Herding Model Research Articles

Herding Behavior and Liquidity in the Cryptocurrency Market

In view of explosive trends and excessive trades in the cryptocurrency markets, this paper contributes to the existing literature by bringing in the limelight the effect of liquidity on the herding behavior in the cryptocurrency market. Results from a first applied herding model including contemporaneous and lagged squared market returns demonstrated that market-wide herding exists within falling markets. The incorporation of liquidity highlights further evidences on herding behavior across cryptocurrencies during high and low liquid days, which varies across percentiles. Our findings bring handy implications for topics of portfolio and risk management, as well as regulation.

Herding behavior and stock market conditions

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether market conditions have an effect on investors’ propensity to herd in an emerging economy’s stock market. Additionally, given the lack of research on Islamic behavioral finance, the authors further investigate if the herding phenomenon is distinct in Islamic versus conventional stocks. Design/methodology/approach The authors used daily data for the period of 1995–2016 according to the herding behavior model of Chang et al. (2000), which relies on cross-sectional absolute deviation of returns. Findings Findings reveal the herding behavior of investors among Shariah-compliant during up and down market exits with non-linear relationship to the market return, while for conventional stocks herding behavior does not exist with linear nor nonlinear relationships during the up and down market. Furthermore, for the whole market, herding behavior only exists during upmarket with a nonlinear relationship to the market return. However, this relationship is not significant. Moreover, the results of this study are robust with respect to the effect of the Asian and global financial crisis. Practical implications The findings are useful for investors to identify which market conditions are associated with rational and irrational behavior of investors. Originality/value Most of the theoretical and empirical studies on herding behavior have focused on developed countries. Only a few studies have paid attention to the herding behavior in Islamic financial markets, particularly in the context of an emerging market such as Malaysia. This study fills this void.

Consumer Herding Behavior in Online Buying: A Literature Review

The purpose of this review paper is to present the application of herding behavior in online buying. The simplest description of herding behavior is the imitation of others in making decisions. Online buying platforms have facilitated observing others' buying behavior, thereby increasing possibilities of social influence on our information search, evaluation, and buying. The concept of herding is multi-disciplinary; however, the literature review on herding behavior is mainly grounded in economics and finance. There is little understanding of herding behavior in marketing literature. Therefore, this study covers herding behavior literature through high-quality research papers published from 2000 to 2020 in journals indexed in the social science citation index, science citation index expanded, and emerging source citation index. This paper discusses the conceptualization of herding in online buying, herding situations, information-processing view of herding, measuring herding effect, herding models and theories, and areas for future research to enrich herding literature in online buying. This paper proposes a herding model (HCMMD) based on the stimulus-organism-response (SOR) theory to study herding behavior. Keywords: Consumer Herding Behavior, Herding Literature Review, Herding Models, Online Buying, Stimulus-Organism-Response (SOR) Theory.

Informational Herding, Optimal Experimentation, and Contrarianism

Abstract In the standard herding model, privately informed individuals sequentially see prior actions and then act. An identical action herd eventually starts and public beliefs tend to “cascade sets” where social learning stops. What behaviour is socially efficient when actions ignore informational externalities? We characterize the outcome that maximizes the discounted sum of utilities. Our four key findings are: (1) cascade sets shrink but do not vanish, and herding should occur but less readily as greater weight is attached to posterity. (2) An optimal mechanism rewards individuals mimicked by their successor. (3) Cascades cannot start after period one under a signal log-concavity condition. (4) Given this condition, efficient behaviour is contrarian, leaning against the myopically more popular actions in every period. We make two technical contributions: as value functions with learning are not smooth, we use monotone comparative statics under uncertainty to deduce optimal dynamic behaviour. We also adapt dynamic pivot mechanisms to Bayesian learning.

