Hedging Positions Research Articles

Measuring Exposure to Dependence Risk with Random Bernstein Copula Scenarios

This paper considers the problem of measuring the exposure to dependence risk carried by a portfolio with an arbitrary number of two-asset derivative contracts. We develop a worst-case risk measure computed over a set of dependence scenarios within a divergence restricted region. The set of dependence scenarios corresponds to Bernstein copulas obtained by simulating random doubly stochastic matrices. We then devise a method to compute hedging positions when a limited number of hedging instruments are available for trading. In an empirical study we show how the proposed method can be used to reveal an exposure to dependence risk where usual sensitivity methods fail to reveal it. We also illustrate the ability of the proposed method to generate parsimonious hedging strategies in order to reduce the exposure to dependence risk of a given portfolio.

Optimal hedge ratio in a biased forward market under liquidity constraints

The paper1 investigates corporate hedging behavior in a theoretical model focusing on two important influencing factors: liquidity constraints affecting the funding opportunity of the firm and the extent of available hedging position, and speculative motive of risk management based on a bias of forward market. The optimal hedge ratio is analyzed in the function of three determining factors of the corporate utility function: the risk aversion ratio of the firm, the expected value of the hedge position, and the financing costs due to the hedging itself. The large empirical evidence of corporate over- and underhedge can be better understood in the presented framework.

Does Uncertainty about a Closed-End Fund’s Holdings Lead to a Discount?

In a frictionless world, a closed-end fund’s (CEF’s) premium equals its price minus both its NAVPS (net asset value per share) and present value of the net benefits (PVNB) from liquidity enhancement, managerial abilities after costs, and leverage. The premium can differ further due to frictions resulting from uncertainties about a CEF’s PVNB and its holdings. Complete hedge positions between CEF prices and NAVPS are not possible since their concurrent daily directional changes are not perfectly integrated. We are able to explain over two-thirds of the variation in premiums or their changes for U.S. equity CEFs. As expected, the CEF premium is positively related to liquidity enhancement, CEF performance and net leverage, and negatively related to management fees, gross leverage, cash and bond holdings, and proxies for price equilibrating risks.

Cross‐Hedging Ambiguous Exchange Rate Risk

AbstractThis paper examines the behavior of an exporting firm that sells its output to two foreign countries, only one of which has futures and options available for its currency. The firm possesses smooth ambiguity preferences and faces multiple sources of ambiguous exchange rate risk. We show that the separation theorem fails to hold in that the firm's production and export decisions depend on the firm's attitude toward ambiguity and on the incident to the underlying ambiguity. Given that the random spot exchange rates are first‐order independent with respect to each plausible subjective distribution, we derive necessary and sufficient conditions under which the full‐hedging theorem applies to the firm's cross‐hedging decisions. When these conditions are violated, we show that the firm includes options in its optimal hedge position. This paper as such offers a rationale for the hedging role of options under smooth ambiguity preferences and cross‐hedging of ambiguous exchange rate risk. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 37:132–147, 2017

On the Choice between Two Delta-Hedging Strategies

This paper studies the choice between two popular hedging strategies by assuming that the hedge position (delta) follows a Markov chain with boundary conditions. We give the formula for long-run cost per unit time under two different cost structures: (I) a fixed transaction cost and (II) a non-fixed transaction cost. Then we consider the case where the hedge position follows a random walk; we show that (i) re-balancing delta to the initial position is always more cost-efficient than re-balancing it to the edge for a fixed transaction cost; (ii) under certain conditions, re-balancing delta to the initial position is less cost-efficient than re-balancing it to the edge for a non-fixed transaction cost. In addition, we quantify the magnitude of the efficiency in both cases.

