Hazardous Weather Events Research Articles

Time-evolving traffic resilience performance forecasting during hazardous weather toward proactive intervention

Transportation systems experience significant disruptions and loss during hazardous weather events, exhibiting great needs of timely intervention to effectively improve the resilience of the affected traffic systems. An informed and science-based proactive intervention strategy depends on accurate forecasting of the resilience performance of traffic systems with essential lead time during hazards. A new resilience performance forecasting methodology at both global and local scales is proposed for traffic networks under natural hazards by addressing unique challenges such as scarcity and time-evolving nature of hazard-specific data. The proposed methodology consists of two modules: the local traffic resilience performance short-term forecasting module based on the modified diffusion convolutional recurrent neural network (DCRNN) and transfer learning techniques, and the global traffic resilience performance forecasting module integrating percolation-based robustness assessment and SIR-based congestion propagation modeling. A case study of an urban traffic network during a major snowstorm hazard is conducted as a demonstration, followed by the feasibility investigation to guide proactive intervention during hazards. It is found the proposed methodology can forecast the time-evolving traffic resilience performance with good accuracy at both global and local scales. With sufficient lead time for the forecast, it bears promising potential to assist the stakeholders to make informed and timely decision about possible proactive intervention by providing key information to help identify the optimal moments and individual strategic links for possible intervention.

Hazardous weather events and atmospheric monitoring using satellite navigation systems

Hazardous weather events and atmospheric monitoring using satellite navigation systems

U.S. military installations and extreme weather: an Oklahoma case study on preparation

ABSTRACT The readiness and execution of national security missions by The United States Department of Defense (DoD) hinges on military installations being equipped with infrastructure that can support the actions needed to protect the U.S., including extreme weather responses. Extreme weather threatens human lives, property, and military operations nationally. Thus, it is paramount to mitigate these impacts and improve preparedness. Oklahoma is home to five federal military installations, all of which are susceptible to hazardous weather, such as severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and flooding. At a local level, hazardous weather events can be quite costly in a variety of ways, including disrupting operations, causing economic losses, and leading to injuries. This case study examines the preparedness and impacts of extreme weather events as well as climate change considerations at two Oklahoma military installations (Tinker Air Force Base and Fort Sill). Interviews and a focus group revealed weather-related decisions at these installations were unit-specific and dependent on the weather event. These installations have both short- and long-term preparedness plans for different weather scenarios. The impacts of these weather events ranged from delays/cancellations of training to installation closures. Lastly, climate considerations from DoD have been, and continue to be, included in planning. This study highlights the nuances across different military installations as a function of their differing roles; there is not a ‘one size fits all’ preparedness plan that will work across the board. Further, there is much room to improve military-civilian collaboration to mitigate the effects of extreme weather events and climate change on military installations and their operations.

EXTREME WEATHER AND HEALTH AMONG OLDER POPULATIONS: INDIVIDUAL AND CONTEXTUAL-LEVEL VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE

Abstract Intense, frequent extreme weather events pose a significant public health threat, particularly for middle-aged and older adults who may be at elevated health risk. Yet, the social and environmental factors that determine their vulnerability and resilience remain largely unexplored. This study investigates individual and contextual determinants associated with exposure to and the health effects of extreme weather. Data were from the 2021 California Health Interview Survey of adults aged 50+ (N=14,726). Respondents were asked whether they had experienced any hazardous weather events such as heat waves, floods, and wildfires in the past two years and whether mental or physical health was harmed by these events. About 53% were exposed to extreme weather events. Among the exposed group, 18% and 17% reported harm to mental and physical health, respectively. Logistic regression analysis revealed increased exposure risk among middle-aged adults (age 50-64), those with chronic conditions, people living alone, and residents of rural and unsafe neighborhoods. Similarly, mental and physical health harms were more prevalent among these groups, along with females and those with unstable housing conditions. Conversely, living in cohesive neighborhoods was identified as a resilient factor, associated with reduced mental (OR=0.78, p< 0.05) and physical health risks (OR=0.70, p< 0.01). This study reveals pronounced vulnerabilities to climate change risks among populations identified as socioeconomically disadvantaged. Moreover, the findings emphasize the role of contextual conditions in shaping vulnerability and resilience. Our study contributes valuable insights to develop targeted climate change mitigation strategies, fostering resilience among older populations and supportive communities.

