Herd Effect Research Articles

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines in children

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs), which have been in population-wide use in children for over two decades now, are highly efficacious in preventing life threatening pneumococcal infections. The strong herd effect of PCVs through reduction in pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in vaccinated children prevents disease in adults as well. Since 7vPCV, which was the first PCV used widely, several new PCVs with each adding more serotypes have been developed. These new PCVs have been approved using immune-bridging criteria based on an aggregate correlate of protection (Cp) derived from vaccine efficacy and antibody responses data from early PCV trials. This Cp that the World Health Organization (WHO) accepts for assessing new PCVs for which it is impracticable to undertake placebo-controlled trials with clinical outcomes is 0.35 μg mL–1 of enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) immunoglobulin G (IgG). Effectiveness and antibody response data more recently of 13vPCV has led to developing Cp for each individual vaccine serotype, that, for some, varies considerably to 0.35 μg mL–1. In trials of newest PCVs, such as 15vPCV and 20vPCV, the comparator used is 13vPCV that has, in turn, been licensed using immune bridging, which leads to potential ‘downward-drift’ risk of protection from the new PCVs. This and the data that have emerged on serotype replacement disease and dosing schedules makes it important to review and rethink how new PCVs are assessed, their clinical benefits are inferred and vaccination programs are designed.

Social Biases and Equity Investment Decisions of Individual Investors: Behavior Finance Perspective

Individual investors may not always pose a rational decision on stock market and heavily guided by their behavioral and social biases. This study is delineated to examine the role of social factors in the decision-making process of individual investors. This study is based on quantitative research approach and utilized a 5-points Likert type closed-end structured questionnaire survey to collect the data from 269 individuals, invested in the firms listed at Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE). This study utilized reliability analysis, descriptive statistics, Pearson correlation coefficient and ordinary least square (OLS) method. Evidence indicates that herding, social interaction and media effect shows the positive influences on equity investment decision process of the investors. Finally, this study justified that social biases play the significant role for equity investment decisions of the individual investors through excessive follow the humor of the market place, over or under reaction of the information about securities, follow the suggestions and recommendations of peers, friends, family members and neighbors along with highly depend upon news, social medias and information of so-called experts of capital market that leads to investment mistakes. Hence, investors should strongly follow the proper information about stock and market, utilize their own knowledge about information processing and analysis, and try to reduce the biases while making decisions through information analysis and processing that may downsize the irrational decisions.

Adult non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia in Portugal is dominated by serotype 3 and non-PCV13 serotypes 3-years after near universal PCV13 use in children.

Non-invasive pneumococcal pneumonia (NIPP) is possibly the most frequent infection by Streptococcus pneumoniae in adults. However, the herd effect of vaccinating children in adult NIPP (aNIPP) remains poorly characterized. We determined the serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility of isolates causing aNIPP (>18 years) in 2016-2018 in Portugal; 3 years with near universal vaccination of children with the 13-valent conjugate vaccine (PCV13), following over a decade of significant PCV use in children in the private market. Among the 1,149 aNIPP isolates, the most frequent serotypes detected were: 3 (n = 168, 14.6%), 11A (n = 102, 8.9%), 19F (n = 70, 6.1%), 23A and 23B (n = 62, 5.4% each), 9N (n = 60, 5.2%), 8 and 29/35B (n = 43, 3.7% each); together accounting for 53% of all isolates. The serotype distribution causing aNIPP was stable in 2016-2018, with the serotypes included in PCV7 still being important causes of disease and serotype 3, a PCV13 serotype, remaining the leading cause of aNIPP. There was an increase in penicillin non-susceptibility from 17% in 2016 to 24% in 2018 (p = 0.018). Some PCV13 serotypes, such as 14, 19A and 19F were associated to resistance, which may have contributed to their persistence. The fact that close to 20% of aNIPP is caused by four non-vaccine serotypes (23A, 23B, 9N, and 29/35B) and that there were significant differences in serotype distribution relative to invasive disease, stress the importance of maintaining the surveillance of these infections. The lack of a continued herd effect from vaccinating children and the significant fraction of aNIPP potentially preventable by PCV13 (30%), PCV15 (34%), PCV20 (53%) and the 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine (61%) underscore the importance of considering the broader use of pneumococcal vaccines in adults.

