Summer Heat Waves Research Articles

Identifying groups at-risk to extreme heat: Intersections of age, race/ethnicity, and socioeconomic status

Anthropogenic climate change has resulted in a significant rise in extreme heat events, exerting considerable but unequal impacts on morbidity and mortality. Numerous studies have identified inequities in heat exposure across different groups, but social identities have often been viewed in isolation from each other. Children (5 and under) and older adults (65 and older) also face elevated risks of heat-related health impacts. We employ an intersectional cross-classificatory approach to analyze the distribution of heat exposure between sociodemographic categories split into age groups in the contiguous US. We utilize high-resolution daily air temperature data to establish three census tract-level heat metrics (i.e., average summer temperature, heat waves, and heat island days). We pair those metrics with American Community Survey estimates on racial/ethnic, socioeconomic, and disability status by age to calculate population weighted mean exposures and absolute disparity metrics. Our findings indicate few substantive differences between age groups overall, but more substantial differences between sociodemographic categories within age groups, with children and older adults from socially marginalized backgrounds facing greater exposure than adults from similar backgrounds. When looking at sociodemographic differences by age, people of color of any age and older adults without health insurance emerge as the most exposed groups. This study identifies groups who are most exposed to extreme heat. Policy and program interventions aimed at reducing the impacts of heat should take these disparities in exposure into account to achieve health equity objectives.

Impact of Heatwaves and Declining NOx on Nocturnal Monoterpene Oxidation in the Urban Southeastern United States.

Nighttime oxidation of monoterpenes (MT) via the nitrate radical (NO3) and ozone (O3) contributes to the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA). This study uses observations in Atlanta, Georgia from 2011-2022 to quantify trends in nighttime production of NO3 (PNO3) and O3 concentrations and compare to model outputs from the EPA's Air QUAlity TimE Series Project (EQUATES). We present urban-suburban gradients in nighttime NO3 and O3 concentrations and quantify their fractional importance (F) for MT oxidation. Both observations and EQUATES show a decline in PNO3, with modeled PNO3 declining faster than observations. Despite decreasing PNO3, we find that NO3 continues to dominate nocturnal boundary layer (NBL) MT oxidation (FNO3 = 60%) in 2017, 2021, and 2022, which is consistent with EQUATES (FNO3 = 80%) from 2013-2019. This contrasts an anticipated decline in FNO3 based on prior observations in the nighttime residual layer, where O3 is the dominant oxidant. Using two case studies of heatwaves in summer 2022, we show that extreme heat events can increase NO3 concentrations and FNO3, leading to short MT lifetimes (<1 h) and high gas-phase organic nitrate production. Regardless of the presence of heatwaves, our findings suggest sustained organic nitrate aerosol formation in the urban SE US under declining NOx emissions, and highlight the need for improved representation of extreme heat events in chemistry-transport models and additional observations along urban to rural gradients.

Aerosol effects during heat waves in summer 2022 and responses to emission change over China

This study explores aerosol direct, indirect, and feedback effects on meteorology and fine particulate matter during heat waves of August 2022 over eastern China by using an online coupled regional climate–chemistry–aerosol model. In this period, aerosols exerted mean direct (DRE) and indirect (IRE) radiative effects of −3.9 Wm−2 and −2.4 Wm−2 at TOA, which totally caused a decrease in average surface air temperature by 0.3 °C over east China, accompanied by decreases in PBLH (planetary boundary layer height) and precipitation and an increase in PM2.5 concentration. With the anthropogenic emission reduction from 2013 to 2022, DRE apparently decreased while IRE changed little, leading to a decrease in total aerosol radiative effect (TRE) by 27% at TOA. The weakened TRE resulted in increases in surface air temperature and precipitation by 0.14 °C and 2.7 mm, respectively, on average over east China, with the maximum warming exceeding 0.5 °C in BTH (Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei province). This study highlights a warming trend due to weakened TRE, which may exacerbate heat wave, and an increasing importance of aerosol IRE relative to DRE due to weak sensitivity of cloud properties to aerosol change during the emission reduction.

Comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal patterns and trends of three types of summer heatwaves in China (1981–2020) using a biometeorological index

AbstractUnder global warming, heatwaves (HWs) are exerting increasing impacts on human life. In order to explore the thermal sensation of HWs under the combined influence of air temperature, humidity, radiation and wind speed, this study utilized the hourly Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) data from the ECMWF Reanalysis v5 (ERA5) to define daytime, night‐time and compound HWs, and then comparatively analysed their occurrences in China during 1981–2020. Results revealed that daytime HWs affect the majority of regions in China with the exception of the Tibetan Plateau, while both night‐time and compound HWs mainly strike the Yangtze River Basin and the Guangdong–Guangxi region in southeastern China. Additionally, it is noteworthy that a substantial portion of regions experiencing night‐time HWs also encounter compound HWs. The frequency and intensity of all three types of HWs show increasing trends generally in regions where HWs occur. The spatial coverage of HWs grows at rates of 8.05%/10a, 2.11%/10a and 1.62%/10a for the daytime, night‐time and compound types, respectively. For each summer month, the spatial coverage of daytime HWs notably surpasses that of night‐time and compound HWs. Further classifying HWs with intensity, it is found that the spatial coverage of both moderate and severe HW events exhibits discernible rising trends across all three types of HWs. Furthermore, regions with higher HW frequencies are more likely to experience severe HWs as well as record‐breaking ones. Additionally, the spatial coverage of daytime, night‐time and compound record‐breaking HWs is expanding.

Influence of extreme 2022 heatwave on megacities' anthropogenic CO2 emissions in lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River

An unprecedented heatwave hit the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) in August 2022. We analyzed changes of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in 8 megacities over lower-middle reaches of the YRB, using a near-real-time gridded daily CO2 emissions dataset. We suggest that the predominant sources of CO2 emissions in these 8 megacities are from the power and industrial sectors. In comparison to the average emissions for August in 2020 and 2021, the heatwave event led to a total increase in power sector emissions of approximately 2.70 Mt CO2, potentially due to the increase in urban cooling demand. Suzhou experienced the largest increase, with a rise of 1.12 Mt CO2 (12.88 %). Importantly, we observed that changes in daily power emissions exhibited strong linear relationships with temperatures during the heatwave, albeit varying sensitivities across different megacities (with an average of 0.0076 ± 0.0075 Mt d−1 °C−1). Conversely, we find that industrial emissions decreased by a total of 8.45 Mt CO2, with Shanghai seeing the largest decrease of 4.71 Mt CO2, while Hangzhou experienced the largest relative decrease (−21.22 %). It is noteworthy that the majority of megacities rebounded in industrial emissions following the conclusion of the heatwave. We convincingly suggest a tight linkage between the reductions in industrial emissions and China's policy to ensure household power supply. Overall, the reduction in industrial emissions offset the increase in power sector emissions, resulting in weaker emissions for majority of megacities during the heatwave. Despite remaining uncertainties in the emissions data, our study may offer valuable insights into the complexities of anthropogenic CO2 emissions in megacities amidst frequent summer heatwaves intensified by greenhouse warming.

Influences on North‐Atlantic summer climate from the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation

AbstractSeasonal‐range predictability of summer climate in northwestern Europe is generally considered to be low. This is an increasing issue given the worsening impact of summer heatwaves, droughts and intense convective rainfall in a rapidly changing climate. In wintertime, predictive skill in the region is derived from a variety of sources, not least teleconnections with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Summer ENSO teleconnections, however, are often considered to be negligible. In this paper, we revisit the topic of summer teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic‐European region. We build on previous work identifying upper tropospheric responses to tropical forcing, since dynamical teleconnections are most apparent at this level. Our results confirm that significantly increased geopotential heights are found stretching over the North‐Atlantic region and into western Europe when La Niña conditions are prevalent during summer. This pattern is part of the previously identified ‘circumglobal’ pattern of wider northern‐hemisphere height changes. We then look for these responses in a range of climate models used in operational seasonal prediction. While parts of the circumglobal pattern are weakly present, none of them produce the response seen over the North Atlantic, even when the effect of sampling on the observed teleconnection is accounted for. We additionally estimate the contribution of the previous (wintertime) phase of ENSO on the following summer. We find a significant delayed response, particularly in heights, to the earlier phase. The combination of the delayed and current responses gives height anomalies that are larger, on average, when ENSO changes phase from winter to summer. Finally, we show that a modest level of regional prediction skill from ENSO does exist. There is a contribution to skill in heights from the previous ENSO phase, but the equivalent contribution to the skill of zonal winds is smaller.