The existence and motivations of irrational loan herding and its impact on bank performance when considering different market periods

This study first investigates whether Taiwanese banks exhibit irrational loan herding after rational herding factors based on industrial growth, profitability and credit rating are controlled in the model of total loan herding. Our results confirm the evidence of irrational loan herding for most types of banks except for government-owned banks (GOBs). Compared with other periods, the irrational herding behavior of small banks during the crisis and expansionary periods is significantly greater, and the irrational herding behavior of GOBs during the presidential election period is significantly greater. We then clarify the motivations behind irrational loan herding, including characteristic herding and investigative herding. Next, we detect the impact of irrational loan herding on bank performance. We find that the irrational loan herding of POBs, independent banks and small banks has more significantly negative impacts on their performance than does the irrational herding of their counterpart banks. Finally, we investigate whether irrational loan herding during specific market periods has a more significantly harmful effect on bank performance. Our results show that there is a greater negative impact of irrational loan herding by privately owned banks than by GOBs on bank performance during the crisis and expansionary periods, while the situation is the opposite during the presidential election period.

Achieving drought resilience in the grazing lands of northern Australia: preparing, responding and recovering

Northern Australia is characterised by high rainfall variability and extended droughts that challenge sustainable and profitable management of grazing properties. To achieve drought resilience, emphasis must be placed on supporting livestock managers to prepare for drought as well as implementing appropriate drought response and recovery actions. Here we describe insights and learnings gained from working with scientists, industry development and extension officers, and property managers, to enable more profitable and drought resilient extensive livestock production systems across northern Australia. We provide examples from the modelling and analysis of hypothetical grazing properties representative of enterprises across northern Australia. To prepare for drought, we principally propose the application of the farm-management economics framework to identify investment strategies which can improve enterprise resilience through building wealth over the longer term. The critical first step in drought preparedness for beef businesses was the implementation of management strategies to achieve the optimal herd structure, steer sale age, and breeder body condition. Other key strategies to improve profitability across northern Australia were (1) addressing a phosphorus deficiency for cattle through effective supplementation and (2) establishing adapted perennial legume-grass pastures to improve steer nutrition. In addition, we identify the benefits of working closely with livestock managers and industry to gain adoption of proven technologies that effectively improve decision-making capacity and the drought preparedness of extensive livestock production systems. The usefulness of the farm-management economics approach to assess the relative value of alternative tactical destocking and restocking decisions during drought response and recovery is also discussed. These latter analyses can highlight important differences between options in terms of future profit and cash flow, as well as the ability to rapidly return the property to the most profitable herd structure and age of turnoff, with consideration of production and financial risk. Additionally, integrating pasture growth models with herd or flock economic models can provide insights into the effects, on profitability and sustainability, of alternative destocking and later restocking strategies over the longer term. Combined, the farm-management economics framework approach can support more informed decision-making by livestock producers and hence enable more profitable and drought resilient extensive livestock production systems. However, achieving drought resilience in the grazing lands of northern Australia will require emphasis on drought preparation, in addition to appropriate action in response and recovery phases of drought. Key to this approach is increasing the adoption of strategies that enhance drought preparedness.

Can a return to small ruminants increase profitability and drought resilience in the semiarid rangelands of northern Australia?

Context The semiarid rangelands of northern Australia have high climate variability and a history of suffering periodic severe droughts. To remain viable, livestock businesses in the rangelands need to build resilience to climatic and market variability by regularly producing a profit and increasing wealth. Aims Our aim was to use the farm-management economics framework to conduct a contemporary assessment of the profitability and resilience of alternative livestock enterprises in the semiarid rangelands of northern Australia. Methods Livestock options were examined for a constructed, hypothetical property representative of the central-western Queensland rangelands (16 200 ha; long-term carrying capacity 1071 adult equivalents). First, the profitability of beef cattle, wool sheep, meat sheep and meat goat enterprises was assessed in a steady-state analysis using herd or flock budgeting models. Second, farm-level, partial discounted cash-flow budgets were applied to consider the value of integrating or fully adopting over time several of the alternative enterprises from the starting base enterprise of either a self-replacing (1) beef cattle herd or (2) wool sheep flock. Key results In the steady-state analysis of existing enterprises, meat sheep and rangeland meat goat enterprises produced the greatest rate of return on total capital (3.9 and 3.7% per annum respectively). The operating profit, of all self-replacing herds or flocks, was most sensitive to meat prices. Where full investment in a wild dog exclusion fence around the boundary of the property, and some refurbishment of existing infrastructure, was required to convert from beef to small ruminant production, the investment increased the riskiness and indebtedness of the overall enterprise. This was the case even when the long-term operating profit of the property could be substantially improved, e.g. by a change to rangeland meat goats (extra A$45 700 profit/annum). Conclusions Existing small ruminant enterprises in the semiarid rangelands of Queensland are profitable and resilient alternatives, based on contemporary prices. However, when changing from the predominant beef cattle enterprise, and incurring significant capital costs to do so, financial risk is substantially increased, which has implications for property managers. Implications The farm-management economics framework should be used by individual grazing businesses for their specific circumstances, to support decision-making.