Analisis Faktor-Faktor Yang Mempengaruhi Keputusan Investasi Mahasiswa Akuntansi Di Kota Batam

Accounting students in Batam City invest with the awareness of wanting to gain prosperity in the future by utilizing the remaining pocket money or residual salary in the hope that the investment made will generate a profit. The right investment decision is needed to achieve this goal. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of financial literacy, herding and risk perception on investment decisions. Quantitative research methods based on primary data are used in this study. This study collected the necessary data by distributing questionnaires to several universities in Batam City with the main focus being accounting students, totaling 1,502 students. The Likert scale was used to measure the questionnaire using a sample of 316 respondents. The probability sampling technique is used in the sampling process. Statistical tools, namely the SPSS V26 program, are used to test or perform data analyses, namely: descriptive statistics, data quality tests, classical assumption tests, multiple linear regression tests, determinant coefficient tests, and hypothesis testing. The results of the study found that financial literacy, herding and risk perception had a positive and significant effect on the investment decisions of accounting students in Batam City

Expressions of Irrational Investment Behaviour and Proposals to Reduce the Irrational Behaviour

Behaviour finance gained more and more weight in the development of finance theory in comparison to standard finance theory which is dominated by the efficient market hypothesis. As a field of behavioural economics, it combines psychology and finance to understand how human behaviour and cognitive biases impact financial decision-making. Some market anomalies which seem strange or impossible according to standard finance theory can be understood and explained with the help of behavioural finance theory. Through analysis and literature review, this paper explores the common expressions of irrational behaviour such as representativeness, herd effect, anchoring, overconfidence, and their effect on the investment financial market. This paper finds that people can be easily influenced by any given information. Individuals personalities and social backgrounds also play a decisive role in making investment decisions. Therefore, some possibilities and advice to reduce the losses caused by human cognitive biases are also provided in the paper.

Do Cryptocurrencies Exhibit Herding Behavior? Evidence from CSSD and CSAD Approaches

This paper investigates whether herding behavior is present in the rapidly growing cryptocurrency market. It analyzes herding behavior over a 4-year period by using the daily closing price data of 16 cryptocurrencies and CSSD and CSAD. The findings indicated that with CSSD, no herding was detected for the entire time period. However, for CSAD, a weak herding effect was observed but it was statistically insignificant. The evidence further revealed that the 8 cryptocurrencies with the lowest market capitalization, both CSSD and CSAD showed a higher chance of herding behavior. Similarly, in times of higher volatility, there was a higher chance of herding behavior. It was also found that there was no herding behavior during the start of COVID-19, the FTX bankruptcy, or Google Trends. This paper has important implications for cryptocurrency investors, especially retail investors who may invest more in smaller cryptocurrencies. They should be more cautious when approaching lower market map cryptocurrencies and during times of high market volatility to prevent greater financial loss.

Experimental study on the decision-making and motion behavior of subgroups when facing a static obstacle during movement

The interaction between pedestrians and obstacles is an interesting research topic in pedestrian and evacuation dynamics. Many studies on this topic have treated single individuals or human crowds as objects and have drawn a lot of research findings. However, as an intermediate layer linking the individual and group levels, subgroups have rarely been considered in such studies, and little is known about their behavioral mechanisms when interacting with obstacles. From this, we want to understand how certain key factors affect the decision-making and motion behavior of subgroups when facing a static obstacle during movement. Here, we organize a series of controlled experiments, in which the obstacle width, time pressure, and subgroup size serve as three control variables to create various experimental conditions. The analysis of the experimental data shows that a wider obstacle width, a more urgent time pressure, and a larger subgroup size correspond to a higher proportion of the splitting–merging state. The strong right-side preference emerges in the maintaining state, but the movement preference in the splitting–merging state largely depends on the difference in subgroup sizes. The path lengths in the splitting–merging state are longer than those in the maintaining state, but no significant difference exists in movement times between the two movement states. The conclusion that the average speeds decrease with increasing subgroup size at normal densities can be extended to most conditions of different obstacle widths, time pressures, and movement states. Besides, the three control variables have various influence degrees on centroid positions, movement times, and average speeds in the splitting and merging processes, and the herding effect of subgroup members can be observed in the merging process. Overall, these findings may advance the understanding of subgroup behaviors and support the development of subgroup models.