Value of hedge and expected returns

ABSTRACTWe demonstrate how it is possible to generate value for an investor with a hedge attached to the buy-and-hold strategy of an S&P 500 index fund. We study the S&P 500 index portfolio (not including dividends) and the value-weighted S&P 500 index portfolio (including dividends) of the Center for Research in Securities Prices for 1967:01–2011:12, using the capacity utilization and the unemployment rates in real time to determine if a hedge position should be initiated or closed. A hedge is initiated if the capacity utilization, the unemployment rate or a combination of the two signals a contraction in the real economy. The hedge position is closed if it signals otherwise an expansion. We use utility gains (Campbell and Thompson 2008), the manipulation-proof performance measure (MPPM) statistics (Ingersoll et al. 2007) and the P-Sharpe ratio (Bailey and López de Prado 2012) to evaluate the performance of a particular hedge strategy. The empirical results show that there are infinitely many hedges that can generate positive utility gains, higher MPPM statistics and higher P-Sharpe ratios.

Value of Hedge and Expected Returns

We demonstrate how it is possible to generate value for an investor with a hedge attached to the buy-and-hold strategy of a S&P 500 index fund. We study the S&P 500 index portfolio (not including dividends) and the CRSP value weighted S&P 500 index portfolio (including dividends) for 1967:01-2011:12, using the capacity utilization and the unemployment rates in real time to determine if a hedge position should be initiated or closed. A hedge is initiated if the capacity utilization, the unemployment rate, or a combination of the two signals a contraction in the real economy. The hedge position is closed if it signals otherwise an expansion. We use utility gains (Campbell and Thompson, 2008), the MPPM statistic (Ingersoll et al., 2007) and the P-Sharpe ratio (Bailey and Lopez de Prado, 2012) to evaluate the performance of a particular hedge strategy. The empirical results show that there are infinitely many hedges that can generate positive utility gains, higher MPPM statistics, and higher P-Sharpe ratios.

Dynamic speculation and hedging in commodity futures markets with a stochastic convenience yield

The main objective of this paper is to address, in an a continuous-time framework, the issue of using storable commodity futures as vehicles for hedging purposes when, in particular, the convenience yield as well as the market prices of risk evolve randomly over time. Following the martingale route and by operating a suitable constant relative risk aversion utility function (CRRA) specific change of numéraire, we solve the investor's dynamic optimization program to obtain quasi analytical solutions for optimal demands, which can be expressed in terms of two discount bonds (traded and synthetic). Contrary to the existing literature, we explicitly derive the individual optimal proportions invested in the spot commodity, in a discount bond and in the futures contracts, which can be computed in a simple recursive way. We suggest various decompositions allowing an investor to assess the sensitivity of the optimal demands to the state variables and to specify the role played by each risky asset. Empirical evidence shows that the convenience yield has a strong impact on the speculation and hedging positions and the interaction among time-varying risk premia determines the magnitude and the sign of these positions.

Production and hedging decisions under regret aversion

In this paper, we investigate regret-averse firms' production and hedging behaviors. We first show that the separation theorem is still alive under regret aversion by proving that regret aversion is independent of the level of optimal production. On the other hand, we find that the full-hedging theorem does not always hold under regret aversion as the regret-averse firms take hedged positions different from those of risk-averse firms in some situations. With more regret aversion, regret-averse firms will hold smaller optimal hedging positions in an unbiased futures market. Furthermore, contrary to the conventional expectations, we show that banning firms from forward trading affects their production level in both directions.

Pricing and hedging Asian-style options on energy

We solve the problem of pricing and hedging Asian-style options on energy with a quadratic risk criterion when trading in the underlying future is restricted. Liquid trading in the future is only possible up to the start of a so-called delivery period. After the start of the delivery period, the hedge positions cannot be adjusted any more until maturity. This reflects the trading situation at the Nordic energy market Nord Pool, for example. We show that there exists a unique solution to this combined continuous–discrete quadratic hedging problem if the future price process is a special semimartingale with bounded mean–variance tradeoff. Additionally, under the assumption that the future price process is a local martingale, the hedge positions before the averaging period are inherited from the market specification without trading restriction. As an application, we consider three models and derive their quadratic hedge positions in explicit form: a simple Black–Scholes model with time-dependent volatility, the stochastic volatility model of Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard, and an exponential additive model. Based on an exponential spot price model driven by two NIG Levy processes, we determine an exponential additive model for the future price by moment matching techniques. We calculate hedge positions and determine the quadratic hedging error in a simulation study.

