly uncertain according to the forecasting methods classifi ed by Schoemaker (2009) and the argumentation whether country risks need to be classifi ed as risk or uncertainty. For the second assessment it is presented whether the assessment of country risks according to the method of scenario analysis assumes the use of judgmental heuristics and the occurrence of bias in accordance with the heuristics and biases approach described by Kahneman and Tversky and identifi ed in country risk assessment by Van den Berg (2013). Findings: The fi rst conclusion of this exploration is that approaching country risk assessment with the support of scenario analysis supports decision makers in a fundamental manner and hence, contributes to the well-functioning of the company. The second conclusion is that, although the heuristics and biases that occur due to judgment and decision making under uncertainty are not supposed to occur anymore, a diff erent set of biases is to be expected. Implications: Although scenario analysis seems to be a valid technique to be used in country risk assessment, further research is required to determine how it should be operationalized for small and medium sized enterprises.

Clinical judgement heuristics: Methods and models

Clinical judgement heuristics: Methods and models

License plate detection using gradient information and cascade detectors

In this paper, we propose a license plate detection method based on the gradient information and a cascade detection framework. The proposed method consists of three main modules: image preprocessing, license plate detection and license plate confirmation. Considering the diversities of Chinese license plate, we first get the gradient images to unify plate forms through image preprocessing. The license plate will be detected roughly by using the cascade AdaBoost classifier in the next step. Finally, several heuristic judgment strategies and a voting-based method are used to verify the candidate license plates. The effectiveness of our method is validated with an experimental study in license plate detection.

The role of patient involvement in the diagnostic process in internal medicine: A cognitive approach

Much cognitive and clinical research has addressed clinical reasoning, pointing out that physicians often have difficulties in following a linear course when making accurate diagnoses. Some authors suspect that physicians make mistakes because they unknowingly fail to observe the laws of formal logic and that their reasoning becomes influenced by contextual factors.In this paper, we introduce some basic principles of the cognitive approach to medical decision making and we describe the cognitive balanced model. Then we discuss the relationship between construction of mental models, cognitive biases and patient involvement by the use of a clinical vignette.Medical decisions may be considered fundamentally biased since the use of judgment heuristics and a combination of cognitive-related and system-related factors limit physicians' rationality.While traditional understanding of clinical reasoning has failed to consider contextual factors, most techniques designed to avoid biases seem to fail in promoting sound and safer medical practice. In particular, we argue that an unbiased process requires the use of a cognitive balanced model, in which analytical and intuitive mind skills should be properly integrated.In order to improve medical decision making and thereby lessen incidence of adverse events, it is fundamental to include the patient perspective in a balanced model. Physicians and patients should improve their collective intelligence by sharing mental models within a framework of distributed intelligence.