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions of New Zealand beef through better integration of dairy and beef production

Integrating dairy and beef production offers opportunities to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of beef production, which is dominated by emissions related to maintenance of the breeding cow. This study aims to quantify the GHG reduction potential of the New Zealand (NZ) beef sector when replacing beef breeding cows and their calves with dairy beef animals. To this end, we combined a cattle herd model of NZ beef and dairy production with GHG emission calculations of beef production. We computed GHG emissions (to farm-gate stage) of the current amount of beef produced, while increasing the number of dairy beef calves at the expense of the number of suckler-beef calves. GHG emissions were 29% lower per kg carcass weight for dairy beef animals compared to suckler-beef animals. The average emission intensity decreased from 21.3 to 16.7 kg CO2e per kg carcass weight (−22%) as the number of suckler-beef animals declined to zero and dairy beef animals increased. Integrating dairy and beef production would enable the NZ beef sector to reduce annual GHG emissions by nearly 2000 kt CO2e (i.e. 22% of the total sector's emissions), while the dairy sector would improve their social licence to operate by reducing the number of surplus dairy calves slaughtered from 4-days old.

An economic framework to evaluate alternative management strategies for beef enterprises in northern Australia

Context Beef producers in northern Australia are continually presented with new technologies and opportunities to enhance beef production. They need to be able to accurately and efficiently assess the potential impact of alternative strategies on profitability, risk and the period of time before benefits can be expected. Aims Our aim was to demonstrate the value of the farm-management economics framework for assessing alternative management strategies applicable to beef cattle enterprises in northern Australia. Methods Beef cattle herd models incorporated into a farm-level partial discounted cash-flow framework were used to evaluate the potential effects of alternative management strategies on the performance of enterprises. This was undertaken using constructed, representative beef enterprises developed for the following three regions in Queensland: Central, Northern Downs and Northern Gulf, and the Katherine region of the Northern Territory. The analysis considered the expected response to change in the management of the base herd. Strategies that targeted (1) overall herd or property performance, (2) breeder reproductive performance, (3) steer growth rates, (4) alternative beef cattle marketing options, or (5) enterprise expansion were assessed. All of the changes considered to the current management strategy of the base herd and property were put forward by industry participants as potentially positive. Key results The framework efficiently identified substantial differences in net benefits among strategies and allowed ranking of the alternatives at the property level. Strategies that improved profitability also generally increased management complexity and financial risk. While strategies that could substantially improve profitability were identified, many other strategies were likely to reduce profitability at the property level. Key insights were gained into the time taken to implement the strategies, the complexity of implementation, and the level of financial risk incurred. Conclusions This study (1) demonstrated the appropriate framework to compare management options and support decision making, (2) efficiently indicated the potential range of outcomes, and (3) provided insight into the risks associated with development processes and technology adoption. Implications This farm-management economics framework could be used to assess alternative strategies for individual beef enterprises and to guide appropriate adoption of technology.

