Herd-level Test Research Articles

Estimation of diagnostic sensitivity and specificity of abattoir registrations and bulk tank milk ELISA as herd-level tests for Fasciola hepatica using Bayesian latent class modelling

The common liver fluke, Fasciola hepatica, is a trematode parasite found worldwide, typically with a focal distribution due to its requirement for suitable climatic and environmental conditions to complete its lifecycle. Bovine fasciolosis causes suboptimal production and economic losses, including liver condemnation at slaughter. The lack of reliable diagnostic methods is a disadvantage to the increasing demand for surveillance and control. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of bulk tank milk (BTM) antibody testing and aggregated abattoir registrations (AAR) of liver fluke as herd-level tests for F. hepatica infection using Bayesian latent class models. Data from the abattoirs in 2019–2021 and BTM, sampled in the winter of 2020/2021, were collected from 437 herds on the southwest coast of Norway. The BTM samples were analysed with the SVANOVIR® F. hepatica-Ab ELISA test, with results given as an optical density ratio (ODR), and later dichotomized using the recommended cut-off value from the test manufacturer (ODR ≥0.3). Based on the BTM ELISA test, 47.8% of the herds tested positive. The AAR test was defined as the herd-level proportion of female slaughtered animals registered with liver fluke infection during the study period. For this test, three cut-offs were used (a proportion of 0.05, 0.1 and 0.2). The herds were split into two subpopulations (“Coastal” and “Inland”), which were expected to differ in true prevalence of F. hepatica infection based on climate-related and geographical factors. The diagnostic accuracies of both tests were estimated using Bayesian latent class models with minimally informative priors. Post-hoc analysis revealed that the maximum sum of sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of the tests was achieved with a herd-level proportion of ≥0.1 registered with liver fluke as the AAR test. Using this cut-off, the median estimate for the diagnostic accuracy of the BTM ELISA was 90.4% (84.0–96.2 95% Posterior Credible Interval (PCI)) for Se and 95.3% (90.6–100% PCI) for Sp, while the median estimate of Se for AAR was 87.5% (81.4–93.1% PCI) and the median estimate of Sp for AAR was 91.0% (85.2–96.5% PCI). The cut-off evaluation of the SVANOVIR® F. hepatica-Ab ELISA test for BTM confirmed the manufacturer's recommended cut-off of ODR ≥0.3 to denote positive and negative herds. This study suggests that AAR and BTM ELISA test can be used as herd-level tools to monitor liver fluke infection, so that appropriate interventions against infection can be implemented as necessary.

Output-based assessment of herd-level freedom from infection in endemic situations: Application of a Bayesian Hidden Markov model

Countries have implemented control programmes (CPs) for cattle diseases such as bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDV) that are tailored to each country-specific situation. Practical methods are needed to assess the output of these CPs in terms of the confidence of freedom from infection that is achieved. As part of the STOC free project, a Bayesian Hidden Markov model was developed, called STOC free model, to estimate the probability of infection at herd-level. In the current study, the STOC free model was applied to BVDV field data in four study regions, from CPs based on ear notch samples. The aim of this study was to estimate the probability of herd-level freedom from BVDV in regions that are not (yet) free. We additionally evaluated the sensitivity of the parameter estimates and predicted probabilities of freedom to the prior distributions for the different model parameters. First, default priors were used in the model to enable comparison of model outputs between study regions. Thereafter, country-specific priors based on expert opinion or historical data were used in the model, to study the influence of the priors on the results and to obtain country-specific estimates.The STOC free model calculates a posterior value for the model parameters (e.g. herd-level test sensitivity and specificity, probability of introduction of infection) and a predicted probability of infection. The probability of freedom from infection was computed as one minus the probability of infection. For dairy herds that were considered free from infection within their own CP, the predicted probabilities of freedom were very high for all study regions ranging from 0.98 to 1.00, regardless of the use of default or country-specific priors. The priors did have more influence on two of the model parameters, herd-level sensitivity and the probability of remaining infected, due to the low prevalence and incidence of BVDV in the study regions. The advantage of STOC free model compared to scenario tree modelling, the reference method, is that actual data from the CP can be used and estimates are easily updated when new data becomes available.

