What future for the Arab monarchies of the Gulf? by Ghassane Salamé The oil monarchies of the Arabian peninsula seem to belie the alarmist forecasts which declare that they are doomed to disappear following the events in Iran and Afghanistan. Yet these countries are victims of incidents, often violent, toned down by the traditional "torpor" of political life (uprising at Mecca, demonstrations in Bahrein, expulsions in Kuwait). Are these already, as in Iran, the first signs of religion-inspired contestation? As opposed to the Pahlavi dynasty, the Arab monarchies of the Gulf have never sought to alienate the traditionalist group from which they have sprung. Moreover, the large majority of citizens in these countries are Sunnis who consider the Shi'ite movement mobilized by the Ayatollah Khomeiny, both sectarian and heretic. This has provoked a movement of demands on the part of the Shi'ite communities. The systematic elimination of all centres of opposition, both lay and modernist, is driving the population towards religious leaders. Strong traditionalist currents of opposition, however, are at work within the monarchies themselves, which are fostered by claimants to the thrones in search of outside support. There is a tendency at the present time for those who govern to monopolise power at the expense of those who helped their accession. The hermetic system of government in force is criticised by a growing number of persons, conscious of the clans who rule, which thereby limits the participation of the people. Furthermore, the war between Iran and Irak has increased regional tension and divided the Arab ranks, the Gulf monarchies having chosen almost indifferently to side with Irak.