Learning Model Of Dribbling Futsal Ball Game Based For Junior High School Students

This research research and development aims to produce a Learning model of dribbling futsal ball game-based for junior high school students. In addition, this research and development is carried out to obtain in depth information about development and application of Futsal herding models for junior high school student and to find out the effectiveness, efficiency, also attractiveness of children to models created. This study uses Research & Development (R & D) development research method from Borg and Gall. The subjects in this research and development were junior high school students consisting of 60 children. The instruments used were questionnaires, questionnaires, and futsal dribbling test instruments used to collect volleyball bottom service data for junior high school aged student, while the stages in this research and development were: (1) needs analysis, (2) expert evaluation (initial product evaluation); (3) limited trials (small group trials); and (4) main testing (field testing). The model effectiveness test uses the futsal ball dribbling skill to determine the level of ability to dribble a futsal ball for junior high school age before giving a treatment in the form of a dribbling model developed and to determine the level of ability to dribble after the dribbling model treatment or treatments developed, from the initial tests performed dribbling a student ball of 750, Based on the development results, it can be concluded that: (1) By futsal dribbling learning model for junior high school age, it can be developed and applied in physical education learning at school (2) By futsal dribbling learning model for junior high school age that has been developed, evidence of an increase is obtained. This is shown in the testing results from pretest and posttest data that there is a significant difference between before and after the treatment model.

Bayesian estimation of the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in Hungarian dairy cattle herds

Paratuberculosis is a chronic incurable disease caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), which leads to extensive economic losses on dairy farms, and may also pose serious public health risk to the consumers. The aim of our study was to estimate the true prevalence of paratuberculosis in commercial dairy cattle herds participating in a voluntary MAP testing programme that started in February 2018 in Hungary. Milk samples collected during official milk recording were used for MAP ELISA testing. A Bayesian two-stage hierarchical (herd and animal level) model was fitted to the data. Altogether, 26,437 cows from 51 herds were sampled, which represents 14.4 % of the Hungarian dairy cow population. The median herd size was 477 cows (interquartile range: 331–709). Each studied farm had at least one ELISA positive cow, resulting in a herd-level apparent prevalence of 100 %. The overall within herd apparent prevalence was 5.5 %. Herd-level true prevalence was estimated at 89.1 % [95 % credible interval (CrI): 80.3–95.6%]. Within the infected herds, the median animal-level true prevalence was 4.4 % (3.2–5.8%) for primiparous and 10.3 % (7.9–12.9%) for multiparous cows, respectively. The probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% among primiparous cows, within infected herds, was 17.8 %. Similarly, the probability of having an animal-level true prevalence of at least 5% or 10 % among multiparous cows was 100 % and 56 %, respectively. Simulations assuming herd-level true prevalence varying from 50 to 100 % revealed high accuracy of our Bayesian model. Our study showed that a large percentage of the studied Hungarian dairy cattle herds was infected with MAP.

Identification of risk factors associated with Coxiella burnetii infection in cattle and buffaloes in India

The etiological agent Coxiella burnetii is a highly infectious gram-negative bacterium that can affect multiple species. Many reports confirm its presence in humans, domestic ruminants and rodents in India. This study was aimed to investigate the risk factors associated with C. burnetii infection in bovine populations in Punjab, India. This study was conducted using a stratified two-stage random sampling approach. Twenty-two villages representing all districts of the state were selected. Bovine farmers were interviewed and detailed information about their management and husbandry practices was collected using a structured questionnaire. Blood, milk and genital swab samples were collected from the cattle and buffaloes owned by the farmers. An animal was declared C. burnetii infected by using a combination of tests in parallel, i.e. if it was positive in serological or molecular tests (IgG indirect ELISA or Trans-PCR assay). A herd was considered positive if at least one animal in the herd was declared C. burnetii infected using the above definition. Three binomial logistic regression models were constructed to evaluate the association of (a) geographical location, herd characteristics, and farm management practices with the herd status (herd model), (b) individual animal related factors with the C. burnetii infection status (individual animal model), and (c) production and health related factors with C. burnetii infection status in adult females (adult female model). We collected a total of 610 blood, 610 genital swabs and 361 milk samples from 378 cattle and 232 buffaloes in 179 herds/households. The practice of throwing away aborted materials outside the farm as compared to burial/burning (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 3.0, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.14–7.87, p = 0.02) was associated with larger odds of being a C. burnetii infected herd. On the other hand, separation of the animals from the rest of the herd during parturition had a protective effect for being a C. burnetii infected herd (adjusted OR 0.31, 95 % CI 0.18–0.77, p = 0.01). Being cattle as compared to buffalo (adjusted OR 3.37, 95 % CI 1.23–9.20, p = 0.02) and older (adjusted OR 3.37, 95 % CI 1.23–9.20, p = 0.02) were associated with larger odds of C. burnetii infection. The current study highlights that farm practices such as improper aborted material disposal and not separating the animals from the rest of the herd during parturition are important risks for the occurrence of C. burnetii infection in the bovine populations in the state.