Trees in cooler regions are more vulnerable to thermal stress: Evidence from temperate poplar plantations in Northern China during the 2022 heatwaves

Climate change is resulting in more intense and frequent heatwaves, posing a potential threat to the structure and function of forest biome. However, due to the lack of in-situ data, the responses of forest plantations to heatwaves and the role of growth environments and management practices in mitigating these effects remain poorly understood. To address these knowledge gaps, we took advantage of the 2022 summer heatwave to assess their impacts on 8-year-old poplar plantations in Northern China characterized by differing thermal environments (cooler vs. warmer). Stem daily radial increment and sap flow density were continuously monitored in two regions. Additionally, physiological traits, such as leaf gas exchange and water potential, were measured in the warmer region with two different irrigation treatments. Our results revealed that poplar trees in the cooler region experienced more pronounced negative effects from heatwaves compared to those in the warmer region. Poplar trees exhibited strong physiological plasticity to cope with heatwave stress, with increased sap flow density observed in both regions during heatwaves, facilitating a transpiration-cooling effect for minimizing thermal damage. However, increased transpiration rate also led to stored stem water depletion and higher tree water deficit. The ability of trees to regulate internal water balance, likely dependent on their root water supply capacity, accounted for the different responses of poplar growth to heatwaves in various regions. Unexpectedly, while irrigation assisted the functioning of poplar trees in some aspects, it did not alter their overall growth and physiological performance under heatwave conditions, possibly due to their deep root systems. Overall, growth environment temperatures and physiological plasticity are crucial factors affecting the ability to withstand thermal stress, and these variations will allow trees to persist in fluctuating environments. Our findings offer valuable insights for sustainable forest management under extreme climate conditions.

Effects of heat waves on ozone pollution in a coastal industrial city: Meteorological impacts and photochemical mechanisms

Surface ozone (O3) pollution triggered by extreme weather conditions is attracting increasing attention. Heat waves in summer of 2022 were chosen to explore the photochemical and meteorological impacts on O3 formation in the southeastern coastal industrial city of Quanzhou in China. The machine-learning (ML)-based weather normalization showed that the de-weathered O3 concentrations (increased by 6.69 μg m−3) in 2022 were higher than those from 2015 to 2021. Temperature is the most important variable (33.5%), followed by solar radiation (23.5%) and RH (10.1%), differing from the O3 pollution in inland cities. The Observation-Based Model (OBM) analysis results showed that hydroxyl radical (OH) was the predominant oxidant for daytime atmospheric oxidation capacity (AOC). And oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs), NO2, and CO were the dominant contributors to OH reactivity, accelerating the recycling of ROx radicals and O3 formation. The daytime reaction rate of HO2+NO during the O3 pollution episodes was 20.0 ppb h−1, accounting for 65% of the total O3 production. The contribution of RO2+NO to the O3 production enhanced the possibility of the MDA8h O3 exceeding the Air Quality Standard of China. This study improves the understanding of O3 formation mechanisms in a coastal industrial city during heat waves, and the elevated contributions of meteorological conditions to O3 pollution become more challenge for the reduction of anthropogenic emissions controll.