1735. Impact of Children Universal Pneumococcal Vaccination (PCV7v/PCV13v) on Pneumococcal Invasive Disease Hospitalizations in a Private General Hospital, Uruguay

Abstract Background In 2008 Uruguay included pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) 7valent in children´s vaccination program (2+1). In 2010 PCV13 replaced PCV7. Since 2015, adults at risk of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) may receive 23 valent polysaccharide vaccine (PV23) or combined schedule PCV13+PV23. Objective: to assess the impact of this strategy on IPD hospitalization. Methods Rates per 10,000 discharges (Confidence Interval 95 %), diseases and serotypes (ST) are described before PCV7 vaccination (2006-2007), the year of vaccine implementation (2008), early after implementation (2009-2015) and late after implementation (2016-2022), the last 3 years during COVID-19 pandemic. Results In 2006-2022 were 33 IPD cases in children and 88 in adults over 15 years old. Children´s hospitalization median annual rates were as follow 2006-2007: 50 (25-75); 2008: 18,5 (-2-39); 2009-2015: 8,5 (3-14); 2016-2022: 4 (0-8); percentages of rate reduction were 82,5% and 92% (p< 0.0000). In adults 2006-2007: 17 (10-25); 2008: 13,4 (4,62-22,1); 2009-2015: 6,6 (4,4-9); 2016-2022: 6 (3,5-8,5); percentages of rate reduction were 63,5% and 66 % (p= 0,0001). Pneumococcal pneumonia (PP) was the most frequent disease in children 22/33 (66,6%), followed by bacteremia 8/32. PP was also in adults 68/88 (77.2,7%), followed by meningitis (7/88). One non vaccinated child died in 2008. Case fatality rate in adults was 9% (8/88), 3 died in 2006-2007, 2 in 2009-20215 and 3 in 2016-2022. 24 different ST were isolated in adults. Most frequent ST were 12F(15), 7F(11), 1(8), 8(7), 3(6) and 5(6). PCV13 would cover 38/88 (43%). A significant decline in PCV13 serotypes (PCV13-ST) was observed comparing the period prior PCV 17/22 (77%) with the late period 8/24 (34%) (p< 0.0000). 15 different ST were isolated in children: 26 PCV13-ST. 16 prior 2008: most frequent ST 1(5), 14(4), 3(2) and 5(2). In 2009-2022 13 hospitalizations; PCV13-ST: 1(2), 19A(2), 14(1), 6B< (1), 9V(1), 3(1) and non PCV13-ST: 7B/C(1), 24F(1), 13(1), 15A(1), 15B(1). A significant decline of PCV13-ST was observed comparing the period prior PCV (15/16, 94%) with the late period (2/4, 50 %) (p< 0.0000). Conclusion There was a reduction in children’s discharge rates and in adults´ probably due to herd effect. Adult vaccination will improve individual immunization. Disclosures María Catalina Pírez, Pediatrician, Pediatric infectologist, microbiologist Professor of pediatric, Degree V, Merck, Pfizer: Expert Testimony|Merck, Pfizer: Honoraria

The Influence of Overconfidence Bias, Herding Effect, and Loss Aversion on Investment Decisions in The Capital Market with Financial Literacy as A Moderating Variable

This study aims to examine the effect of overconfidence bias, herding effect, and loss aversion on investment decisions in the capital market with financial literacy as a moderating variable study on Generation Z novice investors in Malang. Sample determination is used by the accidental sampling method. The research data sources came from observations, interviews and questionnaires. Data analysis using the SEM-PLS approach with WarpPLS 7.0 software. The results showed that overconfidence bias, herding effect, and loss aversion had a positive and significant effect on investment decisions. Financial literacy can moderate the effect of overconfidence bias, and loss aversion on investment decisions. Financial literacy cannot moderate the influence of the herding effect on investment decisions.