On Uniform Boundedness of Sequential Social Learning

In the classical herding model, asymptotic learning refers to situations where individuals eventually take the correct action regardless of their private information. Classical results identify classes of information structures for which such learning occurs. Recent papers have argued that typically, even when asymptotic learning occurs, it takes a very long time. In this paper related questions are referred. We studiy whether there is a natural family of information structures for which the time it takes until individuals learn is uniformly bounded from above. Indeed, we propose a simple bi-parametric criterion that defines the information structure, and on top of that compute the time by which individuals learn (with high probability) for any pair of parameters. Namely, we identify a family of information structures where individuals learn uniformly fast. The underlying technical tool we deploy is a uniform convergence result on a newly introduced class of ‘weakly active’ supermartingales. This result extends an earlier result of Fudenberg and Levine (1992) on active supermartingales.

Evaluation of increased feed supply and different fattening strategies for an Ethiopian sheep population by system dynamics modelling

Context The productivity of Ethiopian smallholder farms is considered to be low owing to different factors such as feed shortage, lack of breeding strategies, disease prevalence and missing marketing strategies. Aim The main objective of the study was to develop a dynamic, stochastic herd model by adopting system dynamic modelling methodology for evaluation of the effect of increased feed availability (forage production) in combination with different fattening strategies on herd dynamics and profitability of an Ethiopian sheep population. Methods Forage production utilising part of smallholder farmers’ cropland was built into a dynamic simulation model. Two alternative feed-supply systems were evaluated: turning 25% and 50% of the current cropland into area used for forage production. The simulation period was 20 years, the first 10 years representing the baseline fattening scenario (culled rams fattened). For the last 10 years, genetic selection was introduced and two scenarios were evaluated: fattening of culled rams (Scenario I) and fattening of young rams (Scenario II). Key results Increasing the feed supply resulted in an increase to the herd size when the model balanced dry matter supply and demand of the herd. Fattening of young rams (Scenario II) with genetic selection was significantly more profitable than the baseline and Scenario I in both of the simulated alternative feed-supply systems. This can be used for regular cash generation, which might reduce disposal of animals at lower price in cases of need for emergency cash. Conclusions Overall, the simulation model demonstrates that production of improved forage crops should be combined with selective breeding and an appropriate finishing strategy. The competition for resources (land and labour) with crop production, forage seed shortage and extended family size are other challenges raised by smallholder farmers for the feasibility of the two alternative feed-supply systems.

The economics of phosphorus supplementation of beef cattle grazing northern Australian rangelands

