Intensity Of Heat Waves Research Articles

Unconventional cold vortex as precursor to historic early summer heatwaves in North China 2023

In mid-June to July 2023, North China witnessed extreme heatwaves, marked by intense near-surface warming with an advanced seasonal cycle of local air temperature. An unconventional upper-tropospheric cold vortex in early June, deviating from conventional “heat dome” patterns, preceded the heatwave extremes. The zonal SSTA gradient in Indo-Pacific warm pool initially suppressed Indian summer monsoon convection, which stimulated the cold vortex around North China via a tropical-extratropical teleconnection. This anomaly intensified the air-land thermal contrast, leading to increased sensible heating and reduced soil moisture in situ. The drier soil conditions maintained and further augmented sensible heating, escalating surface air temperature, and culminating in extraordinary heatwaves. The air column was then destabilized to mitigate the upper-level cold vortex. Historical records corroborate the extremity of the air-sea interactions in 2023. The ECMWF real-time subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts successfully capture the air-land feedback in both cold vortex and heatwave stages, albeit with an underestimation of heatwave intensity due to biases in soil moisture anomalies. Consequently, the initial cold vortex condition and air-land-sea interactions yield S2S predictability to the historic 2023 heatwaves in North China.

Drivers of future extratropical sea surface temperature variability changes in the North Pacific

Under anthropogenic warming, future changes to climate variability beyond specific modes such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have not been well-characterized. In the Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble (CESM2-LE) climate model, the future change to sea surface temperature (SST) variability (and correspondingly marine heatwave intensity) on monthly timescales and longer is spatially heterogeneous. We examined these projected changes (between 1960–2000 and 2060–2100) in the North Pacific using a local linear stochastic-deterministic model, which allowed us to quantify the effect of changes to three drivers on SST variability: ocean “memory” (the SST damping timescale), ENSO teleconnections, and stochastic noise forcing. The ocean memory declines in most areas, but lengthens in the central North Pacific. This change is primarily due to changes in air-sea feedbacks and ocean damping, with the shallowing mixed layer depth playing a secondary role. An eastward shift of the ENSO teleconnection pattern is primarily responsible for the pattern of SST variance change.

Archetypes of climate change adaptation among large-scale arable farmers in southern Romania

Effects of climate change and especially the associated climate variability require farmers to adjust to increasing frequencies of extreme events. In the agriculturally highly productive Romanian Plain, the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves and drought have increased over the past 20 years. Although recent surveys revealed farmers’ awareness of climate change and enumerated a number of farm adaptation measures in the Romanian context, a systems approach to adaptation that allows conclusions on farm vulnerability and adaptive capacity is missing. Here, we use archetypal analysis to elucidate and characterize for the first time the types of adaptation responses of arable farmers in southern Romania. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 30 farmers managing 51,500 ha located across the southern lowlands of Romania, selected for their diversity of management approaches. Farmers were asked about experienced climatic disturbances, crop production losses during the most extreme events over the past 5–10 years, and the adaptation measures they implemented over that period of time. In addition, structural characteristics of the farm were recorded. The adaptation measures were classified and mapped on the efficiency, substitution, and redesign gradient used to classify sustainability stages. Results revealed three archetypes of adaptation, consisting of measures at field and farm level ranging from predominantly efficiency-enhancing ones (e.g., crop choice and management and risk insurance) to complete farm redesign involving agrotechnical and financial management changes. Structural farm characteristics did not explain differences between farms in their association with one of the archetypes. Our approach and results show for the first time both the need for strengthening farmer-level support in one of Europe’s key food production areas and the lessons that can be drawn from the outlier adaptation examples. Current European and national policies offer opportunities for farmer organizations in Romania to make these conclusions actionable.