Climatological occurrences of hail and tornadoes associated with mesoscale convective systems in the United States

Abstract. Hail and tornadoes are hazardous weather events responsible for significant property damage and economic loss worldwide. The most devastating occurrences of hail and tornadoes are commonly produced by supercells in the United States. However, these supercells may also grow upscale into mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) or be embedded within them. The relationship between hail and tornado occurrences with MCSs in the long-term climatology has not been thoroughly examined. In this study, radar features associated with MCSs are extracted from a 14-year MCS tracking database across the contiguous United States, and hazard reports are mapped to these MCS features. We investigate the characteristics of hail and tornadoes in relation to MCSs, considering seasonal and regional variabilities. On average, 8 %–17 % of hail events and 17 %–32 % of tornado events are associated with MCSs, depending on the criteria used to define MCSs. The highest total and MCS-associated hazard events occur from March to May, while the highest MCS-associated portion (23 % for hail and 45 % for tornadoes) is observed in winter (December–February) due to the dominance of MCSs caused by strong synoptic forcing. As hailstone size increases, the fraction associated with MCS decreases, but there is an increasing trend for tornado severity from EF0 to EF3 (Enhanced Fujita Scale). Violent tornadoes at EF4 and EF5 associated with MCSs were also observed, which are generated by supercells embedded within MCSs.

Winter Storm Activity across Canada at the End of the Century: A CMIP5 Multi-model Projection

ABSTRACT Extratropical cyclones are the main source of precipitation in most of Canada. They bring hazardous weather events like blizzards, heavy snow, freezing rain, etc. They also supply fresh water through spring snow melt and maintain the soil and surface water balance in sub-humid and semi-arid regions. Any future changes in extratropical cyclone activity over Canada may have a significant impact on agriculture and the local economies of the various regions. Future changes in regional storm activity over Canada have not been studied in detail. Therefore, we examined potential changes in extratropical storm activity by the end of the century using data from six models from CMIP5 under historical and future (RCP 8.5) emission scenarios. A statistical analysis of selected storm activity indices, using a storm identification and tracking algorithm, revealed a decrease in the number of storms over the mid-latitude regions of Canada. However, intense storms with a longer duration are projected over all regions at the end of the century. A further investigation of the physical mechanisms revealed that a decrease in the meridional temperature gradient over the mid-latitude regions and shifting of the vertical wind shear are responsible for these expected changes in storm activity.

Метод снижения рисков в сельском хозяйстве, связанных с засухами, с учетом вероятности их появления

The increase in mean and extreme temperatures against the background of almost unchanged precipitation in the south of the European territory of Russia (ETR) leads to a number of changes affecting agricultural production. The combination of such unfavorable environmental factors as high temperature and water shortage can have a relatively short-term, but strong impact on the crop industry with long-term consequences. It is expected that, taking into account current trends in climate change, the foothill and plane zones in the south of the ETR will be in an arid zone. Thus water scarcity has been and remains a critical factor in determining crop production in the region. The paper discusses the mechanisms of the impact of climate change on agriculture. It is noted that the relevance of developing effective and cost-effective for practical use methods to reduce risks in this industry associated with extreme weather events, including droughts, is increasing and becoming an essential condition for ensuring the country's food security. The features of information support of the problem of developing models for reducing risks associated with droughts are noted. A method for reducing agricultural losses associated with this weather event is outlined. It is based on exploiting the different vulnerabilities of crops by hazardous weather events. The possibilities of practical use of the method under conditions of climate change are touched upon, and the main tasks arising along this path are discussed. The results of model calculations, which were carried out in order to study the effectiveness of the method, are presented. It is noted that, on the basis of the proposed approach, flexible and quickly responding to changes in the conditions for the functioning of agriculture, systems can be created to reduce the loss of agriculture from adverse weather events.

Skill improvement of the yearly updated reforecasts in ECMWF S2S prediction from 2016 to 2022