Study on the influence of the information diffusion and vaccination behavior on disease transmission in multiplex networks

To investigate the influence of information diffusion and vaccination behavior on disease transmission. In this paper, a coupling model is proposed to describe the co-evolution process of information diffusion, vaccination behavior and disease transmission in multiplex network. In the information layer, two types of information are diffused, including the positive information and the negative information, respectively. During the process of information diffusion, the influence of mass media on information diffusion is considered, due to the herd effect, which type of information is believed to depend on the information state of the surrounding neighbors based on the Heaviside step function. In the behavioral layer, the individuals with different types of information will choose different immune behavioral responses, which in turn will influence the disease transmission. The coupling model was analyzed by using the Micro Markov Chain Approach (MMCA) to obtain state transition equations and the prevalence thresholds for disease. By simulating the simulation experiments, it demonstrates that the information diffusion has no direct effect on disease prevalence thresholds, but affects the proportion of infected; vaccination behavior has a significant effect on disease prevalence thresholds and also affects the proportion of infected. The results of the study suggest that when the disease transmission is within the controllable range, the stronger the diffusion of positive information, the higher the vaccination rate, which has a more positive influence on inhibiting disease transmission; once out of control, the official will lose trust, which is not conducive to disease control.

Impact of online information on the pricing and profits of firms with different levels of brand reputation

A high brand reputation is usually associated with a brand premium and high profit. Does it still hold in the online market with rich information? How do the sales volume information and ratings information change the influence of the existing brand reputation? This study investigates a two-period pricing model of duopoly firms with different levels of brand reputation (high vs. low) in the presence of online information. We examine the impact of online information on firms’ optimal pricing and profits while considering the impact of brand reputation. Our analytical results find that in the presence of online information, the brand premium may be negative, and the firm with a lower brand reputation can earn higher profit under certain conditions. In addition, the profits of both firms may increase as the brand reputation gap increases, which implies a win-win situation in the brand competition. This study deepens our understanding of brand reputation in the context of online market, which is influenced by the herding effect and price effect of online information. The theoretical results provide guidelines for the design of online reputation systems, brand cooperation, and information disclosure.

Biased Behavior and Stock Investment Decisions of Investors in Bali, Indonesia

Investment decisions are often affected by irrational behavioral factors that cause improper logical analysis. Herding and overconfidence are two behaviors that lead to biased decision-making, specifically regarding investment. Therefore, this study aimed to test the effect of herding and overconfidence on investment decisions moderated by financial knowledge and attitude. Using a sample of 267 stock investors, the test was conducted with PLS-SEM. The results showed that overconfidence positively influences individuals' investment decisions, while herding has no effect. Financial knowledge and attitude were found not to moderate this effect but could act as predictor variables with a significant positive impact on investment decisions.
 Keywords: Herding; Financial Knowledge; Financial Attitude; Financial Behavior Overconfidence.

Lactation modeling and the effects of rotational crossbreeding on milk production traits and milk-spectra-predicted enteric methane emissions

Rotational crossbreeding has not been widely studied in relation to the enteric methane emissions of dairy cows, nor has the variation in emissions during lactation been modeled. Milk infrared spectra could be used to predict proxies of methane emissions in dairy cows. Therefore, the objective of this work was to study the effects of crossbreeding on the predicted infrared proxies of methane emissions and the variation in the latter during lactation. Milk samples were taken once from 1,059 cows reared in 2 herds, and infrared spectra of the milk were used to predict milk fat (mean ± SD; 3.79 ± 0.81%) and protein (3.68 ± 0.36%) concentrations, yield (21.4 ± 1.5 g/kg dry matter intake), methane intensity (14.2 ± 2.0 g/kg corrected milk), and daily methane production (358 ± 108 g/d). Of these cows, 620 were obtained from a 3-breed (Holstein, Montbéliarde, and Viking Red) rotational mating system, and the rest were purebred Holsteins. Milk production data and methane traits were analyzed using a nonlinear model that included the fixed effects of herd, genetic group, and parity, and the 4 parameters (a, b, c, and k) of a lactation curve modeled using the Wilmink function. Milk infrared spectra were found to be useful for direct prediction of qualitative proxies, such as methane yield and intensity, but not quantitative traits, such as daily methane production, which appears to be better estimated (450 ± 125 g/d) by multiplying a measured daily milk yield by infrared-predicted methane intensity. Lactation modeling of methane traits showed daily methane production to have a zenith curve, similar to that of milk yield but with a delayed peak (53 vs. 37 d in milk), whereas methane intensity is characterized by an upward curve that increases rapidly during the first third of lactation and then slowly till the end of lactation (10.5 g/kg at 1 d in milk to 15.2 g/kg at 300 d in milk). However, lactation modeling was not useful in explaining methane yield, which is almost constant during lactation. Lastly, the methane yield and intensity of cows from 3-breed rotational crossbreeding are not greater, and their methane production is lower than that of purebred Holsteins (452 vs. 477 g/d). Given the greater longevity of crossbred cows, and their lower replacement rate, rotational crossbreeding could be a way of mitigating the environmental impact of milk production.