Managerial Hedging Under Self-Esteem

Motivated by psychological evidence that self-esteem plays an important role in individual decision-making, this paper studies how self-esteem concerns influence a manager's effort choice and hedging behavior and how a board designs the managerial compensation in response. We show that when the manager has stronger self-esteem concerns, it requires higher managerial ownership to induce effort. In equilibrium, the manager's net hedging position increases with the strength of the manager's self-esteem concerns. Each of managerial hedging and self-esteem concerns added to an otherwise standard agency model increases the equilibrium pay-performance sensitivity. The agency cost increases as the manager's self-esteem concerns become stronger, but the manager's access to hedging opportunities itself does not change the agency cost. We also discuss how our basic model can be extended to account for circumstances under which managerial hedging can affect firm value.

A predictive global sensitivity analysis approach to monitoring and modifying operational hedging positions

Managers around the world face increasing challenges of managing the supply chain network risks that span overseas locations. In addition to typical uncertainties such as stochastic demand that any firm faces, a global company must also contend with exchange rate risk. Operational hedging represents one of the techniques to manage this risk. Operational hedging is different from the traditional financial hedging that involves purchasing currency options. Operational hedging establishes excess capacity around the world and then shifts production to favourable countries as exchange rate fluctuations dictate. In this paper, predictive global sensitivity analysis is invoked to seek a set of operational rules that are simple enough for managers to conveniently analyse the effects of economic changes on the production levels of their plants. The rules enable managers to recommend production reallocation levels while remaining accurate enough to make sound decisions.

Optimal managerial hedging and contracting with self-esteem concerns

Motivated by psychological evidence that self-esteem plays an important role in individual decision-making, this paper studies how self-esteem concerns influence a manager's effort choice and hedging behavior and how a board designs the managerial compensation in response. We show that when the manager has stronger self-esteem concerns, it requires higher managerial ownership to induce effort. In equilibrium, the manager's net hedging position increases with the strength of the manager's self-esteem concerns. Each of managerial hedging and self-esteem concerns added to an otherwise standard agency model increases the equilibrium pay-performance sensitivity. The agency cost increases as the manager's self-esteem concerns become stronger, but the manager's access to hedging opportunities itself does not change the agency cost. We also discuss how our basic model can be extended to account for circumstances under which managerial hedging can affect firm value.

Production and Hedging Decisions under Regret Aversion

In this paper, we investigate the production and hedging decisions when the competitive firm is not only risk averse but also regret averse. Regret aversion is characterized by a utility function that includes dis-utility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We first show that regret aversion has no effect on the optimal production level. While the presence of regret aversion will always reduce the optimal hedging position. Besides, with more regret aversion, the optimal hedging position will become smaller.

O hedge faz sentido econômico para a American Airlines?

This study evaluates the impact of hedging in company value by analyzing how American Airline consolidated group’s market value is impacted by changes in the level of next year’s fuel needs hedged and total value of its outstanding agreements from 1989 to 2010. A descriptive and qualitative research methodology was used. Secondary data was collected for a case study.The results indicate that it makes economic sense to hedge fuel costs. However, investors have negatively valued increases in hedge positions.

On the strategic value of risk management

This article examines how firms facing volatile input prices and holding some degree of market power in their product market link their risk management and their production or pricing strategies. This issue is relevant in many industries ranging from manufacturing to energy retailing, where firms that are rendered “risk averse” by financial frictions decide on and commit to their hedging strategies before their product market strategies. We find that commitment to hedging modifies the pricing and production strategies of firms. This strategic effect is channeled through the risk-adjusted expected cost, i.e., the expected marginal cost under the probability measure induced by shareholders' “risk aversion”. It has opposite effects depending on the nature of product market competition: commitment to hedging toughens quantity competition while it softens price competition. Finally, not committing to the hedging position can never be an equilibrium outcome: committing is always a best response to non-committing. In the Hotelling model, committing is a dominant strategy for all firms.