The 2022 summer heat wave over China: An analysis of the severity and dominance from the frequency and intensity of high temperature

AbstractSummer high temperature is an important climate issue. Severe heat waves occurred over China during summer 2022. Using daily temperature, we examine the severity of the 2022 high‐temperature event, and explore the dominance of summer cumulative temperature from the frequency and intensity of high temperature, for both the interannual variation of the 63 years (1960–2022) and the year of 2022. Corresponding to different “high” temperature thresholds, the frequency (number of the days) of high temperature, the summer cumulative temperature, and the intensity of high temperature are obtained for each summer with the daily data. Statistical tests show that cumulative temperature can be linearly regressed to frequency and intensity, which can help find the dominance from the two factors. For interannual variation, the comparison of the normalized regression coefficients suggests that, in the variation of cumulative temperature, the relative importance can vary from “dominated by intensity”, which corresponds to low temperature threshold (28°C), to “dominated by frequency”, which corresponds to high threshold (36°C). For the year 2022, we compare the two terms in the regression, which uses the coefficients from multi‐year regression along with the normalized frequency and intensity of this year, to determine the relative importance. Results show that overall it also varies from “dominated by intensity” to “dominated by frequency”, with the increase in threshold. Note that, for the two cases, these are the overall situation for the whole country; however, for each specific station, whether frequency or intensity dominates needs to be determined with the measures. A moderate threshold of 32°C, which considers both frequency and intensity, is suggested for practical applications.

Summer Heatwaves in Southeastern Australia

AbstractHeatwaves in southeastern Australia have characteristic weather patterns that are well understood but are outnumbered by days with similar synoptic‐scale patterns that are not heatwaves. Accordingly, the aim of this study is to identify the key differences between heatwave and non‐heatwave days from 40 years of reanalysis data. A synoptic climatology of seven weather states was constructed by ‐means cluster analysis. Four of these states account for more than 80% of heatwave days across south‐and‐central eastern Australia. Moreover, the spatial maxima in the frequency of the heatwave days are distinct and geographically separated. Heatwave days have a stronger upper anticyclone or ridge that has propagated further equatorward in comparison with non‐heatwave days. The air upstream of the ridge is more humid on heatwave days, whereas downstream of the ridge the air is much drier. These dry anomalies are co‐located with midtropospheric subsidence and the moist anomalies with ascent, and their respective spatial distributions are consistent with regions of adiabatic warming and latent heating identified in recent studies of southeast Australian heatwaves. The corresponding vertical motion on non‐heatwave days is weaker and shifted further poleward. Southeast Queensland heatwave days exhibit increased baroclinicity over the Australian Subtropics and reduced rainfall over Queensland. Further south and west, heatwave days are associated with more amplified Rossby waves and increased rainfall over the Australian Tropics. Anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking is greatly enhanced on heatwave days south of 30°S. For every day in each of these four weather states, the 3‐day‐mean maximum temperature in the region of peak heatwave day frequency is positively correlated with 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies on the equatorward flank of the cluster‐mean upper ridge. These findings underline the importance of equatorward Rossby wave propagation in the dynamics of southeast Australian heatwaves.

Unconventional cold vortex as precursor to historic early summer heatwaves in North China 2023

In mid-June to July 2023, North China witnessed extreme heatwaves, marked by intense near-surface warming with an advanced seasonal cycle of local air temperature. An unconventional upper-tropospheric cold vortex in early June, deviating from conventional “heat dome” patterns, preceded the heatwave extremes. The zonal SSTA gradient in Indo-Pacific warm pool initially suppressed Indian summer monsoon convection, which stimulated the cold vortex around North China via a tropical-extratropical teleconnection. This anomaly intensified the air-land thermal contrast, leading to increased sensible heating and reduced soil moisture in situ. The drier soil conditions maintained and further augmented sensible heating, escalating surface air temperature, and culminating in extraordinary heatwaves. The air column was then destabilized to mitigate the upper-level cold vortex. Historical records corroborate the extremity of the air-sea interactions in 2023. The ECMWF real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts successfully capture the air-land feedback in both cold vortex and heatwave stages, albeit with an underestimation of heatwave intensity due to biases in soil moisture anomalies. Consequently, the initial cold vortex condition and air-land-sea interactions yield S2S predictability to the historic 2023 heatwaves in North China.

