Способ прогнозирования зон обледенения воздушных судов на основе радиометрических измерений параметров атмосферы

Abstract

Icing is a potentially hazardous weather events for aviation. Aircraft icing, as a rule, occurs as a result of the formation of ice on its surface at negative temperatures and high air humidity. Automated nowcasting system “Neva” implements a method for predicting aircraft icing zones based on radiometric measurements of atmospheric parameters. The results of nowcasting of icing zones in the area of the St. Petersburg airfield (Pulkovo) at heights up to 1 kilometer on the basis of remote measurements are presented. The accuracy of forecasting was verified using information on the actual icing cases according to the data of the aerodrome weather service, as well as the data of radio sounding at the Voeikovo aerological station. The high accuracy of forecasts and the icing warning rate are shown, as well as good agreement of the nowcating results with the Godske method generally used in operational practice. Evaluation of the quality of nowcasting shows to the prospects of using the automated system “Neva” for predicting aircraft icing zones on the base of radiometric measurements of atmospheric parameters. The forecasts obtained for the period from October 2018 to March 2020 in the Pulkovo airfield area feature high accuracy and warning rate, and the results largely coincide with the generally used method for forecasting aircraft icing zones (Godske method).