Hazardous weather events are often accompanied by subseasonal processes, but the forecast skills of subseasonal prediction are still limited. To assess the skill improvement of the constantly updated model version in ECMWF subseasonal-seasonal (S2S) prediction from 2016 to 2022, the performance of yearly updated reforecasts was evaluated against ERA5 reanalysis data using the temporal anomaly correlation coefficient (TCC) as a metric. The newly updated reforecasts exhibit stable superiority at the weather scale of the first two weeks, regardless of whether the 2-m temperature or precipitation forecast is being considered. At the subseasonal time scale starting from the third week, some slight improvements in prediction skills are only found in several tropical regions. Generally, the week-3 TCC values averaged over global land grids still reflect an advancement in prediction skills for updated reforecasts. For the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), reforecasts can reproduce the characteristics of eastward propagation, but there are deviations in the intensity and propagation range of convection anomalies for reforecasts of all seven years. Based on an evaluation of MJO prediction skill using the bivariate anomaly correlation coefficient and bivariate root-mean-square error, some differences are apparent in the MJO prediction skills among the updated reforecasts, but the improvements do not increase monotonically year by year. Despite the inherent limitation of S2S prediction, positive progress has already been achieved via the constantly updated S2S prediction in ECMWF, which reinforces the confidence in further collaboratively improving S2S prediction in the future.摘要在2016年至2022年间, ECMWF次季节预测系统不断升级并逐年完成新的回报试验. 本文考察该预测系统逐年升级带来的预测技巧提升潜力. 从2米气温和降水来看, 在起报之后的前两周内天气尺度上预测技巧表现出逐年稳定提升的趋势; 在从第三周开始的次季节时间尺度上, 预测技巧的提升仅限于热带部分区域. MJO预测技巧并不随着模式升级而逐年单调提升. 尽管目前S2S预测技巧存在局限性, 但目前已有的进展增强了在未来深入合作以提高S2S预测技术的信心.

Advancing Weather and Climate Forecasting for Our Changing World

Abstract Our world is rapidly changing. Societies are facing an increase in the frequency and intensity of high-impact and extreme weather and climate events. These extremes together with exponential population growth and demographic shifts (e.g., urbanization, increase in coastal populations) are increasing the detrimental societal and economic impact of hazardous weather and climate events. Urbanization and our changing global economy have also increased the need for accurate projections of climate change and improved predictions of disruptive and potentially beneficial weather events on kilometer scales. Technological innovations are also leading to an evolving and growing role of the private sector in the weather and climate enterprise. This article discusses the challenges faced in accelerating advances in weather and climate forecasting and proposes a vision for key actions needed across the private, public, and academic sectors. Actions span (i) utilizing the new observational and computing ecosystems; (ii) strategies to advance Earth system models; (iii) ways to benefit from the growing role of artificial intelligence; (iv) practices to improve the communication of forecast information and decision support in our age of internet and social media; and (v) addressing the need to reduce the relatively large, detrimental impacts of weather and climate on all nations and especially on low-income nations. These actions will be based on a model of improved cooperation between the public, private, and academic sectors. This article represents a concise summary of the white paper on the Future of Weather and Climate Forecasting (2021) put together by the World Meteorological Organizations’ Open Consultative Platform.

Observational Study of Wind Velocity and Structures during Supertyphoons and Convective Gales over Land Based on a 356-m-High Meteorological Gradient Tower

Abstract Supertyphoons (STs) and strong convection gales (SCGs) are extremely hazardous weather events over land. Knowledge of their processes is crucial for various applications, such as intensity forecasts of gales and the design of high-rise construction and infrastructure. Here, an observational analysis of two strong SCGs and two STs is presented based on data from the Shenzhen meteorological gradient tower, the tallest in Asia. Differences in the intrinsic physical characteristics measured at each event can be associated with different disaster-causing mechanisms. Wind speeds during STs are comparatively much larger but feature slower variations, while those of SCGs are more abrupt. Unlike that observed during STs, the vertical distribution of wind speeds during SCGs obeys a power law or exponential distribution only within 1-h maximum wind speed windows. In comparison with a Gaussian distribution, a generalized extreme value distribution can better characterize the statistical characteristics of the gusts of both STs and SCGs events. Deviations from Kolmogorov’s −5/3 power law were observed in the energy spectra of both phenomena at upper levels, albeit with differences. Different from what is seen in the ST energy spectrum distribution, a clear process of energy increase and decrease could be seen in SCGs during gale evolution. Nonetheless, both SCGs and STs exhibited a high downward transfer of turbulent momentum flux at a 320 m height, which could be attributed to the pulsation of the gusts rather than to the large-scale base flow. Significance Statement Strong gales induced by typhoons and severe convection have potential serious impacts on human society. The current study compares and analyzes the characteristics of the gales induced by the two different weather systems using the data observed by a 356-m-tall tower in South China. This paper also shows the relationship between gusts of the near-surface wind and the turbulent momentum fluxes, thus suggesting a possible mechanism leading to destructive forces in surface winds. In terms of social value, this study would contribute to increase the awareness of gales (the instantaneous wind speed over 17 m s−1) and improve the prediction and prevention of different types of gales, as well as the wind-resistant design of high-rise buildings.