Characteristics (sensitivity and specificity) of herd-level diagnostic tests for Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis in cattle — A systematic review

Diagnostic tests for Johne’s disease in cattle are characterised by poor sensitivity and often imperfect specificity at the animal level. Because farmers and veterinarians have limited assurance or confidence from results of testing individual animals for Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP), control programmes based on whole herd-level testing provide the best framework for classifying herds. At the herd level, there is a diverse range of testing options for MAP based on both direct and indirect testing of individual and pooled samples. The most common measures of herd test performance, herd sensitivity (HSe) and herd specificity (HSp), are important for decision-making in herd test selection, for estimating prevalence and as inputs for simulation studies. This systematic review investigated the results of herd test evaluations for MAP in cattle, through a comprehensive search of the literature and a systematic four-stage screening process to identify relevant publications.Forty-six publications with relevant results were eligible for inclusion in the final review, containing evaluations of whole-herd ELISA serological testing, bulk milk tank ELISA, culture, PCR and phage testing, pooled faecal testing and environmental sample testing. Data extracted from each publication included sample populations, methods of analysis, reference tests, cut-off points, HSe and HSp. Direct comparisons between the reported HSe and HSp estimates of different studies is challenging due to the variations in herd prevalence and test protocols used. The data in this systematic review will benefit decision-makers and researchers and highlights knowledge gaps requiring further research.

Identification of different attitudes towards paratuberculosis control using cluster analysis applied on data from an anonymous survey among German cattle farmers

BackgroundParatuberculosis is a common disease in ruminants, causing economic losses in livestock farming, and a relationship between the exposure to its causative agent Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis, and Crohn’s disease in humans is discussed. Despite this, only a minority of cattle farmers have enroled in voluntary control programmes in most countries. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating the farmer’s opinion on paratuberculosis and their motivations to participate in a control programme. The objective was to identify different groups among farmers regarding their motivation and thereby contribute to a better understanding of farmers’ attitudes towards paratuberculosis control.ResultsTwo hundred twenty-five farmers responded to questionnaires that were distributed among cattle farmers in Saxony and Thuringia, federal states of Germany, together with boot-swab sampling sets for a free and anonymous herd-level paratuberculosis test. Among them, dairy herds and large herds were overrepresented. A hierarchical cluster analysis of the farmers’ answers resulted in four groups that we tagged as ‘informed sceptics’, ‘deniers’, ‘affected supporters’ and ‘free supporters’. In all groups, the majority considered paratuberculosis a threat to the public image of cattle farmers. Nearly all participants wanted to know the paratuberculosis herd status of purchased cattle. In contrast to the supporters, the informed sceptics and the deniers did not consider paratuberculosis a dangerous epizootic disease and would not welcome a mandatory control programme. The deniers and the affected supporters, but not the informed sceptics and the free supporters, assumed that their herd is affected by paratuberculosis. Unlike the deniers, all other groups would enrol in a control programme if the pathogen would have been found in their herd. Protecting future profitability and improving animal health were the two most important motivations to control paratuberculosis in all groups followed by aspects related to the marketing of breeding cattle. Most frequently, the costs and the assumed inaccuracy of diagnostics tests were mentioned as obstacles that hamper programme enrolment.ConclusionsSignificantly different attitudes of farmers regarding paratuberculosis control were identified. Therefore, tailored rather than uniform communication strategies are required to enhance participation in voluntary paratuberculosis control programmes.

Using machine learning improves predictions of herd-level bovine tuberculosis breakdowns in Great Britain

In the United Kingdom, despite decades of control efforts, bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has not been controlled and currently costs ~ £100 m annually. Critical in the failure of control efforts has been the lack of a sufficiently sensitive diagnostic test. Here we use machine learning (ML) to predict herd-level bTB breakdowns in Great Britain (GB) with the aim of improving herd-level diagnostic sensitivity. The results of routinely-collected herd-level tests were correlated with risk factor data. Four ML methods were independently trained with data from 2012–2014 including ~ 4700 positive herd-level test results annually. The best model’s performance was compared to the observed sensitivity and specificity of the herd-level test calculated on the 2015 data resulting in an increased herd-level sensitivity from 61.3 to 67.6% (95% confidence interval (CI): 66.4–68.8%) and herd-level specificity from 90.5 to 92.3% (95% CI: 91.6–93.1%). This approach can improve predictive capability for herd-level bTB and support disease control.