On the influencing factors of AH shares linkage in China under new regulation policy of reduction

AH stock premium and its price linkage have always been the key problems of concern for scholars and investors. Taking the stock price yield of AH stock as the explanatory variable, this paper adopts the panel quantile model to probe into the linkage mechanism of AH stock price from five aspects such as risk difference, liquidity difference, demand elasticity difference, information asymmetry and new regulation policy of reduction. Due to the herding effect, information asymmetry has a negative effect on the H-share yield in the income and loss intervals, and a positive effect in the stable interval. The negative effect of liquidity difference on the H-share yield in the loss interval is converted into the positive effect in the income interval, but it is the most sensitive in high risk areas. The influence of demand elasticity on H-share yield is characterized by the typical characteristics of Chinese stock market “chasing after go up and killing cheapen” or “buying the winners”. Risk difference is not obvious because the behavior of risk lover and risk averter is offset by each other. The introduction of a 2017-year reduction in the new rules has significantly reduced the share price yield of H-shares. Finally, some suggestions are put forward for investors to invest and avoid risk in AH stocks and some specific policy implications for financial regulators are also provided based on these results.

PSII-10 Effect of Equine Chorionic Gonadotrophin-Like Glycoprotein Treatment on Fertility in Angus Cows Subjected to a 7-Day Co-Synch Protocol

Abstract This study evaluated the effect of administering a glycoprotein with equine chorionic gonadotropin like activity produced by recombinant DNA technology (eCG-like) associated with a 7-d Co-Synch protocol on estrus rate (ER) and pregnancy per timed AI (P/TAI). A total of 1,344 suckled Angus cows (primiparous, n = 381; multiparous, n = 963) from 11 herds were scanned at initiation of synchronization protocol by transrectal ultrasonography and the presence of corpus luteum (CL) and uterine tone was used to classify them by cycling. On day -10, cows received 100 μg GnRH analogue and a progesterone intravaginal device (IVD; 1.0g progesterone) for 7 days. At IVD removal, cows were administered 500 μg of cloprostenol and randomly assigned to receive 400 IU of eCG-like glycoprotein (Syntex S.A., Argentina, PCT/EP2019/073277; eCG-like, n = 665) or to remain as untreated (Control, n = 679). Also on day -3, paint was applied on the sacrum to the tail head of each cow. Finally, 100 μg GnRH analog were injected concurrently with TAI on Day 0 (66h after IVD removal) and the ER was evaluated by the degree of paint loss. Pregnancy to TAI was determined on day 30 by transrectal ultrasonography when an embryo and fluid were detected in the uterus. Body condition score (BCS; scale = 1-9) was evaluated on days -10 and 30. Optimal BCS was considered ≥ 5 and BCS balance between days -10 and 30 was classified as negative (lost BCS) or positive (maintained or gained BCS). The associations among treatment, parity, cyclicity at initiation of protocol, optimal BCS on day -10, and their interactions and ER and P/TAI were analyzed by GLIMMIX (SAS 9.3). Estrus expression and BCS balance were also included as effects in the model of pregnancy per TAI. The effect of herd was included as a random effect. The model specifications included an option to retrieve the mean, SEM, and an adjustment for multiple comparisons (Tukey-Kramer). The percentage of acyclic cows was 31.3%. The ER in cyclic cows was 64.9% and the eCG-like treatment increased ER only in anestrus cows (55.8 vs. 44.3%; Treatment x cyclicity interaction; P = 0.03). The percentage of cows with negative BCS balance was 27.2%. The P/TAI in cows with positive BCS balance was 48.4% and the eCG-like treatment increased P/TAI only in cows with negative BCS balance (44.7% vs. 30.5%; Treatment x BCS balance interaction; P = 0.01). In conclusion, the addition of a recombinant eCG-like glycoprotein to a 7-day Co-Synch protocol increased estrus expression in anestrus Angus cows and P/TAI in those with negative body condition score balance. However, this addition did not influence the estrus expression in cycling cows or on P/TAI in those with positive BCS balance.