Adaptive Blending of Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts with Emphasis on Calibration and Temporal Forecast Consistency

Abstract A wealth of forecasting models is available for operational weather forecasting. Their strengths often depend on the lead time considered, which generates the need for a seamless combination of different forecast methods. The combined and continuous products are made in order to retain or even enhance the forecast quality of the individual forecasts and to extend the lead time to potentially hazardous weather events. In this study, we further improve an artificial neural network–based combination model that was recently proposed in a previous paper. This model combines two initial precipitation ensemble forecasts and produces exceedance probabilities for a set of thresholds for hourly precipitation amounts. Both initial forecasts perform differently well for different lead times, whereas the combined forecast is calibrated and outperforms both initial forecasts with respect to various validation scores and for all considered lead times (from +1 to +6 h). Moreover, the robustness of the combination model is tested by applying it to a new dataset and by evaluating the spatial and temporal consistency of its forecasts. The changes proposed further improve the forecast quality and make it more useful for practical applications. Temporal consistency of the combined product is evaluated using a flip-flop index. It is shown that the combination provides a higher persistence with decreasing lead times compared to both input systems.

Object-Oriented Estimation of the Short-Term Forecast of Convective Hazardous Weather Events in Perm Krai by the WRF Model

Object-Oriented Estimation of the Short-Term Forecast of Convective Hazardous Weather Events in Perm Krai by the WRF Model

Concerning prognostic estimations on hazardous weather events: a road to nowhere or to home?

Changes of local climate dynamics influence on the demand of fuel-energy facilities and on the choice of priorities of the most promising technological processes of production and transportation of fuel-energy resources. The corresponding adjustment is quite inertial, so, it is a point of the long-term strategy of development of a fuel and energy complex. Meantime, manipulations of a public opinion regarding the climate change problems occurs due to an audience prefers to remain within habitual empirical considerations and to listen to bright media talkers skillfully juggling various futuristic conclusions about the climate instead of accurate-but-tedious scientific proofs demanding sufficient interdisciplinary training and careful verifications by real physical data. The paper cautions about extremely dangerous harvests of unexampled climate-related damages that are grown soon on such fruitful populist fields. The paper notes substitutions of purposes by tools and demonstrates in what extent traditional estimations on climate-related hazards can be far from the real ones because of many potentialities of local climate changes are originally latent from the scope of the dominating concept on “averaging” climate norms. The paper will be interesting to responsible researchers, practitioners and citizenry oriented to efficient work to hold back from the transition towards the destructive-for-human-activities novel global climate.

Fatal Weather-Related Carbon Monoxide Poisonings in the United States

Abstract Carbon monoxide (CO) is a colorless, odorless gas that can cause injury or death if inhaled. CO is a frequent secondary hazard induced by the aftereffects of natural hazards as individuals, families, and communities often seek alternative power sources for heating, cooking, lighting, and cleanup during the emergency and recovery phases of a disaster. These alternative power sources—such as portable generators, petroleum-based heaters, and vehicles—exhaust CO that can ultimately build to toxic levels in enclosed areas. Ever-increasing environmental and societal changes combined with an aging infrastructure are growing the odds of power failures during hazardous weather events, which, in turn, are increasing the likelihood of CO exposure, illness, and death. This study analyzed weather-related CO fatalities from 2000 to 2019 in the United States using death-certificate data, providing one of the longest assessments of this mortality. Results reveal that over 8300 CO fatalities occurred in the United States during the 20-yr study period, with 17% of those deaths affiliated with weather perils. Cool-season perils such as ice storms, snowstorms, and extreme cold were the leading hazards that led to situations causing CO fatalities. States in the Southeast and Northeast had the highest CO fatality rates, with winter having the greatest seasonal mortality. In general, these preventable CO poisoning influxes are related to a deficiency of knowledge on generator safety and the absence of working detectors and alarms in the enclosed locations where poisonings occur. Education and prevention programs that target the most vulnerable populations will help prevent future weather-related CO fatalities. Significance Statement Carbon monoxide exposure is common after weather disasters when individuals, families, and communities seek alternative power sources—such as portable generators, petroleum-based heaters, and vehicles—that exhaust this deadly, colorless, and odorless gas. Initially, we catalog carbon monoxide fatalities associated with weather events in the United States over two decades; thereafter, we illustrate the characteristics and patterns affiliated with these deaths. Results will assist public officials, first responders, and individuals in their decision-making and response before, during, and after weather events so that these deaths may be prevented in the future.