Evaluation of bulk tank milk PCR and bulk tank milk modified ELISA tests for the detection of paratuberculosis at the herd level in goat and sheep dairies in Ontario, Canada

Early identification of dairy goat herds and dairy sheep flocks infected with Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis is important for controlling this infection and minimizing economic losses. The objective of this study was to evaluate 2 bulk tank milk (BTM) paratuberculosis tests (PCR and modified ELISA) as potential herd-level tests. These tests were compared with the results obtained from testing 20 randomly selected lactating animals per farm (>2 yr) with an individual animal test (fecal culture, fecal PCR, serum ELISA, and milk ELISA). The study was conducted using 29 dairy goat herds and 21 dairy sheep flocks in Ontario, Canada, visited between October 2010 and August 2011. The sensitivity of the BTM PCR was poor in both the dairy goat herds (0.0%) and dairy sheep flocks (25.0%), but exhibited 100% specificity in both species. In comparison, the BTM modified ELISA demonstrated higher sensitivity. In goats, sensitivity ranged from 33.3 to 34.8% when fecal culture and PCR were the reference tests, respectively (specificities were both 100%), and 71.4 to 87.5% when the milk and serum ELISA, respectively, were the reference tests (specificities were 86.4 and 95.2%). The BTM modified ELISA in dairy sheep demonstrated comparable sensitivities, but lower specificities. When fecal culture and PCR were the reference test, sensitivities were 50.0 and 46.7%, respectively (specificities were 77.8 and 83.3%). The sensitivities when the milk and serum ELISA were the reference tests were 87.5 and 72.7%, respectively (specificities were 92.3 and 100%). Fecal PCR was the only individual animal test to identify significantly more farms as positive than the BTM PCR and modified ELISA test in both species. Therefore, whereas the BTM modified ELISA may provide an organization or control program with a high level of confidence that a BTM-positive farm is actually positive (high positive predictive value), if a producer wishes to increase the odds that a positive farm will test positive, so as not to miss an infection, then sampling and testing 20 animals with fecal PCR will better meet that objective.

Strategies for screening young stock for antibodies \u2013 optimising numbers to test, cut-points, & predictive values for bovine viral diarrhoea virus

The antibody seroprevalence of young stock can be a useful indicator of recent or current infection in a herd. We examine the factors that contribute to the assessment of herd exposure to disease, via spot testing for antibody, using bovine viral diarrhoea virus (BVDv) as an example. A statistical distribution of seroprevalences for BVDv in beef herds identified three groups of herds: low, intermediate and high within-herd BVDv antibody seroprevalence. We tested two assumptions –the intermediate seroprevalence group of herds is assumed to be negative for BVDv at the herd level and alternatively if this group is assumed to be positive. We found that: The herd-level sensitivity and specificity are sensitive to the assumption regarding the herds with intermediate seroprevalence. If an appropriate cut-point is chosen, reducing the sample size from ten to five does not produce a large drop in herd-level test performance. Increasing the cut-point may be valuable at the outset of an eradication programme. Increasing the sample size and decreasing the cut-point is advantageous towards the end of an eradication programme, to minimise the risk of positive herds being misclassified. The framework presented here illustrates how seroprevalence screening may be understood and assessed.

Approaching energy-related metabolic disease in dairy herds

Energy-related metabolic disease is considered relatively common in UK dairy herds, and has significant implication for cattle health, fertility and productivity. Diagnosing a herd metabolic issue is often not straightforward, however, and there is a significant risk of both classifying herds with acceptable incidence as having a problem and missing other herds which are currently experiencing issues. Correct application of herd-level diagnostic testing is extremely important in helping to determine herd status, but is often not robustly applied in practice. This article discusses some of the challenges in assessing energy-related metabolic disease, and briefly provides an overview of key intervention areas in cattle nutrition and management.

Johne's disease: reliability of environmental sampling to characterize Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP) infection in beef cow-calf herds.

Environmental samples are considered to be a cost-effective method of identifying Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP)-positive dairy herds, but evidence for beef cow-calf herds is weak. This study aims at evaluating this approach in a total of 20 German herds that were characterized by individual faecal samples (n = 2545) of all cows. For 14 MAP-positive herds having at least one MAP-positive animal, the within-herd prevalence was calculated from concurrent individual faecal culture-based testing. Six herds certified as 'MAP free' based on the negative results of previous years served as MAP-negative controls. On average, six environmental samples were taken at the end of winter from areas with high cow traffic and tested for MAP by faecal culture. According to the environmental samples, nine (64·3%) out of the 14 MAP-positive cow-calf herds were infected. The percentage of positive environmental samples and the apparent within-herd prevalence (Spearman's P = 0·73, P < 0·001) as well as the herd-level test results (positive and negative) and the herd's status based on individual testing (Fisher's exact test, P = 0·014) showed a positive association. Considering limitations in low-prevalence herds, MAP-positive beef cow-calf herds are detectable by environmental samples in temperate climate zones.