PSXII-2 Lactation Persistence Analysis and Its Genetic Correlations with Productive, Reproductive, and Health Traits in the First Two Parities in Lucerna Cattle

Abstract Lactation persistency (LP) is a trait of economic relevance in dairy cattle since persistent cows are more profitable by presenting fewer diseases, requiring fewer inputs, and having better reproductive performance. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to estimate genetic relationships between lactation persistency for mastitis (MT), calving interval (CI), and 305–day milk yield (305M) in first and second Lucerna cattle lactations. Records from 67,952 test–day milk, 7,100 CI, and 1,074 clinical-mastitis evaluations from two Colombian farms of Creole dual-purpose cattle were considered. Five three-parameter equations, as reported in previous literature, were graphically and statistically evaluated for fitting a lactation curve (LC) for each parity. The goodness-of-fit criteria included AIC, BIC, RSS, and R2. The most appropriate equation was identified and implemented for predicting 305M for 4,620 lactations (2,716 and 1,904 from first and second parity, respectively) for which LP was estimated. Bi-trait animal models between LP-MT, LP-CI, and LP-M305 for each parity were executed in the BLUPF90+ software (AI-REML algorithm) to estimate heritabilities (h2) and genetic correlations (GC). Fixed effects of herd, year of calving, season of calving, b0 lactation parameter, and age at calving were included. Estimates of goodness-of-fit criteria for all LC equations varied between R2 (0.29 – 0.68), BIC (132,322 – 207,415), AIC (132,289 – 207,389), and RSS (188,231 – 414,007). The incomplete gamma equation best satisfied the goodness-of-fit-criteria and drew the most accurate LC in both parities. Due to the low data density in this work, estimates involving MT and CI had increased standard deviations; therefore, the interpretation should be considered cautiously. The h2 estimates were 0.0 and 0.24 for MT, 0.02 and 0.09 for CI, 0.18 and 0.36 for M305, and 0.14 and 0.15 for LP, for the first and second parity, respectively. The GC estimates were -0.24 and -0.41 for LP–M305, 0.31 – 0.35 for LP–CI, and -0.76 for LP–MT for each parity, respectively. The results of this study suggest that LP could be considered as a selection target in the farms’ breeding program since desirable relationships were found with all evaluated traits for the first and second parity.

Indirect (herd) effects of topical antibiotic prophylaxis and oral care versus non-antimicrobial methods increase mortality among ICU patients: realigning Cochrane review data to emulate a three-tier cluster randomised trial

ObjectiveThis study aimed to estimate the direct effects to recipients and indirect (herd) effects to non-recipients of each of topical antibiotic prophylaxis (TAP) and oral care methods on patient mortality...

Indirect impact of PCV10 children vaccination on the serotype distribution and antimicrobial resistance of Streptococcus pneumoniae causing invasive disease in adults over 50 in Colombia, 2005–2019: Observational analysis

IntroductionThe introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) into childhood vaccination programmes has reduced the prevalence of vaccine serotypes (VTs) that cause invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in children. In the elderly population, an impact has also been seen through indirect protection (herd effect). The aim of this study was to estimate the changes in serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility of Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates recovered from adult IPD and to evaluate the indirect effect of immunization with PCV10 based on laboratory records by analyzing the period from 2005 to 2019 for six years before and eight years after the universal PCV10 administration to Colombian children. MethodsA total of 2204 S. pneumoniae isolates from adults (≥50 years) with IPD were analyzed. The analysis examined the percentage changes in proportions (prevalence) and percentage variations in population rates (annual reported rates – ARR) of VTs between the pre-PCV10 (2005–2009) and post-PCV10 (2015–2019) periods. ResultsThe findings were (1) evidence of a significant percentage decrease of pneumococcal VT10 causing IPD in adults (50% pre-PCV10 and 16% post-PCV10); (2) significant increase of serotype 19A (from 1.6% to 14.8%) and less important increase of serotype 3 (from 10.5% to 14.5%) and non-vaccine serotypes (NVT) (from 21.4% to 38.4%) non-significant; and (3) meningitis and non-meningitis multidrug resistant isolates associated with serotype 19A. An improvement in the surveillance system is associated with the immunization of children, as noted by the increased ARRs across the analysis period. ConclusionsOur results show the indirect impact of PCV10 vaccination in children on the VT10 distribution and antimicrobial resistance of S. pneumoniae causing IPD in Colombian adults over 50 when comparing the pre-PCV10 (2005–2009) and post-PCV10 (2015–2019) periods.