Risks to the Health of Russian Population from Floods and Droughts in 2010–2020: A Scoping Review

Climate change and natural disasters caused by hydrological, meteorological, and climatic causes have a significant and increasing direct and indirect impact on human health, leading to increased mortality and morbidity. Russia is a country that suffers from frequent climatic and weather disasters. This is mainly due to its vast territory, complex geographical and ecological environment, and widely varying climatic conditions. This review provides information on climatological and hydrological extremes in Russia in 2010–2020, floods and droughts, and their impact on the health and well-being of the country’s population. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, Scopus, and e-Library, focusing on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English and in Russian from 2010 to 2021. Four conceptual categories were used: “floods”, “droughts”, “human health”, and “Russia”. It is concluded that while most hazardous weather events cannot be completely avoided, many health impacts can potentially be prevented. The recommended measures include early warning systems and public health preparedness and response measures, building climate resilient health systems and other management structures.

Object-oriented assessment of short-term forecast of convective hazardous weather events with the WRF model in Perm region

Object-oriented assessment of short-term forecast of convective hazardous weather events with the WRF model in Perm region

Mathematical Modelling of Climate Change and Variability in the Context of Outdoor Ergonomics

The current climate change, unlike previous ones, is caused by human activity and is characterized by an unprecedented rate of increase in the near-surface temperature and an increase in the frequency and intensity of hazardous weather and climate events. To survive, society must be prepared to implement adaptation strategies and measures to mitigate the negative effects of climate change. This requires, first of all, knowledge of how the climate will change in the future. To date, mathematical modelling remains the only method and effective tool that is used to predict the climate system’s evolution under the influence of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. It is important that mathematics and its methods and approaches have played a vital role in climate research for several decades. In this study, we examined some mathematical methods and approaches, primarily, mathematical modelling and sensitivity analysis, for studying the Earth’s climate system, taking into account the dependence of human health on environmental conditions. The essential features of stochastic climate models and their application for the exploration of climate variability are examined in detail. As an illustrative example, we looked at the application of a low-order energy balance model to study climate variability. The effects of variations in feedbacks and the climate system’s inertia on the power spectrum of global mean surface temperature fluctuations that characterized the distribution of temperature variance over frequencies were estimated using a sensitivity analysis approach. Our confidence in the obtained results was based on the satisfactory agreement between the theoretical power spectrum that was derived from the energy balance model and the power spectrum that was obtained from observations and coupled climate models, including historical runs of the CMIP5 models.

IMPORTANCE OF ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND CHALLENGES OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGING IN SOUTH ASIA

Environmental damages are the main causes responsible for climate changes all over the world. It is considered as the mother of hazardous weather events in recent years. Obviously, it did not happen all of sudden but is a long-time negligence towards nature in the name of development, ironically by the scientifically advanced nations; not perceiving that this will become a global phenomenon. Like everywhere, the core cause in South Asia is also greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide which are increasing remitted in the air through rapid industrialization, including industrial waste. Both India, and Pakistan are the major contributors of these gases, causing rise in temperature, melting of glaciers, changing rain patterns, seal level rise and increase in cyclones and floods. Only the experts of Environmental Science can understand the problems and can find solutions to these atrocities. These issues must be assessed and investigated on regional basis and find solutions considering local socio-economic conditions and situations on the ground. The study is a qualitative document analysis of the past published literature related to the theme. In which the main objective is to highlight the importance of environment and understand the challenges accruing in South Asian Region.

Formation Conditions and Short-Term Forecast of Convective Hazardous Weather Events in the Ural Region in the Warm Period of 2020

Formation Conditions and Short-Term Forecast of Convective Hazardous Weather Events in the Ural Region in the Warm Period of 2020

Способ прогнозирования зон обледенения воздушных судов на основе радиометрических измерений параметров атмосферы

Icing is a potentially hazardous weather events for aviation. Aircraft icing, as a rule, occurs as a result of the formation of ice on its surface at negative temperatures and high air humidity. Automated nowcasting system “Neva” implements a method for predicting aircraft icing zones based on radiometric measurements of atmospheric parameters. The results of nowcasting of icing zones in the area of the St. Petersburg airfield (Pulkovo) at heights up to 1 kilometer on the basis of remote measurements are presented. The accuracy of forecasting was verified using information on the actual icing cases according to the data of the aerodrome weather service, as well as the data of radio sounding at the Voeikovo aerological station. The high accuracy of forecasts and the icing warning rate are shown, as well as good agreement of the nowcating results with the Godske method generally used in operational practice. Evaluation of the quality of nowcasting shows to the prospects of using the automated system “Neva” for predicting aircraft icing zones on the base of radiometric measurements of atmospheric parameters. The forecasts obtained for the period from October 2018 to March 2020 in the Pulkovo airfield area feature high accuracy and warning rate, and the results largely coincide with the generally used method for forecasting aircraft icing zones (Godske method).