Droughts and heatwaves in the West African monsoon system

AbstractHeatwaves and droughts increasingly impact public health and societal system in a world subject to global warming. Several studies reported these phenomena all around the world, but there is a dearth of research specifically in West Africa. This study fills that gap by comparing heatwave/heat stress and drought occurrence in three climate zones (Guinea, Sudan and Sahel) of West Africa from 1981 to 2020. The analysis focuses on the comparison of station and gridded datasets. The Cumulative Excess Heat (CumHeat) and the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) are considered for heatwaves. For drought, the Standardized Precipitation (Evapotranspiration) Index SPI (SPEI) are used at 3‐, 6‐ and 12‐month scales. Both heatwave and drought characteristics are investigated as well as their co‐occurrence (D‐HW). The investigation reveals a good correlation between station and gridded datasets for drought indices. While station data records fewer and less intense heatwave, gridded data indicates longer‐lasting heat extremes. The study also demonstrates a strong agreement between the UTCI computed from the Rayman model and ERA5‐HEAT dataset, despite timing discrepancies, especially along the Guinea coast. The Sahel region is found to endure higher heat stress levels, with increasing intensity of heatwaves over time. Notably, the study uncovers an increasing frequency of compound D‐HW in all zones, especially the Sudan and Sahel zones, offering new insights into the climatic challenges faced by West Africa. These findings emphasize the critical need for improved planning and early warning systems (EWS) to mitigate the impacts of these climate extremes ecosystems and human health.

Cyanide in cassava: Understanding the drivers, impacts of climate variability, and strategies for food security

AbstractThe consumption of cassava, a vital staple food for more than 1 billion people worldwide, holds particular significance in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). Expansion in cassava production in SSA is driven by increasing market demand, local consumption, and adaptability to diverse environments. However, cyanide concentration in cassava tubers and products across SSA ranges from 9 to 1148 ppm – most exceed the World Health Organisation's recommended safe level of 10 ppm. Such variation and high cyanide concentrations in cassava products are expected to be exacerbated by climate‐induced increases in the frequency, intensity and occurrence of drought, heat waves and biotic stresses, further jeopardising regional food security. Thus, it is essential to examine cassava production and cyanide toxicity under climate change and their implications for food security in SSA. In this review, we look at the drivers of cassava production and spatial variation in cyanide concentrations across SSA, impacts of climate variability and biotic stresses on cassava cyanide concentrations in SSA, and crop management practices for reducing cyanogenic glucosides in cassava tubers. We surmise that urgent actions are required to adopt improved cassava varieties and management strategies that reduce cassava cyanide toxicity amid climate‐induced challenges in SSA.

Thermal tolerance plasticity and dynamics of thermal tolerance in Eublepharis macularius: Implications for future climate-driven heat stress

The intensity and duration of heat waves, as well as average global temperatures, are expected to increase due to climate change. Heat waves can cause physiological stress and reduce fitness in animals. Species can reduce overheating risk through phenotypic plasticity, which allows them to raise their thermal tolerance limits over time. This mechanism could be important for ectotherms whose body temperatures are directly influenced by available environmental temperatures. Geckos are a large, diverse group of ectotherms that vary in their thermal habitats and times of daily activity, which could affect how they physiologically adjust to heat waves. Data on thermal physiology are scarce for reptiles, with only one study in geckos. Understanding thermal tolerance and plasticity, and their relationship, is essential for understanding how some species are able to adjust or adapt to changing temperatures. In this study, we estimated thermal tolerance and plasticity, and their interaction, in the crepuscular gecko, Eublepharis macularius, a species that is emerging as a model for reptile biology. After estimating basal thermal tolerance for 28 geckos, thermal tolerance was measured for each individual a second time at several timepoints (3, 6, or 24 h) to determine thermal tolerance plasticity. We found that thermal tolerance plasticity (1) does not depend on the basal thermal tolerance of the organism, (2) was highest after 6 h from initial heat shock, and (3) was negatively influenced by individual body mass. Our findings contribute to the increasing body of work focused on understanding the influence of biological and environmental factors on thermal tolerance plasticity in organisms and provide phenotypic data to further investigate the molecular basis of thermal tolerance plasticity in organisms.

Marine heatwaves alter competition between the cultured macroalga Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis and the harmful bloom alga Skeletonema costatum

Seaweed cultivation can inhibit the occurrence of red tides. However, how seaweed aquaculture interactions with harmful algal blooms will be affected by the increasing occurrence and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) is unknown. In this study, we run both monoculture and coculture systems to investigate the effects of a simulated heatwave on the competition of the economically important macroalga Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis against the harmful bloom diatom Skeletonema costatum. Coculture with G. lemaneiformis led to a growth decrease in S. costatum. Growth and photosynthetic activity (Fv/Fm) of G. lemaneiformis was greatly reduced by the heatwave treatment, and did not recover even after one week. Growth and photosynthetic activity of S. costatum was also reduced by the heatwave in coculture, but returned to normal during the recovery period. S. costatum also responded to the stressful environment by forming aggregates. Metabolomic analysis suggests that the negative effects on S. costatum were related to an allelochemical release from G. lemaneiformis. These findings show that MHWs may enhance the competitive advantages of S. costatum against G. lemaneiformis, leading to more severe harmful algal blooms in future extreme weather scenarios.

Attribution of the unprecedented heat event of August 2023 in Barcelona (Spain) to observed and projected global warming

The study analyses observed and numerical simulations of daily maximum and minimum temperature from 1920 onwards and to investigate the unprecedented heat event that occurred in 21–23 August 2023 in Barcelona. The historical changes in the intensity of such events, their expected future changes under scenarios of +1.5 °C, +2 °C, and + 3 °C, and the future exposure of populations to such kind of events are examined using the flow analogues approach. The findings indicate a significant increase in observed temperatures for similar heatwaves to those occurred in August 2023. The study also emphasises the impact of global warming on the intensification of heat events over the impact of urbanization. Additionally, after examining the role of natural variability in temperature changes, we concluded that global warming is the primary factor driving the increase in heatwave intensity. In terms of the frequency of such events, we found that extreme heat events, such as the August 2023 heatwave, will become 2 and 5 times more likely with a global summer warming of 2 °C and 3 °C, respectively. This will expose a large portion of the population to dangerous heat levels highlighting the importance of limiting global warming to 1.5 °C to mitigate the impacts on urban populations.

Strong marine heatwaves trigger flowering in seagrass

AbstractIn recent decades, the global intensification of marine heatwaves has impacted several ecosystems and species, including the endemic Mediterranean seagrass Posidonia oceanica. However, the scarcity of research in Eastern Mediterranean meadows, where historical and present thermal conditions differ from those of the Western Mediterranean, hampers our ability to draw comprehensive conclusions regarding the species' response to elevated sea temperatures. Here, we studied flowering patterns of P. oceanica meadows (3–15 m depth) of the Greek seas and assessed their potential association with marine heatwaves, while also examining the effects on plant growth associated with the transition from vegetative to sexual reproduction. To do so, we reconstructed flowering patterns from 2007 to 2021 across 58 meadows using lepidochronology and estimated summer marine heatwave metrics and categories using satellite sea surface temperature. The results revealed that flowering, while sporadic in most meadows (mean flowering frequency: 0.15), it was triggered by strong (Category II) summer marine heatwaves and a cumulative intensity exceeding 30°C days. Nevertheless, flowering density was low (mean flowering density: 11 inflorescences m−2) and not fuelled by frequency, intensity, or duration of marine heatwaves. Despite the potential long‐term benefits of sexual reproduction, annual rhizome production of flowering shoots decreased 1.5‐fold for at least 2 yr postflowering. This study uncovers the susceptibility of Eastern Mediterranean P. oceanica meadows, akin to their western counterparts, to marine heatwaves induced stress and its effects on reproductive strategies, raising concerns about the prospective plant growth and reproductive fitness to the escalating trend in marine heatwaves.

Climate change impact on energy savings in mixed-mode ventilation office buildings in Brazil

With the projected increase in temperature, coupled with the rise in intensity and frequency of heatwaves caused by climate change, it has become essential to investigate the impact of climate change on building energy consumption and thermal comfort. This study focuses on office buildings with mixed-mode ventilation in Brazil as a case study. Using a typical 15-story office building archetype for various Brazilian cities, considering current and predicted scenarios (2050 and 2080), the potential for energy savings through natural ventilation was assessed. It was observed that the average increase in temperature and wind speed in the predicted climate varied in each city and showed significant variations over the years. Predicted projections under high-emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5-2080) reveal significant increases in energy consumption, highlighting the vulnerability of cities like Belo Horizonte, which could face a 77% increase in total energy consumption. Additionally, the analysis of HVAC hours of use over time indicates a progressive increase, suggesting a potential reduction in natural ventilation as a mitigation strategy. Mitigation measures, especially in the SSP1-2.6 scenario, are crucial to stabilize HVAC consumption and preserve the use of natural ventilation, emphasizing the importance of sustainable approaches to address the energy challenges arising from climate change.

A novel quantitative method of heatwave classification for building resilience analysis

More frequent and extreme heatwaves result in an increased risk of overheating in residential buildings. The utilization of heatwave weather files is fundamental in evaluating the thermal resilience of buildings. However, limited studies have focused on quantitative classification methods that consider multiple heatwave characteristics and how buildings respond to different heatwave types. Therefore, this study aims to propose a quantitative method for classifying heatwaves by considering the duration and intensity, while also providing the thresholds for duration and intensity to identify different types of heatwaves. Subsequently, the impacts of different types of heatwaves on indoor overheating was quantified and compared through simulation of indoor thermal environment in three prototype residential buildings in China. The indoor overheating risk was then evaluated based on the indoor overheating degree. The results revealed four types of heatwaves: short and moderate, short and intense, long and moderate, and long and intense. The short and moderate heatwaves represented the majority. While the long and intense heatwaves had the highest influence on indoor overheating risks. Hence, these two types of heatwaves are suggested to be considered in building resilience analysis. The proposed method demonstrated its effectiveness in classifying heatwaves based on the impact on indoor environments.

Global impacts of marine heatwaves on coastal foundation species

With increasingly intense marine heatwaves affecting nearshore regions, foundation species are coming under increasing stress. To better understand their impacts, we examine responses of critical, habitat-forming foundation species (macroalgae, seagrass, corals) to marine heatwaves in 1322 shallow coastal areas located across 85 marine ecoregions. We find compelling evidence that intense, summer marine heatwaves play a significant role in the decline of foundation species globally. Critically, detrimental effects increase towards species warm-range edges and over time. We also identify several ecoregions where foundation species don’t respond to marine heatwaves, suggestive of some resilience to warming events. Cumulative marine heatwave intensity, absolute temperature, and location within a species’ range are key factors mediating impacts. Our results suggest many coastal ecosystems are losing foundation species, potentially impacting associated biodiversity, ecological function, and ecosystem services provision. Understanding relationships between marine heatwaves and foundation species offers the potential to predict impacts that are critical for developing management and adaptation approaches.

Despite plasticity, heatwaves are costly for a coral reef fish

Climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, including marine heatwaves, which are prolonged periods of anomalously high sea surface temperature that pose a novel threat to aquatic animals. Tropical animals may be especially vulnerable to marine heatwaves because they are adapted to a narrow temperature range. If these animals cannot acclimate to marine heatwaves, the extreme heat could impair their behavior and fitness. Here, we investigated how marine heatwave conditions affected the performance and thermal tolerance of a tropical predatory fish, arceye hawkfish (Paracirrhites arcatus), across two seasons in Moorea, French Polynesia. We found that the fish’s daily activities, including recovery from burst swimming and digestion, were more energetically costly in fish exposed to marine heatwave conditions across both seasons, while their aerobic capacity remained the same. Given their constrained energy budget, these rising costs associated with warming may impact how hawkfish prioritize activities. Additionally, hawkfish that were exposed to hotter temperatures exhibited cardiac plasticity by increasing their maximum heart rate but were still operating within a few degrees of their thermal limits. With more frequent and intense heatwaves, hawkfish, and other tropical fishes must rapidly acclimate, or they may suffer physiological consequences that alter their role in the ecosystem.

Impact of a water restriction on the summer climatic benefits of trees inside an outdoor street canyon scale model

Trees may help reduce the increasing human thermal stress in cities caused by the Urban Heat Island phenomenon and the multiplication and intensification of heatwaves through the climatic benefits they provide: cast shadows and transpiration. However, the multiplication of droughts may lower the water supply of street trees and impact their development and climatic benefits. The transpiration and radiation interception of two alignments of potted ornamental apple trees (Malus Coccinella® ‘Courtarou’) planted in a 1/5 scale street canyon experiencing contrasted water supplies were monitored during an 8-week period of summer 2022. Compared to well-watered trees, the transpiration of water-restricted trees was reduced quickly and strongly by 81 % on average. A noticeable reduction of the leaf area index of the water-restricted trees led to a decrease of their radiation interception which however remained higher than 69 % of the incident radiation measured without trees. No noticeable air temperature difference was measured under the tree crowns of both alignments of trees but the Universal Thermal Climate Index calculated under the water-restricted trees increased by on average 1 °C. Radiation interception appeared to be responsible for the major part of the daily total amount of energy dissipated. A noticeable reduction of the daily total amount of energy dissipated by the WR trees was mostly attributed to the reduction of their transpiration which may explain why both alignments of trees kept providing noticeable climatic benefits.

Soil environmental anomalies dominate the responses of net ecosystem productivity to heatwaves in three Mongolian grasslands

Climate change is causing more frequent and intense heatwaves. Therefore, it is important to understand how heatwaves affect the terrestrial carbon cycle, especially in grasslands, which are especially susceptible to climate extremes. This study assessed the impact of naturally occurring, simultaneous short-term heatwaves on CO2 fluxes in three ecosystems on the Mongolia Plateau: meadow steppe (MDW), typical steppe (TPL), and shrub-grassland (SHB). During three heatwaves, net ecosystem productivity (NEP) was reduced by 86 %, 178 %, and 172 % at MDW, TPL, and SHB, respectively. The changes in ecosystem respiration, gross primary production, evapotranspiration, and water use efficiency were divergent, indicating the mechanisms underlying the observed NEP decreases among the sites. The impact of the heatwave in MDW was mitigated by the high soil water content, which enhanced evapotranspiration and subsequent cooling effects. However, at TPL, insufficient soil water led to combined thermal and drought stress and low resilience. At SHB, the ecosystem's low tolerance to an August heatwave was heavily influenced by species phenology, as it coincided with the key phenological growing phase of plants. The potential key mechanism of divergent NEP response to heatwaves lies in the divergent stability and varying importance of environmental factors, combined with the specific sensitivity of NEP to each factor in ecosystems. Furthermore, our findings suggest that anomalies in soil environment, rather than atmospheric anomalies, are the primary determinants of NEP anomalies during heatwaves. This challenges the conventional understanding of heatwaves as a discrete and ephemeral periods of high air temperatures. Instead, heatwaves should be viewed as chronologically variable, compound, and time-sensitive environmental stressors. The ultimate impact of heatwaves on ecosystems is co-determined by a complex interplay of environmental, biological, and heatwave features.

Urban morphology as a key parameter for mitigating urban heat? – A literature review

Abstract More frequent and intense heat waves, especially in urban centers, represent a growing challenge for urban designers and building planners. In the last five years, extensive research has been undertaken on the relation between urban form, including density, and urban heat phenomena. Dense urban configurations are often considered central drivers of hot microclimates. However, less dense cities easily cause other ecological (e.g. land consumption), functional (public mobility), and socioeconomic (social diversity) problems. Consequently, the current panoply of recommended heat mitigation and sustainability measures constitutes an unclear basis for strategic planning decisions. Thus, this study examines the literature on urban morphology in relation to urban heat events. Around 800 scientific articles and studies are categorized regarding the applied methodology, the studied geographic location, the observed urban form parameters, and the examined thermal parameter. Most identified literature uses traditional field measurement, remote sensing, numerical simulation, or a combination. Air temperature and land surface temperature are the most observed thermal parameters, while the growing number of studies that focus on human outdoor thermal comfort is highly relevant for effective heat mitigation and adaptation. This study suggests that from a scientific point of view, urban morphology measures do not principally carry a paramount role in heat mitigation compared to other aspects, such as vegetation or materialization. Current planning approaches for climate-resilient cities are highly case-specific, where no generally applicable rules or effective recipes regarding urban built form are available.

Longer‐ and Slower‐Moving Contiguous Heatwaves Linked to El Niño

AbstractAlthough it is known that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are affected by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), unknown are the ENSO modulations on the moving properties (e.g., moving distance and speed) of spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves. Here, we investigate the relationship between ENSO and the moving patterns of contiguous heatwaves. We show that contiguous heatwaves are likely more frequent, more persistent, and longer‐traveling, but slower‐moving during El Niño than La Niña episodes. The differences in the tropical contiguous heatwaves between El Niño and La Niña are influenced by persistent high‐pressure anomalies. During the following summers, El Niño can induce anomalous atmospheric circulation characterized by an intensified subsidence over the western North Pacific and ascending motion over the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. These features provide favorable conditions for the occurrence and maintenance of contiguous heatwaves.

Canopy Architecture and Sun Exposure Influence Berry Cluster-Water Relations in the Grapevine Variety Muscat of Alexandria.

Climate-change-related increases in the frequency and intensity of heatwaves affect viticulture, leading to losses in yield and grape quality. We assessed whether canopy-architecture manipulation mitigates the effects of summer stress in a Mediterranean vineyard. The Vitis vinifera L variety Muscat of Alexandria plants were monitored during 2019-2020. Two canopy shoot-positioning treatments were applied: vertical shoot positioning (VSP) and modulated shoot positioning (MSP). In MSP, the west-side upper foliage was released to promote partial shoot leaning, shading the clusters. Clusters were sampled at pea size (PS), veraison (VER), and full maturation (FM). Measurements included rachis anatomy and hydraulic conductance (Kh) and aquaporins (AQP) and stress-related genes expression in cluster tissues. The results show significant seasonal and interannual differences in Kh and vascular anatomy. At VER, the Kh of the rachis and rachis+pedicel and the xylem diameter decreased but were unaffected by treatments. The phloem-xylem ratio was either increased (2019) or reduced (2020) in MSP compared to VSP. Most AQPs were down-regulated at FM in pedicels and up-regulated at VER in pulp. A potential maturation shift in MSP was observed and confirmed by the up-regulation of several stress-related genes in all tissues. The study pinpoints the role of canopy architecture in berry-water relations and stress response during ripening.

Coping with the concurrent heatwaves and ozone extremes in China under a warming climate

Intensive human activity has brought about unprecedented climate and environmental crises, in which concurrent heatwaves and ozone extremes pose the most serious threats. However, a limited understanding of the comprehensive mechanism hinders our ability to mitigate such compound events, especially in densely populated regions like China. Here, based on field observations and climate-chemistry coupled modelling, we elucidate the linkage between human activities and the climate system in heat-related ozone pollution. In China, we have observed that both the frequency and intensity of heatwaves have almost tripled since the beginning of this century. Moreover, these heatwaves are becoming more common in urban clusters with serious ozone pollution. Persistent heatwaves during the extremely hot and dry summers of 2013 and 2022 accelerated photochemical ozone production by boosting anthropogenic and biogenic emissions, and aggravated ozone accumulation by suppressing dry deposition due to water-stressed vegetation, leading to a more than 30% increase in ozone pollution in China’s urban areas. The sensitivity of ozone to heat is demonstrated to be substantially modulated by anthropogenic emissions, and China’s clean air policy may have altered the relationship between ozone and temperature. Climate model projections further highlight that the high-emission climate-socioeconomic scenario tends to intensify the concurrent heat and ozone extremes in the next century. Our results underscore that the implementation of a strict emission strategy will significantly reduce the co-occurrence of heatwaves and ozone extremes, achieving climate and environmental co-benefits.

Food web trophic control modulates tropical Atlantic reef ecosystems response to marine heat wave intensity and duration.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodes of anomalous warming in the ocean that can last from a few days to years. MHWs have different characteristics in terms of intensity, duration and frequency and generate thermal stress in marine ecosystems. In reef ecosystems, they are one of the main causes of the decreased presence and abundance of corals, invertebrates and fish. The deleterious capacity of thermal stress often depends on biotic factors, such as the trophic control of predators on prey. Despite the evidence of thermal stress and biotic factors affecting individual species, the combined effects of both stressors on entire reef ecosystems are much less studied. Here, using a food web modelling approach, we estimated the rate of change in species' biomass due to different MHW characteristics. Specifically, we modelled the mechanistic link between species' consumption rate and seawater temperature (thermal stressor), simulating species' biomass dynamics for different MHW characteristics under different trophic control assumptions (top-down, mixed trophic control and bottom-up). We find that total reef ecosystem biomass declined by 10% ± 5% under MHWs with severe intensity and a top-down control assumption. The bottom-up control assumption moderates the total ecosystem biomass reduction by 5% ± 5%. Irrespective of the MHW characteristics and the trophic control assumption, the most substantial biomass changes occur among top, mesopredators and corals (5% to 20% ± 10%). We show that reef ecosystems where predators exert top-down control on prey are prone to suffer species abundance declines under strong MHW events. We identify food web trophic control as a crucial driver that modulates the impacts of MHWs. Overall, our results provide a unified understanding of the interplay between abiotic stressors and biotic factors in reef ecosystems under extreme thermal events, offering insights into present baselines and future ecological states for reef ecosystems.