Herd-level seroprevalence of Neospora caninum infection in dairy cattle in central and northeastern Poland.

A serosurvey was carried out to estimate the herd-level seroprevalence of Neospora caninum infection in cattle in central and northeastern Poland. Ninety seven dairy cattle herds from 2 provinces of Poland (Podlaskie, 47 herds and Łodzkie, 50 herds) were randomly enrolled in the study using two-stage cluster method. A simple random selection was applied within each herd to select a sample of adult cows (≥18 month-old). A total number of 734 cows were enrolled in the study. The animals were screened with a commercial competitive ELISA (Bio-X Diagnostics, Belgium). To calculate true herd-level seroprevalence test sensitivity and specificity were adjusted from an individual- to a herd-level using FreeCalc method. The true overall herd-level seroprevalence of N. caninum infection was 56.7% (95% CI: 47.5%, 65.9%). The true herd-level seroprevalence in Podlaskie was 63.3% (95% CI: 43.0%, 83.6%) and 50.5% (95% CI: 32.8%, 68.2%) in Łodzkie province and these figures did not differ significantly between the two provinces (chi2 test p = 0.238). One hundred forty three of 734 cows (19.5%) were seropositive which gave the true overall individual-level seroprevalence of 20.1% (95% CI: 17.4%, 23.2%). Percentage of seropositive cows in each herd varied from 6% to 80%. This study is the first epidemiological investigation of herd-level seroprevalence of N. caninum infection in Polish dairy cattle population. In conclusion, the result of the study confirmed previous data that N. caninum infection is widespread in the Polish cattle population and thus should be considered as a potential cause of spontaneous abortions.

Caprine arthritis encephalitis and caseous lymphadenitis in goats: use of bulk tank milk ELISAs for herd-level surveillance

The objective of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of two ELISA tests applied to bulk tank milk (BTM) as the first part of a two-step test scheme...

Control of Bovine Brucellosis from Persistently Infected Holdings Using RB51 Vaccination with Test-and-Slaughter: A Comparative Case Report from a High Incidence Area in Portugal.

Bovine brucellosis due to Brucella abortus infection causes significant reproductive and production losses in cattle and is a major zoonosis. Eradication of this disease has proved difficult to achieve in Portugal where it still occurs in some regions despite an ongoing national eradication programme. In 2004, the Alentejo region, a major cattle producing area, reported one of the highest levels of bovine brucellosis in the country, especially in one divisional area. In that area, bovine brucellosis was particularly problematic in a holding of ten herds, the largest extensive cattle unit in the country, which remained infected despite an extensive test-and-slaughter programme and depopulation of five herds. A 5-year programme of RB51 vaccination with biannual test-and-slaughter was thus implemented in 2004. The apparent animal seroprevalence decreased from 19% (646/3,400) to 3% (88/2930) on the third herd-level test and remained below 0.8% (27/3324) after the fourth test. After the tenth test, the holding had a prevalence of 0.1% (2/2332) and only one herd remained positive with a within-herd prevalence of 1.1% (2/177). The results were compared to all other herds (n = 10) in the divisional area that were also persistently infected but were subject only to test-and-slaughter before being depopulated. In these herds, the strategy of test-and-slaughter did not reduce the prevalence, which remained significantly higher than the vaccinated group (median = 0.48% and 8.5% in vaccinated versus non-vaccinated herds; Wilcoxon rank sum test; P < 0.01). The success of this pilot programme in continental Portugal provided a valuable case study to the official veterinary services by illustrating the value of RB51 vaccination with parallel testing and improved biosecurity as a comprehensive and sustainable strategy for bovine brucellosis control in persistently infected herds.