Determining the effectiveness of optimal time-varying hedge ratios for cattle feeders under multiproduct and single commodity settings

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to determine and contrast the risk mitigating effectiveness from optimal multiproduct time-varying hedge ratios, applied to the margin of a cattle feedlot operation, over single commodity time-varying and naive hedge ratios. Design/methodology/approach – A parsimonious regime-switching dynamic correlations (RSDC) model is estimated in two-stages, where the dynamic correlations among prices of numerous commodities vary proportionally between two different regimes/levels. This property simplifies estimation methods for a large number of parameters involved. Findings – There is significant evidence that resulting simultaneous correlations among the prices (spot and futures) for each commodity attain different levels along the time-series. Second, for in and out-of-sample data there is a substantial reduction in the operation's margin variance provided from both multiproduct and single time-varying optimal hedge ratios over naive hedge ratios. Lastly, risk mitigation is attained at a lower cost given that average optimal multiproduct and single time-varying hedge ratios obtained for corn, feeder cattle and live cattle are significantly below the naive full hedge ratio. Research limitations/implications – The application studied is limited in that once a hedge position has been set at a particular period, it is not possible to modify or update at a subsequent period. Practical implications – Agricultural producers, specifically cattle feeders, may profit from a tool using improved techniques to determine hedge ratios by considering a larger amount of up-to-date information. Moreover, these agents may apply hedge ratios significantly lower than one and thus mitigate risk at lower costs. Originality/value – Feedlot operators will benefit from the potential implementation of this parsimonious RSDC model for their hedging operations, as it provides average optimal hedge ratios significantly lower than one and sizeable advantages in margin risk mitigation.

Exposure, hedging, and value: New evidence from the U.S. airline industry

For a variety of reasons, the U.S. airline industry is a natural sample to analyze the relation between corporate risk exposure, hedging policy, and firm value. First, we find that airline exposures to fuel prices are higher when fuel prices are high or when they are rising. Second, we analyze the relation between exposure coefficients and the percentage of next year's fuel requirement hedged by airlines. In response to higher fuel price levels, rising fuel prices, and higher levels of exposure to fuel prices, airlines tend to increase their hedging activity. Finally, we explore the previously documented jet fuel hedging premium illustrated in Carter, Rogers, and Simkins (2006). We find a positive hedging premium in our analysis; however, the interaction of hedging and exposure does not affect firm value. We conclude that airlines increasing hedging activity because of higher fuel price exposure are not valued higher compared to those airlines employing more stable hedging policies.

Inflation and interest rate derivatives for FX risk management: Implications for exporting firms under real wealth

Abstract Firms that export goods face risks such as product price, cost, and exchange rate risks. Price and cost risks can substantially reduce the FX hedging performance in real wealth. We thus investigate hedging strategies that are intended to improve the performance of the FX hedge in real terms using inflation and interest rate derivatives. The impact of these additional instruments is not clear and has only been briefly analyzed in the hedging literature so far. For this purpose, we derive variance-minimizing hedge positions of an exporting firm. A cointegrated VAR and bootstrap methods are used to evaluate the efficiencies of several hedging strategies. While inflation derivatives work better in the short run, interest rate derivatives perform better over longer hedge horizons.

Making mean-variance hedging implementable in a partially observable market

The mean-variance hedging (MVH) problem is studied in a partially observable market where the drift processes can only be inferred through the observation of asset or index processes. Although most of the literature treats the MVH problem by the duality method, here we study an equivalent system consisting of three BSDEs and try to provide more explicit expressions directly implementable by practitioners. Under the Bayesian and Kalman–Bucy frameworks, we find that a relevant BSDE can yield a semi-closed solution via a simple set of ODEs which allow quick numerical evaluation. This renders the remaining problems equivalent to solving European contingent claims under a new forward measure, and it is straightforward to obtain a forward looking non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation scheme. We also give a special example where the hedging position is available in a semi-closed form. For more generic set-ups, we provide explicit expressions of an approximate hedging portfolio by an asymptotic expansion. These analytic expressions not only allow the hedgers to update the hedging positions in real time but also make a direct analysis of the terminal distribution of the hedged portfolio feasible by standard Monte Carlo simulation.