Heatwave Location Changes in Relation to Rossby Wave Phase Speed

AbstractSurface anticyclones connected to the ridge of an upper‐tropospheric Rossby wave are the main dynamical drivers of mid‐latitude summer heatwaves. It is, however, unclear to what extent an anomalously low zonal phase speed of the wave in the upper troposphere is necessary for persistent temperature extremes at the surface. Here, we use spectral decomposition to separate fast and slow synoptic‐scale waves. A composite analysis of ERA5 reanalysis data reveals that, while in some regions heatwaves become more frequent during episodes of weak or no phase propagation, temperature extremes in other regions are commonly associated with more rapidly eastward propagating Rossby waves. Reflected in the mean heatwave duration as well, this relationship is possibly linked to a longitudinal phase preference of slow and fast waves or a meridional storm track shift. These findings open up new questions about the influence of mid‐latitude dynamics on temperature extremes.

Precursors of summer heat waves in the Eastern Mediterranean

Precursors of summer heat waves in the Eastern Mediterranean

Extremes of Weather Conditions and Child Health

Background: The number of people exposed to extreme heat is growing exponentially due to climate change worldwide. Heat-related mortality for people over 65 years of age and young children has increased by 85% between 2000–2004 and 2017–2021. World Meteorological Organization announced that there’s an 80% chance that the world will exceed the 1.5 °C temperature limit in at least one of the next 5 years. Aim: To review the impact of extremes of climate changes on Children’s health based on cases managed and reported in media. Methods: Material &amp; Methods: This article is a review of the impact of extremes of heat &amp; Cold weather on children, based on personal handling of cases and media reports of the adverse effects of heat this summer, exercising /punishing children in hot and cold weather. Key findings: Most children experience increased thirst, weakness, headache, dizziness or fainting, muscle cramps, nausea and/or vomiting, irritability, prickly heat &amp; heavy sweating. Dehydration in children is more than just being thirsty, as it is a condition where there isn’t enough fluid in the body because children lose more water than they take in. High heat stress also reduces physical work capacity and motor-cognitive performances, with consequences for school attendance for children. The cold weather itself doesn’t cause illness, but it weakens the immune system, making it a lot harder for the child to fight off infections. Conclusion: Temperatures above long-term averages during summer months and heatwaves are associated with cardiorespiratory and other diseases and mental health issues. Very young children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of heat, irrespective of income level or geographical region. Most heat-related mortality and morbidities are preventable with individual efforts like avoidance of exposure, improved community preparedness, and Public Health Advisory.

Anthropogenic forcing and subtropical anticyclonic drivers of the August 2022 heatwave in China

The Yangtze River basin experienced record-breaking high temperatures in July–August 2022, leading the China Meteorological Administration to issue its first ever “red heat warning”. We use simulations from the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) to investigate the role of anthropogenic drivers in this extreme event. We have demonstrated that the strong Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH), attributed to internal variability, serves as the clear proximate driver for such extreme event, whether in the factual world or in the counterfactual world. When considering similar circulation patterns in 2022, the results show that anthropogenic forcing has contributed to the 2022-like heatwave by a factor about 7 compared to natural forcing under the present climate of the past 30 years. Specifically, the anthropogenic greenhouse gases made the event about 10 times more likely, while anthropogenic aerosols had negative effect. The results were similar but differed in exact contribution values when specific circulation regimes of 2022 were not considered. In general, global warming caused by anthropogenic activities has made extreme summer heatwaves far more frequent, especially in recent decades.