Evaluating Escherichia coli O157 Control in Finnish Primary Production

Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) has become a threat in the modern cattle sector because of its adverse impact on human health. Systems have been developed to reduce the risk of EHEC infection associated with the beef production chain. In Finland, the risk management of EHEC is mainly targeted at primary production, which is controlled by a national program. The prevalence of E. coli O157 in slaughter animals and herds appears to have remained relatively low over the years (0.2 to 1.2% and 0.3 to 1.5%, respectively). The effectiveness of the Finnish EHEC control program (FECP) was analyzed with a Bayesian statistical model based on the results from 2006 through 2010. According to the model, the estimated true prevalence of EHEC in slaughter animals was at its highest in 2007 (95% credible interval [CI], 0.94 to 1.85% of animals), and the estimated true prevalence in herds was its highest in 2007 (95% CI, 1.28 to 2.55% of herds). However, the estimated probability of the FECP detecting an EHEC-positive slaughter animal or herd was 0.52 to 0.58% and 4.74 to 6.49%, respectively. The inability to detect EHEC-positive animals was partly due to animal-based random sampling, which ignores herd-level testing and therefore emphasizes the testing of slaughter animals from herds that send more animals to slaughter. Some slaughterhouses collected samples incorrectly as a consequence of an incorrectly implemented FECP. Farmers may also have questionable reasons for choosing to send animals to be slaughtered in small abattoirs, in which testing is less likely, to avoid suspicion of EHEC or other zoonotic infections.

Evaluation of milk ELISA fordetection of Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis indairy herds and association with within-herd prevalence

Cow-level milk ELISA results can be used to determine herd Mycobacterium avium ssp. paratuberculosis (MAP) status. Milk sample collection is minimally invasive and ELISA results can be obtained quickly and economically. The objectives were to evaluate the herd-level test characteristics of 3 commercial milk ELISA, and to determine the impact of within-herd MAP prevalence on the performance of the milk ELISA herd test. A total of 32 purposively selected herds with a median herd size of 66 milking cows were used in this 2-yr project. Fecal and milk samples were collected from all milking cows at 6-mo intervals. Fecal samples were pooled by cow age, with 5 cow samples per pool; individual fecal culture was completed on cow samples from positive pools. Herd MAP status was defined as MAP positive if, at any point during the longitudinal study, a pooled fecal culture from the herd was positive. Milk samples were analyzed using each of 3 commercial milk ELISA kits; a cow-level result from each ELISA was classified as positive following the respective manufacturer’s recommended threshold for a positive result. Herd-level milk ELISA test characteristics were estimated using generalized estimating equations logistic models, which accounted for repeated measurements. Using a cutoff of 2% milk ELISA-positive cows, milk ELISA herd sensitivity relative to a herd MAP status based on all pooled fecal culture results collected during the study was as follows: ELISA A: 59% [95% confidence interval (CI): 36–78%), ELISA B: 56% (95% CI: 32–77%), and ELISA C: 63% (95% CI: 41–81%). Herd specificity for ELISA A, B, and C was 80% (95% CI: 71–88%), 96% (95% CI: 89–98%), and 92% (95% CI: 86–96%), respectively. The remainder of the analyses focused on results from ELISA B. Herd sensitivity of ELISA B increased as MAP prevalence increased. In herds with a mean MAP prevalence ≤5%, the herd sensitivity of the milk ELISA was low, ranging from 11% when MAP prevalence was 1%, to 62% when MAP prevalence was 5%. Categorical likelihood ratios based on milk ELISA within-herd prevalence predicted that herds with milk ELISA prevalence above 0 but <2% had a similar likelihood to be MAP positive or MAP negative, whereas herds with a milk ELISA prevalence between 2 and 4% were 3.7 times more likely to be MAP positive than MAP negative. All herds with a milk ELISA prevalence >4% were MAP positive. Although milk ELISA B worked well to establish herd MAP status in high-prevalence herds, interpretation was unreliable in MAP-negative and low-prevalence herds.

Age-dependent patterns of bovine tuberculosis in cattle

Bovine tuberculosis (BTB) is an important livestock disease, seriously impacting cattle industries in both industrialised and pre-industrialised countries. Like TB in other mammals, infection is life long and, if undiagnosed, may progress to disease years after exposure. The risk of disease in humans is highly age-dependent, however in cattle, age-dependent risks have yet to be quantified, largely due to insufficient data and limited diagnostics. Here, we estimate age-specific reactor rates in Great Britain by combining herd-level testing data with spatial movement data from the Cattle Tracing System (CTS). Using a catalytic model, we find strong age dependencies in infection risk and that the probability of detecting infection increases with age. Between 2004 and 2009, infection incidence in cattle fluctuated around 1%. Age-specific incidence increased monotonically until 24–36 months, with cattle aged between 12 and 36 months experiencing the highest rates of infection. Beef and dairy cattle under 24 months experienced similar infection risks, however major differences occurred in older ages. The average reproductive number in cattle was greater than 1 for the years 2004–2009. These methods reveal a consistent pattern of BTB rates with age, across different population structures and testing patterns. The results provide practical insights into BTB epidemiology and control, suggesting that targeting a mass control programme at cattle between 12 and 36 months could be beneficial.