Effects of continuous drone herding on behavioral response and spatial distribution of grazing cattle

Robotic herding is expected to become a new technology for the management of grazing animals. We investigated the behavioral responses of cows to drone herding on consecutive days and the potential of this technology to manipulate grazing distribution in a pasture. A herd of ∼30 cows was stocked in a 1.1-ha pasture for 5 consecutive days each month from May to October 2022. The cows were herded using a drone for 10 days during the grazing period in August (days 1–5) and September (days 6–10). The pasture was divided into nine plots, with two and three plots assigned as the ‘herding area’ in August and September, respectively. When the cows were grazing in the herding area, the operator maneuvered the drone to move the animals out of the area. The drone first approached at an altitude of 10 m; if the cows did not move away, the altitude was gradually lowered to 3 m. The behavioral responses to the drone, success or failure of herding (whether the cows left the area or not), and drone altitude were classified based on videos recorded during herding. The behavior and location of the cows in the pasture were observed during this period. The utilization rates of the plots (percentage of grazing time) were calculated to evaluate the effects of herding and the number of herding days. The cows responded in 59% and 46% of the cases on days 1 and 2, respectively. Startle behavior was recorded in 23% of the responses on day 1. Herding was successful in 51–75% of the cases on days 1–3. However, these percentages decreased thereafter. The utilization rate of the herding area on day 1 was approximately half that on days without herding. It increased from day 2, and almost no effect on grazing distribution was observed on or after day 3. These findings suggest that the cows exhibited little fear of drones after 1-day herding, and responses to the drones decreased as the animals subsequently became habituated to frequently repeated stimuli. Even after a 24-day interval, responsiveness to drone herding barely recovered and then declined. Therefore, drone herding was hardly effective in manipulating grazing distribution. Further investigation of stimulation that persistently elicits desirable responses is needed for future applications in technologies for the autonomous control of animal movement.

A modelled analysis of the impact of COVID-19-related disruptions to HPV vaccination.

COVID-19 disrupted school attendance in many countries, delaying routine adolescent vaccination against human papillomavirus (HPV) in some settings. We used Policy1-Cervix, a dynamic model simulating HPV transmission, natural history, vaccination, cervical screening, and diagnosis of HPV-related cancers, to estimate the impact on HPV-related cancers from disruptions to HPV vaccination in a high-income setting. A baseline scenario of no disruption to HPV vaccination was modelled, which assumed uptake of the nonavalent vaccine at the age of 12 by 82.4% of females and 75.5% of males, as is the coverage in Australia. Additional lifetime HPV-related cancer cases were calculated for three disruption scenarios affecting one birth cohort (2008; aged 12 in 2020) compared to the baseline scenario: (1) 1-year delay (no doses missed); (2) 1- to 7-year delay (slow catch-up); (3) no catch-up (herd effects only). A fourth scenario assumed no catch-up HPV vaccination for two birth cohorts, that is all individuals born in 2008 and in 2009 missed vaccination (worst-case scenario). Compared to 1532 HPV-related cancer cases estimated for the baseline no disruption scenario, we found a 1-year delay could result in ≤0.3% more HPV-related cancers (n = 4) but the increase would be greater if catch-up was slower (5%; n = 70), and especially if there was no catch-up (49%; n = 750). Additional cancers for a single missed cohort were most commonly cervical (23% of the additional cases) and anal cancers (16%) in females and oropharyngeal cancers in males (20%). In the worst-case scenario of two birth cohorts missing vaccination, ≤62% more HPV-related cancers would be diagnosed (n = 1892). In conclusion, providing catch-up of missed HPV vaccines is conducted, short-term delays in vaccinating adolescents are unlikely to have substantial long-term effects on cancer.