Context Phosphorus (P) deficiency occurs in beef cattle grazing many rangeland regions with low-P soils, including in northern Australia, and may severely reduce cattle productivity in terms of growth, reproductive efficiency and mortality. However, adoption of effective P supplementation by cattle producers in northern Australia is low. This is likely to be due to lack of information and understanding of the profitability of P supplementation where cattle are P-deficient. Aims The profitability of P supplementation was evaluated for two dissimilar regions of northern Australia, namely (1) the Katherine region of the Northern Territory, and (2) the Fitzroy Natural Resource Management (NRM) region of central Queensland. Methods Property-level, regionally relevant herd models were used to determine whole-of-business productivity and profitability over 30 years. The estimated costs and benefits of P supplementation were obtained from collation of experimental data and expert opinion of persons with extensive experience of the industry. The economic consequences of P supplementation at the property level were assessed by comparison of base production without P supplementation with the expected production of P-supplemented herds, and included the implementation phase and changes over time in herd structure. In the Katherine region, it was assumed that the entire cattle herd (breeders and growing cattle) grazed acutely P-deficient land types and the consequences of (1) no P supplementation, or P supplementation during (2) the dry season, or (3) both the wet and dry seasons (i.e. 3 scenarios) were evaluated. In the Fitzroy NRM region, it was assumed that only the breeders grazed P-deficient land types with three categories of P deficiency (marginal, deficient and acutely deficient), each with either (1) no P supplementation, or P supplementation during (2) the wet season, (3) the dry season, or (4) both the wet and dry seasons (i.e. 12 scenarios). Key results In the Katherine region, year-round P supplementation of the entire cattle herd (7400 adult equivalents) grazing acutely P-deficient pasture resulted in a large increase in annual business profit (+AU$500000). Supplementing with P (and N) only in the dry season increased annual business profit by +AU$200000. In the Fitzroy NRM region, P supplementation during any season of the breeder herd grazing deficient or acutely P-deficient pastures increased profit by +AU$2400–AU$45000/annum (total cattle herd 1500 adult equivalents). Importantly, P supplementation during the wet season-only resulted in the greatest increases in profit within each category of P deficiency, comprising +AU$5600, AU$6300 and AU$45000 additional profit per annum for marginal, deficient and acutely P-deficient herds respectively. Conclusions The large economic benefits of P supplementation for northern beef enterprises estimated in the present study substantiate the current industry recommendation that effective P supplementation is highly profitable when cattle are grazing P-deficient land types. Implications The contradiction of large economic benefits of P supplementation and the generally low adoption rates by the cattle industry in northern Australia suggests a need for targeted research and extension to identify the specific constraints to adoption, including potential high initial capital costs.

Motivations for Loan Herding by Chinese Banks and Its Impact on Bank Performance

AbstractThis study uses a dynamic herding model that considers intertemporal and cross‐sectional correlation to confirm that loan herding occurs among joint‐stock commercial banks (JSCBs) and city commercial banks (CCBs). We clarify the motivations for bank loan herding. We find that loan herding by both JSCBs and CCBs results more from following the behavior of other same‐type banks than different‐type banks because of characteristic herding or reputational concerns. Loan herding by JSCBs is motivated by investigative herding, whereas loan herding by CCBs results from informational cascades. Moreover, loan herding has a significantly harmful impact on the operating performance of CCBs but not JSCBs, which may be explained by the irrational behavior of CCBs. Our results will help Chinese bank supervisors develop appropriate policies for handling loan herding.

A Kinetic Description for the Herding Behavior in Financial Market

As a continuation of the study of the herding model proposed in (Bae et al. in arXiv:1712.01085, 2017), we consider in this paper the derivation of the kinetic version of the herding model, the existence of the measure-valued solution and the corresponding herding behavior at the kinetic level. We first consider the mean-field limit of the particle herding model and derive the existence of the measure-valued solutions for the kinetic herding model. We then study the herding phenomena of the solutions in two different ways by introducing two different types of herding energy functionals. First, we derive a herding phenomena of the measure-valued solutions under virtually no restrictions on the parameter sets using the Barbalat's lemma. We, however, don't get any herding rate in this case. On the other hand, we also establish a Gr\"onwall type estimate for another herding functional, leading to the exponential herding rate, under comparatively strict conditions. These results are then extended to smooth solutions.

The active selfish herd

The selfish herd hypothesis provides an explanation for group aggregation via the selfish avoidance of predators. Conceptually, and as was first proposed, this movement should aim to minimise the danger domain of each individual. Whilst many reasonable proxies have been proposed, none have directly sought to reduce the danger domain. In this work we present a two dimensional stochastic model that actively optimises these domains. The individuals’ dynamics are determined by sampling the space surrounding them and moving to achieve the largest possible domain reduction. Two variants of this idea are investigated with sampling occurring either locally or globally. We simulate our models and two of the previously proposed benchmark selfish herd models: k-nearest neighbours (kNN); and local crowded horizon (LCH). The resulting positions are analysed to determine the benefit to the individual and the group’s ability to form a compact group. To do this, the group level metric of packing fraction and individual level metric of domain size are observed over time for a range of noise levels. With these measures we show a clear stratification of the four models when noise is not included. kNN never resulted in centrally compacted herd, while the local active selfish model and LCH did so with varying levels of success. The most centralised groups were achieved with our global active selfish herd model. The inclusion of noise improved aggregation in all models. This was particularly so with the local active selfish model with a change to ordering of performance so that it marginally outperformed LCH in aggregation. By more closely following Hamilton’s original conception and aligning the individual’s goal of a reduced danger domain with the movement it makes increased cohesion is observed, thus confirming his hypothesis, however, these findings are dependent on noise. Moreover, many features originally conjectured by Hamilton are also observed in our simulations.