Estimating the Hidden Burden of Bovine Tuberculosis in Great Britain

The number of cattle herds placed under movement restrictions in Great Britain (GB) due to the suspected presence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) has progressively increased over the past 25 years despite an intensive and costly test-and-slaughter control program. Around 38% of herds that clear movement restrictions experience a recurrent incident (breakdown) within 24 months, suggesting that infection may be persisting within herds. Reactivity to tuberculin, the basis of diagnostic testing, is dependent on the time from infection. Thus, testing efficiency varies between outbreaks, depending on weight of transmission and cannot be directly estimated. In this paper, we use Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to parameterize two within-herd transmission models within a rigorous inferential framework. Previous within-herd models of bTB have relied on ad-hoc methods of parameterization and used a single model structure (SORI) where animals are assumed to become detectable by testing before they become infectious. We study such a conventional within-herd model of bTB and an alternative model, motivated by recent animal challenge studies, where there is no period of epidemiological latency before animals become infectious (SOR). Under both models we estimate that cattle-to-cattle transmission rates are non-linearly density dependent. The basic reproductive ratio for our conventional within-herd model, estimated for scenarios with no statutory controls, increases from 1.5 (0.26–4.9; 95% CI) in a herd of 30 cattle up to 4.9 (0.99–14.0) in a herd of 400. Under this model we estimate that 50% (33–67) of recurrent breakdowns in Britain can be attributed to infection missed by tuberculin testing. However this figure falls to 24% (11–42) of recurrent breakdowns under our alternative model. Under both models the estimated extrinsic force of infection increases with the burden of missed infection. Hence, improved herd-level testing is unlikely to reduce recurrence unless this extrinsic infectious pressure is simultaneously addressed.

Evaluation of two herd-level diagnostic tests for Streptococcus agalactiae using a latent class approach

Streptococcus agalactiae mastitis persists as a significant economic problem for the dairy industry in many countries. In Denmark, the annual surveillance programme for this mastitis pathogen initially based only on bacteriological culture of bulk tank milk (BTM) samples, has recently incorporated the use of the real-time PathoProof Mastitis PCR assay with the goal of improving detection of infected herds. The objective of our study was to estimate the herd sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp) of both tests of BTM samples using latent class models in a Bayesian analysis while evaluating the effect of herd-level covariates on the Se and Sp of the tests. BTM samples were collected from all 4258 Danish dairy herds in 2009 and screened for the presence of S. agalactiae using both tests.The highest Se of PCR was realized at a cycle threshold (Ct) cut-off value of 40. At this cut-off, the Se of the PCR was significantly higher (95.2; 95% posterior credibility interval [PCI] [88.2; 99.8]) than that of bacteriological culture (68.0; 95% PCI [55.1; 90.0]). However, culture had higher Sp (99.7; 95% PCI [99.3; 100.0]) compared to PCR (98.8; 95% PCI [97.2; 99.9]). The accuracy of the tests was unaffected by the herd-level covariates. We propose that screenings of BTM samples for S. agalactiae be based on the PCR assay with Ct readings of <40 considered as positive. However, for higher Ct values, confirmation of PCR test positive herds by bacteriological culture is advisable especially when the between-herd prevalence of S. agalactiae is low.

Meta-analysis of field studies on bovine tuberculosis skin tests in United States cattle herds

Our objective was to summarize information on the diagnostic accuracy, in terms of test sensitivity (Se) and specificity (Sp), for bovine tuberculosis (bTb) tuberculin skin tests as currently used in the United States. Meta-analyses including Se and Sp estimates from field studies of bTb tuberculin tests conducted in North American cattle were conducted to provide a distribution of estimates and central tendency for Se and Sp of the caudal fold tuberculin (CFT) and serial interpretation of the CFT and comparative cervical tuberculin (CFT-CCT) tests. In total, 12 estimates for CFT and CFT-CCT test Se and Sp were identified from seven publications matching inclusion criteria. Estimates for CFT test Se ranged from 80.4% to 93.0% and CFT test Sp from 89.2% to 95.2%. Estimates for CFT-CCT test Se ranged from 74.4% to 88.4% and CFT-CCT test Sp ranged from 97.3% to 98.6%. These distributions of test Se and Sp are intended to provide a more realistic representation for U.S. bTb skin tests than previously reported. Estimation and discussion of herd-level CFT and CFT-CCT test parameters is also included. These results should be considered at the herd and individual animal level when evaluating results from tuberculin skin test results in North American cattle herds.

From explanation to prediction: A model for recurrent bovine tuberculosis in Irish cattle herds

There is a good understanding of factors associated with bovine tuberculosis (BTB) risk in Irish herds. As yet, however, this knowledge has not been incorporated into predictive models with the potential for improved, risk-based surveillance. The goal of the study was to enhance the national herd scoring system for BTB risk, thus leading to improved identification of cattle herds at high risk of recurrent BTB episodes. A retrospective cohort study was conducted to develop a statistical model predictive of recurrent bovine tuberculosis episodes in cattle herds in the Republic of Ireland. Herd-level disease history data for the previous 12 years, the previous 3 years, the previous episode, and the current-episode were used in survival analyses to determine the aspects of disease history that were predictive of a recurrent breakdown within 3 years of a cleared BTB episode. Relative to herds with 0–1 standard reactors in the current BTB episode, hazard ratios increased to 1.3 and 1.6 for herds with 2–5 and >5 standard reactors, respectively. Compared to herds with <30 animals, hazard ratios increased from 1.8 to 2.5 and then to 3.1 for herds with 30–79, 80–173, and >174 animals respectively. Relative to herds with <4 herd-level tests in the previous 3 years, herds with 4–5 and >5 tests had 1.1 and 1.4 times greater hazard of a BTB breakdown. Herds that did not have a BTB episode in the 5 years prior to their 2001 episode were 0.8 times less likely to breakdown in the next 3 years than herds that did. Herds breaking down in the spring or summer were 0.8 times less likely to suffer a recurrent breakdown than herds breaking down in autumn or winter (this was likely due to seasonality in testing regimes). The presence of a confirmed BTB lesion was not predictive of increased risk of recurrent BTB. Despite the availability of detailed disease history, the predictive ability of the model was poor. One explanation for this was that herds suffering a recurrence of BTB on their first test after clearing a BTB episode were different from herds that broke down later in the period at risk. Future research might need to include additional variables to identify which subsets of herd BTB episodes, if any, have identifiable features that are predictive of recurrent breakdowns.

Prevalence of Yersinia enterocolitica shedding and bioserotype distribution in Ontario finisher pig herds in 2001, 2002, and 2004

We investigated characteristics of Yersinia enterocolitica infection in Ontario finisher pig herds. Our specific objectives were to estimate or test: prevalence of Y. enterocolitica shedding in finisher pigs, bioserotype distribution, agreement between the herd-level tests based on sampling pig and pooled fecal samples, whether bioserotypes cluster by farms, and whether Y. enterocolitica-positive herds cluster spatially. In total, 3747 fecal samples were collected from 100 farms over the years 2001, 2002, and 2004 (250 total herd visits). Fecal samples were tested by culture and positive isolates were biotyped and serotyped. Apparent pig-level prevalence of Y. enterocolitica was 1.8%, 3.2%, and 12.5% in 2001, 2002, and 2004, respectively. Estimated true pig-level prevalence of Y. enterocolitica was 5.1%, 9.1%, and 35.1% in 2001, 2002, and 2004, respectively. Herd-level prevalence was 16.3%, 17.9%, and 37.5% in 2001, 2002, and 2004, respectively. In all years, the most common bioserotype was 4, O:3, followed by bioserotype 2, O:5,27. Kappa between herd-level status based on pig and pooled samples ranged between 0.51 and 0.68 for biotype 1A and bioserotype 4, O:3, respectively. For 4, O:3, a significant bias in discordant pairs was detected, indicating that pig samples were more sensitive than pooled samples in declaring a herd as positive. Farms tended to be repeatedly positive with the same bioserotype, but positive study farms did not cluster spatially (suggesting lack of between herd transmission and lack of a common geographic risk factor).