Impacts of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation on Marginal Sea Heatwaves of the Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean

AbstractMarginal seas of the southeastern tropical Indian Ocean (SETIO), including the South Java coasts and the Timor and Arafura Seas, are hotspots of large‐scale marine heatwaves (MHWs) in austral summer with notable impacts on local ecosystems. Yet, the prediction of these MHWs remains challenging. By analyzing 39 MHWs and 45 marine cold‐spells (MCSs) observed in the summers of 1982–2021, this study reveals a robust modulation effect of the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) on these events. The results show that 56% of MHWs and 51% of MCSs overlapped with MJO events, and their duration is systematically longer than others. Moreover, MHWs in phases 3–4 and MCSs in phases 6–7 of the real‐time multivariate MJO (RMM) index were nearly 2–3 times stronger in intensity than the others. The passage of MJOs drives prominent intraseasonal sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the SETIO through perturbing surface heat fluxes, which in turn modulates the occurrence of MHWs and MCSs. During RMM phases 1–2 (convective center over of the east of Africa or the central‐western Indian Ocean), the SETIO is controlled by a dry condition, with increased surface insolation and suppressed latent heat release. These anomalous fluxes drive a persistent SST increase, facilitating the emergence of strong and prolonged MHWs in the subsequent RMM phases 3–4. Further analysis suggests an 18% probability for MHWs in the SETIO 12 ± 10 days after Phase 1. Therefore, the MJO contributes to the predictability of MHWs/MCSs of the SETIO, with implications for predicting climate extremes and hazards.

Synergistic effects of Arctic amplification and Tibetan Plateau amplification on the Yangtze River Basin heatwaves

Extreme heatwaves pose a significant threat to a wide range of environmental, ecological, and social systems. The rapid warming of the Arctic and the Tibetan Plateau (TP), which are the most prominent features in the Northern Hemisphere in the context of climate change, has significantly influenced mid-latitude extreme events in recent decades. This study utilizes observational data and numerical simulations to demonstrate that the variations in Arctic amplification (AA) and TP amplification (TA) play a crucial role in the interannual variability of summer heatwaves (HWs) in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB) (HWs_YRB) region. The HWs_YRB is associated with a zonally oriented barotropic high-pressure system anchored over the YRB region. The spatial distribution and intensity of the HWs_YRB are impacted by the synergistic effects of AA and TA, via a meridional atmospheric tripole pattern and double jets over East Asia. Furthermore, AA primarily impacts the geographical extent of the HWs_YRB, while TA plays a critical role in determining the intensity of the HWs_YRB. Our findings provide an innovative perspective on the linkage between the pronounced warming observed in the Arctic and TP and the occurrence of summer HWs_YRB, enhancing our comprehension of the climatic consequences of the rapid changes in these two geographical regions.

Response of Sustainable Solar Photovoltaic Power Output to Summer Heatwave Events in Northern China

Response of Sustainable Solar Photovoltaic Power Output to Summer Heatwave Events in Northern China

Dual Impacts of Space Heating Electrification and Climate Change Increase Uncertainties in Peak Load Behavior and Grid Capacity Requirements in Texas

AbstractAround 60% of households in Texas currently rely on electricity for space heating. As decarbonization efforts increase, non‐electrified households could adopt electric heat pumps, significantly increasing peak (highest) electricity demand in winter. Simultaneously, anthropogenic climate change is expected to increase temperatures, the potential for summer heat waves, and associated electricity demand for cooling. Uncertainty regarding the timing and magnitude of these concurrent changes raises questions about how they will jointly affect the seasonality of peak demand, firm capacity requirements, and grid reliability. This study investigates the net effects of residential space heating electrification and climate change on long‐term demand patterns and load shedding potential, using climate change projections, a predictive load model, and a direct current optimal power flow (DCOPF) model of the Texas grid. Results show that full electrification of residential space heating by replacing existing fossil fuel use with higher efficiency heat pumps could significantly improve reliability under hotter futures. Less efficient heat pumps may result in more severe winter peaking events and increased reliability risks. As heating electrification intensifies, system planners will need to balance the potential for greater resource adequacy risk caused by shifts in seasonal peaking behavior alongside the benefits (improved efficiency and reductions in emissions).

Differences in Variations of Long-Lived and Short-Lived Summer Heat Waves during 1981–2020 over Eastern China and Their Corresponding Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies

Differences in Variations of Long-Lived and Short-Lived Summer Heat Waves during 1981–2020 over Eastern China and Their Corresponding Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies