Intensity Of Heat Waves Research Articles

Assessing Land Use and Cover Changes arising from the 2022 water crisis in Southeast China: A comparative analysis of Remote Sensing Imagery classifications and Machine Learning algorithms

Abstract. The water crisis in the southeast region of China in 2022, caused by one of the worst heatwaves on record, was characterized by severe shortages of water resources, leading to challenges for local communities, agriculture, and industry. To analyze changes in land use and land cover (LULC) in the Jialing River region, Chongqing, China, we compared Remote Sensing (RS) imagery classifications before and after the intense heat waves of 2022. We evaluated the performance of two machine learning algorithms, KDTree KNN and Random Forest (RF), in LULC classifications. The classifications were carried out based on the RS images from the OLI/Landsat 8 system, NDWI index, and SRTM data. The model performances were similar, the classification accuracy showed that the RF algorithm was superior to KDTree KNN. The RF LULC classification and area calculation corroborate with the visual analysis, reaffirming the superiority of RF, which shows a decrease in water surface area, unlike DKTree KNN.

Reduced primary productivity and notable resilience of phytoplankton community in the coastal water of southern China under a marine heatwave

Increasing frequency, intensity and duration of marine heatwaves (MHWs) are supposed to affect coastal biological production in different regions to different extents. To understand how MHWs impact coastal primary productivity and community succession of phytoplankton and assess the changes in resilience of phytoplankton communities, we conducted a mesoscale enclosure experiment simulating a marine MHW in the coastal water of southern China. After 8 days of the MHW (+3 oC) treatment, community biomass was significantly lower than the control’s, and primary productivity per volume of water was reduced by about 56%. Nevertheless, the phytoplankton community retrieved its biomass and primary productivity after the temperature was subsequently reset to that of the control. Although the MHW treatment decreased the abundance of diatom and increased the percentages of Synechococcus and Prasinophytes, the main phytoplankton functional types showed positive resilience that allowed the recovery of the phytoplankton community after the MHW. Our results indicate that key phytoplankton functional types in the southern coastal waters of China exhibited significant resilience, recovery, and temporal stability under the influence of the marine MHW by 3 oC rise. However, reduced primary productivity during the MHW period, along with decreased biomass density, might significantly influence secondary producers. In addition, the altered phytoplankton community structure may affect coastal food web processes at least during the MHW period.

Assessing demographic and socioeconomic susceptibilities to heatwaves in the Southeastern United Kingdom

As climate change intensifies, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves are rising to pose significant health risks. Population vulnerability, influenced by socio-economic and demographics factors, is a widespread concern. We analysed heat vulnerability by demonstrating usefulness of principal component analysis on recent, localised census data at lower super output scale for vulnerability factors such as poverty, access to cooling facilities, age, and gender for a non-city yet highly heat risk vulnerable case study of Surrey, UK. Four major factors (poverty, elderly population, unemployed students, daily commute) were identified, creating a cumulative Heat Vulnerability Index, aiding in prioritising interventions and mapping vulnerable areas. Mapping revealed most areas had a moderate vulnerability level of 3 out of 6 for individual major factors, with cumulative scores ranging from 11 to 12 out of 20. The study emphasises the interconnectedness of vulnerability factors and highlights the applicability of the approach beyond Surrey. The demonstrated methodology provides a valuable template for vulnerability assessments in regions facing similar challenges and have its up-to-date effective heat action plan underlining the importance of tailored strategies for comprehensive heat risk management (e.g. cooling centres, transport aid, multilingual risk communication and home visits). Policymakers can utilise the insights gained to develop targeted measures for vulnerable populations and manage heat-related issues effectively on a global scale.

Unveiling Marine Heatwave Dynamics in the Persian /Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis and Future Projections

Amid escalating global marine heat waves, the Arabian Gulf is critical due to its shallow depths, high temperatures, and vulnerability to climate change impacts. This study provides a detailed spatio-temporal analysis of marine heatwave events from 1982 to 2022 across the Arabian Gulf and the adjacent Gulf of Oman. The study delineates regions of heightened vulnerability within these water bodies by comprehensively analyzing seasonal and annual variabilities and trend assessments. Moreover, an exploration of prevailing surface circulation patterns, underpinned by an extensive study of global circulation model outputs, elucidates the oceanographic mechanisms contributing to temperature dynamics. Identifying 25 significant heat wave events, with a focused examination of the six most protracted episodes, is noteworthy among the findings. Strikingly, the analysis reveals that the Gulf of Oman surpasses the Arabian Gulf in heatwave intensity. Looking forward, the investigation extends to future surface water temperature projections up to the close of the current century. The collective results underscore the region's acute susceptibility to the climate change perturbations of climate change, emphasizing the urgency of targeted interventions to mitigate these effects and address concurrent local stressors.

Organic matter ingestion and assimilation rates by the sea cucumber Holothuria (Holothuria) tubulosa (Gmelin, 1788) at different temperatures and potential effects on benthic trophic status

We investigated the effects of different temperature anomalies (up to +12 °C) on the biochemical features of sediments offered to specimens of the sea cucumber Holothuria (Holothuria) tubulosa (Gmelin, 1788) and of its feces. We also estimated ingestion and assimilation rates of different classes of organic compounds after the different treatments. The exposure to temperature anomalies influenced the metabolism and organic matter assimilation efficiency of H. tubulosa. Counterintuitively, our results would suggest that H. tubulosa, irrespectively of temperature, might not be the best option for removing excess organic matter from eutrophicated sediments, though having consequences on the organic matter nutritional quality. Since oceans’ temperature is projected to further increase by 2100 along with frequency, intensity and duration of marine heatwaves, H. tubulosa will most likely experience a potential contraction of its distribution areal, with cascading consequences on benthic trophic webs dynamics.

Design of heat-resilient housing in hot-arid regions

Extreme heat events in urban areas increasingly challenge the capacity of electrical distribution systems to serve building cooling equipment under peak loads and, when power is interrupted, the thermal response of buildings that can delay the onset of dangerously high indoor temperatures. The design of new buildings and their operation can mitigate the risks of intense heatwaves, but architects and planners face a myriad of choices about what measures to select, and how best to estimate their individual and collective performance. To aid the design and operation of heat-resilient buildings, this paper takes a multidisciplinary approach that is novel in two key aspects. First, it evaluates the individual and aggregated impact of factors associated with architectural and urban design, equipment technologies, and human behavior. Second, its valuation metrics include the magnitude of peak electrical load, appropriate for assessing active measures aimed at reducing peak power, and the time after a power outage for indoor temperatures to reach levels associated with heat stress, an indication of the efficacy of passive (no power) measures. The application of the method in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, where growing populations and demand for space cooling make it particularly relevant, relies on knowledge of building codes and local construction practice. Single-factor testing shows that pre-cooling produces the largest reduction in peak electrical load during a simulated four-day heatwave, followed by building adjacency, maximum temperature set point and equipment loads. A combination of all considered factors reduces peak power by 70% and shifts the reduced peak to a later hour. In response to a power outage, the incorporation of architectural factors (roof, wall and window thermal resistance above code minima, increased thermal mass, reduced glazing solar heat gain coefficient and window shading) reduces the time above a Heat Index of 28 °C (caution) in a week-long test period in which the power failure occurs at hour 40 from 119 to 53 h. The presented methodology applies broadly to other building types and to regions affected by very hot weather.

Assessing building thermal resilience in response to heatwaves through integrating a social vulnerability lens

Major cities worldwide are increasingly experiencing intense heatwaves, which disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. This suggests the urgent need for focused attention and mitigation strategies to protect those most at risk from the impacts of heatwaves. The presence of vulnerable groups in buildings with varying thermal conditions can result in different outcomes during extreme heat events, making it crucial to evaluate the thermal resilience of buildings in conjunction with social vulnerability. This research advances the understanding of thermal vulnerability by integrating building thermal characteristics with social vulnerability. While previous studies have predominantly focused on socio-ethnic and economic dimensions of vulnerability, this study specifically investigates the relationship between social vulnerability and thermal resilience, with a focus on building thermal parameters. Datasets from Zillow and ResStock are used to capture the thermal properties of buildings, while social vulnerability data is obtained from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. A Gaussian Naïve Bayes (GNB) model is applied to enhance building envelope attributes from Zillow, leveraging detailed information from ResStock data. Additionally, a Kolmogorov-Smirnov (KS) test is conducted to analyze diverse thermal attributes, such as age of buildings, room size, number of stories, building area, envelope characteristics, systems, infiltration, across differing levels of social vulnerability (high and low). Specifically, Philadelphia is selected as the analysis focus. The analysis reveals significant associations between thermal resilience and social vulnerability. Groups with higher social vulnerability are more likely to be exposed to elevated levels of thermal vulnerability compared to less vulnerable groups. This highlights the necessity for tailored interventions aimed at promoting the development of more resilient and equitable buildings, capable of reducing the impacts of heatwaves on vulnerable communities.

Challenges posed by climate hazards to cardiovascular health and cardiac intensive care: implications for mitigation and adaptation.

Global warming, driven by increased greenhouse gas emissions, has led to unprecedented extreme weather events, contributing to higher morbidity and mortality rates from a variety of health conditions, including cardiovascular disease (CVD). The disruption of multiple planetary boundaries has increased the probability of connected, cascading, and catastrophic disasters with magnified health impacts on vulnerable populations. While the impact of climate change can be manifold, non-optimal air temperatures (NOTs) pose significant health risks from cardiovascular events. Vulnerable populations, especially those with pre-existing CVD, face increased risks of acute cardiovascular events during NOT. Factors such as age, socio-economic status, minority populations, and environmental conditions (especially air pollution) amplify these risks. With rising global surface temperatures, the frequency and intensity of heatwaves and cold spells are expected to increase, emphasizing the need to address their health impacts. The World Health Organization recommends implementing heat-health action plans, which include early warning systems, public education on recognizing heat-related symptoms, and guidelines for adjusting medications during heatwaves. Additionally, intensive care units must be prepared to handle increased patient loads and the specific challenges posed by extreme heat. Comprehensive and proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies with health as a primary consideration and measures to enhance resilience are essential to protect vulnerable populations and reduce the health burden associated with NOTs. The current educational review will explore the impact on cardiovascular events, future health projections, pathophysiology, drug interactions, and intensive care challenges and recommend actions for effective patient care.

How was the impact of heatwaves on daily hospital admissions in Portugal (2000-2018)?

Abstract Background Climate change has increased the frequency, intensity, and duration of heatwaves, posing a serious threat to public health. While the link between high temperatures and premature mortality has been extensively studied, the comprehensive quantification of heatwave impacts on morbidity remains understudied. Methods We assessed the relationship between heatwaves and daily hospital admissions at a county level in Portugal, considering all major diagnostic categories and age groups, over a 19-year period from 2000 to 2018. Our nationwide study included a comprehensive geospatial analysis, integrating over 12 million hospital admission records with heatwave events indexed by the Excess Heat Factor (EHF), covering all 278 mainland counties. To estimate the impact of heatwaves on hospital admissions, we applied negative binomial regression models at both national and county levels. Results A statistically significant overall 18·9% increase in daily hospital admissions was found during heatwave days (IRR=1·189, 95% CI: 1·179-1·198). This impact affected all age groups, with pediatric ages being the most affected (21·7%), followed by the working-age (19·7%) and elderly individuals (17·2%). All 25 Major Disease Diagnostic Categories experienced significant increases, particularly Burns (34·3%), Multiple Significant Trauma (26·8%), and Infectious and Parasitic Diseases (25·4%). Notable rises were also observed in Endocrine, Nutritional, and Metabolic (25·1%), Mental (23%), Respiratory (22·4%), and Circulatory (15·8%) diseases. Conclusions Our results provide statistically significant evidence of the association between heatwaves and increased hospitalizations across all age groups and for all major causes of disease. This is the first study to estimate the full extent of heatwaves’ impact on hospitalizations using the EHF index over a comprehensive 19-year period, encompassing an entire country, and spanning 25 disease categories during multiple heatwave events. Key messages • There is a clear association between heatwaves and increased hospital admissions across all age groups and Major Diagnostic Categories. • Our data offer crucial information to guide policymakers in effectively and efficiently allocating resources to address the profound healthcare consequences resulting from climate change.

Multiple resiliency metrics reveal complementary drivers of ecosystem persistence: An application to kelp forest systems.

Human-caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp-grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency.

Reduced and smaller phytoplankton during marine heatwaves in eastern boundary upwelling systems

Marine heatwaves have attracted great attention for their devastating impacts on marine organisms. However, the influence of marine heatwaves on phytoplankton community structure, a key aspect of pelagic ecosystems, remains elusive, especially in the biologically productive eastern boundary upwelling systems. Here, using a combination of multi-satellite observations and model outputs, we discover that phytoplankton in these upwelling systems exhibit not only a marked reduction in biomass (~50%), but also a significant shift toward smaller species in community structures during marine heatwaves, featuring a substantially increased/decreased dominance in picophytoplankton/microphytoplankton. This change in community structure is positively related to the intensity and duration of marine heatwaves, and is likely a result of community competition under reduced nutrient supply due to weakened coastal upwelling associated with poleward wind anomalies. These findings invite us to rethink the dominance of phytoplankton in the eastern boundary upwelling systems under extreme conditions, and may have important implications for local fisheries and carbon cycle under the ongoing warming.

Crossing the Pacific: Genomics Reveals the Presence of Japanese Sardine (Sardinops melanosticta) in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem.

Recent increases in frequency and intensity of warm water anomalies and marine heatwaves have led to shifts in species ranges and assemblages. Genomic tools can be instrumental in detecting such shifts. In the early stages of a project assessing population genetic structure in Pacific Sardine (Sardinops sagax), we detected the presence of Japanese Sardine (Sardinops melanosticta) along the west coast of North America for the first time. We assembled a high quality, chromosome-scale reference genome of the Pacific Sardine and generated low coverage, whole genome sequence (lcWGS) data for 345 sardine collected in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME) in 2021 and 2022. Fifty individuals sampled in 2022 were identified as Japanese Sardine based on strong differentiation observed in lcWGS SNP and full mitogenome data. Although we detected a single case of mitochondrial introgression, we did not observe evidence for recent hybridization events. These findings change our understanding of Sardinops spp. distribution and dispersal in the Pacific and highlight the importance of long-term monitoring programs.

A century of variability of heatwave-driven streamflow in melt-driven basins and implications under climate change

Abstract Meltwater runoff from snow and glaciers in high mountain regions supports the water needs of hundreds of millions of people, but extreme events such as heatwaves modify the timing and magnitude of water available for downstream communities and ecosystems. The streamflow response to heatwaves depends strongly on heatwave timing and temperature, and the amount of snow and glacier ice available to melt. However, as ongoing climate change continues to alter both seasonal melt patterns and the frequency and intensity of heatwaves, it is not well understood how such streamflow responses will evolve relative to the seasonal cycle of streamflow. We address this knowledge gap by using long-term meteorological and hydrological datasets to characterize spatial and temporal heterogeneity in the streamflow sensitivity to heatwaves at six basins with >80 years of observations in Western Canada. We use years with earlier freshets and less snowfall as proxies of anticipated climate change, and apply a metric to describe how the streamflow sensitivity to heatwaves varies across years with different hydro-climatological characteristics. We find that in future proxy years relative to baseline years, nival streamflow is more sensitive to early spring heatwaves but less sensitive to late spring and summer heatwaves. Relative to baseline years, late spring heatwaves in future proxy years generate a smaller fraction of peak streamflow that is diminished as the freshet progresses. Our findings imply that future heatwave-driven peak flows in spring may be lessened by the diminished streamflow sensitivity to heatwaves in late spring, but this may be partially offset by excess melt during future heatwaves that are longer and hotter.

Influence of the thermal insulation position in standard and cool roofs on their contribution to urban heating during heatwaves

The urban heat island, coupled with increasingly intense, frequent and long heat waves, leads to a significant risk of excess mortality and increased energy requirements in urban areas during the summer season. Various cooling techniques are therefore being studied to moderate the intensity of this phenomenon during the hot season. The aim of this study is to quantify the contribution of roofs to urban climate during heatwaves, depending on the position of the insulation in the structure and its radiative properties. This study is carried out in the laboratory, using an experimental set-up to submit roof samples to heatwave conditions. The experimental set up includes a temperature and humidity-controlled climate chamber with a solar simulator. Two roofing configurations are studied: roofs with external thermal insulation (ETI) and roofs with internal thermal insulation. Each configuration is studied for two types of roof: standard (low albedo), and reflective (high albedo). It appears that ETI roofs heat the outside air during the day, but not at night. While ITI roofs heat the ambient air less during the day, they release some of the stored daytime heat during the night. Whatever the structure, increasing solar reflectivity significantly reduces the contribution of roofs to urban heating, although the impact is stronger for internally-insulated roofs, since it reduces the amount of heat released. Finally, for the externally insulated structure, the increase in solar reflectivity reduces daytime convective exchange by 41% and heat entering the building by 75%. For the internally insulated structure, daytime convective heat exchange is reduced by 43%, and the heat stored in the concrete layer is reduced by over 50%.

Nature-based cool pavements for urban overheating mitigation: Experimental proof of concept

Global warming is leading to more frequent and intense heat waves, transforming urban areas into inhospitable environments, particularly during the summer, due to the exacerbation of the urban overheating effect. Outdoor pavements, which account for 20–40 % of urban surfaces, play a crucial role in this phenomenon due to their dark colour and low albedo, resulting in high surface temperatures and the accumulation of thermal energy released into the environment. This study introduces a nature-based solution to mitigate the impact of urban overheating by cooling outdoor pavements using water from existing fountains or ponds in cities. The water functions as a coolant, significantly reducing the surface temperature of the pavement by up to 25 °C compared to dry samples exposed to the sun. The innovative aspect of this concept lies in the fact that the pavements do not exhibit capillarity, thereby achieving sensible cooling without evaporation and subsequent water consumption. The concept's impact is examined by considering pavements of varying thicknesses and albedos. In the conducted experiments, water-cooled pavements 100 % eliminated the risk of overheating compared to air temperature. This strategy offers an effective and sustainable approach to counteract the adverse effects of urban overheating in cities.

Manifold increase in the spatial extent of heatwaves in the terrestrial Arctic

It is widely acknowledged that the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves are increasing worldwide, including the Arctic. However, less attention has been paid to the land area affected by heatwaves. Here, using atmospheric reanalysis and global climate models, we show that the area covered by heatwaves is substantially expanding in the terrestrial Arctic. Compared to the mid-20th century, the total land area affected by severe heatwaves in the Arctic has doubled, the area of extreme heatwaves has tripled, and the area of very extreme heatwaves has quadrupled. Furthermore, climate model projections suggest that the extent of heatwaves will continue to increase in the 21st century, but with large regional differences in heatwave magnitudes due to summer intraseasonal temperature variability. Our findings underscore the growing vulnerability of the Arctic region to extreme heat, potentially leading to severe impacts on both ecosystems and societies.

Exceptional heatwaves and mortality in Europe: Greater impacts since the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak

Record-breaking hot weather (exceptional heatwaves) has been increasingly common worldwide, posing a significant threat to human health. However, little is known about the effect of these exceptional heatwaves on mortality in Europe, especially since the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, which converges with climate change to affect healthcare systems and human lives. We collected mortality data of 967 regions in 30 European countries over the last decade (2014–2023) from the Eurostat. A standard time-series analysis was used to estimate the effect of exceptional heatwaves by quasi-Poisson regression model, including the main effect (effect from heatwave intensity) and the added effect (effect from heatwave duration), on mortality for each region during two periods (before and since the COVID-19 outbreak). We used random effects meta-analysis to pool the mortality risk (i.e., relative risk [RR]) and burden (i.e., attributable fraction [AF]) associated with exceptional heatwaves, at the country level and for Europe as a whole. In Europe, the mortality burden attributable to main and added effects increased from 0.492% (95% CI: 0.488%–0.496%) to 1.276% (95% CI: 1.266%–1.285%) and from 0.307% (95% CI: 0.294%–0.318%) to 0.428% (95% CI: 0.407%–0.448%), respectively. Furthermore, substantial variations across countries were observed, with some countries such as France and Spain experiencing a large increase in the mortality burden attributable to exceptional heatwaves since the COVID-19 outbreak. Our findings underscore the urgent need for heat-health actions to consider the multi-effects of exceptional heatwaves amidst a warming climate.

Characteristics and drivers of marine heatwaves in the western South Atlantic

Marine heatwaves are events of extreme warming in the ocean and have devastating consequences for marine life. Here we used a K-mean clustering analysis to detect different types of marine heatwaves along the South American coast from 10°S to 45°S and identify their remote drivers. In the central part of the domain, marine heatwaves are associated with atmospheric blocking caused by wave trains triggered by the Madden-Julian Oscillation. On the other hand, marine heatwaves occurring along the northern and southern coast of South America are associated with El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. The intensity and duration of these marine heatwaves are modulated by the development phase and intensity of the Niño and Niña events. By identifying the climatic modes of variability leading to each type of marine heatwaves, our study can help develop adaptation strategies, such as early warning systems, to prevent the devastating effects of marine heatwaves.

150-year daily data (1870–2021) in lakes and rivers reveals intensifying surface water warming and heatwaves in the Pannonian Ecoregion (Hungary)

Study regionPannonian Ecoregion, Hungary. Study focusBridging the gap between atmospheric influences and aquatic environments, this study embarked on a comprehensive reconstruction of daily surface water temperatures across lakes and rivers within the Pannonian Ecoregion over an extensive period of 150 years (1870–2021). New hydrological insights for the regionThe analysis revealed a clear warming trend in waters over the past 150 years, and majority of this warming occurred in recent three to four decades (average warming rate: 0.317 °C/decade). Seasonal patterns indicated that winter and spring exhibited faster warming rates, followed by autumn and summer. There has been a significant increase in the number, duration, and intensity of heatwaves in both lakes and rivers, particularly pronounced in the last 30–40 years, and with the rise of air temperatures, river and lake heatwaves tend to intensity. These findings underscore the escalating impact of climate change on freshwater systems in the Pannonian Ecoregion, emphasizing the urgent need for mitigation measures. As the first study on river and lake heatwaves in Hungary and one of the few studies on river heatwaves worldwide, this study will provide reference for analysing extreme thermal events in aquatic systems.

Projected changes in mean climate and extremes from downscaled high-resolution CMIP6 simulations in Australia

High-resolution climate change projections are required to understand local and regional climate change impacts. We used CCAM (Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model) to dynamically downscale CMIP6 GCMs (Global Climate Models) over Australia under three emissions scenarios, producing a set of 60 simulations at a 10 km resolution. Previous work has evaluated the performance of the downscaled models in the historical period. Here, we evaluate the impact of end-of-century climate change in the downscaled CMIP6-CCAM models for mean and extreme climate under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP126, 245 and 370). We find the changes in mean climate are similar in the host CMIP6 and downscaled models. For extreme temperature, we find that extreme maximum temperatures (TXx) increase by 3.4°C, while extreme minimum temperatures (TNn) warm by 3.0°C. Extreme precipitation generally increases in summer and decreases in winter; however, there is a large amount of inter-model variation in the location and magnitude of change. Consecutive dry days also decrease in most areas in Austral summer and increase in Austral winter. Heatwaves become more frequent and hotter by the end of the century. These results suggest a hotter, wetter Austral summer, with longer, more frequent and more intense heatwaves, and a hotter and drier Austral winter in most areas. This dataset provides useful new high-resolution information on how climate change is likely to impact Australia, which will be a valuable resource to underpin local adaptation responses to future impacts.