Long and Short‐distance Transhumance in Ancient Greece: The Case of Arkadia

SummaryWe argue for short‐distance transhumance as a system of livestock mobility in ancient Arkadia, as well as in many other parts of ancient Greece. This model is a sustainable system of animal husbandry that resolves the technical and political issues posed by long‐distance transhumance and provides a historical interpretation of ancient Arkadian economies using a household herding model. Moreover, it helps us to integrate economy and socio‐political identity in mountainous areas. For this reason, we argue that it is necessary to revamp the traditional model for understanding ancient Greek husbandry, which is based on the opposition between astu and chora. This model has contributed greatly to fostering an image of ancient Arkadia as a territory especially dedicated to pastoralism, with the possible presence of long‐distance transhumance. However, archaeological, environmental and historical studies call into question the traditional models and point to other interpretations.

Productivity and profitability of alternative steer growth paths resulting from accessing high-quality forage systems in the subtropics of northern Australia: a modelling approach

Beef producers have to determine the best allocation of a limited resource of high-quality forage. This analysis assessed the most profitable way of incorporating high-quality forages into the whole-of-life steer growth path on forage systems in central Queensland, using property-level, regionally relevant herd models that determine whole-of-business productivity and profitability over a 30-year investment period. Twenty-two growth paths (liveweight change over time) from weaning to marketing were investigated for steers grazing buffel grass (Cenchrus ciliaris) pastures with and without access to leucaena–grass pastures (Leucaena leucocephala spp. glabrata + perennial, tropical grass (C4) species) or forage oats (Avena sativa) for varying intervals throughout their growth path. The production, economic and financial effect of each growth path was assessed by comparison to a base scenario that produced finished, slaughter steers (605 kg) from buffel grass pastures. The relative profitability of marketing steers at feedlot entry (feed-on) weight (474 kg) instead of slaughter weights was also assessed. The growth paths were applied within two beef enterprises, namely (1) steer turnover and (2) breeding and finishing. For both enterprises, grazing steers on leucaena-grass pastures from weaning until they achieved feedlot entry weight (474 kg) was substantially more profitable than any other growth path. Compared with the base scenario, this optimal growth path improved profitability by 121% and 37% for the steer turnover and the breeding and finishing enterprises respectively. The purchase of additional breeders for the latter enterprise was required to optimise utilisation of the leucaena–grass pastures immediately. Incorporating leucaena–grass pastures at any steer age improved the profitability of the steer turnover enterprise (AU$7368–AU$106508 extra profit/annum), and similarly for the breeding and finishing enterprise (AU$1754–AU$31383 extra profit/annum) except for two scenarios where leucaena–grass pastures were provided to older steers targeted at the feed-on market (AU$4816 and AU$23886 less profit/annum). However, incorporation of leucaena–grass into steer growth paths also resulted in increased peak deficit levels and financial risk to the business compared with buffel grass-only production systems, with payback periods for the most profitable growth path of 8 and 14 years for the steer turnover and the breeding and finishing enterprise respectively. All growth paths that incorporated forage oats and leucaena–grass resulted in lower economic and financial performance than did comparable growth paths that incorporated leucaena–grass only. Furthermore, incorporating oats into buffel grass-only growth paths always reduced the enterprise profitability. There was no relationship, across scenarios within an enterprise, between change in profit and the number of extra weaners produced or the amount of extra beef produced per hectare.